In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!
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Paul Casey (DK $10,500, FD $11,700) – We highlightedsome of the focus stats that help folks win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am,but making the cut and winning here requires a solid mental approach aided byan affable nature. Casey has the game to fit these courses and solid historyhere (second place in 2019, T8 in 2018) but is also a nice dude – which helpswhen you’re playing alongside so many amateurs. As always, the key to hissuccess will be his short game.
Jason Day (DK $10,300, FD $11,500) – Continuing in the nice guy category, Day has five straight Top 15s here with four of those finishes as Top 5s. He really wants to win here, and he’s got the attitude and game to make it happen. I have some concerns about his ailing back, and so should the majority of the DFS world, so we could see lower ownership than what you’d expect from a perennial contender like Day.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,700, FD $11,000) – Fitzpatrick might see low ownership in GPPs with his price among the bigger names, and I’d probably stay away in cash games since he can have some stinkers – but the 54-hole cut makes him one of my top choices as he’s been known to get hot and put together some very low rounds. I love his attitude and his ability to put bad rounds behind him, which should keep him in the mix at the AT&T this week.
Graeme McDowell (DK $9,200, FD $10,400) – He won last week in Saudi Arabia, and while I’m not going overboard on Dustin Johnson shares, playing G-Mac after a long flight doesn’t scare me as much and it does with DJ. The Portrush, Northern Ireland native has some history at Pebble Beach and he’s one of golf’s best ambassadors. Length is not an issue on these tracks, so deploy him in GPPs in the hopes that he gets hot with the flat stick.
Also consider: DustinJohnson, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, VictorHovland
Daniel Berger (DK $8,900, FD $10,300) – Berger is coming off a Top 10 at the WMPO and he finished with a T10 in his only appearance here in 2015. He’s expensive but a really good bet for a Top 20 finish.
Russell Knox (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – With no major holes in his game, Knox is a good fit for these courses and the format – though we’ll need at least one round where his putter gets hot for him to get in the Top 5.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500, FD $10,100) – Kisner’s history here is jumbled – with a couple missed cuts, a T28 last year and a Top 10 in 2017. But he’s an excellent ball striker, is quite strong on poa annua greens and registers inside the Top 20 on Par 4 efficiency 350-400. The MC at the Amex could keep his ownership low in GPPs.
Scott Piercy (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – I’m always interested in Piercy for the West Coast swing, and he’s trending up (55-20-10) the past three years here. He finished T6 last week and is a solid bet to make the 54-hole cut – even if he fades a bit on Sunday as he tends to do.
Scott Stallings (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – Stallings loves the event (14-7-3 from 2017-19) and his last missed cut was at the Houston Open. He’s not without risk, but he’s popping on all my models and he excels in SG: Approach and SG: ARG.
Kevin Streelman (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Streelman is another high-risk golfer and he’s really been struggling lately. Fortunately for him, he’s playing an event that has seen him finish 17-14-6-7 over the past four years, notching Top 10s in each of the past two tries. He’ll be in my mix of GPP plays.
Also consider: Sung Kang, Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin, Vaughn Taylor, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk
Brian Gay (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s way too cheap for his course history, and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays on shorter courses. He also shows up in my SG models (SG and putting) and his faults (SG: Off the Tee) shouldn’t hurt him here.
Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – Baddeley showed up in my models for the focus stats and I doubt anybody will be on him this week. A worthy golfer to toss into GPPs in one of the final slots.
Michael Thompson (DK $6,700, FD $8,200) – I like that he finished T10 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,500, FD $7,700) – Lebioda can make a bunch of birdies and is a decent ball-striker, but he’s essentially a feast-or-famine finisher that cracks the Top 25 or misses the cut. At this price, that kind of variance should be expected.
Si Woo Kim (DK $6,400, FD $7,500) – Kim finished T4 here last year alongside Jason Day and has been fighting back issues the past few weeks just like the Australian. If you’re looking for golfers under $6,500, you need to take some chances.
Seamus Power (DK $6,400, FD $7,000) – Speaking of taking chances, Power will see sub 2% ownership but did make the cut here in 2017, finishing 39th. He’s a true longshot to finish among the Top 25, so I’d only roll him out in multi-entry GPP at like 5-10 percent at most.
More value golfers forGPPs: Steve Stricker, Ted Potter, Luke Donald, Tyler DuncanD.J. Trahan, Padraig Harrington, Chris Stroud
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re finding you some prime selections for the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico, especially when it comes to winning GPPs!
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Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – I doubt El Tucan will be on his bag this year, but Kuchar seems to be ready to defend his title and take his lumps on social media because of last year’s controversy. It’s his season debut, but he’s one of the favorites and will make plenty of my builds.
Tony Finau (DK $10,600, FD $11,500) – Finau is an excellent driver of the golf ball, even with that abbreviated backswing, but sometimes struggles with accuracy – so this is a GPP pick only. If he can keep it in play and make some putts, there’s no reason he can’t win.
Charles Howell, III (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) – Along and accurate hitter, Howell checks all the boxes for this course and iscoming here in decent form. He’s 8-for-10 making the cut at Mayakoba with threetop-10s and another four top-20s and is an impressive 5-for-5 this season withtwo top-10s and another top-20. Fine for both cash and GPP despite the MC lasttime around here.
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Ancer is Mexico’s top golf talent, and he would love for this to be his first career win. The driving accuracy is there, and his form is solid, as he placed T4 in his WGC-HSBC Champions debut.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Scheffler is a top talent who led after an opening 62 before finishing T3 in Bermuda. He’s an excellent ball-striker who hits solid approaches, but I won’t be 100 percent as he’s making his El Camaleón debut.
LantoGriffin (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)– He’s thecurrent FedEx Cup points leader, and he’s finished no worse than a pair of T18sthis season. I worry a bit about his accuracy off the tee and the better fieldshe’ll be encountering, but he’s a GPP play you shouldn’t fade completely.
Also consider: Victor Hovland, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, AaronWise, Russell Knox
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900, FD$10,500) – Myfriends get on my case for playing him too much in the majors, but he’s a popularDFS target for his elite ball-striking. He’s got some good course history withfinishes of T10, T9, and solo 15th in three tries at El Camaleón. Moreof a GPP play, though he could get chalky on DK.
Chez Reavie (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) – The form hasn’t been great, but he’s 4-for-4 here with a 4th and a 14th, so I’m buying his skillset of accuracy and precision over power and loading up in GPPs. Plus, he’s a personal favorite and a cool who likes to tell gambling stories about Phil.
Pat Perez (DK $8,100, FD $9,600)– Helikes the course, as one of his three career wins came here when he triumphed in2016 by two strokes over Gary Woodland at 21-under, featuring a third-round 62.Mix in three other top 20s at El Camaleón (in seven total starts). A recent solo thirdat the Shriners and an affinity for Paspalum (he won at TPC Kuala Lumpur whenit was Paspalum), and you’ve got yourself an option.
Brian Gay (DK $7,900, FD $9,400) – He was excellent in Bermuda with a T3 – his third top 25 of the new season – and this is where he had his first win in 2008. Overall, he’s 9-for-9 here with four top-25s, and I just can’t fade the guy despite him being a chalky pick.
Brice Garnett (DK $7,600, FD$9,300) – The veteran ballstriker has a great record here (he’s 4-for-4 since 2014 with three top 10s, aT25 and a scoring average of 67.81) and he’s won on Paspalum at the CoralesPuntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018. I like the discount on DK andwill be using him in a handful of builds.
Harry Higgs (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) – The exciting young rookie got close at Bermuda, sharing the 36-hole lead and sitting by himself at the top of the 54-hole before finishing solo second, possibly because of too much napping. There’s a lot of reasons to roster him this week, his affinity for coastal tracks coming in along with solid form and upside.
Also consider: Scott Piercy, Harold Varner III,Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Carlos Ortiz
Ryan Armour (DK $7,200, FD $8,800) – A short hitter but one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, Armour hits fairways and finished solo 4th as a rookie here in 2007. Since then, he’s played well here, with a T21 last year, and he arrives in good form with a T23 in Houston and a T8 in Bermuda. The price is fair and Armour is a great course fit for cash or GPP.
J.J. Spaun (DK $6,700, FD $8,300) – Despite his solid course history, I don’t know if Spaun will be super popular this week because he usually isn’t very highly owned. In his first appearance as a rookie in 2016, he finished T28, and he’s added a T14 and a T3 since them posting a scoring average over his 12 rounds of 67.75. His form is poor, but this course can be an elixir for the wayward.
Calum Hill (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – There’s plenty tolike about this young Scottish lad, who finished 2nd in the Road to Mallorcastandings that rank Euro Tour hopefuls. The 25-year-old’s game worked out well onthe Euro Tour with three top 30s in each of his last three starts. The pricemakes him a solid value option in a week without too many of them.
Si Woo Kim (DK $7,400, FD $9,200) – Kim is 3-for-3 here with a T17 in 2015, a third place in 2017, and T26 (with Chez Reavie) last season. He hasn’t flashed much brilliance this season, but I like this layout as a springboard to some better form.
Brendan Todd (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Todd won at Bermuda and has an excellent record here. He’ll be chalky value pick because of his recent win, but I’ll have some shares given his penchant for low rounds. Let’s just hope he makes the cut!
Sepp Straka (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – I’ve fared well using Straka in DFS and his price remains relatively low. He’s making his debut at his event, but that hasn’t stopped folks before. Straka is accurate off the tee and has strong SG: T2G numbers, so I’ll give him a look at this price point.
More value golfers for GPPs: Patton Kizzire, Brian Stuard,Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Brown, C.T. Pan
Danny Lee (DK $8,300, FD $9,800) – Lee could popular this week since he finished second here last year and nabbed a second-place finish at the CJ CUP, so I’m not going to castigate DFS fans who check out game logs and course history – heck, I do it myself. I may have one or two shares of the Korean-born New Zealander in GPPs, but I’ll definitely be underweight on the field; Lee is an inconsistent [player who misses a lot of cuts and missed cut equity says that if he’s chalky, it might help to fade him.
Cameron Champ (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – An incredibly long hitter but one who’s not particularly accurate off the tee, his game isn’t suited well for the layout, and the price is still too high for me to use. Sorry, Champ.
Billy Horschel (DK $10,200, FD$11,300) – “He performs better as asleeper than a top play, and when you really need him to play well,he lets you down.” – Mark “Spades”Spada
Spades is really mellowing out with his rhetoric! I expected a lot of nasty remarks, but I agree with what he’s saying. Add in the fact that Billy Ho is the fifth most expensive player in the field on both sites and listed as No. 1 on the PGA Tour’s power rankings this week, and we have a fade I can get behind! I’ve had Horschel burn me multiple times when he’s getting lots of chalky action, and when I have no shares, he seems to explode. I’ll commit to exactly ONE lineup with Horschel to stay underweight and that’ll be it.
Abraham Ancer ($9,200)
Scottie Scheffler($9,100)
Emiliano Grillo($8,900)
Chez Reavie($8,500)
Si Woo Kim($7,400)
Sepp Straka($6,800)
Jason Day ($11,000)
Lanto Griffin($9,000)
Brian Gay($7,900)
Harry Higgs($7,500)
Brendan Todd($7,200)
Ryan Armour($7,200)
Charles HowellIII ($9,600)
Aaron Wise ($9,400)
Emiliano Grillo($8,900)
Harold VarnerIII ($7,900)
Xinjun Zhang($7,300)
Calum Hill($6,600)
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This week we’ll go over the Rocket Mortgage Classic from last week and get you ready for the upcoming 3M Open right here on WIN DAILY.
Raise your hand if you had Nate Lashley in your player pool. Don’t worry about it, no one did. DraftKings never added him, so it’s not your fault. Past him though, the top of the leaderboard was a mixed bag of players you may not have expected: Redman, Roach and Potter to name a few.
The Insight Sheet’s results were par (pun intended) for the industry average on the week. Out of the 24 players in my personal player pool, only 14 made the cut. It did include Top 25 players such as Danny Lee (3%), Sepp Straka (4%) and Patrick Reed (8%). This is the first week that my personal player pool did not include the winner (second place this week). We’ll look to right the ship at the new 3M Open.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71
Length: 7,468
Greens: Bent, Larger than tour average (Cannot find true yardage at this point)
Fairways: Wider than tour average (Some holes, 35 – 40 yards wide)
Architect: Arnold Palmer
Like last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the 3M Open is a brand new stop on the tour. The tournament will be held at the TPC Twin Cities course located north of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The venue was a 17-year staple on the Champions tour (2001 – 2018). For the last seven years on the senior tour TPC Twin Cities ranked first or second in birdies. Similar to last week, I fully expect the 3M Open to be a birdie fest.
With low scoring almost guaranteed, we want to look at courses with easy scoring layouts. The Top 10 in Strokes Gained Total and their collective DraftKings points for such layouts are displayed below.
Fairway width and location of hazards is a huge part of scoring. Golfers having the ability to choose where to land the ball instead of forcing a shot is crucial. This chart shows the Top 10 in SG: TOT and DK points for easy to hit fairways.
Putting will be vital for golfers to succeed this week at the 3M Open. Below are the Top 10 golfers in SG: Putting (bent grass) and their respective putting baselines.
This article was written before prices are available. Based off these three charts above though, I would take a serious look at Jason Day.
Below we’ll find the official scorecard from the PGA media guide.
With the anticipation of a low scoring affair, we’ll need to determine which holes to target for a birdie attempt. After reading Chris Hollander’s write up on Twitter, I agree with his assessment. Chris recognizes that holes 1, 4-6, 10, 12, 16 and 18 should all play below par this week. Four of them are Par 4’s with a distance of 400 – 450 yards (six on the course total). The remaining scoring holes are Par 5’s between the distance of 550 – 600 yards and one Par 3.
Golfers who put themselves in position to score DK points will be key to our player pools. For that measure, we’ll include Opportunity Gained and Strokes Gained Putting (bent grass).
The chart above shows the Top 10 ranked in the model with all of the categories listed. Day’s name once again pops up along with DeChambeau and Finau showing up several times.
With the 3M Open, at TPC Twin Cities, becoming a new stop for the PGA tour, drawing data was scarce. Last week with the unknown, I weighted my model to be very balanced, more so than normal. Unfortunately it did not have the greatest success. With similar conditions to last week I’ll be tilting my model to be more birdie/point heavy. Performing this action will hopefully provide a better player pool to choose from.
Course Setup:
Easy to score
Easy to hit fairways
Bent grass greens
Player efficiencies:
Opportunity gained
Par 4 scoring: 400 – 450 yards
Par 5 scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Strokes gained putting
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.
Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.
Stats source: FantasyNational
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