Tag:

Martin Truex Jr.

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings Analysis for Miami

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Phoenix pretty much went as I thought. I was in on Chase Elliott and he crashed. He had to push it and it ended up costing him. I am just glad he went all in trying to win. We are now down to the final four and will crown a Champion on Sunday. Below is my DraftKings NASCAR DFS analysis for Miami.

***Final Four eligible for the Championship***

The creme rose to the top as these four drivers were the dominate ones this season, each winning at least 4 times. It is no surprise that they top the odds to win Sunday’s event as all 4 drivers are +325 on DraftKings.

Homestead-Miami Speedway, a 1.5-mile track, has hosted the Ford EcoBoost 400 since 1999. Only Denny Hamlin has won this race multiple times in 2009 and 2013, but each of the other three finalists also have a recent win here (Harvick 2014, Kyle Busch 2015, Martin Truex Jr. 2017) I really do not see any of them having an advantage at this point, but qualifying could change that.

A few other drivers I think have a chance to win with favorable odds include Joey Logano, last year’s winner, at 14-1, Jimmie Johnson, the 2016 winner, at 100-1, and Alex Bowman at 50-1.

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Looking at DraftKings DFS, the top 4 are reasonably priced led by Busch at $11,400 followed by Hamlin at $11,000, Harvick at $10,800, and Truex Jr. at $10,600.

Of those outside of the championship hunt, the top 3 values I see are Joey Logano at $9,800, Alex Bowman at $7,800, and Matt DiBenedetto at $7,600. I am very leery at this point of any deep value unless someone shows something in practice or qualifying. Below are my top drivers at each price point pre-qualifying.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $10,800
Denny Hamlin $11,100
Joey Logano $9,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $7,800
Matt DiBenedetto $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,500
Austin Dillon $7,100
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,900

I will be updating my DFS picks after qualifying Saturday including my Driver usage and Optimal lineup.

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5 years ago 0 comments

DraftKings NASCAR post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The practices and qualifying at ISM Raceway have put me in a quandary as I consider the post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix. The big question for me is to play Chase Elliott or not. He dominated the 2nd practice and qualified 6th. His only chance to make the final 4 next week in Miami is to win, and I think he will take any chance to make it happen, He definitely has the talent to do so. Below is our post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix.

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Blaney, Harvick, Hamlin, Logano, DiBenedetto, and Kyle Busch all finished in the top 10 of both practice sessions and look to have good speed. Kyle Busch, Logano, and Hamlin also took the top 3 spots in qualifying and must be part of a large percentage of DFS lineups. Truex Jr. qualified 4th followed by Larson, Elliott, and Harvick, so as I anticipated the leader board is going to be filled with the top talent all day Sunday. Blaney who qualified 10th was the lowest qualifier of the 8 still in the playoff.

I Identified 5 value drivers yesterday that I thought would play a big role in DFS lineups on Sunday. They qualified about where I thought they might except for Dillon who was lower than expected on 28th. I am a little worried that they will not have the speed to compete for a top 5 finish, and I leaned on experience with Johnson and Newman as I build my lineups.

Ryan Newman – 20th
Jimmie Johnson – 22nd
Aric Almirola – 11th
Austin Dillon – 28th
Daniel Suarez – 15th

Some other drivers who intrigued me included Bowman who qualified 14th, DiBenedetto who qualified 16th, and John Nemechek who qualified 26th. I also still like the 4 plays I made yesterday using Almirola 42/1, Johnson and Suarez at 70/1, and the value play of the day Newman at 180/1 to win. The new post-qualifying odds have not come out yet, but it will be dominated I am sure by the top qualifiers and I do not believe there will be enough value on any of them so I will pass.

I ended up with 40 lineups this week on DraftKings. Pricing made it difficult to get as many of the top drivers as I wanted. I also really wanted to avoid too many deep values plays. My driver’s usages are below. Good Luck!!!

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I am leaning towards the under on both drivers here, but I think Blaney has the best chance to hit that number as he goes all in for a playoff spot.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Finally had a good week of DFS in Texas as Kevin Harvick took care of business and punched his ticket to the final 4 in Miami. This week we head to the ISM Raceway in Phoenix to fill the last 2 spots in the playoff chase. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have the advantage, but one wrong move on the track or in the pits can change that. Chase Elliott is in a major slump and is in a must win situation. I am interested to see how he practices and qualifies, because he could be an interesting DFS play.

Phoenix is a 1 mile track that opened in 1964. Since 2005 they have held 2 races a year which are currently the TicketGuardian500 and Bluegreen Vacations500. Harvick is the dominator here with 9 wins and 16 top 5 finishes. He will nearly be impossible to fade if he qualifies on top. Other drivers have also had success here like Jimmie Johnson (4 wins – None since 2009), Kyle Busch (3 wins – Including the last two at this track), and Ryan Newman (2 wins)

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DFS this week will be very specific for me with the 5 drivers racing for the last 2 spots dominating my lineups. The cream will rise to the top and I can’t imagine any of those five not being in the top 10 unless they get caught up in a wreck. For me, Elliott will be the wild card. I will be over owned on him if he qualifies and practices well, and under owned or will fade him completely if he does not.

Regarding Harvick and Truex Jr. if they get the pole I will probably be 50% or more, otherwise I most likely will play them more as a GPP pivot. Contests will be won based on how the value performs. I have five drivers I will be focusing on.

Ryan Newman – I love the fact that he has won here before and has driven very well the last 2 weeks. Outside of the Hollywood Casino 500 disaster, he has averaged 54 DK points over his last 3 finishes and is only $7,600 this week.
Jimmie Johnson – He is a legend and at $7,900 I always have to give him a look. He has finished 34th or worse the last 3 weeks, but outside of those, he has finished 10th, 8th 9th, 11th, and 11th. He has a top 10 in him and possibly a top 5 if he gets some breaks.
Aric Almirola – He has back to back 4th place finishes at this track his last 2 races, and he has proven week after week he is a top driver qualifying well and always in the mix including last week’s 2nd place finish. He just has to stay out of trouble and another top 5 is very possible.
Austin Dillon – At $6,800 he is a tremendous value. He has been consistent and if everything goes right, he has serious top 10 potential. His value goes up if he qualifies outside the top 20 as long as he practices ok. He finished 8th in this race last year.
Daniel Suarez – After a rough go of it lately, he finished 3rd last week and I think he can bring that momentum to Phoenix. I assume he will qualify in the 10-15 range and I love his top 5 potential. His last 3 finishes of 19th, 21st, and 36th here may also keep his ownership down.

***2019 TicketGuardian500 at Phoenix Results***

***2018 Can Am 500 at Phoenix Results***

Below are my pre Practice/Qualifying rankings. I will update my rankings and give my driver usage for DFS once qualifying is official.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $11,500
Kyle Busch $11,900
Kyle Larson $9,600

Mid-Tier

Ryan Newman $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900
Aric Almirola $8,100

Value Plays

Daniel Suarez $7,200
Austin Dillon $6,800
Rickie Stenhouse Jr. $6,600

I was also looking at DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s sportsbooks and FanDuel has the best odd by far. There are 4 plays that I think have great value with Ryan Newman at 180/1 being ridiculous.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Texas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Martinsville did not turn out like I has hoped as Martin Truex Jr. did exactly what I expected Denny Hamlin to do by dominating the race. Those short tracks are tricky and you have to throw your dart. This week we get back to a 1.5 mile track at the Texas Motor Speedway. There are only 2 races left for those 8 finalists still left in the playoffs to make the final four in Miami. For those below the cut line, this week in crucial as a DNF could force a must-win situation at Phoenix next week. Truex is currently on top followed by Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano in the top 4.

***Playoff Standing thru Martinsville***

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The Texas Motor Speedway is a newer track opening in 1996. It hosts 2 races yearly with the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 in the Spring and the AAA Texas 500 in the fall. Jimmie Johnson has dominated at this track with 7 wins, but many others in the race Sunday have also had success including Kyle Busch and Hamlin with 3 wins, Harvick with 2, and Logano and Newman with one. Hamlin took the race earlier this season with some longer shots in the next three spots including Bowyer, Suarez, and Jones. I will have to spread a bit more in this race, to make sure I have proper DFS coverage.

***2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Results***

Below are my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings for DraftKings. I am a little more comfortable on this type of track, but I still prefer the super speedways. I always like drivers who will go for the win and take the risks necessary to make it happen.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $10,800
Kevin Harvick $10,400
Kyle Busch $11,200

Mid-Tier

Jimmie Johnson $8,600
Erik Jones $8,400
William Byron $8,000

Value Plays

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,800
Daniel Suarez $7,200
Paul Menard $7,300

Kevin Harvick led qualifying which was no surprise. Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin were close behind followed by Kurt Busch to complete the first two rows. The other playoff drivers qualified 11th (Logano), 12th (Kyle Busch), 13th (Larson), 14th (Elliott), 15th (Larson), and 17th (Truex Jr.) so all are in decent position to make a run to the top.

It was very hard to decide who I wanted to back in this race on DraftKings. I decided to lean on the big three of Harvick, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch and wheel a bunch of value around them. It was hard to ignore Johnson who qualified 25th, but I was cautious only using him 4 times. I also thought Bowyer (24th), Newman (25th), and Menard (31st) had top 10-15 potential which would score well in DFS. I had to throw in some deep value in some lineups, but no one under $6K stood out. Below is my driver usage over 23 lineups. Good Luck!

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I am a bit leery about Logano in this spot, so I would lean under with him, but I think Jones could lead some laps and get a top 5 finish, thus, I am on the over with him.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 4 events left after a crazy finish in Kansas that saw Joey Logano edge out Brad Keselowski for the last of the 8 playoff spots. Now we head to Martinsville in NASCAR DFS to start the final-four playoff push for Miami. Kyle Busch leads the playoff standings with 46 points followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

***Current Playoff Standings. The top 4 after Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix race for the title in Miami on November 17th***

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The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.52 mile track that opened in 1947. The STP 500 is ran in the Spring and this race, the First Data 500, is always in the Fall. Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports have dominated this event in the past as Johnson has 6 wins, with the last in 2016, and Hendrick Motorsports has 16 wins since 1987. Chevrolet dominated with 6 straight wins from 2011 to 2016, but Toyota and Ford have won the last two with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin is the only other multiple winner of this event, winning back to back in 2009-2010. Johnson and Hamlin also have won the Spring STP 500 3 times each with Brad Keselowski winning it twice.

Here were my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings. This is a race where the cream usually rises to the top, and I like to choose drivers that qualify well. Sometimes you are forced to go outside the top 10 for value, but otherwise the top is best. You will also see the best drivers are slightly more expensive this week.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $11,000
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,300
William Byron $8,000
Jimmie Johnson $8,100

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Paul Menard $7,100

Qualifying was not too surprising. Denny Hamlin took the pole and will be my main play for the race. Chase Elliott qualified 2nd, but due to a blown engine in practice, he will be starting at the rear of the field. The other playoff drivers were all over the grid with Truex Jr. 3rd, Blaney 6th, Joey Logano 10th, Kyle Busch 13th, Larson 14th, and Kevin Harvick a disappointing 22nd.

I decided to play only 3 lineups this weekend. Hamlin is in all three of them, then I mixed in the rest of my favorite plays. I was planning on playing deeper, but I decided to go with less lineups in more contests. My best week ever in NASCAR DFS was using one lineup that pushed over 600 points, so lets hope this strategy works again. My driver usage is below. Good Luck!

***DraftKings DFS Picks for Martinsville***

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I am going with the under for both drivers in this play. Elliott is at the back of the pack to start and I do not see Busch contending. Neither will lead enough laps to get the needed Fantasy Points.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Kansas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 5 events left after an amazing race at Talladega last weekend. 10 drivers are still in the chase for the last 6 spots in the playoffs with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney already guaranteed spots into the next round. The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Sunday should be very interesting as some below the cut line are in must-win situations. Those above the cut line need to stay aggressive, but must avoid a DNF.

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The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track that opened in 2001 and has become a main cog in the playoff chase. Chevrolet has won 10 of the 18 events and 3 drivers in the field (Johnson, Harvick, and Logano) have won twice. Chase Elliott won last year’s event. The Digital Ally 400 event is also held at the Kansas track in May. Harvick and Johnson have each also won this event. Brad Keselowski is the only 2-time winner including this year’s event, which had a nice mix of chalk and value plays in the top 10.

***2019 DIGITAL ALLY 400 RESULTS AT KANSAS***

Below were my pre-qualifying DFS rankings. There was a huge focus on the drivers in the playoffs, but narrowing in on the value plays with Top-10 potential is crucial.

High Priced

Joey Logano $9,800
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Kevin Harvick $11,000

Mid-Tier

Clint Bowyer $8,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,000
William Byron $8,200

Value Plays

Chris Buescher $6,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Ryan Newman $7,300

Qualifying gave two playoff chase drivers some issues as Kevin Harvick was not able to qualify after after failing inspection and will start at the rear of the field. Martin Truex Jr. failed inspection twice and qualified 11th. Both have lost their crew chiefs for rest of the weekend. Harvick instantly becomes the chalk of the event in DFS. It will be hard to fade him. Rookie Daniel Hemric took the pole at just over 178 MPH. David Ragan was a surprise #2 qualifier followed by Blaney, Keselowski, and Larson in the top 5.

Kyle Busch continues to qualify poorly, finishing 18th as did other playoff chase competitors Denny Hamlin (23rd) and Joey Logano (29th). There will be a ton of jostling for position as these drivers try to move their way to the top.
I have included my final driver percentages for Kansas below over 41 lineups. My “OPTIMAL” lineup will include Harvick, Elliott, and Keselowski with 3 value plays. I am using this lineup in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

DFS NASCAR Picks: Michigan

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Prime DFS NASCAR Picks for the Consumers Energy 400 on Sunday from the Win Daily Staff.

Brad Keselowski – Finished second in the Michigan race last year and starts from the pole. Should lead some laps with some long green flag runs.

Martin Truex Jr. – He starts 15th and this will be a good track for Place Differential Points.

Kevin Harvick – Was third in final practice, starts second and should lead some laps for DFS NASCAR players.

Kyle Busch is an obvious cash game play starting 22nd and will be widely owned in GPPs

Erik Jones – was fastest in Final Practice and starts 16th, good PD potential.

Austin Dillon starts 37th because of a pre-race penalty and will be a popular choice after looking strong in pre-race events. Teammate Daniel Hemric starts 38th for the same reason and will be another popular DFS NASCAR play.

Others to consider in DFS NASCAR include Paul Menard, Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at New Hampshire: Picks and Qualifying Tidbits

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to New Hampshire for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. This comes after one of the best finishes we have seen this year, and it was between the Busch Brothers. A late caution set up a Green-White-Checkered finish in which Kurt Busch raced around the outside of brother, Kyle, to get the win. Kurt Busch led 42 laps on his way to the win at Kentucky. Moving ahead, we will take a look at the top NASCAR DFS values at New Hampshire. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

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Strategy

New Hampshire is just over one mile and they will run 301 laps in this one. This is not a track where qualifying up front means a whole lot as shown by the Top 10 in past years. There has been at least five drivers who qualified 10th or worse who have finished in the Top 10 in the last three years. There are often one or two drivers who will lead a lot of laps here, so getting one of those drivers will be key. This is a track to try and vary your NASCAR DFS team with high upside Place Differential guys and a driver or two who could lead a lot of laps.

High Salary ($9,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,900)

Kyle Busch is once again the top priced driver and he has been in contention here a lot lately. Busch has three Top 3s in his last four starts here and has led laps in each of the last five, over 95 on three occasions. His low Driver Rating over those five is 116. He has three wins at New Hampshire in his career and also has four runner-up finishes. Busch is always a good choice for NASCAR DFS if you can fit him in but it will be tough to build a team around him this week at his expensive price tag.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Once again the runner-up in price is Martin Truex Jr. and for good reason. The series has featured a lot of quality tracks for Truex Jr. lately and this is no different. Although Truex Jr. does not have a win here in his career he has four straight finishes of seventh or better and crazy good Driver Ratings. His low DR in the past five years here is 117 and he peaked at 134.6 in 2017. He has also led a ton of laps here. In the past five races at New Hampshire, he has never led less than 85 laps and has led a combined 596 laps in that span. Truex Jr. should be a good NASCAR DFS pick this week.

Kyle Larson ($9,400)

We now get to a little more affordable drivers in this range. Larson has been very good at New Hampshire in the past. He has the third best Average Finishing Position, behind Busch and Truex Jr., at 5.33. Larson posted back to back runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2017 with Driver Averages of 112.8 and 122 in those two races. He finished 12th last year after starting 20th. Larson is coming off a solid stretch of races including a fourth place finish last week at Kentucky. I love his value here as I think he should be above the $10,000 mark at a track he loves and with a boatload of momentum.

Kurt Busch ($9,200)

Kurt Busch is coming off of his first win of 2019 after he believes he should have won the week before at Daytona. Beating his younger brother head to head has Busch’s confidence sky high coming into the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. He also has a quality history at New Hampshire and discounting his DNF in 2017, he has three straight finishes of eighth or better with Driver Ratings of 91, 97, and 124 last year. He is another NASCAR DFS play that I think is underpriced.

Erik Jones ($9,000)

Erik Jones is starting to heat up as the season moves along and added a third place finish last week at Kentucky. He had 21 of the fastest laps in that race and put up 70 NASCAR DFS points. Although Erik Jone’s Average Finishing Position of 20.33 (includes a DNF) leaves much to be desired at New Hampshire, he has shown flashes here in the past and is on a roll lately. In 2017, Jones ran in the Top 10 all day and finished sixth with a Driver Rating of 111.3. I like his momentum and value at the bottom end of this salary range.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,600)

Blaney is ranked as the 12th priced driver this week and I think that is once again too low for him. Blaney has back to back Top 10s at New Hampshire and comes in with a decent amount of momentum. He has been running well lately and has an average Driver Rating of over 99 here in the past two races. Since stages were introduced, he has picked up stage points every chance here, and finished stage two second in both events the past two years. Blaney is a Mid Salary NASCAR DFS driver who I think should be priced in the High Salary range.

Daniel Suarez ($7,800)

Suarez once again lands on this list and he has not shown a reason to not be included. After leading 46 laps last week and picking up an eighth place finish, Suarez should ride his momentum into this weekend. His average Fantasy Points is equal to or better than five drivers priced above him. He always comes at a great price and helps bring some upside for a Mid Salary pick. Suarez has two Top 10s in his three career races at New Hampshire. He has an Average Finish here of 12 over the past three years which is better than some big names, including Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. He should once again return positive NASCAR DFS value this week.

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Newman comes into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum and some good track history. This has always been one of Newman’s favorite tracks and he has three wins here in his career. He finished sixth here last year with a Driver Rating of 86.8. He has four Top 10s in his last five races this year and is right on the edge of the points standings cutoff, which will only motivate him more to run well.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Dillon has once again dipped into the low salary range and it makes him a target for NASCAR DFS this week. Austin Dillon has never finished worse than 22nd at New Hampshire and has seven Top 20s in nine chances here. His Driver Rating has been steady in the upper 60s and that gives him good value at this price.

Bubba Wallace Jr. ($5,500)

Another name that they refuse to show respect on NASCAR DFS sites is Bubba Wallace Jr. He is not astar, obviously, but to be priced this low doesn’t seem right. He has been a safe play this year and has not finished outside the Top 30 in his last 10 starts. Wallace Jr. has one start at New Hampshire in which he qualified 27th and finished 24th, which gives plenty of value at a near minimum price.

Post Qualifying Tidbits

Alex Bowman ($8,900) has huge value for this weekend after not being able to put a lap down. He will start in last place and has huge Place Differential upside. Bowman went from off my list to a very valuable pick, especially in cash games, as he will be highly owned.

Kevin Harvick’s ($11,100) value also went up because of Place Differential upside. He qualified 14th and should work his way into the Top 5.

Kyle Larson ($9,400) also had a value jump but he was never expected to qualify great here. He will start 15th and is still my favorite pick of the week for New Hampshire.

Value Increased Post Qualifying

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Value Decreased Post Qualifying

Brad Keselowski ($10,700)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,600)

NASCAR Wild Card Pick (High Risk- High Reward)

Chase Elliott ($10,000)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

Post Qualifying Report for NASCAR DFS at Kentucky

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

Qualifying for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky took place on Friday. Qualifying up front at Kentucky has proven to be a huge advantage going into race day. Starting up front is key to running well and finishing well in NASCAR DFS. We will take a run through some big names and values and how they fared in qualifying and what it means for their outlooks. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

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Daniel Suarez ($7,600) qualified on the pole for Saturday’s race. He was also fastest in 10 Consecutive lap averages in final practice. Suarez should contend for his first ever Cup win. I liked him before qualifying and he should run up front a lot of the day.

Qualifying second was Suarez’s teammate Aric Almirola ($8,200). Almirola was right on the edge for me coming into qualifying and this bumped him up. He ran good here last year and grabbed a Top 10. Expect the same this year.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000) qualified third and was one of my top picks before qualifying. Keselowski has won here three times and has now become my favorite to take the checkered flag Saturday night. He is also my choice for top fantasy scorer.

Rounding out the Top 5 is Kurt Busch ($9,300) and Kevin Harvick ($10,600). Kurt Busch is a wild card here at Kentucky as he has been very inconsistent but has some good finishes as well. Harvick was third best in 10 lap averages in final practice and should be a good pick for your DFS NASCAR squad.

Daniel Hemric ($6,300) and Austin Dillon ($7,200) qualified in 6th and 9th respectively. These two teammates have qualified well most of the year. I expect Hemric to fall off quickly but Dillon has been able to hold his own with good cars. I expect Hemric to fall near 20th but Dillon to race around the 10th to 15th spot all day.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000) qualified eighth and hasn’t shown great speeds in practice. He is still one of my favorites but has fallen down a couple notches after practice and qualifying.

Kyle Busch ($11,500) is going to start 10th Saturday. This gives him some Place Differential upside. He was second best in 10 lap averages in final practice and should race his way to the front.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300) qualified 15th for the Quaker State 400. He has normally qualified in the Top 10 here but this doesn’t scare me away too much. Last year he and his team made the car better in each stage and I expect the same this year. Look for good Place Differential points from Blaney in this one.

Five big names will start all bunched up from 18th to 22nd. Denny Hamlin ($9,100), Kyle Larson ($9,500), Chase Elliott ($9,700), Erik Jones ($8,900), and Alex Bowman ($8,500) all are in big upside positions. Hamlin and Larson have raced from the back here in past years so they do not concern me and I like their upside. Elliott and Jones have done decently from the middle of the pack and I still like Jones as a good value pick. Alex Bowman worries me as he has struggled in his career to move up from bad starting positions. Target Hamlin, Larson, and Jones out of this group.

NASCAR DFS Targets

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,300)

Daniel Hemric ($6,300)

Matt Dibenedetto ($6,800)

NASCAR DFS Wild Card (High Risk Play)

Kurt Busch ($9,300)

5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Kentucky: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

NASCAR heads to Kentucky after a crazy weekend at Daytona which ended early because of rain. Justin Haley, a NASCAR Xfinity Series regular, got the win after the race was called with over 30 laps left. Six of the Top 10 finishers at Daytona are worse than 15th in points standings and five of those six are outside the Top 20. It was an unpredictable race coming in and only became harder to believe when weather ended it early. The Quaker State 400 at Kentucky should be much easier to project in NASCAR DFS.

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Strategy

The NASCAR DFS strategy for Kentucky is much more straightforward than we have seen in the past few weeks. There are 267 laps at this 1.5 mile track. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have led 438 laps combined over the past two races here with absurd Driver Ratings, which shows dominant cars can run away with the race at Kentucky. The winner of this race has qualified in the Top 10 is seven of eight events and started on the front row five times. Qualifying up front will normally translate to running up front on race day at Kentucky. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Kyle Busch is the highest priced driver on the slate at Kentucky. In his eight career starts his worst finish is 12th and he has seven Top 10s. Busch also has two wins and six Top 5s here. He has never had a Driver Rating below 108 at this track. Busch has ran the second most fastest laps over the past three years and has led 112 laps since 2016. He is a great choice this week if you can afford him.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Once again he is my favorite NASCAR DFS driver to put up the most points. Truex Jr. has been a major force here over the past few years. He won in 2017 and 2018, both in dominating fashion. In 2017, he led 152 laps and had a Driver Rating of 149. The race in 2018 was no different as he led 172 laps with a Driver Rating of 148.9. He has won every stage over the past two years as well. I expect more of the same from him this weekend. He is again my top pick before qualifying.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Keselowski has been boom or bust in NASCAR DFS at Kentucky. He has two unlucky finishes of 33rd and 39th but other than those he has never finished worse than seventh, winning three times. Keselowski comes at a bit of a discount compared to the top guys but has just as good, if not better history here than anyone. If you are looking for a more balanced lineup, Keselowski is a great elite option.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has somewhat debunked the trend of needing to start up front at Kentucky. Larson has put up back to back impressive races despite poor starting positions. In 2018, Larson started in 18th and finished ninth and in 2017 Larson started in 40th and finished second. His Driver Ratings of 96.2 and 107.6 in those two races were impressive. If you are looking for a Place Differential high upside play, Larson could be that option if he continues to qualify here as he has in the past.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Erik Jones has finishes of sixth and seventh in two races at Kentucky. Jones is also coming in with some confidence as he had Top 10 finishes in three of his last four races before the fiasco at Daytona. His Driver Rating of 99.3 here also shows his finishes were no flukes. Jones should run near the Top 5 in this one and I could see him competing for the win.

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Bowman comes in with arguably more confidence than anyone in the Monster Energy Cup Series. Bowman picked up his first career win two weeks ago at Chicagoland, also a 1.5 mile track. He earned 95 NASCAR DFS points in that win. Although I am not predicting a win, he has displayed great speed all year and this is a track where speed is huge. Having a car that can qualify up front is so important and he normally gives a good run to the pole. I expect him to start in the Top 10 and run there all day.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney just continues to drop in salary and I am not sure why. He did run into some bad luck in the middle of the season but he had three straight Top 10s going into last week and seems to be rounding into form at the right time. Blaney has back to back Top 10s at Kentucky and finished second here last year with a Driver Rating of 121.4. He started seventh and ran fourth and third in the two stages, as he kept getting better all race and ran up front all day. Get on Blaney before his NASCAR DFS price jumps, as he regains his early season form.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Suarez is another guy with only a few races at Kentucky. He has shown decent speeds here in the past with starting positions of 11th and ninth to go with finishes of 15th and 18th. He has been pretty consistent all year as well and this is a low price for him. Suarez has seven Top 10s this year and he should be able to get close to that this week.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Ragan has never finished in a worse position than he qualified at Kentucky. He has positive Place Differentials of six, two, nine, and seven over the past four races at this track. Ragan can get you positive PD points. At this price, he will be a good NASCAR DFS value.

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

Wallace has a much higher Driver Rating at Kentucky than anyone else in this price range. His Driver Rating of 64.8 over the past two years at this track is in line with drivers like William Byron and Ryan Newman, who are priced at $7,500 and $7,900. His two career races here ended with finishes of 27th and 11th.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report.

5 years ago 0 comments

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Strategy

High Salary ($9,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,900)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Kyle Larson ($9,400)

Kurt Busch ($9,200)

Erik Jones ($9,000)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,600)

Daniel Suarez ($7,800)

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Bubba Wallace Jr. ($5,500)

Post Qualifying Tidbits

Value Increased Post Qualifying

Value Decreased Post Qualifying

NASCAR Wild Card Pick (High Risk- High Reward)

NASCAR DFS Targets

Avoid

NASCAR DFS Wild Card (High Risk Play)

Strategy

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

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