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2022 BMW Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a start to the FedEx Cup playoffs! The FedEx St Jude Championship delivered an epic finish for golf fans alongside some massive profits for us. Having had multiple 2nd and 3rd place golfers in each of the three prior weeks, we saw one of our tips convert with a huge win with Will Zalatoris at 29/1.

We also had Collin Morikawa come home for 5th and a place money cash, who will be left ruing missing putts of 4ft and 6ft in his last 4 holes. And, perhaps ironically, our best return per $ spent came from Trey Mullinax who was tipped at a whopping 250/1 and duly finished 5th. To cap a fantastic week, we also tipped Ewen Ferguson to win on the DP World Tour and complete a rare trans-Atlantic double.

Wilmington Country Club plays host this week, in what is not only the first professional golf tournament hosted here but in fact the first PGA Tour event in the state of Delaware. Home course of President Joe Biden, the course is immaculately kept with a grand clubhouse sure to provide a picturesque backdrop to the tournament this week.

The stakes are high with the field cut to just the top 70. Not only does the Tour Championship provide lucrative pay checks to the top 30 and eventual FedEx Champion, but also entry to the Majors in 2023. Who should you bet at the BMW Championship? Here is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

Wilmington Country Club is being played as the South course, although it is in fact played as a modified order. The course is a lengthy 7,534 yards par-71. A lot of this yardage falls into the par 5s measuring 582, 634, and 649 yards. It is worth noting the 634-yard 12th also has water short and therefore will take an extremely brave player to go for the green.

Further, three par 4s play over 490 yards and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards. On a typical PGA Tour course players will hit on average four approach shots over 200 yards, where we expect 7 shots to fall into that long iron range here. Two par 4s are less than 400 yards, with the 16th likely to play with forward tees for at least two rounds and be drivable. Doglegs feature in both directions and the ability to move the ball with ease is a prerequisite here.

Fairways are relatively narrow and the rough shifts from 2.5in bermudagrass last week to 4in bluegrass here. Although rough is longer in length, bluegrass tends to be a little less penal and more predictable than bermudgrass. I suspect power will be an essential element to success this week. This will come into play not just in driving distance, but the ability to move the ball forward sometimes substantial distances if finding the rough.

Greens revert to bentgrass here and are almost comically large at 8,100 sq ft. Surpassed only by the Plantation Course as host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, those are some of the largest greens seen on tour. They will play relatively fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and display some of the signature undulating nature seen in other Robert Trent Jones designs.

Comp Courses and Key Metrics

Patrick Cantlay in his press conference stated: “This golf course is definitely just like last year, extremely distance biased. You’ve got to hit it as far as you can and hit a lot of fairways.” Best recipe according to him is topping the field for driving distance, but noted fairways a little narrower than Caves Valley, and then a hot putting week. He stated greens are very true, “all about finding the right line and if you hit a solid putt, it will go in”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H03kfzv_QEs

Alongside last year’s host Caves Valley, the course profiles very similar to Quail Hollow both visually and in terms of the setup of the course itself. Trump National Doral also holds some comparable features, alongside a similar scorecard and length.

The 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic all features courses with bluegrass rough and larger than average bentgrass greens. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational feature as comparisons with relatively lengthy setups combined with some of the larger greens on tour.

The key metrics I am looking for this week are driving distance, performance on approach over 200 yards, and approach putt performance. The latter accounts for the fact lag putting will play a factor for all players at some point of the tournaments. I suspect a winning score of -16 to -18 may do the trick on what on first appearance presents a slightly more penal test than previous iterations of this event.

Weather Forecast

With a condensed field and all players starting off the first tee, the weather plays less of a factor here than in other weeks. Decent enough rain in the lead-up will prevent the course getting too firm. I expect some light rain Wednesday evening, Friday evening, and during the morning on Saturday as well.

The winds appear calmest first thing in the morning before building throughout the day. The wind does not look significantly penal though, peaking at 8-10mph prevailing with gusts of 15-20mph in the afternoons.

https://www.windy.com/39.794/-75.597?39.313,-75.597,8,m:eLuad3b

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Headliners

– Rory McIlroy 4pt E/W $13.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Scottie Scheffler 2pt E/W $21.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Joaquin Niemann 1pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Joaquin Niemann 2pt Top 10 $4.50 (TAB)

Sleepers

– Cameron Davis 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Cameron Davis 3pt Top 10 $6.00 (TAB)

– Keith Mitchell 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Keith Mitchell 2pt Top 20 $3.88 (TAB)

– Taylor Pendrith 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Taylor Pendrith 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Trey Mullinax 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (William Hill)

– Sebastian Munoz 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Sebastian Munoz 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Player Profiles – Headliners

Rory McIlroy

I’ll start by saying it is incredibly rare for me to find value at the top end of the board. This week we do for a couple of reasons, and hence just three players make the headline picks here. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy, who provides a compelling case. I’m surprised we find Rory at 13/1 when it would be unsurprising were he priced at high single figures in a smaller 70-man field.

Alongside 4th at the similar Caves Valley course, Rory has won three times at Quail Hollow alongside a runner-up finish and 9 Top 10s there. The missed cut last week holds little concern for me. Firstly, he is perhaps the best driver in the world (alongside Rahm) and lost strokes off the tee for the first time since March 2021.

I don’t expect that happens again, especially given a course last week that was not necessarily 100% suitable. Secondly, by his own admission he did not touch his golf clubs since The Open Championship and indulged in some unhealthy eating. Shaking off that rust, he still gained on approach to the field, marking 9 tournaments in a row doing so. In the prior 8 events, he has finished no worse than 19th and finished 8th or better in all 4 Majors.

Rory has won 5 FedEx Cup playoff events, beaten only by Dustin Johnson (6) and joined by Tiger Woods (4) as the only golfers with more than 2 FedEx Cup wins. He is also a two-time FedEx Cup champion. A late charge, at a course which should suit his game perfectly, would not surprise in what has been an exceptional year.

Scottie Scheffler

It was a close-run thing for the second spot in, with Scheffler just edging Rahm for value. I have a fair price on Scheffler at 15/1 in this field, so to snatch him at 21/1 is excellent value where Rahm is substantially shorter.

Missing the cut on the number last week, most of his lost strokes came from the putter with his worst putting performance since January 2021. We know how volatile a stat putting can be and starting the tournament missing 4ft and 8ft putts led to some understandable frustration. In fact, Scheffler lost -4.65 strokes putting in that first round but gained +0.76 strokes in his 2nd round in a much-improved putting performance.

Scheffler also beats Rahm in a few key metrics for me. He is 70th on tour this season for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 71st for approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 3rd for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.

Having gained strokes OTT in all but one tournament this year, Scheffler also has gained on approach in his prior 13 tournaments (discount The Players under an extremely windy draw bias). Considering he spent much of his 2nd round chasing the cutline at a penal approach course to smaller greens, a quick rebound can be expected here. Having spent 23 weeks as the FedEx Cup leader, he will have the added motivation having lost that spot following Will Zalatoris’ victory last week.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the most impressive performances of the season came with Niemann decimating Riviera on his way to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Already regarded amongst the game’s elite, the supremely talented Chilean is still just 23 years old. A strong performance this week would be more than just reward for a great season.

Last week, Niemann lost strokes in his first round before finding some incredible form with his irons. Gaining +2.90, +2.11, and +1.38 on approach for the next three rounds saw him finish third in that metric for the week. This followed gaining on approach in 5/6 of his recent tournaments (4 of those by 4 strokes or more) and complimented by gaining OTT in all tournaments this year. Notably, he has gained on the field for accuracy in 2 of his last three suggesting his ball-striking is peaking at the perfect time.

That prodigious distance will come in handy here, with sitting 6th on tour this season for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards another pointer. 3rd, 29th, and 31st at this tournament point to a level of comfort at the end of the calendar and all came in earlier seasons whilst still developing to the player we find today.

Player Profiles – Sleepers

Cameron Davis

Cam Davis arrives here off the back of 5 finishes of 16th or better. He has gained on approach at every event since the Phoenix Open back in February 2022 and gained OTT in 9/10 most recent tournaments.

Plenty long off the tee and with his irons, Davis is also quietly a decent putter and gains on the field majority of appearances (15/19 tournaments in 2022). Bentgrass also tends to be his best putting surface. Davis sits 38th on tour for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 42nd for birdie or better percentage 200+ yards.

Davis is currently 52nd in FedEx Cup rankings and realistically needs a top 5 finish to make next week’s Tour Championship. The talented 27-year-old is certainly arriving in great form to try and mark his first appearance in the season ending tournament with a strong showing here.

Keith Mitchell

Another who is plenty long off the tee, Mitchell arrives after 4 consecutive finishes of 32nd or better and having gained on approach for 5 straight appearances. He has also gained for driving accuracy substantially in his last 2 events, again pointing to some strong fundamentals to his game of late.

Mitchell has some elite form at the comparable Quail Hollow with 3rd, 8th, and 34th (in his rookie year) for his appearances there. Mitchel is 18th on tour for par 3 scoring 200-225 yards and 41st for approach proximity and 45th birdie or better percentage at 200+ yards. Sitting 38th in the rankings, he is in a great excellent position for an inaugural appearance at the Tour Championship.

Taylor Pendrith

In an excellent rookie season, Taylor Pendrith has performed admirably well since stepping up to the PGA Tour despite a significant rib injury in March. Pendrith halted a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 13th or better last week, in a performance which reads on paper worse than it perhaps was. The majority of his strokes were lost with the putter but he was at field average for approach.

In that recent run of high-end finishes was a 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, when losing to a hot-form Tony Finau. That was an improved putting performance, gaining +4.48 strokes putting, and came on bentgrass greens as we see here this week. 26th on tour this year for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards could see a perfect fit here.

Having gained off the tee at every tournament in 2022, Pendrith is able to maintain his extremely long distance whilst remaining accurate. It is a rare combination that could be extremely valuable this week at triple figure odds on offer.

Trey Mullinax

Having delivered for us so beautifully last week, it is hard to resist returning to Mullinax. I tipped him last week at 250/1, so being cut to 125/1 is not drastic given a 5th place and the field nearly halving here.

In that performance, he gained +6.04 strokes approach to sit 7th in the field alongside 4th for SG: T2G. Losing -1.83 strokes putting in the 4th round was what put paid to his chances, with even an average day on the greens likely to have seen him go even closer to victory.

It is somewhat understandable for a player finding himself in that position for the first time at the pointy end of the season. Mullinax has gained strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments. Notably, he is 3rd on tour for approach putt performance meaning these larger bentgrass greens hold less of a concern for me here.

Another top 20 would not surprise and, sitting 41st in FedEx Cup rankings, would see him qualify for next week’s finale. It would cap a remarkable 5 weeks. Following being informed 2 months ago that his father, who was diagnosed was stage 4 cancer, was now cancer-free it would make an emotional realisation of this long hitter’s potential.

Sebastian Munoz

Finally, I will end with a somewhat speculative play on Sebastian Munoz at big odds. Munoz has a reasonably strong record in previous BMW Championships, with 29th last year complimenting an 8th place in 2020 where he made the Tour Championship in his second year on tour.

Munoz had a massive spike on approach last week, having lost on approach in his two prior tournaments to pop when gaining +5.00 strokes. This was his best approach week since the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he finished 3rd having been the first-round leader. It was accompanied by a big jump in driving accuracy, where he does usually excel but the 15% gain was substantial. A return to bentgrass greens holds appeal for a sharp return to form here.

3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 FedEx St Jude Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In an eventful week for golf in what has been an eventful year, the PGA Tour moves from the regular season to our final event with a cutline in the 2021-2022 season. The FedEx Cup playoffs is now a truncated three tournament race to further increased purses and the field is obviously stacked.

Another week at the Wyndham Championship where he had the leader throughout the first few rounds, before we wound up with the runner-up. In this case, we had Sungjae Im at 16/1 and John Huh on the card. At 175/1, the Huh place money was actually better odds than those available on Tom Kim for a historic and decisive victory.

Three consecutive weeks with our picks firmly in contention, it is only a matter of time for one of our golfers to convert for our 10th outright in 2022. Who should you bet for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather predictions, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

It is worth noting immediately that although TPC Southwind has featured on the PGA Tour since 1989, the name of the tournament has changed over the years. It is best to view history for the course rather than tournament name and also noting the event featured significantly more difficult fields when it became a WGC event in 2019. This will be the first iteration as the opening event of the play-offs and it remains to be seen how the course superintendents intend to prepare the course.

The course is a long 7,243 yards par-70 when, for perspective, we would regard 7,400 a fairly average length for a par-72. Fairways are on the narrow side and water features in abundance on the course. Rough is 2.5in bermudagrass which sounds short but we only need to look to last week to remember bermuda is more penal than other varietals and will produce flyers.

Greens feature bermudagrass and are extremely small at just 4,300 sq ft on average. With smaller greens, less reliance on putting statistics and a bump in around the green preference is obvious. A short look at those with course history tells us ball-striking, particularly approach and driving accuracy, is the key to success. Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Aaron Rai are excellent iron players and give a flavour to the ideal profile.

Relatively unique to TPC Southwind is the zoysiagrass fairways. This rare and sturdy grass is used infrequently and typically only in drier climes as it requires less water. Being a stronger grass it does have some unique characteristics. Golfers have commented that balls can sometimes be “teed” up, and other times settle down a little to produce surprise flyers. A winning score is likely to be in the -12 to -15 range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OehJ__lbGBk

Comp Courses

The only other regular tour events with zoysia are TPC Craig Ranch (2021 and 2022 host of AT&T Byron Nelson) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship host). Bellerive Country Club, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, also features zoysia fairways. It is worth noting Brooks Koepka won both that event and the 2019 FedEx St Jude Invitational here. A shame he couldn’t be here this week.

Weather Forecast

The lead in to this event has seen a lack of rain in the past few months with July one of the hottest on record. The course was likely to play extremely firm and fast. Golfers will be grateful that today (Wednesday) the course has received a decent amount of rain. More rain (albeit light drizzle) is expected Thursday.

Winds are expected to be light all week, with single digit prevailing winds and gusts only in the teens. There does not appear to be any weather draw to play.

Thursday morning may provide the softest conditions following Wednesday’s rain, it is not predicted to be a significant enough edge to play.

https://www.windy.com/35.054/-89.779?34.981,-81.969,6,m:eDAadFx

FedEx St Jude Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Will Zalatoris 2pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.25 (Bet365)

– Collin Morikawa 2pt E/W $34.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.50 (Bet365)

– Russell Henley 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– 1pt Top 20 $3.30 (TAB)

– Corey Conners 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

– Aaron Wise 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.60 (Bet365)

– Scott Stallings 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365 10 places 1/7 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)

– Troy Merritt 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $13.00 (TAB)
– 2pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

– Tom Hoge 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 40 $3.75 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Will Zalatoris

Elite ball-striking with less emphasis on putting screams Zalatoris. Gaining on approach in 17/18 strokeplay tournaments this year is obvious for even the casual fan. There are a few other indicators that jump out for me this week.

Zalatoris typically loses a little for driving accuracy on the field. He has gained on the field in his last two events and improved his approach play concurrently, suggesting positive improvements in his ball-striking. Rightly his putting has been regarded has his weakest aspect. However, this year he has gained multiple strokes putting at all US based majors this year suggesting that when the pressure is on he can lift his game. Anything above field average putting should see Zalatoris in the top 10.

Performances of 20th and 21st over the last two weeks in weaker fields is a positive for me. Neither of those courses are necessarily the best fits for him, and to see him still playing well in mediocre PGA Tour events suggests a peak for playoffs is on the cards. Especially at an event he finished 8th in last year when returning from injury and not at 100%.

Finally, Zalatoris fired his caddy mid-tournament last week. We often see a change in a player’s team result in immediate results. His caddy is his short-game coach Josh Gregory, and I can think of no one better to be on the bag. Zalatoris spoke of the benefit having Josh assist with reading putts and may just be what is needed for a win this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc3uWDSNYq4

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa arrives off the back of two missed cuts and may fly under the radar this week. I immediately note that this was at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, with unique bunkering and greens meaning this poses little concern to me. I rather focus on the fact he remains one of the best iron players on Tour, gaining over 5 strokes on approach when last sighted.

His most recent performance in mainland USA was a 5th at the US Open, which is complimented by a 5th at The Masters as well. We know Morikawa can lift for these big events and the fundamentals of his game are solid for this test with long accurate driving and precise irons.

We have previously seen him play well at end of the year, winning the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2021 to claim both the title and the Race to Dubai.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHIDF7avNQw

He also held a 10th there in 2020 and a 6th in 2020 at the Tour Championship, which features zoysiagrass fairways, in his first full year on tour. Morikawa will be acutely aware this is first year he has not had a win by this point. Motivation will be plentiful and a strong performance would not surprise to boost his current 22nd position on the FedEx Cup rankings.

Russell Henley

Another who profiles perfectly for TPC Southwind, Henley arrives off the back of a 10th and 5th place finish. He has hit his straps in both approach and driving accuracy, leading the field last week in approach suggesting he is peaking at the perfect time.

Henley has a 12th and 3rd in his two Tour Championship appearances on the zoysia fairways of East Lake to compliment a 7th here. Henley has a history of playing well in the first playoff event, having been first-round leader at the 2020 and 2017 Northern Trust. The question with Henley is always the putter. Noting 2/3 of his victories have come on bermudagrass provides some positive guidance, as does the Honda Classic win on a water filled course where accuracy is paramount.

Corey Conners

Sitting 29th on the FedEx Cup standings, Conners will be focused on two strong performances to ensure he makes the Tour Championship field.

A similar profile to Morikawa, Conners consistently gains on the field for driving accuracy and approach which is the precise metrics we are focused on this week. Where he lacks his the putting and around the green, but it is worth noting he has a tendency to perform better on smaller greens.

A notable example would be Harbour Town, where he form of 21-4-12 in his last three appearances. Providing an opportunity to shake off the cobwebs, the 21st last week was his first appearance in 3 weeks for a golfer where I have a fair price of 55/1.

Aaron Wise

Another who has a positive expected value in my models, the renowned iron play of Wise holds appeal on a course which should suit.

Although his first appearance on this track, Wise has a history of playing well in the opening playoff event with three made cuts from three attempts including a 5th. In his first tune up in three weeks, Wise managed a 13th at the Wyndham Championship despite not having his best week on approach. Where he did gain was on driving accuracy and putting, so any regression to his above average approach play will hold appeal here.

Scott Stallings

Entering in excellent form, Stallings arrives with 4 consecutive top 13 finishes. He is on offer at triple figures despite this, on a track he has excellent history. Stallings has 6/8 made cuts here, including a runner up. He enters in much better form than the majority of those instances, with the majority coming off missed cuts and finishes worse than 40th place.

Stallings has now gained on approach in 5 consecutive events and seen a spike in his driving accuracy for his last three weeks. The ball-striking has been excellent, and he arrives to a course he has gained on and around the greens on multiple occasions. Zoysiagrass form also adds to the credentials, with 25th and 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch in both the PGA Tour events held there thus far.

Troy Merritt

Sitting 62nd in the FedEx Cup rankings, Troy Merritt needs a good week here to ensure he can continue in the playoffs. He arrives here having gained multiple strokes on approach for three consecutive weeks and a big spike in driving accuracy.

Merritt has volatility with the putter, which is a positive. It provides upside at these odds, as the ability to spike with the putter when combined with the ball-striking suggest a serious run at the top is possible. The opportunity comes at a track where he has already finished 12th and 2nd, complimented by a 7th at TPC Craig Ranch this year.

Tom Hoge

Although the 160s I got on Hoge on opening are no longer available, he is highlighted here for transparency. He may still be available for Top 20 opportunities as well as a lower DFS play.

Hoge led the field in approach on last appearance when gaining more than 10 strokes on the field with his irons. He has now gained for three consecutive weeks on approach, and 4/5 for driving accuracy. He holds a best finish of 12th here and finished with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch this year. With an inaugural victory coming at Pebble Beach, as well as a return of his excellent approach play, this event may come at the perfect time for him.

Trey Mullinax

Finally, a speculative play on Mullinax seems in order. Mullinax won just 4 weeks ago and has now gained on approach in three consecutive weeks. He returns to a course where he has finished 6th and 18th in bigger (albeit weaker) fields. Both of those finishes came after a string of missed cuts, so arriving here in much better form holds sufficient appeal at big odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Another tournament in the books and the 3M Open was just as volatile as promised on paper. Scott Piercy was dominant and looked unbeatable for 61 holes, then managed to play the final 11 holes of the tournament in 7 over. When water poses such a significant danger on practically every hole, the increased winds on Sunday evening proved too much for Piercy along with our tips for the week finding the drink a few times too many.

14/1 favourite Tony Finau finally polished off a win after what has been an excellent season for him. A third PGA Tour victory seems low for a player of his evident talents, although 3 playoff runner-up finishes should always be considered with the volatility that comes in one hole of golf. Fortunately, another good week on the DP World Tour kept the books ticking over.

The PGA Tour is well and truly in countdown mode towards the FedEx Cup playoffs. Many players will be aiming to jump as far up the standings as possible and qualify for the lucrative Tour Championship. Others are playing for their career, hoping to retain their tour card without the battle of being demoted to the Korn Ferry Tour. There really is everything to play for this week.

Perhaps my highlight of the week has already occurred. The SG: Narrative line-up I proposed was so masterfully brought to life by Sia’s extremely talented wife Gigi. If you’ve not watched it already, you can find the clip here:

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1551591004171833344?s=20&t=xlN1vOxLbYOxMgM-eKap_A

https://twitter.com/SiaNejad/status/1551635713585717249?s=20&t=xlN1vOxLbYOxMgM-eKap_A

Along with plenty of play for, there are some great opportunities out there this week to target. Who should you bet at the Rocket Mortgage Classic? Here is your weekly golf deep dive, course analysis, weather forecast, and your Rocket Mortgage Classic Predictions.

Course Analysis

Detroit Golf Club plays host this week as a 7,370 yards par-72 and has played as one of the easiest stops on tour since it’s addition in 2019. This Donald Ross design is technically a composite course, consisting of a slightly amended order of holes to the typical member layout.

The course offers little defense, with just the one water hazard in play. Bunkering is used throughout, both on fairways and around the green complexes. The fairways themselves are some of the widest on tour with a width of 34 yards at the 325-yard mark. Rough is 4 inches thick, which is fairly punitive, yet given the majority of golfers will be closer to the green this mitigates some of the penalty. In fact, this course features a far higher percentage of shots between 50-150 yards than the PGA Tour average.

The greens are above average size at 5,150 sq ft and often two tiered. As is typical of Ross courses, they are often slanted from front to back meaning spin control is imperative. They have previously been heavily watered, given the heat in Detroit over summer, so are soft and are a fairly mundane 10.5 on the stimpmeter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh09K0f2gK0

For mine, there are two clear paths to victory here. Firstly, the bomb and gouge technique. Simply hit the ball as close to the green as possible and get a wedge in hand. The alternative is laying back and avoiding fairway bunkers, with driving accuracy at more of a premium. Approach play should mainly be considered in the 50-150 yards bracket. We have seen both styles be successful here in the past. Either way, the winner will be expected to make a huge number of putts to keep up with the low scoring.

Sedgefield Country Club provides an obvious comp course. Not only does the other Donald Ross design on tour play host to the subsequent tournament in next week’s Wyndham Championship, but it also features a similar shot profile as can be expected here. The other would be TPC Deere Run, again hosting the John Deere Classic recently but also offering wide fairways, requiring skilled wedge play, and demanding low scoring. Expect a winning total of between -19 to -23 this week.

Weather Forecast

At time of writing, I continue to see a decent edge to the Thursday AM tee-times. As you will know from my previous articles, I do like to play a weather advantage aggressively. I will also tell you that this week appears to be one of the more significant edges so far this year if the weather holds true to current predictions.

Thursday morning will provide calm conditions with prevailing winds of 5-9mph and gusts of 11-20mph as the morning develops. By 1pm, we can expect that all to change. Thursday PM is currently forecast for prevailing winds of 15-19mph but gusts showing up to 34-38mph with the worst of the wind either side of 2pm.

Friday AM should again deliver still conditions with prevailing winds of 4-9mph and gusts of 12-18mph. Friday PM will be a little windier, but not to the extent seen on Thursday PM. Prevailing winds of 8-16mph and gusts of 20-24 mph are currently forecast.

https://www.windy.com/42.428/-83.121?icon,42.425,-83.104,14,m:ePRadQC

For the players who make the cut, Saturday and Sunday offer very calm conditions and scoring should be very low. Expect this to be highly volatile. It is feasible a golfer could make a charge from quite far back. Two incredibly low rounds on the homeward stretch is certainly possible.

I will be playing 100% Thursday AM groups for both betting and DFS purposes, with my current predictions of an average of 1.5-2.0 stroke advantage to those groups.

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Denny McCarthy 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
Denny McCarthy 2pt Top 20 $3.30 (Bet365)

Webb Simpson 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
Webb Simpson 2pt Top 20 $3.40 (Bet365)

Si Woo Kim 1pt E/W $51.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Si Woo Kim 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

Taylor Pendrith 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Taylor Pendrith 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Danny Willett 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Danny Willett 2pt Top 20 $5.50 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Patrick Rodgers 2pt Top 20 $5.25 (Bet365)

Matt Wallace 0.5pt E/W $151.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Matt Wallace 2pt Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Denny McCarthy

Nothing screams “putting contest” more than taking the golfer who leads the field for SG: Putting over the last 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The 29-year-old Denny has been having his best year on tour, finishing in the top 20 in 40% of this starts this year.

The majority of that can be put down to his always excellent putting now being complimented by improvements in his approach play. Both his SG: Approach and Driving Accuracy are now consistently surpassing field average. He holds an excellent record at Sedgefield CC with form of 36-22-9-15 and has a 21st here in 2019. All of that came when he was worse form than we find him now.

A 6th placed finish last time out at the John Deere Classic saw him 6th in the field for SG: Approach and 4th for Driving Accuracy. If anything, he had a “below average” tournament with the putter “only” finishing 29th in the field. This was atypical and is his “worst” putting performance since April.

You’ll note I use these terms very loosely. But it simply affirms that a continuation of the ball-striking, combined with anything near his typical putting, should see him a force to be reckoned with this week.

Webb Simpson

I am happy to get back on the Webb Simpson train this week, which I am sure will come to much delight of Spencer. Webb’s affinity with the Wyndham Championship (and Donald Ross designed Sedgefield CC) is well-known. He also holds an 8th place here in 2020.

Webb needs that form now more than ever. After an injury plagued start to the season and average form, he is currently “bubble boy”125th for FedEx Cup standings. Given, there are several LIV Golf players above him who will be removed from the field. But he certainly won’t be comfortable with where he is entering the end of the year. And there are many other players behind him also playing to keep their card.

We have been tracking some return to form for Webb as of late, as he is obviously far more talented than his current standings suggest. Despite the subpar season, he still ranks out 36th on Tour for approaches 50-125 yards this season and 5th on tour for birdie or better percentage when approaching the green from <125 yards.

Of his 7 PGA Tour victories, 6 have come at scores of -15 or lower and strong performances at other shorter courses are easily found. When he adds his 8th title, the odds available will no doubt return to their usual spot in the 20s.

Si Woo Kim

Kim arrives here having taken a week of rest to recover from his best finish at The Open, ending up 15th around St Andrews.

He has a propensity to win at these shootout events, with 2 of his 3 tour victories coming at -23 at The American Express and -21 at the similar Wyndham Championship. Alongside that win around Sedgefield CC are finishes of 5th, 3rd, and 2nd (losing in a playoff) at the last three iterations. Si Woo clearly peaks at this time of year.

Two of his victories also came after a period of missed cuts, a spike the tournament prior for a top 25 finish from seemingly nowhere, a two-week break, and then a win on next appearance. That is precisely what we find again here, on a course that should suit his game well and comparative performances on similar courses.

Taylor Pendrith

In contrast, Pendrith sits firmly in the bomb and gouge camp. Having broken a rib during practise at The Players Championship (where he astonishingly still finished 13th), he returned 4 months later and has continued right where he left off with finishes of 13th and 11th in his two appearances since.

Pendrith ticks a lot of the boxes Bryson did prior to his win here. Over his last 30 rounds, Pendrith sits 10th in this field for SG:T2G and 5th for SG: OTT. The majority of that is coming from his extreme driving distance. However, he does beat the field for driving accuracy occasionally and particularly on shorter courses where he can club down.

Surprisingly, Pendrith also often gains strokes on the field around the green. It is a rare and dangerous combo for a long hitter. His approach stats should be read in context as he sits 60th on tour for Approach Proximity from 50-125 yards. Although this will be his first appearance here, he does display many of the elements required to dominate this layout.

Danny Willett

I am happy to take a small stake on Willett here, given the context which he arrives. All be told, it has been a below average season for Willett. What that means is he is at risk of losing his card on both sides of the pond, sitting outside automatic retention on both the PGA and DP World tours.

Willett makes most of his strokes putting and around the green. We have seen his poor approach play this year return to field average the last two tournaments. When combined with gaining on the field for driving accuracy, it is suggesting a turn in form for his ball-striking.

It is not the first time we have seen Willett leave it to the last minute, as well as perform well under the highest of pressures. He won the Alfred Dunhill Links in October 2021, won the BMW PGA Championship and finished 5th at the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2019, and won that same tournament in 2018 on the DP World Tour.

In 2020, he arrived at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after three missed cuts to suddenly finish 4th and make the playoffs. And, of course, the Masters victory was complimented by popping for a 12th place finish this year.

This year, he arrives on the back of a 7th place finish last week. He still sits outside the top 125 to retain his card and make the playoffs. He will be desperate to do so. I am willing to speculate that the narrative continues, and he can rise to the challenge as previously.

Patrick Rodgers

Sia has sold me on Rodgers. I’m in. The beauty with Rodgers is he can deliver the required excellent putting to win this week, but also carries a ton of distance off the tee. He has been at or above field average for driving accuracy in 7 of his last 8 tournaments. It’s a great recipe.

The missed cut last appearance at the Scottish Open can easily be dismissed given the unique challenge links golf presents. Rodgers lost 4 strokes approach in his first round, and rebounded to gain 3.6 strokes in the 2nd round missing the cut by 2 shots. For his appearance on a true links course, it is easily forgivable.

Prior to that, we saw Rodgers gaining more than 4 strokes on approach at the wedge-fest in the John Deere Classic where he has also finished 2nd before. Rodgers’ two appearances and two cuts made here, with finishes in the mid-40s, should also be read in context. They came off the back of arriving off a 76th and the prior year off two missed cuts.

Rodgers has gained massively putting in 6 of his last 8 appearances, gained OTT in 7/8, and gained SG: Approach in 5/8 with the approach play also trending in the positive direction of late. He ticks the box of driving it long and putting well and is at triple figure odds. Yes please.

Matt Wallace

Finally, I’ll wrap up this week with another play in similar vein to Willett. Wallace stands to lose his card on both tours should he not improve in these coming weeks. And he is a golfer of high talent, with 10 professional wins, who should not be in that position.

Having started the season in abysmal form, Wallace missed 6 consecutive cuts between February-April to begin the year. A mid-year return to play a couple of tournaments on the DP World Tour did return some confidence for him. He finished 5th and 18th in those two events before returning to the PGA Tour and finishing 35th at the Canadian Open in a high-class field.

Wallace popped up again for a 25th last week, despite two double bogeys on the cards. He won’t face anywhere near the danger off the tee this week. I am happy instead to look at his improved approach play, as well as gaining 4 strokes putting on the field. That marks gaining strokes putting in 5/7 of his recent appearances.

A 12th in his sole appearance here in 2020 came off a run of MC-64-MC and suggests he is at a minimum somewhat partial to the track. Following up last week’s 25th with another top 20 is certainly feasible. For his career trajectory, it is vital.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

2022 Irish Open Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Who should you bet at the Irish Open? This is your weekly deep dive and golf betting tips.

A fantastic week again for our golf betting tips last week again, delivering our 8th winner of 2022 with Haotong Li cashing the outright tickets for us at 65/1! It was a dream scenario at the BMW International Open, as Haotong not only went wire-to-wire but we also managed to secure 2nd place Thomas Pieters who lost the playoff after a dreadful chip and a spectacular putt saw Li score the win.

With this 1-2 finish, the outright win money alongside full place payouts for both Haotong Li and Thomas Pieters now sees my DP World Tour tips for 2022 sitting at an ROI of a whopping +42%.

It was a dream scenario to have both players in the playoff, and sit back to simply enjoy one of the most emotional victories of recent times. The outpouring of emotion was absolutely justified and very moving. This was a golfer who went from 32nd in the world rankings to outside the top 500 in the space of 18 months, completely lost his game with difficulties travelling to see his family in China through COVID taking a significant toll, and leading to nearly hanging up the clubs just 10 months ago. The comeback was fabulous to watch and a compelling story.

We enter a fantastic run of events on the DP World Tour with the Irish Open this week, the joint tour event at the Scottish Open, all culminating in the 150th Open Championship to be held at St. Andrews. This should be one of the best stretches of golf for the year and one I am excited to cover as we look to continue our wonderful run.

Course Analysis

The Irish Open does move sporadically to a number of courses and returns to the site of last year’s iteration at Mount Juliet Estate Golf Course. Alongside the 2021 rendition, there is history at this venue having held the 1993-1995 events as well as the American Express Championships in 2002 and 2004.

Previous winners here have included some of the legends of the game. Nick Faldo defeated Jose Maria Olazabal when completing a three-peat of Irish Open victories, followed by Bernhard Langer, and Sam Torrance. Ernie Els and Tiger Woods winning the two PGA Tour events held here only add to a star-studded list of golfing legends.

The course, contrary to some first impressions when thinking of an Irish course, is actually a parkland course situated a few miles south of Kilkenny in the South-East of Ireland. The Jack Nicklaus design is a medium length 7,264 yard par 72 with a traditional split of 4 par 5s and 4 par 3s. Three of those par 5s are reachable in two by the majority of the field, with the other par 5 potentially reachable by some of the longer hitters. 7/10 of the Par 4s sit in the 400-450 yard range, which is basically at or slightly below average length.

Fairways are fairly generous. However, driving accuracy is at a premium with tree-lined fairways and plentiful water hazards threatening to cause losing multiple strokes a real possibility for anyone errant off the tee. As often seen on Nicklaus courses, bunkers are also plentiful and approach will also be at a premium.

Alongside last year’s event providing guidance, I have pulled a few course results to find correlations and found some good trends in performance to the 2021 leaderboard with the following events:

Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Galgorm Castle (host of 2020 Irish Open as well as some Challenge Tour events)
Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club (produced strong links to the 2021 leaderboard)
Dubai Desert Classic (Winner Lucas Herbert having won at both courses, as well as Richard Bland performing well at both)

Overall, I am looking for positive driving accuracy as well as approach play performance. Scoring on the par 5s is essential and provided a strong correlation to results around here. The greens feature subtle breaks and a golfer who has the ability to hit a hot streak with the putter will be needed on a course where we can expect the winning score to sit in the -17 to -22 bracket.

Weather

A large amount of rain has fallen over the past two weeks in Kilkenny and the course is playing softer than desired from reports I have read. This should hopefully aid some of the approach play metrics as required on this track, and as a mid-length course does not pose too much concern for shorter hitters.

More rain is expected Thursday morning with some chance of a drizzle in the afternoon as well. Wind is consistent throughout the day, with 6-8mph prevailing and 14-17mph gusts not holding too many fears.

Friday afternoon tells a different story, with the morning providing by far the calmer conditions. Morning groups will enjoy a calm 6-7mph prevailing with light gusts of 12-15 mph. Friday PM looks to deliver winds prevailing at 12-16mph with gusts up to 25-30mph. More wind over the weekend remains a possibility.

This does look an advantage to the Thursday PM/Friday AM groups.

https://www.windy.com/52.524/-7.188?52.139,-7.191,8,m:e6HafXc

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

(All E/W with Bet365, 5 places at 1/4 odds)

Richie Ramsay 1pt E/W $61.00

Guido Migliozzi 0.5pt E/W $67.00
Guido Migliozzi 1pt Top 10 $8.00

Fabrizio Zanotti 0.5pt E/W $76.00
Fabrizio Zanotti 1pt E/W $8.00

Sean Crocker 0.5pt E/W $126.00
Sean Crocker 1pt Top 20 $6.00

Sami Valimaki 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Sami Valimaki 1pt Top 20 $7.00

Ewen Ferguson 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Ewen Ferguson 1pt Top 20 $7.00

First, I will say that Lowry is a very worthy favourite at the top of the board as a golfer who sits 4th in the world for SG: Total over the last 3 months. He is clearly the class here, but at odds of 10s since narrowing to 8-9s he is fairly priced and represents little positive expected value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu9qJNWuQM4

I will also note that I was very, very close on Aaron Rai. My only misgiving preventing actually tipping him was the amount of travel and golf he has already played this week. After the Travelers, where he played the weekend, he flew directly to Scotland to attempt to qualify for The Open Championship on Tuesday.

He very nearly did, losing in a 3 way playoff with the other 2 qualifying. Qualifying is a long day, 36 holes and around 12 and a half hours from start to finish. It also means little preparation for this week’s event having arrived here on Wednesday at the earliest. On top of a lot of travel halfway around the world, it was just enough to cause me concern at the relatively short odds on offer for a golfer I otherwise love here.

Player Profiles

Richie Ramsay

With some obvious favourites at the top of the board, at relatively fair and short odds, we find ourselves in the mid-range prices to start our tips.

Ramsay has fairly elite course form and corresponding course performances are excellent. A 3rd at The Belfry in the first week of May at a very visually and statistically similar course to Mount Juliet points to good recent form as well as the type of track Ramsay can perform well at. The recent 15th at the Soudal Open also coming at a track where driving accuracy is at a premium. This is a real strength of Richie Ramsay’s game, having performed at or above field average for driving accuracy at all bar 2 events in the last two years.

When we add in a 6th place at Emirates Golf Club, a previous win and 8th at Crans-sur-Sierre, a 33rd at 2020 Irish Open host Galgorm Castle, and a 4th at this event last year, we have one of the strongest related course profiles in the field.

The Scotsman is not in The Open field and will obviously have the added incentive of trying to secure a top 10 here to qualify to the “home of golf” hosted in his nation. The 13th place finish last time out at last week’s BMW International Open came in a low-scoring affair, where a very consistent scorecard saw all his rounds under par (68-68-70-68), and provides some welcome confidence arriving at a track where he was right in contention last year.

Guido Migliozzi

Following a dreadful stretch of golf dating back to September 2021, we are finally seeing a return to form for the highly talented 25-year-old Italian. The 10th place finish at the Dutch Open towards the end of May were the first sparks of life. A resurgence was then seen in full on his last outing at the US Open, where he gained across the board to finish a highly respectable 14th.

Migliozzi has been an excellent putter throughout his career and has gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 appearances. Of those, several of these events have seen gains of 5 strokes or more with the flat-stick. The subsequent bump in his approach play, alongside improvements in driving accuracy, now show promising signs for the ball-striking from a two-time DP World Tour winner.

A third victory was very much on the cards in 2021, where he lost in a playoff to Richard Bland (who has also played well here) at The Belfry. Alongside that correlating form, a 7th last year at Crans-sur-Sierre also provided further strength to Migliozzi’s case. The early afternoon tee-time for Migliozzi is ideal, meaning he will be the 3rd group on the course Friday morning and hopefully able to avoid the very worst of the winds that afternoon.

Fabrizio Zanotti

We are seeing a great spike in Zanotti’s performance of late, as he enters this week sitting 7th in this field for SG: Tee-to-green and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. Highly accurate with the driver, Zanotti has gained accuracy off the tee on the field at every event since May 2021. Gaining multiple strokes on approach when recently finishing in 8th place at a similar course at The Belfry, as well as finishing 8th for SG: Approach last week, all indicate a golfer entering his best recent form. Sitting 8th on the DP World Tour this season for Par 5 scoring only adds further to the credentials.

Zanotti can spike with the putter, including multiple strokes at the bentgrass green when finishing 18th in Dubai earlier this year. 33rd here at last year’s Irish Open came following a missed cut, and corresponds with other Irish form with a 7th in the 2020 rendition at the similar parkland course of Galgorm Castle. Alongside a 3rd and 16th at Crans-sur-Sierre, corresponding form jumps out all over the page for him.

The 75/1 on offer is fantastic value for a golfer who has huge upside if he can bring his best putting this week, with the PM/AM tee-times an added advantage to make the weekend.

Sean Crocker

We enter the triple figure odds with another talented youngster returning to form, with the 25-year-old having finished 2nd last week for SG: Approach. Crocker began the year with 8 consecutive missed cuts, manging to right the ship at the Soudal Open when finishing 7th.

That was on a course demanding driving accuracy and clubbing down off the tee, which for a player with plenty of length off the tee is a great combination here. Driving accuracy has often been a problem for Crocker, but gaining accuracy off the tee in 4 of his last 6 (with last week just 4% off field average) and the spike in approach are all promising signs.

Crocker has a raft of top 10 finishes during 2019-2021 before that short 6 month slump. Contained within that are a 4th at Crans-sur-Sierre alongside a 9th here last year, indicating a test which should really suit a golfer returning towards his high ceilings. Crocker is in the second group out Friday morning and he represents great value at an overpriced number.

Sami Valimaki

At 23-years-old, we still are learning exactly what true ceiling for Valimaki’s game looks like. What we do know is he won at just 20-years-old on the DP World Tour, and holds an additional 4 professional wins at lower levels to suggest further success at this level is a very real possibility.

That 2020 season was his first on tour, and contained multiple tops 10s including at the season ending DP World Tour Championship to go alongside his inaugural victory. A 2nd and 6th at the parkland course at Celtic Manor, as well as 18th on the Catalunya Championship where accuracy was also at a premium, all indicate this track should fit his eye well.

Valimaki is starting to return to his best ball-striking, gaining for driving accuracy in 4/6 and sitting 28th in the field for SG: Approach in the last 3 months. A spike in performance when finishing 4th last week, when gaining in all metrics on the field but particularly finding his putter, is enough to include him here at a massive price.

Ewen Ferguson

Finally, I will round out the week with another young talent and our 2nd Scotsman. The 25-year-old secured victory at a very windy Qatar Masters, which possesses some parallels to leaderboards seen here, and spiked on approach last week when sitting 7th for SG: Approach.

Over the last 3 months, Ferguson sits 16th for SG Approach and 23rd for SG OTT in this field indicating his ball-striking is very competitive of late. 11/12 of his most recent events have seen him gain on the field for driving accuracy whilst sitting at field for driving distance, a combination that should see him in contention here. Being in the 2nd group out on Friday AM is perfect, although the wind in the Qatar victory suggest the poor weather over the weekend should be of a benefit.

The Irish form also has been very consistent. In his first year on tour, Ferguson had his best finish that season in Ireland when finishing 14th. That was at this event, hosted at the similar Galgorm Castle course where he also holds a 7th on the Challenge Tour, and he holds an additional 38th at another Irish course on the Challenge Tour.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

122nd US Open: Golf Betting Tips, Long-Shots, and Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If you haven’t already, head over here to get your full golf deep dive including course analysis and weather forecasts:
https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-course-analysis-and-weather-deep-dive/?ref=31

Suggested Staking

Headliners

Jordan Spieth 1pt E/W $29.00 (bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Jordan Spieth 2pt Top 10 $3.50 (bet365)

Cameron Young 1pt E/W $41.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cameron Young 2pt Top 20 $2.70 (bet365)

Max Homa 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Max Homa 2pt Top 20 $2.75 (TAB)

Daniel Berger 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Daniel Berger 2pt Top 20 $3.00 (bet365)

Aaron Wise 1pt E/W $76.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Aaron Wise 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (bet365)

Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz 0.25pt E/W $151.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Sebastian Munoz 1.5pt Top 20 $5.00 (bet365)

Brian Harman 0.25pt E/W $176.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brian Harman 1.5pt Top 20 $6.00 (bet365)

Ryan Fox 0.25pt E/W $201.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryan Fox 1.5pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

Lucas Herbert 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Lucas Herbert 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Francesco Molinari 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Francesco Molinari 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (bet365)

Player Profiles: Headliners

Jordan Spieth

I have been deliberately fading Jordan Spieth of late given his well-documented putting woes these past 6 months. The fact is we know that Spieth can putt, with multiple years where he has gained substantial strokes putting, and he has been one of the best on tour of late for SG: tee-to-green sitting 4th in that metric for this field over the last 3 months. He even managed a win at Harbour Town despite losing strokes putting, which is basically unheard of on tour.

We have finally seen the putter spark back to life, gaining strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 tournaments, in what was the only piece to the puzzle needed to re-enter the elite conversation. The other metrics mesh perfectly over the last 3 months: 13th SG: OTT, 26th SG: App, and 2nd SG: ATG. On that last stat he has gained strokes around the green in his last 7 appearances and, given the expected weather and small putting surfaces, his ability to get up and down holds extra appeal this week.

Spieth major record speaks for itself, his multiple major wins including the 2015 US Open (with Chambers Bay being somewhat analogous to The Country Club) and the 2017 Open Championship (where he also holds multiple top 10s and has never missed a cut). Alongside that recent win at the RBC Heritage, he also holds an excellent record at Pebble Beach with a win there as well as 2nd and 3rd place finishes in his two most recent appearances. What that is worth remains to be seen but having performed well at other venues with microscopic greens is hardly a negative.

I’m happy to beat the curve somewhat on Spieth, who rates out 7th on an odds board where he ranks better or on par in my models than several of the shorter priced golfers. I have a fair price at 18s in my models, so the 29s ranks as a steal that I am willing to jump on.

Cameron Young

The 51s on open have quickly been snapped up for Cameron Young, but with bet365 offering 8 places this week we are still seeing value at the current mark of 41s.

Perhaps best known for his ability with the driver Young is straight and long off the tee, which is always a recipe for success in US Opens. He is the 7th longest on tour for driving distance and is 2nd for SG: OTT over the last 3 months. That distance comes of benefit in his irons as well, ranking 27th this season in approach proximity for shots over 200 yards.

Where Spieth ranks 2nd in this field for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, Cameron Young sits 1st. Finding a golfer who is so prolific off the tee but also has that level of touch around the greens is beyond rare; Young is the real deal.

Young has already demonstrated this season that his skills are transitory across a wide range of golf courses. A 2nd at the traditional tough Genesis Invitational, 13th at a windy Arnold Palmer Invitational, 3rd at the shorter RBC Heritage, 2nd in the narrow and high scoring Wells Fargo Championship, and 3rd in the most recent major at the PGA Championship played on the long Southern Hills. He will be better for that appearance, when he arguably should have won, and it is only a matter of time before the 25-year-old secures a breakthrough victory.

Max Homa

Another whose distance and accuracy off the tee holds appeal, Homa enters this major on a run of 9 consecutive events gaining strokes with the driver and 11 straight events gaining strokes on approach. Combine that with gaining multiple strokes putting over his last 4 events, and 2 of his 4 PGA Tour victories coming on similar greens, and it is easy to build a case for the winner of two events this season.

Of those victories, the win at the tough Wells Fargo holds the most appeal coming on a narrow and tough track where weather was also a factor, complimented by a victory in 2021 at the tough Genesis Invitational. Rankings over the last 3 months of 19th SG: T2G, 18th SG: OTT, 10th SG: APP, and 22nd SG: PUTT suggest a well-rounded golfer ready to make the step to the next level.

If there is a chink in the armour, it is his around the green game where he sits middle of the pack in this field over the last 3 months. However, having gained strokes around the green in 5 of his last 8 strokeplay events suggests this is passable if complimented by the elite ball-striking we have seen from Homa this year.

Arriving off a 5th at Memorial, in one of the toughest fields of the year, and a best major finish of 13th at the PGA Championship, Homa arrives in excellent form to pursue a career-defining victory.

Daniel Berger

Having suffered a back sprain earlier in the year, reading Berger’s profile requires a longer-term view to gain a true reflection of his ability. When we do, we find a player who over the last 12 months has ranked at 7th for SG: T2G, 5th for SG: APP, and 24th for SG: ATG. Over the last 2 years, he also measures 32nd for SG: OTT (gained on field in last 4 events) and 30th for SG: PUTT (gained 6.8 strokes when 5th last time out at Memorial) provides a complete, well-rounded profile that can compete with the best on his day.

The missed cut at the PGA Championship should be read in the context of his first appearance from 5 weeks off, where he still managed to gain strokes off-the-tee, and followed most recently by top performances in high class fields suggesting the back should no longer be of any concern. Some of Berger’s best major performances have come of late, with a 7th in the 2021 US Open and 8th in the 2021 Open Championship bettered only by a 6th at the 2018 US Open (where Shinnecock Hills is again at least somewhat analogous to here). A victory at Pebble Beach in 2021 followed a 5th place finish there in 2020, and recent form at Harbour Town of 3-13-21 suggesting these smaller targets seem to suit the eye.

Aaron Wise

At the Memorial Tournament, I went back and forth between Wise and Kirk for my final tip. Kirk received favouritism, and Wise duly popped up for a 2nd place finish where he gained a massive 8.48 strokes on approach to the field.

Wise sits 6th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months, 16th for SG:T2G, has gained strokes off-the-tee in 10 out of 11 tournaments (losing just 0.40 strokes at the Mexico Open), gained strokes ATG in 6 of 9 recent appearances, and has gained 4.84 and 5.24 strokes putting in his last two outings.

Despite not holding a glittering major record, Wise has made his last 6 major cuts with results of 17-41-35-41-17-23. These all came at a time where we were not seeing the same metric profile we find here, as the 25-year-old enters this tournament in the best form of his short career.

For 76s, we are getting a lot of value for a player who should be priced at 60s based on my models.

Player Profiles: Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz

Gained stokes both OTT and APP in 10/12 of his most recent tournaments, stroked putting in 6/7 tournaments and has been at or above field average for SG: ATG in his last 10 appearances.

Sat 2nd when entering the final round of The Players Championship before fading Sunday, a challenging tournament played in windy conditions and demanding elite ball striking. 36th entering final round at PGA Championship before following a similar pattern, the more he gives himself opportunities in these big events the better.

A surprise top 20 is certainly on the cards, and at 150s for the wins should be at shorter odds for the 54th best player in the world according to OWGR.

Ryan Fox

One of two golfers where I’ve foregone the preferred Thursday AM/Friday PM wave. Fox ranks out 4th in this field over the last 3 months for weighted SG: APP. On the DP World Tour this season, he is 4th SG: APP, 4th SG: T2G, and 10th for putts per GIR.

Recent form of W-15-9-8-2-54-2 and, although majority of results were at the lower level of the DP World Tour, the 54th at the recent PGA Championship was where he sat 17th when entering the final round. Best major performances have come at The Open Championship, with 4/5 made cuts and a 16th in 2019.

Well known for his prolific distance off the tee we have seen him play well this year at a variety of courses, including the Soudal Open which was a tight and narrow test. Fox likes to club down and hit a 2 iron off the tee, as he did there, and it should also be noted that his 9th at the Catalunya Championship was unfortunately hampered by that same club suffering a fracture to the shaft limiting his options off the tee. That ability to club down off the tee for accuracy, as well as confidence with his long irons generally, all should be of benefit at this links-like test.

Brian Harman

Harman quietly holds excellent US Open form, with recent outings of 2-36-38-19 all coming at longer tests than he finds this week.

Highly accurate off the tee, Harman is 18th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months and has hit a good run of putting lately ranking 29th for SG: PUTT over the last 3 months.

Lucas Herbert

My other golfer on the other side of the weather draw, I always play Herbert in questionable and windy conditions.

All three of his victories have come in windy conditions, with a PGA Tour win at the October 2021 Bermuda Championship as well as high profile DP World Tour wins at the 2021 Irish Open and the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic.

Herbert possesses an excellent short-game which should hold him in a test that will demand scrambling from even the best ball strikers. Herbert ranks our 6th for SG: PUTT and 25th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, and these metrics follow on a longer 12 months forecast with rankings of 4th and 39th respectively.

The Australian was 31st at his last US Open appearance in 2020 and arrives here a better player. Coming off his best major finish of 13th at the recent PGA Championship, when we were on at 300/1. Hebert was the 2nd lowest round of the afternoon players at that tournament, one stroke behind Justin Thomas, in a big weather draw. He entered the final round in 10th, was just one shot off the lead midway through the final round before eventually finishing in 13th. Cashed some overpriced Top 30 tickets for us that week at $9.50 and another top finish is certainly possible for the young Australian.

Francesco Molinari

Although perhaps regarded as past his prime, Molinari is another who holds a quietly impressive US Open record with most recent finishes of 25-16-13. Complimented by a 2018 Open Championship major victory and followed by 11th in 2019, all suggest a golfer who can still mix with the best at the top of the leader boards in these tougher tests.

Gained strokes on approach in 5 of 7 most recent tournaments, 27th in this field for SG: ATG and gained on the field ATG in 6 of his last 9 appearances. Recent finishes of 17th, 55th at a PGA Championship which was far too long a course for him, and a respectable 26th at the strong field seen at The Memorial Tournament. Could surprise at massive odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

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RBC Canadian Open Golf Betting Tips: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

An interesting couple of tournaments last week, where on both sides of the Atlantic we saw incredibly tough golf courses humble the best golfers in the world and, occasionally, bringing them to their knees. Of the two, The Memorial provided exactly what Jack Nicklaus wanted: a tough test which rewarded good shots and punished those who were just slightly wayward. On the other hand, the Porsche European Open sometimes proved penal simply for the sake of being penal and made for tough viewing.

The week proved frustrating for a number of reasons. On the DP World Tour, having backed Victor Perez successfully the week before was right in contention the following week. I strangely found myself cheering him on, having had both of his main challengers Kalle Samooja and Wil Besseling firmly on my watch radar. I had taken a particularly long look at Samooja before eventually fading him on the basis he was arriving on the back of three missed cuts. Fortunately, the ever consistent Edoardo Molinari came through for a Top 5 E/W place and a Top 10 payout to ease some of that pain, marking 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 5 starts.

At The Memorial, Shane Lowry managed to defy his form and produce his worst performance of the year albeit a mildly respectable 32nd place finish. Matthew Fitzpatrick produced statistically his worst putting performance of all time to miss the cut. Interestingly, this is at a course which now holds his two worst putting performances as well as inexplicitly a 3rd where he gained more than 8 strokes putting to make for one of the most bizarre form guides to consider in future.

My biggest decision of the week came down to tipping Chris Kirk or Aaron Wise, who both held similar appeal. I backed Kirk and Wise duly finished 2nd. Brendan Steele reaffirmed his fantastic pre-tournament value by cashing both a Top 10 E/W place and a Top 20 finish.

Despite all the hoopla of the financially rich and morally bereft LIV Golf tour this week, which provides a sad but tangible threat to golf as we know it, there is a golf tournament this week full of history and prestige featuring 5 of the top 10 golfers in the world at the RBC Canadian Open. Who should you be betting this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.

Course Analysis

The RBC Canadian Open returns to the iconic and beautiful St George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto for the first time since 2010. On first glance, the course presents as a short 7,014 yard par 70. A deeper dive into the scorecard reveals this may not be the case.

The setup includes an unusual mix of 5 Par 3s and 3 Par 5s. 4 of these par 3s play over 200 yards and will represent a put element in constructing a round, either through bogey avoidance or potential birdie opportunities. This allows 5 of the Par 4s to play at 465 yards or longer. The Par 5s all play at 560 yards or less and, theoretically, would provide an opportunity for many to reach in two. The only caveat to that is the fairways provide narrow, tree-lined targets which are bordered by 3.5 inch thick Kentucky bluegrass.

Greens are some of the smallest on tour barely breaching 4,000 sq ft on average (for comparison, only a few hundred sq ft larger than Pebble Beach). The course features more than 100 bunkers, the majority of which are dotted with generosity around these miniscule targets.

All in all, a test of accuracy and recovery appears to be on the cards. Driving accuracy should receive slightly more weight than driving distance. I also like a few more traditional metrics this week: Proximity to Pin from 200 yds+, Birdie or better from 200 yds+, Scrambling and Sand Saves.

Weather

On Monday and Tuesday, heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through Toronto producing flood warnings. This huge volume of rain will undoubtedly have an impact on the softness of the course and particularly on day one.

Further aiding this, a fair amount of rain is due overnight on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning meaning those playing Thursday AM should enjoy some of the best scoring conditions if they can find the fairway and avoid the thick and wet rough. Thursday PM has seen some forecasts of thunderstorms and gusts between 25-29mph.

Friday should see windier conditions, with moderate winds of 10-14mph but with gusts of 20-24mph should provide some added difficulty all day. The weekend should produce calm and fine conditions for all.

I do see an advantage, albeit it mild, for Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times. It is not significant enough to justify a full fade on a golfer you favour starting Thursday PM, but it bears consideration if deciding between two close options.

Tee-times are available here: https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/rbc-canadian-open/tee-times.html

Course Comps

Similar short course profiles demanding accuracy off the tee and smaller greens are:

Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
TPC Potomac (2022 Wells Fargo Championship, also indicating recent form)
PGA National Champion Course (Honda Classic)
Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge, also indicating recent form)

RBC Canadian Open – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.5pts E/W $21.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Brendon Todd 0.5 pts E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Brendon Todd 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (TAB)

Aaron Rai 0.5 pts E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Aaron Rai 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (Bet365)

Rasmus Hojgaard 0.5 pts E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Rasmus Hojgaard 2pts Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Mark Hubbard 0.5 pts E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Mark Hubbard 2pts Top 20 $5.00 (Bet365)

John Huh 0.5 pts E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
John Huh 2pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Ryan Armour 0.5 pts E/W $191.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Ryan Armour 2pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Matthew Fitzpatrick

I am prepared to put the pain of being badly burned last week to go back to the well on Fitzpatrick this week. A key to being a somewhat sane and rational sport bettor must involve removing emotion and bias where possible to look at the situation objectively.

When doing so, and as mentioned in opening, we see a player who had his worst ever putting performance on a course where he also has had his 2nd worst putting performance. Fitzpatrick is an excellent putter (6th in this field for SG: Putting) who has not lost strokes putting in consecutive weeks since January 2021. We know putting is the most volatile of metrics and a reversion to his mean is likely on the cards here.

The metrics overall make easy reading as on the PGA Tour this season he ranks in traditional metrics as 15th for Birdie or Better Percentage 200+ yards, 7th for Sand Save percentage, and 4th for scrambling. In this field specifically, over the last 6 months he is 5th for SG: T2G, 4th for SG: OTT, 15th SG: Approach, 12th SG: ATG, and 20th SG: Putting (taking a dent from last week’s anomaly performance).

What Fitzpatrick did do last week was produce his best SG: Approach performance since October 2020. Of his 11 tournaments this year, Fitzpatrick has produced 8 performances finishing 18th or better. The other 3 tournaments he missed the cut completely and 6 of them he finished in the Top 10. I like the high upside this brings from a player searching for his first PGA Tour victory but holding 7 wins on the DP World Tour. To secure his first PGA Tour outside mainland USA would not be inconceivable.

Fitzpatrick holds a 2nd at TPC Potomac this year, a 5th at this year’s Valspar Championship, and has a 4th, 14th, and 14th at RBC Heritage in 2021, 2020, and 2018. A 6th at Pebble Beach’s shorter layout and smaller greens this year is also of note.

Fitzpatrick has undoubtedly added a lot more distance to his game this year, but a course where he can potentially club down to a 3 wood or iron off many tees and a slightly above average putting performance would see him challenging the very top of the leaderboard. Thursday AM tee-times suits and I also like him in FRL markets at 30s.

Brendon Todd

Although Fitzpatrick holds appeal in his desire to simply secure his first PGA Tour victory, I like to fade the majority of big names the week before a major. It worked well for us at the Valero Texas Open where I tipped 150/1 shot JJ Spaun to victory and I am happy to apply the theory again here.

Too often do we see obvious picks flounder to a poor finish as their real focus is on the US Open next week, using the tournament as a warm-up to iron out any tweaks to their game. For the most part, I like to take some of the longer odds where a victory any week matters both for the prestige but also the all-important Fed Ex points.

Todd represents a highly accurate driver who last time out we saw impress when finishing 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I backed him earlier this year as well when he finished 26the at the RBC Heritage. Interestingly narrative wise, Todd played well when finishing 8th the week before the Masters at the Valero Texas Open on a track that wasn’t necessarily the best course fit which we find here. He also holds an additional 4th at RBC Heritage and a 10th in 2021 at Sedgefield Country Club.

Todd is 5th for driving accuracy, 40th for sand save percentage, and 12th for scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. Given his recent form, performance on comparable courses, and his metric profile we are getting a lot of value at 70s here.

Aaron Rai

At his best, Aaron Rai has the game to compete with the very best but does need a course such as this to be truly competitive as he generally loses a little distance off the tee to the tour average.

Rai won’t necessarily pop as much as others given his relatively short time span on the PGA Tour and only being 27 years old. He currently ranks out 26th for driving accuracy, 41st for Proximity for 200+ yards, above average for sand saves and for scrambling. Rai has continued to grow since joining the PGA Tour and has gained strokes for approach and OTT in his previous two seasons. Being a 2 time winner on the DP World Tour and a further 2 times on the Challenge Tour, he does hold some upside appeal.

There is little to go off in comp courses given this is his first full season on the PGA Tour, but we do know he prefers these shorter formats with 26th last year coming at TPC Southwind (7,126 yards), 16th at the RSM Classic (6,837 yards), and 19th at Houston Open (7,067 yards) going alongside 4th at the recent Zurich Classic which although a team format was a short 7,341 par 72. Also of note for some correlation, visually at least, is Wentworth Golf Club on the DP World Tour where Rai previously holds finishes of 14th and 26th.

Rasmus Hojgaard

I am happy to take another DP World Tour stalwart in the talented Rasmus Hojgaard. The Dane is already regarded as part of the elite on the other side of the Atlantic, where despite his young age of just turning 21 years old he already holds an impressive 3 victories.

His ISPS Handa UK Championship win came at a short course in The Belfry which at 7,328 yard par 72 demands accuracy off the tee as well as scrambling around the greens, The Mauritius Open win was on a 7,036 par 71, and the most recent win in August 2021 was at the Omega European Masters on a 6,848 yard par 70.

In his two PGA Tour appearances this year, he has finished 6th at the Corales Puntacana and 18th at the Valero Texas Open (a week prior to another major). Backing this up is his recent iron play, again playing The Belfry well when finishing 16th just 3 starts back and gaining over 8 strokes on approach finishing 3rd in the field for SG: Approach and a 10th place finish at the Dutch Open. Further, he has not missed a cut since October 2021.

All in all, we are getting a lot of golfer at over-priced at triple figures for a golfer who is likely flying under the radar for many who aren’t as familiar with the DP World Tour players.

Mark Hubbard

As we look to the longer odds for value this week, Hubbard continued to pop up in my models as a golfer who needs a shorter track like this to hold appeal.

Most notable is Hubbard’s short-game, where he sits 15th in this field for SG: ATG for the last 12 months and backed up by sitting in the upper quartile for approach ranking 32nd for SG: Approach as well as 39th for SG: Putting. He is above average for Birdie or Better Percentage over 200+ yards, 30th on tour for sand saves, and 14th on tour for scrambling.

Perhaps most eye-catching of related form was a 2nd in late 2019 at the Houston Open (7,067 yards), 15th at the Honda Classic this year where he also has an 11th in 2020, 15th and 24th at Sedgefield Country Club, and finishing 3rd for SG: Approach recently at the AT&T Byron Nelson played at TPC Craig Ranch (7,249 par 72). More hidden is the Korn Ferry Tour form where he holds a 5th at the Louisiana Open (7,004 yard par 71), 9th at the Club Car Championship (7,185 yard par 72), and 12th at the Veritex Bank Championship (7,010 yard par 71) as well as 14th at the aforementioned Zurich Classic.

Still to secure his card for next year, Hubbard has every motivation to play well and finds a real opportunity at a course that should suit his profile.

John Huh

We stick at the 140 mark for my penultimate tip in John Huh. Huh is one of the most accurate off the tee not just in this field but on tour, ranking 24th for the season in driving accuracy as well as 58th on tour for sand saves complimentary to the test these golfers will face this week. Having performed above average in every metric for strokes gained on this field over the past 3 months, this perhaps reflect the relative strength of the field encountered this week outside the top 5 but also a golfer we can find appeal at longer odds.

The jump for 12th in his last outing (when sitting 5th after 3 rounds) came at the short course playing the Charles Schwab Challenge, where accuracy is required, and was certainly enough to put him on our radar here. Looking further, a 9th at the Honda Classic this year and 12th at the RSM Classic also holding short course appeal and representing his best performances this year.

Huh also holds another 14th, 17th and 19th at the Honda Classic, a 3rd at the RBC Heritage, 9th at Valspar, and 3rd at Sedgefield Country Club. His PGA Tour victory came at the Mayakoba Golf Classic played at the Greg Norman designed El Chameleon playing at just 6,981 for a par 71.

Admittedly many of these results occurred several years ago, but the recent form and the prior comparable course form certainly indicate a strong performance would not necessarily be unexpected on another suitable track.

Ryan Armour

We finish up the tips for the week with perhaps my favourite value pick of the week.

Armour’s immediate form on face value is unlikely to hold immediate appeal. But when you jump into a deep dive of the underlying statistics, he ticks practically every box. Armour is 1st this season for driving accuracy on tour, 11th for proximity to pin from 200+ yards, 6th for sand save percentage, and 20th for scrambling. That is precisely the profile I am looking at this week, and I can get it at odds of 200/1 in places.

In most recent shorter term form Armour sits 17th for SG: T2G, 23rd for SG: OTT (obviously all coming from driving accuracy), and 5th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months in this field.

For comp courses, a 25th recently at TPC Potomac holds some appeal in a stronger field than here where he has also finished 2nd previously. A 4th and 8th at Sedgefield Country Club, 6th at Valspar, and 12th at Honda Classic all tell us this is exactly the type of track Ryan Armour is looking for.

Unfortunately, since backing him I do believe the 200/1 has disappeared in a lot of places and may take some searching to find. If you can get it, grab it as some of the best value you can acquire this week.

3 years ago 0 comments

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