MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9

Last night was a little rough since Walker Buehler was roundly awful and didn’t make it through three innings. Andrew Heaney really struggled but was so high-owned on DK cash he didn’t kill you. On the plus side, Lance Lynn and Sixto Sanchez both exceeded 20 DK even though Lynn hit three batters on the way to achieving it. This slate has some more varied options on paper and there are some heavy hitters on the high end of the salary range so let’s get to MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 20th FB – 19th SL – 29th CB – 28th

Darvish is the highest priced pitcher on the slate and it’s hard to argue. He’s been excellent and is in the discussion for a loaded NL Cy Young award. The ERA of 1.44 is matched by a tiny 2.01 FIP and 2.60 xFIP. The HR/9 is 0.54, the K rate is 33%, the swinging strike rate is 15.5%…Darvish has it all working this year.

Yesterday we saw the wind blow in at Wrigley and if Darvish gets that tonight, he’s even more appealing. Cincy is 11th in K rate, 19th in wOBA and OPS and 28th in average. They are sixth in ISO so there’s power in the lineup, but it may not matter if they can’t make contact.

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 9th CB – 14th

Maybe comeback isn’t the right word, but it’s awfully close to describing this season for Kershaw. His K rate is the highest since 2016 and his walk rate is sill just 4.5%. The WHIP is back to 2016 levels and his fly ball rate is under 25%. Even the swinging strike rate is the best it’s been since 2017.

He just destroyed this Arizona lineup the last time out to the tune of six IP with eight strikeouts. The pitch count was at 99 so we should feel safe from that angle. Arizona is only at a 21.3% K rate but the lineup is weakened against LHP with Starling Marte in Miami. If you think both he and Darvish sit between 28-32 DK points, there’s not a lot of reason to not save the $1,000 and pitch Kershaw.

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 20th

Dunning also throws a curve and a change, but has leaned on the fastball/slider combo about 88% of the time so far. Through his first 14 IP in the majors, Dunning has displayed K upside with a 30.5% rate. He also has a 2.79 FIP and 3.12 xFIP which are both lower than his 3.86 ERA. The swinging strike rate has been excellent at 17.5%, which makes me think that even with some regression the strikeout stuff is real.

Enter the matchup, which the Pirates are a soft one. They’re striking out over 25% of the time still. Additionally, they are dead last in OBP, OPS, ISO and wOBA. I think the best way to approach pitching on DK is picking one of Darvish or Kershaw (leaning the second) and pair him with Dunning to spend on bats.

GPP Options

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 25th CT – 1st SL – 22nd CB – 11th

I probably couldn’t mount a huge argument if you wanted to use Bauer for cash games, but I do feel Kershaw and Darvish are both safer. Bauer can get bit by the long ball on occasion and the Cubs do have the fourth-highest ISO to RHP and the sixth-highest OPS. What they have that makes this an appealing GPP spot for Bauer is the third-highest K rate at 25.9%.

Bauers’s walks are at a career-low 7.6% which is good because the Cubs are over 10% as a team. The fly ball rate of 46.2% could be an issue in Wrigley pending the weather. What it will come down to is how many LHH is in this lineup. The Cubs could put 5-6 in there and that’s where Bauer has struggled with the long ball at a 2.38 HR/9. We’ll see how the lineup and weather breaks, but a 30+ DK point game isn’t out of reach.

Zach Davies

Pitch Data – CH – 28th FB – 9th CT – 14th

I keep approaching Davies with caution, but he keeps right on producing. He’s gained 5.4% on the K rate this year to bring it up to 22.6% and the swinging strike rate is up, but still under 10%. He hasn’t picked up velocity and is still sitting under 90 MPH on his fastball and cutter. However, he does have about a 10 MPH difference in the changeup and that creates deception. That pitch is the best changeup vis FanGraphs rating in baseball. It’s a bit tough to explain the one reason why he’s been this good this year.

Having said that, he draws the Colorado on the road flowchart matchup and is under $9,000. They’re over the 27% threshold in K rate on the road, so they should help Davies’ average K rate. Davies has been remarkably consistent with seven of eight starts scoring at least 18 DK. People are likely to blow right by him for the big names in the upper tier, leaving Davies in what should be a great GPP spot.

Pablo Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 26th

Last but not least in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9, we turn to Pablo Sanchez. Sanchez throws a cutter and a curve but he lives on the fastball/changeup duo. He’s starting to show some of the strikeout ability at 23.6% and has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard with just a 0.47 HR/9. That can be explained by the 20.2% fly ball rate, which is fifth-best among starting pitchers this year.

Atlanta isn’t exactly the best matchup for that metric at the sixth-fewest ground balls but they are also a top 12 team in K rate. The other fear is the splits to LHH. Sanchez does have some issue to LHH, with a .327 wOBA and just a 16.6% K rate. I’d like to see what the lineup looks like tonight. Last night there was only two lefties in the lineup. If they roll out seven RHH again, I want in on Sanchez’s 33% K rate to that side of the plate.

Monkey Knife Fight

Typically we have been talking offenses in this space, but I love one of the pitching plays on this slate. It’s quite expensive to play Darvish and Bauer together, so why not target them on MKF instead? I like both pitchers to go over their strikeout totals in this spot.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8

Last night was once again mostly solid across the board, with Hyun Jon Ryu being the only real miss. My concerns with Max Scherzer were unfounded as he went for 31 DK. Likewise, Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen had a pitchers duel on the West Coast and both smashed through the late night…until Gallen went backwards in a hurry giving up four earned. We’ll continue to try and make all the right pitches in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8 and the options are spread all over the board tonight.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 
And for a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 30th CT – 9th CB – 14th SL – 10th

We just saw Buehler versus this D-Backs offense and things went well for him with 21 DK points on just 71 pitches. Considering he just came off the IL, I would have to think we see about 90 pitches this time around which would leave him around the 25 DK point window in my mind. The strikeouts have made their way back for Buehler who is up over 28% and the swinging strike rate is almost to the 2019 mark as well.

The fly balls and hard contact are both good to acceptable, although the fly balls at 42.1% isn’t my favorite metric. Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate and Kevin Gausman just racked up nine strikeouts against this D-Backs squad last night. It can be done and Buehler is likely lock and load in cash, carrying a high ceiling.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 30th CH – 24th

Picking a SP2 on DK is pretty difficult tonight. There’s going to be two that are in GPP consideration that I can’t quite talk myself into but there’s a strong case. I generally go with the cheapest SP2 that I like in this spot and Heaney fits the bill. That might be the first time I’ve ever said that, but here we are. The K rate is 26.3% which is more than fine but the big facet for Heaney is the HR/9. His career mark is 1.46 and this season it’s 0.41. That’s a massive improvement, and suddenly he’s the horse in the rotation. He hasn’t thrown under 97 pitches the past four starts.

As far as the matchup, the Rangers have scuffled with LHP all year. Their K rate is 24.8% and they still lead the league in ground ball rate to that side of the mound. The team ISO only ranks 24th and the wOBA is 28th. It’s a tough slate for SP2 but I’m rolling with Heaney.

GPP Options

Lance Lynn

Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 15th CB – 7th

The only thing keeping Lynn out of cash where he is normally a mainstay is the matchup. I’m always a bit leery for paying top dollar for pitchers where the strikeouts just might not be there. The Angels are barely over 21% but Lynn is over 27% on his own. The good news is the pitch data really does favor Lynn. He throws the fastball almost 70% of the time and that’s the worst pitch for the Angels. The curve is under 9% so that shouldn’t kill him.

The swinging strike rate is a hair scary. It’s only 11.1% and is down almost 1.5% from last year. That could suggest some small regression for the whiffs and this would be a spot for it to happen. His 2.67 ERA isn’t really matched by the 3.92 FIP or the 4.27 xFIP so this is why I favor Heaney. Lynn does routinely throw 100+ pitches so he could grind his way to a solid game.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 26th SL – 8th CB – 8th

This is the other pitcher I at least had thoughts of for cash just based on salary. However, the blowup potential is just too high for cash and I’d rather punt a bat. That doesn’t mean the impressive young buck for the Marlins can’t pay off here. Atlanta does whiff almost 25% of the time so if he can avoid them hammering the fastball, it could be a big night. Sanchez is just under a 14% swinging strike rate and has whiffed 26.8% of the hitters he’s faced.

Opposing hitters aren’t just striking out. Sanchez has held both the fly ball and hard hit rates under 30% each and his ERA is just 2.37. His xFIP matches mostly at 2.66 and the FIP is 3.36, which is nothing too shabby. We only have a 19 IP sample but Sanchez has been excellent so far. I just can’t say he’s safe for cash.

Mike Clevinger

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 4th CB – 29th CH – 28th

Someone has to explain to me why Clevinger saw his price jump by $1,200 coming off a single digit DK point game. That makes no sense. I’m still interested because the flow chart says the Rockies are on the road, and that means the opposing pitcher is in play. They whiff nearly 28% of the time and Clevinger might need all the help he can get.

He’s been traded and sent to the alternate training site, contributing to making just five starts so far. Still, the metrics aren’t good. The 20% K rate is massively lower than the career 27.1% mark. The 1.57 HR/9 to go with a FIP of 5.07 and xFIP of 4.87 don’t look great either. You’re hoping the easy matchup wakes him up, but you’re not getting a discount on him either. It’s the main reason why he’s not cash on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8.

Monkey Knife Fight

One of the best parts about Monkey Knife Fight is the ability to not have to worry about salary. For instance, I want Dodgers vs Luke Weaver tonight. He’s giving up at least a .357 wOBA and LHH have a 3.31 HR/9. Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts and Corey Seager are all over a .280 ISO and a .330 wOBA to RHP this year. They are also a combined $17,300 on DK. That doesn’t matter here!

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7

Yesterday was mostly good, with only Aaron Nola being the miss. It looked like Tyler Glasnow was headed for disaster but salvaged a solid 19 DK. You really needed Jacob deGrom over Shane Bieber or Glasnow to do extremely well, but I’ll happily keep stacking up good days. We have some talent on Monday’s slate but we could be picking some names that aren’t the biggest on the slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7.

Cash Options

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 10th CT – 26th CB – 23rd CH – 4th

We’ll get to Max Scherzer in a minute, but Gallen is actually my first choice here. The Giants are only at a 22.3% K rate which is the 10th best to righties, but Gallen is one of the quietest aces in baseball right now. He brings a 27.8% K rate and a 12.3% swinging strike rate into this spot, along with a 1.80 ERA. The 3.57 FIP and 3.66 xFIP do say regression, but not to the extent we have to freak out over. A 96.1% strand rate tends to do that to those metrics.

What I really like with Gallen here is he holds lefties to a .234 wOBA and .169 average. That’s preferable with these Giants and the K rate to that side is still 25.3%. He’s actually averaged more DK points per start than Scherzer and the price difference maybe shouldn’t be $1,200.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 4th

We weren’t on Lamet last time out with the matchup and he was fine, but not great. This spot is far different and we’re back on the train tonight. The pitch data might scare me if Lamet wasn’t so talented and didn’t have a 31.7% K rate. The Rockies continue to be a bad offense on the road and has a 24.4% K rate when away from Coors. That includes a 24th ISO and 26th wOBA.

Lamet is fairly equal to both sides of the plate with K rate and wOBA so there’s not a glaring weakness. I’m not a fan normally of the 47.6% fly ball rate but he’s survived it all season long. Missing bats at a 14.4% clip helps and anytime Lamet is under $9,000, he’s got my full attention.

Kevin Gausman

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SF – 5th CH – 30th

The D-Backs are good vs the splitter but it’s such a low usage pitch across the majors that it’s not a deciding factor to me. Additionally, even though Arizona isn’t a big K rate team at just 20.3%, Gausman is just super cheap and doesn’t need eight K’s or more to pay off.

I’m not sure I understand why he’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate. The 4.43 ERA isn’t bad at all and the 3.76 xFIP and 3.09 FIP suggest even better production. He has a 31% K rate and just a 5.3% walk rate. The hard contact is spiked at 48.1% but that’s clearly not killing him. The small worry is the .326 wOBA vs LHH, but this is really not so scary I wouldn’t use him as an SP2 on DK for cash games.

GPP Options

Max Scherzer

Pitch Data – FB – 21st SL – 7th CH – 7th

It’s absolutely possible that I wind up regretting not putting Max into the cash pile. He’s under $10,500 and that has not been the case often the past couple of years. However, I continue to point out that Scherzer is showing signs of slipping, however minimal. The K rate is 32.5% and many pitchers would love that. It’s the lowest for Scherzer since 2016 and the walks are the highest in a decade. Maybe it’s just the workload. He’s hit at least 170 IP since 2009 and the majority have been over 200. The 395 ERA would be the highest since 2012.

Perhaps my biggest worry is the way the Rays setup. They are generally lefty heavy and Scherzer has legitimately been getting hit by LHH. Not like in past years where it was just for some power either. We’re talking a .307 average, .875 OPS and .369 wOBA over 99 lefties faced. That includes a 1.66 HR/9. He’s probably the likeliest on this slate to whiff double-digit hitters but might give up 3-5 runs in the process.

Hyun Jin Ryu

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CH – 5th CT – 5th CB – 20th

This is only for the brave at heart and is the diciest pick of the bunch. On small slates like MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7, it sometimes well-calculated gambles can pay off. New York is still quite banged up and whiffs the ninth-highest to LHP at 24.3%. They are 20th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The highest rank is ISO…at 16th. Not exactly the most frightening numbers.

Ryu’s first two starts were awful. He looked poor, the velocity was down, nothing went right. Since then, he’s not scored under 19 DK in his next six starts. Two of those came against Baltimore, one of the best offenses vs LHP on paper in baseball. His best came against Atlanta, which is also set up well to LHP. Ryu keeps the ball out of the air at 25.2% and the K rate is 27.6%. Most of the field doesn’t pitch against the Yankees, so let’s be different.

Monkey Knife Fight

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees tonight and through 77 RHP faced, they’ve tuned him up for a .394 wOBA, .945 OPS and a 2.60 HR/9. Vlad Guerrero and Randal Grichuk both possess ISO’s over .340 to LHP this year and Tellez is at a .345 wOBA himself. It’s a bonus to get both, because DK you can only pick one of Vlad or Rowdy “Roddy” Tellez.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4

Yesterday’s pitching slate was about as ugly as it looked on paper. Clayton Kershaw was dominant as we mostly expected, but was one of the chalkier plays of the year. Both Dylan Cease and Mike Clevinger were under 10 DK points as we illustrated some of their issues. The Kershaw and Taijuan Walker combo was really the way to go. The MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4 looks far better with many more options to sift through and narrow down our pool!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 11th FB – 11th SL -16th CB – 21st

The pitch data isn’t a slam dunk matchup, but Darvish also throws a change and split finger. Since he doesn’t rely one one particular pitch more than 40%, I’m not overly concerned about the pitch data. Darvish has been dominant through seven starts, racking up a 1.47 ERA with a 2.02 FIP and a 30.8% K rate. He’s even got a higher BABIP at .314 and he’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball. He’s only had one season with 140 IP or more with w BABIP over .300, so that could come down.

Darvish should get five RHP in the Cardinals lineup and he’s whiffing that side of the plate 39.1% of the time. Even the lefties aren’t the biggest concern, and two of them sport a K rate over 25%. In cash games, there’s no reason not to pay for Darvish who has hit at least 22 DK in six of seven starts.

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 20th CB – 25th CH – 28th

Dunning is only throwing the curve and change about 8% but with such a small sample, I decided to include them as well. He’s still under $6,000 which catches your eye immediately. He’s showing his promise over his first two starts, racking up 14.2 and 24.7 DK points in each. The metrics also look excellent, compiling a 2.89 ERA with a 2.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. The K rate is an eye-popping 40% through 9.1 IP and he’s only walked two hitters. That type of control is impressive for a rookie.

The Royals are a top 12 offense as far as K rate goes, so Dunning has that going for him. Even though the Royals did just see him, we really only need 15-18 DK points to be happy. He is projected to see five lefties, but they have a combined 23.4% K rate themselves. Only Alex Gordon has a wOBA over .300 vs RHP since the start of 2019. This is a good spot and the price is too cheap.

Dustin May

Pitch Data – FB – 7th CT – 19th

I want to be clear that May is a CASH ONLY play for me, simply because I don’t think he gets smashed. He’s shown little upside so far, perhaps because he throws his fastball/cutter combo 85% of the time. Mixing in something else might help the K rate rise above 16.1%. Regardless, we usually have some interest in pitchers when the Rockies are on the road. They whiff 24% of the time and are 25th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. May has started seven games and only has double digit DK in three, so I have no interest in GPP.

GPP Options

Jack Flaherty

Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 28th CB – 14th

Anytime Flaherty is under $10,000, he deserves a strong look. He actually is my favorite GPP pitcher for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4. With how the Cardinals season got derailed, he’s had to work to stretch back out. He was up to about 85 pitches last outing so we can expect him to be full go today. The K rate has dipped down to 23.3% form almost 30% last year but again, judging him off his first four starts seems unfair. The whiffs should come back in no time.

Even without the strikeouts, Flaherty is only allowing a 32% hard contact rate and a 22% fly ball rate. That’s a great mix and the 14.4% swinging strike rate is better than it was in 2019. The Cubs have a good offense but they also are a bit feast or famine. They rank only 16th in average and whiff at the third-highest rate in baseball. Flaherty could put it all together tonight.

Zach Davies

Pitch Data – FB – 16th CH – 27th CT – 18th

I’m not exactly sure where this Davies season has come from, but he does have my interest tonight. Oakland is a similar offense to the Cubs – low average, but goo OBP team with a high ISO and wOBA. That certainly is concerning, but the pitch data really skews to Davies. It looks even better when you notice he throws that change almost 41% and that’s the pitch the A’s really scuffle with.

Here’s the key to this matchup – how Davies handles the RHH. Oakland is a little less RHH heavy with the addition of Tommy La Stella, but Davies is tough to lefties with a .176 wOBA. He gives a .315 wOBA and a .737 OPS but he whiffs them at a 30.1% rate. Oakland’s projected RHH have a K rate above 25% tonight. Davies could get hammered, but if he controls the RHH and gets his K’s, he could also easily top 20 DK.

Corbin Burnes

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CT – 23rd CH – 16th SL – 21st CB – 16th

We’ve watched the Indians struggle all season so far and I’m going to turn the tables tonight and use a pitcher against them. Through 32.1 IP this year, Burnes might be figuring out how to harness his raw stuff, compiling a 2.78 ERA and a 2.45 FIP. Even the xFIP at 3.75 really isn’t that bad when you have a 35.1% K rate. Cleveland strikes out 23.5% of the times and is in the bottom half, if not lower than 20th in almost every major offensive category this year.

The one aspect that could get Burnes into trouble is the walks. The Indians lead the league in walk rate to righties and Burnes does have a huge 13% walk rate. It’s the main reason he’s not a cash option to me but the plus side is his K rate is steady to both sides of the plate. The walk rate is a hair lower to LHH, which is a nice aspect vs Cleveland. Burnes has 20 DK point upside tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

We’re going to New York tonight as Rick Porcello and Jake Arrieta take the mound. Neither pitcher is having a good year, as Arrieta is giving up at least a .341 wOBA to each side and a 1.64 HR/9 to LHH. Porcello is well over a .400 wOBA to RHH so this is a great spot to chase the offenses.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3

It was another very solid night for the Rotation as nobody got really blown up. Max Scherzer wasn’t good for his price, but we talked about he was the plug and play option in cash. At 65%, he didn’t hurt you in that format. Zac Gallen continues to prove why he’s in play every single start by dominating the Dodgers, and Triston McKenzie was on point. Maybe there’s reasons Cleveland wasn’t holding onto Mike Clevinger for dear life. We’ll get to him later in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3 as he might be prominent on just a six game slate that locks at 4 PM!

Cash Options

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 6th CB – 11th

I made an off-hand comment on a live stream a few weeks ago about Kershaw being a safe option on that particular slate. I guess Kershaw didn’t appreciate that, because he has been that guy most of 2020. The K rate is just under 30% and the ERA is 1.80. That’s likely a hair misleading since Kershaw has a 100% strand rate but there’s also no reason to expect major regression either.

He’s throwing the slider over 40%, which might seem like a bad match vs Arizona. However, Kershaw is in the top 20 of slider value on FanGraphs rating. Eight of the pitchers rated ahead are relievers, so he’s 11th among starters. The D-Backs only have a 19.4% K rate but they also sport a .287 wOBA and .107 ISO vs LHP. That was with Starling Marte, who is now in Miami. Kershaw is the lock and load cash pitcher on a six game slate.

Mike Clevinger

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 16th CB – 12th CH – 15th

I’m not overly in love with Clevinger here, but playing cash it’s important to match ownership. I would have to imagine Clevinger is a very popular SP2 paired with Kershaw with a lack of alternatives. Now, the pitch data actually doesn’t look all that bad for Clevinger. He’s pitching for the Padres for the first time so we don’t know exactly how prepared he is as far as off the field stuff. Moving from Cleveland to San Diego is a big change. Still, Clevinger is easily one of the most talented pitchers on this slate.

The Angels continue to not be a big strikeout team at just 21.3%. Clevinger has seen his K rate plummet this season to just 22.6%, down over 10% from last season. His walks are up as well but hopefully he embraces a fresh start. He’s been slightly better to RHH even though both sides are over a .330 wOBA. The Angels are projected for seven RHH so Clevinger is a fine option for cash, though there’s risk involved.

GPP Options

Dylan Cease

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 24th CH – 27th CB – 26th

If we see Cease picking up some steam in ownership for cash, I would be fine replacing Clevinger in that format. You can argue Cease has been the safer pitcher as it is, although they’ve both had one bad start. The fear with Cease is his K rate has plummeted as well, to a measly 17.6%. He’s still walking a ton of hitters as well at 11.8% and that’s not typically the profile I want for $9,500.

Both sides of the plate are over a .345 wOBA, which is pretty scary. The Royals are 24th in walk rate which hopefully limits the downside for Cease in that facet. They also have a projected five RHH, which Cease at least gets to a 22% K rate. Both he and Clevinger have some frightening metrics, which is why I prefer Clevinger in cash and Cease in GPP as things stand.

Taijuan Walker

Pitch Data – FB – 12th SL – 19th SF – 26th CB – 7th

Do I trust Walker? Not even a little bit. Is he worth the gamble on this mess of a pitching slate under $5,000? You bet. I’ll reiterate that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3 is tough today. He’s another pitcher that I’ll be interested to see what happens for ownership. Will the masses be willing to risk putting him with Kershaw in cash? I lean no, but it could be something that happens. There’s not a pitcher I love for today, so may as well spend a hitter’s salary on one.

Now in fairness, Walker really hasn’t been that bad this year. The ERA is 3.27 and the FIP and xFIP are both under 5.00, at least. The K rate is average at just 21.2% but Boston does whiff 25.1% of the time to RHP. Walker has displayed big splits this year. RHH have only a .209 wOBA while the left side has a .382 wOBA. Boston is projected for only four lefties, one of which is Jonathan Arauz. If Walker can get you to 12-15 DK, he’s a worthy investment.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

The Indians and Padres have hit for us the last two nights so let’s keep it going! We’re heading to Philly today because Zach Eflin (don’t call me Efron) is pitching. The one thing Eflin cannot do is get lefty hitters out. They have racked up a .372 average, 1.181 OPS, .488 wOBA and a 2.89 HR/9 through 50 at-bats this season. With those kinds of ratios, it’s time to attack him with Nationals LHH!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2

We kept the momentum rolling last night with four of our five pitchers performing very well! In Discord, we moved off Josh Lindblom after seeing some projected ownership and that proved to be the right call as he lagged behind everyone else. Tonight’s slate is a tough one to navigate. There’s a few pitchers of interest, but the salary seems pretty high. We might nee to look at pitching more as a product of the slate as opposed to just their salary. Either way, let’s jump in and figure out which pitcher’s are going to be worth it tonight in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2!

Cash Options

Max Scherzer

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 13th CH – 1st CT – 14th CB – 4th

This is clearly not the best spot for the pitch data for Scherzer, but given his price compared to others I’m not going to worry too much. It’s still Scherzer. He’s still the victim of a massive BABIP of .372 but the swinging strike rate is almost 16%. The K rate has really not suffered this year since it’s still at 34.4% overall.

The key most nights for Scherzer is the opposing lineup composition. Lefties have been an issue for power for years, but now they’re just hitting him all over. The average is .301, the wOBA is .365 and the HR/9 is 1.47. Philly has four projected lefties, including Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius. The other two lefties of Jay Bruce and Roman Quinn wouldn’t strike fear into me (though the three that can produce power are really fun one-offs) and Max is still under $10,500. He’s plug and play in cash with four starts of double digit K’s.

Triston McKenzie

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 25th CH – 28th

McKenzie just fits too well with Scherzer in cash to ignore, let alone the matchup looks pretty nice as well. We’ve seen two starts from the young righty and they’ve been on the opposite end of the spectrum. One was 33 DK and one was 7, so there’s still some risk. McKenzie really didn’t pitch that poorly the last start and was only allowed 84 pitches. The Royals do have the 11th highest K rate to RHP this year so McKenzie should be able to take advantage of that.

In his two starts, the 34.2% K rate certainly stands out. Granted, one start came against the Tigers but that was also McKenzie’s debut. The 12.8% swinging strike rate is highly encouraging, as is the 33.3% hard hit rate The concern is the 52.4% fly ball rate, which always has the ability to get ugly. It’s too early to tell if this sticks, but LHH have had the best success so far with a .303 wOBA and both homers. KC has four lefties projected, but they are all under a .330 wOBA to RHP since last year.

GPP Option

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 7th CB – 13th SL – 6th

Since pricing is a little tough, I feel strongly on the Scherzer and McKenzie pair in cash. However, there’s a handful of pivots that I’m interested in as well. Buehler stands out as a perfect pivot to Max since they are virtually the same price. Since Buehler only missed one start, he shouldn’t be extremely limited here. The last time we saw him he was routing the Rockies to the tune of 35 DK points.

It’s been a rough year for Buehler with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.71 FIP. The 1.80 HR/9 is a massively different mark for Buehler and it’s very out of character. He leans on that fastball over 60% of the time so the pitch data might favor him a bit more than the surface looks. What could really work for Buehler tonight is the K rate to the LHH. It sits at 32.6% with a 2.56 FIP. Arizona has seven projected lefties tonight, leaving Buehler with some serious ceiling.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 14th

Lamet is typically a cash game staple for me but he actually got priced up for once. I’m still interested in him on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2. He hasn’t gone past five innings the past two games and that is a small concern, but the pitch data looks good for him. The fears are the Angels are second in walk rate at 12% and Lamet walks 9% of the hitters he faces and can be a little wild. Also, while he has a 32.9% K rate, the Angels are under 22% as a team.

The other really concerning part is the fly ball rate Lamet displays. He’s at 47.1% and as a team, the Angels are leading the league at a 41.7% fly ball rate themselves. This start could go really well for Lamet if he has his control, but could get really ugly as well. I have no interest in cash tonight.

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 2nd CT – 3rd CB – 1st CH – 16th

This is not a good matchup on paper for about any pitcher in the majors, but Gallen has faced this gauntlet once. He walked away with 23 DK points and nobody will play him tonight. Gallen has a good combo of not allowing hard contact or fly balls with both rates under 35% on the season.

The Dodgers lineup is ridiculous up and down, but if you have a preference, you’d like the pitcher to be slightly better vs LHH. That’s the case for Gallen with a .261 wOBA and .195 average. The K rate drops but if he can whiff some of the righties lower in the order and survive the top, it’s not unthinkable to get another 23 DK from him tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

The Padres take on Julio Teheran tonight, and to say Teheran has been poor is a massive understatement. LHH alone have a .483 wOBA through 37 hitters and RHH are at .354. The Padres should be in line for a big night and if Eric Hosmer happens to not start, Mitch Moreland should. He could slide right in.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1

Yesterday was mostly solid once again as the two main pitchers in Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow both were right around 60 DK points combined. We might not have four pitchers that can combine for that score tonight. Yesterday the options were fairly pricey, but at least they were trustworthy. Those style of options are in relatively short supply tonight. That doesn’t mean we don’t have some really fun options so let’s get to work on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1!

Cash Options

Aaron Nola

Pitch Data – FB – 17th CH – 4th CB -12th

I’ll admit, I’m not exactly the biggest fan of Nola over $10,000 but I would guess he carries pretty heavy ownership in cash settings, especially on DK. He did just score 27.6 last game against this same team, but the Nationals are not typically a team I attack. They have the third-lowest K rate to RHP and a top 12 mark in wOBA.

The flip side is Nola is a very talented pitcher. His K rate has spiked to 34.8%, which is a little over 8% his career mark. Nola is generating a healthy 12.7% swinging strike rate. He has never allowed a fly ball rate over 32.4% his entire career, and that’s in line this season as well. One aspect that’s worth noting as well – he has a 2.05 ERA at home through 26.1 IP this season with just a .196 wOBA. I’m likely to spend down in GPP tonight, but cash games I’m looking to ride with the ownership I expect.

Framber Valdez

Pitch Data – FB – 26th CB – 17th CH – 19th

I wanted to pitch Valdez on Sunday, but that was not to be. Instead, we’ll turn to him tonight in what shapes up to be an excellent spot for him. The pitch data is a check mark in his favor since the Rangers are bottom half vs all three pitches. Valdez has really been a big part of the Astros rotation this year, and they needed it. He’s compiled a 2.35 ERA with a FIP and xFIP both under 2.85 to back that up. The K rate has jumped to a career-high 26% while the walks have gone to a career-low 5.8%. When he’s not whiffing hitters, the fly ball rate is just 17.6%.

From the Texas standpoint, they strike out the seventh-most times against LHP and rank second in ground ball rate. That really plays directly into what Valdez has been doing well this year and the price doesn’t reflect his outcome tonight. He’s taken out the Angels twice, A’s and at Coors Field. Valdez is a really nice fit in all formats tonight.

GPP Options

Ian Anderson

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CH – 10th CB – 8th

Anderson really can’t be a cash option against the Red Sox, but I am quite interested. Anytime we get a prospect in the top 50 in all of baseball under $7,000, I’m interested. When he’s coming off a debut that he flirted with a no-hitter for awhile, all the better. Anderson generated a respectable 11.1% swinging strike rate in that first start. It does have to be said that his 2019 AAA numbers were atrocious in 24.2 IP, but it’s not uncommon to see improvements at the major league level.

If playing Anderson, you’re hoping that he can exploit the 24.6% K rate the Red Sox have shown to RHP so far this year. Despite the big names they boast, Boston is just about average to slightly below in every major offensive category we value. Surely they can spring up and hit any pitcher any given night, but this is a spot worth a gamble at Anderson’s salary.

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 16th CH – 24th CB – 22nd

Plesac is returning from his “banishment” from the Indians roster and is walking into a pretty solid spot. He’s only started three games this season but tallied a 1.29 ERA with a 2.37 FIP to match. The K rate was an excellent 31.2% while the walk rate was only 2.6%. His swinging strike rate also took a significant leap from 9.5% in 2019 to 13.5% this season.

The Royals are a top 12 K rate team at 24.4% so far this year and there’s nothing in the pitch data that should be all that scary. The Royals also rank 24th and 26th in OPS and wOBA, so this should be a fine night to use Plesac. My only hesitation in cash would be he’s had an extended break, and that could have negative effects. I’d prefer Valdez in cash but wouldn’t fight if you went Plesac.

Josh Lindblom

Pitch Data – No pitch is used over 33%

This is perhaps the riskiest play of MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1. Lindblom is really all over the board on pitch usage with a fastball, slider, cutter, curve, change and split-finger. He’s under $7,000 and you’re playing him hoping he can strike out enough hitters to make it worth it, because he’s going to give up runs. You could argue he’s due for some positive regression. The ERA is an awful 6.31 but the FIP is 4.50 and the xFIP is 3.88. With a BABIP of .356 and a HR/9 of 1.75, it’s easy to see why the results and metrics haven’t matched up yet.

The K rate of 31.6% is what interests me here. Detroit still leads the league in K rate at 28.6% so this is the perfect spot for Lindblom in the K metrics. The Tigers have been better offensively lately, grinding their way to an average ranking the past two weeks. This spot is certainly not risk-free, but the K upside makes it worth a shot.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. Hop over to Monkey Knife Fight and sign up using promo code “WinDaily” to receive a deposit match up to $50 AND receive 3 MONTHS FREE to Win Daily’s GOLD Membership!

Matt Harvey is on the mound tonight and since he’s not remotely in play for us, I’m looking to the Indians tonight. Harvey has given up a wOBA of at least .403 to each side of the plate in his 5.2 IP so far and he’s not a major league pitcher at this juncture. Go Indians!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31

We kept the ball rolling yesterday as all six pitchers were solid on the mound! Do we get bonus points for wanting to play Deivi Garcia? I’m asking for a friend. It’s me, I’m the friend. Garcia was excellent in his big league debut and only would have cost us $4,000. I had a plan to use Garcia and Dane Dunning. They would have combined for 47.8 DK points for just $8,500. The Yankees deprived us of that but we’re on to Monday night. We have some really interesting options at various price points tonight so let’s go to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31!

Cash Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 23rd CT – 12th SL – 18th

I’m not sure there’s much else to say about Bieber through seven starts. He has a 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP and 1.57 xFIP. The K rate is 42.9% and the walk rate is only 5.1%. His fly ball rate is only 26.7% and hitters swing and miss 18.6% of the time. There is not a single statistical reason to not go after Bieber as the lock in cash games tonight, especially with the Royals sporting a 24% K rate as a team.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 15th

The name “Yankees” might score some folks for cash, but $8,400 on DK for a pitcher that has a 39.4% K rate is underpriced. New York’s projected lineup includes Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner. Due respect to these major league players, but that’s not murderer’s row. Additionally, Glasnow is facing a projected five LHH tonight. He strikes out that side of the plate 41.4% and only gives up a .270 wOBA.

Glasnow screams positive regression through his 28 IP. His BABIP is .345, compared to .265 last season. The ERA is inflated at 5.14 but the FIP is 3.52 and the xFIP is 2.75. The walk rate is a concern at 11.5% and New York does walk plenty. Still, the strikeout upside at this salary is just too much to ignore. He just faced the Yanks two starts ago and scored 21.8 DK on just 88 pitches.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 7th SL – 23rd

It’s pretty difficult to find any pitcher under Glasnow’s salary in cash tonight, so I’ll be more likely to work around a Bieber/Glasnow pair than anything else. Giolito is right in the mix himself, coming into this game on absolute fire. The last two games have produced just three hits, two walks and 26 strikeouts through 16 IP.

The negative is the matchup itself since the Twins lineup can give anyone issues. They waxed Giolito in the season opener for seven earned runs so he’s going to be eager for some revenge. I’m not overly worried coming off a no-hitter since he only threw 101 pitches. Minnesota is top half of the league in all major offensive categories, but they also whiff the seventh-most vs RHP.

Max Fried

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 16th CB – 5th

It’s not often we chase a lefty vs the Red Sox but Fried is so talented I’m not that averse to it. It’s very difficult to get a ball into the air on him since he’s only given up a 25.7% fly ball rate so far. The hard hit rate is also very low at 31.7% to go with a 12.0% swinging strike rate.

Boston is decidedly average though the offensive categories we look at, which does help Fried out a little bit. The 21.2% K rate for the Sox isn’t high at all but if Fried can go six or seven strong with five whiffs and one or two earned, he’s going to pay off. The 1.35 ERA and 2.28 FIP isn’t an accident.

Trevor Williams

Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CH – 22nd

I’ll be upfront and say I’m not a big fan of this play but Williams can actually produce some decent games. He also has the tendency that when things get bad, they get bad so he’s a GPP only special. We’ve been picking on the Brewers all year and I don’ see much that has changed.

They are third in K rate at 27.4% and bottom 10 everywhere else. They are also seventh in ground ball rate and that’s huge for Williams. He’s scaled back his sinker usage to just 7% this year after 14% last year. He’s not a good pitcher, but four of his six starts have ended with more than 12 DK points. I’d take that tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

We don’t get to talk about Coors Field in a pitching article, so we’ll use them on MKF! We have a lefty Padre since German Marquez has a massive weakness to LHH and Cronenworth has hit .361 this year. For the Rockies, facing Garrett Richards shouldn’t be much of an issue so we’ll just pick two of their best hitters!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!