Tag:

Jose Berrios

7/25 MLB DFS Pitching Picks

written by Jared Contestabile

It is a shorter slate tonight and not a lot of names that stand out among 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. But here are three that certainly stand out among some mediocrity.

Jose Berrios @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $10,600, FanDuel – $9,300

The White Sox have been horrible this week and as recently as last night they just got shut out by Zac Gallen and company. Jose Berrios has been a pitcher who thrives at Target Field and struggles everywhere else. I’ll take his immense talent and ignore what I just said. On the road this season Berrios holds a 7.58 K/9 and a 41% ground ball rate. With the White Sox completely struggling to make contact I think Berrios has the most upside on the 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching slate by far. An all format lock for me.

Lucas Giolito vs Minnesota Twins

DraftKings – $10,900, FanDuel – $9,100

This will be my 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching pivot suggestion off of Berrios. Giolito is not a main option for me because the Twins ability to pop off at any moment is up there with the best teams in the league. The thing that intrigues me with Giolito is how good he is against left handed bats. He holds a .176 BAA and a 10.13 K/9 with a .232 wOBA. The Twins are very dangerous, but Giolito has shown his upside this year and is finally looking like the prospect we all believed in.

Adam Plutko @ Kansas City Royals

DraftKings – $6,000, FanDuel – $7,100

Plutko is not a good pitcher by any means, but he did just face these Royals and completely shut them down. He only gave up two hits with one earned run and unfortunately took a loss. The Royals are scuffling hard and I don’t see why Plutko can’t toss a repeat performance. His strikeout numbers aren’t great, but against right handed bats he has 7.13 K/9 and for a 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching cheap for my SP2 I’ll take a handful of strikeouts. His numbers aren’t anything to get excited about, but this is just a pure target of the Royals.

For more starting pitching analysis, check out our Premium Gold DraftKings DFS Pro Projections.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Winning Edge for 7/4: Early Only Stack Report

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide stacks that I recommend for today’s 4 game early only slate on FD and 6 game slate on DK. I’ve also included my favorite one offs and value plays.

Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Tanner Anderson (OAK)

Implied Run Total: 5.10 Runs

Tanner Anderson has a small sample size coming into today’s matchup (17.2 IP) but has struggled nonetheless. Anderson carries a 7.13 ERA, 5.30 FIP, and 4.17 SIERA. He has struggled more so to left handed batters, carrying a .473 wOBA, .730 SLG, and .439 OBP through 7.1 IP. The Twins are currently hitting below their season averages, slashing .295 wOBA, .164 ISO, and 81 WRC+ over the last two weeks. Their season averages sit at .343 wOBA, .232 ISO, and 112 WRC+. Despite the hitting slump for this Twins team, I will take the matchup and run with it, even with a limited sample size and inflated stats from Tanner’s last start against the Angels.

Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. LHP Jose Quintana (CHC)

Implied Run Total: 4.65 Runs

Jose Quintana comes into today’s matchup carrying a 4.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA through 94 IP. He tends to struggle more to right handed batters. They carry a .325 wOBA, .442 SLG, and .325 OBP against Quintana through 69.2 IP. The Pirates are hitting slightly above their season averages against left handed pitching, slashing .291 wOBA, .133 ISO, and 84 WRC+. Tougher matchup for Pittsburgh against Quintana, who has been fairly dominant to lefties. Most of the Pirates power lies in their left handed batters, but I’m confident they can knock Quintana around a bit this afternoon.

Preferred Stack: Josh Bell $4600 FD|$5600 DK, Starling Marte $3900 FD|$5100 DK, Bryan Reynolds $3400 FD|$4800 DK, and Jose Osuna $2800 FD|$4800 DK.

Honorable Mentions

Seattle Mariners

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL)

Implied Run Total: 4.80 Runs

One-offs & Value Plays

5 years ago 0 comments

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 6/28

Cora Baylis 6 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

This is my favorite article of the week and I can’t tell you just how much I love writing about pitching in DFS. This really feels like my forte and it’s evident by my Monkey Knife Fight results. Over my last 19 suggestions, I’m currently 13-6. We have another pick for you today and we’re going to look to keep the ball rolling.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Jose Berrios, MIN at CWS

DK ($10,800) FD ($10,500)

Berrios is the definition of a cash game play, as he’s truly developed into a guy with an extremely high floor. That’s evident by the fact that he’s pitched at least 5.2 innings in all but one start this season while scoring at least 27 FD points all but twice. Consistency is all you can ask for from your cash game pitcher and that’s this dude’s middle name. Berrios comes into this matchup rolling too, pitching to a 1.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last six starts. Facing Chicago is a treat as well, with the White Sox ranked 24^th in K rate, 25^th in runs scored and 23^rd in wOBA.

Top-Tier Pitchers

Mike Clevinger, CLE at BAL

DK ($9,600) FD ($9,400)

Clevinger was slightly disappointing in his return from the IL but it’s hard to argue with this guy’s numbers. Dating back to last season, Clevinger is providing a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. What’s really impressive about him is the fact that he’s recorded 29 Ks across 16.2 innings this season, which is simply one of the best rates in the Majors. Getting to face Baltimore should only help those gaudy numbers, with the Orioles sitting 19^th in K rate, 26^th in wOBA, 27^th in runs scored and last in xwOBA. Look for this guy to become a five-figure player on both of these DFS sites before you know it.

Merrill Kelly, ARI at SF

DK ($9,100) FD ($8,600)

Even these numbers surprised me from Kelly, as he’s been superb throughout the month. Aside from one dud against the Rockies, Kelly has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Even with that one stinker, Kelly is still pitching to a 2.36 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his last five games, striking out 32 batters across 34 innings of action. That form would make him intriguing pretty much anywhere but getting to pitch in San Francisco is simply amazing for DFS purposes. Not only is Oracle Park arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors, the Giants currently rank 27^th in xwOBA, 28^th in runs scored and 29^th in both wOBA and OPS.

Cheap Pitchers

Anibal Sanchez, ATL at DET

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,400)

This is more about playing against Detroit than it is about Sanchez. This team is simply the best matchup in baseball right now and it’s worth throwing out any pitcher against them. That’s evident by the fact that the Tigers rank 26^th in OPS, 28^th in OPS, 29^th in wOBA and last in both runs scored and K rate. That says a lot about the Motor City Kitties, as their roar has really turned into more of a purr. Sanchez has actually been really solid the last two years too, pitching to a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since the beginning of last season.

Vince Velasquez, PHI at MIA

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,300)

This is one guy I can never seemingly get right for DFS but I’ve absolutely loved him ever since he pitched a complete game shutout against the Padres, striking out 16 batters a few years back. The stuff this guy possesses is absolutely filthy and it’s just a matter of time before he finds some consistency. Facing Miami is a good way to kick start a hot stretch, with the Marlins ranking 18^th in K rate, 29^th in wOBA and last in OPS, xwOBA and runs scored. Getting to pitch in Marlins Park is huge too, with that ballpark ranking as the best pitcher’s parks in the Majors. That was crystal clear when Velasquez allowed just one hit against Miami in his most recent start on June 22.

Fade of the Day

Hyun Jin-Ryu, LAD at COL

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)

I rarely do this but it’s something that needs to be said. People will look at Ryu’s ridiculous 1.27 ERA and 0.84 WHIP and automatically click the + next to his name but that’d be a big mistake. It’s no doubt that this guy has been nails all season long but this is not a spot to succeed at this price for DFS purposes.

Pitching at Coors Field is an absolute nightmare, especially for a contact pitcher. The 1.612 park factor for Coors Field is half a run higher than anywhere else in baseball, as that park has surrendered the most runs in the league by a significant margin. That’s really no surprise considering its history and that’s a scary thought for a guy with a 22 percent career K rate and a SIERA due for some negative regression. Ryu has never pitched well at Coors either, pitching to a 7.56 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in four starts there.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Our MKF plays have been absolutely killing it recently and it’s truly become our favorite DFS site. A 13-6 record speaks for itself but there’s really only one pick I like today.

Mike Clevinger Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

This is really the only play that caught my eye, as Clevinger has a decent chance at reaching double-digit Ks. Not only does he face a Baltimore team who ranks 19th in K rate and last in xwOBA, Clevinger is also one of the league leaders with a 47 percent K rate. That number is bloated because of a small sample size but his 26.3 percent K rate between 2017-18 is impressive nonetheless.

6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS Podcast for June 23 with the King and Our Weather/MLB Expert

Nicholas Robert 6 years ago

written by Nicholas Robert

Scott Engel and Mark Paquette break down the busy Sunday slate on the June 23rd MLB DFS Podcast.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Thank you for listening to our DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily DFS on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily DFS has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. Our private Win Daily Slack Channel provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. We have channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one for to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular prices.

6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

Podcast For 6/22 MLB DFS With Jason Mezrahi & Your Favorite Meteorologist Mark Paquette

Jason Mezrahi 6 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

DFS PROS Jason Mezrahi and Mark Paquette get into the full MLB schedule for Saturday 6/22. They break down the three different slates on FanDuel. There is a quick early only slate, an early sked and then a late slate.

On the early only slate it looks like a day to stack up the Minnesota Twins with Jose Berrios.

In the middle slate they believe Chris Archer is the arm to target while stacking up both sides of the Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays game.

Looks like there could be some potential fireworks again in the White Sox vs. Rangers matchup. Jason tries his best to lay out a lineup to take down the FanDuel Qualifier for the Main slate starting at 7:15pm eastern time. It’s a tough decision to either go with Ryu or Lynn up top or trying to take a gamble on one of the value pitchers like Sanchez or Foltynewicz. Take a listen and get a game-by-game MLB DFS breakdown for Saturday 6/22.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Thank you for listening. Follow Win Daily DFS on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily DFS has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. We have channels setup for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicate to sports betting and one dedicate to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks: Berrios is Best

Mark Paquette 6 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

This is a weird Saturday slate with far more afternoon games than normal. Kansas City looks to be a game with only a minor threat of rain but it does not look like a huge problem. STL could be a bigger problem. Jose Berrios can help alleviate any DFS problems.

Upper-Tier Arm

Jose Berrios, Twins at Royals ($10,300 FD, $11,000 DK): There is not a ton of elite arms on this slate but one of the best of them is Berrios. He will have a tough act to follow after an incredible start against the Red Sox on Monday. In that start, he allowed only one run while retiring 19 straight batters at one point. The Minnesota right-hander struck out 10 without issuing a walk in a season-high eight strong innings.

He gets the Royals, who are without one of their best bats in Adalberto Mondesi (though they did get back Hunter Dozier). Berrios gets the benefit of a major park upgrade, going from Target Field to Kauffman Stadium. Considering how well Berrios is pitching and the Royals lack of pop, the Minnesota hurler is a great choice to be your cash pitcher.

Middle-Tier Arms

Mike Fiers, Rays at Athletics ($8,100 FD, $9,300 DK): A few years ago, Fiers was touted as an up-and-coming fireballing righty. Then with the Brewers, some baseball people believe his career turned for the worse when he broke Giancarlo (then known as Mike) Stanton’s cheek in a gruesome hit-by-pitch injury. The past few years, Fiers has been a guy the DFS industry would turn to to stack against due to his tendency to give up the long balls.

However, few pitchers have been as good as Fiers over the past two months. He owns a 2.70 ERA since April 26, good for seventh-lowest among AL pitchers. In his last start, Fiers held the Rays to two runs over six innings on June 11 in Tampa Bay. He now gets to repeat that strong start in Oakland. Though it would be tempting to say that he is cash-game worthy, I do not think he is there yet (at least in my eyes).

Lance Lynn, White Sox at Rangers ($9,500 FD, $10,100 DK): This pick is not for the faint of heart, so lets call this a GPP-only choice. One of the reasons why this pick comes with danger is that Globe Life Park, and the surrounding area, has warmed up temperature-wise. Even though this is a night game, it is still going to be hot, near 90 to start the game. And the wind shields installed at the park in 2015 that prevent this park from being a little different than Coors Field, are missing and thus the ball is carrying even better than normal.

However, Lynn is in the middle of a career resurgence. He is 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA over his last eight starts, averaging a terrific 11.35 strikeouts per nine innings while only walking 1.38 batters per nine innings. His eight straight quality starts in that stretch is the longest by a Rangers pitcher since Yu Darvish in 2016.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Bargain Basement Arm

Elieser Hernandez, Marlins at Phillies ($7,000 FD, $6,500 DK): Hernandez finally gets to pitch against someone other than the Cardinals. Hernandez makes his third career start and his second road appearance. The 24-year-old lost both of his two MLB starts against St. Louis, but he he pitched well in both appearances. Hitters are 1-for-13 (.077) vs. his slider, and .188 off his changeup and WHIP is 1.17. So, he has deserved better than starting his career off 0-2.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Jose Berrios Over 6.5 Strikeouts/Danny Duffy Under 5.5 Strikeouts

MNF Fight Picks for Saturday: Jose Berrios

Look for the deep, right-handed heavy Twins lineup to get to Duffy early and cause him to have a short outing. Berrios will likely continue his recent success against a predominantly right-handed Royals lineup. Over the last two weeks, Kansas City struck out the 13th most frequently at 23.1% while the Twins were 21st at 20.1%.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS!

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Pitching Picks for 6/17: Dance with Lance?

Mark Paquette 6 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

It’s an unusually large (for a Monday) MLB slate with 12 games on tap. Games in CIN, WSH, NYY and ATL all have some rain concerns.

Upper-Tier Arm

Jose Berrios, Red Sox at Twins ($9,600 FD, $10,300 DK): There is not a ton in the way of expensive pitchers that I really love on this slate. Soroka is coming off his worst start of the season and will be pitching in a park with weather that greatly favors offense, Castillo is due for a regression and like Soroka faces weather issues and a park that will not do him any favors, Clevinger is making his first MLB start in a long time and Corbin is on a three-game losing streak. So that leaves Berrios against a suddenly resurgent Red Sox team and offense (a trip to Camden can do wonders). He is GPP-only and let’s get our cash pitchers at a reduced price to spend on bats.

Middle-Tier Arms

Kenta Maeda, Giants at Dodgers ($8,600 FD, $9,000 DK): Maeda will likely be the biggest favorite in Vegas as the NL-leading Dodgers take on a bad Giants team that is 26th in ISO vs. righties (.158), strikes out the 11th most frequently (23.5%) and their wOBA ranks 27th at .289. Maeda’s last start was a strange one in Anaheim, where he gave up five-runs and 36-pitches during the first inning of the game, then didn’t allow a hit to 13 consecutive batters. Manager Dave Roberts said Maeda needs to be more aggressive with his fastball so that change could come in this start. He could be my cash game pitcher on either site.

Lance Lynn, Indians at Rangers ($9,300 FD, $9,500 DK): Much like teammate Mike Minor, ex-Ranger Martin Perez and a few other veteran pitchers around the league, Lynn is in the midst of a resurgent season. Lynn has a 3.39 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his last nine starts. He is 4-0 with a 4.91 ERA in six home starts, a park that is notoriously one of the tougher venues to pitch in across all of MLB. His 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings currently ranks 17th best in the A.L. In his previous two career starts against the Indians, he is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA. To me, it is between Lynn and Maeda as my cash pitchers with Maeda’s discount, weaker opponent (not that the Indians are the ’27 Yankees, don’t get me wrong), pitching without a DH and better park to work in making me lean towards Maeda. In favor towards Lynn is that Dave Roberts’ quick hook could allow Lynn to go deeper in the game than Maeda.

Bargain Basement Arm

Miles Mikolas, Marlins at Cardinals ($7,000 FD, $6,400 DK): One of the better pitchers in the NL in 2018 has fallen upon hard times in 2019. This has resulted in a DEEP discount in his pricing on both sites. This is a GPP-only pick because of his struggles this season. In his last seven appearances, Mikolas is 1-5 with a 4.93 ERA. He lasted just five innings in the Cardinals’ 9-0 loss to this same Marlins team last Wednesday, giving up eight hits and a grand slam. One thing Mikolas has going for him is that he has been much better at home this season, with a 2.87 ERA and .204 batting average against as compared to 7.76 and .346, respectively, on the road. At home, he has given up a very respectable five home runs in 47 innings, while on the road he has allowed nine in 31.1 innings.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

The King’s Pitching and MLB Prop Picks for 6/12

Scott Engel 6 years ago

written by Scott Engel

Yonny Chirinos definitely deserves consideration on theearly slate at $10,800 on DraftKings. He has struck out six or more batters ineach of his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA at home. Oakland isone of the best hitting road teams, but they are just middle of the packoverall and I would use Chirinos as a GPP play.

Zach Plesac should be locked into the day slate againstCincinnati. He displayed length in his last start, going 111 pitches, and hehas a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in three starts so far. The Reds are Top 5 in theNational League in team strikeouts vs. RHPs. Lock in Plesac at 7400 onDraftKings.

Mike Soroka is my top play of the night at 10,900, as he isin play against any opponent right now, and especially against the Pirates, whoare Top 5 in road strikeouts. He has allowed one run or less in nine of hispast 10 starts. Soroka is 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA in night games, another notablenumber among the many superlative stats he has posted so far in an incredibleearly-season breakout. He should get some quality run support too, as Atlantahas pasted Pittsburgh pitching for 10 home runs in the first two games of theseries.

Zach Eflin returned from the IL Friday and allowed one runin six innings, striking out six Reds. He is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA at home. Arizonais third in the league in road strikeouts, so consider Eflin a GPP at 8700. Hehas not become a high regarded name yet overall and may not be widely owned onthe night slate in a pitcher’s park. It’s a daring move, one that could payoff. I’ll want him as my second pitcher on DK tonight.

Brandon Woodruff’s price is very friendly at 7400, butopposing Justin Verlander may make it hard to get the win. Houston is justoutside the Top 10 in team batting in June and won’t be fully easy to navigateeven at less than full strength. Verlander (11,300) is a fine pick against any opponentright now but I’d opt for Soroka at the lesser price against the weaker opponent.

Seattle is fourth in the A.L. in road strikeouts, and JoseBerrios is 5-1 with a 2.72 home ERA. At $10,300 he is the guy to pivot offSoroka and Verlander, who should be the most widely owned choices. After thosetwo, he is my third favorite standout pitcher of the night slate.

The Giants are fourth in the National League in home strikeouts,so Joey Lucchesi (9600) is a top option outside of the Big Three of Soroka,Verlander and Berrios tonight. The Giants did actually rock Lucchesi for sevenruns in four innings at home in April, so look for him to make the adjustmentsthis time out.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Mike Soroka over 4.5 Pitching Strikeouts

This seems like it’s almost too easy, as Soroka has at least five strikeouts in each of his last four starts. But if there is one guy who may be able to get to Soroka tonight, it could be Starling Marte, who is hitting .301 against righties, so I would take the over on him at 1.5 total bases even while liking Soroka a lot. Play Soroka and Marte now and get 100 percent Bonus!

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 5/24

Cora Baylis 6 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Our pitching picks have been on point recently and I absolutely love this group of pitchers on this slate. What’s funny is that we’re actually going to fade a couple of studs. That truly says a lot about the very talented arms on this schedule and it’s dealers choice in terms of cheap or expensive arms.

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Blake Snell, TB at CLE

DK ($11,400) FD ($11,200)

There are a ton of great options on this slate, but Snell has the best matchup of all the studs. The Indians rank 24^th in scoring, 26^th in OPS and 25^th in wOBA. They’re equally as bad against lefties, ranking 24^th in both average and OPS while ranking 21^st in strikeouts. That makes any pitcher worth considering against them, especially a guy who’s coming off an AL Cy Young. Snell is not far off of that 2018 form, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and owning a 71: 12 K:BB rate across 49 innings of action.

Top-Tier Options

Robbie Ray, ARI at SF

DK ($10,900) FD ($8,700)

While I can’t justify using him on DK at $10,900, the $8,700 price tag on FanDuel makes him tough to avoid. What I really like about Ray is this matchup, with the Giants ranking as one of the worst offenses in the league, In fact, San Francisco currently sits 27^th in runs scored, 28^th in OPS and 29^th in wOBA. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that Oracle Park is arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. That puts Ray squarely in play, as his 30 percent K rate, .299 wOBA and 3.35 ERA is hard to overlook against a lineup like this.

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,200) FD ($9.900)

The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises in the league and Berrios is a huge reason why. The stud righty has broken out to post a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while providing a 60:11 K:BB rate. Those are some of the best numbers in the AL and it really makes him tough to fade against an offense like this. Not only does Chicago rank 20^th in both runs scored and OPS, they also have the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season. That’s why Berrios enters this game as a –230 favorite, which only adds more spunk to his value.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. DET

DK ($10,100) FD ($10,600)

This is probably my favorite tournament play on the board, as Syndergaard’s upside is simply monstrous in a matchup like this. While the season-long numbers are nothing special, his peripherals are simply elite. In fact, Syndergaard has a 2.76 career FIP and 27 percent K rate while posting a .276 xwOBA so far this season. That means he’s been the victim of some bad luck and a start against the Tigers is a good way to regress back to the mean. Detroit currently ranks 29^th in OPS, runs scored and K rate while sitting 28^th in wOBA. That spells disaster in a pitching park like Citi Field, especially considering they’re about to lose a DH.

Mid-Tier Option

Joey Lucchesi, SD at TOR

DK ($8,900) FD ($7,000)

Lucchesi was my play of the week last Friday on FanDuel and he continues to be undervalued. While his 4.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP doesn’t look like anything special, his peripherals tell a different story. We’re talking about a guy with a .293 xwOBA and 3.50 xFIP to match his impressive 25.4 percent K rate. Those are elite peripherals and you’d usually see those sort of numbers from a $9,000 player. Getting to face Toronto is nothing to fear either, with the Blue Jays ranking 27^th in wOBA, 20th in K rate and 26^th in both runs scored and OPS. That’s why Lucchesi enters this matchup as the favorite with Toronto projected for only four runs.

Cheap Pitchers

Drew Pomeranz, SF vs. ARI

DK ($7,200) FD ($5,900)

Alright, we’re going to get a little risky here with these final two picks. I always have a hard time fading a Giants pitcher at home in a quality matchup, especially when they’re so cheap. Pitching at Oracle Park simply can’t be matched, as that’s easily the lowest-scoring park in the Majors. That’s why we’re looking at a 7.5-total here, with Arizona projected for fewer than four runs. Pomeranz is a decent bet for a quality start, which is all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply. The San Fran southpaw is not as bad as his numbers indicate either, as his 4.00 career ERA and 23 percent K rate are acceptable numbers from someone in such a good situation. The Diamondbacks ranking 23^rd in xwOBA only adds to Pomeranz’s intrigue.

Kyle McGowin, WSH vs. MIA

DK ($7,000) FD ($5,500)

This is simply a punt play because anyone is worth starting against the Marlins. Miami’s offensive numbers are downright historic, as they rank last in wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG, runs scored and OPS. That puts any pitcher in play against them and it’s hard to overlook a guy who’s only $5,500 on FanDuel in such a premium matchup. McGowin’s Triple-A numbers are rather impressive too, with the right-hander having posted a 3.50 FIP and 26 percent K rate at that level over the last two years. He also enters this matchup as a –150 favorite with Miami projected for only four runs.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Jose Berrios 1.5 more strikeouts than Reynaldo Lopez

With Minnesota entering this game as a monster favorite, it seems likely that Berrios will last much longer than Lopez. That alone makes this a great spot, as Berrios is the far superior pitcher. The fact that Chicago ranks 25^th in K rate while Minnesota sits third only adds to the value of this pick, as I could see Berrios recording four more Ks than Lopez.

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Noah Syndergaard over 6.5 strikeouts

The upside here is simply ridiculous. We’re talking about a pitcher with a 27 percent K rate facing the second-worst lineup in baseball. It’s not only that the Tigers have a horrible lineup, they also own the second-worst K rate in the Majors while playing without a DH. Those factors are hard to overlook and working in a pitcher’s park like Citi Field puts Syndergaard in play for double-digit Ks.

6 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Jose Berrios

7/25 MLB DFS Pitching Picks

DFS Winning Edge for 7/4: Early Only Stack Report