The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 4 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Herbert (FD $15,500, DK $16,800)
Pivot: Derek Carr (FD $16,000, DK $16,200)
Contrarian #1: Austin Ekeler (FD $13,500, DK $14,400)
Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $12,500, DK $13,200)
Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)
Just like last Monday night, FanDuel and DraftKings actually have the QBs flip-flopped for the top-priced player. And we don’t have too many discounts available, making this a very difficult week to roster 4-5 of the best impact players. For this reason, we’ll have to consider more than just the above (obvious) options for captain, and I’m starting off that list of bargain option candidates with Bryan Edwards. We’ve seen the physical second-year receiver take over a drive like he did in the waning minutes of Week 1 against Baltimore, and the only thing keeping him exploding into the 15-20 point range has been the lack of a TD reception.
Raiders notes: Since the Cowboys ran for 198 yards against the Chargers in Week 2, we have to consider using someone among the Josh Jacobs/Kenyan Drake/Peyton Barber mess, and while the price on Barber is ridiculous, he’ll be in play if Jacobs has to sit this one out. If Jacobs is good to go after enduring the rigors of a pre-game gauntlet of drills, he’s a great FLEX play at just $7,600 with 20-point upside. Drake becomes the more attractive back if we assume a negative game script, but if we think the Raiders hang with the Chargers (who are 3.5 point favorites at home), they may end up sprinkling in more standard running plays. TE Darren Waller is my favorite receiving option for the Raiders, but the aforementioned Edwards, Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow are all in play. Derek Carr may have the toughest test of his season so far given the tough matchup against Joey Bosa, who has sacked Carr more than any other QB in the league.
Chargers notes: I could see Justin Herbert scoring with his legs this week, as he’s the best rushing option for the Chargers after the electric Austin Ekeler. If there’s a way to get Herbert, Ekeler and Keenan Allen in my lineup I would love to, but that’s almost impossible unless we sacrifice Waller on the Raiders side. It feels like a good week to fade Mike Williams at his elevated price, but you’ll do that at your own risk. Williams has been playing a “power-forward” type WR-TE hybrid role with more red zone opportunities and targets against smaller DBs. The Raiders have a physical secondary and could be up to the task, so I just see more chances coming for Allen and Ekeler.
Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that’s got a 51.5-point game total.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there this week.
Now that we’ve established some Week 4 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Justin Herbert
- Austin Ekeler
- Darren Waller
- Derek Carr
- Keenan Allen
- Mike Williams
- Bryan Edwards
- Josh Jacobs (questionable)
- Hunter Renfrow
- Henry Ruggs
- Kenyan Drake
- Peyton Barber (higher if Jacobs sits)
- Jared Cook
- Daniel Carlson
- Tristan Vizcaino
- Raiders DST
- Chargers DST
- Jared Guyton
- Zay Jones
- Fabian Moreau
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!