DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Winner winner! A fantastic result last week at the Dutch Open as Victor Perez provided our 6th winner of the year at juicy $56.00 odds. Having back him each way, we also grabbed a Top 5 place payout at equivalent odds of $14.75 and a Top 10 at $6.50.
We had 3 of our 4 other golfers with Ross Fisher, Jordan Smith, and Haotong Li all either in the lead or just one back at some point during the tournament. Haotong was perhaps the most promising, having shot the low round of the week on Friday posting a 9 under 63 (including being 7 under after his first 9 holes) to lead at the halfway mark before falling away in dramatic fashion over the weekend.
It was a nervous finish for a couple of reasons. The most obvious being that the win required a playoff which took Victor Perez 4 holes to complete with some of the most incredible long putts being drained. But there was also the added factor that his competitor was my countryman Ryan Fox, who I had tipped for the previous 3 weeks creating a serious threat of FOMO.
Fortunately, Victor Perez secured his 2nd DP World Tour win for us and drove our year-to-date ROI to a whopping 27% for my DP World Tour picks.
This week the DP World Tour moves just south of Hamburg, Germany where Tommy Fleetwood appears as the headliner, in what always provides a stern test. The field should prove interesting, with the announcement of the first LIV Golf field providing some intrigue as to whether those named will tee it up here. Who should you bet for the Porsche European Open? This is everything you need to know with your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.
Course Analysis
Green Eagles Golf Courses plays host this week, where it has been hosted here since 2017, of note being that 2020 did not occur due to COVID and 2021 was a truncated 54 holes due to Germany COVID restrictions at the time. The course here has always used the North Course, which can play as an absolute brute as one of the 10 longest golf courses in the world at up to 7,836 yards.
Rather sadly, the tour do not opt to play to the maximum distance here, in what I believe would make an interesting challenge. In fact, the course will play a little shorter this year than the 7,544 yard par 72 seen in previous iterations as the par 3 4th is reduced from 224 yards to 154 yards for a total distance of 7,475 yards.
Another strange quirk is the finishing holes, with 3 of the 5 par 5s coming in the last 4 holes with a run from the 14th of par 3-par 5-par 5-par 3-par 5. The par 5s provide a target for birdies meaning a late challenge is possible. It is worth avoiding the instant temptation to simply play bombers, as of the 5 par 5s only the final 18th is truly reachable in two at 517 yards. The rest of the par 5s measure 594 yards or further which keeps the short hitters in play in what can become a wedge contest from 125 yards and in.
I like looking at SG: OTT here as a measure, as although distance can prove beneficial so does keeping the ball in play on a course that features water hazards on practically every hole. With fairly forgiving fairways, the water can usually be avoided but anything seriously errant may find trouble. Again, large greens greet the players and SG: Approach should be used to provide guidance here especially those who can get it closer with superior wedge-play. Of comparable course, Le Golf National and the Open de France provides one of the better examples. Expect a winning score in the 10-15 under range.
Weather
There seems to be a fairly clear advantage in the forecasts to those Thursday AM/Friday PM. Thursday will be cold and sees winds in the range of 6-9mph with gusts between 11-18mph. This will build throughout the day with some light drizzle and winds reaching a peak around 2pm, with winds of 10-13mph but gusts up to 22-28mph.
Friday should see clam conditions throughout the day with no major disadvantage to those in the afternoon. In fact, the temperatures rising to a milder 21C in the afternoon on Friday afternoon could even prove beneficial for distance.
The weekend provides little challenge with moderate winds and some but not mild gusts. The advantage is not significant enough to recommends playing Thursday AM/Friday PM exclusively if there is someone in the alternate times that you are hot on, but it is worthy of consideration when constructing your lineup and betting tips.
Porsche European Open – Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
- Mikko Korhonen 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Edoardo Molinari 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Connor Syme 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Connor Syme 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)
- Ross Fisher 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Ross Fisher 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)
- Eddie Pepperell 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
- Eddie Pepperell 1pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)
- Frederic Lacroix 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
- Frederic Lacroix 1pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)
Player Profiles
Mikko Korhonen
Having tipped up Korhonen at the Catalunya Championship (where he finished 33rd), he has proceeded to follow that up with finishes of 8th and 14th in his two most recent starts meaning we are back on here.
This is a golfer who finished 7th here last year, but arrived at that tournament off the back of a missed cut compared to the much better form we find him in at this year’s Porsche European Open. In this instance, Korhonen has gained SG: Approach on his last four tournaments and grown his advantage over the field in that category at each of those tournaments indicating he is trending upwards with his iron play.
The highly accurate driver has gained in every metric the last three tournaments and has not finished higher solely due to his putter. He currently sits 9th in this field for SG: T2G in the last 3 months.
Yet, he arrives at a course where he far outperformed expected strokes gained with the flat-stick when finishing 6th for SG: Putting in 2021. It suggests he does have a positive affinity to this surface and, if he can get both components to gel, he should threaten a 3rd DP World Tour victory.
Edoardo Molinari
Having again threatened the lead at stages at last week’s Dutch Open, I remain adamant that another DP World Tour victory is around the corner for Molinari. We find him at higher odds than the previous two tournaments, pushing him into a positive expected value for this week.
Molinari’s ball-striking is what draws us to him again, as this short but accurate iron player arrives as the 5th best player in this field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months, 15th for SG: OTT the last 3 months, and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 6 months.
As always, the putter is what we need from Molinari. He finished 2nd in last year’s tournament which hold promise, as well as having trended towards better putting in his last 4 tournaments being either gaining or very small losses to the field. Having watched his last few appearances closely, the putting has been far from terrible with multiple putts over 10 feet continuing to threaten the hole and miss by mere inches. A few more that drop, and his excellent run of recent results would likely lead to a win.
Connor Syme
We jump into the triple figure odds quite early this week, in a field that outside the top 5 looks very open.
Syme has a record of 22nd and 18th at his two appearances here. Both came after some very ordinary form, the 22nd after a run of two missed cuts and a 32nd and the 18th after a run of another two missed cuts.
The 26 year old Syme has looked much more comfortable on the DP World Tour this year. He was one of the best putters in the field at both the Soudal Open and the Betfred British Masters where he popped for a 3rd. After a two week break, his approach play spiked from having lost strokes on the field for the 4 prior tournaments and having hit the ball better earlier in the year.
During that run, a 27th and 6th at Ras Al-Khaimah came on a similar track that had wide enough fairways to allow for some more aggressive tee-shots and large greens as seen in this week’s tournament.
Ross Fisher
Ross Fisher remains overpriced for a golfer with excellent credentials for this test. Fisher is 6th for SG: T2G in this field, gaining plenty off the tee with his driving distance playing a key part in that performance where he ranks 4th for SG: OTT.
Having gained in SG: Approach in 6/9 tournaments, with a 7th tournament basically a push at field average, there are signs he should enjoy a track that allows a more liberal approach with the driver. Again, we need some putting from the Englishman, but he is at a track where he gained 6 strokes on the field putting here in 2019. He has good correlating form at Le Golf National as well with a run of 34-26-22-7 there.
The last two tournaments he has been at or just below the field average for putting, suggesting that if he can roll a few in on relatively tame greens he could be in contention at triple figure odds.
Eddie Pepperell
Pepperell was backed at the British Masters, where he failed to do much following a difficult first round before scrambling to make the weekend and finish 48th, and again followed up with a jump in performance to pop up for a 14th last week. I am happy to hold that we were a little early timing a return to form for Pepperell and I’m pleased to see he remains at long odds here.
This is a golfer who has finished 3rd at The Players Championship, 6th at the BMW PGA Championship, and 4th at the Irish Open to go with wins at the Qatar Masters and the 2018 British Masters. Jumping up in ball striking last week to finish 21st for SG Approach as well as some confident putting, I am happy to take at long odds where a top 20 appearance seems very possible should the 31 year old continue this return to form.
Frederic Lacroix
Finally, I round up this week’s Porsche European Open tips with an up and comer Freddie Lacroix. In his first year on the main DP World Tour, he held an excellent record on the Challenge Tour in 2021 including a 9th in Germany in September of that year.
Lacroix has gained for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting in his last three appearances, which includes a 21st at the British Masters and a 24th at the Dutch Open, ranking 26th for putting and 29th for approach over the last 30 days in this field. The driver has been where he has lost shots, but that distance can prove useful here on a track that can provide opportunities for those with some extra length off the tee.
As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.
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