Gems

Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems is a big one – we’re combining both cash and GPP plays in the same article, so look for clarification at the end of each blurb on where to play the individual player. A massive NBA slate after yesterday’s 2-gamer – let’s get to it!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)

Dame Dolla entered the NBA ASG break on a tear and he’ll be looking to continue the Trail Blazers’ surge as he awaits the return of teammates CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic from their respective injuries. Entering this one with a whopping 35% usage rate with McCollum out of the lineup, Dame averages a cool 31.1 PPG on 44.7% shooting in these games, taking 22 shots per game, including 11.9 from behind the arc. While the Suns will be a daunting task, the Blazers will only go as far as Dame can take them in this one. GPP Play.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,600 DK)

Kyrie and Harden will have their hands full tonight versus a disappointing Celtics squad. While they have been wildly underperforming the entire NBA season, the Celtics get the much-awaited return of Marcus Smart tonight, who will prove to be a catalyst on both the offensive and defensive end of the ball. Enter the shifty Irving, who entered the All-Star break with a 30.3% usage rate in his past five games, scoring 25.4 PPG on 44.1% shooting on 22.2 FGA per game. GPP Play.

Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

With how much Kyle Lowry will handle on the offensive end tonight, he will be completely gassed on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, Atlanta runs an offense that involves getting Trae Young into favorable switches on a dive to the basket or a pick ‘n roll to Clint Capela – the issue for the Raptors tonight is that he won’t be switching onto Fred VanVleet, rather, he’ll be on Terence Davis or Bembry. Yikes. Sporting a 32.6% usage rate on the season, the Hawks’ push for the playoffs begins right now, and this is as close to a must-win as it gets. GPP Play.

Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

If you’re looking for a mid-tier option on tonight’s NBA slate that is both safe and has enough upside to warrant consideration, CP3 is your guy. While Oladipo is fine in this spot, a perfect pivot to get over the field is Paul, who has been on a tear this season: on a 22.3% usage rate, CP3 has been the anchor to the Suns’ run to glory this season, averaging 16/4.7/8.8 on 48.6% shooting. In a matchup versus Dame and the Trail Blazers, CP3 gets as favorable of a matchup as it gets on this slate; Portland struggles mightily versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 51 FPPG to the position. Cash + GPP Play.

Shake Milton ($4,200 FD / $5,300 DK)

With both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons missing tonight’s game versus Chicago, Shake Milton will likely slide into the starting 5 and run point for the Sixers tonight. With Tobias Harris getting the largest bump in usage rate, Milton’s rise to is notable, nearing a 31% usage rate in his own right. In his only start this season, Milton dropped a cool 24/1/7 on 61.5% shooting, and gets a favorable matchup versus Chicago tonight, who rank near the bottom of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing combo guards. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

• John Wall ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)

No KD? Yes, James Harden. Simple as that, folks. The salary is top tier, but so is his upside on a large NBA slate that will keep his ownership lower than it should be. While the Celtics do not push the pace to the extent that the Wizards, Warriors, and Timberwolves do, it’s Brooklyn’s 7th-fastest offense in the NBA that will dictate this one. With Boston likely countering with a combination of Robert Williams and Daniel Theis at the ‘5’ with Tatum at the ‘4’ in crunch minutes since Smart is back in the lineup, Harden will have ample opportunity to push the pace in this one, having averaged 29.3/9.7/11 on 51.4% shooting in his last nine games before the break. Cash + GPP Play.

Paul George ($7,800 FD / $8,500 DK)

Will the Warriors keep this one close enough to keep PG13 and Kawhi in the game? I believe so, considering how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers, and they face a pretty good one tonight in Steph Curry. Having the ASG break to recover from multiple injuries, PG13 will be fresh for tonight’s tilt versus the Warriors, who play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. Averaging 23.7/6.1/5.4 on 49.9% shooting with a 28.8% usage rate on the season, a big second half begins tonight for PG and the Clippers. GPP Play.

Victor Oladipo ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

With the Rockets now missing Christian Wood, David Nwaba, and Danuel House to injury, in addition to Boogie Cousins being let go off the roster, the entire offense now falls onto John Wall and Victor Oladipo. In 15 games with Houston, Dipo is sporting a 30.3% usage rate and carries a 19.9/4.9/4.7 scoring line on 38.7% shooting – far from impressive, but the workload will be heavy tonight, and we can eat the ownership in cash. Cash Play.

Also Consider:

• Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,900 DK)

Similarly to what was written for PG13, can the Warriors keep this one close enough to get Kawhi into the 30+ minute range? That’s the primary concern when evaluating PG13 and Kawhi tonight, but there is no denying that they are both mightily underpriced for their respective ceilings. Sporting a 29.8% usage rate on the season, The Klaw can easily drop 30 tonight – but if playing him, you need to stack him with Curry to make it worth your while. GPP Play.

Norman Powell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Toronto remains without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby tonight, meaning Stormin’ Norman gets another start here for the offensively starving Raptors. In 3 games before the NBA ASG break with the same key players missing, Norm averaged 30.3 PPG on 59.6% shooting on a 27.4% usage rate. The price is high for someone that is solely reliant on his scoring ability, but facing a Hawks team that cannot play defense this season without De’Andre Hunter in the lineup, he finds himself as a key component to our cash builds. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

• Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,900 FD / $3,200 DK)
• Danny Green ($4,100 FD / $4,700 DK)
• Matisse Thybulle ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)

He’s in play on every NBA slate, but tonight, there is nobody – with the exception of James Harden – that carries the same ceiling as Giannis, including Luka Doncic. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last seven games before the NBA ASG break, Giannis was on a tear that he’ll look to continue tonight, where he was averaging 33/12.6/5.7 on 55.9% shooting, versus a Knicks team that misses the interior defense of Mitch Robinson tremendously. Cash + GPP Play.

Zion Williamson ($9,000 FD / $9,300 DK)

Being the laughingstock of the NBA ASG is never fun, especially when you’re making your first appearance with the best players in the league. How quickly people forget how good Zion has been this season, though, averaging 25.6 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 3.4 APG on a ridiculous 61.4% shooting. Brandon Ingram will always cut into Zion’s ceiling until the Pelicans can figure out who they real alpha of the team is, but this price entices me versus Minnesota struggling interior defense, who allow a ridiculous 48.7 points in the paint per game and over 58 FPPG to opposing big men. GPP Play.

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $9,400 DK)

Bigs versus Brooklyn? Is Jayson Tatum even considered a big? Tonight, he sure is. Sporting a 30.4% usage rate on the season, Tatum has taken yet another step in his professional career, averaging nearly 25 PPG on 43.7% shooting, taking over 20 shots per game for the Cs. With Brooklyn’s interior defense being the worst in the NBA since the roster overhaul, sky’s the limit for the former Duke Blue Devil tonight. GPP Play.

Tobias Harris ($6,900 FD / $8,100 DK)

Our cash game builds start with Tobias Harris tonight, who will be tasked with shouldering a heavy load on offense for the Sixers in the absence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Having increases in usage rate, assist rate, and scoring rate with these two out of the lineup, Harris averages just above 1.2 FPPM in a 150+ minute sample size – that’s good enough at his price tags on both sites, and we can eat the chalk and move on to the rest of our NBA lineups. Cash Play.

Others to Consider:

• Jae’Sean Tate ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)

Centers

GPP

• Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,400 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,800 FD / $6,500 DK)

Cash

• Kelly Olynyk ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
• Dwight Howard ($3,800 FD / $5,300 DK)

Also Consider:

• Justin Patton ($4,000 FD / $4,900 DK)
• Deandre Ayton ($7,200 FD / $6,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems sees another NBA slate with a ton of star power and value that will flood in throughout the day as player news comes in. A few games are specifically high on my list, so we’ll be targeting those and analyzing why they are the best spots to be in.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Jamal Murray ($8,300 FD / $8,400 DK)

Bubble Jamal Murray has entered the chat. Seeing 36.4 MPG in his last six, Murray is averaging 31.5/6/5 on 57.1% shooting and 51.9% from behind the arc. Not only has his efficiency been off the charts, but he is also taking nearly 20 FGA per game during that span (19.8), including 9/game from deep. Sporting a 30.6% usage rate in his last six, Murray gets a juicy matchup versus a turnover prone Russell Westbrook who loves to push the pace – buckets galore for my fellow Canadian tonight.

Ja Morant ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)

I will continue to play primary ball handlers against the Clippers, especially when they are at such low ownership. Whereby the Clippers have defensive ability in PG13 and Kawhi, there is no denying what primary ball handlers have done to them: Westbrook just dropped 20/9/10, Kyrie dropped 28/4/8, Mitchell dropped 35/4/5, need I go on? Ja Morant is the key to the Memphis offense along with Jonas Valanciunas; through his 29.1% usage rate on the season, Ja is averaging 19.1/3.2/7.9 on 45.6% shooting, and I’m expecting a big game from the sophomore here tonight.

Also Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)
• Derrick Rose ($5,700 FD / $4,600 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,200 DK)

We meet again, my friend. Bradley Beal finds himself in an elite game environment tonight – not only because his Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the 27th ranked defense in the league, but because Denver continues to be on a thin rotation amidst the losses of Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier. In their last three games, Denver has a 24th ranked defensive efficiency rating, something that bodes well for Beal & Co. Leading the NBA in scoring at 32.7 PPG and in usage rate at 35.8%, Beal is the Wizard I want every night, and tonight is no different.

Terrence Ross ($6,200 FD / $6,700 DK)

An interesting target in GPPs today, Terrence Ross is in a game environment that suits his playing style to a tee. Despite coming off the bench for a shorthanded Magic team, Ross has still managed to sport an impressive 28% usage rate while playing 31.5 MPG – sounds like starter statistics to me. In a matchup versus the high-flying Nets, the Magic will need as much offense as they can get to help Vuc out, and Ross is the guy: over the last 5, not only is he sporting a 28% usage rate over 31.5 MPG, but he’s also averaging 21.4 PPG to go along with 5.6 RPG on 46.4% shooting.

Also Consider:

• James Harden ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Paul George ($8,600 FD / $8,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,700 FD / $6,000 DK)

His price is increasing, but as one of the highest owned players on the NBA slate, you need MPJ in cash tonight. However, my interest in him does not stop there – can we really not consider the #3 scoring option in GPPs that is in a high-paced environment versus one of the worst defensive teams in the league just because he is high owned? Absolutely not – MPJ is fully in play for GPPs as well, especially when he’s getting 40 minutes like he did just a few days ago against Portland. The Nuggets need offense, and MPJ is the guy they need to step up with Mal and Joker here tonight.

RJ Barrett ($5,500 FD / $5,500 DK)

With everyone debating Quickley versus DRose tonight with Elfrid Payton listed as doubtful, why not go with Door #3 in RJ Barrett? While we do not know who will get the most run between Bullock, Burks, Rose, and Quickley, we know that RJ Barrett will be counted on to log heavy minutes here tonight for Thibs’ Knicks. While he is inconsistent in his product, the minutes will be there, and his 23.9% usage rate on the season shows why he is averaging 16.2 PPG on 42.5% shooting – he has the talent, and with the level of uncertainty between the other four pieces to replace Payton, I’ll take Barrett.

Also Consider:

• Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $9,300 DK)
• Brandon Ingram ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)

Talk about a good matchup for the NBA’s back-to-back MVP. I don’t have to read Picks & Pivots to know that Brian has already mentioned how bad New Orleans is against guards and in the paint – honestly, they’re just bad at defense in general, logging the second-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. The duo of Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson torched them, Mason Plumlee went for back to back 50 DK point performances, and now they’re up against Giannis? Good luck stopping him tonight – read PnP for more details here.

Zion Williamson ($8,500 FD / $8,600 DK)

He’s on one of these runs where we just can’t ignore him on any NBA slate. Zion has been thriving in the faster, more efficient New Orleans offense as of late, where he has a 29.2% usage rate over the past ten games, averaging 29 PPG across 32.8 MPG on a ridiculous 66.7% shooting – read PnP for more details here.

Others to Consider:

• Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,100 DK)
• Nerlens Noel ($5,400 FD / $4,800 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)

Big Honey is in a prime matchup against the Wizards, as I have already covered in the Murray, Beal, and Porter Jr. blurbs. Rather than go over the game environment again, I’ll just fill you in on Joker’s MVP season so far: averaging 27/10.9/8.4 on 56.2% shooting, 40.8% from deep, playing just under 36 MPG with a 29.3% usage rate. Giddy up!

Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)

One of the most underrated players in the NBA this season, I’m thrilled to see Vuc get the recognition he deserves with an ASG nod. If the Magic want to stay in this one with Brooklyn, just as in every other night, Vuc will need to be the reason why: he’s averaging 23.9/11.7/3.7 on 47.9% shooting, including a whopping 20 FGA/game, including a career-high 6.3 3PA, where he’s shooting 40%. The 28.9% usage rate doesn’t do him justice; Vuc is the Magic, the Magic are Vuc, and he’ll need to bring it versus one of the Beasts of the East.

Also Consider:

• Joel Embiid ($10,400 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,400 FD / $5,700 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Back to a bigger NBA slate today and more Gems to uncover in Fajita Friday’s edition! Some more star power in great spots, a loaded center position, and value already opening up at the time of writing with notable players marked as questionable or doubtful, this one will be good! Let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,100 DK)

My preseason favorite for NBA MVP has been balling out after missing last season and reminding people just how dominant both he and the Warriors can be when Klay Thompson returns next season. On a ridiculous run over his past 11 games, at what point do we call this streak that Curry is on just his norm? He’s rocking a 33% usage rate while averaging 33.6/5.1/5.9 on 55.2% shooting and 47.5% from behind the arc. Orlando just doesn’t have the defensive capability to stop him, and if Vuc keeps this one close for the Magic, Steph can go nuclear.

Trae Young ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

Back-to-back opportunities for the Hawks to face the Celtics, and Trae’s price has not moved. Despite coming off a 40/3/8 performance just a few days ago in the same spot, Young is still not garnering any ownership at the position whatsoever, and I think that is a big mistake. With the Hawks one game back of a playoff spot in the East, they need their best players to rise to the occasion, and it starts and ends with Trae Young tonight.

Also Consider:

• Chris Paul ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Kemba Walker ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

I wrote up Donovan Mitchell in this spot the last time Utah faced LA and I have no issues going back to the well. Coming in severely underowned in their last game versus the Clippers, I’m not sure the field realizes how bad the Clippers are at defending primary ball handlers. Since Conley has departed the lineup dealing with injuries, Mitchell has stepped up in a big way, averaging 27.6/5/6.7 on 42.1% shooting, including 24 or more points in his past seven, and nearly 22 FGA per game on a 33.7% usage rate. As long as Conley remains out of the Utah lineup, fire up Mitchell with confidence on tonight’s NBA slate, as he looks to build on his past game versus one of the best of the West, where he dropped 24/8/7 on 41% shooting.

Norman Powell ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)

Stormin’ Norm should be in line for a significant workload with Kyle Lowry doubtful to play in this one. In 16 starts this season, Powell is averaging 21 PPG and taking on a big scoring role for a small-ball Raptors lineup, including torching other teams in the first quarter. With the T-Wolves playing little-to-no defense, Powell, Siakam, and VanVleet will be able to carry the load to a Raptors victory here tonight, and the man who “only” played 30 minutes yesterday should be the freshest of them all.

Also Consider:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $7,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $7,700 DK)

Although Siakam thrived in this spot earlier in the week, he’ll be in for an even bigger performance with having to cover Lowry’s 24/4/4 scoring line in that one – Siakam took 19 shots in this week’s tilt versus Minnesota, and rightfully so with how well he is playing and how bad their interior defense is, but now he’ll eclipse the 20+ FGA mark and have ample room to collect rebounds and second chance opportunities against the 25th-ranked rebounding team in the NBA. The minutes were heavy last night, and he may be gassed, but this is Nick Nurse and the Raptors – you know Siakam will be good to go for another 40 minutes here tonight.

Brandon Ingram ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)

A way out of left field NBA GPP play that I would only consider on FD because of position scarcity, Brandon Ingram finds himself in a good game environment and can thrive here tonight. While I’m likely going to pair Siakam with one of the players listed below, there’s no denying Ingram’s ability to take over a game and score in bunches. Although Zion is my preferred Pelican on this NBA slate, Ingram’s volume will increase versus a competitive Suns roster, and if he can find his shot early and often, he could be in for a big night.

Also Consider:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)
• Cedi Osman ($4,200 FD / $4,800 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)

He was not a happy camper yesterday in a loss to the shorthanded Raptors, and I fully expect Giannis to take it out on OKC tonight. The back-to-back NBA MVP has been thriving since getting more minutes, to no one’s surprise, and will be counted on yet again here to carry a Bucks team that thought they had strengthened their rotation in the offseason. Sporting a 32.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis is back to doing what we all expected of him, now averaging 28/11.4/5.9 on the season. People will shy away because of a Milwaukee blowout, but when I wrote him up against OKC last time and said they might even steal a win, let alone cover the massive spread, go see how that turned out and rethink a Giannis fade tonight.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)

Would love this play even more if Jaylen Brown sits out with a knee injury, but even if he does play, Tatum is in a great spot versus Atlanta tonight. Whether he is running secondary point guard duties, as I have written up for the past few games, or is attacking John Collins in the paint with Kemba Walker on the floor, Tatum will have ample opportunity to flourish in an underrated game environment; the assist rate has increased, he’s rebounding well, and he proved he can score on this Atlanta defensive scheme last game out. Elite player in an elite spot that will likely get overlooked because of how large the NBA slate is.

Others to Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($8,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
• Chris Boucher ($7,200 FD / $6,300 DK)

Centers

The position is absolutely loaded tonight – the two preferred targets are listed, but don’t hesitate to slide in any of the honorable mentions.

Preferred Targets:

• Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Joel Embiid ($10,300 FD / $10,700 DK)

Also Consider:

• Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 FD / $7,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost