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Thursday night football brings us to Atlanta for a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and Atlanta Falcons (4-5). The Patriots are coming into this Thursday night match up riding a 4 game winning streak. Mac Jones has really come into his own during that stretch. The Falcons on the other hand are reeling following a brutal 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. They look to get back on track tonight but the matchup for them will be super tough.
Matt Ryan – 251.5 Passing Yards – More
I expect the Falcons to playing from behind most of this game tonight. And because of that, they will more than likely be forced to throw the ball a ton tonight. If we first take a look at Ryan’s season, he’s hit 252 passing yards in all but 4 games this season. The bad thing for us is that half of those games have come in the last 3 weeks.
Last week was Ryan’s worst game of the season, throwing for only 117 yards and 2 picks. He’s alternated good and back weeks over the past month. Ryan is due for his bounce back game here.
If we switch gears and take a look at the Patriots defense we can see that it’s been 4 weeks since they gave up at least 252 passing yards. However, it’s also been a few weeks since the Patriots have actually faced a competent QB. Last weekend Casey Keenum took the majority of the snaps after Mayfield was hurt, the weekend before that they faced Sam Darnold. We’re not talking about MVP caliber quarterbacks.
My gut here is telling me that Matt Ryan gets back on track and does his best to keep the Falcons in this one in front of the home crowd. I’m going with the ‘More’.
Mac Jones – 245.5 Passing Yards – Less
While the Falcons defense against the pass has been atrocious this year, I just don’t think the Mac Jones will need to throw the ball enough tonight to get to his target of 246 yards. If we look at this Jones season as a whole he’s only reached this number 4 times. During their 4 game winning streak he’s only reached 246 once and that was against the Jets 4 weeks ago.
The Patriots should be up early in this one and if they are I can see them just funneling the ball to Stevenson the majority of the game. He had a breakout game last weekend and if this one gets out of hand, he’ll have a chance to replicate his productivity from last weekend. I’m going w/ the ‘Less’ on Mac Jones.
Matt Ryan vs. Mac Jones (+6.5)
In the more or less section I’ve highlighted my thoughts on both quarterbacks tonight. My gut is telling me we’re going to see very different playbooks from both teams tonight. Ryan will be forced to throw the ball often tonight while Mac Jones and his teammates should be up most of the game and will rely on the run. In the end, Ryan should get at least 6.5 more passing yards than Mac Jones.
Kyle Pitts vs. Jakobi Meyers (+10.5)
This is a tougher one to pick. If the Falcons have any hope of winning this one, or just keeping it close they’re going to need to the tandem of Ryan and Pitts to be productive. The volume for Pitts has been there as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in his last 8 games. That said, the last few weeks haven’t been the greatest for Pitts as he’s failed to reach 100 receiving yards in each of the last 3 weeks.
The matchup tonight screams that Pitts will struggle. The Patriots have been one of the best teams against tight ends all season. They’ve given up more than 55 yards receiving to tight ends just once this season. While Pitts isn’t a normal tight end, I do think tonight will be a struggle for him against a solid Patriots defense.
In Meyers we’re dealing with someone who has been pretty consistent for the most part this season. What we can expect tonight from Meyers is 45-50 yards receiving. If we tack on the additional 10.5 bonus we can expect him to get near 60 yards tonight. With my expectation that Pitts will struggle tonight, the extra 10.5 yards that Meyers will get tonight has me picking him in this match up. Meyers for the win tonight.
Good Luck tonight and hope to see you cash!
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Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 3rd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints
2020 Record: 12-4
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael
Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen
When it comes to the Saints for the 2021 season we all have the same question: Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill behind center as the replacement for future Hall of Famer Drew Brees? I am going to try my best to parse through this very difficult scenario, but when drafting any of the offensive players this needs to be at the forefront of your mind. I love the visual representation that this heat map provides.
We all know by now that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael are among the most creative coaches when it comes to their play calling and in some cases too creative. The offensive line will be once again a top-eight unit led by tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk and the same offensive weapons Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, TreQuan Smith, and a healthy Michael Thomas. The only “key” offensive talent gone from last season is Jared Cook who managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns on only 37 receptions.
The defensive unit was top three in both offense and defense in terms of DVOA in 2020 but they lost Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. They did what they could to address these losses by drafting defensive end Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner, and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. They should still be a very solid defensive unit overall but I am expecting at least a little regression in the early part of the season while the rookies get up to speed so that is something to keep an eye on if you are still playing seasonal leagues with team defenses.
The Thomas injury changes the landscape
Alvin Kamara: ADP 3.6
If Taysom Hill ends up being the starting QB or if it even looks like it is leaning that way there is no way that I am taking Kamara at 3-4 overall. I honestly don’t even know if I would take him in the first round. Before you grab your pitchforks hear me out. In the 11 games where Brees was at QB Kamara averaged 12.45 carries for 63.18 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns which is not far off from the 15.5 attempts, 59.25 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is Kamara’s receiving upside or lack thereof. With Hill, he caught 10 passes for 12.75 yards per game and no touchdowns while with Brees running things he averaged 6.63 catches, 64.1 yards per game, and five touchdowns. Basically, the short passing game that a traditional QB will use (like Winston) is replaced with the read option in Sean Payton’s play calling and that the single most important part of Alvin’s game from a fantasy viewpoint.
Much Shorter with Famous Jameis. He will push the ball downfield more than any of us have seen from the Saints in ages but Winston does not run much. If he wants the starting job he will have to be smarter with the ball and utilize the check-downs as so many of his turnovers came from the choice to extend plays beyond where he should have resulted in interceptions or fumbles. Kamara in this instance is appropriately priced around the third or fourth overall selection.
Michael Thomas: ADP 30.6 NEW ADP (Post Injury): 68.00 (97.00 Max)
We have a very small sample with the new ADP for Michael Thomas post ankle surgery news. I wish we would have known about this surgery happening so late but we work with what we’ve got. The best thing that I can do is read the tea leaves and tell you where I stand. Hint, not optimistic.
First, the surgery. We all know he had a high ankle sprain in week one of 2020. The thing that we didn’t necessarily know was that in addition to that he had a tear of the ankle deltoid ligament. What is baffling is that the only option for that tear is surgery. Rest does not help. He knew this through the entire 2020 season and offseason and chose to try rehab only and now here we are. He spent almost a full year with scarring in that ankle to go along with a potential lack of blood flow to the surrounding tissue possibly creating other problems that have not yet surfaced.
I said all of that to say all of this. I can not recommend Thomas anywhere on my board. We know the injury but we have no clue what further damage has taken place outside of this tear. There is no promise he will even see the field. The ankle is complicated medically and for the long-term health of Thomas, the Saints may choose to shut him down. I would rather take a chance on a WR2/WR3 that I know will see the field at the 80-90 ADP I see him settling at.
I love Thomas regardless of who is at quarterback and I am getting him anywhere I can. He is the only real passing option on that team and even injured he played incredibly well while Taysom was on the field. The one thing Brees and Hill have in common is they know to target Thomas early and often. In four starts Thomas was targeted 37 times, catching 30 of them for 343 yards. he gets a slight hit in touchdown equity due to the run heavy approach with Taysom but the zero TD’s was in part a fluke. If you extrapolate out to a full season I would expect to see between 1400-1500 yards and anywhere between 5-7 touchdowns for a back half of the third round pick.
If Jameis wins the job I would not be at all surprised if Thomas finished the season as the overall WR1. It is easy to forget but once upon a time Brees threw the ball downfield. In 2018 Drew Brees was 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt and in that season Michael Thomas caught 125 passes for 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. He had one injury-riddled season with what was essentially running back at QB and people are ready to write him off. I do not get this.
Latavius Murray: ADP 140.43
Murray is a guy that I would love to have on my roster as a standalone player if we get any kind of confirmation of Hill winning the job. Murray is the more traditional back and they used him much more effectively during the stretch when Hill was starting. in weeks 10 and 11 he carried the ball 31 times for 5.58 YPA, 173 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Saints choose to go with the run first option I can see Murray getting 12 or so touches per game to ensure they do not get Kamara hurt playing an inside run game that he really isn’t known for.
Adam Trautman: 166.3
I know I am sounding like a broken record but full fade with Hill at QB. If we get Winston Trautman is an interesting 15th round target for a tight end. I am probably not going to get much of him on the roster just due to the unsure nature of what is going on but Winston threw to his tight-ends a lot in Tampa, especially in the RedZone. For example, in 2018 between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate they accounted for 854 yards and 7 TD’s, 770 yards and 5 TD’s in 2019, and 1,023 yards and 12 TD’s in 2017. As I said, I am probably not going here but the case can certainly be made to take a share or two when it makes sense.
Jameis Winston: ADP 169.4
I’m going to keep both Hill and Winston quick. Both of their ADPs are great and the upside that they both provide in their way is well beyond how they are being drafted. If you want to draft both and stash one until we get some clarity on the situation that would be a solid late-round approach. For those of you with a short memory, Winston was a high-end QB1 before coming to New Orleans. Looking at the two Jameis has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Just be prepared to see a ton of turnovers.
Taysom Hill: ADP 207
See above, slightly less upside.
Tre’Quan Smith: ADP 213.3 (New ADP after Thomas Injury): 149.00
Smith lands as the de-facto WR1 unless we hear otherwise or there is an acquisition. Even with the five round bump in ADP so long as we have Winston throwing the ball I am comfortable with the new average draft position. The reasons I liked him have not changed. Winston can make use of his speed in a way that Brees never could and he could be on his way to a breakout in 2021.
Only recommended as a late-round flier if Winston is throwing the ball. You can get him in the last round and they will need a number two receiver. Smith can get down the field in a hurry and has shown flashes of what could be but Brees just did not have the arm strength to utilize him. Winston will not have that problem. Smith had an 85.6% route participation percentage and typically saw an 80+percent snap share on a team that almost exclusively ran two and three-wide sets. you can get him in round 20 all day right now.
The only thing that I am fairly certain of is that they will be a good team this year. How good? I have no clue. They will have a solid defense but I have no clear read on this team without knowing who will be under center. I like the defense a little more with Hill under center from a defensive perspective but the upside is so much higher offensively with Jameis throwing it. Hopefully, we will get clarity early in training camp in which case I will adjust my projection appropriately.
Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 2nd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers
2020 Record: 5-11
Head Coach: Matt Rhule
Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady
Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow
The NFC South is shaping up to be a really interesting start to the post draft fantasy breakdowns just due to the combination of coaching changes, signings, drafts, and comeback scenarios. The Carolina Panthers are staying put from the coaching side but they rescued brought in Sam Darnold from the Jets this season and one thing that we have seen consistently is that players tend to do better when they get away from Adam Gase.
Knowing how Joe Brady ran his offenses in previous seasons one thing is clear. Teddy Bridgewater severely handcuffed him in terms of how deep he could go into the playbook. If you are unaware he was the offensive mastermind for LSU in the late 2010s. He wants to air it out and if you look at this heat map image you can see how even Drew Brees targeted receivers further downfield than Bridgewater. Now look at how Sam Darnold brings the ability to push the ball downfield compared to both and you know what Brady aiming for.
The question is: Will the offensive line be able to protect better this year? The Panthers ended the season as the 31st ranked offensive line. With players like Cam Irving, and Pat Efflein joining the team from the Cowboys and Jets, and the return of John Miller, Matt Paradis, and Taylor Morton I expect the line will be much improved. This will allow Robby Anderson and DJ Moore much more time to get down the field. It also helps that Run CMC is back on the field giving defensive coordinators much more to think about.
Sam Darnold: ADP 180.1
This is the biggest question mark on the Panthers team this season. How much of Sam Darnold’s issues were on him and how much of it was caused by Adam Gase’s ineptitude? I am leaning towards Gase after seeing how players like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Kenyan Drake performed after leaving. If CMC stays healthy and the line improves even to mediocrity at a 17th round ADP Darnold is a near end of draft QB that I could see finishing as high as QB 14-15 with burners like Robby Anderson an DJ Moore on the outside.
Christian McCaffrey: ADP: 1.3
If he is available you take him. Simple as that. He is my 1-1.
DJ Moore: ADP 50.9
Moore is the first of the pair of wide receivers left to target for the Panthers and you can pretty much copy and paste my thoughts with him and Robby Anderson below. Moore had almost 1,200 yard on 66 grabs with a quarterback who was 28th in the NFL with 7.1 air yards per attempt, the 31st ranked O-Line in the league, no McCaffrey to make the opposing defense think, and Curtis Samuel taking away targets. I would prefer his ADP to be a touch lower but if you are sitting at the turn in the 5th round and he is still available I can not imagine what his upside could be with someone who can throw it deep.
Robby Anderson: 80.4
Robby caught 95 passes for almost 1,100 yards with a QB who threw almost all of his passes at the line of scrimmage as the teams number two receiver. I already mentioned above the litany of issues on the offensive side of the ball that dampened the production for both him and Moore. I personally like Anderson’s ADP much better. I think his upside is just a touch lower than Moore, but I am splitting hairs in that regard (maybe 100 yards and a td or two) and you can get him as your wide receiver three or four depending on how early you have a tendency to draft tight-end. In a 17 game season in a competent offense I wouldn’t be shocked if Anderson ended a healthy 2021 campaign with 1300-1400 yards and well over 100 grabs.
I truly think Carolina will be a much better football team this year even if the win-loss record doesn’t show it. The Saints are still a really strong team without Brees and they have to plays the Bucs and their top defensive unit twice and having the Patriots, Washington, and Dolphins on the schedule is not doing them any favors. Joe Brady is a very innovative offensive coordinator and the tendency that players have to excel away from Adam Gase is pushing me towards a sense of optimism for Sam Darnold and the Carolina panthers as a whole.
Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 1st of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.
2020 Record: 4-12
Coaching Changes
Arthur Smith: New Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller (Titans)
Dean Pees: Defensive Coordinator (Titans)
Offense: West Coast, Zone Run, Play-Action, 2 Tight-Ends
Defense: Multiple Base Packages, Heavy Blitz. Aggressive
Fantasy Targets (By National Fantasy Championship ADP): Calvin Ridley (22.15), *Julio Jones (46.99), Kyle Pitts (86.53), Matt Ryan (88.23), Mike Davis (104.67), Hayden Hurst (167.81), Russel Gage (177.70)
*Denotes Potential Trade
The first NFL team that we will be covering is the Altana Falcons and they are an interesting team from a real-world and fantasy perspective, so I am excited to lead off with these guys. Not only did they poach the Titans offensive and defensive coordinators in Arthur Smith and Den Pees, but it looks like a guarantee that Julio Jones will be going elsewhere so we have a lot to talk about. My very broad overview is that we will see a much more balanced offensive game plan with a ton of two tight-end sets, play action, and zone run concepts and while I do expect an improvement defensively, I still don’t know to what extent. I do know that Pees came out of retirement just to coach these guys up and he was the man behind the 2007 Patriots Defense and the 2012 Ravens Defense (Both Super Bowl Champions) and loves pressure which is something that the Falcons have been terrible at over the last several seasons. Let us take a deeper look below in Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.
When it comes to coaching changes it can sometimes be a little tricky figuring out how they will translate to new organizations. I do not think that is going to be an issue for me here. By a wide margin I watched more coach’s films on the Titans than any other team in 2020 so I feel confident in my early assessment here.
If you go back to the film, you will see a few things that are prevalent in Arthur Smith’s offense in 2020. They rely heavily on the zone run, play-action, bootlegs, and 2 tight end sets or “12” personnel group. Not only did they lead the league in multiple tight end sets (35% 1 RB 2 TE “12”, 4% 2 RB 2 TE, 9% 1 RB 3 TE) with 48% of their offensive plays having at least two tight-ends but they ran the fewest plays BY FAR involving packages with at least 3 wide receivers (38% 1 TE 3 WR, 2% 0 TE 3 WR) totaling 40% of their snaps. There were a few packages combined with 3 or more WR but they did not even reach a percent, so I am leaving them out.
The Titans were also a very deliberate team averaging only 63.5 offensive plays per game which put them at 22nd slowest although, in situations where they needed to pick up the pace, they were able to do so finishing 3rd in pace at 25 seconds per play in situations where they were tied or losing and Matt Ryan has played almost his entire career in fast paced situations so while I think he wants to Davis wants to slow things down a bit I know that Falcons roster is well adjusted to playing at that faster pace.
Dean Pees has chosen to come out of retirement to coach this Falcons defense and while they have not been good and I am being very generous, they are very young and they were the most injured defense in the NFL. So much so that they had several weeks where the entire secondary and I mean all safeties and cornerbacks both starter and backup came from practice squads or the house. He has no specific base package. He runs 3-4 and 4-3 depending on the situation. The one thing that is constant with Pees is pressure. It doesn’t always show in the numbers as with the Titans over the last several years, the Ravens in the mid-2010s, and the Patriots in the mid-late 2000s his defense has finished middle of the road but he runs a very opportunistic style that comes up big in big moments. And he has been called a Super Bowl champion, twice because of it.
So, what does this mean? Let us answer the easier question first. Do we expect a ton of scenarios where the Falcons will be ahead and therefore be able to slow down the pace? No? Good. Glad to see we are on the same page there. So since we can expect plenty of offensive opportunities it is time for the tougher question. Who will be the main beneficiaries of the new offensive scheme? We will be having this conversation assuming there is no Julio. If he stays and says he will play, adjust Gage accordingly although I do not think you really should as you will see below.
Matty Ice has been a guy that you can consistently count on year in and year out to give you a good floor/ceiling combination for a great value. Last year, which many consider his worst showing since his rookie year Ryan still delivered 4,581 yards passing, led the league in completions with 407, threw 26 TDs and 11 picks. He did that while being sacked 41 times (4th worst), and only having 2.87 seconds to throw, which was less time than Patrick Mahomes (2.89) got when we were giving him a pass last season. While they will not get nearly as many plays off this season with Smith likely slowing down the tempo, they will be running a lot of two and three tight end sets, bootlegging to get him away from pressure and using a lot of play-action to give him just a bit more time to throw. Expect his air yards to go down as he dumps off to Mike Davis, Hayden Hurst, and Kyle Pitts a ton but the YAC will undoubtedly go up with the scheming that HC/OC Arthur Davis will put in place, at least if the Titans results are any indication. I still think he is a fantastic value as the 14th QB off the board.
Beast. Moving on. OK fine, I will say something. I pretty much expected Ridley to supplant Julio last year and drafted as such. Calvin was on pretty much every fantasy team I drafted last year and the 1374 yards and 9 TDs in 15 games including a couple of games where he was injured and limited proved me right. Now we get him without Julio in an offense that will still be using play-action but in a way, I feel will be much more effective and his late second/early third ADP is honestly a bit low. I get it though, I have been in several mock drafts, and on numerous occasions, I have seen no receivers go in the first round. With a 17-game season, I would not be at all shocked to see this guy easily eclipse 1500 yards and double-digit TDs.
Mike Davis took full advantage of his opportunity when CMC went down and had he started all 16 games he would have finished with around 900 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving with around 70 receptions, and 10 TDs. At 5’9” 220-230 pounds he did extremely well in the spread-style offense that lends itself to smaller, quicker backs like McCaffrey. The zone run concepts that I am expecting Atlanta to implement fit him much, much better. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (4.61 40 yard) so a single cut, get downhill, inside zone will lead to improved run stats and we all saw how great his hands are. A little something else to consider is that everyone knew that the Panthers were not going to push more than they needed to downfield leading to 32.73% of his snaps seeing 8 or more in the box (7th most among ALL running backs). In contrast, Todd Gurley saw only 21.54% 8+ man boxes. If we split the difference and he sees a drop down to 26% with zone concepts he should have plenty more room to run.
Beast #2??? Whatever, you drive a hard bargain I guess. Kyle Pitts might break every single rookie tight end record in the NFL. The talking heads all told you how good he is and considering the Falcons took him fourth overall they feel that way too. He is fast, sure-handed, and is just as capable as a receiver as he is a tight end. I kind of hinted at it at the top when talking about the scheme but Davis loves leaning on his tight ends. We know Jonnu Smith had a big year with 40 catches for 448 yards and eight touchdowns but did you know that even Anthony Firkser was able to have a few good games including an 8 catch 113 yards 1 TD game. Not nearly as huge but a backup tight end with 39 grabs, 387 yards, and a TD is more than you would expect in this day and age of a thin tight end pool. I’m saying all of that to say this. If Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser can do that on a team with a 2,000-yard rusher in Derrick Henry and two 1000 yard receivers in AJ Brown and Corey Davis what do you think the ceiling is for a man with his physical gifts with no Julio Jones and Mike Davis as the primary ball carrier?
Love him as a late-round flier. Everyone has written Hurst off because the Falcons didn’t pick up his 5th-year option but he had a career year with 56 grabs for 571 yards and six TDs. How is Jonnu getting praise heaped on him with similar numbers and Hunter Henry to compete with targets with from a far less accurate QB and an offense that was hot garbage? I mean Jonnu’s ADP is 33 (134) spots higher and Hunter Henry (117) is 60 spots higher??? Do people think Cam Newton or a rookie QB Mac Jones is going to do better than a QB who averages a 65% completion percentage over his career? The Falcons will likely run almost exclusively two tight end sets and he is an afterthought. Do yourself a favor, If you are nervous about Pitts as a rookie you can get Hurst at next to nothing and benefit from people not realizing what the Falcons will do this year.
You better take him NOW before Julio moves. As the de-facto number two wide receiver for the Falcons, Russel Gage will be closer to 100 ADP than 180 once Jones’s move is official. And by the way, last season Gage had 41 more targets than Julio last year. Look it up. 68 to 109 targets in 2020. What do you think he will have without Jones in the mix drawing away targets in key situations?
This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting teams in the early going of this NFL offseason. Between the coaching changes, style changes, big names potentially out, and future superstars potentially coming in they are shaping up to be a pretty competitive team in a division where Tom Brady is a year older, where Drew Brees will either be replaced by a 30-year-old hybrid player in Taysom Hill or the most turnover-prone quarterback in NFL history in Jameis Winston, and a Panthers franchise who just rescued Sam Darnold from Adam Gase. I’m not saying they turn the whole thing around in a single season but the NFC South is notoriously fickle so who knows what kind of craziness we will run into this year.
Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!
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Russell Wilson is dominating so far this season and is one of the MVP favorites. Wilson is averaging 274 yards through the air and Philadelphia is one of the middle-area passing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary is full of question marks and Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (23) and tied for the lowest amount of interceptions by a starting quarterback (2). The Eagles are great against the run so expect Wilson to have an increased amount of attempts and continue dominating opposing defenses.
Coming off of his worst game as a professional, Kyle Allen is looking for retribution. He already has a solid performance against the Saints from 2018. The Saints this season have been vulnerable to deep passes as they have given up eight passes of 40+ yards. Expect around 285 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Allen with the threat of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield taking up most of the defensive attention.
Jeff Driskel has played great in his two games this season against Chicago and Dallas. Going up against a subpar defense, Driskel should be the quarterback you target the most. Washington allows opposing quarterbacks 71.4 percent of passes, which leads the NFL. They also struggle to get to the quarterback as they are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks.
Baker Mayfield should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins. He has been heating up since Week 8. The Dolphins have just 13 sacks this season and have given up 23 passing touchdowns so far this season. Expect Mayfield to have upper-20s in completions with a lot of yardage. This should be the game that Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry both have great games, which makes Baker even more intriguing.
In the three games since returning from his injury, Brees is averaging 296 yards with six touchdowns. The Carolina Panthers are a middle-tier passing defense ranking in the low-teens in important statistical categories. With the weapons that Drew Brees has at his disposal, expect another huge statistical game with 30-plus completions.
Ryan is averaging 27 completions and 296 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s passing defense isn’t good either as they give up the third-most completions and the second-most yards per game at 290.9. His 7.6 yards per attempt is also a huge reason why he should be in your lineup. The passing game of Atlanta with the subpar passing defense of Tampa has all the stars aligning for Matty Ice.
Josh Allen isn’t a productive quarterback so far this season, with a 60.3 completion percentage. That ranks him tied for 42nd of all quarterbacks to have a pass attempt this season. Being behind Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Mitchell Triubisky is not a good sign of accuracy. The Denver Broncos allows the fifth-fewest passing yards at 210 yards per game. He can have a decent game but nothing special, especially for the price Allen is demanding. He doesn’t turn the ball over but isn’t accurate enough to be on your DFS team.
Trubisky’s price is low enough where I feel he could be a value option but my head is saying no chance. His season-high is 253 yards, which is pedestrian in today’s NFL. The New York Giants are coming off their bye week and the Bears will look to run the ball often as they run 40 percent of their plays. Too much of a risk to take Trubisky on this slate.
Tom Brady is not having a great year, especially by his own standards. He has not reached 300 yards passing since Week 6. He looked lost at times against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Dallas Cowboys have a better defense. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett look as if they will be ready for the game on Sunday, which limits how well he can do without many threats.
Matt Ryan over 304.5 yards and Jameis Winston under 300.5 yards
Matt Ryan is averaging 296 yards per game and the Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL. Jameis Winston is coming off an ankle sprain and the Atlanta Falcons give up 107 yards on the ground. It’s difficult to see Tampa not run the ball, especially with how they average 31 minutes on offense a game.
Perhaps the Week 7 DFS QB Picks will be more fruitful than last week, especially for those who got burned by Patrick Mahomes. There’s also us darned fools who underestimated Kirk Cousins (but didn’t call him a “weak link”), and for those who went with Jared Goff, well, we told ya.
As usual, the main slate’s the focus, so nuts to Chiefs-Broncos (Thursday night), Eagles-Cowboys (Sunday night) and Patriots-Jets (Monday night). The bye week also means no Browns, Buccaneers (Thank God), Panthers and Steelers.
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One could make a case of putting Ryan ahead of Watson, but Ryan isn’t remotely close to being the running threat that Watson is. Still, Ryan leads the league in both actual (2,011) and air (1,233) yards and will have a chance to light up a Rams defense that may not be up to the task of playing a track meet-style of contest that Atlanta will attempt to force.
The Rams are allowing 11.6 yards per catch, a total that could go higher now that Austin Hooper is a legit TE1 that can open the field for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, two of the best run after the catch receivers in the game. Ryan is a still a value play, especially for someone attempting 43 passes per contest. You can’t be faulted for going with Ryan instead of Watson and using the savings elsewhere.
The Giants are 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this a solid play on the undervalued Murray. He’s progressed over the past two weeks, completing 68.1% of his passes while raising his rating from 78.8 to 109.1 in October. The O-line is showing considerable improvement, as Murray has been sacked just one in his last 69 attempts.
Murray is now in the Top 10 in air yards (eighth, 934) and if Christian Kirk returns soon, he’ll go higher. Momentum is on Murray’s side and he’s worth the play with his current value.
A bigger bargain than Murray, Minshew will be under the radar because of his tepid performance against a suspect Saints secondary last week. My only concern here is that with the Bengals ranked dead last in run defense, this could open the door for a monster afternoon for Leonard Fournette.
Minshew doesn’t do anything spectacular, yet he does have a 9-2 TD:INT margin and a lower bad throw completion rate (16.5%) than the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco. Even if he gets 25-28 attempts, he’ll be efficient enough to rack up points.
There’s plenty of work to make Allen Fantasy-viable on a consistent basis, but I like the fact he’s 27th in bad throw percentage at 14.1%. Allen is 12th in average depth of target at 8.7 and I’m enthused about the prospects of former CFL All-Star Duke Williams becoming more involved in the offense. The Dolphins are very QB-friendly, so take advantage of the one time Allen appears here.
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With each week, Jackson falls down the rankings in bad throw percentage, and that’s a good thing. The Seahawks allow 277.8 passing yards per contest, making Jackson’s 9.4 average depth per target more tempting to use. He finally had that game rushing against the Bengals, and while it’s too much (perhaps) to expect a similar effort, let’s be mindful of the fact that Seattle does allow 4.7 yards per carry.
Watson is on pace to account for 43 touchdowns, including 11 on the ground. That alone puts him in this category, but as good as he was in September, he’s downright lethal in October. He’s completed a staggering 77.3% of his passes with a 9.4 yards per attempt while accounting for eight scores (two rushing).
Sixth in average depth of target (9.6), Watson gets a Colts defense that 22 completions, 260 yards and two touchdowns per game. Indy must also be mindful that Watson averages 7.9 yards per scramble and that we haven’t seen a monster game from DeAndre Hopkins. Yet.
The fleas from the dog Goff had on Sunday will linger for some, but it’s indoors and the Falcons’ secondary has let Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray look Canton-worthy the past two weeks. Atlanta has the third-worst defense against QBs Fantasy-wise, and if Goff can survive the Falcons blitzing him to no end (opponents average more than 14 blitzes per game on him), he has a chance to rebound nicely.
To hell with ball control. Let Cousins fling the damn ball, because it’s working. He’s gone from an average of 7.4 yards per attempt in September to 11.4 YPA in his two October games while completing 78.6% of his passes. Cousins is now in the Top 10 in air yards per pass attempt (4.4) after languishing in the mid 3s last month. The Lions allow 291.6 passing yards per game but are limiting passers to 1.2 TD tosses per. He’ll get the yards but I also think he’ll get the TDs, especially if they get TE Kyle Rudolph back into the flow.
Unlike many, I’m not enamored with this matchup. Yes, the Ravens are 29th overall against the pass. However, they’re 10th overall in Fantasy because they don’t allow touchdowns. B-More is allowing a TD pass per game on average, and QBs are averaging a mere 7.3 yards on the ground. Wilson is going to miss TE Will Dissly (Achilles, done for 2019), especially near the red zone, so it’s going to come down to whether WRs Jaron Brown and DK.Metcalf can fill in from the 4-6 targets per game that were going to Dissly.
In a Sentence: Everything hinges on Davante Adams’ toe.
In a Sentence: For all the giddy feelings about the Texans following their win over the Chiefs, the defense is still 27th in Fantasy against opposing QBs.
In a Sentence: Only Jameis Winston has a better air yards per pass completion mark than Stafford’s 8.2.
In a Sentence: He’s second to Patrick Mahomes in passing yards after the catch (825).
In a Sentence: The Redskins allow 2.3 TD passes per game, and we have yet to see a monster game from Garoppolo….just sayin’.
In a Sentence: The Cardinals are the worst Fantasy defense against opposing QBs, making Jones an interesting punt who becomes very intriguing if Evan Engram is available.
In a Sentence: The Bears allow 0.8 TD passes per game; if Bridgewater is the answer here, I sure as hell don’t want to know the question.
In a Sentence: On average, Dalton is blitzed 16.1 times per game, which means you may need a spatula to scrape him off the field.
In a Sentence: I’d put good money that you’ll see Dwayne Haskins at some point.
In a Sentence: The Bills are one of three teams (Patriots, 49ers) allowing fewer than 10 Fantasy points per game against opposing passers, so good luck with that, Ryan.
Week 6 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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We have a handful of elite quarterbacks in elite spots this week. I don’t think you want to “punt” QB in Week Six NFL DFS.
Stud Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($8,000 FD,$6,400 DK)
My top guy this week has got to be Matt Ryan, who is going up against the terrible Arizona Cardinals pass defense. They have given up 12 touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL) through the air in the first five games. The ONLY thing the Atlanta Falcons have is an elite passing game. The Dirty Birds are ranked only behind Kansas City and the Rams in total pass offense. Ryan has 12 touchdowns (2nd in NFL) and over 300 yards in ALL five games. The Atlanta run game is non existent so Ryan will need to continue to push the ball down the field by airing it out to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper.
It is also not wise to try and run against the Cardinals rush defense. They have surprisingly only given up two scores on the ground the entire season. Dan Quinn better attack what works against the Cardinals here if he wants to try and crawl out of that hot seat he is on with Arthur Blank. Ryan is 100% safe in cash games, and will be on my main lineup in GPPs. Lock him in with Hooper and whichever other wide receiver you can fit.
Stud Quarterback Pivots: Patrick Mahomes (should play, low ownership), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson
Mid Quarterback: Kyler Murray ($7,700 FD, $6,500 DK)
The last two weeks the quarterback who played the Falcons has been on the Millionaire Maker team (Mariota and Watson). Marcus Mariota bounced back from an embarrassing zero touchdown game against the Jaguars to throw three touchdowns in ATL and last week Watson threw for five. Are we seeing a pattern here? Kyler’s bounce back game starts at 4:05 ET this Sunday. The Falcons have given up 12 receiving touchdowns this season. Murray has been about as constant (of a fantasy scorer) as you could hope for early in his rookie season. He is a dual threat QB who can score through the air or on the ground. The last two weeks he has run for a touchdown in both games. Last week he ran for 93 yards against Cincinnati and threw for 253. Murray’s upside versus this defense and price makes him a nice mid tier NFL DFS play this week.
Mid Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson
I have zero interest in any cheaper quarterbacks.
Update: Kamara popped up with ankle issue at Thursdays practice. Bumping him down slightly. I am liking mid range RBs more and more this week.
Stud RB: Alvin Kamara ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK)
I am going with Alvin Kamara as my top high priced running back. Last week against the Bucs it was Teddy Bridgewater and Michael Thomas’ time to shine but against the Jags, the Saints should lean on their stud running back. The Jacksonville defense is giving up a league most 5.5 yards per carry and are tied for second most rushing touchdowns allowed (six). Kamara will obviously get his opportunities to run but also benefits by being targeted like the Saints WR2. You should always be looking to target players who get the ball in their hands the most on the offense and that is exactly what we have with Kamara. He is too talented to only have one rushing TD and one receiving TD on the year. I am calling for him to double that this week.
Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott
Mid RB: Chris Carson ($7,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
The Seahawks get the Browns on a short week after getting absolutely embarrassed on Monday Night Football. The Browns gave up three touchdowns to the running back against the 49ers. In the past two games Carson has gotten at least 22 carries and over 100 yards. He seems all but guaranteed to exceed value here. The Browns are far more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Carson should also get a few receiving targets. He caught a touchdown last game and one in the season opener. He has not run one in since game one but I think that changes here. He has multiple TD upside and should not be heavily owned in NFL DFS with so many options at running back. The ONLY thing that worries me is if Russell Wilson vultures a TD from him. If you play Carson, don’t do it on the same team as Wilson.
Mid Pivots: Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette (I really like all three of these guys and rank them very close to Carson. Paying down for two cheaper running backs isn’t a bad strategy this week) Lev Bell on DraftKings.
Punt RB: Malcolm Brown, Joe Mixon (gets first TD), Chase Edmonds (If David Johnson is out) Kenyan Drake (DK)
Update: David Johnson looks like he is going to play. You can’t play Chase Edmonds if he is in.
Update: Todd Gurley looks like he is going to sit. Malcolm Brown will start and is min price. You have to get some share.
I listed more running backs than normal here, but there is a lot to like. I do not think you need to “dumpster dive”. Everyone above is listed in order of preference.
Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK)
Smash spot for Julio. I wrote up Matt Ryan as my top quarterback and this is his number one option. I really don’t see a way that Julio fails here. I think he easily surpasses 100 yards and gets targeted in the Red Zone whenever they are close. Julio’s brute strength makes him a touchdown threat anywhere on the field. He can run through defenders and once he gets going, no one will be able to catch him. I also don’t believe the Falcons will dial back on the passing game even if they are winning because they don’t have a running back, and absolutely have to win this game. Jones let us down last week, but I’ll let that scare everyone else off him, not me.
Stud Pivots: Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen
Mid WR: Will Fuller ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK)
Oh yes, I am going right back, and it is going to be glorious. If you think the Will Fuller faders were mad last week, wait until he gets in the end zone again this week. Everyone is going to say fade him because it is unsustainable, which three touchdowns is, but he is still only $6,600 on FanDuel!? He was targeted 16 times last week and caught 14! That is the Will Fuller I know. The Cheifs’ are going to be ready for this game, and I expect them to win, which means more passing for Watson and the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are ranked about mid tier in pass defense but that’s all about to change. They really don’t look good, plus they have not had much real competition. Here are the quarterbacks they have faced: Foles/Minshew, Carr, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford and Jacoby Brissett. DeShaun Watson is about to give this defense a run for it’s money, and I will take Fuller over Hopkins at a supreme discount in NFL DFS.
Mid WR Pivots: Michael Gallup (in my main lineup), Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark (All very solid options)
Value WR: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)
A ridiculously low price, for a Hall of Fame receiver vs a terrible defense. The Atlanta Falcons are tied with the Cardinals and the Dolphins for the second most touchdowns given to wideouts. Receiving options against them are averaging 8.5 yards per catch. Larry Fitz knows he will be retiring soon however he is still way outperforming expectations. He seems like a guy who wants to get a couple more big games in before he throws in the towel and he knows how to pick them. I see him getting around 10 targets and a touchdown in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals running back, David Johnson, is questionable for the game. If he is out, bump up Fitz even further. At his price he is a phenomenal NFL DFS receiver to target.
WR Value Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Dede Westbrook, Christian Kirk (if he plays)
Update: WR Deep Value: Terry McLauin, KeeSean Johnson (don’t play if Kirk in), Marquise Goodwin, DeVante Parker
Update: Remove KeeSean Johnson if Kirk plays, removed Paul Richardson with Terry McLaurin in.
Tight End: Austin Hooper ($6,400 FD, $5,000 DK)
Duh. Against the Cardinals, in a potential shootout, and one of the league’s most productive tight ends to start the season. Easy number one, but will be highly owned. Still, I will have a lot of him and roster him on my main team. I have said it before, sometimes it is chalk because it is the best play. Don’t auto fade the best play in NFL DFS. Lock him in and figure out how to be different at other positions.
Tight End Pivots: George Kittle, Travis Kelce
I don’t think their is a big separation on NFL DFS defense this week. There is nothing I “love”. You do not have to pay all the way up for the Cowboys, but if you can fit them, they feel “safe”. I am not sure that “safe” wins GPP’s this week, but is will double you up in cash.
Order Updated
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Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.
Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.
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Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.
Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.
The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.
Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.
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Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.
Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.
He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.
As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.
Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.
Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.
Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.
Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.
Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.
Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?
Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.
Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.
Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.
Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.
Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).
Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.
The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.
Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.
Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.
Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.
At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.
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Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.
It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.
As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.
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Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.
With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.
He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.
Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.
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You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.
He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.
Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.
Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.
Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.
Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).
Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.
Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.
Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.
Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.
Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.
Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).
Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.
Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.
Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.
Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).
Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.
Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.
The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.
Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.
Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.
The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.
He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.
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