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Houston Texans

Week 8 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Week 8 DFS QB Picks gives us some odd names to consider in a week of odd matchups. The main slate of games means we are denied Redskins-Vikings (Thursday night), Packers-Chiefs (Sunday night) and the epic Ryan Fitzpatrick v. Mason Rudolph clash (Dolphins-Steelers) on Monday night.

The bye week means no Lamar Jackson (Ravens) nor Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

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Week 8 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA @ ATL

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,600)

Yes, he’s expensive, but he’s second only to Deshaun Watson in Fantasy points per game at DraftKings (25.4) and gets the delicious matchup against a Falcons defense that allows the most Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. In a dome, no less.

Wilson is fifth in both average depth per target (9.6) and air yards per pass completion (7.8 yards). Keep in mind the Falcons have the fifth-worst Fantasy defense against opposing receivers, giving up a 77.7% completion rate and 1.4 TDs per game. This is one case where the high investment reaps monster returns.

2) Teddy Bridgewater, NO vs. ARI

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

The question hovering over Bridgewater is whether the Saints activate Drew Brees in time for this start. If not, I love the prospects of Bridgewater putting up numbers beyond his game management-like totals, although 281 yards and two scores on the road against the Bears isn’t exactly Bob Griese’s Super Bowl totals.

Bridgewater isn’t known for his running skills, but this might be the week he offers the added bonus of a rushing TD. Not only are the Cardinals the fourth-worst defense against opposing quarterbacks, they also help/hurt their cause by allowing 27.9 yards per game on the ground to passers. Brees is returning sooner or later, but I’m thinking it won’t be Week 8, so run with Bridgewater.

3) Josh Allen, BUF vs. PHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

It’s Allen’s turn to pad his Fantasy numbers against the Eagles, who have played a lot worse than the ranking of 21st they currently own against opposing quarterbacks. Philly is giving up 287.9 yards and two touchdowns per game, numbers that would be higher if you took away the gimme that was the Jets. That the Eagles also have the worst Fantasy defense against the opposition’s wide receivers all but makes Allen and John Brown a dreamy pair in Week 8.

The Eagles did allow a rushing touchdown to Dak Prescott on Sunday night, which only enhances Allen’s upside. My bet is there’s a season-high coming with Allen, who should easily eclipse his current season-best of 254 yards passing.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,400)

Similar to Wilson in that he’s going to be costly, Watson is also in a can’t avoid matchup at home taking on a Raiders defense that gave up five touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers in Week 7. Rodgers also scored a rushing touchdown, something that’s right down Watson’s alley, as he remains on pace to account for double-digit rushing scores.

Oakland is the third-worst defense when it comes to slowing down opposing QBs. Although Watson’s home/road splits are more road friendly, I’ll take him at NRG Stadium. He’s sixth in pass yards after the catch (890), a total that could be hampered by the loss of WR Will Fuller.

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Week 8 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. NYG

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

Stafford is third in the league with average depth of target of 10.3, one of only three QBs (Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) over 10 yards per ADOT. The Giants are a modest 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, but with RB Kerryon Johnson likely to miss this game, count on Stafford to approach 35-40 attempts.

2) Jared Goff, LAR vs. CIN

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,000)

We are born-again believers of Goff, who will get another favorable matchup versus a Bengals team that is ninth-worst against opposing quarterbacks. To their credit, the Bengals give up just 1.3 TD passes per game but their 50.3 rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks drag their overall numbers down. Goff is one of two QBs who have been blitzed at least 100 times (oddly enough, he’ll be facing Andy Dalton, who happens to be the other QB).

3) Tom Brady, NE vs. CLE

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,900)

In a Sentence: Fifth with 1,122 air yards, those numbers will go higher the addition of WR Mohamed Sanu.

4) Derek Carr, OAK @ HOU

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Season-best 10.1 yards per attempt last week, Carr should equal — if not exceed — against the Texans, who have the fifth-worst Fantasy defense against QBs.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI @ BUF

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Now sixth in air yards per pass completion, Wentz will likely find himself in catch-up mode, so watch the numbers pile up in vain.

6) Kyler Murray, ARI @ NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Boom-bust play, yet I like the chances of boom if WR Christian Kirk is healthy and able to stretch a Saints D ranked 20th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers.

7) Gardner Minshew II, JAX vs. NYJ

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: His two best Fantasy games this season have come when he’s averaged better than eight yards per attempt.

8) Philip Rivers, LAC @ CHI

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

In a Sentence: Has averaged at least 23.62 FanDuel points in each of his previous three road games.

9) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. DEN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,500)

In a Sentence: Three straight games of at least 23.65 FanDuel points at home.

10) Andy Dalton, CIN @ LAR

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Squirt gun production from the running game means Dalton will continue his stretch of at least 36 pass attempts, which happens to be his low water mark for 2019.

Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. TB

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Buccaneers allow 318.5 passing yards per game, and Tannehill did make the Titans receivers look good in the win over the Chargers…

2) Daniel Jones, NYG @ DET

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,000)

In a Sentence: I’ll buy into the fact he’ll produce due to RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram being a week healthier.

3) Jameis Winston, TB @ TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Turnovers aside (it was one bad game), Winston has averaged at least seven yards per attempt in each of his last five games.

4) Kyle Allen, CAR @ SF

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

In a Sentence: Has yet to throw an INT, but the 224.5 passing yards per game will have to eventually come up to keep Cam Newton at bay.

5) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. CAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: One game of better than 20 Fantasy points this season.

5 years ago 0 comment

Cash with Flash Best Bets: NFL Sunday!

5 years ago

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Cash withthe Flash Best Bets had a forgettable Saturday and one where we won’t betalking about it other than to say we’ve had better days. Days like our Saturdayalso remind me of something I heard years ago on a Las Vegas sports betting TVshow.Never get toohigh or too low because what’s done is done...

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 7 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Perhaps the Week 7 DFS QB Picks will be more fruitful than last week, especially for those who got burned by Patrick Mahomes. There’s also us darned fools who underestimated Kirk Cousins (but didn’t call him a “weak link”), and for those who went with Jared Goff, well, we told ya.

As usual, the main slate’s the focus, so nuts to Chiefs-Broncos (Thursday night), Eagles-Cowboys (Sunday night) and Patriots-Jets (Monday night). The bye week also means no Browns, Buccaneers (Thank God), Panthers and Steelers.

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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. LAR

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,900)

One could make a case of putting Ryan ahead of Watson, but Ryan isn’t remotely close to being the running threat that Watson is. Still, Ryan leads the league in both actual (2,011) and air (1,233) yards and will have a chance to light up a Rams defense that may not be up to the task of playing a track meet-style of contest that Atlanta will attempt to force.

The Rams are allowing 11.6 yards per catch, a total that could go higher now that Austin Hooper is a legit TE1 that can open the field for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, two of the best run after the catch receivers in the game. Ryan is a still a value play, especially for someone attempting 43 passes per contest. You can’t be faulted for going with Ryan instead of Watson and using the savings elsewhere.

2) Kyler Murray, ARI @ NYG

DK ($6,700), FD ($7,700)

The Giants are 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this a solid play on the undervalued Murray. He’s progressed over the past two weeks, completing 68.1% of his passes while raising his rating from 78.8 to 109.1 in October. The O-line is showing considerable improvement, as Murray has been sacked just one in his last 69 attempts.

Murray is now in the Top 10 in air yards (eighth, 934) and if Christian Kirk returns soon, he’ll go higher. Momentum is on Murray’s side and he’s worth the play with his current value.

3) Gardner Minshew II, JAC @ CIN

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)

A bigger bargain than Murray, Minshew will be under the radar because of his tepid performance against a suspect Saints secondary last week. My only concern here is that with the Bengals ranked dead last in run defense, this could open the door for a monster afternoon for Leonard Fournette.

Minshew doesn’t do anything spectacular, yet he does have a 9-2 TD:INT margin and a lower bad throw completion rate (16.5%) than the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco. Even if he gets 25-28 attempts, he’ll be efficient enough to rack up points.

4) Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

There’s plenty of work to make Allen Fantasy-viable on a consistent basis, but I like the fact he’s 27th in bad throw percentage at 14.1%. Allen is 12th in average depth of target at 8.7 and I’m enthused about the prospects of former CFL All-Star Duke Williams becoming more involved in the offense. The Dolphins are very QB-friendly, so take advantage of the one time Allen appears here.

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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Lamar Jackson, BAL @ SEA

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,400)

With each week, Jackson falls down the rankings in bad throw percentage, and that’s a good thing. The Seahawks allow 277.8 passing yards per contest, making Jackson’s 9.4 average depth per target more tempting to use. He finally had that game rushing against the Bengals, and while it’s too much (perhaps) to expect a similar effort, let’s be mindful of the fact that Seattle does allow 4.7 yards per carry.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU @ IND

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,300)

Watson is on pace to account for 43 touchdowns, including 11 on the ground. That alone puts him in this category, but as good as he was in September, he’s downright lethal in October. He’s completed a staggering 77.3% of his passes with a 9.4 yards per attempt while accounting for eight scores (two rushing).

Sixth in average depth of target (9.6), Watson gets a Colts defense that 22 completions, 260 yards and two touchdowns per game. Indy must also be mindful that Watson averages 7.9 yards per scramble and that we haven’t seen a monster game from DeAndre Hopkins. Yet.

3) Jared Goff, LAR @ ATL

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

The fleas from the dog Goff had on Sunday will linger for some, but it’s indoors and the Falcons’ secondary has let Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray look Canton-worthy the past two weeks. Atlanta has the third-worst defense against QBs Fantasy-wise, and if Goff can survive the Falcons blitzing him to no end (opponents average more than 14 blitzes per game on him), he has a chance to rebound nicely.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN @ DET

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

To hell with ball control. Let Cousins fling the damn ball, because it’s working. He’s gone from an average of 7.4 yards per attempt in September to 11.4 YPA in his two October games while completing 78.6% of his passes. Cousins is now in the Top 10 in air yards per pass attempt (4.4) after languishing in the mid 3s last month. The Lions allow 291.6 passing yards per game but are limiting passers to 1.2 TD tosses per. He’ll get the yards but I also think he’ll get the TDs, especially if they get TE Kyle Rudolph back into the flow.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. BAL

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

Unlike many, I’m not enamored with this matchup. Yes, the Ravens are 29th overall against the pass. However, they’re 10th overall in Fantasy because they don’t allow touchdowns. B-More is allowing a TD pass per game on average, and QBs are averaging a mere 7.3 yards on the ground. Wilson is going to miss TE Will Dissly (Achilles, done for 2019), especially near the red zone, so it’s going to come down to whether WRs Jaron Brown and DK.Metcalf can fill in from the 4-6 targets per game that were going to Dissly.

6) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. OAK

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,600)

In a Sentence: Everything hinges on Davante Adams’ toe.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. HOU

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,300)

In a Sentence: For all the giddy feelings about the Texans following their win over the Chiefs, the defense is still 27th in Fantasy against opposing QBs.

8) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. MIN

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,300)

In a Sentence: Only Jameis Winston has a better air yards per pass completion mark than Stafford’s 8.2.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC at TEN

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,600)

In a Sentence: He’s second to Patrick Mahomes in passing yards after the catch (825).

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ WAS

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

In a Sentence: The Redskins allow 2.3 TD passes per game, and we have yet to see a monster game from Garoppolo….just sayin’.

Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,200)

In a Sentence: The Cardinals are the worst Fantasy defense against opposing QBs, making Jones an interesting punt who becomes very intriguing if Evan Engram is available.

2) Teddy Bridgewater, NO @ CHI

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,000)

In a Sentence: The Bears allow 0.8 TD passes per game; if Bridgewater is the answer here, I sure as hell don’t want to know the question.

3) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. JAX

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: On average, Dalton is blitzed 16.1 times per game, which means you may need a spatula to scrape him off the field.

4) Case Keenum, WAS vs. SF

DK ($4,600), FD ($6,500)

In a Sentence: I’d put good money that you’ll see Dwayne Haskins at some point.

5) Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA @ BUF

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)

In a Sentence: The Bills are one of three teams (Patriots, 49ers) allowing fewer than 10 Fantasy points per game against opposing passers, so good luck with that, Ryan.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Sports Betting Premium

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: NFL Sunday!

5 years ago

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Cash with the Flash Best Bets had a tough Saturday across the board. It was a weird day and we’re ready for NFL Sunday football. It will be a great way to forget about a terrible week and a good way to kick back and relax as Cash with the Flash Best Bets prepares for a hopefully much better week ahe...

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Six

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Five was insanely high scoring – probably the highest I’ve ever seen. Hopefully you checked out the stacks in last week’s post and got your NFL DFS GPP lineups across the pay-line.

It’s another excellent week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out our Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. But, lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Six.

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If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (51)

Both of these defenses are historically bad and both of these offenses play at a very high pace. The total in this one opened up at 47 points and was quickly bet up by both the public and “sharper” sports gamblers. Were going to follow suit and attack this game.

Both quarterbacks are projected to be under 10% owned and there really isn’t any heavy chalk associated with this game at the moment. I’ll keep an eye on ownership projections and advise if there is anything notable, but regardless, I don’t think there is any reason to fade either side of the ball in this one.

Atlanta Falcons

I’m not going to get very cute with the Atlanta Falcons like I did last week when touting Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley. This is a game where I think Julio Jones, Freeman, and Hooper do most of the damage. If you want to get contrarian and save some salary, Ridley and Sanu are fine.

Matt Ryan ($6,400)
Julio Jones ($8,000)
Austin Hooper ($5,000)
Devonta Freeman ($5,800)
Mohamed Sanu ($4,500)
Calvin Ridley ($5,700)

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray ($6,500)
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100)
Christian Kirk ($5,200)
David Johnson ($7,600) – I hate that price, probably a fade for me besides in MME formats. Watch out for his health as well – Edmonds may be a free square is Johnson is out.
KeeSean Johnson ($3,900)

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (55)

Not a whole lot to say about this game besides shoot-out city. Personally, I like the ATL/AZ game a bit more due to ownership reasons and I really don’t think the Kansas City pass defense is that bad. Having said that, a total of 55 points is tough to ignore.

We have some injury concerns on the Kansas City offense that we’ll need to keep an eye on, so it outside of Mahomes/Kelce, we would be shooting at the hip when picking another Chiefs’ pass catcher. Not to mention the three-man timeshare at the running back position in KC… All in all, it seems like more of a headache when building a KC stack unless you just keep it simple and lock in Mahomes with Kelce.

One thing I do like is the Houston defense allowing the most receptions to opposing running backs and Damien Williams is very affordable.

Houston Texans

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400)
Carlos Hyde ($4,400)
DeShaun Watson ($6,700)
Will Fuller ($6,000)
Duke Johnson ($4,100)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes ($7,500)
Travis Kelce ($7,000)
Damien Williams ($5,700)
Mecole Hardman ($5,300)
Byron Pringle ($3,500)
Sammy Watkins ($6,200) – Looks like he’s highly questionable to suit up.
Demarcus Robinson ($5,900)

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (50.5)

This game has sneaky shootout potential in terms of DFS ownership. I anticipate most players will focus on the two games above (and for good reason), but this game in LA should be a good one. The pace will be there and it’s a contrarian game to attack in DFS.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700)
George Kittle ($5,200)
Marquise Goodwin ($4,500)
Matt Breida ($5,100)
Tevin Coleman ($4,400)
Dante Pettis ($3,900)

Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp ($7,100)
Robert Woods ($5,700)
Jared Goff ($6,100)
Todd Gurley ($6,200) – Injury concerns – make sure he is active on Sunday!
Gerald Everett ($3,600)
Brandin Cooks ($5,400) – Great value, but may miss this one with a concussion.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Baltimore Ravens

Highest implied total on the slate so you have to give them consideration. I would usually back off on this one due to the run-heavy gamescript Vegas is hinting at, but remember Week One? Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown went off! They are always capable of hooking up for a few deep balls despite the blowout concerns in this game.

Lamar Jackson ($6,900)
Marquise Brown ($6,200)
Mark Ingram ($6,600)
Mark Andrews ($4,800)

Dallas Cowboys

They got embarrassed last week and should come out firing early against a terrible Jets team as a whole. I love Elliott and I love Amari Cooper this week. Tyron Smith should return as well this week – that is always great news for the Cowboys’ offense.

Amari Cooper ($7,000)
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500)
Dak Prescott ($6,200)
Michael Gallup ($5,600)
Jason Witten ($3,900)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Damien Williams
RB: Carlos Hyde
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Dante Pettis
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Devonta Freeman
DST: New York Jets

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

10/11 DFS Diamonds: DFS Pro J.P. on Week 6 NFL

Coby Williams 5 years ago

written by Coby Williams

To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal here in the 10/11 DFS column is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some fantasy gold. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!

Iwant to focus this article on a deep dive into NFL Week 6 and guide you to winbig. I will go game by game with my takes on each game along with my core andvalue plays for Week 6.

Deep Dive and Top Plays

Cowboys vs. Jets

I’mgoing to start with this game because you may not know this, but I’m a big Cowboysfan. In this game, the Cowboys are coming off two straight losses to actualcompetition and are looking to end this streak. Sam Darnold is back, which bumpsup the projections and values of a few players, but I’ll be on the Cowboys sidefor the most part.

Cowboys – The Jets rankin the middle of the pack for defense and have been pretty solid behind a pouroffense that was being run by Luke Falk. The Cowboys are projecting fora bounce back game and I’m high on Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. TheCowboys thrive against bad teams and I’d expect them to continue theirdominance against bad teams.

Jets – Sam Darnold is back, which means JamisonCrowder and Le’Veon Bell receive a boost in projections. In Week 1, JamisonCrowder had 10+ targets and had quite a game. Bell was also used in thepassing game and on the field for 100% of their offensive snaps. Le’Veon Bell will garner some ownershipand he’s projecting well over 20% for Week 6, but I won’t be that high on him.Yes, the Cowboys defense allowed 4 TDs to Aaron Jones, but the Dallas defenseis pretty solid and should bounce back against a poor Jets team.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $6,100
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Amari Cooper, WR, DAL – $7,000
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $5,600
- Dak Prescott, QB, DAL – $6,200

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Jamison Crowder, WR, NYJ – $5,400
DraftKings
- Le’Veon Bell, RB, NYJ – $6,400
- Jamison Crowder, WR, NYJ – $4,000
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $5,600

49ers vs. Rams

Thisgame is probably 1 of 3 games that I won’t be focusing on as much. I believethat this is a tough game to predict due to which LA Rams defense will show upthis Sunday. Jameis Winston had a field day against the Rams a few weeks agoand the Rams don’t look solid at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are looking like oneof the best teams in the NFL and the defense might be legit. It’s still early,but time will tell.

49ers – I like the 49ers side for value, but it is very difficult to predict which Wide Receivers will perform as Jimmy Garoppolo loves to spread the ball around. George Kittle is severely underpriced and I’ll definitely have some shares on DraftKings. I also like the price tag of Marquise Goodwin on FanDuel. As for the running backs, I’m at a complete fade given how many they are using right now. I’d use them in GPPs, but a definite fade in cash.

Rams – Besides all our questions surrounding Gurley and his usage, we’re also wondering about Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp is settling in as Jared Goff’s favorite WR, but everyone else seems to be a big question mark. I do like the price tag for Robert Woods, but I’m not high on the Rams side given the rejuvenation of the 49ers defense.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- George Kittle, TE, SF – $6,500
- Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR – $7,800
- Robert Woods, WR, LAR – $7,100
DraftKings
- George Kittle, TE, SF – $5,200
- Jared Goff, QB, LAR – $6,100
- Robert Woods, WR, LAR – $5,600

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF – $5,200
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF – $5,000
DraftKings
- Todd Gurley, RB, LAR – $6,200
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF – $4,400
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF – $4,500
- Gerald Everett, TE, LAR – $3,600

Saints vs. Jaguars

Thishas the potential to be the sneakiest game of the slate, but I believe it’smore a GPP game stack then cash game. The New Orleans Saints defense is middleof the pack , but have one of the best run defenses in all of football. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense is a shell ofits former self and ranks towards the bottom of the NFL. With two weak pass defenses,this has the potential to be a higher scoring game.

Saints – Is Teddy Bridgewater the real deal? He could be getting into the swing of things, but only time will tell. You can use him and Michael Thomas in GPP’s, but my main focus is going to be Alvin Kamara. He will be the only Saints player with most of my exposure.

Jaguars – I believe in Minshew Mania. That’s the first point I want to get across before I dive into this. DJ Chark is priced a little too high for me right now given his recent success so I won’t be using him in as many lineups except for my Gardner Minshew stacks in GPP’s. The value play for me will be Dede Westbrook. He is still a vital part of the passing game and he’s a solid salary saver. As for Leonard Fournette, he projects well, but this Saints run defense is the real deal and I won’t be as high on him. He does have high usage in this Jaguars offense, but the defense and price tag make me shy away from him. On DraftKings, I’m more on Fournette and Chark because of their price tags.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – $7,900
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – 5,400
DraftKings
- Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – $8,000
- Leonard Fournette, RB , JAX – $6,700
- Gardner Minshew, QB, JAX – $5,000

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – 5,400
DraftKings
- DJ Chark, WR, JAX – $5,500
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – $5,100

Seahawks vs. Browns

This isanother interesting game that I will have some pieces for my lineups, but alower amount of stacks. My favorite play of this slate is from this gamebecause of his price tag and usage and he will be in a lot of my GPP and cashlineups. Also, we see a pretty steep discount on Odell Beckham.

Seahawks – This is the moment you’ve been waiting for. My core play of the entire slate. Are you ready? If you listened to my podcast yesterday, you’ll know that I love the price tag of Tyler Lockett and he is going to be locked and loaded in my cash lineups along with most of my GPP lineups. Chris Carson has a pretty nice price tag, but I want to see one more solid game before I roster him in multiple lineups. D.K. Metcalf is also interesting to me, but I’ll mainly be on Lockett. Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman did just run all over this defense so I can see the case for Chris Carson, but I don’t trust him given his ball security issues.

Browns – If there is to be a bounce back game for the Browns, I think this might be the one. I see them trailing for a good portion of this game so they will be passing the ball a ton. Odell Beckham is at a discount and I’ll lock him in GPP lineups until I see more consistency. I’m mainly off the Browns for this game except for tournaments.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,300
- Odell Beckham, WR, CLE – $7,600
DraftKings
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,400
- Odell Beckham, WR, CLE – $6,800

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,300
- D.K. Metcalf – WR, SEA – $5,800
DraftKings
- Chris Carson, RB, SEA – $6,000
- D.K. Metcalf , WR, SEA – $4,700

Titans vs. Broncos

Thisgame is a fade for me. Since I’m doing 150 lineups on the Milly Makertournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll have 1 or 2 stacks for each team,but I am far from a fan of this game.

Titans – The only two things I’m considering for the Titans are using their DST and a few Derrick Henry lineups. With a low Vegas total, this team is not a focus for me.

Broncos – Another low Vegas total for the Broncos and until they have someone other than Joe Flacco throwing to Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton, they are a fade. Sutton and Sanders do have a nice number of targets, but I’m not a fan because of Flacco. They are pretty much a fade for me.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Derrick Henry, RB, TEN – $6,700
DraftKings
- Derrick Henry, RB, TEN – $6,100

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Delanie Walker, TE, TEN – $5,200
- Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $5,900
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN – $5,500
- Royce Freeman, RB, DEN – $5,200
DraftKings
- Delanie Walker, TE, TEN – $3,700
- Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $5,000
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN – $4,800

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Bengals vs. Ravens

I tooka stab at this game in my Wednesday article talking about the Bengals and theirhorrific defense. In my $40,000 victory this past Sunday, I used the Bengals DSTand it hurt my chances at the $100,000. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in overall defense and rank 27^thin points allowed.

Ravens – Given Lamar Jackson has struggled the past 2 weeks, I expect a bounce back game. I’m a little off Mark Ingram because of his price tag, but you can use him in GPP as he projects to be under 10% owned. Marquise Brown will garner ownership because of price tag, especially on FanDuel. Mark Andrews is just too cheap on DraftKings to pass up on him

Bengals – Although the Ravens defense is nothing to brag about, the Bengals offense has been struggling since week 2. I’m high on the Ravens defense is season long leagues, but that price tag is way too high in a matchup against a mediocre Bengals offense. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in offense as well, but they will be passing a lot this game given they will be trailing from the get go. I’ll have a few lineups with Joe Mixon and Auden Tate on DraftKings because of their price, but my main play in GPP’s will most likely be Tyler Boyd. The Bengals side of this game is not my favorite play, but I’ll have some GPP lineups with them.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $8,200
- Marquise Brown, WR, BAL – $5,800 (only on FanDuel)
DraftKings
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $6,900
- Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – $4,800

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Joe Mixon, RB, CIN – $6,400
DraftKings
- Auden Tate, WR, CIN – $4,500

Texans vs. Chiefs

I’mgoing to stick with this game as the “Game Stack of the Week”. Both sides will garner ownership given their letit fly mentalities

Texans – DeAndre Hopkins is due to breakout. Plain and simple. Given Will Fuller’s recent performance, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to break out of his funk versus a mediocre Chiefs defense. As always, we are unsure of what’s wrong with the DraftKings pricing model because Carlos Hyde is ridiculously cheap and the best value on the slate.

Chiefs – The same narrative can be said here about Travis Kelce. Kelce has struggled in recent weeks and Patrick Mahomes seems to be human. I’m hoping many shy away from the Chiefs given their price tags, but I’m still high on them this week given Atlanta was passing all over Houston last week. I don’t have Mahomes listed as a core play, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have shares of him.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU- $8,400
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,600
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,500
DraftKings
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $7,400
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,000
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,000
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU – $6,000
DraftKings
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700
- Carlos Hyde , RB, HOU – $4,400

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Couldthis be the game that Julio Jones breaks out of his funk? He is one of myfavorite plays of this slate. I honestly think Hooper will go lower owned giventhe Cards shutting down Tyler Eifert, but I’m locking in Hooper as the Falconsare pass happy and I expect lots of targets to head Hooper’s way.

Falcons – Arizona defense is bad. Plain and simple. They arebroken when it comes to defending the TE. I will load up on Falcons stacks as I expect them to continue to be passheavy.

Cardinals – Kyler Murray is coming off his first win and this was without doing as well as we wanted him to. Given the Falcons and Cardinals having two of the worst defenses in the NFL, I’d expect a shootout. This game will most likely be my number two game stack I heavily use. Look for Christian Kirk news because I’ll be loading up on Larry Fitzgerald along with some KeeShan Johnson if Kirk is ruled out.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Austin Hooper, TE, ATL – $5,000
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,000
- Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – $6,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
DraftKings
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,700
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,200 (if active)
- Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL – $5,700

Eagles vs. Vikings

I sidemore with the Vikings side over the Eagles side for this game. Vikings DSTstill ranks as one of the top defenses, but they are susceptible to the pass. Isee the Eagles trailing in this game so they’ll need to pass. Ertz projectswell from the Eagles side.

Eagles – As I mentioned, my main target is Ertz, but Jordan Howard comes in as value on DraftKings given that he seems to have won the feature back role.

Vikings – This is where things get dicey. The Eagles secondary is garbage and Kirk Cousins should have a field day. The question is whether Stefon Diggs will finally have his breakout game. I’m high on him this week given his price tag, but you just never know. I do like Dalvin Cook this week after a down week in Week 5.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
- Zach Ertz, TE, PHI – $6,600
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,200
DraftKings
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
DraftKings
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,900
- Jordan Howard, RB, PHI – $4,900
- Zach Ertz , TE, PHI – $5,400

Redskins vs. Dolphins

Battle of the defeated! One of my least favorite games, but could be a GPP gold mine. There is value all over the place with this game and both defenses rank towards the bottom. Not much to dive deep into for this game as it has the lowest projected total in Vegas so I’ll keep the value plays on this end. I will have some Case Keenum and Terry McLaurin stacks given the chemistry they’ve had this season.

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $5,300
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $5,600
DraftKings
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $4,500
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $4,100
- Case Keenum, QB, WAS – $5,000

My rankings for DST are as follows:

Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings

My offenses to target and stacks to focus on are as follows

Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!

I’ll be in Las Vegas this weekend so I’ll beon and off until Sunday morning, but please contactme with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slackchannel!

5 years ago 0 comment

NHL Daily Fantasy Sports NFL PGA

DFS Diamonds for 10/9: DFS Pro J.P. on NFL, NHL and PGA

Coby Williams 5 years ago

written by Coby Williams

WIN DAILY is excited and proud to welcome DFS Pro Javier Prellezo to the team! Check out his incredible career DFS accomplishments in his bio at the bottom of the page.

Win Daily DFS Grinders: Happy Wednesday to you!!

To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some DFS Diamonds. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!

For those of you that were in our Premium Gold Slack Chat this past week, I was trying to guide you all to push for Christian McCaffrey. They are simply forcing him the ball and rolling the offense towards CMC. Until they decide to lighten the workload, you need to keep pushing CMC as a CORE PLAY. Unfortunately, he’s not on the main slate for this week so it’s time to be sad.

MostDFS sites, pros, players, etc. don’t focus on the next week until later on inthe week, but I want to provide an early look into Week 6. I want to focus onthe top 3-5 games that I’m currently leaning towards for Week 6. I will take adeeper dive into the games later in the week.

DFS Cash Game Plays and Top Plays

Bengals vs. Ravens

This isn’t a game to target on both sides, but more on the Ravens side. The Bengals defense is bad and for those of you that took advantage of the cheap price on the Bengals DST were thoroughly disappointed. Given two straight weeks of disappointment for Lamar Jackson, I’d expect a BIG bounce-back game for Jackson and the Ravens offense. Keep your eye on Marquise Brown and his ankle throughout the week.

DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $8,200
- Marquise Brown , WR, BAL – $5,800
- Mark Andrews , TE, BAL – $6,300
DraftKings
- Lamar Jackson, QB , BAL – $6,900
- Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – $4,800

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Joe Mixon, RB, CIN – $6,400
DraftKings
- Auden Tate, WR, CIN – $4,500

Texans vs. Chiefs

To be honest, this might be the game stack of the week. Texans vs. Falcons did NOT disappoint and I don’t think this game will either. Given two mediocre defenses and two killer offenses, I’ll be heavily invested in this game and I’d expect it to be the chalk. Keep your eye on Patrick Mahomes, who was hobbling all game on that ankle.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU- $8,400
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,600
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,500
DraftKings
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $7,400
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,000
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,000
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU – $6,000
DraftKings
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700
- Carlos Hyde , RB, HOU – $4,400

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Many may shy away from this game because of how bad both teams are, but I wouldn’t say their offenses are as bad as their defenses. Austin Hooper will be the chalk given the Cardinals defense versus TEs, but hopefully, ownership will shy away from Hooper a little given that they shut down Tyler Eifert.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Austin Hooper, TE, ATL – $5,000
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,000
- Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – $6,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
DraftKings
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,700
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,200 (if active)
- Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL – $5,700

GPP Game(s) of theWeek:

Redskins vs. Dolphins

Battle of the defeated! Who will get their first win or will they tie? Honestly, both defenses are bad, both offenses are bad. I suspect that many will NOT be on this game because of how bad they are, but this could be GPP gold. I side more with the Redskins side for offense, but with the Dolphins coming off a bye week. You just never know.

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $5,300
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $5,600
DraftKings
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $4,500
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $4,100

Eagles vs. Vikings

Kirk Cousins is alive! I feel like most players will shy away from this game because of what the Eagles just did, but I expect the Vikings to feast on this terrible defense. The Vikings are motivated and Dalvin Cook had an off week. I expect Dalvin Cook to be a CORE PLAY!

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
- Zach Ertz, TE, PHI – $6,600
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,200
DraftKings
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
DraftKings
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,900
- Jordan Howard, RB, PHI – $4,900
- Zach Ertz , TE, PHI – $5,400

This is NOT a homer pick, but if Darnold is out this week once again, I’d say load up with the Dallas DST and move on from anyone else. Luke Falk is terrible and bad defenses (like the Eagles) have been feasting. The word is that Sam Darnold will be active, but be on the lookout for this news.

I’ll be back Friday with a deeper dive into my favorite NFL games for Week 6.

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NHL DFS (10/9)

Three game slates are NOT my favorite, but I do like to max enter on low-cost entries to see if we can hit big. My strategy is to put in 10-20 lineups for each team. Ideally, you can do 10 PP1 for each team and 10 PP2 for each team. It isn’t the best strategy, but it worked more times than once. I’d also recommend doing different combos of game stacks and hope for a 6-5 shootout in one of the games. With these PP lines, I’d focus on a game stack or focus on a particular stack that you’re in love with to mix and match,

Kings vs. Canucks

Kings – The Kings were bad last year and will continue to be bad. Losing 6-5 to Edmonton in their first game shows us a promising offense. As expected, their defense is bad and the Canucks could be a sneaky stack even though they are supposed to be any good this year. Core plays for the Kings include Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Canucks – A young squad with lots to learn. This game might the one we want to avoid given the inconsistencies of both teams. I don’t know what to expect, but there are some solid core players here. Core plays for the Canucks include Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Alexander Edler.

Key Takeaway – Being on the second night of a back-to-back, I’d load up on the PP1 and PP2 of the Canucks. Nothing is sneaky on a three game slate, but the Canucks are a solid play against the worst team in the NHL. I’d fade the Kings.

Devils vs. Flyers

Devils – The defense has been suspect through two games and offense seems middle of the pack. I’d fade them for now, but the offense does look promising coming off what they did last year. Core plays from New Jersey include P.K. Subban, Taylor Hall, Wayne Simmonds, Travis Zajac, and Kyle Palmieri.

Flyers – One game, one win. They allowed three goals on the path to a 4-3 win against the lowly Blackhawks. This game has the potential for high scoring given the rivalry and the poor defenses on both sides. I’d target more the Flyers side vs. the Devils side. Core plays from Philadelphia include Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, and Shea Gostisbehere.

Key DFS Takeaway – This game has the potential to be high scoring so a game stack isn’t out of the question, but I’d prefer the Sabres vs. Canadians in that regard.

Canadiens vs. Sabres

Canadiens – Through two games, they’ve allowed three goals and five goals while losing both games in Shootouts. Defense looks to be a problem for the Canadiens, but the offense does NOT. I’d stack the top two PP lines with a focus on the PP1. Core plays from Montreal include Phillip Danault, Shea Weber, and Brendan Gallagher.

Sabres – They have beat two solid teams thus far with only three goals allowed thus far in the first two games. The offense put up seven recently against a solid Devils team, so we can wait and see to see how it goes, but I would just focus on the Canadiens side as of now. Core plays from Buffalo include Jack Eichel , Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart. These guys will be on the PP1 unit and have good value for your stacks.

Key DFS Takeaway – My primary game stack play would be this one. Both defenses are pretty suspect and both offenses seem to be strong this year. If I had to pick a side for this game, I’d choose Buffalo.

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PGADFS (10/9) – Houston Open

CorePlays

Doc Redman (FD : $8,400 ; DK : $7,200) – Best value for this tournament. He can find his way into contention given he is third in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. Best value on the slate and will most likely be the chalk.

Harris English (FD : $9,900 ; DK : $8,900) – Weak field and this is your most expensive play on both sites, but this golfer was once elite. He’s an above-average with his putter and his short game is one of the best in the game. Although he has a weak approach game, he can be trusted given the weak field of this tournament.

My Consensus Value Rankings for this Tournament:

Harris English
Doc Redman
Lanto Griffin
Henrik Stenson
Brian Harman
Scottie Scheffler
Jhonattan Vegas
Zack Sucher

Please contact me with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slack channel!

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Five

Allan Fabrykant 5 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Week Four was a big one for the Win Daily team (many thanks to rostering a lot of Los Angeles Rams and Nick Chubb). Unfortunately, the game stacks in last week’s post didn’t really work out, but our top team stack paid dividends in a NFL DFS GPP.

It’s a bit of an ugly slate this week, so I do advise DFS players to heavily consider playing more cash games this week. Please check out our Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. But, lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Five.

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If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (47.5)

With the pace both of these teams play at and the combined struggles on defense, I was quite surprised to see a relatively mediocre total of 47.5 points. I’m going to remain confident this game shoots out and that multiple players in this game are worth targeting in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray ($6,300)
David Johnson ($7,500)
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000)
KeeSean Johnson ($3,500)
Trent Sherfield ($3,000)

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon ($6,100)
Andy Dalton ($5,700)
Tyler Boyd ($6,500)
Auden Tate ($3,500)
Tyler Eifert ($3,300)

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans (49)

Both offenses have been extremely disappointing of late and enter Week Five in a perfect “get-right” spot. There really aren’t a whole lot of games that scream shootout in Week Five, but this game should be one of them. Both teams have been playing at a high pace and we always love Matt Ryan and company in a dome.

It looks like the Houston offense will be popular this weekend and for good reason, but I love getting exposure to the Falcons’ offense in Week Five for NFL DFS GPP style of tournaments.

Atlanta Falcons

Mohamed Sanu ($4,200)
Matt Ryan ($5,900)
Devonta Freeman ($5,300)
Julio Jones ($7,700)
Austin Hooper ($4,500)
Calvin Ridley ($4,900)

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson ($6,700)
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800)
Will Fuller ($4,500)
Duke Johnson ($4,200)
Carlos Hyde ($4,300)

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson ($7,100)
Marquise Brown ($5,700)
Mark Andrews ($4,800)
Miles Boykin ($3,200)

Chicago Bears

Chase Daniel ($4,800)
Allen Robinson ($5,600)
David Montgomery ($5,200)
Trey Burton ($3,300)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin ($6,900)
Jameis Winston ($6,200)
Mike Evans ($7,100)
O.J. Howard ($3,900)

New England Patriots

Julian Edelman ($6,300)
Josh Gordon ($6,100)
Tom Brady ($6,500)
Sony Michel ($5,500)
James White ($5,000)
Phillip Dorsett ($4,900)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: David Johnson
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Mohamed Sanu
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
TE: O.J. Howard
FLEX: David Montgomery
DST: Tennessee Titans

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 4 NFL DFS TE and DST Picks: Evan the Excellent

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re into an exciting Week 4 DFS for NFL action and I’m looking at some TEs and DSTs to plug into your daily fantasy lineups and win some of that sweet, sweet green in cash games and GPPs. Let’s shed the bracket coverage, avoid the pesky double teams and find the paydirt!

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Week 4 DFS Tight End Cash Game Plays

EvanEngram, NYG vs. WAS

FD ($6,800) DK ($5,700)

Engram is still the best receiver available on the Giants, so that hasn’t changed since Week 1 – and has been elevated to either the No. 1 fantasy TE or No. 2 by just about every expert polled in Week 4. More than anything else, consensus rankings that uniform are the stuff of cash game gold – and we needn’t look further than Engram’s game logs and target totals (14,8,8) to know that he’s a reliable pass catcher who’s involved in every aspect of the offense. With rookie QB Daniel Jones (DAMN, Daniel!) at the helm and Saquon Barkley injured, the Giants TE will be heavily riled upon in Week 4.

DarrenWaller, OAK at IND

FD($6,700) DK ($5,200)

A guy who rarely comes off the field for the Raiders offense and has seen target totals of 8, 7 and 14 in the first three games, Waller entered the season as a highly touted, but somewhat risky fantasy option on a rudderless team without a bona fide No. 1 receiver. He hasn’t yet to score a TD, and that makes him kind of risky in GPPs – where he’ll be pretty highly owned. But Waller has incredibly managed to put himself into fine position as a cash game option with his elite level of involvement in just about every Oakland game script. I’m not saying he’s a bad GPP play, but he’s going to be chalky along with Engram.

Week 4 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

TravisKelce, KC at DET

FD(7,600) DK ($7,200)

Once again, Kelce has adifficult on-paper matchup that could keep a portion of the field away, and he’sstill very much a viable cash game option despite facing the Lions – who havedefended TEs well so far. But he’s my top GPP option of the Week and it’s not especiallyclose. At the moment, I’m looking at having ownership levels north of 50percent for Kelce, who’s put up consistent target totals of 8, 9 and 8 in hisfirst three games and has already compiled 25-284-1 on the season. He’s primedfor a two-TD game versus the Lions and I’m not especially afraid of theirdefense, which will struggle to contain this big-bodied gamebreaker.

EricEbron, IND vs. OAK

FD($5,300) DK ($4,000)

With Jacoby Brissett really clicking in this Colts offense and the Raiders safeties and linebackers looking a bit sluggish and underwhelming, I’ll have some shares of Ebron at this price. He hasn’t drawn any huge target totals this season and splits the field time with Jack Doyle, who’s another possible GPP option. What Ebron (11-80-1 on the season through three games) offers in Week 4 is likely increased usage inside the red zone, where he should have more opportunities than usual given Oakland defensive futility. He won’t draw much ownership and we know he has enormous upside – albeit a relatively low floor.

DelanieWalker, TEN at ATL

FD($5,700) DK ($4,800)

Walker is nursing a kneeinjury that has seen him miss consecutive practices, but if he’s available –even in a limited fashion – during Friday’s sessions I’ll find a way to use himin some tournaments. Walker is a veteran TE who’s posted 16-158-2 over his firstthree games and has a history of playing hurt, which can be a blessing and acure for fantasy owners. He’s fairly priced on both sites and has decent upside againstan Atlanta team that just lost Keanu Neal – its standout strong safety – to atorn Achilles. If Walker plays on Sunday, I’ll have some exposure.

Week 4 DFS Tight End Punt Plays

WillDissly, SEA at ARI

FD($5,400) DK ($3,600)

I make sure I lead off the punts by reminding you that you’ll be assuming a considerable amount of risk not looking to the obvious top TEs, but I’m not so sure that Dissly isn’t obvious at this point – given the matchup against the dreadful Cardinals and the upside that he’s established. After a quiet Week 1, Will has put up performances of 5-50-2 on five targets and 6-62-1 on seven targets. He’s worth rostering in all contests as a FLEX pairing with a more chalky TE or as a “contrarian light” option if you’re fading the five or six guys ahead of him in the weekly fantasy rankings. He’ll still garner ownership, but it probably won’t be as high as it should be.

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. LAC

FD($4,600) DK ($2,600)

Gesickiis a complete dart throw given Miami’s putrid offense and the fact that he’s onlyseen 11 targets through the first there weeks. But don’t look at him havingjust six catches for 51 yards without a touchdown through threegames as a negative – look at it as an opportunity to keep his ownership in the0-5 percent range. The second-year tight end won’t be a cash game optionanytime soon, but he’s likely to see increased targets in Week 4 versus the Chargerswith WRs Albert Wilson (calf/hip) and Allen Hurns (concussion) questionable anddoubtful, respectively.

Additional Week 4 DFS GPP/Punt options:

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. CLE (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) – Nursing a foot injury, so a GPP option you should make sure is playing.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. TEN (FD $6,400, DK $4,300) – Hooper is my white whale for DFS TEs, and I’m always on the wrong end of his capricious antics.

O.J. Howard, TB at LAR (FD $5,900, DK $3,900) – At some point they’re going to start throwing to him.

Vernon Davis, WAS at NYG (FD $5,100, DK $3,400) – He’s old as the hills, but he’s playing the Giants and this one could get interesting.

Week 4 DFS DST Cash Game Plays

LosAngeles Chargers (LAC at MIA)

FD($5,300) DK ($3,800)

The Chargers are playing the Dolphins – and while we needn’tsay much more than that, it’s important to point out that despite a bevy of solidpass rushers, they have only recorded four sacks through three games. That’s anumber set to increase on Sunday against the worst offensive line in football. Don’toverthink this one and get the Chargers DST in there in cash games if you canafford it.

JacksonvilleJaguars (JAX at DEN)

FD($4,700) DK ($3,700)

It’s somewhat dangerous to play a defense at Mile High – a venue that doesn’t lend itself to standout performances for opponents. But these Denver Broncos are not a well-oiled machine, and they could have trouble moving the ball against the Jaguars defense. This Jacksonville unit is coming off its best game of the season in Week 3, when they racked up nine sacks and recovered a fumble, their first takeaway in 2019. They’d obviously like to have Jalen Ramsey for this game, but he’s on paternity leave and probably won’t be available in Week 4. If he somehow is, the Jags are an even better play.

Week 4 DFS DST GPP Plays

LosAngeles Rams (LAR vs. TB)

FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)

The Rams DST has been consistent from a fantasy points perspective,scoring 9, 8 and 9 FP in the first three weeks of the season. They have somesuperstar defensive lineman, including one of the best in the game, a group ofcapable LBs and some excellent defensive backs. They’ve also notched an INT ineach of their contests so far and should continue that streak against JameisWinston and the Bucs. Plug them in some of your GPPs and enjoy the results.

ChicagoBears (CHI vs. MIN)

FD($4,700) DK ($3,400)

By way of their electrifying performance in Week 3, the Bearscould garner some higher ownership levels than they might deserve against a Vikingsunit that runs the ball a lot and will do everything they can to prevent KirkCousins from getting in too many 3rd and long situations. Truthfully, that’s apretty smart strategy against a Bears defense that caused five turnovers Mondaynight against the Redskins.

Week 4 DFS DST Punt Plays

IndianapolisColts (IND vs. OAK)

FD($4,300) DK ($3,100)

The Colts defense had four sacks in each of its first twogames before the goose egg against Atlanta, and I expect a much betterperformance at home facing the woeful Raiders. They give up some yardage, butfor this price I’m buying shares.

TennesseeTitans (TEN at ATL)

FD($3,500) DK ($2,600)

Ina week without too many viable punt options at DST, this is about as cheap as I’dlike to go. The Titans secondary is much better than they played last Thursdaynight in Jacksonville, and despite a difficult matchup against a potent Atlantaoffense, there’s plenty to like in terms of their upside (23 FP in Week 1) and theplaymaking ability of their ball-hawking defensive backs.

AdditionalDST options:

New England Patriots (NE at BUF)

Houston Texans (HOU vs. CAR)

Evan Engram Featured Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL MLB

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Four

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Three should have paid dividends if you followed the Week Three NFL DFS GPP article at Win Daily. Lets stay hot and get right back into NFL DFS GPP action for Week Four. For those of you who still prefer cash formats, be sure to check out my article for your Week Four NFL DFS Cash Games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Top Game Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (53.5)

No surprise here, the Kansas City Chiefs are a part of the highest total on Vegas’ board yet again in Week Four. I’d love to say this game is a fade for me due to Matt Patricia and the Lions’ slow-paced run-first offense, but I cannot.

Kansas City is matchup proof and simply scores 30+ points at will. This should force Detroit to play faster than they’re used to and likely leads to a game where Matt Stafford has to throw the ball 40+ times to stay competitive. There are a handful of good plays in this game that you can stack up in DFS.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 on DraftKings)
Travis Kelce ($7,200)
Sammy Watkins ($6,700)
Mecole Harman ($5,100)
Demarcus Robinson ($5,200)

Detroit Lions

Kerryon Johnson ($5,400)
Kenny Golladay ($5,900)
T.J. Hockenson ($3,300) – Hockenson is back in play this week
Matthew Stafford ($5,500)
Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,400)

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (47.5)

I love the over in this game as I project it to be a shootout from the start. This should be one of our fastest paced games on the slate and ownership doesn’t appear to be anything we need to worry about here. McCaffrey will always be popular (especially when there are bye weeks) but he’s a player you probably just have to lock-button this week in your NFL DFS GPP and cash game formats.

Get exposure on both sides of this game! I’ll most likely be fading Greg Olsen (as I only liked him in Week Three for the matchup). Please note, we may see a week where DeAndre Hopkins sits around 10% ownership…

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800)
D.J. Moore ($5,600)
Curtis Samuel ($4,600)
Kyle Allen ($5,200)
Carolina Panthers DST ($2,300) – Extremely contrarian GPP DST target.

Houston Texans

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)
Deshaun Watson ($6,400)
Will Fuller ($4,500) – Way too cheap. Could be a slate breaker.
Jordan Akins ($3,100)
Duke Johnson ($4,200)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (48)

Every week it seems like the Arizona Cardinals are drawing my interest in some form for an NFL DFS GPP. This week, I like the idea of stacking the Seahawks’ passing attack and then adding a Cardinal or two on the other side. I’ll have some exposure to Cardinals’ stacks in my MME formats, but nothing for my main lineups.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson ($6,100)
Will Dissly ($3,600) – Should be extreme chalk, but Arizona continues to get destroyed by opposing tight-ends. Just make it easy on yourself and play him.
Tyler Lockett ($6,300)
DK Metcalf ($4,800)
Chris Carson ($5,700) – Absolute smash spot, but his recent fumbles are an obvious issue.

Arizona Cardinals

David Johnson ($6,800)
Christian Kirk ($5,100)
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600)
Kyler Murray ($6,000) – People are going to shy away from Kyler now that he is priced up to $6,000… If you like this game’s chances of shooting out, this is a great week to play Kyler.

Top Team Stacks

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams currently have an implied team total sitting around 29 points – the third highest on the slate. Since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have brought in Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles, they’ve have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs, but are very beatable via the pass.

Vegas may not be dead on with this implied point total (I personally like the Rams over) but they certainly don’t think the Buccaneers will slow down this Los Angeles offense. The Rams are at home (where Jared Goff thrives) so lock in this Rams passing attack.

Jared Goff ($6,300)
Brandin Cooks ($6,200)
Cooper Kupp ($6,500)
Robert Woods ($6,100)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Jared Goff
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: James White
WR: Cooper Kupp
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Will Fuller
TE: Will Dissly
FLEX: David Johnson
DST: Carolina Panthers

5 years ago 0 comment

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