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Minnesota Twins

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Lambert to the Slaughter

5 years ago

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All but one game of today’s 15-game slate is under the lights, giving the 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks a buffet table of offense and a handful of stacks. With a somewhat light host of available money pitchers, load up on offense on the road to the long green.

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9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Roberto Perez, CLE vs. PHI

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,700)

Perez is smashing hurlers to the tune of .395/.447/.558 this month with a pair of homers and 12 RBI. His numbers haven’t changed much compared to last season…that is, with the notable exception of his Isolated Power, which sits at .216 after a woeful .095 last season. Perez has also boosted his BABIP to .286, a 29-point jump from 2018. Phillies hurler Drew Smyly has a 2.64 HR/9 rate that may suggest Perez being a part of an Indians stack.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Trey Mancini, BAL vs. SEA

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,200)

There’s also OF eligibility with Mancini, who might be the hottest hitter in the game entering today’s play. He’s in the midst of a 15-for-32 (.469) run that includes four homers and 16 RBI over the past week. Mancini has a modest 31.8% fly ball rate, but counters that with a 24.3% HR/FB rate. A look at his numbers might suggest he’s scalding the dickens out of the ball, but Mancini’s hard contact rate (37.3%) is just above average. Facing the fading shell of Felix Hernandez should allow Mancini to continue his beatdown of AL pitching.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at DET

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,800)

Moncada has a .986 OPS in 34 at-bats against Tigers pitching this season with three homers among his 11 hits. He’ll also have 3B eligibility, making him a solid 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks candidate. The power (one homer) isn’t as prolific as it was earlier in the season, but his overall .228 Isolated Power is a mild indication of what’s capable of down the road. The number of soft hits has reduced, with harder contact rate (39.5%) and an uptick in line drives makes him a good play in a potential stack lineup against 1-11 Tigers hurler Jordan Zimmermann.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,600)

He’s something of a value at FanDuel as he gets a plumb matchup against Eric Skoglund, he of the 8.36 ERA in 14 innings. Sano has homered four times in his last seven games, driving in 10. A .265 batting average this month has been modest, but Sano has a .991 OPS driven in part by a surprising .379 OBP. It was once said Sano could hit 50 homers with a better OBP, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Although he fans 36% of the time, his 12.7% walk rate has bolstered his production. Well, that, and the 51.7% hard contact rate.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD vs. COL

DK ($3,400), FD ($4,300)

It looks like Seager is going into the postseason with momentum, having hit .405 with five ribbies in the past week. Like the rest of the Dodgers, Seager will be giddy at the prospects of hitting against Rockies rookie pitcher Peter Lambert, who has a composite .333/.402/.597 slash against left-handed hitters and has allowed a combined 17 homers in 86.1 innings. It’s at this point where secondary stats are unnecessary. You should know what to do next.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Tucker, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,000), FD ($2,800)

Look for Tucker’s name to frequent the Astros’ lineup now that they’ve clinched a postseason berth. He’s striking out at a 26.1% rate, but the power he lacked in his brief time in the bigs last season has shown up, evidenced by a .205 Isolated Power rate. Tucker’s fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both 46.9%; you could look at every other player in the majors and probably won’t get that odd pairing again.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Matt Beaty, LAD vs. COL

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,700)

Beaty should be in the lineup, having hit .283 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI in 46 at-bats against Rockies pitching this season. Beaty has mauled righties with an .881 OPS and also fares better at home, where his OPS sits at .865. September hasn’t been too productive for Beaty (.194 BA, .654 OPS), yet he’s still online to make the postseason roster. He’ll continue to make hard contact (41.7%) at an above-average level, while Beaty’s 13.2% HR/FB rate makes the most of a limited fly ball rate (33%).

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($4,300), FD ($4,000)

A 1.093 OPS with six homers and 17 RBI this month makes us feel like Jimenez is sending a warning shot toward opposing pitchers in 2020. The most encouraging number is a .403 OBP. My goodness, if Jimenez is learning plate discipline, then it’s time to be afraid. He’s not going to be in this range of salary a year from now, so I’d enjoy the rising hard contact rate (37.8%) and a 48.6% ground ball rate that I’d bet will closer to 40% next September. Like his teammate Yoan Moncada, feasting off Jordan Zimmermann makes Jimenez a good play.

9/20 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/20 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: Skgolund will see a stack of righties from Minnesota, including the aforementioned Sano. Jonathan Schoop ($2,700 FanDuel) and Ehire Adrianza ($2,000 FD) are values if either/or is in the lineup. I’d look strongly at Mitch Garver ($5,500 DraftKings), and Nelson Cruz ($5,300 DK) as well.

9/20 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Chicago White Sox: Jimenez and Moncada would lead the way. Zach Collins ($2,400 FD) is an interesting value play due to his power. Jose Abreu ($4,500 DK) is a must, as he has two career homers off of Zimmermann.

9/20 Hitting Stack to Consider: Los Angeles Dodgers: Beaty and Seager are part of a group that includes Joc Pederson ($4,200 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4,500 FD), Gavin Lux ($3,000 FD) and Will Smith ($2,600 FD) who are good options to tee off on Lambert.

5 years ago 0 comment

9/19 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Twins Will Get You Wins

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!

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9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Montgomery

The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.

New York Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney (DK)

I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100^th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)

Toronto Blue Jays at Gabriel Ynoa

I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.

9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen

St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)

9/19 DFS HittingCatcher

Austin Romine, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($3,600)

Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.

9/19 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Rowdy Tellez or JustinSmoak, TOR at BAL

DK (both$3,900) FD ($2,600/$2,700)

Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.

9/19 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($5.300) FD($3,900)

Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.

9/19 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

D.J. LeMahieu, NYY vs. LAA

(DK $4,600)

LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.

9/19 DFSHitting Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($4,700)

Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.

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9/19 DFS HittingOutfielders

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAA

DK($4,500)

It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100^th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.

Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHC

DK ($4,200) FD($3,700)

Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98^th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.

Additional options:

C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)

1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)

2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)

OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks: Good Time at the Cole K Corral

5 years ago

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The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.

The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.

Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX

DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100)

Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.

Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300)

The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.

Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET

DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500)

Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.

I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.

Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.

If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB

DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600)

Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.

Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.

5 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting Premium

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: Lovin’ The Dawgs Today!

5 years ago

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Tuesday’s Cash with the Flash Best Bets focused on MLB and we finished 1-1. The Cincinnati Reds didn’t do what I thought they would do, and the Kansas City Royals did exactly what we thought they would.Break-evendays are better than losing.Baseball has been a nightmare this season. Our own MLB Movin...

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks and Picks: It’s Easy to Be Brave

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700) FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100) FD($4,400)

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300) FD ($3,100)

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400) FD($4,100)

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD($3,100)

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD($2,400)

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300) FD($3,500)

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD($3,100)

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 1

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

GPP MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for August 31

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP MLB Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Tim Melville (COL): 7.50 Runs

I’m just going to start off my saying I’m really not impressed with what either team has to offer in Coors field tonight. Tim Melville has two starts this season so it’s hard to overlook his performance in the past even though he holds 0.75 ERA at the moment. His pitch movements and velocity look right on par with league averages and he utilizes a lot of slider (56%), a breaking pitch that helped Agrazal limit damage to three earned runs last night. If you did not read my article yesterday I talked about some of the more effective pitches in Coors and breaking pitches statistically are. Not a full fade here and once again I’m not looking at Melville as a viable pitching option, but I think he can limit damage here if he can keep up with that high GB rate through two starts. The Pirates are slashing .325 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 100 WRC+ for the month of August.

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4400 FD|$5700 DK), Starling Marte ($4300 FD|$5800 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3900 FD|$5600 DK), and Jose Osuna ($3300 FD|$5400 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 6.50 Runs

Same applies as I talked about with the Pirates. Musgrove is not very good but neither is Colorado with their .160 ISO and 78 WRC+. I will have a share or two of Coors just to cover me but I’m just not sold.

Preferred Stack: Charlie Blackmon ($4500 FD|$5700 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4600 FD|$5400 DK), Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5600 DK), and Sam Hilliard ($3100 FD|$4100 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez (CWS): 5.75 Runs

There are a few games I like today but this is probably my favorite. The Braves face Lopez who is hot and cold at times, but overall has had an “ok” year. Lopez doesn’t have a lot of variation to his pitches, he throws a ton of four seam fast ball and the Braves have seven players in their line slugging .500 or better to the four seamer. Atlanta has let us down on a few occasions but I’m willing to overlook that today. The Braves are slashing to a .328 wOBA, .189 ISO, and 101 WRC+ in the month of August.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Jorge Lopez (KCR): 5.00 Runs

Preferred Plays: Renato Nunez ($3300 FD|$4400 DK), Trey Mancini ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Jonathan Villar ($3500 FD|$5100 DK), and Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$4300 DK). Hanser Alberto ($2900 FD|$4000 DK) offers some salary relief as well.

GPP MLB Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Pablo Lopez (MIA): 5.75 Runs

Preferred Plays: Juan Soto ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), Anthony Rendon ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Adam Eaton ($3600 FD|$4600 DK), and Matt Adams ($2800 FD|$4300 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Dillon Peters (LAA): UPDATE

Pitching

Stephen Strasburg RHP (WSH): 2.75 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 4.00 Runs
Brock Burke LHP (TEX): UPDATE

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 30

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Dario Agrazal (PIT): 7.65 Runs

The Rockies will definitely be popular tonight as they usually are at home, especially with with some intriguing low to mid range pitching options on the slate. I always look for a reason to not ride the Coors chalk, but I will never advocate a full fade. After a relatively good start, Agrazal has found a bit of a struggle and has surrendered three or more runs in his last five games. Agrazal is throwing a ton of sinker at 56% and I believe this bodes well for him in this matchup. Breaking pitches have been found to be some of the more effective pitches in Coors and Agrazal is only throwing his fastball at an 11% clip. I would not want to play him just due to poor strike out upside but I can see Agrazal finding some success here due to his pitching arsenal.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), Trevor Story ($4300 FD|$5600 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), and Sam Hilliard ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Team Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

We have a pretty good chance at getting Houston at low ownership and in a great spot. Trent Thornton has been underwhelming for the month of August, allowing hitters to slash to a .364 wOBA, .535 SLG, and .348 OBP. This Houston offense is not quite as explosive as they were a month ago, but they are still producing extra base hits as indicated by their 138 WRC+. Overall power is down to righties over the last two weeks (202 ISO) but this offense is potent and can go off on sub par pitching any given night.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Team Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET):UPDATE

This is another game that should be considered as an alternative to Coors if you’re looking to get away. I’m assuming a pretty high implied run total here with the matchup against Jackson and the 25th ranked Tigers bullpen. The Twins WRC+ of 107 is a little lower than I’d like to see from them right now but they are still slashing .210 ISO and .478 SLG for the month of August. The power is there to get the job done tonight and as we all know Jackson struggles a ton with the long ball, surrendering 3.08 HR/9 this season. Jackson gave up six earned runs in his most recent start against the Twins.

MLB Team Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 6.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Team Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela (PIT): 6.85 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Pitching

Kyle Gibson RHP (MIN): UPDATE
Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): UPDATE
Anibal Sanchez RHP (WSH): 3.50 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Fantasy Stacks: Winning Edge for August 23

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 13-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Fantasy Stack: Houston Astros

vs.LHP Jose Suarez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

**Low Risk

Jose Suarez takes the mound for the Angels tonight and he will be facing the power packed Houston Astros. Suarez has been anything but good, allowing righties to slash to a .431 wOBA, .630 SLG, and .417 OBP. He has allowed 33 earned runs across 35 innings pitched to them. Suarez struggles with the long ball, allowing 2.70 HR/9 backed by a 42% flyball and 44% hard contact rate. He has allowed at least four earned runs or more in his last four starts. Pretty steep price to pay here for the Astros, but they continue to slash above their season averages for the month of August and get another great matchup here tonight.

Preferred Plays: George Springer ($4100 FD|$5300 DK), Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3300 FD|$5200 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

The Brewers come in behind the Astros for second highest IRT on the slate (as of 5 AM EST). They will face an inconsistent Merrill Kelly, who has an ERA of 5.60 on the road compared to his stingy 3.66 ERA at home. Kelly has pitched the worst he has all year in the month of August, allowing batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .571 SLG, and .373 OBP. Milwaukee isn’t showcasing a bunch of power in their lineup right now, but they are getting on base and creating runs as indicated by their 117 WRC+ to righties over the last two weeks. I’ll take the over on this one and look for some extra base hits from the Brew Crew.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Fantasy Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Fantasy Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): 5.15 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Nelson Cruz ($3800 FD|$5800 DK), Mitch Garver ($3200 FD|$4900 DK), Miguel Sano ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and CJ Cron ($3000 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP RHP Anthony DeSclafani (CIN): 4.50 Runs

**High Risk

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), Starling Marte ($3600 FD|$5400 DK), and Adam Frazier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK),

Pitching

Jack Flaherty RHP (STL): 3.25 Runs
Lance Lynn RHP (TEX): 3.90 Runs
Vincent Velasquez RHP (PHI): 3.90 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

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