Tag:

Joey Logano

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings Analysis for the Daytona 500

written by bradleemikeska@gmail.com

The 2020 NASCAR season is finally here. The 2 Bluegreen Vacations Duels At DAYTONA are on tap for Thursday to complete the field for the 62nd Daytona 500 this Sunday. Denny Hamlin took home the trophy last season, and for the 2nd time in 4 years. Jimmie Johnson is the only other driver in the field with multiple wins in this event. While starting position is nice to have for DFS, I will always lean towards talent starting at the back of the field.

**The Bluegreen Vacations Duel #1 At DAYTONA**

**The Bluegreen Vacations Duel #2 At DAYTONA**

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This is my favorite race of the year, as I have taken home huge wins in the past with unlikely winners including Trevor Bayne and Austin Dillon. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the pole for Sunday’s race and leads a slew of driver racing for new teams.

2020 NASCAR driver changes

Richard Childress Racing
#8 Chevrolet
2020: Tyler Reddick
2019: Daniel Hemric

Stewart-Haas Racing
#41 Ford
2020: Cole Custer
2019: Daniel Suarez

Roush Fenway Racing
#17 Ford
2020: Chris Buescher
2019: Ricky Stenhouse Jr

JTG Daugherty Racing
#37 Chevrolet
2020: Ryan Preece
2019: Chris Buescher

JTG Daugherty Racing
#47 Chevrolet
2020: Ricky Stenhouse Jr
2019: Ryan Preece

Wood Brothers Racing
#21 Ford
2020: Matt DiBenedetto
2019: Paul Menard

Levine Family Racing
#95 Toyota
2020: Christopher Bell
2019: Matt DiBenedetto

Front Row Motorsports
#38 Ford
2020: John Hunter Nemechek
2019: David Ragan

Premium Motorsports
#15 Chevrolet
2020: Brennan Poole
2019: Ross Chastain

StarCom Racing
#00 Chevrolet
2020: Quin Houff
2019: Landon Cassill

Many rookies should make an impact in 2020 with Christopher Bell leading the way, but others including Custer and Reddick could give him a nice run It was nice to see these drivers get their chance on the big stage.

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My top DraftKings DFS plays going into this weekend are below. I may tweak them a bit once the final starting grid comes out, but I am fairly confident in these choices at this point. Other than maybe Stenhouse Jr. at the top, the qualifying was not too surprising as 4 Chevrolets were at the top. Erik Jones took down the Busch Clash last Weekend and finished 10th in qualifying.

I will be updating my plays, including my DFS driver usage, on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kyle Busch $9,800
Denny Hamlin $10,400
Joey Logano $10,500

Mid-Tier

Erik Jones $7,900
Matt DiBenedetto $7,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,200

Value Plays

Christopher Bell $6,700
Tyler Reddick $6,400
Chris Buescher $7,100

I have also chosen 5 NASCAR plays that I think have good value to win on DraftKings. While I think a big odds win is not probable, I am always willing to take some shots. Make sure you always shop around as most of the good odds this week are on FanDuel, not DraftKings.

Kyle Busch 10/1 (13/1 on FanDuel) $250
Jimmie Johnson 20/1 (22/1 on FanDuel) $100
Christopher Bell 33/1 (42/1 on FanDuel) $100
Erick Jones 25/1 $100
Bubba Wallace 50/1 (70/1 on FanDuel) $50

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS NASCAR Post-Qualifying Analysis for Miami

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The weather, unfortunately, wiped out qualifying, thus the starting lineup was put in place using owner’s points. The final four left in the chase for the Championship will start in the top 4 which makes for excitement in the race but does not give us too much for DFS purposes. Below is our DraftKings DFS NASCAR post-qualifying analysis for Miami.

There does not seem to be any huge advantage for anyone, but if I have to rank them in order, I would have to go with the following ranking.

Hamlin
Truex Jr.
Harvick
Kyle Busch

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They were only able to get one practice session in Saturday. Kyle Busch topped the session with the best speed of 168.966 and the best overall lap average. Martin Truex Jr. was 2nd in both categories. Hamlin was 3rd in Practice and 5th in lap averages followed by Harvick who was 9th in practice and 4th in lap averages. Even after these results, I am sticking with my ranking. While you can’t ignore Kyle ever, I just think the other 3 have been better in my eyes.

Joey Logano is still the most intriguing driver in my eyes outside of the championship four. I think he wants to repeat in this race and prove he is still on top of his game. I also like Keselowski. He was fast in practice which helps, but he has had several issues in recent races. I will have him in one of my lineups. I also expect Chase Elliott to be in the mix.

I have ranked my top drivers outside of these seven below. The only addition to my first article this week is Erik Jones who looked good in practice. These are the 14 drivers I focused on for my DFS lineups.

Jimmie Johnson
Alex Bowman
Erik Jones
Austin Dillon
Matt DiBenedetto
Ty Dillon
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

I have decided to only play 5 lineups this week. My Optimal Lineup includes Hamlin, Truex Jr., Logano, and Austin Dillon plus 2 value plays. It was very difficult to decide who to use, but I thought this foursome was the best. I do have Harvick and Kyle Busch in a lineup as well as many of the others I spoke of above.

The odds on DraftKings have not changed as the top four are still +325. My other top picks for this site would be Logano at +2000, Jones at +4000, and Johnson at +10000. I think Logano is the best value.

These odds are so much better than what FanDuel is offering, except for Jones who is +5000. Nothing else intrigued me.

While winning some serious cash is top on my list tomorrow, I do want this championship to come down to the last lap. I think Hamlin edges out Truex Jr. with Logano finishing 3rd. Good Luck!

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Since I am on Hamlin and Truex Jr. to lead, I have to go with the under on both Harvick and Kyle Busch.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings Analysis for Miami

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Phoenix pretty much went as I thought. I was in on Chase Elliott and he crashed. He had to push it and it ended up costing him. I am just glad he went all in trying to win. We are now down to the final four and will crown a Champion on Sunday. Below is my DraftKings NASCAR DFS analysis for Miami.

***Final Four eligible for the Championship***

The creme rose to the top as these four drivers were the dominate ones this season, each winning at least 4 times. It is no surprise that they top the odds to win Sunday’s event as all 4 drivers are +325 on DraftKings.

Homestead-Miami Speedway, a 1.5-mile track, has hosted the Ford EcoBoost 400 since 1999. Only Denny Hamlin has won this race multiple times in 2009 and 2013, but each of the other three finalists also have a recent win here (Harvick 2014, Kyle Busch 2015, Martin Truex Jr. 2017) I really do not see any of them having an advantage at this point, but qualifying could change that.

A few other drivers I think have a chance to win with favorable odds include Joey Logano, last year’s winner, at 14-1, Jimmie Johnson, the 2016 winner, at 100-1, and Alex Bowman at 50-1.

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Looking at DraftKings DFS, the top 4 are reasonably priced led by Busch at $11,400 followed by Hamlin at $11,000, Harvick at $10,800, and Truex Jr. at $10,600.

Of those outside of the championship hunt, the top 3 values I see are Joey Logano at $9,800, Alex Bowman at $7,800, and Matt DiBenedetto at $7,600. I am very leery at this point of any deep value unless someone shows something in practice or qualifying. Below are my top drivers at each price point pre-qualifying.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $10,800
Denny Hamlin $11,100
Joey Logano $9,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $7,800
Matt DiBenedetto $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,500
Austin Dillon $7,100
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,900

I will be updating my DFS picks after qualifying Saturday including my Driver usage and Optimal lineup.

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NASCAR

DraftKings NASCAR post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The practices and qualifying at ISM Raceway have put me in a quandary as I consider the post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix. The big question for me is to play Chase Elliott or not. He dominated the 2nd practice and qualified 6th. His only chance to make the final 4 next week in Miami is to win, and I think he will take any chance to make it happen, He definitely has the talent to do so. Below is our post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix.

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Blaney, Harvick, Hamlin, Logano, DiBenedetto, and Kyle Busch all finished in the top 10 of both practice sessions and look to have good speed. Kyle Busch, Logano, and Hamlin also took the top 3 spots in qualifying and must be part of a large percentage of DFS lineups. Truex Jr. qualified 4th followed by Larson, Elliott, and Harvick, so as I anticipated the leader board is going to be filled with the top talent all day Sunday. Blaney who qualified 10th was the lowest qualifier of the 8 still in the playoff.

I Identified 5 value drivers yesterday that I thought would play a big role in DFS lineups on Sunday. They qualified about where I thought they might except for Dillon who was lower than expected on 28th. I am a little worried that they will not have the speed to compete for a top 5 finish, and I leaned on experience with Johnson and Newman as I build my lineups.

Ryan Newman – 20th
Jimmie Johnson – 22nd
Aric Almirola – 11th
Austin Dillon – 28th
Daniel Suarez – 15th

Some other drivers who intrigued me included Bowman who qualified 14th, DiBenedetto who qualified 16th, and John Nemechek who qualified 26th. I also still like the 4 plays I made yesterday using Almirola 42/1, Johnson and Suarez at 70/1, and the value play of the day Newman at 180/1 to win. The new post-qualifying odds have not come out yet, but it will be dominated I am sure by the top qualifiers and I do not believe there will be enough value on any of them so I will pass.

I ended up with 40 lineups this week on DraftKings. Pricing made it difficult to get as many of the top drivers as I wanted. I also really wanted to avoid too many deep values plays. My driver’s usages are below. Good Luck!!!

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I am leaning towards the under on both drivers here, but I think Blaney has the best chance to hit that number as he goes all in for a playoff spot.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Finally had a good week of DFS in Texas as Kevin Harvick took care of business and punched his ticket to the final 4 in Miami. This week we head to the ISM Raceway in Phoenix to fill the last 2 spots in the playoff chase. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have the advantage, but one wrong move on the track or in the pits can change that. Chase Elliott is in a major slump and is in a must win situation. I am interested to see how he practices and qualifies, because he could be an interesting DFS play.

Phoenix is a 1 mile track that opened in 1964. Since 2005 they have held 2 races a year which are currently the TicketGuardian500 and Bluegreen Vacations500. Harvick is the dominator here with 9 wins and 16 top 5 finishes. He will nearly be impossible to fade if he qualifies on top. Other drivers have also had success here like Jimmie Johnson (4 wins – None since 2009), Kyle Busch (3 wins – Including the last two at this track), and Ryan Newman (2 wins)

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DFS this week will be very specific for me with the 5 drivers racing for the last 2 spots dominating my lineups. The cream will rise to the top and I can’t imagine any of those five not being in the top 10 unless they get caught up in a wreck. For me, Elliott will be the wild card. I will be over owned on him if he qualifies and practices well, and under owned or will fade him completely if he does not.

Regarding Harvick and Truex Jr. if they get the pole I will probably be 50% or more, otherwise I most likely will play them more as a GPP pivot. Contests will be won based on how the value performs. I have five drivers I will be focusing on.

Ryan Newman – I love the fact that he has won here before and has driven very well the last 2 weeks. Outside of the Hollywood Casino 500 disaster, he has averaged 54 DK points over his last 3 finishes and is only $7,600 this week.
Jimmie Johnson – He is a legend and at $7,900 I always have to give him a look. He has finished 34th or worse the last 3 weeks, but outside of those, he has finished 10th, 8th 9th, 11th, and 11th. He has a top 10 in him and possibly a top 5 if he gets some breaks.
Aric Almirola – He has back to back 4th place finishes at this track his last 2 races, and he has proven week after week he is a top driver qualifying well and always in the mix including last week’s 2nd place finish. He just has to stay out of trouble and another top 5 is very possible.
Austin Dillon – At $6,800 he is a tremendous value. He has been consistent and if everything goes right, he has serious top 10 potential. His value goes up if he qualifies outside the top 20 as long as he practices ok. He finished 8th in this race last year.
Daniel Suarez – After a rough go of it lately, he finished 3rd last week and I think he can bring that momentum to Phoenix. I assume he will qualify in the 10-15 range and I love his top 5 potential. His last 3 finishes of 19th, 21st, and 36th here may also keep his ownership down.

***2019 TicketGuardian500 at Phoenix Results***

***2018 Can Am 500 at Phoenix Results***

Below are my pre Practice/Qualifying rankings. I will update my rankings and give my driver usage for DFS once qualifying is official.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $11,500
Kyle Busch $11,900
Kyle Larson $9,600

Mid-Tier

Ryan Newman $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900
Aric Almirola $8,100

Value Plays

Daniel Suarez $7,200
Austin Dillon $6,800
Rickie Stenhouse Jr. $6,600

I was also looking at DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s sportsbooks and FanDuel has the best odd by far. There are 4 plays that I think have great value with Ryan Newman at 180/1 being ridiculous.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Texas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Martinsville did not turn out like I has hoped as Martin Truex Jr. did exactly what I expected Denny Hamlin to do by dominating the race. Those short tracks are tricky and you have to throw your dart. This week we get back to a 1.5 mile track at the Texas Motor Speedway. There are only 2 races left for those 8 finalists still left in the playoffs to make the final four in Miami. For those below the cut line, this week in crucial as a DNF could force a must-win situation at Phoenix next week. Truex is currently on top followed by Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano in the top 4.

***Playoff Standing thru Martinsville***

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The Texas Motor Speedway is a newer track opening in 1996. It hosts 2 races yearly with the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 in the Spring and the AAA Texas 500 in the fall. Jimmie Johnson has dominated at this track with 7 wins, but many others in the race Sunday have also had success including Kyle Busch and Hamlin with 3 wins, Harvick with 2, and Logano and Newman with one. Hamlin took the race earlier this season with some longer shots in the next three spots including Bowyer, Suarez, and Jones. I will have to spread a bit more in this race, to make sure I have proper DFS coverage.

***2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Results***

Below are my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings for DraftKings. I am a little more comfortable on this type of track, but I still prefer the super speedways. I always like drivers who will go for the win and take the risks necessary to make it happen.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $10,800
Kevin Harvick $10,400
Kyle Busch $11,200

Mid-Tier

Jimmie Johnson $8,600
Erik Jones $8,400
William Byron $8,000

Value Plays

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,800
Daniel Suarez $7,200
Paul Menard $7,300

Kevin Harvick led qualifying which was no surprise. Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin were close behind followed by Kurt Busch to complete the first two rows. The other playoff drivers qualified 11th (Logano), 12th (Kyle Busch), 13th (Larson), 14th (Elliott), 15th (Larson), and 17th (Truex Jr.) so all are in decent position to make a run to the top.

It was very hard to decide who I wanted to back in this race on DraftKings. I decided to lean on the big three of Harvick, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch and wheel a bunch of value around them. It was hard to ignore Johnson who qualified 25th, but I was cautious only using him 4 times. I also thought Bowyer (24th), Newman (25th), and Menard (31st) had top 10-15 potential which would score well in DFS. I had to throw in some deep value in some lineups, but no one under $6K stood out. Below is my driver usage over 23 lineups. Good Luck!

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I am a bit leery about Logano in this spot, so I would lean under with him, but I think Jones could lead some laps and get a top 5 finish, thus, I am on the over with him.

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NASCAR

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 4 events left after a crazy finish in Kansas that saw Joey Logano edge out Brad Keselowski for the last of the 8 playoff spots. Now we head to Martinsville in NASCAR DFS to start the final-four playoff push for Miami. Kyle Busch leads the playoff standings with 46 points followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

***Current Playoff Standings. The top 4 after Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix race for the title in Miami on November 17th***

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The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.52 mile track that opened in 1947. The STP 500 is ran in the Spring and this race, the First Data 500, is always in the Fall. Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports have dominated this event in the past as Johnson has 6 wins, with the last in 2016, and Hendrick Motorsports has 16 wins since 1987. Chevrolet dominated with 6 straight wins from 2011 to 2016, but Toyota and Ford have won the last two with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin is the only other multiple winner of this event, winning back to back in 2009-2010. Johnson and Hamlin also have won the Spring STP 500 3 times each with Brad Keselowski winning it twice.

Here were my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings. This is a race where the cream usually rises to the top, and I like to choose drivers that qualify well. Sometimes you are forced to go outside the top 10 for value, but otherwise the top is best. You will also see the best drivers are slightly more expensive this week.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $11,000
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,300
William Byron $8,000
Jimmie Johnson $8,100

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Paul Menard $7,100

Qualifying was not too surprising. Denny Hamlin took the pole and will be my main play for the race. Chase Elliott qualified 2nd, but due to a blown engine in practice, he will be starting at the rear of the field. The other playoff drivers were all over the grid with Truex Jr. 3rd, Blaney 6th, Joey Logano 10th, Kyle Busch 13th, Larson 14th, and Kevin Harvick a disappointing 22nd.

I decided to play only 3 lineups this weekend. Hamlin is in all three of them, then I mixed in the rest of my favorite plays. I was planning on playing deeper, but I decided to go with less lineups in more contests. My best week ever in NASCAR DFS was using one lineup that pushed over 600 points, so lets hope this strategy works again. My driver usage is below. Good Luck!

***DraftKings DFS Picks for Martinsville***

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I am going with the under for both drivers in this play. Elliott is at the back of the pack to start and I do not see Busch contending. Neither will lead enough laps to get the needed Fantasy Points.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Kansas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 5 events left after an amazing race at Talladega last weekend. 10 drivers are still in the chase for the last 6 spots in the playoffs with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney already guaranteed spots into the next round. The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Sunday should be very interesting as some below the cut line are in must-win situations. Those above the cut line need to stay aggressive, but must avoid a DNF.

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The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track that opened in 2001 and has become a main cog in the playoff chase. Chevrolet has won 10 of the 18 events and 3 drivers in the field (Johnson, Harvick, and Logano) have won twice. Chase Elliott won last year’s event. The Digital Ally 400 event is also held at the Kansas track in May. Harvick and Johnson have each also won this event. Brad Keselowski is the only 2-time winner including this year’s event, which had a nice mix of chalk and value plays in the top 10.

***2019 DIGITAL ALLY 400 RESULTS AT KANSAS***

Below were my pre-qualifying DFS rankings. There was a huge focus on the drivers in the playoffs, but narrowing in on the value plays with Top-10 potential is crucial.

High Priced

Joey Logano $9,800
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Kevin Harvick $11,000

Mid-Tier

Clint Bowyer $8,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,000
William Byron $8,200

Value Plays

Chris Buescher $6,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Ryan Newman $7,300

Qualifying gave two playoff chase drivers some issues as Kevin Harvick was not able to qualify after after failing inspection and will start at the rear of the field. Martin Truex Jr. failed inspection twice and qualified 11th. Both have lost their crew chiefs for rest of the weekend. Harvick instantly becomes the chalk of the event in DFS. It will be hard to fade him. Rookie Daniel Hemric took the pole at just over 178 MPH. David Ragan was a surprise #2 qualifier followed by Blaney, Keselowski, and Larson in the top 5.

Kyle Busch continues to qualify poorly, finishing 18th as did other playoff chase competitors Denny Hamlin (23rd) and Joey Logano (29th). There will be a ton of jostling for position as these drivers try to move their way to the top.
I have included my final driver percentages for Kansas below over 41 lineups. My “OPTIMAL” lineup will include Harvick, Elliott, and Keselowski with 3 value plays. I am using this lineup in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Post Qualifying Report: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

Qualifying always plays a huge part in assembling a NASCAR DFS lineup at Restrictor Plate tracks and that’s what we have this weekend. The Coke Zero Sugar 400 will be Saturday night at Daytona. We will take a quick look at which values have changed after qualifying and who to target.

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Value Increased

There were a lot of low priced drivers who also qualified low that I mentioned in my main preview article. We will take a look at those who have increased values after qualifying.

Ryan Preece has been a good Restrictor Plate driver early in his career and he could be a quality choice after qualifying 26th. He has huge Place Differential upside.

David Ragan qualified one spot lower in 27th and has been pretty good on Restrictor Plate tracks over his career. If he can crack the Top 15 he will be a great value at a low price.

My favorite bargain priced driver did not change after qualifying. Michael McDowell qualified 28th and has shown in the past he can make his way to the front from there. I would not be surprised if McDowell ends up as a Top 5 NASCAR DFS driver Saturday night.

Brendan Gaughan qualified in 39th and has been a bit of a Restrictor Plate specialist in the past. He is a lesser known name because of his limited schedule, which could keep him lower owned. He has huge upside starting so far back.

Austin Dillon qualified 21st and won the Daytona 500 in the past. He has decent value with his price and this starting position.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will start 19th and has one of the highest Driver Ratings over the past few years. He should provide good value.

Value Decreased

There were a lot of big names who qualified well and became risky plays for Saturday night. These guys could all run well but the risk of wrecking puts them lower in my ranks.

Joey Logano will start on the pole and that is concerning. Although he could lead a lot of laps, the leader often doesn’t run the fastest lap at Daytona. Fast laps are worth more than laps led, which limits his upside.

Kyle Busch is starting second and has all of the same concerns as Joey Logano. He is even higher priced which will make me stay away from him even more than Logano.

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. fill out the Top 5. Their values all took a hit after qualifying.

More big names are in the Top 10 and sixth through 10th goes as follows: Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliot, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney. These drivers are in a better spot than those in the Top 5 but are still risky plays.

Top NASCAR DFS Plays

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

Brendan Gaughan ($7,200)

Erik Jones ($8,800)

Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Kyle Busch ($11,000)

Alex Bowman ($8,600)

Wild Card NASCAR DFS (High Risk – High Reward)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Daytona: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

The NASCAR Monster Cup Series heads to Daytona for the second time this season after an exciting Camping World 400. Alex Bowman held off a late charging Kyle Larson to get his first career win in the Cup Series last weekend. NASCAR DFS players need to be aware that the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona will be on Saturday night.

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Outlook

The strategies for races at Daytona and Talladega are completely different than for any other race tracks. Place Differential is the most important stat for these two tracks. Starting in the back does not signify a slow car in these races and provides upside compared to someone starting near the front. There is a some luck that goes into picking the drivers who will stay out of the wrecks but we can minimize that chance by rostering the ones who will get up front and stay there. It will be very important to check back after qualifying is done to see the high upside and low upside NASCAR DFS plays. These are guys I expect to run well but the picks can take a 180 degree turn depending on qualifying.

High Salary ($9,000+ on DraftKings)

I tend to stay away from the ultra high priced drivers at Restrictor Plate tracks because of the uncertainty that comes with these races. There are still a lot of good options here, especially in the lower range.

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Logano is priced as the fifth highest NASCAR DFS driver this week. In Logano’s last seven races at Daytona he has two DNFs. If you exclude those two races, Logano has not finished worse than sixth. His teammate Brad Keselowski is often referred to as the top Restrictor Plate driver, but I would take Logano over him. Keselowski has failed to finish in four of the last five races at Daytona since winning in 2016. Logano has a good Driver Rating of 82.3 at Daytona since February 2017. One thing that tends to cap Logano’s NASCAR DFS upside is that he qualifies well at Daytona, starting no worse than 15th since 2015. If he slips a little in qualifying he will be my top pick.

Chase Elliott ($9,900)

Although Elliott has had similar luck to Keselowski at Daytona, he has finished much better at Talladega. Elliott won at Talladega earlier this year and finished third there once last year. Elliott will be highly owned in NASCAR DFS but will most likely be less owned than the two right above him, Keselowski and Logano. He also qualifies well at the site but if he starts outside the Top 15 he will be a very popular NASCAR DFS choice.

Denny Hamlin ($9,000)

Denny Hamlin has been great at Daytona and is arguably the best driver at the site. Hamlin had a Driver Rating of over 100 eight times since 2012, which is really impressive for this type of track. He had one DNF in 2018 and one in 2017 but those are his only two DNFs since 2013. Since 2013, Hamlin has seven Top 6 finishes and two wins. He has been one of the most consistent drivers there and has shown a great ability to avoid wrecks. Hamlin is a bargain at $9,000 and should be considered for all lineups. He also qualified 10th or worse seven of the last 10 races at Daytona and started 35th or worse three times. He has a great feel for passing at Daytona and should provide huge upside.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

This is normally the salary range you need to nail if you want to be in the money in NASCAR DFS come race day. There are a lot of great Restrictor Plate options in this range.

Aric Almirola ($8,400)

Almirola, like many other big names, has crashed at Daytona in the past couple years. The last two races at Daytona, Almirola finished 32nd and 27th. That said, he has ran well until trouble came his way. He has a Top 10 Driver Rating at Daytona since February of 2017 and has been good going all the way back to his days in the 43 car. In Almirola’s last nine races at Restrictor Plate Tracks (including Daytona 500 qualifying races), he has an Average Finish of 11.11 and a Driver Rating of 85.8, which is eighth best in the series in that span.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300)

Blaney has been one of the best under the radar Restrictor Plate drivers since he joined the Cup Series. Since February of 2017, Blaney has the third best Driver Rating in the series at Restrictor Plate tracks and is tops at Daytona (96.2). He has led the most Daytona laps over that same span with 142. Blaney’s Average Starting Position is 14.8, which shows he can race up to the front in a hurry and stay there to avoid trouble. Blaney is my top NASCAR DFS value pick pre-qualifying and should provide value as long as he does not qualify in the Top 5.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is widely known as a good Super Speedway driver and the numbers back it up. Stenhouse Jr. ranks fourth in Driver Rating at Daytona since February of 2017 and he has an Average Finish of 18.2. In that same span, he has led the second most laps behind only Blaney with 95. Stenhouse Jr. won this race in 2017 when he had a Driver Rating of over 100.

Low Salary ($6,900 and Lower)

There are a lot of very intriguing options in this range this week. Rostering one or even two of these guys will open up a lot of room for higher priced drivers.

Ryan Preece ($6,000)

Although his experience at Restrictor Plate tracks is limited, Preece has been good early in his Cup Career. He has raced once at each Daytona and Talladega and has finishes of third and eighth to show for it. He has ran all the laps and combined for a plus 40 place differential.

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

McDowell has always shown up ready to go at Daytona and has finished all but one race there since 2013. The race where he did crash (July 2018) was his best showing ever there, in which he led 20 laps and had a Driver Rating of 101.8. Six of his last seven races at Daytona ended with a Top 15 finish and four of those were Top 10s. McDowell is my favorite bargain NASCAR DFS driver pre-qualifying.

David Ragan ($5,600)

David Ragan has always been one of my favorite sleeper Restrictor Plate drivers. He seems to have a knack for running up front and even has a win to his credit in 2011. He finished sixth in 2017 in a race that he ran in the Top 10 the entire way and he was able to lead four laps.

Cornerstones

This is a tough week to find two guys to use here as qualifying means so much. We will try and find two guys who I don’t expect to be on the front row.

Ryan Blaney and Michael McDowell are both way underpriced and both struggle to qualify at Daytona. Blaney’s Average Starting Position of 14.8 and McDowell’s of 21.8 both leave a lot of room for positive Place Differential. Their recent Daytona Driver Ratings of first and seventh show they are gruesomely underpriced. These two should allow you to roster any big name you want in the high salary range as well.

Thank you for reading. You can join the Win Daily team by following the link here. This will give you access to all of the FREE content along with options to join our premium. Follow myself and Win Daily on Twitter at @thiel_boy and @windailydfs.

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Top NASCAR DFS Plays

Avoid

Wild Card NASCAR DFS (High Risk – High Reward)

Outlook

High Salary ($9,000+ on DraftKings)

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Chase Elliott ($9,900)

Denny Hamlin ($9,000)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Aric Almirola ($8,400)

Ryan Blaney ($9,300)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)

Low Salary ($6,900 and Lower)

Ryan Preece ($6,000)

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

David Ragan ($5,600)

Cornerstones

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