Isaiah’s PGA DFS Picks for The Rocket Mortgage

193

If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some basics. I only play DraftKings (DK), So those are the salaries I refer to. That being said, My thoughts on the players themselves should be fairly universal across the industry. Strategy in PGA DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game. This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments.

Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. This article is intended to determine which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. Please keep in mind that most of my picks are highly owned players, so you will need to find contrarian plays as well to win a contest similar to the Millionaire Maker. For more on DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan

Detroit Golf Club is a par 72, 7370 yard course designed by Donald Ross. Although tree lined, the fairways are large and easy to hit. The rough is moderate and not very penal. The greens are smaller than average and consist of both POA and Bentgrass. This is only the 3^rd year Detroit has hosted this event, so course history is minimal. There aren’t very many obstacles on this course. I’m not going to emphasize scrambling or around the green (ARG) stats too much because frankly, this will be a “birdie fest”. The golfers we pick will need to be scoring heavily as the past 2 champions have been 23, and 25 under par. So if your players are working on their ARG game, that means they’ve missed the green and are trying to save par, and most likely not contending to begin with.

Narratives

There is chatter going around the PGA DFS industry that this is a “bombers” course. I want to set the record straight. Distance will always be a positive in golf, but it’s not the only factor in winning. Most will have you believe this is a “bombers” course because Bryson DeChambeau won this event in 2020, with Matthew Wolff finishing as a runner up. Both of these players are well documented as hitting the ball very far off the tee (OTT). However, looking deeper into the stats, Bryson did gain 6.7 strokes OTT. Sounds like a lot, but it’s just average for DeChambeau. Wolff only gained 2.7 strokes OTT. I can tell you how they REALLY won it, putting. Strokes Gained (SG) putting for both: Bryson, 7.8; Wolff, 6.1.Adding those numbers in to their other stats, they both had SG: Totals of over 12 strokes, 15 for the champion.

Behind these 2 on the leader board were basically 8 golfers that are known as being much shorter OTT players. In addition to these stats, in the 2019 version of this event, Nate Lashley walked away with top honors after winning a qualifier on the Monday before the event. He wasn’t listed on DraftKings, nor most betting books. Nate Lashley is well known as being one of the shortest drivers on tour.

Bryson Dechambeau

Bryson’s approach (SG: APP) numbers are a little skewed, as are his proximity numbers. He hits the ball so far off the tee, that when he gets close to a green on a par 4, the PGA stat engine often thinks of it as a missed approach shot. This leads to his 2^nd shots recording as ARG, instead of close proximity. The only real way to get a feel for his game is to actually watch him play. He’s kind of an anomaly in that way, one that we’ve never really seen before. All this being said, Bryson is a great golfer, but I don’t think he’s been playing as good as he could be. He has a terrible tendency to pull his drives way far to the right, and his SG: APP, and putting has just not been as good as I’ve seen in the past. I think he’s priced appropriately for his Ora so to speak, but I do NOT think he’s the top golfer in this field. At the current time, with the injuries to Webb Simpson, that title belongs to Patrick Reed in my opinion.

There are 4 BIG events on the horizon for professional golf. The Olympics, The (British) Open Championship, The FedEx playoffs, and the Ryder Cup. There are a LOT of golfers out there with their minds set on some of these much bigger events, and you should too. I want to mention 3 golfers in particular. I spoke in length last week on Si Woo Kim’s status in the Olympics regarding his responsibilities with the Military in his home country of Korea, so I’m not going to get in to that again.

Will Zalatoris

We have 2 other high priced golfers on this PGA DFS slate that have narratives flying around that I think are worth mentioning. Will Zalatoris is still an amateur that has been playing on sponsor exemptions all season. Most may not know this as he’s been an absolute beast. The fact of the matter is that unless he wins, he will not secure his PGA card, nor will he be eligible for the FedEx playoffs. This would be a major blow to what has been a top 20 golfer on tour all year long. That doesn’t include the almost 70 million dollars that would be up for grabs to him if he could just win an event!!!

Webb Simpson

Webb Simpson is getting older, and has had a set back injury to his neck. He simply hasn’t played very much lately. The one time we did see him play was at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. This was a course that Simpson never plays because it really doesn’t fit his particular style of game, and it was his first time playing since his return from that injury. He missed the cut. It is my belief that Webb has the stature to pick and choose the events that he wants to play, and specifically picks out courses that he can win on when they don’t involve a major championship.

Webb Simpson is arguably one of the top 10 players in the world, and currently sits on the outside looking in to make the final team for the United States at the Ryder Cup (which is a major in itself, held on U.S. soil this year, and been aggravatingly won by team Europe lately). A win would get Simpson on the team, and he picked THIS course to do it on. By the way, Webb is also well known for being very short OTT. He finished 8^th here last year.

Key Metrics

I’ve rambled on long enough. I’m going to make this quite simple. I’m looking for golfers with a good all around game, focusing on SG: APP, and SG: Putting. Of course distance is always a plus, but I may be avoiding it in spots to gain ownership leverage on the field regarding the narrative I laid out above. Finally, I want guys that are coming in with solid form. I don’t care about their stats from 3-4 months ago. There is simply too much on the horizon for these golfers, and us PGA DFS players. We need to stay focused on the present to win some cash this week.

My Player Pool Core

Patrick Reed

Webb Simpson

Will Zalatoris

Jason Kokrak

Matthew Wolff

Gary Woodland

Max Homa

Garrick Higgo

More Risk for More Reward

Brendon Todd

Lucas Glover

Maverick McNealy

Alex Noren

Seamus Power

Sub $7000 (You’re Braver Than I Am, Go get that big GPP)

Beau Hossler

Mito Pereira

Henrik Norlander

Satoshi Kodaira

Austin Eckroat

Justin Suh

It’s a good idea to read all the writers articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your PGA DFS lineups.

Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your lineups according to the contests you’re playing.

Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some key factors to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.

Thank You for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or reach out to me on Twitter. Good Luck this weekend.