Gems

A short MLB slate today with a bigger NBA slate; what a time to be alive. NBA takes the center stage tonight as teams are ramping up their playoff pushes, jockeying for seeding, and trying to stay healthy along the way. A ton of news awaits us, including the Pelicans and Rockets, with more to come. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Stephen Curry ($9,000 FD / $9,700 DK)

The greatest shooter of all time is on the second half of a back-to-back, but that shouldn’t slow down Steph Curry whatsoever. Entering tonight’s NBA slate as the 10th seed in the Western Conference, every game matters for the Warriors, and tonight’s shorthanded Raptors squad is one they can take advantage of. The absence of Kyle Lowry will have massive ramifications on Toronto’s defensive scheme, one that struggles with switching and pick ‘n roll defense – this does not bode well against a Curry/Draymond combination. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last two, Curry is coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances, averaging 34/8/4.5 on 46.5% shooting and 12.5 3PA per game. GPP Play

Trae Young ($8,700 FD / $9,400 DK)

Primary ball handlers versus New Orleans has been a spot for us to target all season long, and there is no reason to differ from the strategy tonight. Over his last five games, Trae Young has averaged 23.6/3/11.2 on 45.1% shooting, with four of five games resulting in 20+ points, and three of five having 12 or more assists. Without John Collins for the next week, Trae will shoulder the offense again yet again tonight versus a New Orleans defense that ranks 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG to the position. GPP + Cash Play

Ja Morant ($6,800 FD / $7,600 DK)

I’d normally shy away from Ja on such a big NBA slate, but the combination of his price point and matchup is too good to pass up on; Minnesota comes into this one with the 26th ranked defense in the league and 27th versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG. GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($10,500 FD / $10,700 DK)
• Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Jrue Holiday ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

Still unknown if he’s going to play tonight, we’d obviously need Mitchell’s availability status before slotting him into our NBA lineups. However, not only will that keep the field away from rostering him, but it will also mean one of the best matchups on the board is untouched. With Zach Lavine nursing injuries, Chicago’s defense ranks 28th in the NBA in their last three games and now faces a Utah Jazz team that is looking to finish as the top seed in the West. Prior to missing last game for personal reasons, Mitchell was on an absolute tear, scoring 20 or more points in every game for the entire month of March while sporting a 34.2% usage rate on a 28.8/4.3/6.1 scoring line in 12 games played. GPP Play

Fred VanVleet ($7,400 FD / $8,200 DK)

In 9 games without Kyle Lowry this season, FVV has a 24.3% usage rate and a 18.9/5.2/6.8 scoring line – nothing pretty, but effective. Given the ownership he will carry on tonight’s NBA slate, you need him in cash games, but can also consider him in GPPs; Golden State plays at the second fastest pace in the league and will look to take advantage of the Raptors thin rotation. Cash Play

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)

If Zo is out yet again for the Pelicans tonight, we can go right back to the well with NAW in our NBA lineups. In 9 starts this season, the young guard is averaging 19.8/5.7/2.7 on 51.1% shooting, including 45.6% from behind the arc. Atlanta’s 23rd ranked defense will be prioritizing Zion and Ingram, if they play, and even if they don’t, the matchup versus Trae Young is favorable enough to solidify his floor. Cash Play

Also Consider:

• CJ McCollum ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Josh Hart ($5,300 FD / $5,800 DK)
• Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300 FD / $5,700 DK)

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($7,700 FD / $7,900 DK)

SF is awfully thin, as per usual, so Jaylen Brown is the highest I’ll go on the pricing grid considering I will be looking at some options further down this list. Nonetheless, the premium play at the position on tonight’s NBA slate has a great matchup versus Houston, who ranks 6th in pace, playing perfectly into his slashing style. Scoring 20 or more points in six of his last seven, JB has averaged 24.4/6.6/2.3 on 46.8% shooting during that span with a 30.5% usage rate. GPP Play

OG Anunoby ($6,600 FD / $6,800 DK)

Despite only carrying a 23.5% usage rate in his last five games, OG has been stepping up in a big way for the Raptors. Playing over 34 MPG in this stretch, he’s posted an efficient 19.2/7.8/3/1.4/1 scoring line, contributing on both ends of the floor, while also nearing 40 FPPG. GPP + Cash Play

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)

While Danilo Gallinari can slot in this spot just fine, as he did yesterday off the bench, I wanted to change it up and write about Bogdan. In his last two games, Bog has taken on a big role for the Hawks in the absence of De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish; sporting a 21.1% usage rate, he has been scoring at will with 25 PPG on 57.1% shooting while taking 17 FGA per game. At this price, there is nobody that will come close to 40 minutes, yet Bog has been playing 41.2 in his last two thank to yesterday’s double overtime game versus San Antonio. Cash + GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Kyle Kuzma ($7,200 FD / $7,200 DK)
• Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,000 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Malik Beasley ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

Has his recent play been up to MVP standards? Absolutely not – but Giannis gets a favorable matchup versus the 29th ranked Portland defense tonight and there is nobody that carries the ceiling he does on a nightly basis. Milwaukee plays at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA, which bodes well for the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum – this one will be high scoring and you definitely want a piece of it. GPP Play

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

Day ending in y – wait to see injury updates before making a move.

Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,600 DK)

A minutes machine for the Knicks this season, we can take advantage of the price discount both sites gave us on Julius Randle tonight. Facing a Dallas Mavericks team that ranks 24th in the NBA is already a good start, but the fact that Dallas also ranks 28th in opponent rebounding bodes well for the versatile Knicks big man who has a 27.8% usage rate on the season while averaging 23.1/10.8/5.8 across 37 MPG. GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Pascal Siakam ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)
• Draymond Green ($6,600 FD / $6,700 DK)
• Isaiah Roby ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800 FD / $10,100 DK)
• Clint Capela ($7,800 FD / $8,100 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Robert Williams ($6,600 FD / $6,700 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems on St. Patrick’s Day, what a time to be alive. Another juicy NBA slate is on tap, with star power that includes the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, and more. There will be a ton of value to open up, so let’s lock that down together in Discord to see which studs we build around. An early look in the day, let’s get to who the candidates are.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)

The slate begins with a certain MVP candidate against the same opponent he faced just a few days ago. Here is my writeup from that game versus LA:

Primary ball handlers versus LA? One of the best players in NBA DFS? Check and check. Luka Doncic comes into this one as one of, if not the player with the highest upside, and there is no chance I’m passing up this spot for him. On a team featuring Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, it was Lonzo Ball that did all the damage to the Clippers less than 24 hours ago, dropping 20/8/5. I’ve been attacking this spot all season long, and with a 31.7% usage rate in two games since returning from the ASG break, where he is averaging 21.5/8.5/12 on 44.4% shooting, my lineups begin with the face of the Mavericks franchise tonight.

Luka dropped 70 DK points that night at 10% ownership. That is all.

Steph Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Curry has a cakewalk of a matchup tonight should John Wall and/or Victor Oladipo had been playing, but with both ruled out of this one, it gets even easier for the greatest shooter in NBA history. Sporting a 32.4% usage rate on the season, I’d expect nothing less than a ceiling game from Steph in this one versus a Rockets team that plays at the fourth fastest pace in the league, with the Warriors coming in as the second fastest, while the Rockets allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from deep, ranking them 23rd in the NBA.

De’Aaron Fox ($9,100 FD / $9,200 DK)

Washington comes into tonight’s tilt ranking first in the NBA in pace of play, and a certain Sacramento point guard does that well – very well, indeed. Sporting a 30.1% usage rate on the season, Fox can score in bunches and dish the rock with the best of ‘em, making him a premier target on both sites tonight. The game environment is elite, and Washington allows nearly 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)

In an elite game environment versus one of the worst defenses in the NBA since the James Harden trade, Malcolm Brogdon will shoulder a heavy workload on both ends of the court tonight. Tasked with guarding one of James Harden or Kyrie Irving on every possession, the former ROY out of UVA has really turned it up since the All-Star break, averaging 26/6/4.7 on 55.8% shooting with a usage rate of 27.7%.

Also Consider:

• Kyle Lowry ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
• Ben Simmons ($7,900 FD / $8,900 DK)

Value Gems:

• Sterling Brown ($4,800 FD / $4,600 DK)
• Reggie Jackson ($4,300 FD / $5,100 DK)
• Tomas Satoransky ($3,900 FD / $3,800 DK)
• Jordan Poole ($3,600 FD / $3,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

Not much can be said about James Harden’s offensive contribution to the Brooklyn Nets since his arrival from Houston. Sporting a 27.2% usage rate in 26 games for the Nets, Harden has averaged a ridiculous 25.1/9/11.3 on 48.6% shooting, including 38.7% from deep and 87.2% at the charity stripe. Carrying the offensive load once again tonight with Kevin Durant sidelined, Harden will play heavy minutes and is always a threat to lead any NBA slate in scoring.

Bradley Beal ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

Remember when everyone was mad about Beal’s production out of the NBA All-Star break and didn’t play him last slate? That was funny. All the leading scorer in the league did was drop a cool 37/6/5 on 68.4% shooting against Milwaukee, and tonight he gets the Sacramento Kings, who rank – wait for it – dead last in defensive rating.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,600 FD / $5,200 DK)

A relatively affordable option on both sites tonight, Donte DiVincenzo won’t wow you with his statistics; he doesn’t score a ton, but won’t rack up 10+ assists, but what he does do is fill a box score. With how thin the Milwaukee Bucks rotation is on a nightly basis, DiVi plays a ton of minutes, meaning his 0.9 FPPM doesn’t scare me – he’s a low usage player, sporting a 17.3% clip since the NBA All-Star break, but he’s averaging a near double-double with 11 PPG to go along with 9.3 RPG.

Caris LeVert ($4,400 FD)

A FanDuel special tonight, Caris LeVert finds himself playing in a game versus the very organization that traded him in the James Harden blockbuster. In a mere two games with the Pacers this season, LeVert is sporting a 25.3% usage rate and is acting as a secondary scorer to the Brogdon/Sabonis pick ‘n roll combination, scoring 15 PPG to go along with 4.5 RPG and 2 APG. Shooting at a 44% clip, LeVert is finding his form and is simply too cheap to not consider rostering yet again tonight on FD.

Also Consider:

• Paul George ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Buddy Hield ($6,500 FD / $6,400 DK)

Value Gems

• Devin Vassell ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK)
• Mason Jones ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

After a slow start last game versus Dallas last time out, Kawhi absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 14 of his 22 points in a game where he only came off the court for a total of eight minutes. Scoring 22 or more points in six straight games, he’s still too cheap on both sites for a player of his magnitude.

Norman Powell ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

Stormin’ Norman’s price has quickly increased after being underpriced for the few games that the Raptors were without the trio of OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet. While Siakam may make his way back into the lineup today, both OG and FVV are unlikely to play in this one versus the worst team in the NBA. In 26 games as a starter this season, Powell has scored in bunches, averaging 22.6 PPG on 52.4% shooting and will draw the lesser coverage of the Pistons’ wings, as Jerami Grant will flank onto Siakam all night long.

Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,300 FD / $6,800 DK)

Outside of Christian Wood, who makes his debut after a ridiculously long layoff, the Rockets have no offensive weapons tonight in the absence of John Wall, Victor Oladipo, and Eric Gordon. In 4 games with the Rockets this season since being called up from the G-League, KPJ is sporting a 26.9% usage rate and averages 18.3/3.5/8.3 on 42% shooting. After yesterday’s game, his price somehow went down – don’t question it, just take advantage.

Rui Hachimura ($5,000 FD / $5,800 DK)

On a tear in his last two, Rui Hachimura is worth noting down at a surprisingly deeper-than-usual SF position. Sporting a lowly 23.2% usage rate in his last two games, this Rui has dropped 25.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG in a whopping 37.5 MPG. Playing heavy minutes for a Wizards wing/frontcourt rotation is huge considering their carousel at the center position, take the sure-fire player who has taken 18 shots per game in his past two while shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from deep against the worst defense in the NBA.

Also Consider:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,300 FD / $7,700 DK)
• KJ Martin ($5,000 FD / $5,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)

Three straight triple-doubles for Giannis and the Bucks are pushing for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Without Joel Embiid guarding the paint tonight, there will be no slowing down Antetokounmpo in this one, who has a 33.2% usage rate and a 31.9/12.4/7.1 scoring line across his last 10 contests.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,400 DK)

The most underappreciated player in the NBA takes on a vulnerable Brooklyn frontcourt tonight and I could not be more excited. Sporting a 24.5% usage rate on the season, Sabonis piles on the minutes for the Pacers, 36.4 per game to be exact, while dropping a season average scoring line of 20.5/11.2/6.3 on 52.6% shooting. He can score in bunches, attack the glass on both ends of the floor, and dish the rock on the outside as much as he wants in this one, which will be fast-paced and feature little defense; Brooklyn ranks 8th in the NBA in pace of play and allows 50.2 points per game in the paint, good for 27th in the league.

Tobias Harris ($7,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

If you’re flirting with the midrange tonight, give Tobias Harris a look. While he will certainly not be in my DK lineup, and most likely not in my FD one, it does not mean we can’t consider the second strongest scoring option on a Philadelphia team without Joel Embiid. Seeing a bump in usage rate, scoring rate, and assist rate, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons have a chance to prove that they can hold onto the 1 seed without their MVP.

Draymond Green ($6,700 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Curry, Draymond has a cake walk of a matchup versus the likes of Christian Wood and Justin Patton. While Houston only allows 24 assists per game, I’m expecting Green to control both the perimeter and the interior in tonight’s tilt since he is not overly outsized. Averaging 8.4 APG on the season, good for 7th in the NBA, a game with the league’s second and fourth fastest squads is one to attack tonight, and it begins with the Curry/Green combination.

Others to Consider:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,000 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Thad Young ($6,600 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 FD / $5,400 DK)

Value Gems

• Nemanja Bjelica ($4,500 FD / $3,700 DK)
• Daniel Theis ($4,400 FD / $4,100 DK)
• Isaiah Stewart ($4,000 FD / $3,900 DK)
• Bobby Portis ($4,000 FD / $4,500 DK)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Jarrett Allen ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)

Also Consider:

• Myles Turner ($6,100 FD / $5,900 DK)
• Jakob Poeltl ($5,600 FD / $5,900 DK)
• Robert Williams ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems

• James Wiseman ($3,800 FD)
• Drew Eubanks ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost