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Jason Day

PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at Liberty National

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup points
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field with lots on the line
The course: Liberty National (Rotating venue with Boston)
- Par 71: 7,410 yards – designed by Robert E. Cupp and Tom Kite
- Links-style except for greens – and right on the Hudson River in NJ/NY area
- Smaller but fast A-4 Bentgrass greens that really benefit guys who prefer that surface
- T2G efficiency required here
- Form seems to be important based on previous winners
- Over 31% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, but TOUR average is only around 23%
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (-30 at TPC Boston)
2019 Champ (@ Liberty National): Patrick Reed (-16) over Abraham Ancer (-15)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.

Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.

Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.

Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.

Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.

C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.

Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.

Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
- > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
- Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
- Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
- Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
- Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 156 golfers STACKED with talent
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Canceled in 2020
2019 champion: Max Homa (-15 over Joel Dahmen at -12)
The course: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, NC)
- Par 71: 7,521+ yards – the longest Par 71 on the PGA Tour
- Bermuda greens (Champion G12 Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed)
- Beast of a long, tough track with final three holes dubbed “The Green Mile”
- Bomb-and-gouge more in play this week, as longer hitters and good drivers seem to prevail
Rain in forecast before tourney days but mostly sunny skies during competition
Late Friday 10 mph gusts expected, which is common – but wind only getting to 13-15 on the Sunday forecast – so keep early Friday and Sunday in mind for showdowns
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity 175-200 & 200+, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!

Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.

Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.

Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.

Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.

Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.

Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Enormous, elite field of 154 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
No 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)
The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye design
- Par 72 (7,189 yards)
- Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf course
- Plays longer in March than it did in May
- Bermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialis
- Look for big scoring spreads like at Bay Hill
- Wind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill
6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.

Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.

Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.

Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.

More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie Hughes

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.

Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.

Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Workday Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Our weekly edition of PGA DFS picks is digging for gold at the WGC-Workday Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong field limited to 72 golfers (49 of the Top 50 OWGR in the field)
No Cut
2020 winner: Patrick Reed (-14)
The course: The Concession Golf Club (Bradenton, FL – Jack Nicklaus design)
- Par 72 (7,424 yards)
- New PGA Tour venue with no course history and tough rating (76.7)
- Lots of water and bunkers in play
- Bermuda greens and fairways
- Similar course layouts include Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, TPC Southwind, Doral and the Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village GC
Wind could play a factor this week
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – We’ve got loads of golfers priced above $9,500 this week, and in the $10K+ range I’m most interested in Rahm in all formats. His game translates well to all types of venues and his play is consistent enough that he just doesn’t need much course history to find the leaderboard. He’s tops in my mixed model and with no cut, he should be able to relax a bit more the first couple of days and let his ball-striking and overall game speak for itself.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800) – The X-Man excels in no-cut events and checks all the boxes in the focus stat categories. Both Rahm and Schauffele are decent bets for top 10 finishes here and while I will have shares of both Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, they aren’t my priorities this week. There may not be a better selection for a Top 5 finish than Xander this week, and that should be reflected in his ownership. If not, we can take advantage in large-field GPPs as well.

Rory McIlroy, (DK $10,400) – I’m a little bit concerned about his performance last week at the Genesis, where he lost strokes to the field T2G and on the putting surface. But if there’s a cure to his ills it’s a return to Florida where he dominates these types of venues and seems a lot more comfortable on Bermuda. There’s been talk that longer hitters will have an advantage here, and given his recent struggles McIlroy is a perfect contrarian GPP play at a small discount, since this could be the week he hoists a trophy again.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,900) – While there’s no professional course history at The Concession, Rahm, Schauffele and a much leaner Bryson all competed here in the 2015 NCAA Championship – which DeChambeau won. His game is a little different now but he seems to be fairly confident heading into this WGC event. As long as I don’t get cold feet before lock, I’ll probably have shares of him in large-field GPPs but the price seems fair given the risk.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,600) – If there’s a value play in the top tier, it’s probably Hatton, whose game is strong in just about every focus stat category (he’s No. 11 on my model). He performs well against stiff competition and the relative lack of familiarity with seeing his name every week could keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Justin Thomas (GPP), Tony Finau (GPP)

*UPDATE: I had Patrick Cantlay listed as an option to consider, but he has withdrawn.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,400) – The course will be a tough test for Hovland, but he should do well on the scoring holes this week and he’s No. 16 on my model. With three straight finishes in the top six, his game looks sharp these days and he doesn’t lose any points for lack of course experience. I’d like to be ahead of the field in big GPPs, and he’s on my short list for cash and single-entry tournaments.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,100) – He’s not an exciting pick, but he doesn’t make a lot of bogeys and this putter is tops in this field both overall and on Bermuda. If you’re looking in the direction of approach, short game and “thinking” your way around this course (over bombers), then Simpson provides decent value given his strengths.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,000) – Surprisingly, Morikawa fares better on Bermuda and overperforms on difficult courses, and his elite SG: APP numbers (No. 1 in the field) don’t suffer much on the similar courses we identified in the course bullets (No. 6 in the field). We know he struggles on the greens (he, Joaquin Niemann and Hideki Matsuyama are the worst putters in my model’s Top 20), but the lack of a cut (and the surface) might help him relax.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is easily my favorite play between $8,500 and $9K, and he’s No. 10 overall on my mixed model with solid performance at Florida/Nicklaus venues. This should be a course where he flourishes, and he’s undoubtedly rested and ready to post a Top 10 finish among these giants. Even if he’s popular in GPPs, I’m using him in my core.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500) – Fitzpatrick putts well pretty much everywhere, but Bermuda is his preferred surface. The lack of prowess off the tee is bit concerning in this star-studded field, but he could be an under-the-radar play and I’ll have some shares in GPPs.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,100) – Like Morikawa, Niemann is an excellent ball striker with solid approach and off-the-tee numbers – even among this stiff competition. His bugaboo is putting, and that may help contribute to a few too many three-putt bogeys and some lost strokes to the field. Still – he finished solo second at the no-cut Sentry Tournament of Champions and T2 at the Sony Open before a T43 last week at the Genesis, so the form is solid.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,000) – Sia likes Willie Z as your first-round leader, and that’s a pretty good call considering the impressive stamp he’s made so early in his PGA career. The fact that this value-laden rookie has already snuck into the Top 50 in the world and qualified for this event says a lot about his game, and like some of the other youngsters playing here this week, he doesn’t lose any points for lack of experience.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,900) – On the opposite end of the experience spectrum, we have the veteran South African – whose most recent finish was a T11 at the Waste Management Open a few weeks ago. Bermuda isn’t his favorite surface and he doesn’t pop for his performance on Florida or similar courses, but I just can’t count him out at this price point. He’s a competitive golfer in any field and his ownership should be well under 10%.

Also consider: Daniel Berger, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Justin Rose, Matthew Wolff (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,500) – The thing that stood out the most about Garcia (apart from the MC last week at the Genesis) is that he absolutely thrives on Florida courses. In fact, when I isolated SG:APP for the similar courses (identified in the preview bullets), he came out tops in the field. We know he’s a great ball striker who posts excellent SG:OTT numbers, and ball striking goes a long way in no-cut events.

Harris English (DK $7,500) – English hasn’t been playing well lately, but the price is just too low and he’s the only sub-$8K golfer who makes the top 20 of my mixed model this week. He won the last no-cut tournament he played (the Sentry) and there’s just no way I won’t have heavy shares of him in all formats. A great value play for both SE and cash, and a guy that will be party of my core for large-field GPPs.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – While we don’t really have course horses this week, Leishman pops in my model for the venue attributes that matter and he really overperforms on Bermuda. He might be popular for GPPs this week, but it’s not terrible chalk given his upside and value.

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,200) – Speaking of value, I’m right there with Sia’s interpretation of a DK misprice for Palmer this week. He’s the 36th most expensive golfer this week (middle of the 72-man pack) but he’s No. 25 on my model and he’s got much shorter odds to win than golfers priced $500 to $1,000 more than him. He’s far from the best putter in the field, but he’s worth a look in all formats.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,000) – Kisner’s only knock among our focus stats is SG:OTT, but he’s in the top 10 in SG:APP, top five in putting, and ranks No. 23 o my overall model – pretty amazing for a $7K golfer. Like Palmer, I think that he’s mispriced and I’ll be taking full advantage in all formats – even considering him for my single-entry GPP team. Kisner’s last no-cut event saw him finish T24 and while he hasn’t played since mid-January, I’m excited about his prospects in Florida.

Abraham Ancer (DK $6,800) – A T17 finish at the Sentry and T5 at the AMEX stick out as highlights among his last five starts, which included two missed cuts – something we don’t have to worry about this week. He probably won’t be a member of my core build (if I end up having one this week) but Ancer makes lots of sense as a final piece under $7K in GPPs.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700) – He’s been striking it well recently and we know he can putt – on just about any surface. I have concerns about how well his game will translate to such a difficult, unknown type of track, and his performance on similar courses isn’t all that exciting (No. 52 in the field). If we’re rostering Lanto, it’s for his talent and ability to get the putter going well over the course of a guaranteed four days.

More value golfers to consider: Bubba Watson (GPP), Carlos Ortiz, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Rasmus Hojgaard

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,400) – Hughes gets hot with his putter pretty frequently, and he’s another guy who could post a super low score on a difficult course given a few cracks at it. He’s far from a cash game play and I wouldn’t include him in my single-entry builds, but I large-field GPPs where we have to get a little creative, he’s a fine last piece at this price point.

Erik van Rooyen (DK $6,200) – EVR is the only guy under $6,500 who makes my model’s top 30, and if he can stay away from the big number this week and strike the ball well for four days, we could see him threaten the leaderboard by Sunday. We don’t have a cut looming over him, so hopefully he can stay focused and let his sound overall game take flight.

Additional punts: Cameron Champ, Brendan Todd (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am)

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 156 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)
The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
- PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041
- Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and Scottsdale
- No third course, no amateurs this year
- Poa annua greens
- Iron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens
- 6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger field
- Wind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)
Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.

Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.

Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.

Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick Taylor

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.

Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.

More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin Chappell

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.

Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.

Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: The Masters at Augusta National

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Reduced field of 93 golfers but all the big names – it is the Masters, after all
36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties & 10-stroke rule NOT in effect
Last year: Tiger Woods (-13)
The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross)
- Par 72: 7,475 yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Tournament is being played in November, so the weather (low-to-mid 70s) and course are different than the normal April event
- The Ryegrass overseeding requires constant watering in the fall, so it’ll be wetter than normal; there’s also rain/storms in the forecast most of the day Thursday
Still no “gallery” for this tournament
The defending champ (Tiger) is barely playing (and not playing well) and certainly doesn’t look 100 percent.
There’s a dude who can hit it nearly 400 yards in the field (Bryson)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,

Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) – If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.

Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.

Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.

Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.

JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.

Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Vivint Houston Open

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Vivint Houston open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: Lanto Griffin (-14 at different venue: Golf Club of Houston)
The course: Memorial Park GC (Houston, TX – Tom Doak redesign)
- Par 72: 7,432 yards
- Bermuda greens
- Brooks Koepka helped with redesign as PGA player consultant
- Parkland – grass slopes and contours make it similar to Augusta
- Second-shot course favoring accuracy/proximity
- Five Par 5s, Five Par 3s
- No course history
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – If we’re taking a bombers and birdie-makers approach this week (SG:OTT and BoB% are two of our focus stats), we’ve got to like DJ in this prep for Augusta even though his game has been a bit unpredictable the past year. He’s the field favorite and a guy who can separate himself quickly from the field – in either direction.

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – The course layout and design sets up well for a player like Finau, who’s been pretty consistent as a Top 10-type golfer but has lacked the ability to close. This could be the week he finally breaks through with another PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,800) – Any course with this many Par 5s should benefit Hovland, who’s excellent off the tee and seems to have worked out some of his late-summer struggles. He also provides a modest discount from the top few golfers.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – The Texas native’s stats off the tee and overall ball-striking have been elite this season, so most of how he finishes depends on his putter. There’s not a course he can’t manage, but the price among the top tier of golfers could keep some folks away – making him a solid GPP play.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – Another golfer with the game to flourish on this course, Im excels on Bermuda surfaces and is the ultimate grinder. If he can make some birdies this week and build some early momentum, he’ll be hard to keep out of the Top 15.

Adam Scott (DK $9,100) – Normally I’d consider Scott a better play in cash games and single-entry GPPs, but he’s making his return from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and is more of a risk to miss the cut than usual.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,600) – I’m always surprised how well Zach Johnson fares on longer courses, and this week is another such venue. There may be better value plays out there, but Johnson’s upside and cut-making consistency are undeniable.

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – Harman projects similarly to ZJ in this price range and has venue been more consistent this season, with eight straight finishes among the Top 40 and a neverending slew of made cuts. He makes for a fine cash game play.

Cameron Davis (DK $8,100) – Consider Davis a poor man’s Dustin Johnson, as he make a ton of birdies and can move the ball off the peg with the best of them. There’s oodles of value in Davis this week, though I imagine he’ll get popular at right around $8K.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,800) – Westwood has resurrected his career with some remarkably steady play this season on the European tour, and he finished T13 at the U.S. Open. I could see Westwood playing well the next couple weeks and smashing value at this bargain price.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,700) – Last week’s playoff loss to Brian Gay may haunt him, but Clark is a dynamic golfer who is playing well and fits the profile for this course. Now’s the time to stay aboard the ship – though we know it can go bad quickly for Wyndham and his bomb-and-gouge approach.

Also consider: Russell Henley (cash), Jason Day (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, James Hahn (GPP), Stewart Cink, Denny McCarthy (GPP), Erik Van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – Continuing with our theme of bombers and birdie-makers, I present the inimitable Sam Burns, who misses a cut once in a while but has Top 10 upside on a course like this. A worthwhile GPP play at a bargain price.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,400) – Speaking of cuts, we’ve seen Wise miss the weekend five times over his last nine tournaments, so I can’t advocate for him in cash games and might steer clear in single-entry. But if he can get in the Top 65 by Friday night, he’s a solid GPP option with Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $7,100) – Schenk is a consistent player tee-to-green who makes for a fine cash game play at just $7,100, but he may be worth considering in all formats on a course that rewards his strength stats – SG on Par 5s and BoB%.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,000) – The price for Straka this week is just way too low given how well he’s capable of playing. The scoring opportunities should be there this week for the Austrian, who can get red hot with the putter.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – NeSmith is another guy who can go low when the putter catches fire, but the price reflects his inconsistent play. With three straight made cuts and an October Top 10 at the Shriners (T8), he’s on my radar this week.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – Looking for “birdies in bunches” this week could lead you to consider McNealy, who excels on Bermuda. I’ll have shares in GPPs.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – I’ve had a hard time handicapping Homa this season, but he’s got the tee game to compete in this field and the price is way too low given his GPP upside.

More value golfers to consider: Keegan Bradley (GPP), Luke List, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Austin Cook (GPP), Tom Hoge, Charles Schwartzel (GPP), Troy Merritt (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Xinjun Zhang (DK $6,500) – He’s disappointed in his past two events, but Xinjun Zhang played well in Houston last season (T4), and the cheap price could make him a solid play despite the different venue.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,400) –Kizzire struggles with accuracy off the tee, but he’s a solid putter who could easily make value if he can hit some fairways this week. I’ll take a shot in a few large-field GPPs.

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,200) – I know Keith Mitchell is bad, but he’s usually pretty good off the tee (the last few tourneys notwithstanding) and he can putt. For damn near minimum salary we can use him in some “studs and scrubs” GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Hudson Swafford (GPP), Justin Harding, Will Gordon, John Huh, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at TPC Boston

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field
The course: TPC Boston
Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
Smaller-than-average greens
- Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
- First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs! All pricing is for DraftKings.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes...

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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