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PGA DFS Picks: Fortinet Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s the start of a new PGA TOUR season and our PGA DFS picks will help us find you some winning teams at the Fortinet Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 150 golfers, including some elite players
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Not a stacked PGA DFS field, but some new faces with tour cards are ready to compete!
  • The course: Silverado CC (North Course) in Napa, CA
    • Par 72: 7,166 yards – redesigned by Johnny Miller
    • Smaller poa annua greens (some Bentgrass mixed in) will play fast this week
    • Shorter course with some tight fairways that longer hitters may be able to dominate
    • Gettable par 5s in the 550-600 range, some shorter par 4s
    • Defending champion: Stewart Cink (-21)
  • Clear skies expected this week, early starters could have advantage because of rain/moisture shortage
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass) Par 5s Gained (550-600), Proximity from 75-150 yards

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $12,100) – Rahm is the best and most expensive golfer in the field, a historic 3-1 favorite to win, the top golfer in my model, and a must-own DFS play this week. When I really like a player to run away with a tournament despite him being the obvious chalk, my goal is to double the field’s projected PGA DFS ownership. So I’ll probably come in around 50% or more with my Rahmbo exposure this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000) – I may not have big shares of Matsuyama (second overall on my model) this week, simply because it’ll be hard to fit both him and Rahm without going stars-and-scrubs, but he’ll be a staple of my non-Rahm lineups and should fare well based on his elite performance in the focus stat categories (SG: APP, Bob%, Par 5s: 550-600).

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Kevin Na (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,200) – I’m intrigued by the excellent SG: OTT numbers for Munoz, both here at Silverado and over his past 36 rounds, and getting it in good position off the tee should yield some good scoring opportunities for the Colombian pro and PGS DFS standout. He’s played steady golf in his last four tournaments and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Cameron Champ (DK $9,000) – Champ won here in 2019 after missing the cut in 2017 and finishing T25 in 2018. It’s a venue he likes and for that reason we can throw out the poor SG:APP rating (112th in the field over his past 36 rounds) a bit. He ranks third in SG: OTT (and first in the field in that category at this venue) and should have an easy time with these par 5s.

Charley Hoffman (DK 8,800) – Hoffman could be a great play this week, as he’s third overall on my mixed model despite a spotty course history. We’ve seen Hoffman surprise before, and he’s almost never popular even when he’s striking it well. I’d probably limit my ownership in this event to GPPs, but there’s plenty of birdie-making upside with the Hoff.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900) – Grillo makes a lot of sense as a high-upside, somewhat risky PGA DFS play considering how badly his putter can let him down. He’s No. 1 overall in the field in SG:APP over his last 36 rounds and fifth overall in my mixed model. I’ll be overweight with my exposure in GPPs.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,600) – Both Sia and I are fans of how McNealy can make birdies in bunches, and while the ball-striking numbers – both recently and on this golf course – have been lacking, this could be the year he breaks through at Silverado with a Top 15 finish. He’s No. 21 overall in my mixed model, even accounting for the relatively poor course history.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – Ghim debuted here last season with a T14, and he’s certainly got the game to play well at Silverado again. He pounds it off the tee and is eighth overall in my mixed model. While he does have some accuracy issues and is far from the tour’s best putter, he’s one of my favorite PGA DFS GPP plays this week.

Also consider: Harold Varner (Cash), Chez Reavie (Cash), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore (GPP), Adam Hadwin (GPP), Sepp Straka, Brian Stuard, Harry Higgs (GPP)

Value Golfers (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,500) – Kizzire is another hit-or-miss PGA DFS GPP play with a dynamic game and erratic tee ball game. He’s long enough that he can occasionally hit less-than-driver and still be fine, but he’s had some difficulty  at Silverado in his last three tries (all MCs) after finishing second to Brendan Steele in 2016. I’ll have some exposure in large-field GPPs, but I don’t think I can take the plunge in single-entry or cash.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,500) – I’d normally be pretty averse to Ryan Moore because he’s burned me a few times before, but he’s had some solid finishes at Silverado (including a T2 in 2018) and could be a decent low-owned play in GPPs. He’s No. 10 overall in my mixed model and his numbers across this week’s focus stats don’t show any glaring weaknesses.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – Steele won this event two years in a row (2016-17) and will likely be more popular than usual because of it. But he’s a consistent player who hits it straight off the tee, thrives in the California venues and doesn’t miss cuts here (seven in a row).

Adam Schenk (DK $7,300) – This is where things start to get a little bit risky, so I’d steer clear of Schenk and the next few guys in cash games. He’s another player that Sia and I both like this week, and he ranks 16th on my model behind some decent putting and birdie numbers. Hitting good drives at this venue has historically ben a struggle, but his SG:OTT numbers have been better lately and he’s got a T14 to his credit here in 2018.

Hank Lebioda (DK $7,100) – Hammerin’ Hank comes in at No. 23 in my model and is a huge risk since he’s missed the cut twice in three attempts at Silverado. But I’m willing to give him a shot in a few GPPs based on his ability to make birdies and the T44 he notched here in 2019.

Luke List (DK $7,100) – Sia wrote up newcomer Chad Ramey (and not Lebioda or List – two guys he normally loves), so I’ll take up the mantle and tout them. List can really stink it up with his putter, but he’s No. 11 on my model this week and seems to have a decent handle on this venue, with a T4 in 2018 and two other Top 40s in previous appearances. His ball-striking and Par 5 dominance are quite attractive in this field.

Chesson Hadley (DK $7,000) – He can’t be the Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) again because he’s not under $7K, but he’s exactly the type of golfer we target in GPPs for his upside when he’s hitting it good off the tee, a huge advantage on this course, where he’s played very well (T14, T23, T87, T3 in his last four tries at Silverado).

Cameron Percy (DK $6,800) – Percy has a T23 and T7 in his last two starts in Napa and just eats up the par 5s here. He’s going to be a huge piece of my stars-and-scrubs builds and could end up being my BBB if he lands under 5% ownership.

More value golfers to consider: Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox (GPP), Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Sam Ryder, Kyle Stanley, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,500) – Hubbard is No. 25 in my model and probably the best PGA DFS golfer you can roster at $6,500 or under this week based on his BoB% and putting numbers, when combined with  relatively decent ball-striking. His SG: OTT numbers are his biggest weakness, but at this price there’s always a weakness.

Danny Lee (DK $6,400) – I don’t have a ton of interest in the punts this week, but Lee is worth a look in large-field GPPS and in your “scrubs” pieces based on decent overall numbers and some excellent finishes here (T10 in 2018). Don’t go overboard with your exposure to this risky but dynamic player.

Paul Barjon (DK $6,200) – Barjon is popping at No. 22 in my mixed model – the only golfer under $6,500 in my top 25. The biggest knock is his lack of PGA Tour experience and course history at this venue, where he’s making his debut. But I like PGA DFS guys who hit it solid off the tee and have putters that come alive and make birdies.

Additional GPP punts: Michael Gligic, Dylan Wu, Beau Hossler, Curtis Thompson

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PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such a watered-down field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Only third time playing this PGA event, so still not much course history
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)
    • 7,431 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
    • Bentgrass Greens
    • Course features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps
    • Past performance here indicates some correlation with Rocket Mortgage performance
    • Ball-striker’s course
    • 2020 Defending champ: Michael Thompson at -19 (Matthew Wolff won in 2019 at -21)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600),

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – If DJ’s game is on, he could walk away with this tournament, as it’s a gettable track that will yield tons of birdies and eagles. He also prefers putting on Bentgrass, so there’s that. If we can find enough value in the $7K range this week – and I think we can – we shouldn’t shy away from him in single-entry GPPs.

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – Finau is expensive this week, but he belongs in this elite company as he and the guys north of $10K are head-and-shoulders ahead of the field in terms of talent. He’s a staple of my builds and I’ll be coming in around double the projected field ownership.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – This is where the drop-off starts in terms of risk, and Garcia’s is slightly mitigated by the fact that putter isn’t the most important club in the bag this week. I like him a tad better on Bermuda, but Garcia should be able to contend for a win in this watered-down field.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – He’s GPP only, but as Joel points out in the Breakdown, we need to be ready to pivot in large-field GPP if ownership gets out of control. There’s some chatter that his ball-striking is really coming into form and that’s a huge plus heading into a tournament where he’s already won.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Cameron Tringale

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,300) – Grillo sticks out as a high-upside, medium-risk play with solid form coming in. In his Initial Picks article, Sia points out that Grillo was a T3 here last year, and that’s exactly why I’m drawn to the Argentinian despite the increase in salary from what we’re used to for Emiliano.

Cameron Davis (DK $9,200) – He won the Rocket Mortgage at the start of the month, and the correlation makes me interested in him in GPPs. Davis also finished T12 here last year, so there’s a lot to like about the strides he’s made in 2021, even if he’s not the most consistent player above $9K.

Keegan Bradley (DK $8,800) – Bradley struggles with the outer, but he’s one of the best ball strikers around and this could be a great spot for a bounce back. I’d feel more safe about cash game use if his price was a little lower, but he might make my single-entry team for his upside in this field.

Stewart Cink (DK $8,700) – Cink is playing some of the best golf of his career and is woefully underpriced given the strength of this field. Safe for cash, but he could get popular if you’re targeting him for GPPs.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,400) – One of our favorite birdie-fest golfers, McNealy is a guy who I’ll be overweight on regardless of his final ownership projections. This is his first run at the TPC Twin Cities, but I’m buying.

Luke List (DK $8,100) – List has struck the ball well in 2021 and posted consecutive top five finishes once his newborn son was deemed healthy. The veteran also led the field last week in SG: T2G and ranks No. 22 on tour in that metric. You can do a lot worse in PGA DFS than picking this guy.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – One of these weeks, the talented Ghim is going to put together four good rounds and win a PGA Tour event. He’s made three straight cuts after an MC at the memorial but was T14 the week before at the Charles Schwab. Ghim isn’t safe, but he could be worth the risk.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,900) – This is exactly the kind of PGA DFS tournament where you wonder why you didn’t go back to Kirk, who finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage before last week’s MC at the Open Championship. A much-improved golfer in 2021, I’m banking on a better finish than the T41 he posted at the 3M last year.

Richy Werenski (DK $7,600) – A high-risk GPP option I’ll be using in about 2-3 out of 20 lineups, Werenski can get on a roll fast and plant himself on the leaderboard with the best of the mid-range golfers. He’s worth another look at this event, where he finished T3 last year.

Also consider: Robert MacIntyre, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Herbert, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Gary Woodland, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Mito Pereira

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,500) – Vegas checks a few important boxes this week, and his weaknesses are mitigated by the layout and putting surfaces. I like Vegas on soft courses you can attack (T11 at the John Deere), and this is certainly one of those.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,400) – Van Rooyen was actually $8,800 in this event last year, way more expensive than both Grillo and Tringale, who were both in the low-to-mid-$7K range and are now over $9K. Sure, it’s been a wild year, but EVR still has some upside, especially with SG: Putting (where he ranks No. 105 on Tour) not as important here.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,300) – The last birdie-fest course he played was at the AT&T Byron Nelson, when he finished T17 at -16. I really like his chances at a top 20 here and his ownership should stay relatively low.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,300) –Like Vegas, Stanley makes sense for courses you can go after and post lots of birdies, and I’m intrigued by the still-depressed price despite seven straight made cuts. The upside is lacking a bit, but he seems fine for a last piece in more balanced builds where we want to stay away from the sub-$7K golfers.

Bo Hoag (DK $7,000) – The pickings get slim once we get down to $7K, but I’ve got plenty of interest in Hoag this week. He posted a T12 here last year and is coming in after a T11 at the Barbasol and three straight made cuts (T47 at the John Deere, T33 at the Rocket Mortgage).

Kevin Tway (DK $6,600) – The (Friday) birthday narrative has been discussed ad nauseum on the WinDaily writers text message thread, and again in the Breakdown. This is one of the only venues where Tway plays well, so he’s worth considering at this price.

More value golfers for GPPs: Troy Merritt, Michael Thompson, Adam Schenk, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Pat Perez, Sepp Straka, Tom Lewis (GPP), Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Satoshi Kodaira (DK $6,500) – Kodaira hurt a lot of folks at high ownership when he was the DFS darling bargain play a couple weeks ago, but he played well at the Barbasol last week (T20). He also made the cut here in 2019 and should do so again. The upside is there at this price point.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – BB was my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) at the John Deere, and he ruined a great start (67 in round 1) with a 72 on Friday that knocked him out of the weekend. We’ll go back to the well this week, as I think he should fare well here, where he’s made the cut in both tries.

Robbie Shelton (DK $6,500) – He’s been bad this July, with three straight MCs, but I like his bounce-back chances on a course where he’s had success before (T3 last year). Again – he’s a GPP-only play and I might use him in up to 3/20 lineups.

Additional punts: Josh Teator, Michael Gligic, Fabian Gomez, Michael Gellerman

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PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The Win Daily team has content galore this week, including this edition of PGA DFS picks to help you dominate your contests at the Rocket Mortgage Classic!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, watered-down field of 150+ golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
  • The course: Detroit Golf Club (Detroit, MI) – Donald Ross design
    • 7,370 yards, Par 72 – Detroit
    • Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Four par 5s will give us lots of scoring, and it should be another birdie-fest
    • Approaches will be shorter; 175-225 long iron shots shouldn’t be tested too much
    • Bombers (on a driver-heavy course) and putters (who handle Poa) fare well here
    • Players successful on Ross designs (Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake and Sedgefield) are worth a look this week
  • Thursday PM/Friday AM could have slight weather/conditions advantage
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %. SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), Performance on Donald Ross courses

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,400) – He’s the defending champion, largely on the performance of his putter, so we must consider Bryson this week, especially in cash games. And despite some poor course management choices and subsequent meltdowns, he’s still made 10 straight cut and should be in the conversation come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Given the fact that he’s missed two cuts in his last five tourneys, we can’t say Simpson’s form is great, but he does have a couple Top 15s in there (T12 at the Masters and T9 at the RBC Heritage). Strangely enough, three of the last four appearances he’s made have been at majors. That tells me he likes playing here, and his T8 last year in Detroit piques my interest even more.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Willie Z used to make a lot of hay on courses like this on the Korn Ferry Tour, even if his PGA identity has been more of a “tough course” grinder. He’s not cheap this week, but he’s clearly among the top five in the talent category that’s heading to Detroit. I’m most worried about his putting, so I’ll limit my ownership to GPPs.

Jason Kokrak (DK $9,500) – Kokrak should be popular even at this elevated price, but his game should translate well to this course, where he finished T29 in 2019 before his career added the maiden victory and follow-up win at the 2021 Charles Schwab, played at Colonial. This venue comps well to that course, he’s number one on Sia’s model, and I’ll be overweight on the field regardless of ownership.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – He’s off the DFS radar, for the most part, and that’s when I like to give him a shot in GPPs. But the price is entirely too much for cash game builds and he may fare well as a sneaky Top 10 bet.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Again – I can’t trust Wolff in cash games and will steer clear in single-entry, but the leverage and upside in large field GPPs should warrant some exposure to this dynamic but risky play. Joel likes him in GPPs and that’s enough for me.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500) – Kisner finished third last year and his coming off a T5 at the Travelers, an event where he wasn’t much part of the DFS conversation in the leadup. Aside from that, he hasn’t been very successful in 2021, though the courses have played tough and he prefers venues like this where he can make some birdies.

Max Homa (DK $8,400) – Homa – who is a combined +28 in his last four missed cuts – is not getting the love he deserves this week because of the form, even if he’s been a popular topic in the WinDaily golf writers’ message thread. I know that Isaiah is intrigued by Homa this week and I’m on board too.

Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – I’m interested in seeing what Higgo can do at a birdie fest considering he shot 66-63-64-64 in his win at the Canary Islands Championship in May on the EURO tour. Higgo is long, he’s a good putter, and he’s a bargain at this price – so he really stood out to me in this range – just like he did for Sia in his Initial Picks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,900) – Redman has a T21 here in 2020 and notched a solo second in 2019, so he’s clearly a course horse. Normally considered a volatile performer and high-risk/big-reward type of play, Redman has made five straight cuts and could be trending up toward another Top 10.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,700) – I love McNealy and his ability to make birdies in bunches, and his T8 last season in Detroit is encouraging for another Top 20 finish. He finished T4 at the last birdie-forward event (RBC Heritage), and when he goes low, he goes really low. A fine play in all formats and one of favorites for “low round” bets.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – I missed out on Straka and his T10 last week and will probably never recover from that – it’s like how I’ll feel if I fade Matthew Fitzpatrick the week of his first PGA Tour win. I’ll have some minimal shares just so I don’t have that feeling again.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim (GPP), Lucas Glover (GPP), Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, Lanto Griffin

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin is solid T2G, and while I have a hard time seeing him post crazy low scores and reaching the -20 that might be necessary to win, he’s got the chops to finish in the Top 20.

Mark Hubbard (DK $7,300) – Don’t look now, but Hubbard has made five straight cuts and is playing really good golf, his T13 last week being his best finish since his T12 at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s still a little risky for cash games, but he’s fine for GPPs and could be a bargain single-entry if you’re willing to assume a little extra risk.

Brian Stuard (DK $7,000) – Stuard is a couple years removed form his T5 finish here in what was a very weak field, but he notched a T30 in 2020 in Detroit as well and is among the best bargains in this $7K range for his brilliant putting and ability to make birdies in bunches.

Nate Lashley (DK $6,900) – Lashley is a former Rocket Mortgage champion (he won in 2019) but the form is somewhat concerning. I’ll limit my exposure to low-cost, large-field GPPs. He’s easy to root for and should make the cut this week.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – If Rodgers could get in the habit of putting together four rounds of his A game, he’d be one of the best golfers on tour, but his one-day brilliance is usually bracketed by a stinker or two. He’s in the conversation for first-day leader, but I’ll steer clear in most formats.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – Norlander has made three cuts in his last five tournaments, which for him is a hot streak. I’m banking on another solid finish this week and he makes sense for the last piece in some GPP lineups.

More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power, Pat Perez (GPP), Danny Willett, Tom Lewis, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Richy Werenski, Cameron Champ (GPP), Danny Lee (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Schenk (DK $6,500) – I won’t be dabbling too much in the $6,500 and under range this week, but Schenk checks a few boxes and could spike a Top 35 finish if he manages to make the cut – which he’s done in seven of his last 10 events.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,200) – Ventura is a hard nut to crack, because the ball-striking falls well behind the putter and there’s usually something in the course history I like (T21 here in 2020). This course sets up much better for him, and if the putter does its thing he could finally notch a Top 25, which he hasn’t done in a normal PGA tour event sine his T6 at Sanderson Farms.

Additional GPP punts: Jimmy Walker, J.J. Spaun, Ted Potter, Austin Cook

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PGA DFS Picks: 2021 Travelers Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re giving you some top PGA DFS picks and looking for green screens at the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, deep field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Dustin Johnson (19 over Kevin Streelman’s -18)
  • The course: TPC River Highlands (Cromwell, CT)
    • 6,841 yards, Par 70 – Old 1928 design reworked by Pete Dye in 1982
    • Varied types of holes on a short course that can produce low scoring (site of Jim Furyk’s 58 in 2016)
    • Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Just two par 5s, but one is short and yields lots of birdies and eagles; and two driveable par 4s around 300 yards
    • Experience with Pete Dye layouts can help, and there’s plenty of course history at TPC River Highlands
    • Distance not an issue here as scoring clubs more important
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Par 4s: 400-450, Opportunities Gained, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass and Poa), SG: Around the Green, Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – DJ’s game doesn’t look too bad heading into the Travelers, where he’s the defending champ and one of the betting favorites at 12-1. Last year’s title was helped tremendously by a second round 64 and a scorching-hot 61 on Saturday, but it took him a bit to warm up and he closed the deal with a solid 67 on Sunday. That’s just how he could win again this year – with his talent shining through in a couple of low rounds and solid ball-striking carrying him through when his mojo ain’t working.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – His projected ownership will probably be the highest in this tier for the consistency he’s shown in PGA DFS events, excluding the poor stretch of MCs from the Players to the Wells Fargo during the spring. Believe it or not, Cantlay is actually the current FedExCup points leader with three top 15s at the Travelers since 2018. I won’t have as many shares as I will of DJ, but I feel like some exposure is warranted.

Paul Casey (DK $9,900) – Casey is my favorite play under $10K and has a great course history at TPC River Highlands, where he’s 6-for-6 with four top five finishes. He also finished among the top 10 in his last three starts (EURO and PGA combined) and is coming off a very respectable T7 at the U.S. Open. Sia is on board and so is Stix, so I’m buying some Casey this week and hoping for another Top 10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – Scheffler missed the cut in his Travelers debut last year, but he was amid a bad stretch of golf during the beginning of the spectator-free COVID tournaments. An opening round 70 sealed his fate, but he’s playing solid golf right now (T7 at the U.S. Open) and checks all the boxes this week.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $9,400) – He’s a solid play in all formats, and he’s probably worth using in single-entry builds for his galling consistency. Nick talked a little bit in The Breakdown about how he’s a near-lock for the Top 40 every week and we just saw him play some marvelous golf at the U.S. Open. “Streels” is one of those guys who just seems to show up every week.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200) – The jury is still out on when we’ll see Finau get his next win, but the price seems fair this week for a guy who just needs the putter to show up to realize his Top 10 upside. He’s missed his last two cuts here but had a T25 and T17 in 2016 and 2017. I’d steer clear in cash games, but he’s worth of consideration for GPPs.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – He’s very popular this week and seems to be everywhere in the “experts” picks on plenty of sites, but he’s not nearly as safe a play as that would dictate. It’s been a while since I’ve seen him play his true “A” game, and the birdie runs are coming less frequently than a few years ago, when he won this tournament in 2018. I’ll have minimal exposure, and he’s not in my player pool for single-entry or cash games.

Brian Harman (DK $8,800) – Harman typically plays about a half-stroke better on Dye courses, and he’s an accurate driver who just closed out a solid week with a one-over 72 on Sunday at the U.S. Open, finishing T19. He’s got a couple of Top 10 finishes at the Travelers in his last three tries (MC in the tumultuous 2020) and has now placed among the top 20 in seven of eight starts going back to his T3 at the Players.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,500) –Another “Dye desirable,” Kim has made three of his last four cuts at the Travelers with a T11 in 2020 and solid finishes in 2016 and 2018. His form isn’t bad either, with a T9 at the Memorial and T40 last week at a grueling U.S. Open on a course that didn’t; necessarily fit his strengths. He’s a fine GPP play this week.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,900) – Bradley likes Pete Dye courses and this is the first of two “home games” for the underpriced golfer, who has had a really strong 2021. He finished T2 in 2019 and makes sense for all kinds of builds this week.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $7,700) – Molinari is rounding into form and while he doesn’t play a lot of events, he always has a shot at winning because he can get ridiculously hot with the putter. I think the T13 finish at the U.S. Open should give him the confidence necessary to capitalize on his opportunities this week and make a splash on the weekend.

Doc Redman (DK $7,600) – After a stretch of spotty play earlier this season, Redman has turned in some solid performances in recent weeks, posting a T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a T2 at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. He also debuted here last season with a T11 and he’s usually a decent leverage play that’s a little off-the-radar.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP), Max Homa (GPP), Jason Day (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – Griffin’s ball-striking was good at the U.S. Open and while he didn’t miss the cut, I was hoping for a better finish than T35. There’s a bunch of high-upside/high-risk golfers in this price range, and Lanto fits the bill for GPPs and as a 100-1 longshot to win.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – I’m a huge Fowler fan and the disappointment of missing the U.S. Open this year has to be weighing on the veteran golfer. Rickie’s game has had its ups and downs but has shown improvement over his last two events. There’s not much recent history at the Travelers to go form, but he had a T13 in 2014, closing with a 64 on Sunday. A return to New England and a course that fits his game could be just what he needs as he and Allison Stokke await the birth of their first child.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $7,100) – He might get chalky after three days of brilliance at the U.S. Open (but not a fourth), because the price is very nice. The Canadian is 4-for-4 at the Travelers with an impressive scoring average (68.19) and a T3 last year. He’s in play for all formats.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100) – If you need a pivot from Hughes with just as much upside but a lot more risk, look no further than Ortiz. He’s missed the cut here in his last two Travelers appearances but finished T17 in 2016 and has the chops to post some low scores here.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The $7K range is loaded with players who we’d like to play when they’re in good form, and Reavie makes for a wonderful GPP play this week as he’s coming off a T14 at the Palmetto and T40 at the U.S. Open. Reavie doesn’t typically play well on Dye courses, but we an make an exception this week because it’s a good spot.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,000) – Stanley isn’t a very good putter, but his iron play is consistently strong and he’s once again underpriced for what he offers in PGA DFS. His course history is good and he’s a real bargain this week given his Top 20 upside.

Adam Long (DK $6,800) – Long has finished T20-T26 in his last two tournaments and is a solid ball-striker who’s accurate off the tee – an important factor in creating opportunities here. If he can keep form having the one blowup round that usually mars his chances, he’ll be in good shape for the weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Na (GPP), Aaron Wise, Brendan Steele (GPP), Stewart Cink, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Will Gordon (GPP), Ryan Moore (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Austin Eckroat (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – A lot of folks will look to Satoshi Kodaira and the very consistent Vincent Whaley, but I like Stuard’s chances of rebounding after missed cuts at the Palmetto and U.S. Open. He has an extensive course history with spotty results, but something clicked last year en route to a T20, a finish I think he could duplicate here in 2021.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – He’s a total longshot (and hasn’t posted a Top 10 since he won the RSM in 2019), but he’s accurate off the tee and has made three straight cuts at this event. If you need a final piece and only have $6,300 to spend, he’s worth throwing in one or two out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Satoshi Kodaira, Tom Lewis, Vincent Whaley

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PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
  • 2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
  • The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
    • > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
    • Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
    • Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
    • Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
    • Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
  • Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
  • Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

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PGA DFS Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 156 golfers STACKED with talent
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020
  • 2019 champion: Max Homa (-15 over Joel Dahmen at -12)
  • The course: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, NC)
    • Par 71: 7,521+ yards – the longest Par 71 on the PGA Tour
    • Bermuda greens (Champion G12 Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed)
    • Beast of a long, tough track with final three holes dubbed “The Green Mile”
    • Bomb-and-gouge more in play this week, as longer hitters and good drivers seem to prevail
  • Rain in forecast before tourney days but mostly sunny skies during competition
  • Late Friday 10 mph gusts expected, which is common – but wind only getting to 13-15 on the Sunday forecast – so keep early Friday and Sunday in mind for showdowns
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity 175-200 & 200+, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!

Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.

Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.

Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.

Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.

Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.

Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh

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PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Decent top-end in a full field of 156 golfers, but not an elite group
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19
  • 2019 (and 2018) champion: Paul Casey (-8 in ’19; -10 in ’18)
  • The course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbour, FL)
    • Par 71: 7,340 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Tough track that played easier before 2015 renovations and a 2007 date change
    • Five par 3s, four par 5s
    • Tight fairways, water in play on 11 of 18 holes
    • Solid tee-to-green golf a must
    • AVOID THE SNAKE PIT (Holes 16-18 can bit you… and poison a victory with a multi-stroke swing come Sunday)
  • Some Friday afternoon wind will bump up (10-14 MPH) but weather looks great in the low 80s with no rain forecasted
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: T2G, Par 3s Gained: 200-225, SG: Short Game, Par 4s Gained: 400-450, Good Drives Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.

Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.

Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)

Mid-Range Golfers (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.

Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.

Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.

Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.

Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)

Value Plays (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.

Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.

Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.

Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.

More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.

Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.

Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee

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PGA DFS Picks: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Solid field of 136 golfers missing only a few big names
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Last year’s champion: Webb Simpson
  • The course: Harbour Town Golf Links (Pete Dye design; Hilton Head Island, SC)
    • Par 71: 7,121 yards
    • TifEagle Bermuda greens
    • Driving it great not important – because some spots in rough provide fine scoring opportunities
    • Small greens that nobody hits with regularity makes approach and putting key stats
    • Coastal breezes can affect play and reach gale force
    • Last year’s event had almost no wind, so scores were much lower than usual
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Around the Green, Fairways Gained, Good Drives Gained, Proximity (150-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,600) – DJ is a South Carolina-born golfer who went to college in Myrtle Beach (Coastal Carolina), but this isn’t his type of golf course. Still – even though he’s fared poorly here in the past and doesn’t look too appealing on my model (No. 16), he can’t be completely ignored. The missed cut at the Masters and his relatively poor course history should keep him from higher ownership, so I might take a shot in some GPPs.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Simpson is the defending champion at Harbour Town and the chalkiest golfer on the board this week, but I don’t think I can endorse a full fade because he’s just so good on the greens – and his course history is quite impressive (no worse than T16 in his last four appearances here). He was T12 at the Masters last week and is a solid bet for a top 10 at the RBC – he just might not be necessary to roster in GPPs if he doesn’t crack the Top 5.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – His approach play is second-to-none on tour, he managed to keep it together for a T18 at Augusta last week, and he most recently won in February at the WGC-Workday. Morikawa is projected to be the third-highest owned golfer this week and while there is some merit to a fade considering his T64 finish here during a stretch of poor play in 2020, he’s No. 7 overall on my model and a tough player to get away from in PGS DFS when you consider the metric data.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger is No. 2 overall on my model and his ownership should come in well under Simpson’s – making him a fine single-entry and large-field GPP alterative. He’s only played here twice, but finished T33 in 2019 and T3 in 2020 – so it’s clear he likes the venue and the course layout. Berger doesn’t handle al the Pete Dye courses as well as he does this one, but I’m seriously considering him to be the “spend up” golfer in my core of single-entry builds.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Cameron Smith (GPP), Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Paul Casey (DK $9,200) – His last performance of note at the RBC Heritage was way back in 2014, when he finished T18, and since then he’s had a couple of missed cuts (2016 & 2018). But my mixed model (fourth overall) and the course layout are pointing in his direction this week, especially considering his SG:APP numbers in recent play. Course history hounds might stay away, but there’s a chance he garners ownership because of name recognition and recency bias.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,100) – The guy calls this his “favorite place in the world” and he really wants this to be the event where he gets his first win – if not at a major. I really like Fitzpatrick’s chances at bouncing back from his T34 at the Masters with another top 10 finish this week, as he’s shown improvement at this venue over the past few years and has two Top 15s in his last three tries here. He’s a great putter and despite some occasionally shaky approach play from 175-200, ranks 17th in my model, just behind DJ. I won’t be all-in on ownership, but I’ll be slightly ahead of the field, probably around 20-25%.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900) – Ancer ranks No. 6 overall on my model this week and finished solo second here in 2020, just one stroke behind Simpson. Both will be chalky, but he comes at a huge discount from the defending champion and offers almost as much upside with his solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches. If there’s an area where he can’t match Webb, it’s on the greens.

Shane Lowry (DK $8,500) – The Irishman is Stick’s pick to win the event and I couldn’t have been more elated when he announced that during the breakdown video – especially after he lauded Hideki Matsuyama last week before the Japanese sensation won the Masters. Lowry is No. 21 overall on my model, has been striking the ball very well lately, and has a T3 here in 2019. His ownership isn’t expected to surpass 10%, and there’s plenty of upside here compared to most of the other players in the mid range.

Harris English (DK $8,400) – English had a rough patch of two MCs at the Farmers and Waste Management, and a final round 80 at the WGC-Workday put him near the caboose of the no-cut event in solo 66th place. But before that he had some solid finishes, and since the WGC event he’s finished T26 (API at Bay Hill) and T21 (Masters). This is a guy you want to jump on as he starts rounding into form.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,900) – I loved him last week at the Masters and he rewarded me with a T12 – a solid finish for his price and ownership level. My concern this week is that he might get a little too popular on the heels of that performance, as he’s still priced under $8K and his name is fresh in the minds of the leaderboard watchers. But if we’re choosing between him and Charley Hoffman (also just under $8K and projected for a similar ownership percentage), I’ll take Si Woo all day.

Russell Henley (DK $7,900) – The breakdown boys danced around the topic of Henley, but I’ll take my stand regardless of his spotty course history (his last two tries here are MCs), largely because he fares extremely well in my mixed model (third overall). Another knock on Henley from a DFS perspective is an inflated ownership projection that currently puts him as the ninth most popular play in the field.

Also consider: Corey Conners (Cash), Tommy Fleetwood (GPP), Brian Harman, Kevin Na (GPP), Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Brandon Grace, Ian Poulter

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Chris Kirk (DK $7,500) – We have a general consensus among the WinDaily writers that Kirk looks like a fine play for most formats this week in DFS, though his ownership seems to be creeping up as folks ogle his string of made cuts since the Waste Management and his three Top 10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He’s okay for single-entry and cash games and I’ll have shares right around 10-15% in my GPP builds.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – Munoz is a solid shotmaker and he’s coming off a somewhat disappointing week at Augusta, where he placed T40 after a T9 finish at the Valero Open. I’d probably steer clear in cash games, but he’s fine for large-field GPPs and should stay below the 5% ownership threshold. I’ll be giving him a look, even if I prefer the discount offered by the next couple of guys on this list.

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,300) – If course history matters here (and it does), then we have to consider Streelman, who has a couple of top ten finishes in his last three appearances on Hilton Head Island. He’s a great value for all formats and Sia even staked his claim that Streelman will be the first round leader at long odds (66-1). The tour veteran is 20th overall in my model and he’ll be a staple of my GPP lineups.

Michael Thompson (DK $7,200) – Thompson isn’t nearly as safe as Streelman in this range, but he’s tenth overall in my model and does offer upside – despite a relatively high projected ownership for a guy with his brand of spotty play. His popularity can be explained by three straight made cuts (including a T34 at the Masters last week) as well as a sparkling course history that includes top ten finishes in his last two appearances.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,100) – He’s firmly in play as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play, and both Joel and Nick like him this week too – probably because he’s finished T8 and T6 in his last two runs here. I never like going too hard on Poston, but he’s definitely in play this qweek.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – He’s got the “site of his marriage proposal” narrative going this week, and he’s No. 11 overall in my model. He’s a great play in all formats and on my short list for single-entry GPP consideration. He may not have the upside of Poston or Thompson, but a breakthrough is still very possible.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – The breakdown touched on how NeSmith might be the better play in cash games, but Ghim could be a fine PGA DFS play in this range for large-field GPPs. The youngster is a first-timer at the RBC Heritage, but he’s made 12 of his last 16 cuts and hits awesome approach shots.

More value golfers to consider: Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Davis (GPP), Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Harold Varner III, Ryan Moore (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Russell Knox (GPP), Kyle Stanley (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,500) – I had a very productive PGA DFS run using Kizzire in GPPs in the 2020-21 transition in December-January, and he’s been okay if nor great since, with a T9 at the Valero ranking as his best finish since his T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s a longer hitter sprays it around a bit off the tee and doesn’t typically light the world on fire on shorter courses, but Kizzire is a verified putting demon who can get hot with the flat stick and make a boatload of birdies.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – I usually finish up my article as I’m listening to the breakdown, and I’m very glad that Sia mentioned him as a possibly mispriced golfer in the value/punt range. Hoge is a solid T2G golfer who hits good approaches 175-200 (No. 11 in the field), and he’s a decent putter with the ability to finish in the Top 10. I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field GPPs.

Scott Piercy (DK $6,300) – Piercy gets inclusion here based on his T3 finish here in 2019 and T16 in 2018, but his form in 2021 has not been great. Perhaps something clicks this week at the site of a venue where he’s had success and he can revisit some of the Top 20 form he flashed in October-November of 2020. He’s a large-field GPP play (maybe one or two lineups out of 20) with some Top 20 upside this week, but don’t go overboard.

Additional GPP punts: Tom Lewis, Jason Dufner, Chesson Hadley, Danny Lee, Bo Hoag, Tyler Duncan

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PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • 2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
  • The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
    • Par 72 (7,466 yards)
    • Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
    • Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
    • Pressure golf at its most demanding
    • Bermuda greens and fairways
  • Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele  (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open at Hawaii

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open at Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker (just five of the OWGR Top 20) full field of 140+ golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Cameron Smith (-11 in playoff over Brendan Steele)
  • The course: Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI
    • Par 70 (7,044 yards)
    • Short, traditional course with narrow fairways
    • Scoring varies based on weather, but lots of chances to go low
    • Slower but tricky Bermuda greens
    • Weather factor should be moderate this week (windiest on Thursday)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Fairways Gained, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100) – Webb is top-dog emcee this week and the only player above $11K on DraftKings, but this course, with its tighter fairways and silly little greens, is certainly a prime spot for him. He narrowly missed out on the aforementioned playoff between Cameron Smith and Brendan Steele and finished solo third, and this year he’s the co-favorite to win at 14-1 and the best cash game option out there.

Harris English (DK $10,800) – English isn’t on my cash game radar this week, but he’s coming off his first win since 2013 (the third of his 10-year career) among a tough field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. You can’t argue with the form, and while he hasn’t played well at Waialae before, he’s shown improvement at the venue, ranks second in my overall model, and he makes for an excellent GPP play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,600) – As a rookie, Morikawa notched a T21 last year among stellar company, and his ball-striking and approach game is tailor-made for this golf course. His putting is probably the biggest concern, though his stats on Bermuda seem to be better than other surfaces. I’ll have shares in the 15-20% range – right around the rest of the DFS tournament field.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger seems to be everybody’s “sneaky” play in the top tier this week, which continues to push his projected ownership well above 20% and into the chalky zone in GPPs. I’m comfortable using him because of his ball-striking prowess and how well he’s played in 2020-21, but he’s far from a lock button to me – Berger has  no top 10s in this tournament.

Cameron Smith (DK $9,600) – Usually I don’t write up this many golfers in the top tier, but Smith is the defending champion and really seems to play well here, with three straight top 25s at Waialae (including his win). With so many value options in my player pool under $7,500, there’s a path to rostering Smith in GPPs with one or two other big-name players.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,200) – There’s plenty to like about Palmer’s chances in 2021 at Waialae, especially with his recent form and last year’s T4 at this event. He makes sense for both cash games and GPPs, and it’ll be great if his ownership stays under 20%.

Russell Henley (DK $8,700) – Henley’s course history is awful here, but he’s fourth overall in my model and is the best in the field in SG:APP – the top focus stat this week. I’m not overly interested in GPPs if he gets above 18% or so, especially since his success usually comes down to his putting performance.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,800) – I’ll be mixing in Kisner at about a 15-20% rate in GPPs and hoping he can get hot with the putter – as he usually fares well on Bermuda. There’s really nothing to dislike about Kisner, who’s a solid value in the mid-tier.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – A short course with small greens? Sign me up for a ZJ. I don’t care what he costs because if I have to ask, I can’t afford him. Seriously – Johnson has a couple of Top 10s here and while he’s not exciting, he had a T6 in November at the RSM. A solid cash game target.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,100) – He’s a first timer here, but we’ve seen other Sony Open virgins notch Top 10s because of their ball-striking and approach game – so why not the South African? Van Rooyen is 12th in my model and a solid GPP play who I’ll be overweight on compared to the field.

Brian Harman (DK $7,800) – Harman has some excellent results at this venue, including a T4 during the 2017-18 season, and he’s a solid cutmaker who my model loves this week (No. 10 overall). He’s in my player pool and a good play in all formats.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – I love mixing in Keegan into GPPs on courses that require a solid approach game, and while he’s not the best putter in the world, the quirky veteran has shown steady improvement at the Sony Open and seems to be figuring out the greens a little more each year.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Brendan Todd (GPP), Charles Howell (Cash), Marc Leishman, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Tom Hoge (DK $7,300) – I’m not sure when the price on Hoge will come up, but I’m loving the fact that he’s so cheap with his soaring upside on a course like this. He’s only No. 60 in my model, but that’s because of his performance around the greens – which he’s fared well on before (third place finish in 2017 and a T12 last year).

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – If you want a guy with similar upside to Hoge and lower ownership, look no further than Hahn. I may even build a few GPPs starting with both these players.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,200) – Like Zach Johnson, Furyk plays his best on shorter courses with tricky greens, and I’m considering going up to about 40% ownership on this old codger in MMEs. He’s ninth on my model and he won here way back in 1996 – about year before Collin Morikawa was born.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200) – You may have noticed a theme here, as Stanley is another solid ball striker who putts badly but has played well at Waialae in the past (T10 three years ago and 4/5 since 2015). I’d steer clear in cash games but will mix him into GPPs.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Norlander is popping on my model (eighth overall) and his T9 here last season proves there’s a good reason to include him in your builds. The price is simply way too low this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – I know that Ghim has some issues putting together four good rounds, and his debut here in 2020 was less than spectacular (MC), but if he can best his demons on the short grass, he’ll be a solid value under $7K.

More value golfers to consider: Carlos Ortiz, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Mark Hubbard, Vaughn Taylor

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – Course history and metrics make Armour the best punt play at or under the arbitrary $6,500 price point. He’s missed three straight cuts but a T8 at the Bermuda Championship in October mean I’ll have a few shares in large-field GPPs.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200) – He’s old and straight off the tee, and he’s notched two Top 15s here in his last five tries (two MCs). I’m comfortable using him at up to 10% in large-field GPP entries where I’m squeezing in stars and scrubs.

Additional punt options: Roger Sloan, Sung Kang, Ted Potter, Chase Seifert

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