Jared Levitt 
Today is the day that’s going to test our patience. We currently have a 9-game slate of MLB DFS to work with, but by the time the games start we may be down to just 6 games. New York and Chicago are set to have some nasty weather and the 3 games scheduled there are very likely to be postponed. We’ll want to keep an eye on those games. Hopefully, we’ll know more early, making our decisions easy. I’m going to treat this slate as just 6 games though because I just don’t see it possible for those games to play. Many of the starters throwing today are making their second appearance of the year.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Brayan Bello ($8k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics
Similar to last season, we’re going to be picking on the Oakland A’s as much as possible. They continue to be an awful franchise and continue to make awful decisions. Yesterday, they demoted one of the few hitters on their team that was hitting Esteury Perez. It’s only April 2, and the A’s already have a -27 run differential. It’s going to be a long season for the A’s.
It’s not going to get much easier tonight as they face off against Brayan Bello. Bellow pitched ok in his first outing against the Mariners. He struck out just 2 hitters, but he did pick up the coveted win. At $8k, we aren’t going to be looking for a ton of K’s so if we can get up to 5 from Bello tonight, that will probably be enough to pay off his salary. Against a bad A’s team, that’s very plausible.
Shane Bieber ($8.8k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners
Shane Bieber looked like the ace he is in his first outing of the year. Across 6 innings, Bieber struck out 11 A’s and allowed just 4 hits. None of those hitters crossed the plate as the Guardians ace pitched an absolute gem. He’ll look to continue the momentum today as he takes on a Mariners lineup that has somewhat struggled to start the year. Even though the team is 3-2 to start the season, they have a -3 run differential and have also struck out an alarming rate.
Through the 5 games, the team owns a nearly 35% strikeout rate. Couple that with Bieber’s ability to mow down hitters, I like this spot for him tonight as the strikeout potential is really high. He’s risky because the Mariners can break out any moment, but the price isn’t sky-high and there’s certainly value here.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Boston Red Sox vs. Alex Wood
It’s tough to read that much into one start, but if Alex Wood’s debut A’s start is indicative of what this season is going to look like, it’s going to look very ugly. Wood gave up 6 ER in just a little over 3 innings of work in his debut against the Guardians. The BABIP was extremely high so there’s definitely a chance he comes back down to earth. That said, he put just too many balls in play and that’s a recipe for disaster.
Of the 13 balls he allowed in play, 7 were hit and considered to have been hard. That type of ratio isn’t going to cut it and it’s going to be a struggle today against an above-average lineup in the Red Sox. With Wood, we want to focus on attacking him with righties. All of his metrics are way worse against righties than lefties.
The two guys I’m going to prioritize getting into my Red Sox stack today are going to be Trevor Story and Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill has really started the season strong. Through his first 10 AB, O’Neill has a massive 1.538 OPS and a .606 wOBA. He’s going to certainly come back down to earth at some point soon, but it’s not going to be tonight in this matchup. Story hasn’t been nearly as hot as O’Neill but he has a long history of doing well against Southpaws. Is this the year the Red Sox finally don’t regret giving him that contract? Time will tell. Other than these 2 guys, I also like Rafael Devers, Ceddane Rafaela, and Masataka Yoshida. This lineup should do well tonight
San Diego Padres vs. Miles Mikolas
Similar to attacking Alex Wood, I’m going to be attacking Miles Mikolas tonight based on his first start of the season. Yes, it was one start that saw him give up 5 ER in just 4 innings of work, but it’s also attacking him based on last season as well. After a solid 2022 campaign, Mikolas really regressed in 2023. He saw a rise in ERA, xFIP, and a reduction in K/9. I’ve never been a big fan of his and will continue to stack against him, especially with a solid lineup like the Padres. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits against Mikolas, but we do want to favor the lefties a smidge. Lefties have a higher slugging and on-base % vs them.
They aren’t lefties, but the 3 best hitters vs. righties in this lineup are going to be Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Xander Bogaerts. All 3 are elite and crushed righties last season. They each had an OPS over .725 vs. righties last season and have long track records crushing righties. They are pricey but should do well here. Of the lefties, Jake Cronenworth is probably my favorite. He’s off to a decent start to the season with an OPS of .855 and a wOBA of .367. He’s done a solid job driving the ball with a line drive % of 36%. He’s swinging a hot stick and should be part of your Padres stack tonight. Other guys I like here will be Ha-Seong Kim (if he cracks the lineup) and Luis Campusano.
Favorite Prop Bets:
Tyler O’Neill – RBI (+135 DK)
Manny Machado – RBI -(+115 DK)
Shane Bieber – 6.5 K’s – Over (-115 DK)
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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