Tag:

GPP

WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week three and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. I had to push back release of this article but for good reason. Last night NFL Game Pass, after months of missed deadlines, finally released coaches film. For those who are new this year I am a huge proponent of using the coaches film to spot situational advantages based on formations and the normal game replays do not show the full field of view. So in addition to the bigger named guys I will now have a complete dart throw on two that I will add for you folks who still play in 150 entry contests. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Spread out (no QB over 9%)

RB: Dalvin Cook 17%, Saquon Barkley 14%, Joe Mixon 14%, Derrick Henry 13%, D’Andre Swift 13%

WR: Cooper Kupp 22%, Chris Godwin 17%, KJ Osborn 14%, Robert Woods 13%, Tyler Boyd 12%

***Late Addition: Nick Chubb is under 5% projected ownership on DraftKings with no Landry and Beckham in his first game back. He has only been getting around a dozen carries a week thus far, but this week I think the Browns will need to lean on him and use Hunt split out as a receiver. If he gets 20 carries at any point in the early season, this is it.***

Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26

Johnathan Taylor, Colts, $6,700DK/$7,000FD: 5.5%

For some reason, folks are forgetting about Jonathan Taylor Sunday and we are all over it at Win Daily. The Titans managed to hold Chris Carson to just 2.4 yards per carry but they gave up 2 touchdowns to him and at closer inspection that low YPC was more of a function of bad run blocking on Seattle’s part and less about the Titans front. The Colts line, while a little nicked up, is miles better than anything Seattle put on the field last week. With Wentz playing on two bad ankles he is going to need to lean on Taylor to bail him out with the short passing game instead of scrambling himself and he is good for a minimum of 15 carries every week. Taylor has slate-breaking upside in a plus matchup and he is coming in at a silly sub 5% number as everyone is jumping on Henry and Saquon this week.

Javonte Williams, Broncos, $4,900DK/$5,800FD: 4.3%

See my running back article as I touched on Javonte in depth there. The rookie is supremely talented and he has been getting the bulk of his work after taking the lead which the Broncos are expected to have pretty early on as a 10.5 point favorite.

Rob Gronkowski, Bucs, $5,800DK/$6,500FD: 5.5%

I love how people are still not believing that the Gronk resurgence is real. It is real ladies and gentlemen. Rob took a year off, got his body healthy, and is living the good life in Florida with his best buddy catching touchdowns. Last year he led the team with Mike Evans with 21 red-zone targets. This year he leads the team through two weeks with 4 red-zone targets and has seen over 80% snap share in each game compared to the 70% range in most of the last season. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that either people are scared of going with two tight ends in their DFS lineups or they are going with guys like Kelce, Hockenson, and Waller who are all expected to have big days. With no Antonio Brown this week and Jalen Ramsey covering Mike Evans, Gronk should smash and don’t tell Bruce Arians, but he doesn’t need to study the playbook to do it.

Adam Thielen, Vikings, $6,700DK/$7,600FD: 5.8%

What if I told you that that you could find a receiver who is in the highest total game of the day, who is his teams leading fantasy producer, who is playing against a bad and banged up secondary, who also happens to have a questionable workhorse running back? Then what would you say if I told you that you could get him at sub 6% ownership? Allow me to reintroduce you to Adam Thielen. We were ready to write Adam off before the season, but the Irv Smith Injury caused a big void in that offense. While everyone is going towards KJ Osborn at only 3.5K on DraftKings, Thielen leads the team in targets and touchdowns and is still a very reasonable 6.7k. If the name was Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, or Cooper Kupp and we were looking at the same scenario we would be looking at triple the ownership and we would be happy to do it. Be sure to put him in a lineup or two because if he sees another 8+ targets against the Seahawks we are looking at a big day for Adam.

Sub-1% MME GPP Play

Do not overuse this play as it has some huge bust potential but based on some film study and projections this is a play that I see coming in at next to nothing in terms of ownership and has the opportunity the have a strong outing. This week we get a cheap one that will will not kill you and afford you a chance to pay up elsewhere.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns, $3,000DK/$5,500FD:

My final low owned week 3 DFS play is a gross one. Let me be clear. Is Peoples-Jones good? Resounding no. Are the Browns the type of team to air it out? Also no. But with Jarvis Landry injured is Odell Beckham going to come back in his first game back from significant injury and take all of the targets? Also no. DVP just happens to be the right guy for the right routes against the right team. The Bears typically run a version of the Tampa 2 with what is called a 3-4 over concept, and against the Bengals last week they were running a lot over Cover 1-man and disguising cover two with that look. If they run these concepts again, they will almost certainly cheat to protect the run game, leaving huge openings about 10 yards deep where the post routes and crossing routes develop. People-Jones runs three routes almost exclusively. Go routes (which are protected by the outside leverage), post routes, and crossing routes. What was the route he was running last week when he had the ball knocked out? Post route. There were also a handful of plays last week where he also came free but Baker was not looking at his side of the field and he rarely comes off of the field during run situations since he is a decent blocker. DO NOT GO OVERBOARD here. He could get a goose egg, but from what I saw last week and the formations that I am expecting if he gets 4 or 5 targets and takes a crossing route downfield for a score I am not going to be shocked in the least.

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 3 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the game by game article that Adam put out as it has a ton of information for every single game on the slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26

****My Christian McCaffrey disclaimer is null and void this week but enjoy locking him in 100% of you lineups on Thursday Night Football****

***Note to all new players: Any players that I list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,600DK/$9,700FD):

I may have to include Henry with CMC as a weekly play in my Running Back DFS breakdown if he goes off again this week. For those who missed the boat on Stix telling everyone to get on the King Henry train last week, you have my sincerest condolences. You will not get him at 5% ownership at any point again this season. He is currently projected as one of the highest-owned running backs this week and will likely remain as such for the rest of the year. With the problems that the Colts are likely to have on the offensive side of the ball this week with a banged-up QB and offensive line, the game script has little chance of going in a direction that keeps Henry off the field. We are looking at another 25 carries and plenty of touchdown equity Sunday.

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,400DK/$7,700FD):

Back to the well again as Carson has another juicy matchup that will likely result in a score that is reasonable for cash game play. His yards per carry, touches, and receiving number were down/non-existent from week one to week two but Carson managed to sneak into the end zone twice. As far as matchups go, you couldn’t ask for more. The Vikings defense is weak across the board and the 55.5 point game total is the best on the slate. I expect plenty of people to target the passing game but Carson will get his usual 12-15 carries, 3-5 targets, and be in a good position for scoring opportunities again.

Saquon Barkley, Giants, ($6,500DK/$6,000FD):

The verdict is still out on this one but I think that week three is going to be the week that everyone decides to roster Saquon. While his production was underwhelming, his snap share went from 48% to 84% between week one and week two, he gets several extra days of rest playing last Thursday, and the Washington Football Team has held both the Chargers and Giants running backs to under 100 yards in the first two weeks. While the Falcons did reasonably well against the Bucs there are two differences. First, Saquon is infinitely more talented than Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette. Second, and more importantly, if you listened to our conversation about Dean Pees’s Falcons defense in week one, you know that it involves a ton of secondary blitzes, and how that can be attacked by mobile quarterbacks. Once a running QB burns Pees, he will account for it, leaving the second level wide open for a running back to break free. Barkley is too big for a safety, too fast for a linebacker. This is going to be fun. But sadly I do not think we can get him at low ownership. I hope I’m wrong.

Also Consider: Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook is out), Ty’Son Williams, Austin Ekeler

GPP:

Joe Mixon, Bengals, ($6,300DK/$6,700FD):

When it comes to running backs, especially in the modern era of football where shared backfields are the norm, volume is key, and nobody outside of Derrick Henry has more touches than the 49 of Joe Mixon through two weeks. While the Steelers defense is solid as ever Defensive end Carlos Davis and Linebacker Alex Highsmith have both missed practice this week and TJ Watt has been limited with a groin issue, giving us a sneaky opportunity for Mixon to break off some chunk plays at what is looking like depressed ownership. We saw last week against the Bears that Cincy is going to lean on the running game regardless of the game script or defensive strength. And with Big Ben and Dionte Hightower injured to go along with that horrid offensive front of the Steelers the Bengals should not find themselves in a position where they will need to completely abandon the run.

D’Andre Swift, Lions, ($5,800DK/$7,400FD):

At first, glance when you look at the Raven’s defense it looks pretty clear that the one strength they may have is slowing the run and the way to attack them is with the tight ends up the seams. While it is true that tight end coverage has been a huge issue, the underlying reason for it is also the reason that I want to roster Swift in GPP’s. The linebackers are failing terribly in pass coverage responsibilities. Malik Harrison and Patrick Queen have looked especially bad, seemingly forgetting their responsibilities multiple times a drive and leaving huge holes for running backs, full back, and tight ends to attack for huge gains. Swift is not giving us much in terms of rushing volume but his volume in the passing games gives him enormous upside this week in a game total of over 50. As always with him before rostering, check out his practice participation since he is still dealing with a groin issue.

Javonte Williams, Broncos, ($4,900DK/$5,800FD):

My final Running Back DFS play is none other than Javonte Williams. Yes, he ended up burning us last week but I am going right back to the well this week. The game total is pathetic against the Jets at 41 points but the implied total for the Broncos is 25.5 and Denver is a huge favorite. Two things stood out last week. First, Williams was close on three separate occasions to breaking loose for huge plays including two that could have been touchdowns. Second, and most importantly for this game 9 of Williams’s 13 carries last week and 21 of his 27 carries overall have come when the Broncos are tied or ahead. The Broncos should get a few extra short-field opportunities and if you have not seen this guy run yet, please go look. He looks incredible and will be taking over the lion’s share of the opportunities from Melvin Gordon sooner rather than later.

Also Consider: Chase Edmonds, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 3: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

Another week with some smash hits and some misses has come and gone. Let’s continue to try to keep the hits to a maximum and the misses to a minimum! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Colts draw one of the best possible matchups for an NFL passing attack in week 3 on Sunday, but I cannot in my right mind recommend rostering Carson Wentz, or his backup Jacob Eason. Another team that has an impeccable matchup for their passing game is the Baltimore Ravens and their QB who is potentially the best dual threat quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) will be facing off against the defense ranked 31st out of 32 in DVOA against the pass on Sunday afternoon, as the Ravens roll into Detroit listed as 8 point favorites. This leaves the Ravens with one of the top three highest implied team totals on the slate, and LJ is a massive part of every scoring drive that this team has. He will definitely cost us a pretty penny, but if we can find some cheap enough ancillary pieces then Lamar is definitely a priority for week 3.

B. Another team that comes to mind when we think of mobile quarterbacks with very high rushing floors is the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) has been shooting up the NFL MVP odds boards almost as quickly as his DFS salary has been shooting up across the industry. With the weapons that he has at his disposal, he is in for an unreal 2021-2022 NFL season. This is definitely a week to target these mobile QBs, as the two top rushing quarterbacks in the league also happen to draw the 2nd and 3rd best possible matchups for an opposing passing attack. The Jaguars defense has struggled to defend nearly everything through the first two weeks, and while their defense is only ranked 19th against the QB position in DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the pass and 24th in overall defense DVOA. This team has scored 38 and 34 points thus far this season, and I do not see the 30+ train stopping this week.

C. My QB3 was the smash spot last week, as I had Tom Brady listed in this spot and he proceeded to roast the pitiful Falcons defense. Daniel Jones ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) has the pleasure of drawing that exact same matchup, and while he could not be much further in skill from the goat, this is the best spot that he will find himself in all season and his price is extremely reasonable. With the high price tags of my first two QB options, I had to find us a cheap arm in an excellent spot for lineups where we want to spend more salary on our skill position players. As I mentioned, if Jones does not smash this week, then we should never play him the rest of this entire season outside of showdown slates. The Falcons are ranked 29th in team defense DVOA, 32nd in DVP against opposing quarterbacks, and 11th in situation-neutral pace of play. While this is obviously only a GPP type of play, even an arm lacking as much skill as Jones should see success in this week 3 matchup.

The Stacks

A. When it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, I tend to avoid any RBs like the plague due to their propensity to have goal line work vultured by Lamar. When it comes to stacking, you only want to pair RBs with your quarterback if they are heavy pass-catching RBs, and none of these Ravens backup runners really fit that bill. Therefore, this leaves us with a three man combo of Hollywood Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. I am really not very high on Watkins at all after he was essentially a useless ghost nearly every game in Kansas City. If he was useless with one of the best young quarterbacks of all time at the helm, then we cannot expect much from him with Jackson slinging passes. That leaves us with Brown and Andrews as our options for this stack, and we can bring it back with either Quintez Cephus, who looked really solid on Monday night, or T.J. Hockenson who caught a sweet touchdown pass on Monday.

B. You can essentially copy and paste what I said for the Ravens running game down here for the Cardinals. While Chase Edmonds does catch some passes, we pay the price for Kyler in the hope that he gets some rushing TDs, not that he dumps it off at the goal line to Edmonds. Luckily, the Cardinals have essentially zero tight ends that we need to worry about, because we already have our hands full at the wide receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Rondale Moore, and even the corpse of A.J. Green are all viable pass catchers for us to stack up with Kyler. I will continue to keep my lineups to a max of two of these guys, because again, there are only so many touchdowns to go around if we expect Kyler to run one or two in. For our bring-back, we should tread lightly with this Jaguars team as usual, and Marvin Jones is finally starting to see his price come up after being insanely underpriced through the first two weeks. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault are fine options, but definitely limit your lineups to one Jaguar pass catcher in case this team totally flops.

C. The final team that I will be stacking in tournaments for week 3 is the NY Giants, who do have some tight ends and solid receiver options for us to pair up with Daniel Jones. Engram is returning from injury and has not played a snap yet this season, so we will have to keep a close eye on him. If he is playing without a snap count or restriction, then he is definitely in play and Kyle Rudolph becomes a very risky option. If Engram is out again then we can look to Kyle Rudolph to hopefully get there for us by catching a touchdown pass. As far as the wide receivers go, Kenny Golladay has the squeaky wheel narrative after his outburst on the sidelines, and I expect we could see an explosive ceiling game from him on Sunday. Slayton and Shepard are also fine options, but I would prioritize Kenny G in all G-men stacks. As usual, the obvious two run-back options on the Falcons are Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley, as will be the case for what I expect to be this entire season.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 3: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 53 Chiefs -4

It goes without saying that this is going to be an explosive contest with several of the most prolific fantasy producers in the NFL. While we do have tons of points to be scored the player pool is relatively small so the tough part is going to be finding the cheap value play that will allow you to fit all of the studs that we want in our lineups.

Captains:

No need to get cute in your captain spot this week unless you want to donate. There are four or five guys you should play and no more.

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, $12,600

Do I really need to explain this one? If Derek Carr went off for 400+ yards what do you think Mahomes could do? He will be the chalk and for good reason. The Ravens are going to have an impossible task of running man against two 4.2 speed receivers and the best tight end in the league.

Pivot: Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $11,800:

The weakness of the Chiefs has always been the run game and that is the one thing that the Ravens and Lamar do exceedingly well. The run totals will be there regardless but in this game he will have to produce in the air if they are to have any chance at winning this game. Just keep in mind Lamar has only exceeded 300 yards passing two times in his entire career so temper you expectations as to what those passing numbers will be.

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $10,400:

If I do not use either Lamar or Mahomes I have a ton of confidence that Kelce will have a monster of a game and will be my #1 play outside of them. The Raiders last week took that man defense and shredded if for over 400 yards and they did it using Darren Waller to the tune of 10 catches, on 19 targets, for 105 yards, and a TD. The thing is, Waller was open way more than even what his stats show, Carr was just unable to get it to him. Mahomes and Andy Reid are not going to miss in that way. If for some reason the Raven do try to move into a zone coverage Kelce is still the big target to go to as they clear the zones out with Hardman and Hill, leaving Kelce free down the seem and in crossing routes. He is the cheat code for me today.

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, $10,600

The Ravens run tons of man concepts, cover one, and heavy pressure. All of these things can be exploited by the speed of the cheetah and the elusiveness of Mahomes. I am going to lean on Kelce but do not let that deter you from using Hill in a few captain spots. He is still in a smash spot and he gives you a little added boost with the potential for a return touchdown.

Contrarian#3: Sammy Watkins, Ravens, $7,800:

I do not think you should go any further down than the four players about but if you are desperate to find someone else as a captain you can get Sammy Watkins at 2% in a revenge narrative. We saw Sammy get 8 targets for 96 yards in week one and I think the Ravens will absolutely have to throw the ball to keep up. But if you do this please understand who we are talking about here. Watkins has made a habit of having a big week one only to do nothing for the rest of the season. It has happened multiple years in a row. I think most of the fantasy community is on to that as well so we are talking very high risk, very high reward.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 Flex Plays:

Mark Andrews
Ty’Son Williams
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Latavius Murray
Marquis Brown (Questionable, Ankle)
Mecole Hardman
Harrison Butker
Demarcus Robinson
Byron Pringle
Devin Duvernay (Questionable, Groin/If Brown is out Duvernay becomes very interesting play)
Chiefs Defense (Only using if paired with Hill)

Kickers and defenses:

I really do not think you need to go here today. The only justification I can make for it is if you need a cheap Harrison Butker as a final piece or if you are taking a high risk approach and pairing Hill with the D/ST to double dip on a long shot return touchdown. I am not messing with Tucker this week because if KC comes out hot kicking field goals is not going to do them any good and John Harbaugh knows it.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS: Week 2 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week two and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet Jason Mezrahi just dropped his article for his favorite tight ends so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Justin Herbert (12.43%), Dak Prescott (11.52%), Josh Allen (11.34%), Jalen Hurts (9.5%), Kyler Murray (7.5%)

RB: Najee Harris (22.85%), Chris Carson (17.5%), Austin Ekeler (17.23%), Darrel Henderson (17.00%), Ezekiel Elliott (15.85%)

WR: Keenan Allen (18.54%), Cooper Kupp (17.87%), CeeDee Lamb (15.80%), Amari Cooper (14.92%), DeAndre Hopkins (12.50%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7.1% OWN:

When I first looked at this slate I saw Chubb against the Texans and thought it would be chalk for sure but his ownership has stayed between 6-8%. While everyone gravitates towards the guys in my chalk report you are getting Chubb at the lowest ownership I think you will see on him all season against the worst run defense in the league. Do not be fooled by week one, Urban Meyer had no clue what he was doing and got down multiple scores before he realized his running backs were averaging 5 yards a carry. Chubb may only get 16 carries and two targets this week but it could legitimately be for 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,900DK/$6,300FD) 4.3% Own

Last week I was big on Sanders and while he did not go off, nobody named Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, or Christian McCaffrey did. He did however finish with 17.5 DK points and was a Kenneth Gainwell vulture from having a huge day and ending up on the Milli-Maker winning lineup at only 4% ownership. We find ourselves in what is possibly an even better scenario. If the casual fantasy player sees the 49’ers as the opponent they may fade, but those of us who know that defensive ends Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, defensive lineman Dee Greenlaw, and defensive back Emmanuel Mosley are all injured and most are expected to miss Sunday’s game. That leaves huge voids in the Niner’s defense. The run defense is especially vulnerable and even the Lions were able to shred San Fran with both running back on the ground and through the air with both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams catching 8 passes each and Williams averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Niners are a top defense in name only this week and if Sanders sees 15 carries and 6-8, targets his ceiling is as high as any running back in the NFL this week.

Allen Robinson, Bears, ($6,200DK/$7,200FD) 5.3% OWN

Did everyone forget that A-Rob was battling Jalen Ramsey all last week? No, Andy Dalton is not the best QB in the world but since when did a bad quarterback stop Robinson from going off? It did not turn into production but Dalton still targeted him 11 times in week one and guess who he is playing? That’s right folks, Dalton has a revenge game narrative on Sunday and the Bengals just got shredded by Kirk freaking Cousins for 351 yards and 2 TDs. Yet even knowing these things Allen Robinson is projected anywhere between 5-6% ownership in a game that should stay competitive. That is silly and disrespectful to a guy who caught 102 passes for 1250 yards and 6 TD’s with Nick Foles, and Mitch Trubisky, throwing him the ball in 2020 and 98 for 1147 and 7 with Mitch and Chase Daniels in 2019. Plain silly.

Antonio Brown, Bucs, ($6,000DK/$6,400FD) 4.4% OWN

What does AB need to do to convince people the he is back to his old form? After catching five of seven target for 121 yards and a touchdown you would think a matchup against a Falcons team that was smashed by the Eagles would garner a little more attention but I’ll take advantage all the same. Dean Pees mentioned the secondary when he arrived to the Falcons saying that “they are young” but what he forgot to add was “they are bad”. If Pees decides to blitz his corners Sunday which he is apt to do, Brady is going to have both Brown and Evans with plus matchups or blown coverages all day.

Honorable mention: Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Derrick Henry

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 2: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Well that was certainly an eventful week 1, with plenty of surprises around the NFL. This is a lookahead article though, so I will be turning the page to week 2. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My number one QB for week 1 worked out pretty well and I hope our members were able to profit off of it as I had Kyler Murray in this spot. It would be easy to just go back to him again and you definitely can, but I will get a big more creative here. One of my favorite quarterbacks to target for week 2 is Mac Jones ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD).Before you go calling me nothing but a homer, I have the data to back this up. First of all, those prices are insanely enticing for a quarterback that now has a real life NFL game under his belt, and also looked great in his debut to begin with. Mac had the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in their first NFL start in history. Now, he is rewarded with a matchup against the Jets, who rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass and 28th in total DVOA. While it is tough to put much emphasis on rankings after just one week, the Patriots are favored by nearly a touchdown in this spot and I expect an NFL coming out party for McCorkle on Sunday afternoon.

B. While my first QB was a smash hit last week, my second two left a bit to be desired for us, so let’s make sure that all three do well this week. A second quarterback for us to look to in GPP contests is Baker Mayfield ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD). Baker looked great on Sunday, as he lead the Browns (without OBJ), to a near wire-to-wire win over the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. OBJ has already been ruled out again this week, but it would have been foolish of the Browns to bring him back against the hopeless Houston Texans. The Texans are right there with the Jets, ranking second to last in DVOA against the pass, and Baker should be able to pick apart this horrendous defense with ease. The Browns offensive line was not great, but the Jets defensive line was the 6th worst, so Baker should have plenty of time as well. While the game may not be competitive, Baker will play a massive part in any sort of blowout.

C. While I do expect Mac to be extremely low owned, Baker should garner a decent amount of ownership this Sunday. Going back to the low-owned well with my QB3, I will be targeting father time, Tom Brady ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD). Brady looked sharp as ever on Thursday night, and all of the haters calling for him to drop off a cliff will have to wait at least another year. TB12 was still slinging absolute darts around the field like very few quarterbacks in this league can. So, what is his reward for this? A cakewalk matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that never seems to know how to play defense year after year. The ATL ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass, and also ranks 26th in defense against specifically the QB position. This game is also not expected to be very competitive, but again, if it is not then Tom Brady will have 3+ touchdowns to his name, with potentially a rushing TD from Leonard Fournette tossed in for good measure. Nobody will play Tom due to his nonexistent rushing ability, but at these prices and ownerships 3 passing TDs and 300+ yards will do just fine.

The Stacks

A. The DVOA numbers against the pass that I mentioned above also apply to the pass catchers that I will be covering in this section, so I will not mention them again for the sake of brevity. Entering week 2, we do not have a clear-cut WR1 on this Patriots team, although the DraftKings pricing does favor Jakobi Meyers and his nine week 1 targets. I tend to side with the more seasoned Nelson Agholor in this 1v1, so I will gladly take the $300 salary savings if choosing just one wideout to pair with Mac Jones. Outside of these two, steer far away from any other Pats WRs, but you can always look to James White and his seven week 1 targets out of the backfield. The TEs are only priced $200 apart, which is not enough for me to have any interest in Henry over Jonnu Smith. Lastly, as is going to be customary with the Jets, I will not be looking to force in any bring-backs, although if you must then Corey Davis is definitely the go-to option for the rookie.

B. The Browns stack also is a bit less straightforward than our final stack of the week that I will cover below. With the Browns, it would normally be the easy options of OBJ and Jarvis Landry, however with OBJ already declared out for week 2, that puts Landry into near must play status in any lineups that have Baker in them. The TE situation in Cleveland is even less clear than the Patriots two-headed monster, as we have Hooper, Njoku, and Bryant all lurking on the depth chart. Due to this, my plan with the Browns is to have plenty of Mayfield/Landry combinations, and I will also sprinkle some Nick Chubb, and to a lesser extent Kareem Hunt, into those lineups. The nice thing about looking at an awful team for a bring-back is that it really makes things easy. Brandin Cooks is our absolute only viable option from this Texans squad so target him if you are looking to game stack.

C. To close out week 2, we get one of the easiest stacks to break down in the entire NFL. There are four pass catchers that will draw the large majority of targets from the arm that was sent from the gods. Here are their target shares from week 1: Evans – 6, Godwin – 14, Brown – 7, and Gronk – 8. Week 2 is one of the largest over-reaction weeks in all of sports, so I intend to be much higher on Evans than the three other options listed here because not only did he receive the fewest targets, but he also was the only one that did not catch a tuddy (hell, Gronk even caught two). As we saw on Thursday, three of these four can all eat in one game as long as the Bucs post 4+ touchdowns. I would limit our Bucs stacks to three of these pass catchers, but I am definitely more likely to stick with two, and Evans will almost always be one of them. Unlike our first two stacks, we do have some very intriguing options for the bring-back here with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons absolutely laid an egg week 1, so Ridley and Pitts both underperformed and both were pretty popular DFS options. That is the premier recipe for low ownership, and this is my favorite game stack of week 2.

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 2: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 2 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the data driven article that Jared put out reviewing week one, we will referenced it heavily for the targets and touches livestream and it provides needed data for this weeks slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

I will add ownership percentages to the article later in the week. Those numbers do not really paint a clear picture until Friday. Plays may adjust due to those numbers so be sure to check back. I’ll update accordingly.

GPP:

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7% OWN:

I thought that Chubb was going to be the big chalk this week in cash games due to talent and matchup. But everything points to 6-8% of rosters having him so I LOVE him for GPP.

Urban Meyer looked lost in his head coaching debut. Choosing to throw the ball 51 times against the worst running defense in the league even though Carlos Hyde averaged 4.9 YPC and James Robinson averaged 5.0. The Browns will not make that same mistake and as far as pure running backs go there is arguably no one better than Chubb. I know that some have a concern with Hunt taking targets and touches but there is no reason to be. He is going to go ham on the Texans this week.

David Montgomery, Bears, ($6,100DK/$7,300):

I am thinking this one ends up in the cash category but I’m waiting on ownership info to come out before moving. After watching the replay of the Bears/Rams I can find no smart reason for why Nagy was taking Monty off of the field for Damien Williams. Why take a guy who is ripping off 8+ yard carries the entire game for anything other than needing a breather for a play? Why has Williams randomly starting drives? Why in God’s name are you running end arounds with Marquis Goodwin? Why do you not utilize play action when you have David Montgomery running the ball? Make no mistake, Nagy’s job is on the line in the coming weeks and if he continues to make these mistakes he will no longer be a part of the Bears organization, and year in and year out Cincy’s defenses allows over 5 yards per carry so doing anything besides handing Monty the ball 25 times right up the middle will tell you all you need to know about his future. Montgomery has been nothing short of a revelation over the last eight games and he somehow looks faster, stronger, and has better vision than at any point in his career.

Damien Harris, Patriots, ($5,400DK/$6,200FD) 7% OWN:

I know he coughed up a fumble but I do not see Bill benching their best running back for a single indiscretion and the coaching staff has already voiced their confidence in his ability to “step up” . No better place to step up than an opportunity against a Jets defense that has been bottom five in every measurable category for almost a decade. He lacks receiving upside but has that ever stopped us from playing guys like Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb? If he gets 20-25 carries it will largely come out even in the end. 160 yards rushing is just as good as 100 yards rushing and 3 grabs for 30 yards.

Also Consider: Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders

Cash:

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,100DK/ $6,700FD) 18% OWN:

I’m thinking that some of you have noticed something about several of my plays this week. When it comes to GPP’s this week something that I am planning to do is target these high total games. While people flock to the receivers and tight ends I am completely comfortable taking a back like Carson due to his ability to catch out of the backfield. The Titan’s defense struggled to stop every facet of the Cardinals offense in week one and the Seahawks are arguably better in every facet. When I first saw that Seattle kept five running backs on the roster going into the first week I was a little worried but those concerns were completely unwarranted as Carson carried the ball 16 times for 93 yards, caught all three of his targets for 26 yards, and accounted for 78% of the running back snaps. While everyone is (justifiably) stacking the receivers, take a lineup or two and replace your second receiver with Carson and reap the benefit.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($6,200/$7,500) 18% OWN

The ownership has heavily skewed towards Zeke as chalk, so while he is no longer a GPP play everything that I saw last week still remains, only now I can recommend as cash only.

One thing stood out to me when I gave the game another watch. Only four running plays of the 77 offensive snaps were designed to take place inside the numbers. Even though Zeke is trimmed down a bit, Pollard is better suited to that style, so it made it appear that Pollard was the guy even though Elliot played 84% of the snaps compared to 24% for Tony. The Bucs were thin defensively in the secondary and the Cowboys were (successfully) beating them out there all night. At the same time, Zeke was tasked with protecting Dak with no Zack Martin on the O-Line and he did a phenomenal job as the Cowboys only allowed ONE sack. Sunday, Martin will be back in action so that need will not be there. The Chargers may have some pieces on defense, but nowhere near the caliber of Tampa, especially up front. Even with Fitzpatrick’s hip injury, Gibson was still producing and ripping off chunk plays with interior runs. While everyone is ready to write Elliott off I am going to lean into him having a huge game. I just think the echo chamber surrounding him has reached an extreme and we get 2019 Zeke in week two.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers, ($7,300DK/$7,000FD)

My final selection for my running back DFS breakdown in none other than Austin Ekeler. It was a little strange seeing him get zero targets in week one but I am willing to chalk that up to a tough Washington defense, the fact that the Chargers did not get him in reps in the preseason, and a leg injury that they wanted to be cautious with. With a 55 point total and a soft Dallas defense, this is shaping up to be a smash spot for Austin. The best part about it is that if you are going to stack this game you are not sacrificing upside due to what should be a heavy utilization in the passing game. Even without a single target in week one he got 15 touches and scored a touchdown giving me a ton of optimism about his upside on Sunday.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Fortinet Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is already underway as a full field of golfers descend upon The Fortinet Championship. This tournament comes with some headliners like Jon Rahm, but also features plenty of new names who have just obtained their PGA Tour cards. Tune into the Win Daily PGA Show at 8:00 TONIGHT for everything on all the players and course dynamics. In short, I’ll be looking for a combination of ball strikers and scorers (BOB Gained and Par 5 scoring in particular). Now, let’s get to the Fortinet Championship Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (12100) – The best in the world coming out to play this tournament is a bit of surprise, but I expect his foot to be on the pedal and the main reason to fade him is if you’re trying to get different in a big GPP.

Will Zalatoris (10500) – We saw WillyZ cool off a bit toward the back end of the PGA Tour season and a lot of that had to do with the putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s gained pretty significantly with the putter so I’m willing to dive back in on the rookie of the year.

Charley Hoffman (8800) – Hoffman’s game was a little erratic toward the back half of the season but there’s no question he’s an elite ball striker when he’s on. I think he has a shot to contend in this field. You’ll notice I didn’t write up anyone in the 9k range, but Hoffman actually belongs in that price range.

Emiliano Grillo (8900) – Grillo is a great course fit in spite of middling results at The Fortinet Championship (previously the Safeway). I’m going to lean on the ball striking upside and hope for a decent putter. I’m guessing he won’t be rostered much and therefore I like him more as a GPP play only.

Maverick McNealy (8600) – The numbers haven’t been great as of late and his price is a bit high, but I’m hoping that makes him a somewhat unpopular play. If so, I’ll throw him into some GPP’s as I’m a fan of his scoring and birdie upside.

Chez Reavie (8500) – The putting can go sideways with Reavie but the ball striking is great. He’s made his last 4 cuts here and recent form looks very solid. A nice course fit at the Fortinet Championship.

Mito Pereira (8000) – He burst onto the PGA Tour scene a few months back. He’s tailed off a bit but certainly has the upside to contend here. The putter is likely to be the main issue with Mito. Other than that he rates out well. I only like him for GPP.

Doug Ghim (7900) – Pretty much a perfect course fit who showed promise last year with a 14th place finish. His putter is a big issue, but he’s been ok in that department as of late. If he’s good with the putter, don’t be surprised if he is in the mix on Sunday.

Brian Stuard (7600) – A short and accurate striker who can really putt. His main issue is that he may not score as well on the Par 5s as some of these other guys, but I like his all-around game and I expect him to make the cut.

Adam Schenk (7300) – You may recall I was on Schenk a handful of times last year and I’ll try him again at the Fortinet Championship as well. He comes in just above average OTT and APP, but he’s Top 10 in SG Par 5 and 12^th in PUTT. I like this price especially if he’s super low owned.

Chad Ramey (7000) – I’m throwing Ramey into the article because that’s what the bookmakers are telling me to do. For some reason Ramey is 70 to 1, but he is in a Draftkings price range with golfers who are mostly 100 to 1 or longer. These types of discrepancies should not be ignored. Add to that Ramey has been very good on the KFT Tour and is a good ball striker.

Bo Hoag (6800) – I’m convinced this guy is better than people think and I’m hoping we see it this week. He rates out great in my model and I think there is some upside at this price. He rates out well on APP, BOB Gained and SG Par 5. His history here isn’t bad either. A GPP play only.

Mark Hubbard (6500) – In this field Hubbard should probably be in the 7k range. He’s no superstar but he’s Top 30 on APP, PUTT, ARG, Good Drives and SG Par 5.

Jim Herman (6500) – We are definitely in the punt range, but I’m a pretty big fan of Herman. He’s been great OTT and solid on APP. He’s also Top 25 in BOB Gained and SG Par 5.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all the Fortinet Championship lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

GPP

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26

Johnathan Taylor, Colts, $6,700DK/$7,000FD: 5.5%

Javonte Williams, Broncos, $4,900DK/$5,800FD: 4.3%

Rob Gronkowski, Bucs, $5,800DK/$6,500FD: 5.5%

Adam Thielen, Vikings, $6,700DK/$7,600FD: 5.8%

Sub-1% MME GPP Play

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns, $3,000DK/$5,500FD:

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,600DK/$9,700FD):

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,400DK/$7,700FD):

Saquon Barkley, Giants, ($6,500DK/$6,000FD):

GPP:

Joe Mixon, Bengals, ($6,300DK/$6,700FD):

D’Andre Swift, Lions, ($5,800DK/$7,400FD):

Javonte Williams, Broncos, ($4,900DK/$5,800FD):

Vegas Script: Total: 53 Chiefs -4

Captains:

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, $12,600

Pivot: Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $11,800:

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $10,400:

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, $10,600

Contrarian#3: Sammy Watkins, Ravens, $7,800:

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7.1% OWN:

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,900DK/$6,300FD) 4.3% Own

Allen Robinson, Bears, ($6,200DK/$7,200FD) 5.3% OWN

Antonio Brown, Bucs, ($6,000DK/$6,400FD) 4.4% OWN

GPP:

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7% OWN:

David Montgomery, Bears, ($6,100DK/$7,300):

Damien Harris, Patriots, ($5,400DK/$6,200FD) 7% OWN:

Cash:

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,100DK/ $6,700FD) 18% OWN:

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($6,200/$7,500) 18% OWN

Austin Ekeler, Chargers, ($7,300DK/$7,000FD)

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.