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Houston Texans

Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Chicago Bears take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Chicago Bears

Running Back

Houston only gave up 48 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Indianapolis Colts and a talented Jonathan Taylor. The clear number one back for the Bears is D’Andre Swift who they brought in during the offseason. He played in 70% of the Bear’s 56 offensive snaps with no other back having more than 20% of the snaps.

Despite playing the majority of snaps, Swift didn’t get to see many rushing attempts. He only had 10 attempts in his 39 snaps. With how bad the Bears looked in Week 1, I am not prioritizing any of their backs but the main one to target if you want one would be Swift. I can see the Bears using a bit more of Swift to ease the pressure on Caleb Williams as he didn’t look good against the Titans.

The only other two running backs that saw any work were Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer who each had two carries. I would not use either of them as they would need an injury to Swift or a huge run to have any value for fantasy.

Tier 1: D’Andre Swift

Tier 2: Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer

Wide Receiver

The Texans only gave up nine completions to Anthony Richardson, but those nine went for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Texan secondary gave up a 60 and 54-yard touchdown pass in their first game.

The Bears have two wide receivers questionable for Week 2. Keenan Allen is dealing with a heel injury and rookie Rome Odunze has a knee injury. Both seem to be leaning toward playing on Sunday Night according to reports. Allen’s availability will be huge for the Bears in this game. If he plays he has a great fantasy matchup against Texan slot corner Jalen Pitre. Allen lined up as the slot WR 61% of the time against the Titans and finished with .4 FP/RR, meanwhile Pitre gave up the most FP/RR with .45 against the Colts. If Allen is healthy he is the best wide receiver option for the Bears.

I like DJ Moore, but he is projected to be shadowed by Derek Stingley for most of the game. Stingley gave up only .21 FP/RR and 13.4% targets/RR which is the lowest of any Texan CB.

The Bears had two other wide receivers who ran routes during Week 1. One of them was Velus Jones Jr. who had more touches as a running back (2) than a receiver (1). The other was DeAndre Carter who had two targets for 1 reception and six yards. Neither played more than 23% of the Bear’s snaps so unless Allen and Odunze get ruled out, I don’t think either is great for showdown.

Tier 1: Keenan Allen

Tier 2: DJ Moore and Rome Odunze

Punts/Fades: Velus Jones Jr. and DeAndre Carter

Tight End

The Texans held the Colt’s tight ends to no receptions on only two targets. While that looks like the Texans are amazing against tight ends, it feels more like a one-time thing as Richardson only threw 19 passes and relied on his legs during the game.

In Week 1 the Bears used three tight ends, but only two saw a target. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett played at least 48% of the Bear’s snaps, and each saw a single target. While Everett saw seven more snaps than Kmet, I still prefer Kmet. He has been the Bear’s best tight end since 2021 seeing at least 90 targets in all but one season since becoming the starter. But at Everett’s price, he is still very much in play.

I want no Mercedes Lewis who was the third tight end as he saw no targets on his nine snaps.

Tier 1: Cole Kmet

Tier 2: Gerald Everett

Houston Texans

Running Back

Chicago gave up 103 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Tennessee Titans and the talented duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The clear number one back for the Texans is Joe Mixon who they brought in during the offseason. Mixon had a rushing attempt (30) on 53% of his snaps (57). The only other running back to take a handoff was Dameon Pierce who only had three attempts on nine snaps.

Mixon should have some success on Sunday Night against the Bear’s rush defense as they failed to stop Pollard and Spears throughout Week 1. With no other running back having the confidence of the HC based on Week 1, Mixon should be the running back for all the goal-line carries. He had five carries inside the opponents 10 yard line and scored on one of those rushing attempts.

Like the Chicago running backs, I don’t want much if any exposure to them as they can only be of value if Mixon goes down or they break off a huge run.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The Bears on paper, looked great against receivers last week as Will Levis only completed 19 passes for 127 yards. The Bears secondary held Levis to a 59% completion percentage and picked him off twice including the pick-six that won them the game. The Texans receiving core and CJ Stroud are a huge step up in talent compared to what Chicago saw last week.

The CB/WR matchups for this game should be Stefon Diggs against Kyler Gordon, Nico Collins against Jaylon Johnson, and Tank Dell vs Tyrique Stevenson. All three matchups should be fun to watch as the game goes along, but the biggest one for me is the Collins/Johnson battle. Johnson didn’t allow a reception last week, meanwhile, Collins led the Texans with eight targets in Week 1.

My lean for favorite WR for the Texans is Tank Dell. Dell saw the third most percentage of snaps of the three Texan main receivers but still saw seven targets which was only behind Collins. He finished Week 1 with .44 fantasy points per route ran. He gets the most favorable matchup of the three as Stevenson, while winning Defensive Player of the Week, gave up the most targets and fantasy points per route run.

The only other two Texan receivers who saw the field were Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. Both only played 12 snaps and of the two only Hutchinson saw any targets (2). Outside of a milly maker or one of the other 150max contests, I wouldn’t include even a player.

Tier 1: Tank Dell

Tier 2: Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs

Punt: Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods

Tight End

The Bears did a good job stopping the Titans two tight ends. Chig Okonkwo and Nick Vannett combined for four receptions and 26 yards, and Okonkwo scored a touchdown. But as I mentioned above with the wide receivers, the Texan’s offense is a stronger team than what the Bears saw with the Titans.

The main tight end for the Texans is Dalton Schultz. Schultz led the tight end room with 63 snaps played which was 80% of the Texans snaps. His backup Brevin Jordan played in 51% (40) of the snaps. My lead is of course Schultz since he is the main tight end but Jordan is in play as he saw only one less target than Schultz despite playing 23 fewer snaps. Also at Jordan’s price, he opens the door to get bigger named players.

The Texans had a third tight end that saw snaps in Week 1, Cade Stover. Stover is only a super punt play, but with his Ohio St connection with Stroud, he can maybe find his way onto the box score.

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2: Brevin Jordan

Punt: Cade Stover

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Caleb Williams, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: DJ Moore, D’Andre Switft, Cole Kmet

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Caleb Williams, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: D’Andre Switft, DJ Moore

DraftKings CPT Punt: Cole Kmet

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Joe Mixon
Tank Dell
CJ Stroud
Keenan Allen
Caleb Williams
Nico Collins
Stefon Diggs

Flex Rankings Tier 2:

D’Andre Swift
DJ Moore
Cole Kmet
Cairo Santos
Ka’imi Fairbairn
Dalton Schultz
Dameon Pierce
Rome Odunze
Brevin Jordan
Gerald Everett

Punts/Fadeable:

DeAndre Carter
Velus Jones Jr
Xavier Hutchinson
Robert Woods
Khalil Herbert
Cade Stover

Best Rules for the slate:

Play at least one QB
Play 1 Texan WR in every lineup
Both Kickers are in play
Not on the Bears Defense
Play Caleb Williams with Keenan Allen or Cole Kmet

Favorite prop for the game: Joe Mixon Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DK)

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

10 FREE Underdog Plays for Dec. 31

Tera Roberts 1 year ago

written by Tera Roberts

The Houston Texans offer some great lines to play. Tera is back for Week 17 to help you “Win Daily” with her Underdog picks.

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL Season Long: The Wire Report – Week 15 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of The Wire Report for the 2021 NFL season. In this article I’ll be highlighting some of the top players that should still be available in your season long leagues.

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

As week 15 should be the first week of the playoffs in many leagues, the waiver wires are almost bare of production players at this point. That said, there are a few out there that can help

Below are my top waiver wire targets:

Rashaad Penny – Running Back – Seattle Seahawks (8.6% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

What a week for Rashaad Penny. Penny finished up week 14 with 16 carries and 137 rushing. He also found the end zone twice. This now makes it back to back weeks where Penny had double digit carries. Heading into a matchup against the Rams in Week 15 Pete Carrol should start to lean on Penny even more, especially if he’s going to average more than 8.5 yards per carry like he did on Sunday.

Nico Collins – Wide Receiver – Houston Texans (1.2% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

Was this the breakout week for Nico Collins? Going into week 14 Collins hadn’t had more than 6 targets in any given week. On Sunday Mills targeted him 10 times and he was able to catch 5 of them for 69 yards. With the Texans season all but done and a week 15 matchup vs. the Jaguars, could the Texans finally give Collins a real look? I think they do and if you need a receiver this weekend, Collins should excel in an easy matchup.

Tyler Huntley – Quarterback – Baltimore Ravens (.3% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

This is 100% reliant on Lamar Jackson missing this weekend so you’ll need to monitor through the end of the week. Huntley actually looked like a better QB this weekend than Jackson. He ran better, threw better, he just doesn’t have the name recognition that Jackson has. Should Jackson miss the week 15 matchup vs. the Packers, Huntley should be able to fill in admirably and get you multiple stats.

Devanta Parker – Wide Receiver – Miami Dolphins (50.2% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

With a week 15 matchup vs. the New York Jets, I want to try to grab any pieces from the Dolphins offense as I can. Parker comes to the top of the list as he’s available in half of ESPN leagues. In his first game since week 8 against the Bills, Parker caught all 5 targets for 62 yards. While we would have loved to see more than just 5 targets out of him, my hope is that they wanted him to get his feet wet in his first game back and the looks will be there this week.

Ty Johnson – Running Back – New York Jets (26% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

Ty Johnson only had 6 carries this weekend, but he had we really coveted. Johnson was targeted 7 times this weekend. It was his most targets since week 10 vs. Buffalo and it was the third time this year he had at least 7 targets. With Elijah Moore on injured reserve there are more passes to go around and Johnson was a big beneficiary of it. Look for Johnson to play an important role in the Jets offense in Week 15.

Gabriel Davis – Wide Receiver – Buffalo Bills (2.5% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

This is another pickup that is 100% reliant on injury news. Should Emmanuel Sanders miss week 15 we have to love the spot for Davis. Once Sanders went down Davis took on a bigger role in the offense. Davis was targeted 8 times on Sunday and was able to coral 5 of them for 43 yards. Keep an eye on Sanders status throughout the week and if he’s ruled out, Davis makes for a great pickup.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

Week 3 DFS Sunday Night NFL Showdown: Packers at 49ers

Jason Mezrahi 4 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Sunday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: Please take a look at our optimizer if you are mass entering lineups!

Sunday Night NFL Showdown CAPTAIN / MVP candidates

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Sunday Night NFL Showdown Captain Player Pool:

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Jones
Davante Adams
Trey Sermon (lock in either captain or flex)
Deebo Samuel (best past catcher option on 49ers)
Brandon Aiyuk
George Kittle
Marqez Valdes-Scantling

Flex Player Pool:

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Jones
Davante Adams
Trey Sermon (lock in either captain or flex)
Deebo Samuel (best past catcher option on 49ers)
Jimmy Garoppolo
George Kittle
Brandon Aiyuk
Marqez Valdes-Scantling
Allen Lazard
AJ Dillon
Robbie Gould
Robert Tonyan
Ross Dwelley
Trent Sherfield
Jauan Jennings
Jacques Patrick
Kyle Juszczyk
Mohamed Sanu
Kerryon Johnson
Trenton Cannon
Randall Cobb
49ers D
Packers D

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow us on Twitter at @WinDailySpor ts and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 3 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Panthers at Texans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)

Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.

Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.

Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Christian McCaffrey
Sam Darnold
D.J. Moore
Brandin Cooks
Robby Anderson
Davis Mills
Mark Ingram
Panthers DST
Phillip Lindsay
Dan Arnold
David Johnson
Terrace Marshall, Jr.
Chris Conley
Jordan Akins
Brandon Zylstra
Zane Gonzalez
Joey Slye
Anthony Miller
Ian Thomas
Chuba Hubbard
Texans DST
Andre Roberts
Rex Burkhead

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Texans at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 5 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

Let’s say I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP. At least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS: MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)

Lower-risk Contrarian #1: DeShaun Watson (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)

High-upside Contrarian #2: Will Fuller V (DK $12,000, FD $10,500)

High-risk Contrarian #3: Randall Cobb (DK $6,300, FD $8,500)

DK-only Punts: Chiefs DST ($5,100) and Darrel Williams ($2,700)

With the Chiefs listed as 9-10 point favorites with a 31.75 implied team total in the season opener, we’re going to see Mahomes as MVP in the vast majority of FD lineups and a healthy portion on DK. I’m calling the Chiefs rookie RB “CEH” to avoid too much typing, and I’m going to have a fair share of him at the top spot as well. He’s not a bad anchor if we want to build out with the Chiefs DST, Mahomes and a couple Texans.

The path to a low-owned lottery ticket with plenty of upside comes with a great deal of risk if we use Watson, but I’ll have at least one in five GPP lineups that uses this strategy. We’ve seen Watson have many an explosive second half with the Texans trailing by multiple scores and that’s just what could happen here if the Chiefs D does its job in the first half and relaxes with a two or three-score lead in the fourth quarter.

Fuller, when healthy (or simple active) is a dangerous man. He’s my favorite Texans player and another possible candidate. Whether Brandin Cooks sits or not, we can give Randall Cobb a huge bump, as he’s always capable of big plays out of the slot and a TD or two. Hint: DeShaun Watson loves throwing to the slot…

On DK, it might pair to have some shares of the Chiefs DST in the MVP slot if we’re looking to get three more Chiefs and one of the two Johnsons (David or Duke) with Fuller.

The largest unknown in this game is probably how the Chiefs will utilize their RBs (CEH, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson), so exploring some different combinations there will be key. I like Darrel Williams a lot because he’s the Chiefs’ top pass-blocking back and short-yardage guy – and he’ll see a handful of touches/targets with the possibility of 8-10 if he gets a “hot hand.” At just $2,700 (just $1,800 in a utility slot), he could be a gamebreaker if he hits his 15-20 point upside.

Week 1 NFL DFS: Utility options

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value:

Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce (questionable, knee)
Will Fuller
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Chiefs DST
David Johnson
Mecole Hardman
Duke Johnson
Darrel Williams
Harrison Butker
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Kenny Stills
Jordan Akins
Ka’imi’ Fairbairn
Brandin Cooks (questionable, quad)
Daniel Fells
Texans DST

Good luck this week and don’t hesitate to get in Discord and pepper our writers with any question you may have!

Image Courtesy of Smashdown Sports News

5 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management 5 years ago

written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back with three more plays to finish the weekend off with a bang. Two NFL playoff picks and one easy NHL winner is going to make this a great Sunday!

Take Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 versus Houston Texans (3:05pm EST, Sunday 13 January 2020)

I’m taking the Chiefs today versus the Texans in, what most people assume will be, a shootout type of game. Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are two of the league’s youngest, most exciting quarterbacks, who tend to make magic happen. Houston should have Will Fuller for this game and Kansas City is healthy, so this should be a good game and I like Kansas City to really put it to the Texans, here’s why.

Houston, in my opinion, is the worst playoff team remaining. Houston had to rally from a 16-0 deficit to beat the offensively inept Bills and Houston doesn’t play well against above-average high scoring teams who beat up on opponents. Houston covered in just three of the fifteen games played against dominant teams who outscored opponents by eight or more points per game.

When the Texans beat Kansas City earlier this year, Pat Mahomes played on an injured foot and they were just banged up across the board. Still in that game, it came down to the end to get a winner. I understand that Will Fuller should be back for this game and that gives them some above-average downfield options for Watson but I don’t see that happening versus this stout Chiefs defense at home. In the Chiefs current six-game win streak, Kansas City allowed just 11.5 points per game. Houston doesn’t have that kind of defense and I see Kansas City taking advantage of it. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill should have a field day on this Houston secondary. I will give it to Houston I think they can slow down the run game (not stop it) so I see Mahomes throwing a little more than usual in this game and I like that versus Houston.

I can’t see Houston beating this Chiefs team twice in one year and, honestly, I think Kansas City really puts up some numbers on Houston. Lay the points with the Chiefs. Chiefs -9.5

7 Point Teaser Take Kansas -2.5 and Green Bay +3 ( 3:05pm EST, Sunday 13 January 2020)

There are a few important things to remember when playing a teaser. You need to get through some key numbers. Key numbers being 3,6,7 and in depending on the game 9,10,14 etc.. These are the numbers we usually see games end on. For these two games, we are getting Kansas City through 9,7,6,3 and Green Bay goes through 3 all the way to +3. The Green Bay vs Seattle game calls for snow, cold and wind, so I can see this ending as a 3 point game either way, so I will definitely take the slightly above-average Green Bay team with a field goal. As for Kansas City, I see them winning that game by more than a touchdown so I will for sure take them down to -2.5 so even winning by a field goal gets us the win.

This is my best teaser play of the weekend and I really think both of these teams win and cover the game spread so teasing them by a touchdown, is the way to go for me.

Take Tampa Bay in regulation -137 versus New Jersey Devils ( 7:00pm EST, Sunday 13 January 2020)

I’m going back to the well with Tampa Bay to win again in regulation. They face off against the bottom feeding Devils, who are one of the NHL’s worst teams at home. Both of them are coming off a day’s rest but one is better equipped to destroy teams and I think we know that’s Tampa Bay.

The Devils won just six home games this year out of the 22 they played. They score an average of just 2.66 goals per game and that won’t work against the above-average scoring Tampa Bay does. Their defense is even worse. They allow over 3.5 goals per game (3.64) and with Tampa Bay scoring above that on average per game, the Devils are in trouble. They also play just awful versus Tampa Bay. In the last ten games they played against each other, they won just two. The last win against the Lightning was in April of 2018, so it has been a long time since New Jersey beat Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay continues to roll. They are 27-13-4 overall and won 13 of their 21 away games, with only two going to overtime. Overall, Tampa Bay went to overtime four times this year out of the 44 games they played. Their above average defense keeps teams to under 3 goals per game (2.89) and with their high scoring offense, teams tend to struggle to keep up.

Take Tampa Bay to beat up on the Devils all game and win in regulation. Tampa Bay -137 to win in regulation.

( For this play to win, Tampa Bay must win in the first 60 minutes of the game. If the game goes to overtime, we have a loser.)

5 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management 5 years ago

written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back with four plays that will knock your socks off. Two NHL, one NBA, and one play on the first game of the NFL’s Wild Card Playoff weekend. These are the kind of plays that make you a winner.

Take Los Angeles Clippers -11 versus Memphis Grizzlies ( 3:30 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

The Grizzlies travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. The Clippers are one of the league’s best home teams straight up and against the spread. When the Clippers play at home they are really tough to beat. The Clippers won fifteen of the eighteen games they played and they covered the spread in twelve of them. They score an average of almost 117 points per game at home (116.67 ppg) while allowing just 105.72 ppg to visitors. Paul George is likely out for this game and that doesn’t bother me. Kawhi Leonard is more than capable of leading this team himself as Memphis is one of the worst road teams in the NBA.

Memphis was a bad team all year. They dealt with multiple injuries already this season and, while the team is slowly coming back together, the Clippers are not the team to turn the corner on. The Grizzlies only won six of the sixteen road games they played this year, covering in seven of them. Their defense is ranked twenty-fifth in the league in points allowed when playing on the road, allowing 115.19 points per game. Memphis allows teams to shoot almost 50% from the field (46.36%) and that’s bad news as the Clippers are an above-average scoring team at home. The Clippers have a 46.12% field goal percentage and make 35.87% of their three-point attempts.

Memphis is not the team that will give the Clippers a run for their money. Not only do the Clippers cover the spread 66% of the time when playing at home but have covered in eleven of seventeen games versus teams who win less than 45% of their games. Grab this line soon, as it opened with the Clippers as ten-point favorites and it has already moved up to eleven and I can only see it to continue to go up.

Take Buffalo Bills +3 versus Houston Texans ( 4:35 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

This Wild Card match-up is the first game of the NFL playoffs this season. Buffalo travels to Houston as three-point underdogs where Houston covered, just once, as a home favorite in the last seven games played when they were favored.

Houston had above average moments this year, so don’t get me wrong when I say they don’t cover the spread at home. It’s just a fact! Houston was an on-again, off-again respectable offense but that’s when they were healthy and, right now, they are not. Wide receiver Will Fuller is a long shot to play today and he changes the offense when he is on the field. He is the Texans deep threat and deep plays are a big part of their offense. When Fuller is on the field quarterback Deshaun Watson’s deep pass completion percentage goes from 34.3% to 43.2% and that really opens up the passing game. Overall, their offense is an above-average offense ranked thirteenth in the league in scoring, fifteenth in passing and twelfth in rushing but they are taking on one of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo. I see that being a major problem for them. It doesn’t help that Houston ranks in the bottom third of the league in rushing and passing defense. While this is Josh Allen’s first playoff game, I see him being able to take advantage of their weak defense (yes, even though J.J Watt is back).

Buffalo’s team played above average all year, especially on defense. The Buffalo defense ranked second in the league in points allowed, allowing just an average of 16.19 points a game. They hold teams under 200 yards passing per game (195.13 yards) and 103.13 yards rushing per game. Buffalo’s team is built to control the clock and keep Houston off the field. They have the better defense and, if Josh Allen can take advantage of a weak Houston defense, I think he and wide receiver, Jon Brown, will have a field day. Bill’s running back, Devin Singletary, progressed nicely as a rookie and, if Buffalo can get the lead, I see them using Singletary to keep Watson and the Houston offense off the field.

I think Buffalo is the better team here and that they cover this line. They are arguably coached way better than Houston this year. Coach Sean McDermott turned Josh Allen into an NFL quarterback! With the Houston passing game banged up, I think they struggle to not only move the ball but score points. I really think Buffalo gets the outright win here but I’ll take the points just in case. Take Buffalo plus three points.

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes YES-Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league having goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Flyers have had goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games in 25 of the 34 played, which is quite above average at 73.5% of the time. When Philadelphia goes on the road, a goal is scored in the first ten minutes in over 85% of their games. Arizona, too, has an above-average amount of goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Coyotes have had at least one goal scored in the first ten minutes in 25 out of the 42 games played, which is good for 59.5% of the time. The Coyotes tend to play faster and more aggressive at home versus the Flyers. The Flyers play faster and more aggressive when on the road versus Arizona. The total hit the over in six of the last seven games when Philadelphia traveled to Arizona to play. The way these two teams have been playing, I do not see this being any different. Take YES- Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122.

(For this bet to win, either team must score a goal in the first ten minutes of the game. If the game reaches ten minutes and one second without a goal, we have a loser.)

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes OVER 5.5 Goals -108 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

There are just too many stats pointed towards the over in this game. Philly went over the total in five of their last six road games and in five of their last seven games overall. The Flyers went over the total in six of the last seven versus Arizona when playing them on the road. Arizona is at home in this game and they score an above-average amount of goals when at home. When the Coyotes are at home, they have gone over the total in eight of their last ten games, averaging just about three goals per game (2.9 gpg). This is good news for Arizona as Philadelphia allows almost four goals per game (3.73 gpg) when playing on the road.

These two teams play each other tough and when they meet there are usually a lot of goals. The combined average score between these two teams in the last ten games played versus each other is 6.4 goals. The total today is 5.5, I’m taking the over.

5 years ago 0 comments

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Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management 5 years ago

written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is giving you three plays to end the NFL regular season with. These are above average plays that will stuff those pockets one more time to end the regular season with a bang!

Take Kansas City – 9.5 vs LA Chargers (1:00 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)

Well, we did it, we made it through the regular season as today is the last regular season Sunday. We’re a little late to the party with this line as it opened at Kansas City -6.5 versus the Chargers but I’m not concerned. Kansas City has been an above-average offense this year ranking in the top ten in touchdowns per game (5th), yards per game (4th), first downs per game (5th), yards per play (3rd) and that spells trouble for the Chargers. Kansas City can now lean on their defense to help win games. Most of the year, the Chief’s defense was a real liability. Bad teams were able to have an above-average showing on offense when playing Kansas City. Since the Chiefs played the Chargers in Mexico City, their defense turned totally turned around.

On the other side, we have the Chargers. This is a team with so much potential that just can not seem to put things together to be successful. They are coming into this game with nothing to play for and after rushing for just 19 yards last week, I believe they have just given up. Like I said before, the Chargers have nothing to play for in this game and have won just once in their last ten games. With the Chargers offensive woes, I just can’t see them scoring on the above-average defense of Kansas City which has allowed just 31 points in their last four games combined.

Kansas City needs to win this game to secure their playoff position and the Chargers are just waiting for the game to end. I think the Chiefs can name the score here. Kansas City covers the number, the lay points (-9.5)

Take Pittsburgh vs Baltimore UNDER 37 (1:00 pm, Sunday 29 December 2019)

This could have been the most exciting game of the week but now I expect it to be the slowest, most boring game of the year. The Steelers come into this game with Duck Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph on IR. Since Mason Rudolph became quarterback, the Steelers’ offense took a nosedive. Now with Hodges behind the wheel, it’s even worse. In the last seven games, the Steelers only scored more than 17 points twice. They rank 26th in points per game, averaging just 18.6 points per game for the year. They rank 30th in total yards per game averaging 284 ypg and, while this is a “must-win” game for them, it doesn’t mean that they will. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in nine out of the last 10 games played this year, including the last seven in a row.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has their number one seed locked up and have nothing to play for in this game. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he is sitting his starters including quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Mark Ingram II, and tight end Mark Andrews. So basically, all of the players who score for the Ravens will not be playing. The Ravens will be starting Ronald Griffin III, also known as RG3, and he’s not above-average or even an average quarterback. RG3 hasn’t started a game since 2016 and, in his last season as a starter, he only won one game out of the five he played before getting a season-ending injury. Baltimore will have some starters in on defense and they’ve been playing above average all year. Baltimore allows the fifth-fewest yards per game allowing an average of just 309.4 yards per game (Pittsburgh is fourth allowing 304.1 ypg) and I see them trying to play spoiler, this is still Baltimore versus Pittsburgh.

I see very few points in this game. I think Coach Harbaugh will just run the ball and try to end the game and with defense hassling Hodges the whole time. Pittsburgh needs this game, they will be playing hard regardless of what Baltimore does but that doesn’t mean they are suddenly a good team. Take UNDER 37 in what should be a slow, low scoring game.

Take Tennessee -7 verse Houston ( 4:25 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)

This is another game that should be exciting but has “blow out” written all over it. Tennessee has been above average across the board on offense since quarterback Ryan Tannehill took over. They rank fifteenth in yards per game (355.9), fourth in yards per play (6), fourth in touchdowns per game (3.3), and sixth in rush yards per game (131.9). Ryan Tannehill is throwing for 224 yards per game to go with Derrick Henry’s (and a few others) 131.9 yards rushing per game. They are a freight train in the NFL and become a real threat to go deep into the playoffs. The Titans covered six out of their last ten games and won seven of their last ten games played in December.

Houston, too, is a great above-average, offensive-minded team this year. Ranked 11th in points per game (24.3), quarterback Deshaun Watson played great this year throwing for an average of 239.4 ypg. Watson had 26 touchdowns,12 interceptions and isn’t playing in this game. Initially, Coach Bill O’Brien said he would play his starters before reneging on his plans and announced he would rest his starters. I don’t put any stock into the Houston backups, especially AJ McCarron as the quarterback.

Tennessee needs this game to lock up their playoff spot and I see them getting a double-digit win here. I think they would have covered this number with the Houston starters in. Tennessee has been above average, even great at times this year and it will continue today, lay the points (-7).

5 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Sunday Night Showdown Preview with DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

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Week 13 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones took down the Week 8 Monday Night Showdown which is the fourth time he has won it the past five contests.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here

I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me, I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys.

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary.

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.

The NFL DFS Week 13 Sunday Night Showdown Picks

MVP: Julian Edelman ($13,000FD) I like him better on DK because of the PPR structure. He gets double-digit targets a game and if he breaks 100 yards and gets in the end zone he is your MVP.

Pivot 1: Tom Brady ($14,500 FD) I prefer to target Houston through the air. Brady has looked mediocre this season but he pops ever once in a while. He will be ready.

Pivot 2: Sony Michel ($11,000 FD) This is basically a hedge against the Pats passing game.

Note: Deshaun Watson ($15,500) The Houston offense is more reliable because they have fewer options and it is not as random as the Patriots. However I think they struggle tonight and the Patriots get the W. Watson is a run threat and a passing threat so he could have a big game, however, he is the most expensive guy on the board. I will have a few Watson MVPs, but more Pats.

Punt: Will Fuller ($12,500 FD) The Patriots will probably double cover Hopkins, which leaves more opportunity for Fuller. I tend to lean toward the WR2 against the Pats, and Will Fuller is one of my favorite second options in NFL DFS.

Flex Options:

DeAndre Hopkins ($14,500 FD) I don’t like WR1 against the Pats, but the volume and opportunity should be there. Better play on DK. I don’t think you HAVE to have him.
Mohamed Sanu ($10,000 FD) WR2 on Patriots
Darren Fells ($6,000 FD) Way too cheap, and will be utilized more this game with difficult deep coverage on the Texans WR core.
Phillip Dorsett ($8,000 FD) WR3 and looks to be healthy
Duke Johnson ($7,500 FD) Better play on DK, should be used as much, or more, than usual in pass game tonight.
Kenny Stills ($6,500 FD) Underpriced and I think he gets more looks tonight with Hopkins being blanketed
OUT Nick Folk ($9,000 FD) Pats kicker
Carlos Hyde ($11,000 FD) The Texans will want to use Hyde to keep Brady off the field, I just don’t think it works and they are forced to abandon him
James White ($10,500 FD) Boom or bust, Lower owned because of price tag and more busting than booming.
Ka’imi Fairbairn ($9,500 FD) Texans kicker
K’Neal Harry ($8,000 FD) He has come on strong lately, however, I view him as WR4 in this offense now that they are healthy,
Ben Watson ($7,000 FD) need him to score

Punts: Unless you are making multiple lines, use the guys listed above.

Rex Burkhead ($7,000 FD) he will get a handful of touches, if he gets in the end zone he pays off
Jordan Akins ($6,500 FD) Texans TE 2. I don’t want more than one TE from Houston. Should get a few targets.
KeKe Coutree ($6,500 FD) Make sure he is active if he is, he is a deep punt. Last week he was a healthy scratch.
Brandon Bolden ($5,000 FD) You never know with the Patriots.
Matt LaCosse ($5,000 FD) If I have 150 lineups I’ll put him on one.

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Sunday Night NFL Showdown CAPTAIN / MVP candidates

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Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 1 NFL DFS: MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 1 NFL DFS: Utility options

The NFL DFS Week 13 Sunday Night Showdown Picks

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