GOLF

The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges.  This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT.  As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal.  More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.

Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value.  I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier.  He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes.  I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like.  He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity).  Overall he’s 6^th OTT and 12^th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.

Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12^th in my 24 Round model (9^th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been.  He finished 23^rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low.  I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.  

Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6^th in my model this week.  His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week.  I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.

Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament.  No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close.  He’s 2^nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG.  The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great. 

Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck.  He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20^th OTT and 15^th APP.  He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG.  Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.

Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit.  I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs.  An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot.  He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.

Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else.  He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway.  He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.

Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall.  However he’s 13^th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.

Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21^st).  He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG.  If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.

Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament.  Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.

Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice.  He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8^th place finish last week.  Also has a great track record here.  Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your Memorial Tournament lineups.

The PGA Tour has one last stop before its next major and that stop is in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  The 152 player field should be able to attack this golf course as there doesn’t appear to be much by way of trouble and/or hazards. This is the first time the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at Craig Ranch (7500 yard Par 72), and therefore, you can ignore course history. You’ll want to focus on OTT and APP and PUTT. I rank APP just above OTT in this one with PUTT being a distant third place. More on the SG metrics and specific proximities on the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.

Jordan Spieth (10700) – He’s one of many guys I like that is from the area and he’s the best player T2G in this field.  I like Bryson and Rahm in this range as well, but if I can only pick one golfer, it’s going to be Jordan. 

Will Zalatoris (9700) – Coming off a missed cut but that’s no reason to pivot.  Zalatoris grades out 1^st on APP last 36 rounds and while his OTT game has been somewhat average, his overall ball striking is certainly elite.  Add to that he’s playing at home and is very familiar with this course. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (9500) – An elite player that remains under the radar.  He’s 9^th OTT last 36 rounds but 1^st OTT last 12 rounds.  He grades out as the number one player in the 450-500 yard range.  His long irons sometimes give him issues so that could spell trouble on APP, but I expect the best putter in this field to make up for it on the greens.

Ryan Palmer (9100) – Palmer has been hot this year but has cooled off a bit as of late.  He lives 40 minutes north of this course and has played it at least “a couple dozen times” and holds the course record here (61).  He’s 11^th in my model and I think he has the upside to compete here late Sunday afternoon.

Luke List (8400) – He’s 11^th in the field T2G over last 12 rounds and 6^th OTT in the last 36 rounds.  He gained across all categories last week at the Wells Fargo.  His putter can really get him in trouble and therefore I like him better as a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – He’s been very good for a few tournaments in a row now.  He was 3^rd in the field T2G last week and he’s within the Top 10 in this field T2G over the last 12 rounds.  This feels like a good value play in the low 8k range. 

Russell Knox (7700) – He was bad earlier this year but over the last 12 rounds he’s started to find his old form and that has resulted in being Top 15 T2G over the last 12 rounds.  He was 2^nd in the field T2G at Wells Fargo, but lost a good amount PUTT.

Doug Ghim (7500) – This tournament could turn into a putting contest and that’s not exactly where Ghim would want to be, but his T2G game is elite and in a GPP he will give you great value if he’s even decent with the putter.

Jhonnatan Vegas (7200) – number 1 in the field OTT at Wells Fargo (gained over 7 strokes total OTT).  He lost most of his strokes ARG which shouldn’t hurt him too badly at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  He’s 4^th OTT last 36 rounds.

Roger Sloan (6900) – The 6k range is tough this week and there aren’t a lot of great options.  Sloan is someone I’m willing to the roll the dice with because he’s been solid with the ball striking lately.  He’s typically giving up a lot of strokes ARG but if his APP is on point (which it usually is), he shouldn’t need to worry too much about that.  He’ll need to find the putter.

Chris Baker (6000) – Baker doesn’t have a lot of rounds under his belt, but his ball striking has been good enough in limited work for me to include him in this article.  He’s obviously a GPP dart at this minimum price, but if you are trying to stack elite players you may be able to find some value in the abyss. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-7.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.

The PGA Tour is in North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Players will need to bring the big stick as OTT game takes a major role in a successful week here.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP and I’ll have a particular focus on proximities of 175 through 200+ as those are back in play just like last week.  While the second shot proximities remain similar to last week, the big difference at Wells Fargo is the sheer length of the course and what will be required off the tee.  Don’t completely rule out shorter hitters, but certainly give the edge or the tiebreaker to a guy that can hit it long.  Make sure you listen to tonight’s Win Daily Sports PGA show as we will bring you much more perspective on the course dynamics and each player in this field.  Now let’s get to the Wells Fargo picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11000) – I really think Justin Thomas should be included in this article but I only want to make room for two in this elite range, so I’m going to go with Bryson and Rahm (see below).  This course gives a big advantage to OTT game and Bryson is the Captain of Team OTT.  Rest of his game hasn’t been too bad either and I think this is an excellent course fit.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Speaking of elite OTT game, Rahm hasn’t lost strokes OTT in a very long time.  He rates out 2^nd OTT in this Calendar year (behind only Bryson and his APP game has been stellar as well, particularly on shots of 175-200+.  He rates out number 1 in my model.  Again, honorable mention in this range goes to JT and I should also add Webb Simpson.

Corey Conners (9200) – If you’re looking for a great ball striker who has been particularly good OTT, then look no further than the 5^th ranked golfer in my model.  Only thing holding this guy back right now is the short game, but that shouldn’t hurt him too badly here.  Give me the ball striker.

Joaquin Niemann (9100) – The only issue with Niemann is he rarely puts all facets of his game together but he’s clearly an elite player just waiting for his moment.  This guy has a small frame but absolutely crushes the ball OTT.  His history at the Wells Fargo is limited and not particularly great, but I’m willing to take a chance on a good course fit and a rising star.

Bubba Watson (8300) – I’m not a Bubba guy, but he has been pretty great lately and I think this DK price is very fair.  Watson has been finishing strong lately and making cuts at the rate of vintage Bubba Watson.  His long iron and putting game has been shaky as of the last 36 rounds, but I’m willing to take a chance on Bubba, but only in GPP’s.

Emiliano Grillo (8100) – a great price for a great ball striker who has been surprisingly great OTT.  Grillo is both a GPP and cash game play as his ball striking and history at this course speak to a golfer that should probably be closer to 8500 rather than 8100.  As usual, he will need to find the putter.

Stewart Cink (7900) – Already a two time winner this year, Cink is in the midst of a great stretch of golf.  That great stretch included a takedown at the RBC and a 12^th at the Masters.  Most people may think he’s not the best course fit here due to a presumed lack of length of the tee.  Cink is inside the Top 20 in driving distance over the last 36 rounds, and for the sake of context, he has been driving it longer than Jon Rahm.  The floor is low for Cink but the ceiling is quite high.

Matt Jones (7500) – As you build your lineups, you’ll find yourself in this exact price range quite often and my favorite guy in this particular range is Matt Jones.  He’s a good course fit as he has made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here and his recent history is pretty good as well, and that includes a 1^st place at the Honda.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – We’re getting into the danger zone in this price range, but I’ll go ahead and lean on last week’s Secret Weapon (34-6, but who’s counting) as this course will demand a lot of the same from last week from an APP standpoint.  While he doesn’t appear to be a good course fit, his last two efforts at Wells Fargo resulted in an 8^th and 13^th place finish.

Adam Schenk (6800) – A simple case of riding the hot hand as he has finished within the Top 25 over the last three tournaments (for the sake of fairness, one of those tournaments was the Zurich Classic match play).  Either way, Schenk has been striking it well lately and finished 13^th here the last time this tournament was played in 2019.

Luke List (6800) – Some clear deficiencies in List’s game, particularly with the putter and certain APP metrics (175-200), but the OTT game is there as he ranks 12^th OTT over the last 36 rounds in this field.  In 2019 he made the cut but finished 65^th and in 2018 he finished 9^th.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-6.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.

The PGA Tour is back in Florida for one last time in 2021 and the field will be given a true test at the Valspar Championship. The Valspar is a tough course that will hurt you if you’re not in the fairway and will test all parts of your game. This week I’m focusing on APP, Driving Accuracy and ARG more than the the other metrics. As for APP, I’m taking a hard look at proximities between 175-200 and 200+ as a lot of shots will come from that range. Tune into our Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on all the golfers in this field.

Dustin Johnson (11200) – I don’t love the elite range this week, but I do like the fact that DJ will likely float under the radar at the Valspar Championship as he has been unimpressive over the last couple of months.  In spite of his recent struggles, over the last 36 rounds he still rates out 5^th in my model.

Corey Conners (9600) – Will fit nicely into your cash games, but likely to garner some high ownership so be mindful of that in your GPP’s.  Conners has been striking the ball better than everyone on tour and the short game is really coming around.  He rates out very high in my model as expected.

Tyrrell Hatton (9400) – Hatton is starting to come around but he has been plagued by inconsistency.  With that said, he’s inside the Top 10 in my model and is excellent in the notable proximity ranges (long iron play).  He is a big risk ARG and that could hurt him here, unless he’s striping those irons like he has been.  I’m willing to take the leap in GPP’s.

Russell Henley (9000) – I’m looking for guys who keep it in the fairway, are great on APP and are good on APP from long distances.  Henley checks all the boxes and rates out very high on my model.  A good price here and a solid cash and GPP play.

Justin Rose (8800) – I’m a bit surprised I’m writing Rose up as I haven’t rostered him in years.  It’s pretty clear the game is coming around and he’s gained strokes in a significant manner in three tournaments in a row.  There’s no reason to believe his game won’t translate well to the tough test at the Valspar Championship so I’m happy to roster him this week in GPP’s, but I’ll stay away in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (8400) – Certainly seems like a low price for Tringale considering that his ball striking has been great all year.  Part of the reason for this low price is his terrible history at this tournament (missed all three cuts the last three times he’s played here), but I’m willing to overlook that and hope the ball striking stays in good order.

Denny McCarthy (7500) – I think Denny is a solid GPP play this week as you may be catching him early while his ball striking game begins to rise.  The putter has always been his strong suit but the ball striking has made a bit of a comeback after a terrible stretch a few months back.  He finished 9^th here last year and recent form has been great.

Lucas Glover (7400) – He will need to find a hot putter to contend on Sunday, but outside of his struggles with the flat stick, he has been good.  His APP stats this year are good, but not great, but he looks like a player on the rise so I’ll ride the wave.

Rory Sabbatini (7100) – His stats don’t necessarily provide a beautiful picture, but he’s a smart and plotting player that should fit well on this course.  If history is any indication, you are getting value with Rory here as he’s finished 18^th and 5^th in his last two efforts at the Valspar Championship.

Kyle Stanley (6800) – Rates out 30^th in my model and checks most of the boxes, particularly on APP.  The big issue with Stanley will always be the putter.  To be clear, he’s a horrible putter, but he is actually on his best putting surface at the Valspar Championship (Bermuda) so if there were a time to take a chance on putter regression with Stanley, it’s here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and take advantage of the promotional offers at windailysports.com.