MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.25

We’re back after a day off and the last time we had an article, it went really well for the team! The only miss was Sixto Sanchez, which we didn’t have a big piece of in the first place. Even the Monkey Knife Fight prop smashed to a 5x return! This is the last Friday slate of the season and we’re looking to replicate the big day from Wednesday for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.25!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 25th FB – 4th SL – 21st CB – 2nd

After seeing how chalky Shane Bieber was on Wednesday, I would expect Darvish to be the same in cash because the public didn’t fear the matchup. Tonight features fewer pivots as well, so I’m rolling Darvish in cash. As Brian pointed out in Picks and Pivots, the key for Darvish high the construction of the White Sox lineup.

There are a projected five right handers in the White Sox lineup with a cumulative K rate of 23.2%. Darvish has been lethal to that side of the plate with a .237 wOBA, .537 OPS, 0.36 HR/9 and a 43.3% K rate. There’s a little more danger than I prefer for this price since the Sox are 12th in ISO. However, there’s no reason to shy away from Darvish in cash and maybe not even GPP.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 1st

The pitch data isn’t kind to Lamet in this spot but it hasn’t held him back in this matchup. He whiffed seven in the first time he saw the Giants and is absolutely rolling with 32 strikeouts in the past three games. He’s scored at least 29 DK in all three games and this game is a double header, so the complete game bonus isn’t out of reach for Lamet. The overall K rate is through the roof at 35.2% and the hard hit rate is under 40%.

What really works for Lamet is the splits. His K rate is only 2% less to the left side but the rest of the stats are better to that side. LHH only have a .199 wOBA, .426 OPS and a .132 average. There’s five lefties projected for the Giants lineup. With a swinging strike rate of 14.4%, Lamet is an elite arm under $10,000.

Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco, though I prefer him in GPP myself

GPP Options

Jose Urquidy

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 14th SL – 30th CB – 28th

If you decide to take the high/low approach in cash, Urquidy is your man. He’s got some oddball stats in 22.2 IP with just a 13.8% K rate after being above 20% at every level. I’m going to side with the track record here and the 30 DK points Urquidy scored against this Rangers lineup in he last matchup. The swinging strike rate is still a 10% compared with 12% through 41 IP in 2019. There’s not a giant reason the K rate should be so low and might just be some bad variance right now.

His hard rate is under 30% so even when hitters make contact, it’s not doing a ton of damage. The small concerns are the FIP is 4.33 and xFIP is 5.73 compared to the 2.78 ERA, but I believe Urquidy is more talented than he’s shown.

Brad Keller

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 28th

Keller is a pretty uninspiring choice on most night and on his own merits. The K rate is just 15.5% with an 8.8% walk rate, which is a ratio we don’t normally target. Even the swinging strike rate doesn’t offer a lot of hope at 8.8% but he gets the #FlowChart matchup with the Tigers.

They’ve led the league in K rate to RHP at 28% basically from wire to wire this season and Keller does have some ceiling. Of his eight starts, he’s scored over 17 DK points. The reason he’s in GPP is because the other three starts have totaled 9.1 DK points. There’s tangible upside but this start can go sideways in a hurry.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (not sure many will play him and he just posted 27 DK points in Coors Field)

Monkey Knife Fight

It’s not the best night to catch pitchers in the same game, so we’re just going to try and hit the best two arms on the slate. Take note that the numbers are higher, so the double up is the safest play on the board. Use you bankroll wisely if you go above he 16.5 mark. Remember go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23

It was quite the day on the mound for the Win Daily Family. The Rotation’s selections that were written up all surpassed 20 DK points and Brian unearthed a gem with Steven Brault for the Buccos. Even Monkey Knife Fight hit for the double up amount, so it was an elite evening. Let’s go ahead and try to replicate it tonight on a LOADED (and I mean LOADED) pitching slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23 and keep the Discord chat rolling!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 3rd CB – 1st CT – 24th SL – 20th

My goodness do we have some arms available tonight. Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Lucas Giolito, Zack Greinke, Tyler Glasnow, Max Fried, Kenta Maeda….that’s what I’m talking about! Anyways, some folks might get scared off by the White Sox matchup but we have the likely AL Cy Young for barely $10,000 against a team that whiffs 25.7%, fifth-most. Sure, the lineup is dangerous otherwise but this is Bieber. He has a 40.6% K rate and a 0.86 WHIP. There’s not a team that I wouldn’t feel entirely comfortable with playing Bieber and his 17.4% swinging strike rate at this price point.

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CT – 29th SL – 9th CB – 15th

If you’d rather leave Bieber to GPP plays and just go with the matchups that we’ve picked on the entire year, Bauer is where you start. All the pitching is really priced soft tonight, with Bauer under $10,000. His last two starts against the Brewers produced a mediocre 16 DK and a massive 36 DK. Given the Brewers are the second-highest K rate team to RHP, I’m betting the low score was the anomaly. Bauer still sits above 35% in K rate himself to go with a 12.5% swinging strike rate.

Even when hitters are making contact, they’re not hitting the ball hard. Bauer is sporting a 26.1% hard hit rate to offset his 46.8% fly ball rate and is holding the HR/9 to 1.25. Maybe that’s a touch higher than we like, but the K potential outweighs any negatives. It’s not like Milwaukee’s 18th ranked ISO or 24th ranked OPS is that scary, either.

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 29th CH – 23rd FB – 8th

Maeda continues the #FlowChart pitchers on the evening. He’s a bit of an odd bird, since his most used pitches are his slider and change as opposed to his fastball. Still, he should have little resistance with this Tigers offense. They lead the league in K rate to RHP and he’s faced them twice this year. Both times he’s stuck out eight hitters, though he has given up three runs each time as well. I’m willing to overlook that given the Tigers track record this season. Maeda has a career high in K rate at 31.6% and a career-best walk rate at 4.4%. He’s also flirting with a 50% ground ball rate and the hard hit rat is 21.5%. There’s no reason to not trust him in this spot.

Honorable Mention – Giolito, Greinke, Fried, Gallen

GPP Options

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 4th CB – 16th

Typically, if we get Glasnow under $9,500 he’s in play for cash and I suppose you could say that tonight. However, with the plethora of options and the relatively difficult matchup it’s best to not play him for cash. The Mets don’t whiff as a team very much at just 21.9% and they are a patient bunch with an 8.4% walk rate. They still have the best average against RHP and that could be a small issue. Glasnow does have a 1.19 WHIP and a 9.7% walk rate, so he could get nickeled and dimed here with base hits and walks.

He should be able to make up for those issues with the 38.4% K rate and the 14% swinging strike rate, but it’s best to not take that chance. What really shapes up well for Glasnow is his .249 wOBA to LHH, along with an average under .200 and a K rate over 40%. This could be a spot where the strikeouts hit double digits and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 19th SL – 8th

I will be transparent – I’m not planning on having too much exposure to Sixto for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23. It’s not that he can’t be an absolute stud in this spot. Just look to three starts ago when he went for 26 DK against this Braves offense, striking out six. It’s more to do with the incredibly soft pricing up top. I don’t feel the need to take the small risk Sanchez is for the price with the options at my disposal.

Looking at Sanchez himself, the strikeouts haven’t been over six in any start but one. That simply won’t cut it tonight, based on what’s in front of us. The swinging strike rate is 13.1% but the K rate is just 22% right now. This isn’t to disparage Sanchez, who has been excellent since his promotion. He’s just going to get lost on this slate and you don’t have to be this different. However, if he goes nuts and he’s not popular, that’s a big leg up.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Hendricks

Monkey Knife Fight

This one is a pretty easy choice. The premier pitching duel of the night should be Lucas Giolito against Shane Bieber. Both pitchers have 10 strikeouts or more in the range of outcomes tonight. Bet whatever you’re comfortable with, it’s a rare time when 20 is in play to a pretty big extent.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.22

It was overall a pretty solid night, as every single pitcher showed up to some extent and pitched well. I hope you enjoyed some of the top end arms on Monday’s slate because Tuesday does not feature any. It’s a rare slate where there’s no pitcher over $10,000. The options are not the best on paper tonight but we’re going to sort through and find out who we need in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.22.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Framber Valdez

Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 25th CH – 26th

I suspect that Valdez will be very chalky, which is pretty uncomfortable to be honest. Still, the pitch data lines up perfectly and the K rate for the Mariners to LHP is great for Valdez as well since it’s the third-highest, 27%. The lefty for the Astros has whiffed 26.1% of the hitters he’s faced and featured a 10.2% swinging strike rate, which is enough. When he’s not missing bats, he’s generating a 59.9% ground ball rate which is the third-highest among starters. Valdez has cut the HR/9 to 0.71 and even with a .315 BABIP, the FIP and xFIP are both below 3.05. Everything lines up for Valdez.

Randy Dobnak

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 29th CH – 23rd

I hate the price, but Dobnak is the #FlowChart pick tonight as a RHP against the Tigers. We know how weak the Detroit offense is against RHP and they are the league leader in K rate to that side of the mound. The big problem is the 13.5% K rate from Dobnak, which is just terrible for a starter that is approaching $9,000. On many slates, I would skip right on by. However, Dobnak is holding the HR/9 to just 0.58 in major part because he leads the league in ground ball rate at over 62%. The Tigers are average in that metric but you’re hoping Dobnak keeps the runs low and gets a couple extra K’s in the process.

GPP Options

Blake Snell

Pitch Data – FB – 4th CH – 1st CB – 15th SL – 11th

Snell has been fine this year but not his normal dominant self to some extent. The K rate is still great at 30% but the HR/9 has been sky high with a 1.62 mark. One of his biggest issues is that he’s not even averaging five innings per start. He’s yet to make it a six full innings yet and only has two starts above 95 pitches. That’s not really ideal for a pitcher at this price.

The matchup doesn’t do him a lot of favors either. The pitch data looks rough for his two most used pitches and the Mets just don’t strike out. They are under a 21% rate for the season and almost at a 10% walk rate. Considering the circumstances, Snell has some ceiling but some serious limitations on paper.

Seth Lugo

Pitch Data – FB – 27th CB – 1st SL – 3rd

I know, the last time we used Lugo he got ethered off the planet for nearly a -8 on DK. He has some upside with this price as three of his previous starts went for over 16 DK. Tampa has the fifth-highest K rate to RHP and it’s all the way over 25%. For Lugo, his K rate is 31.5% and the walks are fairly low, under 6%. His xFIP is 2.52 which clashes with his 4.34 ERA and could mean he’s been a little unlucky. The fear is Lugo is a little worse to LHH. His HR/9 is over 2.50 to that side and the Rays are 13th in ISO. I wouldn’t lean on him for cash but he’s well worth a shot in GPP.

Honorable Mention – Brady Singer, Keegan Akin

Monkey Knife Fight

This is not my favorite slate to chase strikeouts in the same game, but I’m staying with the Mets game. It’s best to just bet the double up here since both pitchers have their flaws, but the strikeouts should come even with some runs. After yesterday hit for 5x if you went that far, we can afford to be a bit careful here.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.21

We’re closing in fast on the end of the MLB season but that doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made! We only have eight games on the slate for tonight and the pitching options aren’t the most inspiring. Still, we press on and MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.21 is here to narrow down that player pool for pitching!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 3rd CH – 8th

I know, I know. The last time we played deGrom, he went for negative points and left the game early with an injury. There’s no reason the Mets would let him pitch unless he was in full health, so that doesn’t concern me here. He’s still the best pitcher in the game on most nights (maybe Shane Bieber has an argument) and he’s under $11,000.

The swinging strike rate is still over 21%, which is astronomical. He strikes out LHH a little less but it’s still over 32% and the wOBA is only .227. Tampa is quietly a top-four strikeout rate team at 25.4% this season. deGrom has all his normal upside and we shouldn’t worry about injury. Lock him in, especially with some questionable options below his salary.

Marco Gonzales

Pitch Data – FB – 20th CT – 19th CB – 18th CH – 25th

There’s a lot of times that I just see a lefty on the mound against the Astros and keep scrolling. However, I noticed Sunday that while they still have a couple lefty mashers, the team overall is just average against southpaws. They are no better than 16th in average, OBP, OPS or wOBA. The only team category they’re top 10 in is ISO and that’s being carried by a handful of players.

Gonzales is quietly putting together a great season. His 23.7% K rate is the best of his career and the walk rate of 2.2% is also a career mark. The WHIP is under 1.00 for the first time in his career and he’s faced some good lineups against lefty pitching. He’s owned the Angels this year, gotten through the Dodgers and the Padres and A’s. I would normally go just GPP, but am really fine pairing him with deGrom in cash.

Honorable Mention – Adam Wainwright

GPP Options

Luis Castillo

Pitch Data – FB – 21st CH – 22nd SL – 11th

If you decide to just go expensive at SP and pair Castillo with deGrom in cash, I certainly won’t stop you. If we get enough value bats, I may do it myself. Castillo is firmly in play with drawing a Brewers matchup that has been a strikeout haven this year. The swinging strike rate has stayed stagnant this year at 15.6% but the K rate has gone up over 30% for the first time for Castillo. The Brewers are still striking out 26.8% of the time to RHP.

The first time Castillo tangled with this team he went for over 24 DK points and he’s running hot right now. The past three starts have totaled 22 IP, three ER, 6 walks and 24 strikeouts. He’s faced the Pirates twice and the Reds, but it’s not like the Brewers are a tough matchup on paper. They remain bottom five in every offensive category we value except ISO. Milwaukee has crawled up to 18th in that one.

German Marquez

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 20th SL – 2nd

I have thoughts of Marquez in cash, but maybe it’s best to leave him in GPP. The SP2 slot for cash tonight is difficult if not spending up to Castillo so Marquez is in the running. He’s seen the Giants once this year and put up 30 DK, and that came in Coors Field. He doesn’t have to worry about that tonight since they are in San Francisco.

Marquez has seen the K rate come down to under 22% but his salary isn’t that big of an ask right now. I’m not thrilled with the walks coming up to 7.9% but the swinging strike rate is almost exactly in line with last year. The ERA is over 4.00 but the FIP and xFIP are both under 4.00. He’s even handling lefties better with just a .311 wOBA and two homers, which are both lower on the road. His road ERA is 2.64 so he should be in play tonight.

Honorable Mention – Lance McCullers, Brandon Woodruff, Johnny Cueto

Monkey Knife Fight

I think the best chance we have to rack up the strikeouts tonight is the Castillo/Woodruff combo. We talked about Castillo’s upside and Woodruff brings a hefty 29.5% K rate to the table himself. The Reds are a top 10 K rate team to RHP and Woodruff has eight strikeouts across 10 innings against the Reds this year.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!