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Houston Astros

The MLB DFS Stacks and Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 7

5 years ago

written by

This Sunday September 7th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Stacks

Houston Astros

The Astros face Yusei Kikuchi (L) who has a 5.36 ERA and seems to be losing some control lately. In his last two starts he has only struck out two in nine innings. He has faced the Astros twice this season and given up a total of nine runs while not getting past the fifth inning in either contest. The Astros look to be in a prime MLB DFS spot to get to Kikuchi early again tonight. Statistacally the best bats are Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. I break down each of my favorite bats below.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves take on the Washington Nationals and Austin Voth tonight. The Nats are not comfortable extending Voth and has already said he is not going past the fifth inning (if he makes it there). Then the Braves get to go against the Nationals bullpen for the next four innings. The Braves are hot again, winning 16 of their last 18, and I don’t see that slowing down tonight. Best MLB DFS bats are Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies.

Oakland A’s

Oakland really should give Zimmerman a lot of trouble tonight. They truly do have elite bats. Zimmerman has a 6.03 ERA. While he has been serviceable lately, by only giving two runs in each of his last three contests, he can also implode. I am really like what I am seeing from the A’s bats lately and if they roll out the right lineup, in the right order, then there should be fireworks. Oakland is trying to hang in this playoff hunt. Give me Mark Cahna, Matt Olsen, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Jurickson Profar for MLB DFS.

L.A. Dodgers

Tonight’s MLB DFS theme is stacking hot bats vs below average pitchers. The elite Dodgers get to face Tyler Beede after a disappointing loss Friday night. Beede has a 5.61 ERA and has given up at least one run in 19 of his 20 starts. The Dodgers get some redemption tonight and lay it on thick in what appears to be greatMLB DFS weather in Southern California. Joe Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and the Fresh Prince.

Honorable Mention: Mets

Catcher: Will Smith ($3,000 FD) has 10 homers since getting called up in the bigs and bats .456 ISO/.439 vs righties (like Tyler Beede) this season. Last night Will Smith struck out to another Giants reliever named Will Smith with stranding a man on in the ninth and ending the game for the Dodgers by being down one run. Tonight he gets his redemption and makes Uncle Phil proud.

Catcher Pivot: Tyler Flowers

First Base: Freddie Freeman ($3,900 FD) is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot. He hits to a .302 ISO/.432 wOBA this year with 30 home runs. He bats vs Austin Voth, in what will be a limited appearance before the Nats bullpen comes in to attempt to limit damage. Freeman hasn’t homered in four games and has let the rest of the Braves to the majority of the damage. Tonight he should pull his weight and hopefully hit one in the Chop House.

First Base Pivot: Pete Alonso; Yuli Gurriel

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD) ranks as the best bat on the Astros for me tonight. He crushes lefties and Kikuchi shouldn’t be much competition for the former MVP. He swings to a .378 ISO/.468 wOBA on the season vs southpaws and has multiple hits in his last two games. When Altuve gets hot, you play him in MLB DFS.

Second Base Pivot: Max Muncy; Ozzie Albies; Jurickson Profar

Third Base: Matt Chapman ($3,800 FD) has 21 homers this season vs right handed pitching. The Oakland core is lethal and if they can get this lineup turning over I expect big things. Chapman hits at a .249 ISO/.418 wOBA. Chapman usually doesn’t put up a goose egg in MLB DFS. I expect him to get on the base a couple times at minimum, but I am playing him because he should be able to get one in the bleachers tonight.

Third Base Pivot: Josh Donaldson (HOT)

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,400 FD) is on a tear right now. He has scored 27.9,13,21.7,18.5, 12.5 and 19.2 FanDuel points in his last six contests. He is hitting at a .333 ISO/.440 wOBA vs lefties with 11 home runs. Things are not going to get any harder for him once a right handed pitcher comes in after Kikuchi either. Don’t overthink him, play the hot bat in one of my favorite MLB DFS stacks.

Shortstop Pivots: Marcus Semien; Ahmed Rosario

Outfield: Yordan Alvarez ($4,200 FD) is another Astro I love. With the second most home runs on the team vs lefties Alvarez will be making my main lineup. He swings to a .350 ISO/ .411 wOBA and will be in the sweet spot of the Houston lineup. He will have the opportunity to get some RBIs as well and have the back of the Astros lineup push him around the bases. Very safe.

Outfield: Cody Bellinger ($4,600 FD) is the most expensive outfielder today but has a fantastic matchup vs Tyler Beede. I will do my best to get him in, and with some cheaper pitching options today, I think it is doable. He swings to a .343 ISO/.441 wOBA this season and is of course always a home run threat. You need that from him tonight if you pay up. Joc Pederson is a great play as well. I rank them 1A and 1B on the Dodgers.

Outfield: Mark Canha ($3,400 FD) The A’s are priced pretty good today for what I expect them to do vs Jordan Zimmerman. The core of this lineup all has the chance to go deep honestly but Canha statistically has the best shot. He hits to a .274 ISO/.418 wOBA with 17 homers on the season vs righties. Get him in your Oakland MLB DFS stacks.

Outfield Pivots: Ronald Acuna, Ramon Laureano, Matt Joyce

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for September 1

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight-game main slate (10 games on DK). I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Stack: New York Yankees

vs. LHP Sean Manaea (COL): 6.00 Runs

Sean Manaea is back for his first start in the show since having surgery for a small tear in his shoulder. He doesn’t look to be on a pitch count, he threw seven scoreless innings while only allowing two hits in triple-A Las Vegas on Augugst 23rd. He comes into Yankee Stadium sporting a lofty .289 wOBA, .398 OBP, and .275 OBP against righties in 2018. If he were on a pitch count I would be more into the Yankees. Manaea had a good 2018 campaign and he is coming off eight days of rest. He also showed us in his latest minor league game he can pitch without restriction. The Yankees are slashing to a massive .434 wOBA, .325 ISO, and 175 WRC+ to lefties over the last month.

Preferred Stack:DJ LeMahieu ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Aaron Judge ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), Gleyber Torres ($4000 FD|$4800 DK), and Gary Sanchez ($4000 FD|$4600 DK).

MLB Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Wilmer Font (TOR): 5.90 Runs

The Astros continue to ride their strong hitting averages, slashing to a .402 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 158 WRC+ recently against righties. Wilmer Font maintains a 1.76 ERA in the month of August (15.1 IP). He does tend to struggle to left handed batting (.364 wOBA, .529 SLG). I’m not to crazy about any of the righties other than George Springer and Yuli Gurriel. The core lefties (Brantley, Springer) are my top plays in this lineup.

Preferred Stack: George Springer ($4200 FD|$5400 DK), Michael Brantley ($4000 FD|$4900 DK), Yordan Alvarez ($4100 FD|$5700 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3700 FD|$5000 DK).

MLB Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez (CWS): 5.75 Runs

I am really loving the Twins again right now. Spencer Turnbull does just enough to escape it seems. He is also sitting in front of one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Twins have been surging against righties the last few weeks, boasting a .361 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .352 BABIP. This is an easy tournament play that may go overlooked and underplayed.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Stack: Chicago Cubs

vs. LHP Gio Gonzalez (MIL): UPDATE

Preferred Plays: Kris Bryant ($3900 FD|$4400 DK), Nicholas Castellanos ($3200 FD|$4700 DK), Anthony Rizzo ($3900 FD|$5200 DK), and Ian Happ ($2600 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. LHP Danny Duffy (KCR): 4.50 Runs

Preferred Plays: Trey Mancini ($3600 FD|$4400 DK), Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$4300 DK), Hanser Alberto ($2900 FD|$4100 DK), Jonathan Villar ($3600 FD|$5200 DK). Pedro Severino ($3700 DK).

Pitching

Patrick Corbin LHP (WSH): 3.00 Runs
Michael Pineda RHP (MIN): 3.75 Runs
Charlie Morton RHP (TAM): 3.50 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 1

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks: Cole Lotta Whiffing Going On

5 years ago

written by

If the 8/27 DFS Pitching Picks was Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich, then the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks feels like the last overpriced microwave “chicken sandwich” at the local gas station.

Outside of another gem of a pitching matchup in Houston and Thor wielding his mighty hammer at Citi Field, the rest of the day’s slate is, well, bad.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200)

Cole will draw a high percentage of users, especially in FanDuel where he’s recorded at least 40 FD points in nine straight starts dating to June 30. He’s coming off his third start of at least 60 FD points in this run, a 67-pointer against the Tigers last Thursday. Cole currently leads the Majors in ERA+ with 163, due in part to his ability to humiliate hitters at offensive-friendly Minute Maid Park (.178 OBA). Since the All-Star Break, Cole has been downright frightening, running a 6-0 mark with 68 strikeouts over 47 innings, raising his strikeout rate to 37.3%. Ranked sixth in FIP at 2.98, Cole gets to a face a Rays team that was hitting just .202/.233/.323 before Tuesday’s beatdown where they managed just one run on seven hits. Play. Him.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000)

Friendly piece of advice: leave Cubs hitters alone if you’re banking on homers from your DFS lineup. Syndergaard has allowed just one homer in his last 54.1 innings, which explains the 28.7% hard contact rate he’s allowed. His fastball has expanded its bite, kicking up to 97.7 mph, as Syndergaard has increased his usage of premium gas to 58.6% of the time. Not quite in a run like Cole’s, Syndergaard has still produced a run of eight straight starts of at least 30 points at FanDuel that includes four starts of at least 46 FP. If you’re looking to save money but want an elite arm for cash game purposes, Syndergaard’s the play. Opponents are batting just .207 against him since the ASB while also allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000)

Man, it’s tough to suggest Yarborough after watching the Astros wear out Charlie Morton and the Rays bullpen for 15 runs on 18 hits Tuesday night. However, Yarborough is going to make more than one DFS’er think twice about a potential Astros stack. You’d think Yarborough’s home/road splits would tilt strongly toward dominance at the Trop, but you’d be wrong. Outside of Tampa Bay, he sports a 2.21 ERA and .174 OBA with just four homers allowed. Yarborough has elevated his strikeout rate to 22% and a K-BB% of 19%. Another reason to be hesitant on Astros bats tonight: Yarborough’s 29.4% hard contact rate allowed. Oh, here’s one more: an overall HR/FB% of just 8.8%. Forget Tuesday night and take your chances that Yarborough will meet a far better fate than Morton.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000)

Oh, the risk tolerance here. Scherzer himself said he’s not “out of the woods,” and it showed in the four innings and 71 pitches he tossed against the Pirates in his first start back from the DL. Name value and opponent are the only reasons why he’s suggested here, and while Scherzer’s proclaiming he’s not all the way back, there’s still the prospect of him delivering 35-40 points without getting to the seventh inning considering the Orioles are 20th in batter’s strikeouts and 26th in lBA (.252). B-More is also 22nd in adjusted batters runs (-65.3), making them a potentially nice blend of lousy that goes well with a hurler that has struck out 34.8% of the batters he’s faced. Overlooked in the midst of Scherzer’s clashes with injuries is a sharp reduction in fly balls, as it has gone from from seven straight seasons of at least 41.6% to 37.8%.

I strongly suggest NOT going with Scherzer in cash games. The risk far outweighs the rewards. While hesitant to add him here, facing the Orioles at home makes him more a GPP option.

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700)

Maeda has 49 and 43 FD point outing in two of his last three starts, with a 32 FD pointer sandwiched in between. His K game has shown up in his past two starts, having struck out 18 batters despite pitching a combined 10 innings. Don’t expect him to eclipse more than 85-90 pitches, but expect the whiffs to keep coming as Maeda continues to use his change up as an excellent third complement to his heater and slider. Madea has gone from using his changeup 15.2% of the time in 2018 to 24.2% this year at the expense of reducing the frequency of his fastball (44.4% in 2018, 37.7% this season).

He gets something of a dream matchup in the Padres, who have gone .182/.254/.278 with 2.1 runs per game over the past week. San Diego batters are whiffing nearly nine times per game in that span, making Maeda a sneaky good punt play for the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Fantasy Stacks: Winning Edge for August 23

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 13-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Fantasy Stack: Houston Astros

vs.LHP Jose Suarez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

**Low Risk

Jose Suarez takes the mound for the Angels tonight and he will be facing the power packed Houston Astros. Suarez has been anything but good, allowing righties to slash to a .431 wOBA, .630 SLG, and .417 OBP. He has allowed 33 earned runs across 35 innings pitched to them. Suarez struggles with the long ball, allowing 2.70 HR/9 backed by a 42% flyball and 44% hard contact rate. He has allowed at least four earned runs or more in his last four starts. Pretty steep price to pay here for the Astros, but they continue to slash above their season averages for the month of August and get another great matchup here tonight.

Preferred Plays: George Springer ($4100 FD|$5300 DK), Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3300 FD|$5200 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

The Brewers come in behind the Astros for second highest IRT on the slate (as of 5 AM EST). They will face an inconsistent Merrill Kelly, who has an ERA of 5.60 on the road compared to his stingy 3.66 ERA at home. Kelly has pitched the worst he has all year in the month of August, allowing batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .571 SLG, and .373 OBP. Milwaukee isn’t showcasing a bunch of power in their lineup right now, but they are getting on base and creating runs as indicated by their 117 WRC+ to righties over the last two weeks. I’ll take the over on this one and look for some extra base hits from the Brew Crew.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Fantasy Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Fantasy Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): 5.15 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Nelson Cruz ($3800 FD|$5800 DK), Mitch Garver ($3200 FD|$4900 DK), Miguel Sano ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and CJ Cron ($3000 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP RHP Anthony DeSclafani (CIN): 4.50 Runs

**High Risk

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), Starling Marte ($3600 FD|$5400 DK), and Adam Frazier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK),

Pitching

Jack Flaherty RHP (STL): 3.25 Runs
Lance Lynn RHP (TEX): 3.90 Runs
Vincent Velasquez RHP (PHI): 3.90 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

written by

Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/21 DFS Pitching Picks

5 years ago

written by

Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. DET

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.

Charlie Morton, TB vs. SEA

DK ($11,100) FD ($11,600)

Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.

This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($11,400) FD ($11,000)

Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.

Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.

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8/21 DFS Pitching GPP Picks

Mike Minor, TEX vs. LAA

DK ($10,400) FD ($9,300)

He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.

Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. NYY

DK ($9,600) FD ($7,700)

This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.

That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. WAS

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,200)

Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.

The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Hitting Stacks: Winning Edge for August 21

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Hitting Stack: Houston Astros**

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.35 Runs

**Low Risk

The Astros offense has come back down to reality as of late after going on a heater for the last month. This is still a dangerous lineup and they get a favorable matchup against LHP Daniel Norris. He is having an average season, owning 4.82 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA. Norris has a GB rate of 41% and a BABIP of .318. He is allowing 1.68 HR/9. His splits are pretty identical so i feel comfortable going R or L through this Astros lineup.

Preferred Plays: Yordon Alvarez ($4300 FD|$5500 DK), Alex Bregman ($4500 FD|$5200 DK), George Springer ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), and Jose Altuve ($4400 FD|$5100 DK).

MLB Hitting Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Drew Smyly (BOS): 6.60 Runs

**Moderate Risk

As of now the Red Sox hold the highest implied run total on the slate. They get a weak left handed pitcher in Drew Smyly, who had a flash of greatness when traded to the Phillies, but now he seems to be back to his normal 7.00+ ERA self, giving up four or more runs in his last three starts. Smyly is allowing a massive 47% hard contact, 46% fly ball rate, and 2.81 HR/9. I have a tough time paying the premium salary for these Red Sox players with the fantasy output we’ve been getting in return lately, but they should be one of the top owned stacks tonight.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Hitting Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Thomas Pannone (TOR): 4.25 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. LHP Caleb Smith (MIA): 5.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Adam Duvall ($2900 FD|$3800 DK), Josh Donaldson ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Ozzie Albies ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Charlie Culberson ($2000 FD|$3600 DK).

Pitching

Adrian Houser RHP (MIL): 4.20
Yu Darvish RHP (CHC): UPDATE
Walker Buehler RHP (LAD): 4.25 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Fantasy MLB Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 19

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks. All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

Fantasy MLB Stack: Houston Astros**

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET): 7.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Edwin Jackson has disappointed a lot of people his last few starts. He has actually fared well against struggling teams like the Red Sox and Mariners. Today is a whole different story though. Jackson has the displeasure of taking on the most talented team in MLB, the Houston Astros. The Astros are on fire right now, slashing to a .378 wOBA, .272 ISO, and 143 WRC+ against righties. Jackson maintains his 8.00+ ERA, is allowing a massive 3.40 HR/9, and has a BABIP of .331. The cards are obviously stacked against him tonight and although he has had some decent performances, I highly doubt he will have one against this Astros squad. Eat the chalk, play the Astros.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Los Angeles Angels

vs. LHP Kolby Allard (TEX): 5.80 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Angels come in with the second highest run total today and a get a major boost at Globe Life Park. We are looking at 101 degrees first pitch. The Angel’s have struggled mightily this month, slashing to a .211 wOBA, .130 ISO, and 28 WRC+. These are awful hitting numbers are I have hard time getting here for a full stack even with a ball park boost and LHP on the mound. I do like a few pieces here. Allard has looked decent in his first two starts away from Arlington, striking out 5 or more and allowing 3 runs or less in 5 innings pitched. Texas will presumably roll out five righties against Peters, I do like the Rangers as well.

Preferred Stack: Mike Trout ($4900 FD|$5600 DK), Albert Pujols ($2900 FD|$3800 DK), Justin Upton ($3500 FD|$4500 DK), and David Fletcher ($3000 FD|$3900 DK).

Fantasy MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles**

vs. RHP Jorge Lopez (KCR): 5.50 Runs

**High Risk

The Twins actually have the slight edge over the Orioles for implied run total but I like the O’s today for less ownership. The Orioles are hitting the best they have all season in the last two weeks, slashing to a .332 wOBA, .235 ISO, and .321 WRC+. Their offensive struggles outweigh the good days but when they are making good contact the runs seem to pour in. Jorge Lopez owns a 6.51 ERA, 5.44 FIP, and 4.64 SIERA. He is allowing 1.89 HR/9 and .321 BABIP. Not sure if I’ll get to a full stack here but I do like a few pieces.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

Fantasy MLB Stack: Minnesota Twins**

vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

**Low Risk

Fantasy Team Stack: Cincinnati Reds**

vs. LHP Eric Lauer (SDP): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Phillip Ervin ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), Aristides Aquino ($4500 FD|$5000 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($3800 FD|$4600 DK).

Fantasy Team Stack: Kansas City Royals

vs. LHP John Means (BAL): 4.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Jorge Soler ($3600 FD|$5500 DK), Chelsor Cuthbert ($2500 FD|$3500 DK), Hunter Dozier ($3800 FD|$5400 DK), and Whit Merrifield ($3200 FD|$5100 DK).

Pitching

Kyle Gibson RHP (MIN): 3.80
Marco Gonzales LHP (SEA): 3.50 Runs
Wade Miley LHP (HOU): 2.60 Runs
Zac Gallen RHP (ARI): 3.90 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

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