For the first time since Opening Day, we have some decent options on this slate. Last night’s main slate featured a slobber-knocker of a pitcher’s duel between Corbin Burnes and Jose Berrios. I’m not sure we get to that level again but we have plenty of options nonetheless. It’s also kind of nice to not have to deal with Coors Field chalk for the first time all season so let’s toe the rubber for the Starting Rotation 4.4 to find the green screens!
Ian Anderson ($9,800 DK/$9,000 FD)
FB – 48.7% (7th) CH – 30.5% (4th) CB – 20.8% (8th)
I believe Anderson winds up chalky, but if I’m wrong we could bump him into the GPP section. This spot isn’t the absolute best for him but I still do like it. We only have a very small sample of Anderson in the majors, a total of 32.1 innings. The K rate is excellent at 29.7% but the walk rate is high at 10.1%. That could bite him as the Phillies were top 10 in walk rate last year against RHP. Anderson was excellent as well when it came to fly balls with just a 27.5% rate and a 25.9% hard contact rate to boot.
There is some regression coming due to his 3.45 xFIP compared to the 1.95 ERA. Perhaps my largest fear is the pitch data which does not look kindly to Anderson. Philly was top 10 against all three of his main offerings and that could be a problem. His main two pitches were the four-seam and the change as he threw them over 700 times last year. They both had an ISO of .060 or under and the change only got hit for a .071 average. Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius were the only Philly hitters that really hit the changeup well last year so I’m fine using Anderson in cash if he’s projected as popular. I also don’t want to take under 40 IP in the majors as “this is what Anderson will always be”.
Brady Singer ($8,700 DK/$7,500 FD)
FB – 57.9% (23rd) SL – 37.4% (30th) CH was used under 5%
The field may well turn to Aaron Civale in Detroit and I’m not exactly going to argue that. What I will argue is that I actually prefer Singer. What we have in Singer is the 18th overall pick in the 2018 draft and made his debut last year with 64.1 innings pitched. The results were fairly strong as a rookie, with a 4.06 ERA and a 4.05 xFIP. The K rate was over 23% and the walk rate was a touch high at 8.7%. So why do we like him here? There are a couple of factors that have me interested.
First, the pitch data really favors Singer since Texas was in the bottom 10 last season against both pitches. There’s also the matter of his ground ball rate being 53.1% and the hard-hit rate being 24.9%. His fastball is a sinker so that’s always going to generate a high clip of grounders. Singer also really started to figure some things out towards the end of the year in 2020. He racked up a 3-1 record with a 1.50 ERA, a .114 batting average against, 25 strikeouts, nine hits, and eight walks in his last four starts (24 innings). I’m not always a fan of a two-pitch pitcher without overwhelming stuff but we have more good news.
Singer has worked on his changeup and changed his grip on it, as reported in kansascity.com. That is a huge piece of Singer’s development so opposing teams can’t sit on the sinker. He only threw it 50 times last season but it sported a .083 ISO. If he can use it with any regularity, this could turn into a major weapon. Lastly, we can add in the Rangers lineup getting considerably worse from 2020 where they had a 25.3% K rate to RHP. If Singer isn’t popular enough in cash, I’m very in for GPP.
Honorable Mention – Civale, Zach Davies is dependent on the Wrigley wind and Pirates lineup since Ke’Bryan Hayes could sit with a wrist injury
Michael Pineda ($9,200 DK/$7,300 FD)
FB – 50.1% (24th) SL – 38.5% (18th) CH – 11.4% (24th)
Pineda is a cagey veteran who is capable of pretty strong fantasy outings but is also capable of ruining your lineup. When talking about him, it’s best to combine his last two seasons since it spans just over 170 innings. The K rate is between 22.5% and 23.3% with an HR/9 just under 1.40. Pineda really limited hard contact in his minimal action last year with a 23.1% rate and the .321 BABIP against seems abnormally high. Throughout his career, Pineda has been even as far as splits go so I don’t think there’s a strong platoon advantage for the Brewers lineup.
It’s important to keep in mind that the Brew Crew was only 1% from leading the majors in K rate to RHP last season. I’m not sure there’s much reason to think the lineup got significantly better either. His slider was has been his main strikeout pitch and only Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura rate well against that pitch. If he can survive those hitters, Pineda could throw up a big fantasy number.
Tarik Skubal ($7,300 DK/$6,000 FD)
FB – 60.1% (27th) CH – 16.4% (15th) SL – 15.7% (23rd)
We’re talking about another 2020 rookie as Skubal broke camp in the Tigers rotation. The lefty doesn’t exactly have a lot on the surface the would make you want to play him today. His ERA over 32 innings was 5.63 and the 5.75 FIP would back that up. He displayed a terrifying fly ball rate of 54.2% which helps explain his 2.53 HR/9. Righties did all of the damage with eight bombs and a 24.3% HR/FB rate. An encouraging sign with the homers is it was never an issue through the minors. Not much that I’ve described sounds fun until you realize Skubal had a K rate of 27.6%.
Skubal lived and died by the four-seam last year as his secondary pitches just didn’t work for him. It’s not that surprising to see a rookie struggle with his secondary pitches. His four-seam sits in the high 90’s and can be a serious weapon but there has to be something else going with it, otherwise, MLB hitters will catch up to any cheddar being thrown. Skubal worked on a split-change during the spring and whiffed 18 hitters over 17 innings of work. Granted it’s just the spring but he only allowed three runs as well. Cleveland didn’t whiff a ton against LHP last year at just 20.5% but their lineup has looked putrid so far. I always am willing to take shots with young pitchers with some gas and Skubal checks that box for me.
Honorable Mention – Not a ton today. I wish I could say Mitch Keller but even I’m not too excited about that.
Gas Can To Target – In the past three years, Jeff Hoffman has pitched about 100 innings and his ERA has not below 6.56 and the HR/9 has hovered between 2.70 and 1.27. He’s given up hard contact over 40% of the time the past two seasons while mostly relying on a fastball and changeup. Both sides of the plate got him last year but in his career, RHH have a .411 wOBA, .313 average, and a 2.31 HR/9. I’m looking right through the heart of the Cards lineup here. Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neil both had ISO’s over .200 against righties last year while Paul Goldschmidt was over .375 in wOBA along with being their best fastball hitter (17th overall in MLB last season). Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman are all secondary options in the stack as well.
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Bruce Zimmerman O 3.5 K’s -107
Record – 1-2
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My goodness was it fun to have baseball back yesterday! Between the articles, bets, and calls in the Discord, we had a very solid first day of action. I will remind you guys to not get too crazy with the bankroll. MLB is a grind and is tough as far as the variance. Play within the means, be smart with it, and we’re going to grow that bankroll, continuing with the Starting Rotation 4.2!
Note – The numbers under the pitcher represent how often he threw a pitch. The number in the parentheses is how the opposition ranked against said pitch type in 2020 until 2021 data stabilizes.
Blake Snell ($9,700 DK/$9,500 FD)
FB – 50.6% (29th) CH – 19.8% (29th) SL – 15% (4th) CB – 14.6% (7th)
Well, it took all of one day for the starting pitching to look like it got hit with an ugly stick. Yesterday it felt like we had options. Today is different for sure. Snell lands atop the board here but I think the field will take one of two paths. The first is to just lock in Snell. The only other ace-style pitcher on the slate is Trevor Bauer, but he’s in Coors Field. The second path could be to just pay down and get the bats they want. I lean most take the best pitcher they feel comfortable with, hence Snell.
That’s not to say there aren’t concerns here. For one, Arizona carried the seventh-best K rate against LHP last season at just 21%. The pitch data is either good for Snell or quite bad for Snell, pending which pitch he’s using. The pitch mix is not guaranteed to be the same since he’s with a new team. All in all, Snell is likely the “safest” option on the board. Even if the strikeouts aren’t flowing, The D-Backs struggled in other ways against the southpaws last season. They were no higher than 25th in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ through last season. The only real addition to the lineup is veteran Asdrubal Cabrera so Snell stands to likely be popular on both sites.
Pablo Lopez ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD)
FB – 55.1% (26th) CH – 29.8% (3rd) CT and CB were under 9% of the time
I’m going to come clean right now and flat out say I have a very pro Pablo Lopez bias. I think he’s extremely talented and it’s only a matter of time before he really puts it together. He’s still barely 25 years old and this is an interesting spot for him. For one, he’s always been better at home with a career 3.28 ERA compared to 6.11 on the road. I do have some concerns about the Rays lefties in this matchup because Lopez gave up a .310 wOBA and a 14.7% K rate to that side of the plate.
However, the righties whiffed 36% of the time against Lopez. The projected Rays lineup A. loses the DH and B. has four lefties in it. The Marlins righty is dependent on the four-seam and change, having at least a 15% whiff rate on those two pitches. His fastball used to be a weakness but has steadily improved over the past three seasons to the point it was his highest-valued pitch last year. Lopez is cheap and has potential here even with some potentially scary LHH like Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe in the batter’s box. We would back off this pick if the Rays really overloaded on LHH.
Honorable Mention – Possibly Ryan Yarbrough, I’d want to see how popular he’s projected to be
Jesus Luzardo ($7,900 DK/$7,200 FD)
FB – 53.3% (21st) SL – 22.4% (9th) CH – 23.9% (25th)
This is a slate to take some risks so let’s get nuts. Luzardo is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate for just pure stuff and filthiness. He flew through the minors and did scuffle a little bit in his first “full” season last year with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.37 HR/9. There are some encouraging signs underneath for Luzardo. His fly-ball rate was just 30.7% and the hard-hit rate was 32% so there’s nothing totally egregious there. Luzardo also still struck out a hitter per inning, which is nothing to sneer at.
Here’s what gives me some strong encouragement. Firstly, Luzardo was excellent at home last year. That’s not a huge shock as Oakland checked in at 31st in runs and home runs last year in park factor. Luzardo also struck out lefties over 25% of the time and the Astros are suddenly a little bit lefty-heavy. Sure, they still have Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa. The loss of George Springer is a big deal for the Houston lineup and Luzardo likely has three lefties to face in the heart of the order. This spot is certainly dangerous, but there’s a wider range of outcomes and one includes a strong start from the A’s youngster. The pitch data is encouraging for Luzardo and on this slate, he’s worth some exposure.
Yusei Kikuchi ($6,000 DK/$7,500 FD)
CT – 39.9% (26th) FB – 37.7% (8th) SL – 16.1% (2nd) SF thrown 6.3%
When we’re talking about safe options for tonight, we’re really not going to find them on this slate as far as there not being nit-picks. I feel like Coors Field (especially the Dodgers bats) will be the focus of salary spent. There’s not a ton of great options at pitcher so the field will try to win with the hitters and not blow up with their pitchers. Kikuchi is carrying some momentum from spring training where his fastball had some serious life to it and hit up to 97 MPH. With the Giants ranking 26th against his primary pitch last year, I am interested.
Now, we have to talk about the drawbacks here. The Giants were quietly elite against the lefties last season. They finished top-four in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ last year against southpaws. That is hard to get by in this spot but if Kikuchi is figuring out how to pitch in the majors, we want to be ahead of the curve. The fact he’s the cheapest starter on DK does help his case, but do not think there isn’t significant risk in playing Kikuchi. He could check in chalky just because of the price and if that’s the case, he’d be my SP2 for cash games. I would just prefer to go GPP-only here.
Honorable Mention – Johnny Cueto, (FD only)
Note – So we haven’t talked about Trevor Bauer much unless it’s been in passing. It’s easy to say “He’s in Coors” and be done with it but that’s not good enough. Does he have upside, even in a tough environment? Of course, he does. The man is the reigning and defending NL Cy Young. However, there are some frightening metrics overall for Bauer. His strand rate was 90.9% last season. That’s just not happening again. His ERA was 1.73 and the xFIP was 3.25 which means he’s due some home run regression as well.
That would be backed up by the massive 47.8% fly-ball rate that Bauer displayed last year. There are not many worse parks to have a monster fly ball rate. It led the league last year and for some context, Gerrit Cole was second at 43.1%. Cole had an 18.7% FB/HR rate while Bauer was 12%. Colorado also only whiffed 22% of the time at home against RHP last year, 21st in the league. The lefties had the advantage on Bauer with a .258 wOBA and a 1.89 HR/9 last year. There are some serious red flags here and I would rather play some Rockies LHH ahead of Bauer.
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Friday Free Bet
Orioles O 3.5 Runs
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s getting warmer in most parts of the country and that can only mean one thing – Major League Baseball is BACK!! After a challenging season on the diamond last year, MLB is intending to run a complete 162 game schedule and we’re going to be here with a pitching breakdown through it! The goal is to identify the pitchers we want in both Cash and GPP formats using metrics to tell us who we should target so let’s dig into Starting Rotation Opening Day!
Note – The numbers under the pitcher represent how often he threw a pitch. The number in the parentheses is how the opposition ranked against said pitch type in 2020 until 2021 data stabilizes.
Yu Darvish ($10,400 DK/$10,700 FD)
FB – 24.8% (29th) CT – 40.2% (12th) SL – 14.6% (4th) CB – 12.4% (7th)
It’s a bit weird to begin Starting Rotation Opening Day with a pitcher I’m not super excited about. I will not likely land on Darvish, but I believe he might be popular on DK especially. I do think there are reasons to not spend up. Brian outlined this in his fantastic Picks and Pivots article but Darvish was well above career averages last season. He set career highs in left on-base percentage, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and HR/9. Furthermore, Arizona sported the third-lowest K rate against righty pitching last year. If Darvish sticks with his cutter-heavy approach, that could pose an issue against Arizona as well. They were 12th against that pitch last season as a team. When you’re paying this price, you need strikeouts and a lot of them. If Darvish is projecting to be chalky, perhaps we eat it. If not, I’d be happy to go elsewhere.
Luis Castillo ($9,200 DK/$8,900 FD)
FB – 52.3% (19th) CH – 30% (30th) SL – 17.7% (12th)
Over on FD, Castillo feels like a bargain since he’s under $9,000. St. Louis finished with a top 12 strikeout rate against righties last season, making Castillo appealing right off the bat. The changeup data is very intriguing as well. According to BrooksBaseball, the changeup was a big weapon for Castillo. He recorded 54 of his 96 strikeouts last year with the change, generating a swing 61% of the time. With the Cardinals finishing dead last against the pitch last year, that’s a great start for Castillo’s potential success. They were also 22nd or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. There’s no getting around this offense wasn’t that great last season.
Now, there’s also no getting around the Cards are a different offense this year. You can’t add Nolan Arenado and not be better offensively. Past that addition, the Cards lineup looks strikingly similar to the 2020 season. It also has to be noted that Arenado finished with a negative FanGraphs rating against the change last year. Castillo looks rock solid by any metric we can trot out.
Tyler Glasnow ($8,800 DK/$10,000 FD)
FB – 60.6% (20th) CB – 35% (10th)
I’m not sure I can properly state my Glasnow love. He’s my dark horse to win the AL Cy Young this season. He just needs to stay healthy, I believe he is that talented. Perhaps the biggest criticism of Glasnow out there is he’s a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball and curve. It’s a fair critique since he threw those two pitches over 95% of the time last year. Well, that’s not the case this season. Take a look from MLB.com –
“I know he’s pretty excited about it, and he should be because he feels like he can land that pitch [for strikes] fairly consistently,” Cash said before the game. “With Glas, it’s a lot of fastballs at the top of the zone [and] featuring that snap curveball right off that fastball. … A slider has a little bit more shape, a little bit more tilt to it, and something that he can harness in the zone a little bit better.”
Last season saw Glasnow give up too many runs which can be easy to do with a 1.73 HR/9. However, his K rate spiked to over 38% and his xFIP was 2.75 compared to his 4.08 ERA. His walk rate was a bit high at 9.2% but that was still the second-best mark of his career. Adding a pitch should help keep the ball in the park. Opposing teams teed off on his fastball, hitting a home run 15 times off that pitch. With a new offering, that can quell some of the bombs. With Miami holding a top 10 K rate against RHP last season, I’m in love with Glasnow for this slate. The fish also finished dead last in ISO against righties with the 26th wOBA. Glasnow can offer the upside of any pitcher on the DK side for far less salary.
Kyle Hendricks ($7,700 DK)
FB – 54.5% (30th) CH – 28.9% (22nd) CB – 16.6% (28th)
I have no interest in Hendricks on FD as I’d rather play Castillo if nothing else. DK is a different story since the field will want to fit at least one or two Coors Field bats in their lineup. Many will likely turn to Hendricks, hoping he can pick on the Pirates lineup. It can best be described as “nine players that will try to hit the baseball” because it’s not good at all.
The best hitters would be Bryan Reynolds and possibly Ke’Bryan Hayes, but there are questions about the latter’s qualities as a hitter. The Pirates finished eighth last year in K rate to RHP and were 30th in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Even with some positive movement, they are still going to be a bad offense. Hendricks doesn’t possess the qualities we typically look for with just a 20.3% K rate but teams make hard contact just 26.4% of the time. He’s not going to be a slate-breaker but a solid outing is all you need.
Honorable Mention – Kenta Maeda (Brian goes deeper in Picks and Pivots, we’ll need to see if he’s chalky)
Note – On FD, I would have a strong inclination to play Shane Bieber in cash. He gets the Tigers, who led the league in K rate to RHP last season. I can’t possibly see him whiffing 41.1% of the hitters faced or stranding 91% of base runners again but even with regression this is still a nuts matchup.
Jack Flaherty ($8,600 DK/$8,600 FD)
FB – 55.8% (11th) SL – 28.7% (26th) CB – 13.6% (29th)
Flaherty had a pretty strange 2020 season. For one, he barely pitched over 40 innings. When we talk about 202 stats, they all need a large grain of salt because the season was so short and different from the norm. In Flaherty’s case, the K rate was in line at 28.8%, his fly ball rate went down to 25.7% and his xFIP was 3.42 compared to a 4.91 ERA. One of the biggest aspects that hurt Flaherty was a strand rate of just 68.8%. In the previous season, he sported an 83.3% strand rate and that is a huge gap.
The Reds lineup can be dangerous as they were sixth in ISO BUT they also were 28th in average and sixth in K rate to righties. The weather is supposed to be quite chilly for Opening Day and that almost always favors the pitcher. The NL lost the designated hitter this year as well, so pitchers will have a slight advantage in that league. Lastly, Flaherty had a 9.45 ERA on the road which drove some of his struggles. I’m not taking a 13.1 and 40.1 inning sample size as an indication of what he can do on the mound.
Brandon Woodruff ($8,000 DK/$8,700 FD)
FB – 65.1% (17th) CH – 17.6% (9th) SL – 10.7% (16th)
When a pitcher goes against names like Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Josh Donaldson, that’s not always who we’re chasing. This could quietly be a pretty good spot for Woodruff though. The Twins sported the seventh-highest K rate to RHP at 25.5%. They also finished 22nd in OBP. With a fastball-heavy approach, Woodruff could find success in this spot. It doesn’t hurt him that the Twins will lose their DH in this game either. The flip side of this matchup is Minnesota was top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO last season. Woodruff was tougher on RHH with a 33% K rate and a 0.96 HR/9 in 2020. With the main power hitters for the Twins being righty hitters, Woodruff could be low-rostered with a big ceiling.
Note – On FD, Gerrit Cole is in play in any format. I tend to prefer him in GPP because I’d just play Bieber in cash. However, Cole draws a good matchup based on the handedness of the Blue Jays lineup. Toronto is projected to have seven of nine hitters on the right side of the plate and Cole dominated righty hitters last season. He only allowed a .201 batting average and a .250 wOBA to that side of the plate. The other wild card is who’s catching Cole. The Yankees have stated that Gary Sanchez will catch Cole to start the season. That didn’t go super well last season through 46 innings. Cole sat at a 3.91 ERA, .776 OPS, and 12 of 14 homers came with Sanchez as his catcher. That doesn’t mean there’s not a ceiling to be had but Bieber is the safer play.
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Thursday Free Bet
Padres O 4.5 runs, -132 on DK SportsBook
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation Opening Day and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We’re back with another four game slate and this one is going to be some rough sledding. Every team is down to their third or fourth starter and it’s desperation time. Today’s slate is as much as dodging the landmines as anything else. Managers may be quick to the bullpen at this point to try and end the series for a couple days off. We’re going to sort through all eight options just like yesterday, but understand that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8 is a very tough task from many angles.
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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!
*Note – Pitchers are listed by preference
Pros – When you’re leading off with a pitch going up against the Braves, that should tell you where we’re at for the pitching slate. The kid has electric stuff and he showed it in the playoffs already –
Now, the stuff hasn’t exactly translated in the exact way we would like. The K rate was just 20.9% which could potentially be chalked up to learning on the job in the majors. The swinging strike rate is awesome at 12.8% and that’s what still gives me some hope that the K rate will come up to a higher level. Much like Pablo Lopez, Sixto had some good and bad against the Braves this year. One start was great with 26 DK and featured six strikeouts. Atlanta was also 15th and 19th against the slider and change, which made up 46% of the pitches for Sanchez this year. Lastly, the 0.69 HR/9 should really help if it’s the true measure of his talent.
Cons – The Braves are a very dangerous offense and the results from the Cubs start are skewed. Sanchez was excellent through three innings and really dodged big time damage in the fourth and fifth. Atlanta did light him up in the last time for four runs over three innings. If the 58% ground ball rate and the stuff doesn’t show up, Sanchez is going to get waxed (which is a fear for every pitcher on the slate).
Pros – We’re going downhill fast with options. Javier almost has to start this one be default. Zack Greinke has some type of arm injury, and the other four main starters have been spent. That’s going to leave Javier who threw an inning of relief in Game 1 with 25 pitches. The Astros likely treat that as a side session and hope he can go five, maybe six innings if things go well. Javier had a much higher K rate than Sanchez at 25.2% across 54.1 IP. The hard hit rate was under 29% and he was nasty to RHH. Through 89 righties faced, Javier allowed a .101 average, .208 wOBA and had a 30.3% K rate.
Cons – The fly ball rate is positively terrifying at 52.2% and the HR/9 was 1.82. It’s a really poor match considering the A’s have the highest fly ball rate to righties in the league and were one of three teams that were over 40%. The ISO was 13th as a team and there is power up and down the lineup. The FIP and the xFIP was nearly a run and a half higher than his ERA on top of everything else.
Pros – I think if we’re just talking raw talent, Montas might be the best pitcher on the slate. After getting suspended for PED’s last year, he really never got this season going with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.70 HR/9. He does bring a hefty K rate to the table at 25.3% and his FIP and xFIP were both under 4.75, pointing to some poor luck. A strand rate of 68.7% didn’t do him any favors. Montas generated an 11.7% swinging strike rate, in line with 2019. You can build the case that this could be a redemption start with the Astros being righty heavy. He has three starts against them this year, totaling 15.1 IP, 7 ER, two homers and 14 K’s.
Cons – I mean, it’s tough to look past how poorly he pitched this year. Houston was the hardest offense to strikeout this season and the only team to finish under 20% for their K rate to RHP. He does face a righty heavy lineup and he had a .252 wOBA to that side but still faced a 1.19 HR/9. If he was cheaper, I could build a stronger case. The only thing potentially saving him is the Astros lineup construction, and even then it’s scary. He wouldn’t be this high if we had a normal slate. Even with the negatives, he’s interesting for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8.
Pros – The only good factor for Montgomery is the league-leading K rate for the Rays to lefty pitching. Through 44 IP, he did have a 24.4% K rate and a 12.9% swinging strike rate. The leash isn’t going to be long with the Yankees facing elimination. However, the 5.11 ERA doesn’t jive with the FIP and xFIP under 3.70 each. The hope here is some strikeouts before he gets yanked or gets buried.
Cons – Montgomery has gotten tagged by righties with a .338 wOBA and a 1.91 HR/9. Tampa was fourth in ISO, sixth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+. There’s strikeouts to be had, but this matchup is difficult and Montgomery isn’t that good.
Pros – The Rays will utilize an opener, so Yarbrough doesn’t have to face the top of the order right out of the chute. What’s interesting is the Yankees ranked 20th in OPS and wOBA, 15th in ISO and 18th in wRC+ against lefties this year. The K rate was average but we just assume they kill lefties when that wasn’t exactly the case in 2020. The career 0.99 HR/9 is awesome to take into this spot even if the 18.8% K rate isn’t. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates were under 29.5% and he was slightly better to RHH with a .299 wOBA. Being the cheapest pitcher we can use doesn’t hurt either since we’re going to want some bats.
Cons – If Yarbrough allows any runs, he lacks the K ability to make up for it so it’s likely down to just preventing runs period. He hasn’t pitched at all in the playoffs and only threw 35 pitches in his last appearance, so his stamina is a total guess. Despite some mediocre numbers over the season, New York can be lethal to lefties and it could go terribly for Yarbrough. Tampa would likely be hyper aggressive to try and not go to Game 5.
Pros – Well, there’s not a ton here. Wright has potential but he’s yet to really put it together in the bigs. There is some hope in his last three starts of the regular season. He went six innings or more in all three, didn’t allow more than three runs and had at least four strikeouts in all three. The lowest DK total was 13.5, which probably is perfectly acceptable today. He does have a fly ball rate under 33% so that helps slightly as well.
Cons – I will not be using Wright as I don’t see almost any path to success. The start prior to his three good ones came against these Marlins and he was under two DK points and he gave up five runs. I’m fully on board with Marlins hitters, as Wright walked over 14% of the batters faced and Miami was 11th in BB%. He also got cracked by lefties. They had a .393 wOBA, .288 average, 1.96 HR/9 and the FIP to that side approached 7.00.
Pros – The Dodgers do have some options here and could go with Tony Gonsolin. Both pitchers are rested and I would have Gonsolin ranked as my fourth pitcher with the platoon advantage of not being a lefty pitcher. If it is Urias, he was solid this season with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.72 FIP. The K rate was still not there at just 20.1% and the walk rate was high-is at 8.3%. The swinging strike rate was just under 12% and he only had a 0.67 HR/9.
Gonsolin has the higher K rate at 26.1% and the lower walk rate at 4%, to go along with an ERA and FIP combo under 2.35. Even the xFIP is just 3.80, not a large cause for concern. His HR/9 was 0.39 and neither side of the plate had a wOBA over .235. I honestly hope it’s Gonsolin. He might even climb as high as second or third.
Cons – Urias had an xFIP over 5.00 and the fly ball rate was well over 40% which is rough. Since he’s the most expensive pitcher, he would have to be the highest-scoring to justify the spend and I’m not sure I see that. His K rate dipped even further to righties at just 18.5%.
He has a general lack of experience with under 87 IP and maybe the moment is too big for Gonsolin. The fly ball rate approaching 42% isn’t too fun but past that, the metrics look quite strong. Gonsolin would have to be strongly considered.
Pros – I have nothing here for him in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8.
Cons – It’s the Dodgers and Paddack has averaged under five innings per start this year.
We’re going with the Fantasy Points Challenge today instead of anything to do with pitching. I’ll gladly take two of the hottest hitters on the planet and the Rays likely start Mike Brosseau against a lefty. He had 42 at-bats and racked up an 1.121 OPS, .405 ISO and a .455 wOBA. If he doesn’t start, I’d replace him with Manuel Margot.
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Let’s get after it today my friends!
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Welcome back to one of the last editions of Starting Rotation on the season! We’ll be attempting to run this the rest of the divisional series at least since we have full slates until teams get eliminated. This is Game 3 for some teams and we’re going to change up the format a bit. Instead of cash and GPP picks, we’ll hit some quick notes on all eight pitchers. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7 will feature some pros and cons for each pitcher on the slate, so let’s dig into it!
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*Note – Pitchers are listed by preference
Pros – Miami has the second-highest K rate among teams left in the postseason field, which is a huge plus for Anderson. Only Gerrit Cole and Dinelson Lamet had a higher K rate than Anderson’s among teams left and Anderson dazzled in his first postseason start. He whiffed nine hitters over six scoreless innings on 99 pitches. Honestly, he should be the highest or second-highest rostered pitcher on the slate and I can’t see many reasons he shouldn’t be.
Cons – There’s not much here on the surface. Anderson was slightly worse on the road this year with a 2.55 ERA and .229 wOBA, but that’s nitpick-y at best. The HR/9 was only 0.28 over his 32.1 IP in the regular season, which is a huge help right now. He’s too cheap even with playoff pricing and solid chalk in my eyes.
Pros – The other half of the chalk on DK in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7 and I still feel cheated that Kershaw wasn’t given a shot at a complete game against the Brewers. The man was at 93 pitches, Dave Roberts. Relax. Anyways, this matchup isn’t easy because the Padres have some lefty mashers. In the first start Kershaw had against the Padres, he racked up nine strikeouts over 6.1 IP and gave up three earned. With a 12.7% swinging strike rate, he’s fairly hard to ignore.
Cons – The pitch data isn’t exactly the best, as San Diego was fifth against the fastball and first against the slider. The HR/9 for Kershaw was the second-highest of his career at 1.23 and his FIP and xFIP were about a full run higher than the 2.16 ERA. That’s about all I have, really. The Padres are dangerous and I still like Tatis, Machado or Myers as a one-off or mini stack even with Kershaw. We saw with Glasnow last night you can give up runs and still be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.
Pros – To say the bottom falls out in a hurry is an understatement here. I’m not super pumped to go after Lopez, but his track record this year against the Braves is notable. He’s made three starts and two have been great. He’s scored 24.3 and 25.3 in each game, racking up at least six strikeouts in each. The Braves do struggle against the changeup, which Lopez throws about 30% of the time. The 12.1% swinging strike rate isn’t that far away from Kershaw and his hard hit rate and fly ball rate are under 30%. The ceiling is tangible.
Cons – So I mentioned Lopez made three starts. The third resulted in -11.1 DK points and he gave up seven earned while not getting out of the second inning. Lopez was also demonstrably worse on the road, with a 4.91 ERA, .302 wOBA and 1.48 WHIP. To his credit, the HR/9 was still just 0.70. It’s a very risky play, especially after seeing Atlanta hang a crooked number last night.
Pros – The lefty at least has some strikeout potential with a 23.8% rate and a 12.6% swinging strike rate. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates were at 32% or lower with a HR/9 of 1.37. Houston took a serious step back against LHP this year, ranking 26th in OBP, 22nd in OPS, 17th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+. This matchup is significantly different than the White Sox spot Luzardo faced in his first start of the postseason.
Cons – With Oakland facing elimination, they will be hyper aggressive with the pitching. If Luzardo hits any kind of a rough patch, he’s going to get the hook. Additionally, Houston was the second-best team in K rate to lefties all year. The matchup is slightly better for Luzardo on paper, but the Astros are proving to be postseason tough right now. I very much prefer Anderson for $700 more.
Pros – If he can get it going, the Padres really need him to provide some length. Mike Clevinger left the game super early last night, so the pen has already been spent. He does have 13 innings against the Dodgers under his belt this year with five runs given up, but also 10 strikeouts. The K rate for Davies wasn’t special at just 22.8% but the hard hit rate was under 29%. He really controlled the left side with a .222 wOBA and only two bombs over 34.1 IP.
Cons – Righties were far more successful with a .317 wOBA and a 1.80 HR/9. Davies did whiff more to that side at 28.2% but it may not be enough. There’s not a lot of strikeout appeal and we all know what the Dodgers are capable of, even if they haven’t shown it a ton through the first couple playoff games. Davies is scary with not a lot of upside.
Pros – Oakland isn’t a super scary offense and was right about average among all the offensive categories. Urquidy did pitch pretty well over 4.1 IP in the Wild Card series, perhaps calming some fears about an uneven 29.1 regular season innings.
Cons – Honestly, that’s about where the good news stops on paper. Urquidy had a putrid 14.7% K rate which looks wildly out of character with his other numbers along the minors and majors. The swinging strike rate was barely over 9% and the HR/9 was 1.21. Perhaps the scariest issue is he got smacked by RHH. Over 53 batters faced, he gave up a .368 wOBA, .858 OPS and a 2.19 HR/9. The ERA was great at 2.73 but the FIP was 4.71 and the xFIP was 5.36. The floor is disaster here.
Pros – Morton had a tough time this year with health and other issues, but he did perhaps find something approaching his groove with the last two starts. He gave up 12 hits across 10 IP, but he did whiff 14 hitters and generated 14 ground balls. That’s a little more like what we know with Morton the past few years. He also is stretched out with 94 and 93 pitches thrown in those starts. He also held RHH to a 0.42 HR/9, drastically important in this start. Morton is at least the cheapest starter to use for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7.
Cons – Other than it’s the Yankees on the other side? Morton struggled with a 1.39 WHIP, worst since 2012 with the Pirates. The ground ball rate was the absolute worst of his career at 41.6% even with a swinging strike rate over 12%. The 24.7% K rate isn’t a ton against New York and it’s bold to go against them without a ton of strikeout upside on paper. New York did have the sixth-worst fly ball rate to RHP, but they boasted the best HR/FB ratio in MLB at 20.1%.
Pros – Tampa has the worst K rate to RHP among the teams left standing, so perhaps Tanaka can use his 22.3% rate on the season. It’s bizarre to see his K rate that low with a 14% swinging strike rate, so maybe “Playoff Tanaka” shows up this time. Having no rain delays could help him a good bit. The Rays were also just 20th against the splitter, which could save the veteran.
Cons – The wOBA and average to LHH look great at .275 and .188 each, but Tanaka had a 2.03 HR/9 to LHH and a 4.88 FIP. Righties tagged him for a .365 wOBA and a .330 batting average, so there’s extreme danger on each side of the plate. Also, since Aaron Boone decided to use Deivi Garcia as an opener, the Yanks have now used nine pitchers not named Gerrit Cole the past two nights with the series tied. If Tanaka struggles early, he might have to wear one much longer than normal in the postseason.
At this point, it’s best to treat the bet as a double up since the playoffs can make things very weird. I expect Anderson to do the heavy lifting, but 12 total is attainable. Remember, go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!
Let’s get after it today my friends!
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On the 9.30 MLB DFS Preview, Mitchell and Michael check out the first few games of the newly revamped Playoff format!
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I’d be lying if I said that I planned on writing for the postseason. However, it’s been a #weird season and that’s given way to a #weird playoff format. We have a whopping eight games today, and a slate that size deserves the full Starting Rotation treatment. We have a ton of interesting arms on the slate and plenty of aces to sort through. Let’s get right after this enormous playoff slate with a full MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.30 and get ready to kill it today/tonight!
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Pitch Data – FB – 13th CB – 5th
Of all the arms on the slate today, Glasnow has the highest total K rate at 38.2%. His swinging strike rate is 14% which is easily a career high mark. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates are under 40% and if you’ve been reading this all year, you know that he’s been somewhat unlucky this year. His 4.08 ERA does not match the 2.75 xFIP nor the 3.66 FIP so there’s still potential for better.
Some of the bad luck lies in his 1.73 HR/9 and that’s far above his career mark of 1.29. Glasnow is fairly even to both sides of the plate as far as K rate and wOBA. The slight concern is the 2.45 HR/9 to RHH, which the Blue Jays do have a good bit. You can point to the pitch data not being great, but these aren’t the typical fastballs and curveballs. Even though the Jays don’t K a lot at under 22%, Glasnow is just different. Somehow, he doesn’t have a start against Toronto this season but I believe he puts the Jays away in this game.
Pitch Data – FB – 24th CT – 29th CB – 21st SL – 18th
Buehler has been anything but a cash pitcher all season, but if he can’t get it done in this spot, I’m out of answers. We’ve hammered the Brewers all season long with righty pitching since they have the highest K rate among playoff teams and that’s only because Detroit didn’t make the field. They are 24th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The ISO makes it all the way up to 19th and the pitch data really favors Beuhler here as well. He uses the fastball or cutter almost 75% of the time and Milwaukee has been brutal against those pitches.
Much like Glasnow, the home run ball has bit him this season. Through 36.2 IP, he’s got a1.72 HR/9 against his career mark of 0.72. The K rate overall ended at 28.6% which is more than respectable and slightly under his career 31.9% mark. The odd part is his swinging strike rate is 12.3% which is the highest he’s recorded. I don’t love the fly ball rate of 41.9% but the hard hit rate of 25.8% mitigates that. Also, the Brewers are just 13th in fly ball rate to RHP. The only knock other than inconsistency is the pitch count. He hasn’t been above 71 in a game since late August. Reportedly, he threw 90 in a simulated game. If the Dodgers unleash him, the ceiling is 30+ DK points.
Honorable Mention
Max Fried – The Reds were 25th in wOBA to LHP, 26th in OPS and 28th in OBP. They do sport a top 12 ISO but combine it with a top 10 K rate of 24%. Fried is uber talented and had a 22.3% K rate with a 0.32 HR/9, tied for fifth-best among any starter in the field. Injuries led to some consistency issues, but $8,000 could be a cheap way to a big performance if fitting in big bats.
Chris Bassitt – He doesn’t have the greatest chance to match the K potential that the other arms posses but he’s lights out at home. Over 37.1 IP, he has a 0.72 ERA, .231 wOBA and a 1.02 WHIP. Even RHH have a .236 wOBA against him and Chicago does whiff 26.2% against RHP, the third-highest rate in the field.
Pitch Data – FB – 1st CT – 1st SL – 15th CB – 3rd
I won’t say you’re wrong if you decide to play Bauer in cash, but I do believe he has the clear worst matchup of the main two I’ll be using. The Braves were mid-pack through the season in K rate at 23.6% but Bauer is only off of Glasnow’s K rate by 2.2%. It’s not a sterling matchup for the pitch data either with the Braves being the best team against the fastball/cutter mix, 64% of Bauer’s pitches. The righty has also survived a 47.8% fly ball rate all year and the Braves were fourth in fly ball rate to RHP.
Bauer has held RHH to just a 0.26 HR/9, which is sparkling to say the least. Lefties have a 1.89 HR/9 (Freddie Freeman one-off) but they whiff at the higher rate, over 37%. Atlanta was top two in average, slugging, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against RHP this season. There’s risk for Bauer, but he is MORE than capable of turning in a 30 DK point start.
Pitch Data – FB – 17th CB – 15th CH – 9th
The righty for the Astros is the ultimate GPP play for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.30. He did throw 61 pitches on Saturday, but was kept on that count to pitch in this game. Can he go 100 deep? Maybe not but the price doesn’t really require that. If the Twins stick with the same lineup, they’ll have five LHH in it and that’s a plus for McCullers. He’s held them to a .281 wOBA overall with a 28.8% K rate. The Twins as a team whiff at the sixth-highest rate in the field, 25.5%.
McCullers does have some serious risk. When he’s been on the road this year, he’s gotten hammered to the tune of a 7.33 ERA with a .401 wOBA and a 1.54 HR/9. At his point, the Twins have to be feeling pretty tight with their postseason history. It has not gone well recently at all and that could play into an advantage for McCullers. The fears are the road splits and the pitch count. Houston has a rested bullpen for this one since they only used Framber Valdez yesterday. McCullers is only if you’re playing a few lineups.
Honorable Mention
Hyun Jin-Ryu – The Rays are a feast or famine team against lefties. They are top 10 in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ but they whiff at the highest rate in baseball at 28.5%. Ryu posted a 26.2% K rate and a .286 wOBA to RHH.
I like the very first game of the day for our Counting K’s game on MKF. Even if there’s a few runs, you have talented pitchers and some decent K rates for the teams floating around. The 14.5 mark is my favorite, but as always be smart with the bankroll. Remember go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!
Let’s get after it today my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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