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Houston Astros

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Fantasy Stacks: Winning Edge for August 23

5 years ago

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 13-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Fantasy Stack: Houston Astros

vs.LHP Jose Suarez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

**Low Risk

Jose Suarez takes the mound for the Angels tonight and he will be facing the power packed Houston Astros. Suarez has been anything but good, allowing righties to slash to a .431 wOBA, .630 SLG, and .417 OBP. He has allowed 33 earned runs across 35 innings pitched to them. Suarez struggles with the long ball, allowing 2.70 HR/9 backed by a 42% flyball and 44% hard contact rate. He has allowed at least four earned runs or more in his last four starts. Pretty steep price to pay here for the Astros, but they continue to slash above their season averages for the month of August and get another great matchup here tonight.

Preferred Plays: George Springer ($4100 FD|$5300 DK), Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3300 FD|$5200 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

The Brewers come in behind the Astros for second highest IRT on the slate (as of 5 AM EST). They will face an inconsistent Merrill Kelly, who has an ERA of 5.60 on the road compared to his stingy 3.66 ERA at home. Kelly has pitched the worst he has all year in the month of August, allowing batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .571 SLG, and .373 OBP. Milwaukee isn’t showcasing a bunch of power in their lineup right now, but they are getting on base and creating runs as indicated by their 117 WRC+ to righties over the last two weeks. I’ll take the over on this one and look for some extra base hits from the Brew Crew.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Fantasy Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Fantasy Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): 5.15 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Nelson Cruz ($3800 FD|$5800 DK), Mitch Garver ($3200 FD|$4900 DK), Miguel Sano ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and CJ Cron ($3000 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP RHP Anthony DeSclafani (CIN): 4.50 Runs

**High Risk

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), Starling Marte ($3600 FD|$5400 DK), and Adam Frazier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK),

Pitching

Jack Flaherty RHP (STL): 3.25 Runs
Lance Lynn RHP (TEX): 3.90 Runs
Vincent Velasquez RHP (PHI): 3.90 Runs

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MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

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Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/21 DFS Pitching Picks

5 years ago

written by

Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. DET

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.

Charlie Morton, TB vs. SEA

DK ($11,100) FD ($11,600)

Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.

This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($11,400) FD ($11,000)

Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.

Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.

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8/21 DFS Pitching GPP Picks

Mike Minor, TEX vs. LAA

DK ($10,400) FD ($9,300)

He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.

Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. NYY

DK ($9,600) FD ($7,700)

This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.

That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. WAS

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,200)

Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.

The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Hitting Stacks: Winning Edge for August 21

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Hitting Stack: Houston Astros**

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.35 Runs

**Low Risk

The Astros offense has come back down to reality as of late after going on a heater for the last month. This is still a dangerous lineup and they get a favorable matchup against LHP Daniel Norris. He is having an average season, owning 4.82 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA. Norris has a GB rate of 41% and a BABIP of .318. He is allowing 1.68 HR/9. His splits are pretty identical so i feel comfortable going R or L through this Astros lineup.

Preferred Plays: Yordon Alvarez ($4300 FD|$5500 DK), Alex Bregman ($4500 FD|$5200 DK), George Springer ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), and Jose Altuve ($4400 FD|$5100 DK).

MLB Hitting Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Drew Smyly (BOS): 6.60 Runs

**Moderate Risk

As of now the Red Sox hold the highest implied run total on the slate. They get a weak left handed pitcher in Drew Smyly, who had a flash of greatness when traded to the Phillies, but now he seems to be back to his normal 7.00+ ERA self, giving up four or more runs in his last three starts. Smyly is allowing a massive 47% hard contact, 46% fly ball rate, and 2.81 HR/9. I have a tough time paying the premium salary for these Red Sox players with the fantasy output we’ve been getting in return lately, but they should be one of the top owned stacks tonight.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Hitting Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Thomas Pannone (TOR): 4.25 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. LHP Caleb Smith (MIA): 5.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Adam Duvall ($2900 FD|$3800 DK), Josh Donaldson ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Ozzie Albies ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Charlie Culberson ($2000 FD|$3600 DK).

Pitching

Adrian Houser RHP (MIL): 4.20
Yu Darvish RHP (CHC): UPDATE
Walker Buehler RHP (LAD): 4.25 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Fantasy MLB Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 19

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks. All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

Fantasy MLB Stack: Houston Astros**

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET): 7.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Edwin Jackson has disappointed a lot of people his last few starts. He has actually fared well against struggling teams like the Red Sox and Mariners. Today is a whole different story though. Jackson has the displeasure of taking on the most talented team in MLB, the Houston Astros. The Astros are on fire right now, slashing to a .378 wOBA, .272 ISO, and 143 WRC+ against righties. Jackson maintains his 8.00+ ERA, is allowing a massive 3.40 HR/9, and has a BABIP of .331. The cards are obviously stacked against him tonight and although he has had some decent performances, I highly doubt he will have one against this Astros squad. Eat the chalk, play the Astros.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Los Angeles Angels

vs. LHP Kolby Allard (TEX): 5.80 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Angels come in with the second highest run total today and a get a major boost at Globe Life Park. We are looking at 101 degrees first pitch. The Angel’s have struggled mightily this month, slashing to a .211 wOBA, .130 ISO, and 28 WRC+. These are awful hitting numbers are I have hard time getting here for a full stack even with a ball park boost and LHP on the mound. I do like a few pieces here. Allard has looked decent in his first two starts away from Arlington, striking out 5 or more and allowing 3 runs or less in 5 innings pitched. Texas will presumably roll out five righties against Peters, I do like the Rangers as well.

Preferred Stack: Mike Trout ($4900 FD|$5600 DK), Albert Pujols ($2900 FD|$3800 DK), Justin Upton ($3500 FD|$4500 DK), and David Fletcher ($3000 FD|$3900 DK).

Fantasy MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles**

vs. RHP Jorge Lopez (KCR): 5.50 Runs

**High Risk

The Twins actually have the slight edge over the Orioles for implied run total but I like the O’s today for less ownership. The Orioles are hitting the best they have all season in the last two weeks, slashing to a .332 wOBA, .235 ISO, and .321 WRC+. Their offensive struggles outweigh the good days but when they are making good contact the runs seem to pour in. Jorge Lopez owns a 6.51 ERA, 5.44 FIP, and 4.64 SIERA. He is allowing 1.89 HR/9 and .321 BABIP. Not sure if I’ll get to a full stack here but I do like a few pieces.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

Fantasy MLB Stack: Minnesota Twins**

vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

**Low Risk

Fantasy Team Stack: Cincinnati Reds**

vs. LHP Eric Lauer (SDP): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Phillip Ervin ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), Aristides Aquino ($4500 FD|$5000 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($3800 FD|$4600 DK).

Fantasy Team Stack: Kansas City Royals

vs. LHP John Means (BAL): 4.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Jorge Soler ($3600 FD|$5500 DK), Chelsor Cuthbert ($2500 FD|$3500 DK), Hunter Dozier ($3800 FD|$5400 DK), and Whit Merrifield ($3200 FD|$5100 DK).

Pitching

Kyle Gibson RHP (MIN): 3.80
Marco Gonzales LHP (SEA): 3.50 Runs
Wade Miley LHP (HOU): 2.60 Runs
Zac Gallen RHP (ARI): 3.90 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/14 DFS Pitching Picks: Kershaw Brings Miami Heat

5 years ago

written by

Tuesday begat Wednesday, and based on the quality of pitching available for the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks, I kinda wish we stayed with Tuesday, Gerrit Cole scratch excluded. Save for the Dodgers doing us a favor and pushing Clayton Kershaw back an extra day, this shapes to be a meh-like slate of arms.

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My advice: invest in offense. Lots of offense. There have been worse days filled with mediocre to bad pitching across the board, but Wednesday is all about dart throwing for the most part. Fortunately for you, I’m throwing the darts, so sit back, follow the advice and count the long green that hits your accounts early Thursday morning.

8/14 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA

DK ($11,800) FD ($12,000)

No explanation was given as to why Kershaw was pushed back an extra day, but one guess could be that he went about 100 pitches for only the fifth time this season in his last start. That being said, there will be many who will partake in Kershaw in what should be a feast against Marlins hitting.

Kershaw’s K/9 have fallen to “just’ 9.07, but the combination of a 1.94 BB/9 rate and a matchup against the league’s second-lowest scoring offense is a winning pair. Miami is averaging a mere 3.66 runs per game and are tied with Detroit for the Major League worst in OPS+ (78). Starting Kershaw. who has five starts of at least 46 FanDuel points in his last six starts, will eat into your offense, but this is a layup if you’re looking for pitching to amplify your DFS roster today.

Wade Miley, HOU at CWS

DK ($9,000) FD ($9,200)

Miley hasn’t lost a decision since June 17, having won five straight in a stretch where the Astros have gone 7-1 when he’s on the mound. Over those eight starts, Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one and has produced a 2.21 ERA and .183 OBA since the All-Star Break. If you’re playing an afternoon-only slate, Miley could be the anchor of your staff, as he sports a 2.05 ERA in four daytime starts this season. Never a big strikeout artist, Miley has added two Ks per nine frames this season, going from a pedestrian 5.58 K/9 to a passable 7.55 K/9.

Miley continues to keep the ball on the ground (52.9% ground ball rate) but one of the biggest contributors to his career year has been a sharp reduction in line drive rate. Hitters had a 23.6% LD rate against him last season; those tables have turned to 16.1% this season. With a solid RA9 of 3.25, my bet is on Miley acing the pack.

8/14 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. BOS

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,700)

Bieber continues to make a play for AL Cy Young consideration, having struck out 37 batters over his last 32 innings, a stretch that also includes a pair of complete games and 1.69 ERA. The Indians will be looking for a similar effort from him after their bullpen has been gassed over the first two games of an offensive-heavy series entering an early start time on Wednesday.

While he certainly belongs in the cash game section, there’s mild concerns about Bieber that puts him in the GPP pack. For starters, the Red Sox lit him up for three homers and six earned runs in his only other start against them on May 29, yet he earned the win despite going five innings in a 14-9 slugfest. Bieber can counter that by displaying his 80:8 K:BB rate over 63 innings of daylight play. Whiffs and control are locks here, but Bieber’s 44.4% hard contact rate is a sign that his recent run could come to a brutal halt, especially with the caliber of bats the Red Sox will bring to the table.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CIN

DK ($11,000) FD ($11,000)

After Strasburg, the pitching cliff falls. Trust me, you won’t like the landing. He’s looked human over his last two starts after a run that saw him put up at least 46 FanDuel points in four of five starts that included a 74 FD point gem on July 3. Despite the elevated ERA, Strasburg is already +12 in RAR over last season and his 3.9 WAR puts him on pace to approach his career-best 6.4 from 2017.

In what looks like a sign of Strasburg adjusting to age, he’s thrown his fastball under 50% for the first time in his career (49.6%), relying more on his curve (30.2%) than at any other time. Strasburg is whiffing batters at a 29.2% clip, so whatever he’s doing is working. When it comes to his ERA, Strasburg’s 3.28 FIP tells a more accurate story than his actual 3.72 ERA. I’d consider Strasburg in the cash format, but the Reds have the firepower to make him a risk, which is why he falls in the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks rankings.

8/14 DFS Pitching Punt Play

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. TB

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

Since the Padres made him a fixture in the rotation, Quantrill has ripped off a 1.62 ERA in six starts. The early stretch of walks is a distant memory, as he averages just 2.31 BB/9 overall while also holding batters to a .183 OBA since the All-Star Break, a run that has seen Quantrill’s ERA dip to 0.93. He also eclipsed the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his career while throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies last Thursday.

Quantrill offers just enough strikeout punch (7.33 K/9) and a 2.93 home ERA, a combination that makes him a good low-risk, high-reward option. The Rays are hitting the ball well on the road (+21 in homers), but Quantrill’s recent run will last long enough to slow down Tampa Bay’s methodical lineup.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For August 11

5 years ago

written by

This Sunday August 11th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Catcher: Christian Vazquez ($2,700 FD) has gone deep seven times in 111 at bats this season. He is .257 ISO/.370 wOBA. Although he is not my favorite Red Sox bat (JD Martinez) he is going to have his opportunity to help clear the bases vs Patrick Sandoval in his second big league game this season. Sandoval has a 6.42 ERA and a 11.6% walk rate in AAA this year. Vazquez helps round out MLB DFS Red Sox stacks.

Catcher Value: Wilson Ramos ($2,500 FD) struggled basically all season but turned it on recently. In his last seven games he is hitting .316/.632 .SLG with two home runs. Opposing pitcher Aninbal Sanchez has been fine (3.67 ERA) but he can get hit. He has given up a at least a run in every game since May 29th. I don’t love the play honestly, but at $2,500, on a hot Mets team, it may be worth a MLB DFS shot.

Honorable Mention: Matt Weiters, Nick Dini

First Base Stud: Freddie Freeman ($4,400 FD) is hitting third behind two of my favorite bats today in Albies and Acuna. He has 11 hits in his last six games and gets the Marlins bullpen today. Hector Noesi pitches for the Marlins and he is gonna go down fast (more analysis under Braves bats listed below). Freeman is hitting .342/.684 .SLG in August. A small bonus is I tend to like bats that have also hit in a home run derby in the park they are playing in before, which Freeman has done in Miami.

First Base Value: Sam Travis ($2,900 FD) is hitting .241 ISO/.346 wOBA with four home runs in 54 ABs vs lefties this year. He should be batting fifth and gets the platoon advantage with the Red Sox. Opposing pitcher Patrick Sandoval (6.42 ERA in AAA) is in for a long (or short) day at Fenway. (see JD Martinez below)

Second Base: Ozzie Albies ($3,800 FD) has been thriving out of the two hole recently. He takes on Hector Noesi and the Marlins in what I expect to be a high scoring Braves day. Noesi has a 9 ERA this season (small sample size) with a 5.35 ERA on his career. Braves are one of my top stacks today. Albies is hitting .467/.844 SLG/1.333 OPS in August.

Second Base Top Value: Aledmys Diaz

Second Base Value: Starlin Castro ($2,200 FD) is just too cheap. He scored 75.1 FanDuel points in his last THREE games (I bet you didn’t know that). I do like Mike Foltynewicz pitching for the Braves today, and think they get the win, but I may be forced to take the value with Castro. At $2,200, you don’t need much for MLB DFS value.

Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve, Jeff McNeil, Rougned Odor

Third Base Base: Gio Urshela ($4,300 FD) of the Yankees has six home runs in five days. Over the last 15 days he is batting .467/1.067 SLG. Trent Thornton (5.33 ERA) is on the mound today and my guess is he didn’t sleep so well last night knowing who is he to face today. Yankees lost their last two in Toronto and only put up six runs total. My bet is they put enough on the board today to ensure a win and keep their playoff momentum building. If it ain’t broke…

Third Base Value: Nothing under 3k I like at all.

Honorable Mention: Josh Donaldson (to round out Braves stack), Alex Bregman

Short Stop: Carlos Correa ($3,900 FD) has six double digit MLB DFS fantasy outings in his last seven games hitting .368/.737 SLG with two homers. Asher Wojciechowski (R) is on the mound for the Orioles and does have some strike out ability however he has also given up nine runs in his last nine innings. The Astros just put up 23 runs last night so the odds are not in Asher’s favor today.

Short Stop Value: Didi Gregorious ($3,200 FD) is too cheap. Before yesterdays goose egg he was on a six game hit streak. I expect the Yankees to put up a lot of runs today on Trent Thornton and DiDi is batting third (check lineup when it drops). Gregorious hits better on the road .308 vs .200 and is in a good bounce back spot this afternoon.

Honorable Value: Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson $2,200

Outfield Stud: Ronald Acuna Jr ($4,400 FD) has 14 homers agains the Marlins in 33 career games. As a Braves fan, I know he hates the Marlins (thank you Jose Urena) and wants to take them deep every AB. He is also HOT right now scoring double digit FanDuel points in nine of his last 11 ABs. During that span he also has seven home runs. He faces Hector Noesi and the Marlins bullpen. The last, and only start, for Noesi this year he gave up five runs in five innings. Acuna lock button.

Outfield Stud 2: JD Martinez ($4,500 FD) mashes lefties and gets Patrick Sandoval today. He had a respectable outing vs the Reds his last start only surrendering two runs in five innings with eight K’s, but that isn’t going to happen again today. Sandoval has a 6.42 ERA and a 11.6% walk rate in AAA this year. Martinez hits lefties better than anyone on the Sox and carries a .400/.576 .SLG/1.333 OPS on the SEASON.

Honorable Mention: Michael Conforto, Mike Tauchman, Yordan Alvarez, Max Kepler

Outfield Mid: Aristido Aquino ($3,600) has to be mentioned after hitting three homers just last night. In his brief MLB career he is hitting lefties .833 ISO/.824 wOBA. Of course these number are bit inflated because of sample size but there is not doubt the Aquino has been impressive. Southpaw John Lester (.439 ERA) is on the mound, and although not terrible, giving up multiple home runs games is in his wheelhouse. Look, Aquino isn’t going to hit three home runs again, but he will be trying for one. I do have concerns about the Cubs not pithing to him in the zone like they did late in last nights game (after he hit three bombs). Either way Aquino is getting on base. He feels safe.

Honorable Mention: Chris Owings, Cameron Maybin, Brian Goodwin

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/11 DFS Pitching Picks: A Good Day For Arm Wrestling

5 years ago

written by

Unlike Saturday’s slate, the Sunday 8/11 DFS pitching schedule brings good tidings for those who seeking top end pitchers. All three formats are well-stocked with options, including a sleeper or two that has a chance to deliver surprise numbers.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Check me out on Twitter @BCWilliams71

8/11 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. WSH

DK ($11,600) FD ($11,700)

deGrom has fattened the wallets of many over his last 15 starts, scoring at least 40 FanDuel points 11 times, with his 49 point effort in his previous start against the Marlins leaving him a point shy of four straight starts with at least 50 points. Obviously, starting deGrom as your SP1 will impact the coin you’ll spend on offense, but when you’re getting 11.45 K/9 with just 2.2 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard, you’ll spend it and do so smiling. deGrom sets the pace by hitting first pitch strikes at 66.5% and is still putting up good numbers despite not maintaining the off-the-charts pace he had in 2018.

Most pitchers will take a 4.9 WAR a this point of the season, but that — along with a RAR of 43.3 — is what deGrom carries into this contest. He’s more dominant at home in Citi Field, where deGrom has struck out 84 batters over 68 innings at home with a 3.18 ERA. He’s more unforgiving to the Nationals, holding them to an 0.75 ERA while putting together an 18:4 K/BB rate and a composite .167 allowed against them.

Justin Verlander, HOU at BAL

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

Most will consider deGrom the better play, but you can’t fault anyone plugging Verlander as their SP1. JV has four straight starts of at least 58 FanDuel points and faces a Baltimore lineup bereft of quality in its lineup, a huge reason they are 24th in OPS and 25th in wRAA. He’s pushing for a second straight season of striking out at least 35% of opponents, and he’s still a legit Cy Young award candidate despite a rise in hard contact rate (40.8%) and an elevated HR/9 rate (1.68).

deGrom gets the edge because of his track record against the Nationals, but Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts and is on a four-start stretch of at least 10 strikeouts. I think you’ll get another 10-K from Verlander and another win that would give him a sixth straight win.

8/11 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Minor, TEX at MIL

DK ($9,600) FD ($9,200)

Minor hit some major turbulence in mid-July but has won his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Indians on Monday. One could say that Minor is having a career year, as his 31.3 RAR has already eclipsed the 29.6 RAR he recorded as a member of the Braves in 2012. He’s been inconsistent when it comes to FanDuel reduction, as his 28.95 FD points were his best output since scoring 34.55 FD against the Tigers on June 26.

The Brewers are hitting a combined .252/.312/.403 this month and are paying dearly for their all or nothing at all mindset, striking out 85 times in eight games. There is good potential for Minor to be able to exploit Milwaukee’s loss of Christian Yelich, who remains sidelined with back woes.

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. OAK

DK ($10,600) FD ($9.800)

Giolito has at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts and has shaken off the 9 points he produced at FD against the Cubs on July 6. He’s approaching 11 strikeouts per nine innings (10.86 K/9 to date). Giolito has continued to keep opposing batters from making max impact against him (30.9% hard contact rate) and has avoided the long ball despite a 41.1% fly ball rate.

This shapes to a good matchup for Giolito, as the Athletics have seen their bats go .233/.340/.454 over the past week. Oakland’s longball or bust mentality will work agains them considering Giolito allows opposing bats to hit just .203 against him at home this season while he’s delivered 70 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. What keeps Giolito from being a cash pitcher is the uncertainty that the A’s bats get dialed in early and catch Giolito off-balance.

8/11 DFS Punt Plays

Jakob Junis, KC at DET

DK ($7,900) FD ($8,600)

Junis comes off a 37 FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox and already has starts of 37 and 34 points against the Tigers this season. There is sneaky good strikeout potential in Junis, who averages 8.46 K/9 to go along with a slightly above league average 3.12 BB/9. The Tigers’ lineup won’t be able to fully exploit Junis’ weakness (his 1.56 HR/9 rate), this despite the fact the Royals hurler sports a 42.4% hard contact rate.

There’s a chance the Tigers might get one off him, but I think Junis is capable of setting the pace early with strikeouts before getting the Detroit bats to induce ground balls as a steady clip. This is a good pairing if you’re looking to go with deGrom or Verlander in a cash league or even Giolito in a PPS format.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

For my debut in MKF, I’ll go Astros-Orioles and take the shot on Asher Wojciehowski lasting long enough to get the over on strikeouts before Houston’s lineup sends him to an early exit.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For August 10

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Saturday August 10th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Stacks: Astros World

Houston Astros: They didn’t go bananas last night, but I didn’t really expect them to. Today is a different story. They go against Aaron Brooks and his 5.45 ERA. Brooks usually only goes a couple innings and when the Orioles try to stretch him out, he is getting hit. In his last two starts he has given up three home runs and eight earned runs. He does not have a single game this season where he has pitched over three innings and not given up a run. The Astros lineup is lethal. I am expecting Houston to be the highest scoring team on the slate. They have scored double digits in two of their last three games. As a team they are batting .325/.646 SLG/1.047 OPS in August. In 47 at bats vs Aaron Brooks the Houston Astros starters have only struck out five times. I will personally be stacking four Astros and home run hunting on the other positions. They are without a doubt my favorite MLB DFS stack.

Listed in order of preference: Yordan Alvarez, George Springe, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Robinson Chirinos. Breakdown and prices of my favorite MLB DFS bats are listed below.

San Diego Padres: They face Chi Chi Gonzalez at home tonight. Chi Chi has a 5.95 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He has never made it to six innings and has never given up less than two runs this season. The Padres have plenty of power in their lineup and have been hitting under the radar lately. I expect low ownership and high upside.

Listed in order of preference: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, Will Myers, Eric Hosmer, Josh Naylor, Francisco Mejia. Breakdown and prices of my favorite MLB DFS bats are listed below.

Position Rankings and Values

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud ($3,700 FD; $4,200 DK ) has nine home runs this season vs left handed pitching in 96 at bats. He is hitting leadoff with a .329 ISO/.411 wOBA vs Tommy Milone (L). He has a .433 ERA and has reverse splits, being worse at home. In his last four starts he has given up 15 runs. Travis d’Arnaud has not put up a fantasy goose egg since July 19th. You can play him with a safe floor and home run upside.

Catcher Value: Alex Avila ($2,600 FD; $4,000 DK) is batting seventh, on the road, vs. the struggling Kenta Maeda. Avila has seven homers and is hitting .329 ISO/.411 wOBA vs righties this season. Maeda has given up 13 runs in his last three starts, with two of those coming at home. Avila is cheap and has two home runs in his last two games and still nobody will be on him, besides us.

Value Catcher: Martin Maldonado TOP CATCHER

First Base Stud: Carlos Santana ($3,700 FD; $4,600 DK) is contributing every game and no one is talking about him. He has gotten at least six FanDuel points over his last 10 contests. He has a solid MLB DFS floor. He takes on Jake Odorizzi, who has been good some starts and bad some starts. In July he had a 7.43 ERA. The Indians are starting to heat up and I think they get to him today. Carlos Santana has 19 home runs on the season and is batting .269 ISO/.400 wOBA vs righties. I like Santana a lot.

First Base Mid Value: Yuli Gurriel ($3,500 FD; $5,300 DK) is tied with George Springer for most home runs against right handed pitching this year vs righties. It’s surprising, I know. He is cheap for an Astro, and will have six or seven bats in front of him I love. He should be getting on base, getting RBI and has just a good of chance to go deep as any Astro today, at a fraction of the price (on FanDuel). There is nothing not to like. He is batting .253 ISO/.384 wOBA on the season and gets to go against Aaron Brooks. He pays off.

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,400 FD; $5,400 DK) Houston is going off today, and that means Altuve will get a piece like always. He is batting second in my favorite stack vs Aaron Brooks. Altuve has three homers in his last six game and carries a .337 wOBA on the season. If Altuve doesn’t go deep a I would expect a couple hits, a couple runs and a couple RBI which would work just fine. Lock him in a second base and get cute somewhere else.

Second Base Value: Mike Brosseau ($2,700 FD; $3,600 DK) of the Tampa Bay Rays hits lefties well. Batting .256 ISO/.398 wOBA vs them for the year, Brosseau is due after a minor cold streak. I prefer to pay up at this position, but if forced to punt I think Brosseau makes sense.

Second Base Honorable Mention: Kestin Hiura

Shortstop Stud: Fernando Tatis ($4,500 FD; $5,600 DK) is on fire. Batting leadoff with three home runs in his last four games. He goes against Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.95 ERA) Just keep riding the train. Tatis is hitting .300/.633 SLG in August.

Shortstop Stud/Mid: Carlos Correa ($3,900 FD; $5,500 DK) 12.5, 34.9, 12.5, 12.2, 25.3, 9, 27.9. Those are Correa’s last seven FanDuel scores. He is officially back and not everyone knows it yet. He has 12 homers on his shortened season this year vs righties. He hits .277 ISO/.381 wOBA and should be batting sixth behind five other studs. Lock button.

Third Base Base: Jose Ramirez ($3,500 FD; $4,300 DK) has gone against Jake Odorizzi 20 times and hit three home runs off him in his career. He is batting .211 ISO/.335 wOBA this year but has been hot lately with over 25 FanDuel points in each of his last four games. I like hot streaks, and he is on one, vs a pitcher he owns. Sold.

Third Base Mid/Value: Miguel Sano ($3,500 FD; $5,000 DK) has 11 home runs on the season and hits .288 ISO/.362 wOBA vs righties. He is batting third vs Adam Plutko. He has given up at least a run in every single MLB game he has ever played in (11). It feels like the right spot for Sano with an Indians team that should win this game.

Outfield Stud: Yordan Alvarez ($4,300 FD; $5,800 DK) We are targeting Aaron Brooks. Alvarez bats fifth and is swinging that bat just as well as any Astro right now. He has nine home runs vs righties and hits .325 ISO/.458 wOBA. Alvarez is also HOT with 12 hits, eight RBI, four runs and two homers in his last seven games. Stack Astros and figure the rest out.

Scratched Outfield Mid: Will Myers ($2,800 FD; $3,900 DK) also goes against Chi Chi Gonzalez. Myers should be batting sixth. He has been somewhat cold but I like him to get back on track today. He has nine home runs and hit .308 vs righties this year.

New Outfield Mid: Aristides Aquino, Josh Naylor (prefer both over Grisham)

Outfield Value Trent Grisham ($2,900 FD; $3,300 DK) is batting leadoff vs Pedro Payano. While I don’t think Payano is terrible, I do think the Brewers get to him. Grisham is consistent in his brief MLB career. He is batting .278 ISO/.359 wOBA and has one home run in his first seven games. Tonight will be his second home game and I bet he tries to show off after putting up zero stats last night. I like him as a cheap MLB DFS outfielder.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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