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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

We are almost to the end of the regular season and we do get a full slate tonight although most teams have packed it in for the season. With that said, the list of starters will continue to be relatively short as we can focus on exactly who is important and who isn’t in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

The bad news is there are not a lot of trustworthy arms tonight. The one that stands out the quickest is Clayton Kershaw. He and the Dodgers are clawing to stay out of the Wild Card spot and in his last start, Kershaw got smacked around. That’s not how he wants to go into the postseason so I fully expect him to throw 75-90 pitches and try to be in his best form. Kershaw is still using the slider as his primary pitch and if he qualified, it would be the highest-rated slider on FanGraphs. It just so happens that Milwaukee is 29th against that pitch and is 0.2 away from being dead last. That is not a good matchup for them tonight and they cannot move their seeding at all. The Brewers have also been seventh in K rate against lefties all year at 24% and Kershaw has a 30.5% K rate against righties with a 2.79 xFIP. He’s slated to face six righties and the pitcher spot and I’m willing to pay the premium. 

I would expect Kershaw to be chalky and that opens up a very interesting pivot in Sandy Alcantara. You could argue to play both but that is an expensive route to take and even though Miami doesn’t have a thing to play for, Alcantara is still pitching his typical workload. Philly could be eliminated by the time this game takes place but no matter what, Alcantara has been great this season. He’s also been in top form in Miami with a 2.95 xFIP, a 26.6% K rate, a 2.17 ERA, and a .235 wOBA. He has been worse against lefties on the year but a significant chunk of that has come from his road starts. The last start against the Phillies in Philly was rough but the first two generated at least 20 DK and had one over 30. Alcantara features a slider and changeup that both have a wOBA under .280 and a whiff rate over 30%. 

In that same game, Ranger Suarez should be very, very chalky again as well. DK did finally raise the price to what he deserved to be but he’s coming off a 40 DK point start. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Rich Hill was chalk last night and Suarez has been pitching much better than he has. Suarez is still rocking an elite combo of a 25.1% K rate and a 60.6% ground ball rate and that could not be better for DFS. We’re either getting points for the whiffs or the ball isn’t in the air to do a lot of damage. While his strikeout rate is higher against lefties at 31.4%, it’s still 22.8% against righties and the hard-hit rate is just 29.1%. The sinker and change are his main weapons with over 70 strikeouts and both are under a .260 wOBA. We could game stack this one in GPP. 

There are a bunch of talented pitchers that generally we like but face very difficult spots and I will not really be interested unless they draw a weird lineup. That list includes Shane McClanahan, Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, and Nestor Cortes. McClanahan especially could see a shorter start with the Rays locked into the number one seed. I think there are two other potential plays in Marco Gonzales and Jose Suarez, two lefties in the same game. I don’t particularly like the salary for Gonzales but he’s just a hair under averaging 19 DK points in the past 10 games. The crafty veteran lefty draws an Angels lineup that has been in the bottom-eight of all of our offensive categories since the deadline. He is insanely risky at this salary because his xFIP against righties is 5.64 and not typically what we talk about. However, the Angels have been so bad and Gonzales has been so strong that he is worth a look. 

Suarez is a lot cheaper but there is not a lot of safety here since the Mariners are fighting and Suarez is just not a stable option. The K rate is 20.3% but the swinging-strike rate is 11.2% which is fairly high. Seattle is 17th and 27th against the curveball and changeup, which make up almost 50% of the pitch types for Suarez. Now the lineup is important for him because he is rough against lefties with a .405 wOBA and a 4.98 xFIP, while the Mariners are projected for three. If that’s all, the .269 wOBA against righties and a 1.07 WHIP is much more appealing so we would need to know what he’s looking at. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle is fourth in K rate against lefties, either. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 Stacks 

I’m looking to afford the Kershaw/Suarez duo to start but I’m jamming in Blue Jays as well. They will get Thomas Eshelman as a long reliever and through 71 batters faced, he has a .427 wOBA, a 6.30 xFIP, and just a 7% K rate against the right side of the plate. He’s throwing a fastball almost half the time and Marcus Semien, George Springer, and Bo Bichette are in the top five of the team against that pitch. They also sit above a .340 wOBA and a .170 ISO. Springer and Semien are especially appealing with their ISO’s over .290 on the year and we know that if you can’t miss bats against the Jays, you’re not going to have much success. 

That means we need salary relief and we’re going to get in the Cubs. they’re always a risk because they whiff so much but at the same time, they have some hitters who have played well since the deadline like Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, and Ian Happ. All of these hitters have a wOBA over .335 and Schwindel is at a .415 mark, in addition to all of them being over a .200 ISO. They’re going to start with Daniel Hudson but he likely doesn’t stick around long and then we’re into the bullpen. That trio is plenty cheap for their performance and only Happ has a K rate above 19%. I’ll roll with that to get the pitching I want and at least three Blue Jays bats. 

  • White Sox against Wily Peralta
  • Royals against John Gant 
  • Red Sox against Josh Rogers
  • Mets lefties against Huascar Ynoa 
  • Orioles against Steven Matz

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15

There is a split slate of MLB action today but seeing how one of these slates features Jon Lester taking on the Mets, we’ll let Brian handle that game. Instead, we’ll focus on the rest of the 10 game slate tonight and the choices that come with that in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 so let’s get cracking!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

If you’re spending up on this slate, Julio Urias is sure to get the attention as he’s been outstanding in his last 10 games and especially in the last four. Since June, his ERA hasn’t been above 2.30, the wOBA hasn’t been above .263, and the FIP hasn’t been above 3.67. His K rate has really picked up lately as well, sitting over 27% since the start of August which is an increase over his 26.7% for the season. What is really exciting for the upside is he whiffs lefties at a 31% rate and the Arizona lineup currently projects to have two of them, as opposed to all righties. Since the deadline, Arizona has fallen to 18th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and is over 22% in K rate. They are also bottom 10 against the curveball, which has a .177 wOBA, 67 strikeouts, and a 26.5% whiff rate. 

Even against the Rangers, I’m not paying five digits for Jose Urquidy when he has a K rate barely above 21% and an xFIP of 4.40 and I’m still terrified to touch Sean Manaea. He just walked through the Jays and White Sox while only giving up three total earned runs but had a five-start stretch before that where he didn’t clear eight DK points. Joe Musgrove is a “fine” option I guess but being worse against lefties means the Giants are primed to give him some issues. I think there’s a whole bunch of pitchers priced like Aces but aren’t nearly close enough. 

The one who does have a clear path to success at his salary is Tylor Megill of the Mets. He’s not without his warts but the Cards being so righty-heavy are going to accentuate his strengths. Lefties have killed him with a .408 wOBA and a 6.31 FIP but there are likely to be just two lefties playing for the Cardinals. Against righties, Megill has been outstanding with a .226 wOBA, a K rate over 30%, and an xFIP of just 2.68. His slider is a big help and he uses it more to the right side with a .248 wOBA, 33.3% whiff rate, and 24 strikeouts. St. Louis is 15th against the slider but way into the negatives on FanGraphs and they are also bottom-five against the fastball. 


Huascar Ynoa misses out on the Ace tier just barely but he definitely catches my eye. He draws the Rockies Road matchup and Colorado is 20th against the slider, a big bump for Ynoa. We recapped all the numbers in yesterday’s edition but suffice to say, Colorado has been trash on the road. Ynoa does have some reverse splits with a .315 wOBA against righties and is slated to face six of them, but the xFIP against that side is 3.51, only .20 higher than lefties. It’s a little strange to see because his hard-hit rate against righty hitters is 25.5% and the ground ball rate is 53.8%. The HR/FB rate is a sky-high 27.6% so there are reasons the numbers don’t make a lot of sense. With the pitch data backing him up, Ynoa’s slider really looks like a weapon. It’s his primary pitch but has 53 strikeouts, a .240 wOBA, and a 38.2% whiff rate. 

This is going to be Cal Quantrill’s third time seeing the Twins in six turns, which is a little nerve-racking but the guy has pitched well for the most part. His change and slider have been used a little more lately but it’s not been anything crazy different. Both of those pitches are under a .255 wOBA and have a whiff rate of at least 20.4% (the slider is up at 31.7%) and Quantrill is pretty steady in his splits. My largest hangup is that he only has a 15.4% K rate against righties and should face five of them. The xFIP is also a concern as it is over 4.25 against each side of the plate so there are pans to failure here, but he at least deserves a mention. 

The only other pitcher I at least have a mild interest in is Ranger Suarez and even then, it’s a dangerous path to walk. The difference between his 1.38 ERA and 3.57 xFIP is noteworthy but he does have a K rate of 25% and the Cubbies are whiffing 29% of the time since the deadline. Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t have some potential on their side because they are also 12th or higher in wOBA, OPS, slugging, and sit sixth in ISO against lefties. The Cubs are 18th against the changeup and that has been a dynamite swing and miss pitch for Suarez, generating a 40.1% whiff rate so far. All of his pitches have a wOBA under .2500 but it’s really just the Cubs not being a pushover like the perception might be. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 Stacks 

I know they got smacked by *checks notes*….Jordan Lyles last night, but the Astros are crazy cheap tonight against Kohei Arihara. He’s getting destroyed by righties especially with a .426 wOBA, .304 average, 7.56 FIP, and a fly-ball/hard-hit combo over 43.5% each. Both of his main pitches against righties have an ISO over .276 and a hard-hit rate of at least 39%. Arihara doesn’t lean on any particular pitch more than 30% so I’m starting my Astros stack with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. They all have a wOBA over .345 and an ISO over .165 this season, with Bregman dragging those numbers down a little bit. He’s been on fire lately though, averaging almost 11 DK points the last 10 games. 

You can basically copy and paste the analysis from last night to tonight for the Yankees. They face a better lefty in John Means, but he’s had his issues and the Yankees saw all their salaries drop. We can mix and match with our favorite Astros, but Aaron Judge and Luke Voit fit very nicely. Means still throws his fastball a good bit and that’s what we’re chasing since he’s been prone to the long ball more often since dealing with an injury. Working with that outline leaves us with some options at pitcher and we can fill in one or two spots with a punt, just like last night. 

  • Braves against Antonio Senzatela 
  • Cleveland against Griffin Jax 
  • White Sox against Janson Junk 
  • A’s against Mike Minor 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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