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Porsche European Open: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive & Golf Betting Tips

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Winner winner! A fantastic result last week at the Dutch Open as Victor Perez provided our 6th winner of the year at juicy $56.00 odds. Having back him each way, we also grabbed a Top 5 place payout at equivalent odds of $14.75 and a Top 10 at $6.50.

We had 3 of our 4 other golfers with Ross Fisher, Jordan Smith, and Haotong Li all either in the lead or just one back at some point during the tournament. Haotong was perhaps the most promising, having shot the low round of the week on Friday posting a 9 under 63 (including being 7 under after his first 9 holes) to lead at the halfway mark before falling away in dramatic fashion over the weekend.

It was a nervous finish for a couple of reasons. The most obvious being that the win required a playoff which took Victor Perez 4 holes to complete with some of the most incredible long putts being drained. But there was also the added factor that his competitor was my countryman Ryan Fox, who I had tipped for the previous 3 weeks creating a serious threat of FOMO.

Fortunately, Victor Perez secured his 2nd DP World Tour win for us and drove our year-to-date ROI to a whopping 27% for my DP World Tour picks.

This week the DP World Tour moves just south of Hamburg, Germany where Tommy Fleetwood appears as the headliner, in what always provides a stern test. The field should prove interesting, with the announcement of the first LIV Golf field providing some intrigue as to whether those named will tee it up here. Who should you bet for the Porsche European Open? This is everything you need to know with your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.

Course Analysis

Green Eagles Golf Courses plays host this week, where it has been hosted here since 2017, of note being that 2020 did not occur due to COVID and 2021 was a truncated 54 holes due to Germany COVID restrictions at the time. The course here has always used the North Course, which can play as an absolute brute as one of the 10 longest golf courses in the world at up to 7,836 yards.

Rather sadly, the tour do not opt to play to the maximum distance here, in what I believe would make an interesting challenge. In fact, the course will play a little shorter this year than the 7,544 yard par 72 seen in previous iterations as the par 3 4th is reduced from 224 yards to 154 yards for a total distance of 7,475 yards.

Another strange quirk is the finishing holes, with 3 of the 5 par 5s coming in the last 4 holes with a run from the 14th of par 3-par 5-par 5-par 3-par 5. The par 5s provide a target for birdies meaning a late challenge is possible. It is worth avoiding the instant temptation to simply play bombers, as of the 5 par 5s only the final 18th is truly reachable in two at 517 yards. The rest of the par 5s measure 594 yards or further which keeps the short hitters in play in what can become a wedge contest from 125 yards and in.

I like looking at SG: OTT here as a measure, as although distance can prove beneficial so does keeping the ball in play on a course that features water hazards on practically every hole. With fairly forgiving fairways, the water can usually be avoided but anything seriously errant may find trouble. Again, large greens greet the players and SG: Approach should be used to provide guidance here especially those who can get it closer with superior wedge-play. Of comparable course, Le Golf National and the Open de France provides one of the better examples. Expect a winning score in the 10-15 under range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q746gOhcOic

Weather

There seems to be a fairly clear advantage in the forecasts to those Thursday AM/Friday PM. Thursday will be cold and sees winds in the range of 6-9mph with gusts between 11-18mph. This will build throughout the day with some light drizzle and winds reaching a peak around 2pm, with winds of 10-13mph but gusts up to 22-28mph.

Friday should see clam conditions throughout the day with no major disadvantage to those in the afternoon. In fact, the temperatures rising to a milder 21C in the afternoon on Friday afternoon could even prove beneficial for distance.

The weekend provides little challenge with moderate winds and some but not mild gusts. The advantage is not significant enough to recommends playing Thursday AM/Friday PM exclusively if there is someone in the alternate times that you are hot on, but it is worthy of consideration when constructing your lineup and betting tips.

Porsche European Open – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Mikko Korhonen 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Edoardo Molinari 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Connor Syme 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Connor Syme 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)

Ross Fisher 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Ross Fisher 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)

Eddie Pepperell 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Eddie Pepperell 1pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

Frederic Lacroix 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Frederic Lacroix 1pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Mikko Korhonen

Having tipped up Korhonen at the Catalunya Championship (where he finished 33rd), he has proceeded to follow that up with finishes of 8th and 14th in his two most recent starts meaning we are back on here.

This is a golfer who finished 7th here last year, but arrived at that tournament off the back of a missed cut compared to the much better form we find him in at this year’s Porsche European Open. In this instance, Korhonen has gained SG: Approach on his last four tournaments and grown his advantage over the field in that category at each of those tournaments indicating he is trending upwards with his iron play.

The highly accurate driver has gained in every metric the last three tournaments and has not finished higher solely due to his putter. He currently sits 9th in this field for SG: T2G in the last 3 months.

Yet, he arrives at a course where he far outperformed expected strokes gained with the flat-stick when finishing 6th for SG: Putting in 2021. It suggests he does have a positive affinity to this surface and, if he can get both components to gel, he should threaten a 3rd DP World Tour victory.

Edoardo Molinari

Having again threatened the lead at stages at last week’s Dutch Open, I remain adamant that another DP World Tour victory is around the corner for Molinari. We find him at higher odds than the previous two tournaments, pushing him into a positive expected value for this week.

Molinari’s ball-striking is what draws us to him again, as this short but accurate iron player arrives as the 5th best player in this field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months, 15th for SG: OTT the last 3 months, and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 6 months.

As always, the putter is what we need from Molinari. He finished 2nd in last year’s tournament which hold promise, as well as having trended towards better putting in his last 4 tournaments being either gaining or very small losses to the field. Having watched his last few appearances closely, the putting has been far from terrible with multiple putts over 10 feet continuing to threaten the hole and miss by mere inches. A few more that drop, and his excellent run of recent results would likely lead to a win.

Connor Syme

We jump into the triple figure odds quite early this week, in a field that outside the top 5 looks very open.

Syme has a record of 22nd and 18th at his two appearances here. Both came after some very ordinary form, the 22nd after a run of two missed cuts and a 32nd and the 18th after a run of another two missed cuts.

The 26 year old Syme has looked much more comfortable on the DP World Tour this year. He was one of the best putters in the field at both the Soudal Open and the Betfred British Masters where he popped for a 3rd. After a two week break, his approach play spiked from having lost strokes on the field for the 4 prior tournaments and having hit the ball better earlier in the year.

During that run, a 27th and 6th at Ras Al-Khaimah came on a similar track that had wide enough fairways to allow for some more aggressive tee-shots and large greens as seen in this week’s tournament.

Ross Fisher

Ross Fisher remains overpriced for a golfer with excellent credentials for this test. Fisher is 6th for SG: T2G in this field, gaining plenty off the tee with his driving distance playing a key part in that performance where he ranks 4th for SG: OTT.

Having gained in SG: Approach in 6/9 tournaments, with a 7th tournament basically a push at field average, there are signs he should enjoy a track that allows a more liberal approach with the driver. Again, we need some putting from the Englishman, but he is at a track where he gained 6 strokes on the field putting here in 2019. He has good correlating form at Le Golf National as well with a run of 34-26-22-7 there.

The last two tournaments he has been at or just below the field average for putting, suggesting that if he can roll a few in on relatively tame greens he could be in contention at triple figure odds.

Eddie Pepperell

Pepperell was backed at the British Masters, where he failed to do much following a difficult first round before scrambling to make the weekend and finish 48th, and again followed up with a jump in performance to pop up for a 14th last week. I am happy to hold that we were a little early timing a return to form for Pepperell and I’m pleased to see he remains at long odds here.

This is a golfer who has finished 3rd at The Players Championship, 6th at the BMW PGA Championship, and 4th at the Irish Open to go with wins at the Qatar Masters and the 2018 British Masters. Jumping up in ball striking last week to finish 21st for SG Approach as well as some confident putting, I am happy to take at long odds where a top 20 appearance seems very possible should the 31 year old continue this return to form.

Frederic Lacroix

Finally, I round up this week’s Porsche European Open tips with an up and comer Freddie Lacroix. In his first year on the main DP World Tour, he held an excellent record on the Challenge Tour in 2021 including a 9th in Germany in September of that year.

Lacroix has gained for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting in his last three appearances, which includes a 21st at the British Masters and a 24th at the Dutch Open, ranking 26th for putting and 29th for approach over the last 30 days in this field. The driver has been where he has lost shots, but that distance can prove useful here on a track that can provide opportunities for those with some extra length off the tee.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.

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You can read my The Memorial Tournament golf betting tips, deep dive, and analysis here: https://windailysports.com/memorial-tournament-your-pga-tour-golf-deep-dive-and-betting-tips/?ref=31

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3 years ago 0 comments

Memorial Tournament: Your PGA Tour Golf Deep Dive and Betting Tips

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

For the second week in a row, entering the final day of the Charles Schwab Challenge we had a leader several shots in front and seemingly cruising to victory. And, once again, we were treated to watching the best in the game capitulate completely as a golfer 7 shots back came through to win (this time in the form of Sam Burns rather than Justin Thomas).

The Charles Schwab Challenge started in fine fashion for our tips, with Webb Simpson and Harold Varner III both securing a first-round lead alongside 6 others and Kevin Na just one shot off the leading pack. HV3 emerged as the most likely of our tips to compete and, with 12 holes to play, he held a share of the lead at 10 under looking perhaps the most likely contender to come through. Fast-forward 90 minutes, filled with winds where several players struggled with putts less than 5 feet such was the ferocity, and he finished at even par and 9 shots off the score needed to make the playoff. I said it last week and I’ll say it again: golf is a wonderful sport.

Fortunately, Kevin Na came through for a cash with a Top 10 paying $6.50 to at least ease some of the pain of the HV3 blow-up. Overall, a small loss for the week on the PGA Tour taking our ROI to 15%. In better news, over on the DP World Tour tips delivered us our 6th win of the year with Victor Perez cashing at 56/1 but the allure of the double on both sides of the pond still eludes us.

This week the tour moves to Dublin (Ohio variety) for another landmark tournament. As Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, it is one of the most prestigious events of the year outside of the majors and has attracted a warranted elite field as a result. Who should you back this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and Memorial Tournament Betting Tips.

Course Analysis

Once again, we arrive at a course where the tournament has been staged since 1976 so there is plenty of data to fill your boots. In saying that, some substantial renovations were made in 2021, including adding an extra 150 yards to play as a 7,533-yard par 72. Most of this distance was added to the par 5s, which should not disadvantage the shorter hitters as much. As always, this is the maximum distance the course can play with several tee options at the discretion of the tournament director.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGdEegxu8e4

Fairways aren’t the most restrictive at 28 yards average width at 300 yards however this does narrow to 24 yards at 325 yards for the longer drivers. Accuracy trumps distance here traditionally where, if you do miss the fairway, you are greeted by tree-lined fairways, bunkers, and most notably severe, thick 4-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough, ryegrass, and fescue.

Greens are not only protected by this rough but are often guarded by several bunkers and water. Measuring as smaller than tour average at 5,000 sq ft on average, they make for imposing targets. Greens are again bentgrass as have been seen at the last few tournaments, so look for recent good putting performances for some indication there. Even the best will inevitably miss the greens and a solid week of driving accuracy, approach play, and scrambling will be paramount to who finds victory come Sunday.

Weather

It is first worth noting some extended historical forecast to the week. In May, there was more than double the normal rainfall for this part of the world, with over 9 inches of rain in a month that typically only gets 4 inches. Rain and thunderstorms are predicted for Wednesday further softening the course. I expect this will add some distance to the course, as well as ensuring that thick rough will be at full strength, whilst making greens that have been firm previously a tad softer in this iteration.

Thunderstorms and cooler weather are predicted to carry on into Thursday morning, and potentially until early afternoon, with heavy rain on the cards. Winds will be at their worst in the afternoon with prevailing winds at 10-14mph and gusts up to 20-25mph.

Friday should see the skies clear and the winds will be fairly moderate, topping out at 8-11mph prevailing and 18-21mph gusts in the afternoon. Saturday and Sunday should see still, sunny conditions remain for the rest of the tournament and better scoring opportunities for all.

I do prefer a Thursday PM/Friday AM in this instance. The heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted on Thursday morning risk delaying play, which not only proves disruptive for players but could see some of the Thursday AM tee-times miss out on what are typically the best scoring conditions with calmer winds in the morning. Depending on the significance of any delays, this could see some afternoon tee-times starting later when winds begin to calm as the evening draws on or even moving to Friday AM to finish their rounds in what should be much calmer conditions.

https://www.pgatour.com/tee-times.html

The heavy rain, if play is allowed, will make the greens softer but will also make the course play even longer. Throw in the risk of muddy balls adding some additional variance and the thick rough being now wet will make any wayward shot a very tough recovery to save par. As always, there is a risk in playing a weather draw. The benefit is that you can end up with a wave of players at a decent advantage to the alternate group, in a game where the smallest of margins do matter.

Related Course Form

In tips this week, prior form here at Muirfield Village Golf Club provides guidance towards the picks alongside Innisbrook Copperhead Course (home of Valspar Championship, where the key metrics to success are driving accuracy, approach, and ATG play) and PGA National (a shorter, but tricky Nicklaus designed course and host of The Honda Classic).

The Memorial Tournament – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Shane Lowry 2pts E/W $26.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Matthew Fitzpatrick 2pts E/W $29.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Chris Kirk 1pt E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Chris Kirk 2pts Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365 or TAB)

Alex Noren 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Alex Noren 2pts Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)

Brendan Steele 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Brendan Steele 1pt Top 20 $6.00 (Bet365)

Adam Long 0.5pt E/W $176.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Adam Long 1pt Top 20 $5.50 (Bet365)

Shane Lowry

We all need to continue to reassess our expectations of Shane Lowry, who is not only having his best year ever but still outperforms some of the much shorter priced glamour names of the elite. For SG: Total (i.e. how much did you beat the field) Lowry ranks 6th over the last 12 months, 2nd for the last 6 months, and 2nd for the last 3 months. His worst finish in this calendar year was a 24th in the Dubai Desert Classic in January.

Included in this fantastic run of form is a 12th at the Valspar and 2nd a The Honda Classic this year (a very unfortunate loss to Kurt Kitayama with a violent downpour on the 18th), both of which provide solid indications here. This stands alongside finishing 6th at this tournament in 2021 where he gained in every metric on the field. I like that last time we saw him at PGA Championship, his final round in tough conditions he was one of only 19 players to shoot under par and he did this by finishing in the top 10 for SG: Approach and top 20 for SG: ATG.

This is the type of test that should suit Lowry, who gains on the tour average in every metric, but approach play and around-the-green proving his biggest strengths. He has historically performed best at gritty type affairs where scoring doesn’t get overly out of hand and being a previous major winner, he has the credentials to handle this type of event.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Another who is having an outstanding year, the current bet boosted odds being offered by Bet365 pushes him into positive expected value where he can be found as short as 20/1 elsewhere.

Fitzpatrick has been ultra-consistent, finishing in the Top 20 in 8 out of his 10 starts this year and 4 of those being 6th or better. Of course, the biggest question many ask is that he is yet to get that elusive “W” on the PGA Tour. Fitzpatrick is a proven winner elsewhere, amassing 8 wins on the DP World Tour and subsidiaries, including the season-ending 2020 DP World Tour Championship final winning $3,000,000 where he also finished 2nd in 2021. Still just 27, the win will come, and it could well be here.

His last performance at the PGA Championship was an impressive 5th when he was on the wrong side of a significant weather disadvantage, marking his best finish in a major, and following 14th at The Masters this year. He finished 7th for both SG: ATG and SG: Putting on those undulating bentgrass greens, as well as having finished 5th for SG: Putting on the bentgrass greens at Wells Fargo Championship in his prior start.

The biggest weakness for Fitzpatrick has long been his lack of distance off the tee. That changed towards the end of last year, when his coach commented they had been making some changes and he had unlocked an additional 20 yards off the tee. Ever since, his 50-round moving average has seen him gain driving distance on the field, including at his last 9 consecutive events. Over the last 6 months, the accurate Fitzpatrick is ranked 11th for SG: OTT and 7th for SG: T2G.

Unlocking that distance could be the last piece to the puzzle, at an event where Fitzy already holds a 3rd in 2020 and his analytical approach should help him navigate this test.

Chris Kirk

Being able to dive down the board and pick up Kirk at this price is a steal. Over the last 3 months, Kirk ranks 5th in this field for SG: T2G (i.e. everything except putting) ahead of the likes of Morikawa, Zalatoris, Schauffele, Rahm, and Cantlay. Extend this out to 6 months, and he still rates out as 8th in this field.

Of promise, he has gained strokes on the field for putting in his last two weeks when 15th at the Charles Schwab Challenge (where he won in 2015) and 5th at the PGA Championship with both coming on bentgrass greens.

This is of course likely a peak, but one we should continue to ride and especially whilst the odds on offer are available. The 7th at the Nicklaus designed PGA National earlier this year bodes well, as does holding a 4th here at Muirfield all be it some time ago. His 26th here last year should also be read in the context of having arrived in far worse form than we find him now, the deeper dive into that performance showing it came after a run of MC-MC-69.

Alex Noren

Having been an incredibly popular pick at the PGA Championship, it feels that Noren is a somewhat forgotten name this week. One missed cut at a major should not change the thesis so significantly on a golfer who since February has finished 12th or better in 4 of 8 strokeplay events since February.

Included in that are a 5th at The Honda Classic (3rd in 2018) and 12th at the Valspar Championship (alongside 21st last year). A 6th at TPC Scottsdale is also not the worst course to find comparisons as well if you wanted to delve deeper, as well as an admirable 13th here last year coming off a run of middling to poor results (49-MC-46-25-21-21-55).

Over the last 6 months, Noren rates out 13th for SG: Approach (his best iron performance since 2018) and 9th for SG: Putting having gained strokes putting 6/6 most recent events. The 11 time DP World Tour winner has massive upside, and provides a lot of value in this range.

Brendan Steele

It was rather pleasing that after making Brendan Steele my first click on market open Monday I was able to watch several other tipsters identify him, including our own expert Sia Nejad.

I do tend to leave my bets towards the 24 hours prior to start, in order to monitor weather and tee-times. In this instance, the price was so absurd it really didn’t matter, and we got lucky that he did secure a Thursday PM tee-time. Unfortunately for many, I believe the 140/1 with 10 places may be long gone as he has been backed into 100/1 on most international markets (Draftkings Sportsbook still have +15000 and a Top 10 at +1000).

Brendan Steele ranks as the 6th best player in this field for SG: T2G, 4th for SG: OTT, and 10th for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. That level of ball-striking is impressive at the best of times, but to then be able to secure that player well into triple figures is ludicrous.

The 9th at the PGA Championship was certainly impressive, where he was 4th in the field for SG: Approach. Combined with some positive signs with the putter and some solid correlated Nicklaus course form at The Honda Classic (33-11-14-14-MC-4-3-MC) and here at Muirfield where he has made his last 7 cuts (20-57-41-52-13-37), it is easy to see why Steele is one of the top value plays from my model this week.

Adam Long

In what is certainly a speculative play, Long popped in my model this week after a sudden and significant jump in his SG: Approach last week.

He managed to turn out his best iron performance since March 2020 which was, coincidentally, at another Nicklaus course when 27th at The Honda Classic. Long played reasonably well here last year too, when finishing 26th. This should again be read in context as he had missed the cut at 6/8 of his performances before that.

Traditionally a strong putter, Long has gained strokes putting in 6/7 of his last tournaments. Combine that with his accuracy off the tee and the sudden spike in approach play, I am happy to risk a small play at very long odds.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

Dutch Open: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive and Golf Betting Tips

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The DP World Tour returns to the Netherlands this week for the Dutch Open and again we find ourselves at a tournament with limited information to go off. Although the Dutch Open (previously KLM Open) has been around for some time, last year’s iteration was the inaugural and only appearance at the Bernadus Golf. That was a low-scoring shootout won by 275/1 shot Kritoffer Broberg, with a wide variety of players contending.

In the last regular DP World Tour event in Belgium at the Soudal Open, our 80/1 tip Callum Shinkwin gave us our 2nd FRL in a row only to fade throughout the weekend to finish 37th. Edoardo Molinari finished 9th for an admirable top 10 but also frustratingly close to the place money. Ryan Fox led for us right up until the final 9 on Sunday, where he eventually lost out by just one shot to finish 2nd and a top 5 place payout at odds of $7.25.

Another 80/1 pick Chase Hanna was our biggest winner of the week, finishing 4th for a top 10 payout at $12.00 and also cashing place money of $21.00 for finishing top 5. He tempts again here having been cut by only 10 points, but just misses out as a notable exception.

Here is everything you need to know ahead of the Dutch Open. This is your weekly golf deep dive.

Course

Bernadus Golf is a mid-range length sitting at 7,445 yards par 72 designed by Kyle Phillips, with the traditional 4 Par 5s and 4 Par 3s split evenly between the front and back 9. All Par 5s are potentially reachable in two by the longest hitters and two Par 4s are potentially driveable by the longest drivers only wind permitting.

The course presents as an almost links style course, with generous fairways giving way to areas of tussock and fescue grass. This should only come into play for the most flagrant of drives, as fairways are wide enough to allow for anything slightly offline. The course is chiefly designed for amateurs, with little punishment off the tee and wind offering the only real defence against ultra-low scoring.

Looking at the limited data available, the only consistent line that can be drawn across the leading pack was that approach play was a positive indication with all of the top 5 finishing in the top 40 for the week and 3 finishing in the top 10 for this category. A real mix of long and short drivers can be seen on the leaderboard in 2021, suggesting we need to look to quality iron play to differentiate our picks and hope one of our golfers gets a hot putter.

The Alfred Dunhill Links provides parallels being another tournament often featuring windy conditions and links golf course. Included in the rotation is another Phillip’s designed Kingsbarns golf course providing further correlation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6H2X2-wdZ8

Weather

As mentioned, wind is the only real defence around this track, and we can expect this to play a part this week. There is no clear wave advantage available, but it is worth noting that wind positive players should receive a bump.

Winds each day will range between 12-16mph with gusts between 22-32mph. Some light rain is expected every morning which should provide soft conditions.

Given the winds, the 25 under seen last year seems unlikely and something more around the 15-20 under mark could prove the winning total.

Suggested Staking and Golf Betting Tips

– Jordan Smith 1pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)

– Victor Perez 0.5pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)

– Victor Perez 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Haotong Li 0.5pt E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)

– Haotong Li 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (TAB)

– Jason Scrivener 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)

– Jason Scrivener 1pt Top 10 $9.00 (TAB or Bet365)

– Ross Fisher 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)

– Ross Fisher 1pt Top 10 $10.00 (TAB)

Jordan Smith

An excellent driver of the golf ball, I expect Jordan Smith to be able to use his prestigious length coupled with accurate driving to place the ball in the right positions and give himself great looks into the multiple scoring opportunities on this course.

Smith has gained substantially on the field for both driving distance and accuracy. Further, he has beaten the field for SG: Approach in 6/9 tournaments this year and has had several spike weeks with the putter which will undoubtedly be needed in this course. Over the last 3 months, he ranks 3rd in this field for SG: T2G, 6th for SG: OTT, and 22nd for SG: Approach.

Form this year is elite, reading 12-9-2-72-2-16-MC-18-21. The only missed cut coming at a very windy and variable Qatar Masters with extremely gusty conditions, he still managed to gain 4 strokes on the field for approach. Other notable wind performances included a 12th and 9th at Abu Dhabi and Dubai, both in elite fields being Rolex Series events and having windy conditions this year.

2nd at Ras Al-Khaimah, 2nd at the MyGolfLife Open, and 16th at the Steyn City Championship all came at tracks that allowed use of plenty of driver off the tee and were low scoring affairs. The Englishman ticks’ multiple boxes here and we should expect him at the pointy end of the leaderboard this week.

Victor Perez

Formerly ranked in the OWGR Top 50 just one year ago, we are again beginning to see some resurgence in the 29-year-old Frenchman’s game which suggest he is very backable at these odds.

Perez has seen a great return from his iron play, and ranks 4th in the field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. Combine this with gaining plenty on the field for driving distance in the last three tournaments and ranking 22nd for SG: OTT, it is clear that his ball striking is in excellent nick.

Of note is his prior DP World Tour victory came at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, a low scoring affair across windy links courses where he shot 22 under to win. A similar performance from the resurgent from Perez could well see him adding to that come Sunday.

Haotong Li

I am back to the well again on Haotong, who again is another showing sparks of life after tumbling from the Top 50 OWGR rankings.

Haotong Li’s two DP World Tour victories have come in low scoring shootouts where he has got hot with the putter, a 22 under at the Volvo China Open and a 23 under at the Dubai Desert Classic in windy conditions backed up by one of the best putting performances I have ever witnessed.

Accuracy off the tee has long been the downfall of Haotong, and he finds a track where this is unlikely to be a defining factor. He does however produce plenty of distance with his drives meaning he can go out and attack this course. We saw similar earlier this year when finishing 3rd at Ras Al-Khaimah, where in interviews he was quoted stating how good the state of his game was and how he feels ready to get back to winning ways very shortly.

That could well be here for a player who enjoys links golf, having previously finished 3rd at The Open in 2017 and a 14th at the 2021 Dunhill Links in his first tournament back from a return home during COVID. Couple that with Dunhill Links finishes of 23rd in 2019 and 6th in 2018, it is easy for him to make a case for him here if he can strike gold with the putter.

Jason Scrivener

Scrivener is a player I always like to have onboard in windy conditions. Scrivener arrives in the Netherlands on a run of 8 consecutive cuts including a 10th at the Zurich Classic when alongside Jason Day.

The windy conditions in Qatar saw him exceed expectations when finishing 27th after a rather horrible run of tournaments and more recently an 18th at the windy Catalunya Championships. A 9th at the aforementioned Ras Al-Khaimah earlier this season also suggest a potential fit at this track.

Having beaten the field for SG: Approach in his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 7, a return to this ball striking and windy conditions suggest a performance at longer odds is not out of the question.

Ross Fisher

Another previous top golfer experiencing a return to form, Fisher has had a solid start to the season. Still very long off the tee, he finds a track here where he can take full advantage with his drive and coupled with his recent iron play could be a force to be reckoned with.

Fisher ranks 3rd for SG: OTT, 34th for SG: Approach, and 6th for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. That is a lot of very positive ball-striking for a player ranked as a far outsider in this fairly weak field.

A run of 18th at the Ras Al-Khaimah Championship, 2nd at the Ras Al-Khaimah Classic, and 6th at the MyGolfLife Open is perhaps his most eye-catching form this season. Having finished 2nd twice at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship amongst several other top 25 finishes there, a previous winner in the Netherlands at the KLM Open, and 3 of his 4 European Tour stroke play victories coming at 18 under or better point to this perhaps being the event where he can add another title to the list.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Charles Schwab Challenge: Your PGA Tour Golf Deep Dive and Betting Tips

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

It must be said that the PGA Championship provided a highly entertaining, exciting, and yet a somewhat bizarre event. As the dust settles on our second major of the year, reflecting on the tournament it does seem strange that Justin Thomas managed to snatch victory from the jaws of nothingness and become a two-time major winner. Not because he didn’t deserve the victory, but simply that the manner of victory was so atypical to what we have come to expect in these flagship events.

The weather played out basically as predicted and the Thursday AM/Friday PM wave enjoyed a substantial advantage from the draw. Any number of names could, and perhaps should, have won the event. Several could have shot even par and won. Sunday presented the calmest weather of the week and, although arguably some of the tougher pin positions were used, the vast majority crumbled under the pressure. At 3:05pm, JT was a massive 8 strokes behind the leaders with just 12 holes to play. He is your PGA Championship winner for 2022. Golf is a wonderful sport.

From a tipping standpoint, it was another profitable week marking 6 of the last 7 weeks in the positive. Cameron Young was well in contention and certainly had his chances to step up and win the tournament, eventually finishing just one shot off the eventual playoff. He returned us a Top 8 place cash of $17 as well as Top 20 at $3.80.

300/1 tip Lucas Herbert once again showed why he must be included whenever wind is a significant factor. After 10 holes on Sunday, Herbert was sitting in 5th and looking a chance to return place money at equivalent odds of $61. Perhaps some nerves came in for the young Australian in his most competitive major showing, as he completely lost his swing from the 11th as he went on a run of three bogeys and a double. Finishing birdie-birdie was a feat that few completed, and he returned Top 30 money at $9.50 as he ended the week in 13^th.

Had you told me at the beginning of the week that Cameron Smith would lead the field for SG: Tee-to-Green, I would have been quietly confident of cashing a winner on him. Instead, the player with arguably the best short game in the world had a cold putter and wound up in 13th. 275/1 pick Ryan Fox impressed with three consecutive rounds of even par 70 to sit 17th, before eventually capitulating in a final round 77. Unfortunately, a new injury emerged for Hideki Matsuyama, and we never saw the best of him. And after showing promise having started the week with an opening round 67 to sit 4th, Matt Kuchar also faded in the final day to finish 34th.

This week the PGA Tour moves just up the road to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The event is a staple on tour, holding invitational status and a boosted purse as a result, and is the longest running event on the PGA Tour held at the same venue. It feels a treat to have so much data to go off after three weeks of new courses. Who should you back this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips.

Course Analysis

Colonial Country Club plays host this week with a short 7,209 par-70 that on average plays closer to the 7,000-yard mark. This is another Perry Maxwell design as we saw last week, when Jordan Spieth was quoted as describing Southern Hills as “Colonial on steroids”.

The course’s defence comes from the tree-lined fairways, with narrow alleyways and thick 3-inch Bermuda rough ready to gobble up any wayward tee shot. Positioning off the tee as several doglegs create difficult angles which could see trees and branches blocking the second shot if on the wrong side of the fairway. The course has averaged in the bottom 10 on tour for both driving distance and driving accuracy.

Approach shots must be accurate into very small greens, with an average of just 5,000 sq ft. The greens do feature some bunkering, but these are not particularly difficult and given the thick rough the around the green game can be somewhat equalized as creativity gives way to simply hacking the ball out. The greens again use bentgrass as we have seen for the past 4 tournaments.

An accurate and well-placed drive, followed by an excellent approach shot, are likely to be good predictors of success around here. A look at prior winners demonstrates this with the likes of Zach Johnson twice, Steve Stricker, Chris Kirk, Kevin Na, and Justin Rose all having enjoyed success here.

Expect a winning score of somewhere in the vicinity of 12-17 under par.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pz3lkG4nMQ

Weather

As is often the case in Texas, wind is likely to play a factor especially in the weekend.

Thursday should see an advantage for those off in the morning, with winds of just 5-7mph and gusts to 12mph. In the afternoon, the forecast is for this to be picking up to 13-16mph prevailing and gusts of 25-30mph. Friday should be very calm, 2-5mph winds and a few gusts up to 12mph mild at best.

Over the weekend, more substantial winds can be expected with Saturday and Sunday seeing winds of 15-20mph and gusts anywhere from 28-34mph.

Although nowhere near as the substantial advantage we saw last week, there is a small gain for the Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times to make the most of the calmer conditions Thursday morning and players who are “wind-positive” will be a benefit in general for those entering the weekend.

https://www.windy.com/32.719/-97.371?32.702,-97.371,13,m:ezGadsR

Related Courses

There is certainly a wealth of data from Colonial Country Club itself to be used here. However, similar shorter course where driving accuracy and approach shots are strong indicators of performance and particularly those often subject to the wind can provide some guidance for us here. Think the Plantation Course at Sea Island GC, Harbour Town Golf Links, Austin Country Club, TPC Southwind and TPC Potomac hosting the Wells Fargo Championship also providing the added benefit of some recent incoming form.

Suggested Staking

– Abraham Ancer 1.5pt E/W $36.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)

– Webb Simpson 1.5pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)

– Harold Varner III 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)

– Harold Varner III 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Kevin Na 1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)

– Kevin Na 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– J.J. Spaun 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)

– J.J. Spaun 2pt Top 20 $4.75 (Bet365)

Abraham Ancer

Abe Ancer likely disappointed many punters at the Mexico Open, as many played a nationality narrative hoping to see him play well in his national open. The simple fact is a shootout on a long track is not the type of tournament where we typically expect him to perform well. Ancer needs a test such as we find here, where he can play to his strengths of accurate driving and approach play.

Such related course form jumps off the page for Ancer. He has never missed a cut in four appearances here, with his two most recent performances resulting in 14th place finishes. The 2020 was perhaps the most impressive, as this was the first tournament back from lockdown and basically every golfer who was able chose to play resulting in an incredibly strong field. Ancer was also a quarterfinalist at this year’s match-play at Austin Country Club, an 18th and 2nd at Harbour Town, a 4th at TPC Potomac, and an 18th, 15th and victory at TPC Southwind tells us the type of tracks where we can expect Ancer to perform.

Outside of the States, an 8th at this year’s Saudi International and a 6th in 2020 is perhaps a little more hidden. The Royal Greens Golf & Country Club provides a very short test that demands accurate driving due to numerous hazards and is almost always very wind exposed being on the coast. It also often boasts an incredibly strong field as appearance fees have attracted some of the top golfers in the world.

Ancer popped out of some pretty average form at the PGA Championship finishing 9th, when in hindsight a final day of 1 under would have been sufficient to see him in the playoff. In fact, he had his best approach week since that 2021 victory at TPC Southwind. That spike in his iron play is eye-catching.

Ancer ended up finishing last week in the top 20 for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting, on a track with similar bentgrass greens here. Combine that with ranking 3rd for the season in driving accuracy and a similar calibre of performance of approach play this week should see him in contention.

Webb Simpson

Having reached a peak of 4th in the world in June 2020, Webb Simpson has been in a tough run of form but another where some sparks of life in his game indicate a return to better days may be on the horizon.

When finishing 20th last week, Simpson gained across the board in every metric on the field including shooting the lowest 3^rd round with a 65. Of note, Simpson had an equipment change with a new set of irons and experienced an immediate improvement in his game. Another week of getting accustomed to them will undoubtedly be beneficial and may provide the change needed.

Typically strong with his irons, his best performance this year came when 8th at the similar and windy Sea Island Golf Course for the RSM Classic. That week he gained over 13 strokes on the field for approach to top the field in that metric, with 5 strokes over a distant 2nd on a track where he also has prior finishes of a 3rd and 2nd

Other related form can be found at Harbour Town with a run of 11-5-16-W-9 between 2017-2021 and a form line of 3-MC-2-12-15 at TPC Southwind. Although his prior best finishes of 3rd and 5th at Colonial happened some time ago, the fact he has performed well here previously must undoubtedly still provide positives. Webb has gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last 5 stroke play events, and a track which suits his game combined with some recent equipment changes may be the recipe for success.

Harold Varner III

HV3 turned up last week with a very consistent, if somewhat unremarkable, performance shooting 71-71-72-72 on a very tough golf course. Again, it was a track that shouldn’t really have suited him as all his best performances of late have come on shorter tracks where wind has been a factor.

Harold Varner III has been in excellent form this year and sits 5th in this field for SG: Total over the last 3 months. Most notable is obviously the win in the aforementioned Saudi International, but complimented by a 6th at the windy Players Championship, 23rd at The Masters, 3rd at RBC Heritage (where he was also 2^nd in 2021) and 4th at the Zurich Classic.

The approach play particularly has been in a great state, gaining on the field in 9 out of 10 of his most recent performances and sitting 6th in this field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. His driving accuracy does come and go but having gained a massive 21% on the field average when finishing 19th at the 2020 iteration of this tournament allays some of those fears. HV3 has looked very close on a number of occasions this year and this could perhaps be his breakthrough week.

Kevin Na

Kevin Na is on a nice run of form arriving here this year. Incoming form of 9th (quarterfinalist at Austin Country Club), 14th at The Masters, 26th at RBC Heritage, 42nd at the long and unsuitable Mexico Open, and 23rd at last week’s PGA Championship is all very solid.

Where that run has come from is built on solid approach play. He has gained strokes on approach in his last 5 tournaments, including leading the field at The Masters in that metric. Given a lack of distance off the tee, Kevin Na is often looking for these short courses where his accuracy off the tee and with iron in hand can come to the fore.

All of his 5 PGA Tour victories have come on similar shorter tracks where the par has been 70 or 71. The 2019 winner at this tournament, he holds extensive experience and impressive performances here. 8/14 appearances here have resulted in a finish of 22nd or better, with 5 of those within the Top 10. Combined with a further 5 Top 10s at RBC Heritage should tell us all we need to know about where Kevin Na brings out his best performances.

J. J. Spaun

Finally, I will wrap up this week’s tips with a familiar name in J.J. Spaun. I tipped Spaun as he secured his maiden victory at the Texas Open at 150/1, so to find him back in Texas with odds still at 125/1 is an appealing price which I am happy to back him at.

He missed the cut last week on the number in what was really a track that is too long for him, losing shots off the tee and finding a cold putter too. He did, however, finish 2nd best for SG: Approach in those who missed the cut and would have been 6th overall in that metric had he carried that through to the weekend.

Spaun has gained on the field for driving accuracy in 18/21 tournaments so far this year and beaten the field for SG: Approach in 10/13 of his most recent tournaments. Of note this season were a 7th at a very windy Bermuda Championship, 16th at the RSM Classic, 16^th at Pebble Beach have all been at shorter tracks where wind has come into play.

That combination of metrics with recent incoming form and prior course form is a combination that is too much to pass by at this figure.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Sports Betting: Best odds Boosts for July 6

brody25@outlook.com 4 years ago

written by brody25@outlook.com

BetMGM

BetMGM is offering an odds boost for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The “Lion’s Boost” for tonight is Any player to score 12+ points in the 1st quarter boosted from +100 to +120.

Recommendation: I do not recommend this boosted bet for the NBA Finals.

Sign up for BetMGM now for a risk free bet up to $600, paid in free bets!

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering boosted odds for the NBA and Soccer (Euro 2020) tonight.

NBA: Suns to Lead at the End of Every Quarter v Bucks boosted from +160 to +190

Soccer (Euro 2020): Italy and Spain Each to Score in First Half boosted from +370 to +500

England and Italy to Make Euro 2020 Final boosted from +120 to +200

Recommendation: I do not recommend any of these odds boosts, although they offer some good value.

Sign Up for FanDuel now to claim you risk free bet up to $1000!

DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering odds boosts for the NBA, MLB, and Golf

NBA: Khris Middleton to score 30+ points boosted from +150 to +170

Phoenix Suns to sweep the Bucks in 2021 NBA Finals boosted from +825 to +975

Chris Paul & Devin Booker each to score 25+ points boosted from +350 to +380

MLB: White Sox & Red Sox both win boosted from +245 to +270

Over 4.5 Runs in 1st 5 innings of both COL/ARI & DET/TEX boosted from +258 to +280

Golf: Both QB’s to hit the fairway in regulation on hole #1 boosted from +190 to +220

Bryson DeChambeau & Aaron Rodgers to birdie or better on Hole 8 boosted from +300 to +330

Recommendation: Although there are some solid odds boosts, I wouldn’t recommend wagering on them.

Sign Up for DraftKings now to get a deposit bonus up to $1000!

William Hill

William Hill is offering boosted odds for the NBA and MLB

NBA:

Bucks Win & Italy Wins in 90 Minutes +750
Alvaro Morata to Score a Goal & Devin Booker to Score Over 30.5 Points +700
Bucks Win Series vs Suns in 6 Games or Less +325
Suns Sweep Series 4-0 vs Bucks +1000
Chirs Paul Over 40.5 Total Points + Assists +360
Jrue Holiday Double-Double & Bucks Win +500
Khris Middleton & Deandre Ayton Each Score Over 25.5 Points +500
Suns Win By 20 or More Points +650
Suns Win NBA Chmapionship & England Wins Euro 2020 +300

MLB:

Yankees Win 3-2 vs Mariners +4500
Gary Sanchez To Hit A Home Run And New York Yankees To Win +350
White Sox, Angels & Yankees All Win +600
Rockies Win By 4 or More Runs vs Diamondbacks +450
Charlie Blackmon To Hit A Home Run And Colorado To Hit A Home Run And Colorado Rockies To Win +750
Mets Win By 4 or More Runs vs Brewers +250
Pete Alonso To Hit A Home Run And New York Mets To Win +325
Astros, Cubs & Tigers All Win +950
Javier Baez To Hit A Home Run And Chicago Cubs To Win +550
Angels Shutout Win vs Red Sox +1300
Pirates 1st Team to Score vs Braves +185
Twins 5-4 Win vs White Sox +3500
Marlins 1st Team to Score vs Dodgers +150
Cardinals Shutout Win vs Giants +1200

Recommendation: The only odds boost I recommend is Pete Alonso To Hit A Home Run And New York Mets To Win +325. The Mets finally have their lineup healthy and the bats are coming around. The Mets have won 3 out of the last 4, and have the best pitcher in baseball, Jacob DeGrom on the bump. Pete Alonso has hit 2 HR in the last 3 games and is facing a struggling pitcher, Brett Anderson, who has a 4.7 ERA and has let up 7 HR’s this season so far. Expect Alonso to come out swinging hard and the Mets to run up the score with their healthy lineup.

Sign up for William Hill now for a risk free bet up to $500!

PointsBet

PointsBet is offering odds boosts for the NBA and MLB

NBA: Devin Booker to Score 30+ Points and Suns to Win boosted from +170 to +190

MLB: Jacob DeGrom to Record 10+ Strikeouts and Mets Win boosted from -110 to +110

Recommendation: I recommend Jacob DeGrom to Record 10+ Strikeouts and Mets Win +110. DeGrom is the best pitcher in baseball by far, with a 7-2 record and 0.95 ERA. DeGrom has struck out 10+ in 3 out of his last 6 performances. The Brewers are ranked 29 out of 30 in batting average, showing that they are more prone to strikeouts than most other teams in the leauge. DeGrom should be able to get near his career mark of 15 strikeouts tonight.

Sign Up for PointsBet now for a $500 match bet!

Odds boosts are being offered across many platforms for tonight. My recommendations are Pete Alonso To Hit A Home Run And New York Mets To Win +325 (William Hill) and Jacob DeGrom to Record 10+ Strikeouts and Mets Win +110 (Points Bet). As always, good luck to those taking advantage of these boosted bets!

Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date on my hot takes!

Be sure to check out Win Daily Sports for more sports betting content!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Isaiah’s PGA DFS Picks for The Rocket Mortgage

labatts2225@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by labatts2225@gmail.com

If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some basics. I only play DraftKings (DK), So those are the salaries I refer to. That being said, My thoughts on the players themselves should be fairly universal across the industry. Strategy in PGA DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game. This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments.

Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. This article is intended to determine which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. Please keep in mind that most of my picks are highly owned players, so you will need to find contrarian plays as well to win a contest similar to the Millionaire Maker. For more on DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan

Detroit Golf Club is a par 72, 7370 yard course designed by Donald Ross. Although tree lined, the fairways are large and easy to hit. The rough is moderate and not very penal. The greens are smaller than average and consist of both POA and Bentgrass. This is only the 3^rd year Detroit has hosted this event, so course history is minimal. There aren’t very many obstacles on this course. I’m not going to emphasize scrambling or around the green (ARG) stats too much because frankly, this will be a “birdie fest”. The golfers we pick will need to be scoring heavily as the past 2 champions have been 23, and 25 under par. So if your players are working on their ARG game, that means they’ve missed the green and are trying to save par, and most likely not contending to begin with.

Narratives

There is chatter going around the PGA DFS industry that this is a “bombers” course. I want to set the record straight. Distance will always be a positive in golf, but it’s not the only factor in winning. Most will have you believe this is a “bombers” course because Bryson DeChambeau won this event in 2020, with Matthew Wolff finishing as a runner up. Both of these players are well documented as hitting the ball very far off the tee (OTT). However, looking deeper into the stats, Bryson did gain 6.7 strokes OTT. Sounds like a lot, but it’s just average for DeChambeau. Wolff only gained 2.7 strokes OTT. I can tell you how they REALLY won it, putting. Strokes Gained (SG) putting for both: Bryson, 7.8; Wolff, 6.1.Adding those numbers in to their other stats, they both had SG: Totals of over 12 strokes, 15 for the champion.

Behind these 2 on the leader board were basically 8 golfers that are known as being much shorter OTT players. In addition to these stats, in the 2019 version of this event, Nate Lashley walked away with top honors after winning a qualifier on the Monday before the event. He wasn’t listed on DraftKings, nor most betting books. Nate Lashley is well known as being one of the shortest drivers on tour.

Bryson Dechambeau

Bryson’s approach (SG: APP) numbers are a little skewed, as are his proximity numbers. He hits the ball so far off the tee, that when he gets close to a green on a par 4, the PGA stat engine often thinks of it as a missed approach shot. This leads to his 2^nd shots recording as ARG, instead of close proximity. The only real way to get a feel for his game is to actually watch him play. He’s kind of an anomaly in that way, one that we’ve never really seen before. All this being said, Bryson is a great golfer, but I don’t think he’s been playing as good as he could be. He has a terrible tendency to pull his drives way far to the right, and his SG: APP, and putting has just not been as good as I’ve seen in the past. I think he’s priced appropriately for his Ora so to speak, but I do NOT think he’s the top golfer in this field. At the current time, with the injuries to Webb Simpson, that title belongs to Patrick Reed in my opinion.

There are 4 BIG events on the horizon for professional golf. The Olympics, The (British) Open Championship, The FedEx playoffs, and the Ryder Cup. There are a LOT of golfers out there with their minds set on some of these much bigger events, and you should too. I want to mention 3 golfers in particular. I spoke in length last week on Si Woo Kim’s status in the Olympics regarding his responsibilities with the Military in his home country of Korea, so I’m not going to get in to that again.

Will Zalatoris

We have 2 other high priced golfers on this PGA DFS slate that have narratives flying around that I think are worth mentioning. Will Zalatoris is still an amateur that has been playing on sponsor exemptions all season. Most may not know this as he’s been an absolute beast. The fact of the matter is that unless he wins, he will not secure his PGA card, nor will he be eligible for the FedEx playoffs. This would be a major blow to what has been a top 20 golfer on tour all year long. That doesn’t include the almost 70 million dollars that would be up for grabs to him if he could just win an event!!!

Webb Simpson

Webb Simpson is getting older, and has had a set back injury to his neck. He simply hasn’t played very much lately. The one time we did see him play was at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. This was a course that Simpson never plays because it really doesn’t fit his particular style of game, and it was his first time playing since his return from that injury. He missed the cut. It is my belief that Webb has the stature to pick and choose the events that he wants to play, and specifically picks out courses that he can win on when they don’t involve a major championship.

Webb Simpson is arguably one of the top 10 players in the world, and currently sits on the outside looking in to make the final team for the United States at the Ryder Cup (which is a major in itself, held on U.S. soil this year, and been aggravatingly won by team Europe lately). A win would get Simpson on the team, and he picked THIS course to do it on. By the way, Webb is also well known for being very short OTT. He finished 8^th here last year.

Key Metrics

I’ve rambled on long enough. I’m going to make this quite simple. I’m looking for golfers with a good all around game, focusing on SG: APP, and SG: Putting. Of course distance is always a plus, but I may be avoiding it in spots to gain ownership leverage on the field regarding the narrative I laid out above. Finally, I want guys that are coming in with solid form. I don’t care about their stats from 3-4 months ago. There is simply too much on the horizon for these golfers, and us PGA DFS players. We need to stay focused on the present to win some cash this week.

My Player Pool Core

Patrick Reed

Webb Simpson

Will Zalatoris

Jason Kokrak

Matthew Wolff

Gary Woodland

Max Homa

Garrick Higgo

More Risk for More Reward

Brendon Todd

Lucas Glover

Maverick McNealy

Alex Noren

Seamus Power

Sub $7000 (You’re Braver Than I Am, Go get that big GPP)

Beau Hossler

Mito Pereira

Henrik Norlander

Satoshi Kodaira

Austin Eckroat

Justin Suh

It’s a good idea to read all the writers articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your PGA DFS lineups.

Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your lineups according to the contests you’re playing.

Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some key factors to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.

Thank You for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or reach out to me on Twitter. Good Luck this weekend.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The U.S. Open: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

We have another major on our hands as this week the PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for The U.S. Open. This is a long 7600 yard Par 71 which will test all facets of a golfer’s game. On a track like this being long with the driver certainly helps, but APP, ARG and PUTT are also quite important. Greens will be hard to hit so do not underestimate the golfer who can keep it in the fairway or the golfer who can get up and down from a tough spot ARG. More on course dynamics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11200) – I don’t love anyone in this elite range, but Rahm feels like the most consistent option. Even if you leave out Rahm’s incredible three round performance at the Memorial, the stats show he’s still been cruising on most SG metrics. Add to that the putter seems to be working its magic.

Collin Morikawa (9500) – Hasn’t done much in the two U.S. Open’s he’s been a part of, but I’m not too concerned with that. He’s the best T2G player in this field and I think that makes up for his lack of length off the tee. Short game is always a risk with Collin so keep that in mind before going all-in.

Viktor Hovland (9200) – Been going back and forth on Hovland this week but the value at this price is undeniable. Hovland doesn’t really have a weakness in any of the metrics I’m looking at other than not being particularly long. I’m willing to take my chances from the fairway at the U.S. Open.

Patrick Cantlay (9100) – I’m always looking for upward trajectory and Cantlay appears to have found his game after a pretty bad stretch. Not many weaknesses in his game other than some recent difficulties at the 200+ proximity so I’m willing to take the value. Before I leave the 9k range, I do want to point out that Rory McIlroy almost made my list. His price and upside considerations warrant some shares in your lineups.

Scottie Scheffler (8500) – Comes with a bit of volatility, and therefore, prefer him in GPP over cash, but his upside is undeniable. He’s been excellent OTT and good on APP. The putter can be a problem at times, but he gains just as much as he tanks in that department.

Louis Oosthuizen (8100) – This guy dials in at majors and dials in at US Opens. His track record in both is stellar and his recent form has also been excellent. Add to that an excellent short game and great with his irons. A great value in spite of being relatively short OTT.

Paul Casey (7900) – Always considered a value play and for good reason. Casey grades out really well in the SG metrics and has great U.S. Open form and great recent form. He will be popular, but I’m likely to play him in both Cash and GPP.

Abraham Ancer (7900) – Another great ball striker who has been contending over the last couple of months. His ARG game and 200+ proximity game have been hurting him lately, but I’m willing to take my chances as everything else is elite. If choosing between Ancer and Casey (a discussion had in Discord yesterday) my preference is Casey.

Jason Kokrak (7600) – One of my favorite values on the board. He’s top 10 OTT and Top 20 on APP. His short game can sometimes give him issues, but at this price I’m happy to take the upside. I should note that Casey, Ancer and Kokrak will all be popular plays this week and if you’re looking for lower owned pivots, Sam Burns and Gary Woodland are volatile, but present the upside I’m looking for in a contrarian play.

Charley Hoffman (7200) – Due to this elite field, Hoffman has been moved to a price that creates a lot of value. The last 24 rounds he’s been excellent OTT and APP and it’s the ARG game that has really hurt him. That certainly may hurt him again this week, but I think he’s worth a few shares to round out your lineups.

Kevin Streelman (7100) – A short hitter who has been extremely consistent as of late. I don’t love the U.S. Open course fit for Streelman and the 200+ proximities may present some issues, but I do think shorter hitters can succeed at Torrey Pines, particularly this time of year where there will be much more run out on the fairways compared to early in the year.

Cameron Young (6800) – A real leap of faith if you want to roster Young, but I’d say that about literally anyone in the 6k range this week. Young was excellent on the Korn Ferry Tour last month with back to back 1^st place finishes. He’s come back to reality so far in June but clearly the upside is there.

Richard Bland (6600) – You won’t find much on the PGA Tour but the recent results on the European Tour are impressive enough to take a shot. He’s finished 3^rd, 1^st and 27^th over his last three. You’re looking for cut makers at this price range and the recent form is showing he’s capable of just that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-10. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your U.S. Open lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS: Isaiah’s Picks for The 2021 U.S. Open

labatts2225@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by labatts2225@gmail.com

This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments. Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. I intend to give my opinion in determining which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. Please keep in mind that most of my picks are highly owned players, so you will need to find contrarian plays as well to win a contest similar to the Millionaire Maker.

For more on PGA DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.

Torrey Pines (South Course), La Jolla (San Diego), CA.

Torrey Pines is a municipal golf course. An annual stop on the PGA Tour for The Farmers Insurance Open, players use both the North and South courses at that late January event. This is where we will start seeing our differences. The 2021 U.S. Open will only be played on the more challenging, South course. This is also a USGA event, guaranteed to see over 7600 yards of narrow fairways, extremely thick and penal rough (being June), lightning fast, firm, POA Annua greens, and winds blowing in from the scenic Pacific coastline.

Looking at course history here will not tell you the entire story. I expect this course to play much more difficult than the Farmers, resembling conditions more typical to a U.S. Open, which is played on a different course every year. There are 156 players in this event with only the top 60 (and ties) playing on the weekend. That last tidbit is extremely important as getting 6 of 6 players through the cut will be a big factor of your lineup returning cash in the PGA DFS contests we’re talking about in this article.

Bryson Dechambeau is your returning champion after shooting a -6 at the 2020 U.S, Open. That tournament was held at Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York. The last time The U.S. Open was played at Torrey Pines was back in 2008. Most golf enthusiasts will remember, a limping Tiger Woods, holding on to a 1 under par to win the prestigious event that year. I expect to see a very similar score this year. Let’s take a look at some key metrics that will help get our golfers on the leader board Sunday.

Key Metrics

Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) One of the most important statistics in PGA DFS, you’re simply not going to win a U.S. Open without SG:APP being a dominant stat in your bag.

Driving Distance: It’s a well known fact that over the last 5 years, Bombers hold a distinctive advantage to finishing on the leader boards at this major. They still need to possess a complete all around game, but being long off the tee gets you a leg up on your competition here.

SG: Around The Green (ARG) The fairways are expected to be narrow, and the rough will be the thickest we’ve seen all season. Getting up and down in 2, or even 3, will be a necessity at a difficult course like this one.

Par 4: 450-500 There are 10 par 4’s at Torrey Pines. 8 of them are north of 450 yards, including a converted par 5, just for this event.

Other metrics to consider: SG:OTT, Fairways gained, Prox: 175-200, Par 3 225+, Par 5’s, GIR, Bogey avoidance, and putting on POA.

My Player Pool Core

Just as a quick reminder, I do not take ownership into consideration when playing cash game contests, or small entry field GPP’s. Therefore, these lists are specific to the PGA DFS players, in my opinion, that will finish well at this tournament. They can be used in larger field tournaments as well, but will most likely need some contrarian players mixed in lineups that contain them.

Jon Rahm $11,200

Collin Morikawa $9500

Xander Schauffele $9300

Tony Finau $8900

Paul Casey $7900

Abraham Ancer $7900

Shane Lowry $7600

Garrick Higgo $7200

Matt Wallace $7100

More Risk for More Reward

Dustin Johnson $10,700

Bryson Dechambeau $10,400

Patrick Reed $9000

Scottie Scheffler $8500

Corey Conners $8200

Sam Burns $7700

Jason Kokrak $7600

Harris English $7300

Max Homa $7300

Charlie Hoffman $7200

Sub $7000 (You’re Braver Than I Am)

Wilco Nienaber $6900

Guido Miggliozzi $6800

Jhonattan Vegas $6800

Jordan L. Smith $6600

Taylor Pendrith $6500

Chan Kim $6100

It’s a good idea to read all the writers articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your PGA DFS lineups.

Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your lineups according to the contests you’re playing.

Thank You for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or reach out to me on Twitter. Good Luck this weekend.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Palmetto Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

This week we have an awkwardly placed PGA Tour tournament on the opposite coast of next week’s U.S. Open major. This leaves us with a Palmetto Championship that is not rich in talent, but make no mistake about it, the DFS payouts remain the same. I’ll be focused on OTT and APP with OTT coming in a little more important than normal (but not quite as important as APP). I’ll also be keying in on second shot proximities of 175 and above among the rest of the APP proximities. Finally, PUTT takes on a bit more importance as the greens will be fast and tricky. Check us out tonight on the PGA Livestream for discussion of the picks below and much more.

Brooks Koepka (11100) – We will talk, at length, about “The Brooks narrative” on the Palmetto Championship PGA Livestream/Podcast. I will be ignoring that narrative for the most part in the hopes of exploiting the huge talent gap. Brooks is number 1 in my model.

Matt Fitzpatrick (10400) – I wouldn’t say Fitz is a “contrarian” play but he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the 10k and above range. His APP numbers have been off, but it wouldn’t shock me if that starts to come around this week and he does check all of the other boxes for this course.

Alex Noren (8900) – Last week’s Win Daily Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned and less than 7k) is all the way up to 8900 this week and is now a staggering 36-9 overall. Last week we were ahead of the curve and this week the industry has caught up as indicated by the price. He’s expensive but the all-around game is there and he’s Number 4 in my model.

Lucas Glover (8600) – He will be popular as his recent play is great and he’s one of the few that has actually played this Palmetto Championship course at Congaree. With that said, his APP numbers have tailed off a bit as of the last 12 rounds so Glover is not a “go all-in” play, but he’s worth a look in some lineups.

Scott Stallings (8000) – Don’t look now but Stallings has made 5 cuts in a row. Does that mean he definitely makes the cut this week at The Palmetto Championship? Nope. It does mean that he’s on a trajectory that is different from most of the 8k and below golfers in this field. The upside may be limited, but the all-around consistency he’s shown over the last 20 rounds in field stronger than this one is intriguing.

Vincent Whaley (7700) – Maintains one of the longest cut streaks on the PGA Tour and the SG metrics are starting to bear that out. Put simply, this guy has been automatic and is consistently finishing among the Top 25. In this field I expect nothing different. Whaley will be a popular play this week so beware of ownership. I should note that I also like Luke List in this range, but I think he is better as a Showdown play than a full tournament play this week.

Ben Martin (7600) – Martin is really making strides this year and is a guy that I expect to emerge in a field like this one. His overall SG metrics are good other than some issues ARG, but he happens to be decent in the sand which is a point of emphasis this week. He’s a suprising 12^th in my model.

Roger Sloan (7000) – There are a lot of places to pivot this week, especially in the low end range, and I think Sloan is a good example of that. He will be low owned and I think he has the upside to make the cut and score some points. The short game can get Sloan in trouble, but I’m more willing to take that type of short game risk on a low priced guy like Sloan. A GPP play only.

Hank Lebioda (6900) – He is quickly becoming one of my sneaky guys as I’ve peppered him into plenty of lineups this year. Hammerin’ Hank has been good OTT and great on APP over the last 24 rounds and he’s been even better over the last 12 rounds. Short game may trip him up but I think he makes up for it with the ball striking. Already clicked a 150 to 1 outright ticket on him because, why not, right?

Robby Shelton (6700) – The 6k range is tough sledding but I think Robby has enough hot streaks to make a difference in your GPP lineups. It’s a risk for sure, but if you need to dip down this low I think it’s got some upside. More on 6k players on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-9. See you in Discord.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Jon Rahm Withdraws from The 2021 Memorial Tournament

Josh Barzal 4 years ago

written by Josh Barzal

When Jon Rahm walked off the 18^th green at The Memorial in 2020, he was informed that he would be docked 2 strokes for having moved a blade of grass before completing one of the greatest chip shots I had ever seen. That penalty, albeit now infamous, would not effect the outcome. Jon Rahm was dominant, and became champion of The 2020 Memorial Tournament.

Recency

Jon Rahm had been struggling of late. A new sponsor (Calloway) and his new equipment had given him multiple poor showings. He also missed a cut, which made industry headlines. Regardless, He got himself back up, and dusted off. Rahm went out on Saturday morning to finish off a 2nd round 65, that included a hole in one on the 16^th hole. Apparently Jon had finally become comfortable with his equipment, and this new Calloway putter. He regrouped quickly, to go out and record a record tying (to Tiger I believe) 64 on Saturday afternoon.

Lightning Strikes Twice

He was walking off the 18th green when he was met by officials once again. They informed him that he had tested positive for Covid 19. Jon Rahm had been deemed close contact with a positively tested person earlier in the week. Previous to the round, Jon had been properly meeting PGA protocols by practicing in quarantine, and testing negative each day of the tournament. He was forced to withdraw from the tournament.

Rahm has just became a father of his first born son, and was also awaiting the arrival of his parents from Spain. He hadn’t seem them since Pre Covid, March of 2020. He was looking to become a back to back champion at The Memorial, and would have won close to $1.7 million dollars.

The worst part. Jon Rahm will now have to self quarantine, and remain in isolation for 14 days. With a newborn son, and parents on U.S. soil, Rahm will not be eligible to return to PGA play until June 15th, which happens to be 2 days before the start of the 3rd major of the season, The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.

Check back with us in The WinDaily Discord chat rooms on more breaking news.

4 years ago 0 comments

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