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MLB DFS

10/8 DFS and Betting Winners

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/8 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/8 DFS Winner: Matt Breida

https://twitter.com/SiriusXMFantasy/status/1181365036301848581?s=20

Matt Breida had a solid game on Monday Night against the Cleveland Browns on limited touches. Breida finished with 11 rushes for 114 yards and a touchdown. As a receiver, he had three catches for 15 and an additional touchdown.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Breida seems to have these types of games and then also have duds the next week. A little more consistency would be great to have, but when he is on, he is one of the best value running backs in the NFL. Their next game is against the Los Angeles Rams and has the ability to have a similar game to last night.

10/8 DFS Winner: San Francisco 49ers Defense

As shown in the snippet above by Daniel Wehr in his Monday Night Showdown Guide, the San Francisco 49ers played stellar defense against the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. The 49ers allowed just a field goal while forcing four turnovers (two fumble recoveries and two interceptions). They shut down the passing game completely and allowed just 180 yards of total offense.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This San Francisco team is the real deal as they are clicking on all cylinders. The team is giving up the second-fewest yards per game through five weeks. Their defensive line is forcing pressure while the defensive backs are locking down opposing skill position players. This defense is a huge reason why they remain the only undefeated team in the NFL.

10/8 DFS Winner: Kevin Kiermaier

Available for all premium members, here is a snippet of the lowest-salary outfielders in the Divisional Series from the Hitter Projection Model. Kiermaier had a good day at the plate in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Houston Astros. With the team facing elimination, Kiermaier went 1-for-4 with a go-ahead three-run homer off of Zack Greinke. Kiermaier isn’t known for the bat and this forced the Astros to throw Justin Verlander today on short rest.

10/8 DFS Winner: Ryan Zimmerman

Another screenshot from our Hitter Projection Model, this time showcasing some hitters from the Dodgers-Nationals NLDS. Ryan Zimmerman had a solid performance in Game 4, going 2-for-4 with a three-run homer of his own. Having a player of Zimmerman’s caliber towards the bottom of the lineup is helping the Nationals team. Zimmerman was a key factor of why the Dodgers and Nationals will play a loser-goes-home Game 5 on Wednesday night.

6 years ago 0 comments

10/7 MLB DFS Four-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.

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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy and Picks

There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.

SP1: Luis Severino (DK $8,600, FD $8,400)

It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.

SP2:Zack Greinke (DK $9,100, FD 10,300)

Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.

Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer

10/7 DFS Hitters

10/7 DFS C: Brian McCann (DK $3,200, FD$2,600)

He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez

10/7 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK$4,200, FD $3,900)

We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/7 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,800,3B on FD $3,900)

I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy

10/7 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $4,500,FD $4,300)

Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson

10/7 DFS SS: Didi Gregorius, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,300)

When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson

10/7 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,500,FD $2,800)

Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler

10/7 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,700)

Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario

10/7 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY (DK $4,100,FD $3,000)

Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick

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10/7 DFS Featured Single-Game (1:05 EST on FD)

Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)

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10/7 DFS Featured Showdown (8:40 p.m. on DK)

I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/hitters from both teams)

Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)

UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)

UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)

If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.

Sample with Severino at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)

UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)

UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)

UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)

I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.

6 years ago 0 comments

NFL NHL

10/7 DFS and Betting Winners: Win Daily DFS Pro Keeps Hot Run Alive

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/7 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! DFS Pro Cheat Sheets, projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats with our DFS Pros and more!

10/7 DFS Winner – Win Daily’s David Jones

As a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content including the ability to chat with DFS experts 24/7 on our Premium Slack channel. David Jones was huge on Will Fuller (see below for more details) and Christian McCaffrey had a huge day as well on FanDuel. With those two having incredible days, David is $7,500 richer as his hot run continues, He is coming off a big month of September. He has won nearly 190K since mid-August. Talk to David every day in our chats as a Premium Gold subscriber.

10/7 DFS Winner: Will Fuller V

All of our subscribers has access to the Week 5 NFL Picks of Destiny and would have saw this snippet by DFS expert David Jones. He was extremely high on Will Fuller V coming into Week 5, including calling him a prime play on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Fuller had a huge day against the Atlanta Falcons with 14 catches (16 targets) for 217 yards and three touchdowns.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Fuller essentially matched his entire season up to this point. His receptions and touchdowns were tied for most by a Texan in a single game. Do not expect consistent games like this with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, but he is a great second wide receiver for the Houston Texans. Expect Fuller to get more targets in the upcoming weeks.

10/7 Betting Winner: New York Islanders

The Cash with the Flash articles focused on the NHL last night and Phil Naessens correctly predicted an Islanders win. The Winnipeg Jets were in the midst of a road trip to begin the season. The Islanders gave up the least amount of goals a year ago and look like they have a good chance of doing so again. Expect the Islanders to make a solid push this season into the playoffs.

10/7 DFS Winner: Philadelphia Eagles Defense

The Philadelphia Eagles had a dominant day on defense against the New York Jets. The Jets, a putrid team on offense this season thus far, felt the pressure in Philly. The Eagles had 10 sacks on the day (led by Brandon Graham with three) as well as two interceptions (including a pick-six by Nathan Gerry). Orlando Scandrick also recovered a fumble and scored a touchdown of his own.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This Eagles defense is scary good. They lead the NFL in rushing defense with 63 yards per game and Top 10 in total defense. Going up next week against a run-heavy Minnesota Vikings team, expect big things by the defense for the remainder of the season as they continue to gain confidence.

10/7 Betting Winner: N.Y. Prop Exchange

Our John L. stayed hot with his prop picks, and he is also available to all of our Premium Gold subscribers.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/5 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re in the heart of the MLB postseason and looking at some 10/5 DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (9:07 EST). Let’s take in some data and find the gems on this awesome Saturday of MLB DFS action!

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10/5 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (5:07 p.m. EST) & Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (9:07 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy

Starting the right combo of two pitchers could give you a 20-40 point lead over the wrong combo of two starters, and there’s some huge value plays on this slate.

SP1: Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB (DK $10,800, FD $12,200)

For the most dominant pitcher on the slate, you’ll be spending top dollar, though Cole (who struck out over 300 batters in 2019) is much more affordable on DK. With his K/9 upside, he’s got the easiest avenue to 25+ DK points.

SP1 pivot: Blake Snell (DK $7,500, FD $9,400)

It’s hard to trust Snell against this dynamic and powerful Astros lineup. They hit for contact and power and sport a 131 wRC+ against LHPs. He’s super risky even at this price and Astros hitters have had plenty of success against him. He’s also probably not going to go past 2-3 IP, given his short appearances in his previous three starts/opens.

SP2: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. MIN (DK $6,400, FD $8,000)

Tanaka usually pitches well in big games, and he’s been areliable starter in the postseason for the Yankees the past several years (3-2,1.50 ERA/ 3.49 FIP, .162 BAA and 22.3 K%). I like that he’s carrying about a 4-to-1K/BB rate after the All-Star break, even if there’s a chance he gets blown up fora couple HRs early. That would be a disaster for us, but his pivot – devoid of playoffexperience and still a veritable neophyte at the big-league level, is evenriskier.

SP2 pivot: Randy Dobnak (DK $5,800, FD $5,500)

Dobnak’s regular season numbers look a bit like Tanaka’spostseason stats – so he’s worth a look. But the Yankees were having somepretty good at-bats last night and I’m just not too interested in a play thisrisky.

10/5 DFS SP1/2 Combo Breakdown:

Top 3:

Cole/Tanaka leaves $4,100 per hitter on DK (Preferred – mixing in value and stud bats)
Tanaka/Dobnak leaves $4,725 per hitter on DK (For an Astros full power stack and just a couple of the best Yanks/Twins bats)
Snell/Tanaka leaves $4,512 per hitter on DK (super risky but viable if Cole gets less than 20 points and Snell pitches 2-3 clean)

Bottom 3:

Cole/Dobnak leaves $4,175 per hitter on DK (The option if you want to fade Tanaka)
Snell/Dobnak leaves $4,587 per hitter on DK (Crazy talk)
Cole/Snell leaves $3.962 per hitter on DK (No thanks)

10/5 DFS Hitters

10/5 DFS C: Martin Maldonado, HOU (DK $2,900, FD $2,200)

If Maldonado gets the start, he’s probably the cheapest starting bat on the slate and makes perfect sense as a contrarian play the obvious options of Gary Sanchez and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s got four hits in four career AB (with a homer) against Gerrit Cole. Pivots: Sanchez for power upside, d’Arnaud for BvP fanatics.

10/5 DFS 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, NYY (DK $4,600, FD $3,800)

The most expensive 1B is still a bargain at this price, and he’s got multi-homer upside in Yankee Stadium. The Parrot walker has a 121 wRC+ against right-handers this season. Pivot: Yuri Gurriel (1B/3B) at just $4,200 on DK.

10/5 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (DK $4,300, FD $4,100)

We’re still on track with our basic builds of Astros/Yankees and the price is depressed on DK. I’m not going to overthink this one, plugging in one of the best hitters of the past decade, postseason included. Pivot: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500 on DK) if he’s starting.

10/5 DFS 3B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, FD $3,800)

The Yankees leadoff hitter connected last night and always give you a chance with his high contact rates and ability to punch one the other way. He drew some surprising comparisons to Derek Jeter in an eye-opening deep dive before he even played a game for the Yankees, and I’ve been a believer from day one. Pivot: Alex Bregman ($4,300 on FD), Gurriel on DK.

10/5 DFS SS: Alex Bregman, HOU (DK $4,800)

Bregman launched 41 homers this year in an MVP-type season, including six in his final 13 games. He’s exceptional against LHPs (205 wRC+ and .473 wOBA) and there’s no reason to leave him out of your builds. Pivot: Gleyber Torres ($4,000 on DK), Didi Gregorius ($3,200 on FD).

10/5 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY ($DK $4,200, FD $2,900)

Opposing teams have been pitching the sluggers carefully this season, and guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may only see a couple mashable pitches over multiple ABs. This has allowed Gardner to bulk up his power numbers (28 HRs and .253 ISO) this season and produce at unexpected levels. He’s inexpensive and will be chalky, but he’s a must-have in your lineup builds. Pivot: Jake Marisnick (DK $3,000, FD $2,300) – I’ll have some lineups with both Gardner and Marisnick so I can fit all these other big bats.

10/5 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $4,000, FD $3,800)

Getting Stanton at this price seems like highway robbery, and while he’s probably going to exit early for a pinch runner or defensive replacement, he can get a lot done in 2-3 ABs. Watching his ABs last night, he looks good and is going to make most of my GPP lineups. Pivot: Michael Brantley (DK $3,800, FD $3,500).

10/5 DFS OF: Max Kepler, MIN (DK $4,500, FD $3,400)

I need some Twins in here and I’m most interested in Kepler, who’s plate approach and batted ball data seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter and Tanaka could easily serve up a dinger if he leaves one in Kepler’s wheelhouse. Pivot: Eddie Rosario (DK $4,500, FD $3,600).

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10/5 DFS FeaturedShowdown (9:07 p.m. on DK)

It’s going to be tough to use Cole as CPT and use allprobable starting players, but you can do it.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup with Cole at CPT ($400 remaining :

Captain (1.5x) – G. Cole ($18,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($8,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – J. Wendle ($4,000)

I‘m more inclined to use Cole at UTIL and fit in a studAstros bat at CPT (with d’Arnaud as my lone TB bat in the Altuve build):

Sample with Cole at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($14,700) or J. Altuve ($13,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($5,000)

UTIL – M. Straw ($6,800) or M. Brantley ($7,800)

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10/5 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (9:07 EST on FD)

Hitters only, with Springer or Brantley determining if it’sMaldonado or Gurriel in the last spot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – A. Bregman ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – J. Altuve ($8,000)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)/M.Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)/Y. Gurriel ($6,500)

6 years ago 0 comments

NFL MLB

10/4 DFS and Betting Winners: Our Wagering Experts are on Fire!

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/4 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/4 Betting Winners – Capper Steve

As a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content. One of the key aspects you get is Sports Betting Picks by Capper Steve. As you can see in the screenshot above, Capper Steve was 5-0 on his picks for last night. If you were to follow all his bets shown, you’d have an additional 10 units. .

10/4 DFS Winner: Russell Wilson

Premium Gold members have access to our NFL Projection Model and above is a screenshot from it. Here are the Top 10 quarterbacks on the Week 5 slate. Russell Wilson was phenomenal on Thursday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams, going 17-of-23 with 268 yards and four touchdown passes. He also ran the ball eight times for 32 yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the fifth-highest QBR rating for a quarterback in a game this season. Wilson looked great and is arguably the most overlooked quarterback in the NFL. In his last 19 games, he has 42 touchdowns to four interceptions. With the balanced passing attack of Seattle, they are a difficult team to stop.

10/3 Betting Winner: Phil Naessens

For the second consecutive night, Phil Naessens hit on a pair of NHL lines as both the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers won their season openers. Phil has daily bets in his Cash with the Flash Premium Gold articles and is consistently adding to your bankrolls with these picks. If you are a fan of extra money, you have to be checking these wagering experts on a consistent basis.

10/4 DFS Winner: Gerald Everett

Another NFL Projection Model snapshot of players that have a similar price tag to Gerald Everett of the Rams. The tight end had seven catches (11 targets) for 136 yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the first game where Everett had over 45 receiving yards. As the backup tight end on the team’s official depth chart, this was a standout game. The Rams could use better production out of their tight ends so expect more quality outings from Everett.

6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/3 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re into the exciting MLB postseason and looking at some 10/3 MLB DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (8:37 EST). Join us as we detail some strategies for lineup construction and taking down the big cash prize.

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10/3 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m. EST) & Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m. EST)

10/3 DFS SP General Strategy

The one-game playoffs are over, so SP1s are much more important, could rack up some big-time points and will set the tone for the entire roster construction. There’s plenty of SP2 value here.

SP1: Walker Buehler, LAD vs. WAS (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)

The pricing is fair on both sites considering Buehler’sceiling, although he’ll have a shorter leash than the regular season. Still –the 29.2 K% stands out as a number we can latch onto and invest in, along withthe 12.2% HR/FB rate. The young ace has been the Dodgers’ most consistentstarter in 2019 and is your best bet at SP1. Ownership will be massive and I’llmake sure to leave him out of 1-2/10 GPP lineups, but we can find ways todifferentiate later.

SP2: Dallas Keuchel, ATL vs. STL (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)

I’m not interested in Miles Mikolas and the small discount on FD, and he’s just too risky against the Braves lineup at their home park in Atlanta. I may slap in both Keuchel and Mikolas in the aforementioned 1-2/10 lineups on DK and stack the biggest bats from the hitting options below, but Keuchel’s postseason record (4-2, 3.31 ERA in nine starts and 10 total appearances) is something I’m drawn to. Keuchel’s .219 BAA and 3.38 SIERA in the postseason further solidify my interest.

10/3 DFS Hitters

10/3 DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,800, FD $2,700)

You’re paying for experience (343 postseason plate appearances) and the highest floor of the available catchers. I’m probably not playing catchers on FD but you get a real discount with Molina. Brian McCann ($3,400 on DK) has legit home run upside but poor postseason numbers in 126 plate appearances (.170/.254/.304 slash). Will Smith is neutralized a bit by LHPs and Kurt Suzuki is a contrarian dart throw for large-field GPPs.

10/3 DFS 1B: Cody Bellinger, LAD (DK $5,000)

The price is right and he’s got the biggest upside excluding Paul Goldschmidt, who might get pretty chalky. I’m not worried about lefty-lefty and Corbin may not last long. Bellinger is an OF on FD and OF eligible on DK. Plug him in there. Pivot: Freddie Freeman, ATL (DK $4,700, FD $4,200). I’m concerned about the bone spur in his elbow and may choose to avoid him here. Freddie is risky but has a favorable matchup against Mikolas.

10/3 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

Tommy Edman ($5,300 on DK) is 2B/3B eligible on DK and makes for an interesting pivot against the LHP, but I like Albies hitting in the 2-spot here despite his splits favoring him versus lefties. If he’s chalky, I’ll look to use the more expensive Edman. Pivots: Edman, Asdrubal Cabrera

10/3 DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $3,200)

The 34-year-old is nursing a tight back, but he’s assured us he will play in Game 1 and is coming off a solid season where he tied his career high with 27 homers – while driving in 67 runs and slashing .290/.372/.509 in 135 games. I’m taking the plunge and hoping for low ownership because of the back.

10/3 DFS SS: Chris Taylor, LAD (DK $3,600)

Taylor is a relatively cheap OF on FD ($2,800) but the price on Dk is solid too. Remember when this guy just couldn’t get it going early in the season? After his dreadful April when he slashed .171/.263/.257, Taylor settled in, and he’s got plenty of postseason experience with a 139 wRC+ in 30 games.

10/3 DFS OF: Kike Hernandez (DK $3,300)

Hernandez is a $2,900 second baseman on FD, but he’s just $3,300 on Dk and the price can get you a full Dodgers stack without too much trouble. He kills southpaws (career 123 wRC+ and .213 ISO vs. LHPs) and he’s got five HRs in 103 postseason plate appearances. Pivot: Matt Joyce

10/3 DFS OF: Juan Soto (DK $4,100, FD $3,800)

I’m buying Soto despite the tough matchup, planning on him coming up in a big spot late in the game, and delivering. Soto showed us something in the Wild Card game the small sample 0-for-5 BvP against Buehler will keep his ownership low. The price is cheap and if he fits, I’ll use him. Pivots: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna

10/3 DFS OF: A.J. Pollock, LAD (DK $3,700, FD $3,400)

He rounds out my Dodgers stack on DK and makes sense as a third outfielder on FD. Pollock sports a blistering 136 wRC+ against LHPs and a 154 wRC+ at home vs. LHPs. Pivot: Dexter Fowler

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10/3 DFS FeaturedShowdown (8:37 p.m. on DK)

I’ll have some shares with Buehler as CPT and a few inexpensivebats and bench players (Gavin Lux, Brian Dozier are both viable bench optionsin large-field Showdown GPPs), but the majority of lineups will feature Pollock,Turner, Taylor and Hernandez at CPT with shares of Soto, Howie Kendrick, VictorRobles and Cabrera for the Nats.

Sample Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – Pollock ($10,800)

UTIL – Buehler ($11,600)

UTIL – J. Turner ($7,600)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($6,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($6,000)

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10/3 DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 EST on FD)

We don’t have to worry about pitchers on FD, so we can putour best hitter right in the MVP slot and take some chances after that. And Ifwe stick with Pollock as MVP in 2/5 GPP lineups, we’ll get low ownership and anadvantage on the field.

Sample FD lineup (with $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Pollock ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bellinger ($9,000)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($4.500)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,500)

UTIL – K. Hernandez ($6,000)

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB NFL

10/3 DFS and Betting Winners: Good Night to be the Underdog

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/3 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/3 Betting Winners – Capper Steve & John L.

If you are a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content. One of those features is Sports Betting Picks, where Capper Steve gives you some action every day during the week. Both Steve and John (MLB Moving Averages) were high on the underdog Tampa Bay Rays. Capper Steve also hit on both of his hockey picks last night as well. If you are in the business of making money, why have you not joined the Win Daily Family by now?

10/3 DFS Winner: Yandy Diaz

Premium Gold members have access to our MLB Hitter Projection Model and above is a screenshot from it. Here are the Top 10 hitters from the A,L. Wild Card game and Yandy Diaz was at the sixth-highest salary. Diaz made a huge mark on the game as he went 3-for-4 with two solo home runs, including a leadoff homer.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Yandy Diaz had a big chunk of the second half wasted with a left foot contusion, so his impact must’ve felt great. Diaz had success against the Houston Astros during the regular season, going 5-for-15 with a double and a home run, so expect Diaz to be a good hitter throughout the series.

10/3 Betting Winner: Phil Naessens

Phil has been hitting on a regular basis with his Cash with the Flash picks that you see almost every night in his Premium Gold article. With the start of the NHL season, he helps you win some money there. Toronto won their opening game 5-3 to cover the -1.5 spread. The Capitals also defeated the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Blues and if you followed the bet, you would’ve made some extra bankroll with the underdog pick.

10/3 DFS Winner: Marc-Andre Fleury

With the first puck drop of the season comes the first NHL winner. This snippet is via Allen Fabrykant in the Daily Hot Shot article that is available to anybody. The Vegas Golden Knights were home against the San Jose Sharks and their potent offense. Fleury only allowed a single goal on 22 shot attempts for a save percentage of .955 against a team that scored the second-most goals a season ago (289).

Outlook for the rest of the season: Fleury is one of the best goaltenders that the NHL has to offer. His resume speaks for itself, with three Stanley Cups. Expect Fleury to keep opposing offenses shut down, only giving up one or two goals a game.

6 years ago 0 comments

NFL MLB

10/2 DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/2 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/2 Betting Winners – Phil Naessens

If you are a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content. One of those features is Cash with the Flash, where Phil Naessens tells you his favorite bets for the day. Obviously with the one-game Wild Card going on, it’s difficult to decide where to put your money. However, Phil hit it on the head and if you followed his bet, you’d be sitting pretty with extra money in your bankroll.

10/1 DFS Winner: Juan Soto

Premium Gold members have access to databases like our MLB Projection Model. It would be difficult to leave Juan Soto off this article for what he was able to do in the N.L. Wild Card game. The box score shows Soto as 1-for-4 with two RBI, but his production was much more than that. In the eighth inning with the bases loaded and down two, he ripped a single to right. Rookie Trent Grisham, who is essentially replacing Christian Yelich, misplayed the ball and allowed the hit to clear the bases. This gave the struggling Nationals offense life and energized the team to a NLDS matchup against the Dodgers.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Juan Soto was the hero that Washington needed last night. The Brewers were shutting down the Nationals offense with ease for most of the game and their 20-year-old stud outfielder literally saved their entire season. Soto only had six total bases in five games against the Dodgers during the regular season so expect him to struggle a bit throughout the NLDS.

10/2 DFS Winner: Yasmani Grandal

Yasmani Grandal helped the Milwaukee Brewers almost steal the Wild Card game last night. Grandal finished 1-for-3 with a home run, two RBI and a walk. The home run was an early blow as many expected Max Scherzer to dominate, but after Grisham worked a walk to to open the game, Grandal homered on the first pitch he saw. The catcher has a mutual option for 2020 so this potentially could be his final game with the Brewers.

10/2 DFS Winner: Lucas Pouille

Another hit from our Cash with the Flash article as Lucas Pouille defeated Yoshihito Nishioka rather covincingly 6-1, 6-2. His next matchup will be in the quarterfinals against top seeded Novak Djokovic early Thursday morning.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

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Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15^th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Max Scherzer	Nationals	172.1	12.69	1.72	0.94	40.80%	11.60%	2.92	2.88
Charlie Morton	Rays	194.2	11.1	2.64	0.69	48.20%	10.40%	3.05	3.28
Brandon Woodruff	Brewers	121.2	10.58	2.22	0.89	44.60%	12.00%	3.62	3.36
Sean Manaea	Athletics	29.2	9.1	2.12	0.91	41.20%	10.70%	1.21	3.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Nationals	234.2	8.94	3.72	1.61	37.30%	15.30%	4.83	4.88
Brewers	284	11.12	3.96	1.43	43.40%	18.00%	3.99	3.96
Athletics	226.2	10.2	3.14	1.23	41.00%	14.00%	3.77	4.08
Rays	328.1	10.75	2.74	1.29	41.90%	15.00%	3.56	3.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2^nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Keston Hiura	265	6.80%	30.20%	0.23	6	0.418	159
Eric Thames	397	10.60%	30.50%	0.35	3	0.362	122
Yasmani Grandal	438	16.40%	21.90%	0.75	3	0.35	114
Mike Moustakas	403	9.90%	17.60%	0.56	3	0.342	109
Ryan Braun	332	5.40%	23.50%	0.23	8	0.338	106
Trent Grisham	147	11.60%	23.10%	0.5	1	0.319	94
Lorenzo Cain	445	7.60%	17.10%	0.45	9	0.296	79
Ben Gamel	277	10.10%	29.60%	0.34	1	0.284	71
Travis Shaw	219	16.40%	32.90%	0.5	0	0.278	67
Cory Spangenberg	84	7.10%	32.10%	0.22	2	0.27	62
Orlando Arcia	411	7.80%	20.70%	0.38	7	0.261	56
Hernan Perez	127	5.50%	33.90%	0.16	2	0.24	42
Manny Pina	98	9.20%	25.50%	0.36	0	0.233	38
Tyler Austin	69	10.10%	44.90%	0.23	1	0.232	41
Tyler Saladino	52	7.70%	32.70%	0.24	2	0.188	8

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Juan Soto	438	18.30%	20.30%	0.9	9	0.414	155
Anthony Rendon	475	11.40%	12.40%	0.92	2	0.411	153
Howie Kendrick	244	7.80%	12.70%	0.61	1	0.385	136
Trea Turner	441	7.50%	20.40%	0.37	27	0.36	120
Adam Eaton	499	10.60%	15.60%	0.68	11	0.342	108
Asdrubal Cabrera	374	10.20%	22.20%	0.46	3	0.332	99
Kurt Suzuki	237	7.20%	11.40%	0.63	0	0.319	93
Victor Robles	458	5.90%	23.60%	0.25	16	0.314	90
Matt Adams	270	7.00%	35.20%	0.2	0	0.314	89
Brian Dozier	346	12.40%	22.30%	0.56	2	0.312	88
Gerardo Parra	232	6.90%	19.80%	0.35	6	0.291	76
Ryan Zimmerman	137	9.50%	19.70%	0.48	0	0.277	65
Yan Gomes	273	8.40%	25.30%	0.33	2	0.275	64
Michael A. Taylor	57	7.00%	36.80%	0.19	5	0.26	54
Wilmer Difo	115	9.60%	18.30%	0.52	0	0.254	50

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Tommy Pham	197	18.80%	17.80%	1.06	8	0.407	161
Yandy Diaz	117	12.00%	21.40%	0.56	1	0.402	158
Travis d’Arnaud	150	8.70%	21.30%	0.41	0	0.362	130
Eric Sogard	120	9.20%	18.30%	0.5	2	0.353	122
Michael Brosseau	73	4.10%	23.30%	0.18	0	0.347	120
Austin Meadows	177	5.10%	29.90%	0.17	2	0.346	120
Guillermo Heredia	124	6.50%	23.40%	0.28	0	0.337	114
Kevin Kiermaier	130	3.80%	21.50%	0.18	5	0.332	110
Avisail Garcia	177	7.90%	22.60%	0.35	0	0.328	107
Jesus Aguilar	145	12.40%	22.10%	0.56	0	0.303	86
Daniel Robertson	96	10.40%	28.10%	0.37	1	0.299	88
Brandon Lowe	68	2.90%	52.90%	0.06	0	0.282	77
Ji-Man Choi	94	11.70%	23.40%	0.5	0	0.28	75
Michael Perez	11	0.00%	45.50%	0	0	0.269	67
Willy Adames	198	6.60%	27.80%	0.24	1	0.245	51
Matt Duffy	66	13.60%	19.70%	0.69	0	0.245	51
Mike Zunino	101	9.90%	33.70%	0.29	0	0.214	30
Joey Wendle	59	6.80%	25.40%	0.27	1	0.168	-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Mark Canha	340	12.90%	23.50%	0.55	2	0.405	160
Sean Murphy	40	10.00%	27.50%	0.36	0	0.394	152
Matt Olson	374	11.20%	25.90%	0.43	0	0.391	150
Seth Brown	69	10.10%	27.50%	0.37	1	0.379	142
Marcus Semien	545	11.60%	14.30%	0.81	10	0.367	134
Ramon Laureano	346	6.40%	26.60%	0.24	9	0.361	129
Matt Chapman	491	10.20%	22.80%	0.45	1	0.355	126
Robbie Grossman	424	12.50%	17.50%	0.72	8	0.307	93
Jurickson Profar	399	8.80%	14.50%	0.6	7	0.286	79
Chad Pinder	191	4.20%	25.70%	0.16	0	0.28	75
Stephen Piscotty	301	8.00%	22.30%	0.36	2	0.272	69
Josh Phegley	239	5.00%	21.80%	0.23	0	0.266	66
Khris Davis	383	7.30%	30.80%	0.24	0	0.252	56

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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6 years ago 0 comments

NFL MLB

10/1 DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 10/1 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/1 Betting Winners – Capper Steve

If you are a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content. One of those features is Capper Steve’s Sports Betting Picks article. If you listened to his expert advice, you would be sitting pretty with an extra two units with a Steelers -3.5 win. The Steelers dominated the game and won easily 27-3.

10/1 DFS Winner: Mason Rudolph

Premium Gold members have access to databases like our NFL Projection Model. The screenshot above is the 11 quarterbacks with the lowest salary for Week 4. Mason Rudolph looked great for the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday at home against the divisional-rival Cincinnati Bengals. Rudolph went 24-of-28 with 229 yards and a pair of touchdown passes.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Rudolph is beginning to gain success after the Steelers’ first win of the season. Coach Mike Tomlin seemed to keep the playbook simple with short passes for Rudolph. It also helped that he was able to not get sacked the entire game. Now with six touchdowns and only two interceptions on the year, expect Rudolph to gain more confidence and begin to have the playbook open up for him in the upcoming weeks.

10/1 DFS Winner: James Conner

Here is a snippet from Dan Wehr’s Week Four MNF Showdown Guide that highlighted James Conner and how he will get established in the offense. James Conner had 18 touches (10 rushes and eight catches) for 125 yards and a touchdown. He finished the game with the most targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Conner has been disappointing on the rushing side of his game, just 139 yards so far this season. Going into another AFC North divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, it could be a tell-tale game for him. Conner is a major part of the passing game with his ability to catch the football. Expect around similar combined yards for the remainder of the season.

10/1 DFS Winner: Felix Auger Aliassime

Another hit from our Cash with the Flash article as Felix Auger Aliassime won in straight sets against Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the round of 32 at the China Open. He is next slated to face off against the two seed, Alexander Zverev.

6 years ago 0 comments

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