Projection Models are an extremely valuable tool when it comes to MLB DFS. But, if you don’t know how to use them, you could be doing more harm than good. Here’s a breakdown…
Thursday features a five-game night slate that starts at 7:07 PM EST. There are plenty of options and paths we can attack, so let’s get to it!
If you’ve read my articles, you know I am obsessed with Bradish. The kid just continues to pump out quality starts, and has 19.9+ DraftKings points in 6 of his last 7 outings. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a start since August 1st. Tampa Bay rolls into town having heated back up after their midseason slump.
Bradish has faced the Rays twice since late June with pretty solid results. The first was 5 innings of 2-run ball with just four hits allowed and an 8/2 K/BB. The second was 6 innings of 2 run ball with six hits allowed and a 5/1 K/BB.
He is a solid option on a small slate that will almost undoubtedly have a high floor.
Hear me out on this one. Normally we avoid pitchers in Coors Field, and for good reason. That said, Webb is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, and with only a few games, we need to differentiate. He has faced the Rockies twice in San Fran over the last few months and has a combined stat line of 15 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, and a 14/1 K/BB.
While we can’t necessarily expect those numbers to maintain going from a pitcher’s paradise in Northern California to the high altitude in Colorado, this is a great matchup for Webb.
He has had mixed results over the last month or so, but the upside is undoubtedly present. The Giants are battling for a playoff spot, and this is as close to a must-win as they will face from here on out.
I’m shooting my shot with Webb here.
Ever since King has moved into the rotation, he has been fantastic. Over his last four starts, he has a combined 14 innings of work, allowing just 3 hits, 2 ER, and an 18/1 K/BB. This directly coincides with me dropping him in some dynasty leagues because he wasn’t providing back-end value. But I digress.
The Red Sox have a potent offense, but one that is inconsistent. Last time King faced them, it was a short stint where he allowed 3 ER in just 1.1 innings while walking 2 and striking out 2. The Yankees have been a train wreck this season, but it seems like they may have found something in King as a rotation piece. With a Coors game, I’m going lower salary on the pitching. Neither Gausman or Eovaldi excite me in their matchups. Let’s get some offense.
I mentioned a pitcher in Coors above, but this is the pitcher to target for upside with your bats. Anderson was never a particularly good starter in MLB, and this season has shown more of the same. His last two starts have been particularly bad, allowing 8 ER over 7.1 IP on 10 hits with a 6/4 K/BB.
That is…not good.
The Giants are ready to pounce in this matchup as they continue to fight down the wire for a wild-card spot.
Mitch Haniger, Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, Joc Pederson, and Mike Yaztremski look like solid options here, but this is a lineup in flux at times, and I want all pieces here against the gas can that is Chase Anderson.
Jose Urena seems to be best known for being terrible and for intentionally throwing at Ronald Acuna Jr. in his career. He made his return from the IL last week, and wasn’t particularly impressive, but did allow just a single run in 4 innings of work against the Tigers.
The Twins are inexplicably in a playoff spot due to how terrible the AL Central has been this season. That said, there is upside to be had against Urena. Over his career, he has really struggled with LHB, so I’ll be prioritizing Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, the switch-hitting Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner. Alex Kiriloff is another lefty, and the list goes on with this lineup. There are a ton of strikeouts to be had against the Twins, but I’m not betting on Urena to have success at any point. Give me the lefty Twins and let’s move on to the next one.
This one is a bit off the wall, but that’s why we like it. Maeda has seemed to completely lose his strikeout upside, and has just an 8/4 K/BB over his last three starts (14.1 IP). The White Sox still have some bats that can do damage, and they are my contrarian stack of the night.
Luis Robert Jr. is the obvious top choice, but Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, Andrew Benintendi, and even the “knocked-out” king Tim Anderson are in play here. I think he will continue to throw strikes and fool nobody, and this is a lineup at potentially low ownership that can take advantage. It may be a lost season for the Sox, but they can at least make us some cash and go down swinging.
I have some low-owned potentials for you for Thursday, so let’s get this party started! Time to roll into the weekend on a high note!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
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