MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18

After a night off from an article, we’re ready to roll into a big slate on Friday. We have 12 games on tap and some promising spots to try and go after, so let’s get started in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 28th CH – 16th CB – 27th

Plesac checks so many boxes that I would have to imagine he’s the chalk. He’s a righty against the Tigers, he owns a 25.5% K rate on his own and his WHIP is 0.78. Plesac is also only giving up a 30% hard hit rate while generating a swinging strike rate of 14.2%. We don’t need to get too involved here in all honestly. Much like Bieber last night, you basically just lock him in cash and move on to the rest. The salary of $8,500 is fairly laughable given the circumstances.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 9th CB – 16th

Playing Glasnow can be a bit of a roller coaster at times, but the simple fact is he strikes hitters out and the K is King in MLB DFS. The big righty has a 37.4% K rate and that is tied for the third-highest among starters this season. I still contend he’s been unlucky so far because the FIP is 3.51 and the xFIP is 2.86 but the ERA is 4.47. The HR/9 is elevated at 1.55 with just a 37.3% fly ball rate.

He’s faced the Orioles twice this season and had their number, whiffing 18 hitters over 11.2 IP. Baltimore isn’t typically a big strikeout matchup at 22.9% but Glasnow is not your typical pitcher. The walk rate is a bit higher than I love at 9.7% but the amount of strikeouts overwhelms the negative there. Count me in regardless of format for him tonight.

GPP Options

Zach Greinke

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 30th SL – 9th CB – 8th

It might seem weird to put Greinke in the GPP category but he’s been a little rough lately. It could just be a small blip but with Greinke and the mileage on that arm, it’s best to be careful. He continues to get it done unlike just about every other pitcher in the game. Not many pitchers survive an 87.2 MPH average on the fastball. That’s 143rd among staring pitchers. He’s also not in the cash pile since he’s the highest salary on DK despite four of his last five games scoring under 18 DK.

Arizona also has the best K rate in MLB to the righty pitchers at just 20.3% so the matchup certainly isn’t great. It’s one of the reasons I won’t go there in cash, but the splits could be key for Greinke. He dominates LHH with a .218 wOBA and .189 average with 0 homers so far. The K rate skyrockets to 31% so if the D-Backs trot out a lefty-filled lineup, Greinke could quietly be one of the best options of the night and not many will pay up for him.

Chris Paddack

Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 26th

I’m still of the strong opinion that Paddack has to develop some type of reliable third pitch if he sticks as a big time starter. Since that’s not happening by tonight, he can be nothing more than a GPP option. He does draw the Mariners matchup that we’ve picked on a lot and is fighting for a role in the postseason. His lone start against the Mariners was a mixed bag. He whiffed seven but gave up six runs.

Another plus here is Paddack is pitching in San Diego, where the ERA is 4.11 compared to 5.79 on the road. Seattle has been a lot better in the K rate, down to 22.6%. They are still 16th or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA so there’s still potential for Paddack tonight.

Honorable Mention – Max Fried, Zac Gallen

Monkey Knife Fight

The only game that features two ace to ace-lite pitchers is the Arizona at Houston game, so we’re focusing on that one. I feel most comfortable with the lowest K total and just treating it as a double up, but bankroll management is always key.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15

It was another very solid day on the Starting Rotation, with three of four primary options going over 27 DK and two clearing 30. Jesus Luzardo was the main player that was just average, but he was so popular in cash it didn’t hurt you. We have a monster 13 game slate tonight so let’s not waste any more time before diving into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15.

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 24th FB – 24th SL – 29th CB – 24th

This spot couldn’t honestly line up much better for Darvish. First off, we saw him struggle mightily in the first inning last start. He responded and still finished with 22 DK and whiffed nine Reds hitters. He carries a 33.6% K rate into this one and the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 2.65. The Indians are struggling with RHP at a 24.2% K rate and being 24th or worse in ISO, OPS and wOBA.

If there’s any small concern, it’s the reduced K rate to LHH for Darvish. It’s “only” 28.9% but the wOBA is still only .239. On this big of a slate we surprisingly don’t have a lot of very safe cash options, so Darvish becomes the prime choice almost by default. Let’s be honest, he’s always a cash option and the pitch data is really spectacular for him as well.

Jack Flaherty

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 21st CB – 10th

As I said, cash is a little tough here. There’s an arm that I do really like cheap that maybe you could turn to on DK for the SP2 but the safer choice should be Flaherty. It feels like things are starting to turn for him. The ERA and xFIP are both under 3.60 and he’s giving up a lower HR/9 from 2019. The K rate is down to 25% but the Brewers and their second-highest K rate to RHP should help him out there.

He throws the curveball the least of his three main pitches so the pitch data looks even better. He’s up to 95 pitches in his last game so we should feel good about the workload. Milwaukee has been flat awful all season and Flaherty has probably been a little better than some traditional stats would say. The 13.4% swinging strike rate is near identical to last year and will show up sooner than later.

Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco

GPP Options

Deivi Garcia

Pitch Data – FB – 17th CB – 5th CH – 11th

I’m honestly flirting with Garcia in cash to be able to fit more bats. He’s started three games and has scored over 23 DK in two, while scoring 9.7 in the other. His best start so far has come in his last one vs these Blue Jays, where he was throwing some high heat.

Through three starts, he has a 25.7% K rate and a 2.9% walk rate. Considering his walk rate has been over 11% at every stop of A+, AA and AAA ball, that is wonderful for Garcia. He has no fear and seems unflappable so far. Teams have not been able to figure him out with just a 28.6% hard hit rate. The 12.1% swinging strike rate is a great sign too and he really shouldn’t be under $7,000.

Matt Boyd

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 10th CH – 28th

Perhaps the ultimate GPP option, Boyd has some serious upside at $8,000 with some horrendous downside. In his last seven starts, three have been under 1 DK and two have been over 24. That’s what we call the roller coaster. The Royals do only whiff 21.4% but Boyd is at 24.4% himself. The 2.68 HR/9 is really bizarre. Boyd has a SIERA of just 4.27 and an xFIP of 4.63. Both are significantly different than the 7.63 ERA. His 13.1% swinging strike rate is way out of whack for a bad pitcher as well. Boyd could be anything on this slate but I’m willing to look at him.

Honorable Mention – Ljay Newsome, Dane Dunning, Taijuan Walker

Monkey Knife Fight

It’s been open season on D-Backs starter Madison Bumgarner. He’s getting crushed to an ERA over 7.00 with a 13.7% K rate, 52.2% fly ball rate and a 45.6% hard hit rate. It gets worse to RHH with a .444 wOBA, 1.109 OPS, 4.74 HR/9 and a 9.7% K rate. That is….rough. The Angels should be able to capitalize on it tonight. Anthony Rendon leads with a .398 wOBA and .283 ISO. Mike Trout is odd with just a .167 ISO and .318 wOBA but Bumgarner is nothing to fear. Likewise, Justin Upton whiffs over 34% of the time but when he makes contact, he has a .204 ISO.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14

We’re back in action on a fairly small Monday night slate! This slate is not for players that don’t like to spend up on pitching because the bottom salary players are tough to get behind. I’m not sure that there’s a pitcher under $8,000 that I’m too keen on. I do know the very first pitcher I’m locking in for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14 so let’s get right to it!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 12th CB – 29th SL – 23rd

I’m not even really looking at any other option for my SP1 in cash and likely GPP. There’s some type of issues with just about every other pitcher on this slate but Bauer has no real concerns on paper. The K rate is 36% and the swinging strike rate is 12.7%. Combine that with a 29.1% hard hit rate and it’s hard to see where the Pirates hurt him. They are a top 10 offense in K rate to RHP and near the bottom of every offensive category. This one is too simple by every metric we value.

Jesus Luzardo

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 27th CH – 26th

This would not normally be a cash play but the slate sort of dictates Luzardo being the cheapest we can go. Seattle is 24th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the season to LHP. That also comes with a K rate that is over 25% as a team, so there’s room for potential upside.

Luzardo has a 23.9% K rate himself and just a 27.4% fly ball rate. He also doesn’t get hit very hard with just a 33.1% hard hit rate. The .306 BABIP doesn’t seem like something that will stick around forever either so this lines up well. The pitch data really couldn’t be much better for him either so Bauer and Luzardo is the cheapest combo we could go in cash.

GPP Options

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 2nd SL – 9th

We all know this isn’t the best spot on paper with the Dodgers being one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Lamet has faced them once and only accrued 11.2 DK points. He actually pitched pretty well in real life, with just one earned through 5.2 IP. He just didn’t get the strikeouts with two. The Dodgers lead the league in K rate at 20.2% but Lamet is that talented that he can get it done here with his 32.9% K rate on the season.

Pablo Lopez

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CH – 1st CT – 21st

This is another spot that doesn’t exactly line up with what we want. Lopez still is worth a look for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14. We’re hoping that Lopez bounces back after getting hammered by the Braves last time out. In fact, that could help us this time around since game log watchers won’t go near him. Even after the disaster last time, Lopez still has a 4.50 ERA to go with his 3.15 FIP and 3.49 xFIP. The HR/9 is still 0.68 and the K rate is right at 23%. He continues to show serious home/road splits with a 2.79 ERA at home through 19.1 IP. This is a good spot to try and get him low-owned.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw, Kwang Hyun Kim

Monkey Knife Fight

The Orioles are putting Jorge Lopez on the mound and that’s likely not to end well for him. The Braves are getting healthy and Lopez features a 6.38 ERA and a K rate under 18%. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall all have an ISO over .355 and a wOBA over .380.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13

It’s funny because I mentioned that Zac Gallen might have a rough start coming soon. I didn’t expect it to be last night by any stretch. Also, I didn’t expect he’d get hammered in such a fashion. It was a very tough slate for pitching last night, to be sure. One quick glance tells you that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13 isn’t any better because there is not a single pitcher on DK priced over $9,000. We have our work cut out for us.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Micheal Pineda

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 29th CH – 18th

That’s how rough this slate is for pitching. Michael Pineda, he of a career 4.02 ERA and 13 IP this season leads the pack. This could be a first for Pineda, who is almost exclusively a GPP pitcher but not today. He’s been good in his 13 IP, with a 24% K rate and the pitch data really favors him. The hard contact has been spectacular so far at just 25.7% and the swinging strike rate is 15.7%.

Now we add in the Indians have been a weak offense to RHP all season and we have one of the better matches on the slate. The fact that Pineda has thrown 81 and 104 pitches is excellent for us as well. It’s odd to get excited about, but Pineda makes the most sense in cash today.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CH – 2nd SL – 20

This is really just salary disrespect for Sixto at this point. He’s faced challenges already and has three of four starts above 18 DK, which is great return for this price. If you haven’t actually seen him yet, this kid is NASTY.

Philly doesn’t strike out a ton at 21% but I honestly don’t fear that in this spot. Good pitching wins more nights than it doesn’t. Sixto is good with a 26.6% K rate and a 14.4% swinging strike rate. Even if he wasn’t this talented, price alone would dictate we look at him in a big way today. In case you needed any extra juice, Sixto is an ex-Phillie. All the revenge today folks. Get aboard the Brian Tulloch Narrative Train.

Charlie Morton

Pitch Data – FB – 12th CB – 2nd

It’s not been a good year for Ol’ Ground Chuck. He’s only pitched 23.2 innings and things have gone poorly with a 4.94 ERA. The HR/9 has jumped up to 1.14 which is high for him and the K rate is down to 22.6%. This could be a spot he finds his footing a bit, since the Red Sox are flirting with a 25% K rate to RHP.

They also are above average in most offensive categories so this is still a dangerous setting for Morton. The good for Morton is the only two LHH that really scare you are Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. If he can get by them, he’s got RHH under a .300 wOBA and hasn’t given up a bomb. He’s under $8,000 and should approach 80 pitches. That’s good enough for me today.

Jonathan Stiever

Pitch Data – N/A, but throws a FB, CB, CH and SL

Let’s get a little nuts in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13. Stiever isn’t a name many outside White Sox fans and prospect gurus know (raises hand) but it doesn’t take much to find glowing words about him. He was ranked as the number five White Sox prospect before this year started. Ahead of him? Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal. That’s some good company.

He’s the cheapest we ever get a pitcher and debuts are a total grab bag. However, I love taking chances on talented kids when they get great matchups to start and this fits the bill. Detroit still leads the league in K% to RHP at over 28% and Stiever has displayed at least a 24% K rate at every stop so far (which hasn’t been many). This article from mlb.com gives some more background but this is an excellent gamble to take at salary.

Monkey Knife Fight

The Yankees and the Orioles both face lefties on the mound, which definitely leads us to like some hitters. We start with two Yanks, DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit. Both hitters are over .400 for the wOBA and Voit sports a .344 ISO. DJ Stewart for the Orioles was just white hot before two quiet games. This is a good spot to get back at it. Through 51 plate appearances, he has a 1.275 OPS, .528 ISO and a .507 wOBA.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12

It was another solid day for the Rotation as everyone written up performed pretty well, even if Lucas Giolito didn’t quite match his outcome from last time out. He was uber chalk in cash but we did nail a complete game with Luis Castillo. The slate tonight is tougher. I’m writing as the Giants and Padres were postponed for a positive Covid case. That means we almost surely won’t have that game on this slate, knocking off Dinelson Lamet and Kevin Gausman. Tonight is not full of great options but let’s find out who we like the most for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CT – 9th CB – 23rd CH – 22nd

Especially if the Giants game is PPD, Gallen is going to be the lock chalk in cash. He may have been anyways as he continues his breakout campaign. The ERA does continue to be over a run better than his xFIP and FIP which means he could have a rough start coming soon. Having said that, his 27.9% K rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate are great matches tonight.

Seattle has actually come down in K rate to only 22.5%, which is a significant improvement from he start of the season. The good news is they are still below average in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so Gallen should be able to prevent runs. He’s faced better offenses than the Mariners and come out with 20+ DK scores in those games. The fact that he controls the LHH to a .235 wOBA is in line with scoring that high tonight.

Kyle Hendricks

Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 19th CB – 9th

You know it’s a bit of a rough slate when we’re considering Hendricks in cash. He’s one of my least favorite pitchers for fantasy since he’s under 20% for his K rate (19.1%). That’s even more true when he’s flirting with $9,000 and this is really just a DK play for cash due to safety. The only time he’s faced the Brewers this year was his first start and it went for a CGSO and 45.5 DK.

Don’t expect that but the Brewers offense continues to be flat awful. They couldn’t even hit Jon Lester last night. What’s surprising is Hendricks has an 11.3% swinging strike rate, a career-high. With Milwaukee still whiffing at a 26.6% rate, I feel it’s best to just plug him in for cash and hope for the best ceiling.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 5th CH – 30th

You can make an argument for Sheffield over Hendricks in cash and save $1,000. He does have a better K rate at 21.9% but has the worse matchup as Arizona only whiffs 21.6% of the time. Sheffield does have an easier path with Ketel Marte on the IL, but is not as trustworthy at this point.

He does have just a 0.48 HR/9 but the hard hit rate is a touch scary at 46%. He’s surviving it with a fly ball rate under 30% but all it takes is a couple balls to get elevated. His swinging strike rate is worse than Hendricks as well, at just 9.1%. Sheffield has shown upside with three of seven starts over 18DK. However, he’s had three under 10 DK as well so I prefer him in GPP.

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 24th CH – 8th CB – 19th

This is possibly the most interesting spot for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12. Plesac has been fantastic this season with a 1.32 ERA, but the xFIP is 3.20 and the FIP is 2.89. The strikeout and walk rates are really where it gets tricky. In 2019 through 115.2 IP, they were 18.5% and 8.4% each. This year in 34 IP, they have jumped to 27% and 1.6%. It really seems like the truth should be somewhere in the middle. The one metric that does support the K rate is the improvement on the swinging strike rate from 9.5% to 13.9%.

The Twins do have a top-eight strikeout rate to RHP at 24.7% so there is upside for Plesac. It’s important to remember that they are also sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO and sixth in wOBA. There’s definite downside as well so this is strictly a priced-based GPP pick.

Monkey Knife Fight

We’re heading to one of the marquee games on the slate for the Astros vs the Dodgers. Julio Urias takes the hill for the Dodgers and he faces some tough hitters. Both George Springer and Alex Bregman have a wOBA over .355 and ISO’s over .265, with Springer being at a .333 ISO. On the Dodgers side, they get a lefty as well and their bets hitter is A.J. Pollock with a 1.054 OPS, .333 ISO and a .425 wOBA.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11

We took a night off last night and rain wreaked havoc with a lot of the pitching options on the slate. I’m not sure we really missed much of anything on Thursday and Wednesday was an unmitigated disaster. Let’s start fresh on this Friday and we definitely have some big names to sort through at the top of the salary range for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 7th CH – 15th SL – 27th

Giolito should be the overwhelming favorite for cash, even with Shane Bieber on the slate (more on him in a few minutes). The matchups are far different and Giolito faces off against the offense that whiffs the most to RHP in the league at 28.5%. The one other time Giolito faced the Tigers this year? He racked up 43 DK points and struck out 13 hitters.

Even if he doesn’t hit that mark again, his 34.9% K rate and 17.9% swinging strike rate are phenomenal targets. Both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.00, suggesting his ERA could actually be a little lower. The HR/9 is a career-low 0.82 and the splits are about dead equal. There’s very little to quibble with here.

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 21st CH – 18th FB – 26th

Maeda has been rock solid all season and there’s not a ton of reasons to think it changes tonight. The righty has faced the Indians twice and has scores of 23.7 and 28.3 in those two starts. It’s not going to be super ideal to use Maeda and Giolito together because that doesn’t leave a ton of salary for bats but it can be done.

Nobody is making hard contact on Maeda with just a 24.8% rate and the fly balls are barely over 30% as well. Cleveland is 27th in hard hit rate vs RHP this year, so hat’s a huge check mark for Maeda. They also whiff 24% of the time and the 4.4% walk rate for Maeda means Cleveland likely can’t use their third-highest 11.7% walk rate either. The smart play is Giolito but Maeda looks quite safe as well.

Kris Bubic

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 20th CB – 30th

It might seem odd to target a pitcher with an ERA approaching 5.00 inn cash, but let’s take a step back. Bubic has made seven starts and has faced the Cubs, the Twins twice and the White Sox three times. The fact he’s emerged with three double-digit DK scores is a miracle, frankly. All these teams have lefty mashers, even if the Cubs and Twins haven’t shown as much as should be expected. Pittsburgh is a little better to LHH but that just leaves them as a league-average offense.

The pitch data is incredible for Bubic and you won’t find it much better. The K rate for Bubic is only 20% but at his price you’re not going to need a ton of whiffs to pay off. He’s kept the fly balls low with only a 32.7% rate so I’m not sure the 1.54 HR/9 will stand up over time. We need someone to pair up with Giolito and if you choose salary for hitters, Bubic is my choice.

GPP Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 20th CT – 28th SL – 24th

We’re going to be quick here and it’s really just the matchup. Bieber has waned the Twins this year with 29 DK and 46 DK so it’s not like he’s incapable, it’s just I’m picking on the Tigers if paying up in cash. The Biebs has been frighteningly dominant with a 42.9% K rate and a 17.6% swinging strike rate. The ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 1.75. That’s simply absurd and I’d likely be heavier on Bieber in GPP than Giolito.

Luis Castillo

Pitch Data – FB – 15th CH – 29th SL – 20th

This will be the first time Castillo has faced the Cards and he’s had a weird season so far. The 3.95 ERA is way outside the 3.01 xFIP and 2.85 FIP. When that happens, I look to see if something stands out and the .387 BABIP fits the bill. That’s caused he strand rate to be only 67.3% which could be messing with some ratios. His K rate is a career-high 31.1% and the swinging strike rate is over 15%.

There’s going to be starts where it all comes together for Castillo, and this could easily be one of them. The Cards aren’t a giant K team, but they are almost dead last to the change. That’s the money pitch for Castillo and I’m very interested in him tonight as an alternative to the high end, bigger name pitchers. He might be a very sneaky play on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11.

Monkey Knife Fight

We can’t leave Friday’s slate without talking about it being #LesterDay! The Cubs southpaw is paying for being a fraud for a couple years now and is getting smashed with an ERA approaching 6.00. He’s given up a .362 wOBA, .858 OPS and 2.31 HR/9 to the right side of the plate. The Brewers have Avisail Garcia and Jedd Gyorko who both have ISO’s over .240 and wOBA’s over .435 to LHP. Keston Hirua is a K machine at nearly 40% but that’s less of a concern with Lester.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!