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GPP

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green greens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. In terms of actual football I am not terribly interested. The Rams should come out on top pretty comfortably. But in terms of fantasy we have several targets to take advantage of. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5/ -110 both ways Rams: -8.5 -110 both ways

Vegas sees this as a comfortable victory for the Rams at home with a pretty low total by today’s NFL standard. Both teams are stout defensively. But the Rams are much more talented on offense and Sean McVay is the coach and play caller that Matt Nagy thinks he is in his head. It is very much an expectation vs. reality meme when you put these two guys together.

When building showdown lineup you use game scripts to build your lineups as opposed to simply playing the best plays. Playing wide receivers when you expect a team to be down big early and pairing a defense with a running back that you expect to be up big are things that you need to think about. The key is picking the correct script with the correct player combination if you want any chance to be successful.

Captains:

Chalk: Matthew Stafford, Rams, $11,600:

Clear chalk today is probably no surprise to anyone. Stafford has been hyped up in the DFS community all offseason and the Rams running game did take a bit of a step back with Cam Akers out for the season. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are one of the better tandems in the NFL and regardless of how stingy the Bears can be at times there will still have to be some points scored from somewhere.

Pivot: Allen Robinson, Bears, $10,200:

I cannot sit there here writing a showdown article with the Bears and not include Allen Robinson as a captain play no matter who it is. He is the best offensive weapon by far and he regularly beats lockdown corners including Jalen Ramsey. Last season Robinson caught 4 passes for 70 yards with Ramsey as the shadow. I do not have a ton of faith in the Bears, but I never have and Robinson has always performed in spite of that.

Contrarian #1: Rams Defense $6,400:

10 points against, 2 picks, and four sacks for 15 DK points. That was the stat line in week seven against the Bears last season. I know the Bears now have Andy Dalton at QB but is that really any different? The Rams run a modified Seattle Cover three scheme which is potent when to have top level talent up front to force QB’s to throw early and out of rhythm and the Rams have arguably the best defensive front in the NFL

Contrarian #2: Sony Michel, Rams, $4,800:

This is where I will get a little different. With Stafford being the chalk it makes sense that players like Kupp and Woods are going to have the higher numbers but I am going to take some shots with new Rams running back Sony Michel. The starting nose tackle for the Bears Eddie Goldman is out, leaving a huge opening in their 3-4 defense. I do have some concern that this may be a split backfield situation with Darrel Henderson, but of the two I think Sony is the better option of the two.

Contrarian#3: Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp:

Using either Woods or Kupp is my final contrarian option and it really is a matter of personal preference. We did not really get anything in the preseason to tell us whether Stafford had a lean of one over the other and you can not use last season as a gauge because Goff could only get through two reads so they were the only choices most weeks. However, if you take a look at our projection model Woods is projected for 15.61 and Kupp is only 11.44 DK points. You know what we say here and if you don’t let me be the first to say: When in doubt, TRUST THE MODEL.

Kickers and defenses:

I do think that in this showdown a case can be made mixing in kickers and defenses. Especially defenses if your script involves the running game on either side. I prefer the Rams over the Bears given Chicago’s ineptitude offensively under Nagy and Andy Dalton’s leadership. I do plan on running a lineup with the Rams as my captain, just in case.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12

WIN 3 years ago

written by WIN

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet our guy Rocker just dropped his article for his favorite wide receivers so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own

I will come back to this on Saturday night and verify but a sub-5% Hill is going to find his way into some of my lineups no matter who he plays against. I know the Browns are very strong defensively but when has that stopped KC? It is Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill week in and week out, rinse and repeat. In the playoffs, just last season Hill went 8-10 for 110 yards. What is significant about that is the Mahomes left that contest in the third quarter with a concussion after 30 pass attempts (season average was 40). KC is projected to score 30 points and Hill’s prop is 6.5 Rec for 80 yards (14.5DK) and is a -140 odds to score (lowest odds in the game). So 20.5 points at under 5%. Yeah, I am good with that.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own

If you have not read my week one running back article, I talked at great length about Sanders, against the Falcons, in a Sirianni-led run game. In week one, at least in my opinion, the ownership numbers are the toughest to nail down in week one so I went out and check numerous sources and the conclusion is the same. Sanders will be under three percent. Hoping this holds, as the upside he provides can help you take down a GPP.

James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own

I never thought that in week one that I would have my cash game lock in my low ownership plays. But if we are the only ones who are on him that is great. The Jags should be greatly improved offensively and they are playing the Houston ~~Trash Cans~~ Texans, the single worst running defense in the NFL. Full stop. Robinson should see close to 20 carries and 3-4 targets. Robinson has the best odds in the entire game to score at +100 with an O/U of 91.5 rushing/receiving yards and 2.5 receptions (18DK points). I do not understand this. He should be 20% in this scenario but I will take this error on the part of other DFS players and take the cash without thinking twice.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own

The 3.3% ownership projection must be a result of AJ Brown missing practice leading up to the game day. While I think that is fair and worth keeping an eye on I also know that AJ Brown always misses mid-week practices leading up to game day. It has been a part of his maintenance for a couple of seasons (but this makes me question why Henry 8% but that is a different topic). Titans are favorites by 3 points, in a 53 point total game, against the fastest pace team in the league. Cardinals will blitz a ton but Ryan is a mobile QB who can avoid the rush and the Titans have used the play-action for two seasons to great effect. Oh yeah, and Tannehill has statistically been on par with Mahomes since he took over in Tennessee (a daily reminder) but for $1,600 on DraftKings.

Honorable mention: Justin Jefferson (6.28%), Terry McLaurin (5.71%), Robby Anderson (3.99%), Raheem Mostert (5.39%)

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and our Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 1 Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

We have finally made it! The temperatures are starting to drop to more livable levels, there is a clean crisp in the air, and week 1 NFL football kicks off on primetime tomorrow night. Shortly after that, kickoff Sunday will be upon us and here at WDS, we have all of the content that you will need to be successful this season. My content will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and Draftkings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. For those of you familiar with my MLB articles, I will be sticking to the same format here with a slight twist. My A, B, and C QB’s will then correspond to the A, B, and C stacks listed below, so the QB listed at B will then be the arm that you should stack with the skill position players listed in section B below. Focusing in on the main slate for week 1 NFL DFS, one of our best options at QB is without a doubt Kyler Murray ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD). Kyler and the Arizona Cardinals draw a dream matchup with a subpar Tennessee Titans defense that is a group that I will look to target early and often this season. This game has one of the highest totals of all of week 1 and that is because these two teams love to play fast and do not have historically strong defenses. Kyler is one of the few quarterbacks that truly has massive running upside, which is always something that raises his floor and we should look to get plenty of exposure to him in this spot.

B. While I tend to try to avoid looking at data from previous seasons since so much can change during the offseason, right now we do not have too much else to work with. A potential cheap sleeper option for us to look to in NFL DFS at the QB position is Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD). Jimmy G should carry virtually no ownership on such a large 13 game slate, as his game only has the 10th highest total on the week. He will save us a ton of salary and the Detroit Lions ranked dead last in the NFL in DVOA against the QB position last season. The Lions did not do much at all to improve their chances on the defensive end, so this may be the best matchup that Jimmy G sees all season as he fights to fend off the rookie week 1.

C. The final quarterback that I will be looking to target in my stacks for GPPs on kickoff Sunday is Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD). This may be the cheapest price that we see Trevor at all season, as the uncertainty surrounding a rookie’s first NFL start has led to cheap price tags and potentially depressed ownership. This is another amazing matchup for an opposing offense, as the Houston Texans have arguably the absolute worst defense in the entire league. Lawrence will be looking to get his NFL career started off on the right foot and this is the exact spot for him to do just that. These prices are too cheap for an athlete of this caliber, and although he does not have the best offensive weapons surrounding him, he has rushing upside that will always provide him with a solid floor, although this is a ceiling type of matchup for his debut.

The Stacks

A. The easy choice to pair up with Kyler Murray is of course his all-star wideout, DeAndre Hopkins. DHop is a top three wide receiver in the NFL, and he now has a few other targets to take a bit of the heat of the double team off of him. A.J. Green is long past his prime, but rookie Rondale Moore has been getting more buzz out of training camp and the preseason than nearly any non-QB rookie. If choosing two WR’s to pair with Murray in NFL DFS this week, I would avoid Green. As far as the bring-back goes, unless you have been living under a rock since the Super Bowl, you know that the Titans now have Julio Jones. You can of course use him as a way to correlate for this potential shootout, or you could go A.J. Brown, or both, but keep in mind that this is sounding very salary-intensive and you may need to punt at RB and TE if you end up going this route.

B. When looking at stack options for Jimmy G and the 49ers, we have more of a “non-traditional” stack as the best option here in their tight end, George Kittle. I am honestly more than fine ending the 49ers side of the stack there for NFL DFS purposes, but if you insist on getting exposure to a wideout with your quarterback, then Brandon Aiyuk is really the only option I would look to here. The benefit of a stack like this is that you can afford to pay up at tight end for Kittle since your quarterback and wide receiver positions will be saving salary. It is really ugly on the Lions side of the football and it will be all season, so if you are looking to do more of a full game stack, this is not the way to do it. I cannot, in good faith, recommend bringing this stack back with absolutely anyone on the Detroit side of the matchup.

C. To close out my very first NFL DFS article, we have some intriguing pieces to look at on the Jacksonville side of the field. The Jags added veteran Marvin Jones to their young receiving core that includes DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. I plan to take more of a wait and see approach with Jones, as I fully expect Chark and Shenault to lead this receiving core this season. They are clearly the top two options to stack up with Trevor Lawrence, and I would definitely avoid the TEs from this team for now, as Jacob Hollister has proven that he is largely useless when he was on the Patriots. Similar to the Lions, we should tread very lightly with the Houston side of this game, as this team is destined to be one of the bottom teams in the entire league in 2021/2022. If Watson does not get thrown into jail before this game kicks off, then we can look to Brandin Cooks, but I will never say any Houston player is a must play in any stack.

I am sure that you are all as happy as I am that the long wait is finally over. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 1 Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.

Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds

Cash:

James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Tour Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the FedEx Cup Playoff finale. The Tour Championship will guarantee some big paydays for this entire field, with the winner taking home 15 million dollars. The DK field is comprised of only 29 players but Patrick Reed should be added which would round out the 30 person field. We will talk about course dynamics and roster construction on Tuesday’s PGA Livestream so make sure to join us there at 8:00 EST. Please keep in mind starting strokes apply here (which we will also talk about on the PGA show). My focus this week is to be a little more contrarian than normal in GPP as there will be some mega-chalk with this week. Let’s get to the Tour Championship picks.

Jon Rahm (13000) – Rahm begins this tournament four shots behind pre-tournament leader Patrick Cantlay, but that doesn’t concern me at all. Rahm is playing better golf than anyone and I expect him to prove he’s the best golfer on the planet this week. He starts at -6.

Tony Finau (11000) – He’s in excellent form (other than a pedestrian showing last week), but he’ll only be a play for me if his ownership is relatively low (relative to the rest of the 10k and above range). He starts at -8.

Dustin Johnson (10700) – I think DJ will end up being relatively contrarian since most people will choose to pay up for a star in better form or pay down for a guy like Rory or Xander (both of whom I also like). DJ isn’t in the best form but has some great East Lake and Tour Championship history. Won’t take much for him to get his groove back. He starts at -3.

Rory McIlroy (9300) – Great price plus great form plus great history. Rory is likely to be very popular at this price so feel free to fade him due to ownership, but he’s a great value and I’ll find a way to play him. He starts at -2.

Xander Schauffele (8900) – Another guy likely to be popular and for good reason. He absolutely destroys East Lake and illustrated that last year shooting a true 15 under par (that’s NOT accounting for starting strokes). He starts at -2.

Viktor Hovland (8000) – I’m trying to stay patient with Hovland as he was a disappointment last week. With that said, he did gain over 5.5 strokes BS and it was the short game that really failed him. At this price I’m willing to see if he can turn it around and climb the Tour Championship leaderboard. He starts at -3.

Scottie Scheffler (6800) – He was curiously bad OTT last week but great on APP. He’s way behind from a starting strokes standpoint but certainly has the complete game to climb the leaderboard. He starts at -1.

Hideki Matsuyama (6400) – A monster with the ball striking and simply needs to catch a good putter. It’s a tall order for Hideki to climb the Tour Championship leaderboard, but at this price I’m willing to invest (unless his ownership is prohibitive). He starts at -1.

Joaquin Niemann (5600) – With Berger and EVR likely garnering a ton of ownership, I’ll use Niemann as my GPP pivot. Niemann was great BS last week and was bad with the short game. I’m willing to take a chance on him to avoid some chalk (I do like Berger’s price so I will find a way to play him here and there despite his anticipated mega-chalk status). Niemann starts at -1.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’ve got some great NFL content already coming out so make sure you grab the best deal for you with our NFL package. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Tour Championship lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust features the Top 124 in the standings (125 minus Louis) and it is therefore a field that is packed with talent. This course will require all features of the golf game to be firing which means to be successful you’ll need to be good with the short and long game. We will talk plenty about course dymanics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with Joel and Spencer and myself so tune in at 8:00 EST for that. And now let’s get to the picks for The Northern Trust.

Jon Rahm (11500) – Just like anyone else, Rahm can sometimes have a bad putting tournament but he is absolutely elite in every other department. Only thing that can stop this guy in 2021 is Covid. Tough to play him at this price, but if that keeps his ownership down, I’m all aboard.

Jordan Spieth (10800) – The only knock on Spieth is that his long iron game hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders, but outside off that he checks all the boxes. Last 36 rounds he’s Number 1 in this field in the following categories that I’ve put into my model: BOB Gained, SG Par 5 and Draftking points. He’s also inside the Top 15 in the following categories: APP, PUTT, ARG, T2G, P4 450-500 and Bogey Avoidance. He’s got the all around game you’re looking for.

Abraham Ancer (9400) – The only issue with Ancer in this tournament is that you’re obviously buying the stock at its height as he’s coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. With that said, he’s been in good form for a while and has all-around game that we are looking for with the Ball Striking and the short game.

Scottie Scheffler (9300) – This guy hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the Reagan Administration. He’s also 2^nd in this field in BOB gained over the Last 36 rounds. Plenty of upside here at The Northern Trust.

Webb Simpson (8900) – Webb was a pick of ours last week because he had great course history and because it looked like he had finally turned a corner. He may not be the best course fit this week, but the corner appears to have been turned which makes this the right price.

Paul Casey (8700) – Seems like a very fair price for a golfer who is in great form and also has the all-around game to compete at this course. He’s great with the long irons and is actually a much better scorer than most people think as the last 36 rounds establish: 15^th in BOB gained, 2^nd in SG Par 5, 8^th in DK Points and 2^nd T2G. If he gets super popular then he may be relegated to cash only, but for now he can be used in both formats.

Jason Kokrak (7700) – Another golfer that has the upside to smash his soft price and who can pile up the DFS points in a hurry. His main issue is the SG ARG, but even with that he is still inside the Top 20 in my model (with the upside to finish much higher than that).

Shane Lowry (7500) – Lowry has some flaws OTT and with the PUTT but he really makes up for it on APP. If he can get things going OTT then I think he can be inside the Top 10 at the close of this tournament. A GPP play with some upside here.

Brendan Grace (7200) – Much like Lowry, he can be a little erratic OTT, but he makes up for it with great APP play and he can sometimes get red-hot with the putter. He has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments so the upside is there to finish high at The Northern Trust.

Charley Hoffman (7000) – He hasn’t played much golf at all lately and I think the time off will help him get back on track. Hoffman is a consummate ball striker, and quite frankly, does everything well. If he were coming in with some recent play and good form under his belt, he’d be priced 1000 dollars higher. I’m happy to take this leap.

Charl Schwartzl (6900) – The DFS community is sophisticated enough to not jump off of a guy due to an MC, but we’ll need to wait and see what happens with Charl after his very poor showing last week. He’s been in good form overall and I think he’s a value at this price in spite of burning plenty of lineups last week. A GPP consideration only.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – the metrics are starting to slip a bit for this DFS Darling, but he still rates out as 50^th in my model. He’s pretty weak OTT but he rates out above average on everything else I looked at.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 42-12. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Northern Trust lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.

Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4^th Top 5 in a row. Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP. The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever. If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).

Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course). His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.

Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course. Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open). Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting.

Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20? Perfect! He also happens to rank 2^nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1^st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).

Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers. The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter. Streelman can do all those things. He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here. His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.

Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag. I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).

Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut. The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5^th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds. The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game. With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful. I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.

Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form. He is a great value play here and likely to be popular. If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.

Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year. Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row. Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander. I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The WGC-FedEx St. Jude: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

We are in the stretch run heading toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour is back on American soil for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. This Par 70 7200 yard TPC Southwind course will test the complete game as golfers will need to be good in all areas. My focus will be on keeping it in the fairway and being good with the longer proximities (150-200 will be an emphasis), but I’m also looking for golfers that have the short game (ARG/PUTT) on these small Bermuda greens. This is another no-cut event. More on course dynamics, favored builds and players on Tuesday’s WinDaily Sports PGA Livestream which you can watch here at 8:00 EST. Let’s get to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Initial Picks.

Collin Morikawa (11000) – Collin lost strokes on APP last week in a fairly significant way and still managed a 4^th place finish. I don’t expect the APP to continue to fail him, which means this brilliant ball-striker will be contending again on Sunday afternoon.

Brooks Koepka (10600) – In three of his last four measured tournaments he’s gained over eight strokes ball striking (BS). That’s pretty incredible. His track record here is also incredible (2^nd, 1^st, 5^th over his last three efforts).

Louis Oosthuizen (9600) – I’m looking for ball strikers at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude who are in good recent form and who have good course history. Check. Check. Check.

Scottie Scheffler (9100) – The 9k range is rich with talent and I have no issue with Hovland, Cantlay or Berger but I’m going to take a shot with Scottie. He shows up in a big way in talent-laden fields, ball striking has been excellent and the putter can get hot.

Webb Simpson (8500) – There’s no reason to trust Webb right now, but that’s why he may be a great pivot and play in a GPP. He’s coming off a Top 20 at The Open which is pretty great considering where his game was immediately prior to that. He also has some good history here with a 12^th and 2^nd over his last two efforts at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.

Abraham Ancer (8300) – Ancer grades out very well in my model and really does check all the boxes in terms of hitting fairways, being superb with his long irons, being good on Par 4’s between 450-500, bogey avoidance and GIR. His upside may be capped, but he’s likely paying off his price either way.

Corey Conners (8100) – Another elite ball striker who just needs to find short game, which is more likely here because of the Bermuda greens. Be careful as his ARG game could get him into trouble. As for cash game potential I like Ancer (above) and English (below) a bit better than Conners.

Harris English (7600) – Over his last five measured starts he’s gained in BS. Over his last six measured starts he’s gained ARG. Finally, he’s gained PUTT in 5 of the last 6 measured rounds. He is putting the entire game together and he’s tremendous value at this price.

Tyrrell Hatton (7400) – Two missed cuts in a row should keep ownership down but he has great upside, not just in theory, but also in practice. At the Palmetto in June he gained 11.75 strokes BS on his way to a 2^nd place finish (thanks to losing 3 strokes with the putter). Bermuda is a preferred green for Hatton. Not a cash play but should be great savings and upside for GPPs.

Stewart Cink (6500) – He’s hit a rough patch with the putter which is part of the reason he’s missed two cuts in a row. But he’s only one month removed from gaining 9.42 strokes at The Travelers. You’re hoping he can turn the putter around and putt like he did earlier this year while also capturing some consistency with the ball striking.

Ryan Palmer (6500) – Palmer is the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event because the game has fallen off a cliff over the last few months. With that said, because the WGC-FedEx St. Jude has no cut, I’m more willing to push a few Palmer chips into the middle. He may not be good for 4 rounds, but he has the ability to pop for 2-3.

Jim Herman (6000) – He hits fairways and has a solid long iron game and that’s led to four Top 30’s in a row. He’s also gained in BS and in putting five tournaments in a row. Herman is an absolute no-name, but if you put these numbers next to a guy with a pedigree, he’d be priced a thousand dollars higher.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all WGC-FedEx St. Jude lineup changes and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comment

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Insight Sheet: 2021 AT&T Pro – Am

3 years ago

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 AT&T Pro - Am (though there are no amateurs' this year). Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pr...

3 years ago 0 comment

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GPP

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5/ -110 both ways Rams: -8.5 -110 both ways

Captains:

Chalk: Matthew Stafford, Rams, $11,600:

Pivot: Allen Robinson, Bears, $10,200:

Contrarian #1: Rams Defense $6,400:

Contrarian #2: Sony Michel, Rams, $4,800:

Contrarian#3: Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp:

Kickers and defenses:

WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own

James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own

Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own

NFL DFS: Week 1 Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

NFL DFS: Week 1 Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

GPP:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

Cash:

James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

The Tour Championship: Initial Picks

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

The Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

The WGC-FedEx St. Jude: Initial Picks

Insight Sheet: 2021 AT&T Pro – Am

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GPP

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5/ -110 both ways Rams: -8.5 -110 both ways

Captains:

Chalk: Matthew Stafford, Rams, $11,600:

Pivot: Allen Robinson, Bears, $10,200:

Contrarian #1: Rams Defense $6,400:

Contrarian #2: Sony Michel, Rams, $4,800:

Contrarian#3: Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp:

Kickers and defenses:

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own

James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own

Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own

GPP:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

Cash:

James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.