NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 04/02

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A short MLB slate today with a bigger NBA slate; what a time to be alive. NBA takes the center stage tonight as teams are ramping up their playoff pushes, jockeying for seeding, and trying to stay healthy along the way. A ton of news awaits us, including the Pelicans and Rockets, with more to come. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Stephen Curry ($9,000 FD / $9,700 DK)

The greatest shooter of all time is on the second half of a back-to-back, but that shouldn’t slow down Steph Curry whatsoever. Entering tonight’s NBA slate as the 10th seed in the Western Conference, every game matters for the Warriors, and tonight’s shorthanded Raptors squad is one they can take advantage of. The absence of Kyle Lowry will have massive ramifications on Toronto’s defensive scheme, one that struggles with switching and pick ‘n roll defense – this does not bode well against a Curry/Draymond combination. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last two, Curry is coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances, averaging 34/8/4.5 on 46.5% shooting and 12.5 3PA per game. GPP Play

Trae Young ($8,700 FD / $9,400 DK)

Primary ball handlers versus New Orleans has been a spot for us to target all season long, and there is no reason to differ from the strategy tonight. Over his last five games, Trae Young has averaged 23.6/3/11.2 on 45.1% shooting, with four of five games resulting in 20+ points, and three of five having 12 or more assists. Without John Collins for the next week, Trae will shoulder the offense again yet again tonight versus a New Orleans defense that ranks 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG to the position. GPP + Cash Play

Ja Morant ($6,800 FD / $7,600 DK)

I’d normally shy away from Ja on such a big NBA slate, but the combination of his price point and matchup is too good to pass up on; Minnesota comes into this one with the 26th ranked defense in the league and 27th versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG. GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($10,500 FD / $10,700 DK)
• Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Jrue Holiday ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

Still unknown if he’s going to play tonight, we’d obviously need Mitchell’s availability status before slotting him into our NBA lineups. However, not only will that keep the field away from rostering him, but it will also mean one of the best matchups on the board is untouched. With Zach Lavine nursing injuries, Chicago’s defense ranks 28th in the NBA in their last three games and now faces a Utah Jazz team that is looking to finish as the top seed in the West. Prior to missing last game for personal reasons, Mitchell was on an absolute tear, scoring 20 or more points in every game for the entire month of March while sporting a 34.2% usage rate on a 28.8/4.3/6.1 scoring line in 12 games played. GPP Play

Fred VanVleet ($7,400 FD / $8,200 DK)

In 9 games without Kyle Lowry this season, FVV has a 24.3% usage rate and a 18.9/5.2/6.8 scoring line – nothing pretty, but effective. Given the ownership he will carry on tonight’s NBA slate, you need him in cash games, but can also consider him in GPPs; Golden State plays at the second fastest pace in the league and will look to take advantage of the Raptors thin rotation. Cash Play

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)

If Zo is out yet again for the Pelicans tonight, we can go right back to the well with NAW in our NBA lineups. In 9 starts this season, the young guard is averaging 19.8/5.7/2.7 on 51.1% shooting, including 45.6% from behind the arc. Atlanta’s 23rd ranked defense will be prioritizing Zion and Ingram, if they play, and even if they don’t, the matchup versus Trae Young is favorable enough to solidify his floor. Cash Play

Also Consider:

• CJ McCollum ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Josh Hart ($5,300 FD / $5,800 DK)
• Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300 FD / $5,700 DK)

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($7,700 FD / $7,900 DK)

SF is awfully thin, as per usual, so Jaylen Brown is the highest I’ll go on the pricing grid considering I will be looking at some options further down this list. Nonetheless, the premium play at the position on tonight’s NBA slate has a great matchup versus Houston, who ranks 6th in pace, playing perfectly into his slashing style. Scoring 20 or more points in six of his last seven, JB has averaged 24.4/6.6/2.3 on 46.8% shooting during that span with a 30.5% usage rate. GPP Play

OG Anunoby ($6,600 FD / $6,800 DK)

Despite only carrying a 23.5% usage rate in his last five games, OG has been stepping up in a big way for the Raptors. Playing over 34 MPG in this stretch, he’s posted an efficient 19.2/7.8/3/1.4/1 scoring line, contributing on both ends of the floor, while also nearing 40 FPPG. GPP + Cash Play

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)

While Danilo Gallinari can slot in this spot just fine, as he did yesterday off the bench, I wanted to change it up and write about Bogdan. In his last two games, Bog has taken on a big role for the Hawks in the absence of De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish; sporting a 21.1% usage rate, he has been scoring at will with 25 PPG on 57.1% shooting while taking 17 FGA per game. At this price, there is nobody that will come close to 40 minutes, yet Bog has been playing 41.2 in his last two thank to yesterday’s double overtime game versus San Antonio. Cash + GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Kyle Kuzma ($7,200 FD / $7,200 DK)
• Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,000 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Malik Beasley ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

Has his recent play been up to MVP standards? Absolutely not – but Giannis gets a favorable matchup versus the 29th ranked Portland defense tonight and there is nobody that carries the ceiling he does on a nightly basis. Milwaukee plays at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA, which bodes well for the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum – this one will be high scoring and you definitely want a piece of it. GPP Play

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

Day ending in y – wait to see injury updates before making a move.

Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,600 DK)

A minutes machine for the Knicks this season, we can take advantage of the price discount both sites gave us on Julius Randle tonight. Facing a Dallas Mavericks team that ranks 24th in the NBA is already a good start, but the fact that Dallas also ranks 28th in opponent rebounding bodes well for the versatile Knicks big man who has a 27.8% usage rate on the season while averaging 23.1/10.8/5.8 across 37 MPG. GPP Play

Also Consider:

• Pascal Siakam ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)
• Draymond Green ($6,600 FD / $6,700 DK)
• Isaiah Roby ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800 FD / $10,100 DK)
• Clint Capela ($7,800 FD / $8,100 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Robert Williams ($6,600 FD / $6,700 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost