MLB

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/8

Monday only has seven games to offer us and this might be among the worst pitching slates on the season. It says a lot that there is only one pitcher out of the 14 that is over $9,000 on DK and only four are over $8,000. That’s going to make life difficult but let’s see what we can find in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/8!

Ace

Chris Bassitt 

I suspect that Bassitt will be very, very popular tonight as he is the lone “ace” by the salary requirements and he’s at home against the Reds. The matchup is likely to work in his favor because the Reds should play four lefties at most and the quality of those lefties is questionable. Bassitt has had his way with the right side of the plate with a .252 wOBA, a 23.6% K rate, a 0.97 WHP, and a 3.21 xFIP. While his sinker is the most used pitch, the slider and four-seam are second and third against the right side and those two pitches have 66 strikeouts on the season while the slider has a 32.9% whiff rate to lead the pack for Bassitt. He’s also been better at home with a 3.06 ERA compared to 4.24 on the road and his K rate jumps up to almost 27%. With the Reds being in the bottom 10 in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to go along with a 24% K rate, Bassitt might be so popular that we can consider a fade in GPP but I’m betting we need him for cash. 

Mid-Range 

Blake Snell

At least on DK, I’d be pretty surprised if Bassitt and Snell aren’t the runaway chalk pair because Snell is still under $9,000 despite destroying five of his past six starts. He had been unlucky pretty much the whole season but things started to even out once the calendar flipped to July. Since then, the ERA has been under 2.70, the wOBA is under .280, the K rate is over 37%, and the FIP/xFIP combo dipped under 3.00. The walk rate is still high but you almost don’t care with the rest of his profile right now. The matchup isn’t easy by the seasonal metrics since the Giants are in the top 10 in our categories when facing a lefty but that didn’t matter last time for SnellZilla. He whiffed 11 hitters through six innings and allowed just one run and his slider and curve are evil this year. They both have a whiff rate over 42.5%, wOBA’s under .175, and 56 strikeouts. The four-seam does have a .414 wOBA which is not ideal, but he’s been much better with it lately. 

Zac Gallen 

The Bucs are heading West in the middle of a 10-game road trip and even though Spenser Watkins fell apart yesterday, Gallen is of a higher quality. He has a 23.3% K rate and a ground ball rate of 40% on the nose to go along with a 0.89 HR/9 to this juncture. I don’t love the fact that he’s still sitting at a 9.2% swinging-strike rate and the fastball is being used an awful lot at 48.1%. While it does have 50 strikeouts, it does have a .295 wOBA but the good news here is the Pittsburgh offense ranks 28th against the fastball. It also makes sense for Gallen as far as the splits go since the left side struggles more with him with a .248 wOBA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 3.57 xFIP. It feels like Pittsburgh has been a thorn n pitcher’s sides lately but even over the last 14 days, they are in the bottom five of wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and OBP with a K rate just a bit under 24%. 

Honorable Mention 

I truthfully hate playing Jameson Taillon and this is the second straight Mariners start. That is a common theme on this slate but for Taillon, the K rate is 20.8% with a 3.81 xFIP but his swinging-strike rate is under 10%. He’s been worse on the road with an ERA over 4.45 and the K rate is under 18%, so there’s not a large path to success here. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA of at least .298 and the left side gets to him more, so I would much prefer Gallen. 

Punt Range

Keegan Thompson 

Overall, the profile for Thompson is not that special and it’s scary to see that the xFIP of 4.30 is basically a run higher than his 3.48 ERA. He does have a K rate of 21.2% and the fly-ball rate is dead even with the ground ball rate at 40.1%. That has helped him succeed in Wrigley Field so far this year because through 57.2 IP, he has a 2.50 ERA, a .280 wOBA (righties and lefties are dead even), and a 3.77 xFIP, a WHIP of just 1.13, and the K rate jumps to almost 25%. His cutter, curve, and change all have a whiff rate of at least 24% but the four-seam still has the most strikeouts at 41%. Against a lineup that should struggle to put up a ton of production, this makes sense on this style of slate. 

Honorable Mention 

There’s no real way to possibly trust Jose Suarez with a 4.49 xFIP and a 40% fly-ball rate but he does at least have a 21.5% K rate and he does face the A’s. However, he just faced this team and I’m skeptical if he can navigate the lineup again but they do only have one-hitter with a wOBA over .350 against lefties this year. I would prefer him in 20-max or more with the instability baked in. 

Missed The Cut 

Logan Gilbert – He does get them at home but a second straight start seeing the Yankees is not a great idea, not to mention the first one went extremely poorly. 

Jordan Lyles – In theory, this is not a bad play by the splits. Lyles is much better at home as far as the ERA goes at 2.68 but his K rate goes down to 17.2% and the xFIP is actually higher at home (4.71) than it is on the road (4.25). The right side has been way worse with a .265 wOBA and a 2.23 FIP but even then, the xFIP is still 4.23 and these are pretty good righties. 

Yusei Kikuchi – He could be popular but I’m out on him if he’s chalky as he has a 5.50 FIP, a 4.36 xFIP, a walk rate of 13%, and he likely can’t go past 85 pitches. Now, if he’s not popular maybe he’s worth a shot because Baltimore does have a 25.4% K rate and Kikuchi is at 25% himself. Still, it’s beyond impossible to have any faith in him and he has gotten smacked by righties with a .380 wOBA, a 2.03 HR/9, and a 1.66 WHIP. 

Stacks 

Mets 

Cubs 

Padres 

Yankees 

A’s (for savings)

Orioles

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/6

We’ve got 10 games tonight, a bit of a rare Saturday slate. While we do miss out on a couple of the big-name studs in the afternoon but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some very intriguing options available. Let’s find out who we like and who can lead us to green in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/6! 

Aces

Max Scherzer

David Peterson was listed at one point last night but now it’s Mad Max and that changes everything on the slate. He’s themes appealing option tonight as the Braves should be righty-heavy (only three lefties last night) and Atlanta remains one of just three teams with a K rate over 25% on the season. When Scherzer faces a righty hitter, he’s been very difficult to hit with a .228 wOBA, a K rate over 32%, a 1.23 FIP, a 0.19 HR/9, and a 2.73 xFIP. The slider is one of his most effective pitches with a 50.3% whiff rate and a .143 wOBA allowed and every single one of the 283 he’s thrown have been against a righty hitter. Atlanta reminds us last night they are dangerous, but the Mets need to bounce-back after a rough loss last night and I think Mad Max puts the foot down tonight.

Carlos Rodon 

He’s certainly been frustrating to use lately, but Rodon is in an excellent spot against the Oakland offense. When they face a lefty, they are 26th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, 25th in ISO, 28th in OPS, and 28th in OBP. Now, the K rate isn’t horrific at just 22.3% but with the ineptitude of the rest of the offense, I’m not sure that matters that much. It’s not going to help them that they rank 28th when facing a fastball or dead last when facing a slider because those pitches make up roughly 93% of the arsenal for Rodon and they have whiff rates over 26%. While each pitch is still a little worse than 2021, the wOBA’s allowed are still under .285 and they have 153 strikeouts. Rodon still has a K ate just under 32% and a WHIP under 1.10 to go along with a 14.2% swinging-strike rate. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA under .265 and the xFIP is under 3.30 against each side. He’s had bouts of inconsistency, but there s nothing from any metric that suggests he should have issues here and I’m in. 

Merrill Kelly 

I get a little freaked out with Kelly at the $9,000 threshold but he has averaged over 21 DK points in his last 10 starts so it’s not that outrageous of a salary. His 20.7% K rate is pedestrian for this salary but he was on some kind of heater in July over 41.1 IP with a 1.31 ERA, a .213 wOBA, and a 0.77 WHIP. The xFIP was 3.83 so that’s a concern and another reason to not love the salary, but we also have to factor in the Colorado lineup when it’s away from Coors. They are in the bottom eight of all of our categories even though they have kept the K rate under 23% as a team. Kelly’s top three pitches all have a whiff rate of at least 21.8% and his change and cutter have a wOBA under .270. While his four-seam has a .329 wOBA, the xwOBA is just .303 and he throws it under 30% of the time. Kelly is also slightly better when facing a righty, his K rate s almost 24% in Arizona, and the Rockies are missing Kris Bryant. It’s a whole bunch of factors that leave him on my radar. 

Mid-Range 

Reid Detmers 

He used to be a target for us to attack but his past four starts would hint that he has something figured out as he’s scored at least 16 DK points and he has 31 strikeouts in those four starts. He has started to sue the slider much more, at least 26.7% of the time on those starts and it’s been into the positives for FanGraphs value. The whiff rate is 23.6% and the wOBA is just .234 while the Mariners are just 21st against that pitch. It’s no guarantee of success but in these past 24 IP, the ERA has been 1.13, the wOBA was only .209, the K rate was 34.4%, and the FIP is just 1.78. I’m hesitant to go all-out with him but he has a pedigree and we can hope he’s got something figured out. 

Nick Lodolo 

We saw in the last start that Lodolo has some better days ahead as he only allowed six total baserunners in six innings of one-run ball while striking out seven Orioles. Even after that one, his BABIP is still an absurdly high .406 and that has to work its way down. It’s a big part of the 3.34 xFIP being almost a full run lower than his 4.23 ERA and Lodolo is sitting at a 30.3% K rate with a 12.7% swinging-strike rate so there is plenty of upside to chase. His curve is being thrown about 26% of the time and it has generated a 49.4% K rate and 28 strikeouts compared to 24 for the sinker, which also has a 24% whiff rate. Milwaukee is 20th against the curve and they also have the fourth-highest K rate when facing a lefty pitcher at 24.4%. On top of that, they aren’t higher than 23rd in OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, or OBP this year which is a surprise with some of the hitters they have. Lodolo has only pitched seven of his 38.1 innings on the road and they have been ugly, but his profile is out of whack because of the BABIP. I’m still interested, even though he’s far from the most trusted pick of the night. 

Aaron Ashby

He can be totally lights out and he can get waxed, and Ashby often shows those attributes in the same start. His stuff is nasty as his slider/change/curve all have a whiff rate over 31.5% and the slider is his star pitch with 56 strikeouts and a .290 wOBA allowed. Cincy is 26th against that pitch and his K rate is over 27% with a 55.5% ground ball rate and a 13% swinging-strike rate. The issue remains that as a starter, he has a 4.34 FIP, a 3.55 xFIP (not shabby), and the K rate drops to under 26%. His WHIP rises to 1.53 and the Reds are 15th in wRC+ but below league-average in others. It’s not the worst matchup but Ashby has had a bumpy road as a starter filled with ups and downs. 

George Kirby

We’ve had to be careful with Kirby and where to start him because the kid is young, both in age and experience. Despite his limited track record as a pro, he’s had a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.56 ERA, a K rate of 23.6%, the WHIP is 1.19, and his ground ball rate is 45.7%. These are fantastic numbers for his experience especially and his fastball has a 27% whiff rate, a .278 wOBA, and 47 of his strikeouts. The Angels are 29th against the fastball so that’s a huge bonus for Kirby and this Angles lineup has been rough against righties in the past 30 days. The K rate is almost 26% and they are 19th or lower in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. We have to be careful with his splits because the right side has a .385 wOBA and a 5.09 FIP but the more dangerous hitters for LA tend to be on the left and his K rate is at 26.5% with a 2.70 FIP. The mid-range is full of intriguing but unstable options. 

Punt Range 

Nathan Eovaldi 

I can already tell you that he’s going to bite me since I wrote him p but I could see him getting some popularity at this salary. He is in Kansas City which helps his home run tendencies in a major way because Eovaldi has a 1.85 HR/9. However, His 4.11 ERA is way higher than a 3.37 xFIP and the 18.8% HR/FB rate is crazy high compared to the career rate of 11.1%. His K rate is over 23% and the ground ball rate is almost 48%, which also leads us to believe his home run luck has been terrible. Eovaldi is also a little better against the left side with a .298 wOBA and a 28% K rate with a 3.40 xFIP so the Royals lineup could play into his hands. 

Dane Dunning 

If the White Sox continue to hurt us when we try to stack them, maybe it’s time to turn the tables. They are still 29th in ISO on the season when facing a righty, among other issues like being in the bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They may not whiff a lot at 20% but they aren’t doing anything else either. Dunning is at his best when he’s facing righties with a 22.8% K rate, a 1.17 WHIP, a 3.46 xFFIP, and a .294 wOBA. He has performed much better at home and the K rate jumps to 27.7% against the right side while the wOBA drops to .267. Most of the reason there are strong splits is he uses the slider a lot more when facing a righty and it has a 38.9% whiff rate to go with a .255 wOBA and 32 strikeouts. Not only will Dunning face plenty of righties, but the White Sox are 25th against the slider this season. 

Missed The Cut 

Andrew Heaney – We’re not going to be in the business of challenging the Padres very often and even through just 23.1 IP, Heaney has been pretty lucky. His 0.77 ERA looks pristine but the 3.02 xFIP and the 5% HR/FB rate look much scarier. Sure, 3.02 for an xFIP is not bad but it has a way to go to catch up to the ERA. 

Max Fried – You could likely get away with playing him if you wanted but I’m not going out of my way to target the Mets offense right now. They brought in a very solid platoon for the DH spot and have a strong lineup anyway, along with a K rate of just 20.4% as a team. Fried’s K rate is just 23.1% himself and it’s a very narrow path to paying off this salary.

Michael Kopech – I really wanted to give him a strong look but a .332 wOBA, 1.47 WHIP, and 4.78 xFIP against lefties were enough to pass on him against a lefty-heavy Rangers lineup. 

Stacks 

Yankees (catchers vs former pitchers tend to be a thing)

Blue Jays 

D-Backs 

Rangers 

Giants 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!