Only four teams and three games remain until we crown a champion for Super Bowl LVII. The Divisional Round this past weekend was colossal, where we witnessed the cream rise to the top of the NFL. This upcoming Sunday will be the last of the multi-game NFL DFS contests for the season, so let’s go out with a bang and destroy the competition.
The player pool is a “kiddie pool” at this point of the season for DFS. If we want to pass pay lines this weekend again, we need to be even less chalky and more creative, so put on your thinking caps boys and girls. As always stay locked on our Discord chat for advice and use the tools in our projection models. Alrighty then…Here we go with our final game-by-game breakdown of 2023! Let’s smash in the Conference Championships!
I do believe ice runs through his veins. Joe Burrow flew into Buffalo in a snowstorm amidst all the Damar Hamlin hype and ripped the Bills’ defense apart limb by limb. What offensive line injuries? The Bengals’ defense… suffocated Josh Allen and Buffalo to only ten points. Winning lineups should have plenty of orange and black in them this weekend.
Facing the 28th DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, Joe Burrow as the third-cheapest option for DFS is a lock across all formats. His price of $6,800 on DraftKings is disrespectful to a quarterback who’s been a top-five player all season. He continues to play with a chip on his shoulder in this heavily weaponized offense, so a stack of Bengals would be a safe bet this Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon have been the most prominent pieces for DFS in Cincinnati and will be heavily owned this weekend, so shake it up a bit. Hayden Hurst has emerged as the clear number three option for Burrow at tight end (5 REC/59YDS/1TD vs. BUF), for just $3,000 on DraftKings set it and forget it.
Now to be sneaky in this spot, pick up Samaje Perine for only $4,500 on DraftKings. Although he plays second fiddle to running back Joe Mixon, he sees well over 40 percent of the snap share. If Perine can find the endzone while in any of your lineups, he can pole vault you up the ladder in your tournament standings. In the Bengals’ regular season game this season with KC, Samaje ran for 106 yards and caught six passes, scoring 24.5 DK points back in Week 13.
Kansas City is back again in the Conference Championship game for their fifth straight season, but it cost them a hefty price of quarterback Patrick Mahomes hobbling off the field with a high ankle sprain. As far as we know he’ll be ready to go on Sunday, but how well Mahomes is going to perform remains to be seen. As the most expensive quarterback on the slate at $7,600 on DraftKings, consider one of the other three this weekend.
Now with Mahomes‘ injury, the Chiefs’ offense will also take a toll. His mobility will be less than 100%, forcing him to be less aggressive to scramble and extend plays. We’ll see plays where the ball is released quickly or handed off to Pacheco or Mckinnon. Kadarius Toney and Travis Kelce will also benefit from these play calls of quick outs and end-arounds. There has been some buzz about a return of CEH and Hardman, but in this game atmosphere, I can’t risk either in my lineups other than Milli-Makers. Speaking of big multi-entry tournaments, if backup quarterback Chad Henne would have to take over for Mahomes at some point in the game, you could be sitting on a lot of green come Sunday night.
San Fran is on a mission, and they keep getting better as they move deeper into the postseason. Iowa State sixth-round pick Brock Purdy has solidified himself into the Forty Niner offense and is one win away from Super Bowl LVII. To get there he’ll need some help from his Pro Bowl-caliber teammates, which could be less than 100 percent healthy.
We’ve all seen the footage, Purdy leans on his tight end George Kittle (5 TDs/21REC since Week 16). But to defeat an Eagles’ 2nd best ranked defense, San Fransisco will need a healthy running game. Christian McCaffrey has been rock solid since the trade from Carolina scoring 12 total touchdowns and leading the team in fantasy production. But he’s come up on the injury report with a calf injury, as well as backup running back Eli Mitchell (Groin).
Rest assured CMC and Mitchell will suit up, but to move the ball against Philly it will have to come through the middle of the field, away from cornerbacks Slay and Bradberry. That’s where Deebo and Kittle butter their biscuits, expect them to be very involved this Sunday.
If you’re playing Showdowns too, I’m all in on Robbie Gould and the Niner defense. I’m visualizing a low-scoring game with plenty of stops in the red zone by the Eagles, resulting in some field goal opportunities for Gould.
Jalen Hurts proved all the haters wrong, showing no signs of regression from a shoulder injury and crushing the Giants 28-0, icing the game in just two quarters in last week’s Divisional Round. He’ll lead the Eagles onto the field this Sunday and look to give the City of Brotherly Love its second Super Bowl visit in seven years It won’t be a walk in the park for Hurts this weekend though, as the number-one-ranked Forty Niner’s defense rolls into town. He should get there for fantasy, as usual, especially with his legs. San Fran will bring the pressure, forcing Hurts out of the pocket while padding his fantasy value.
If you’ve been following the Niners in the playoffs, their secondary has been roasted on the outside as of late. DK Metcalf and Cee Dee Lamb have each scored well over 30 DK Fantasy Points, which gives me the warm and fuzzies for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith this weekend. Heck, I’d even consider Quez Watkins for a potential bomb downfield for only $3,100 on DraftKings.San Fransisco’s 28th in DVOA to opposing receivers, so let’s attack the slate with Philly pass-catchers.
For Showdown purposes only, Jake Elliot is another kicker we want a piece of for tournaments. The Eagles will not hit pay dirt every drive and will have to settle for three against the top defense in the NFL.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Conference Championship Game by Game Breakdown. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!
Welcome back to the Friday Night WinDaily NHL Between the Benches Article! The All-Star break is nearly upon us so make sure to get in on the NHL action before the break next week! Tonight, we have a larger-sized 8-game slate, with lots of interesting matchups to look at! Tonight’s 1/27 NHL slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!
— The Hurricanes are far and away the best option on tonight’s slate as the second place team in the league is facing off against the fifth worst team in the league. The Sharks have been a mess this season. Their offense has been bad and their defense has been worse as they sit 23rd in the league in goals and 29th in the league in goals against. On top of that, the Canes are on a three game winning streak while the Sharks are on a three game losing skid. It should come as no surprise that the Canes are coming into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied totals of the slate at 3.9. Statistically, this game should not be close and Carolina’s top line is a main reason why this game seems so out of reach for the Sharks. Specifically, Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen as both have been lighting it up as of late with Aho registering five goals over his last four games and Teravainen posting a goal and three assists over that same time. It’s clear that not only have the Canes been playing well as of late but they are coming up to one of the best matchups they’ve had this season. I would highly recommend rostering some Canes players in your Daily Fantasy lineups tonight.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Brady Skjei
— Unfortunately, early today the news broke to Toronto fans that their star centre Auston Matthews will be sidelined for at least three weeks with a sprained knee. Despite the set back, the Leafs must continue on for the time being without him and despite his strong impact he brings, the Leafs have had some excellent performances around him as well. The new look first line includes the teams’ top scorer in Mitch Marner alongside John Tavares and Michael Bunting. This is a very complete line that should be able to wreak havoc on the Senator’s defenses tonight. With Matthews out, I expect all three top liners to see significantly more ice time and winger Michael Bunting has seen a promotion to the Leafs top power play unit alongside his new linemates. The Leafs are in a prime position to succeed tonight against their division rivals, the Ottawa Senators and having watched games between the Sens and the Leafs during my whole life, one thing has been repeatedly true… these games have a lot of goals. It’s also important to note that the Leafs are coming into this game with an implied total of 3.9 and their goalie, Matt Murray is expected to make his first start against his old team tonight.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly
Honorable Mention(s): Florida Panthers 1 (Lundell-Barkov-Reinhart), Dallas Stars 1 (Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski)
Best (Goalies to Roster)
Worst (Goalies to Target)
1. Joonas Korpisalo
Honorable Mention(s): James Reimer, Anton Forsberg
Carter Verhaeghe
– Man, this guy is just scoring for fun as of late. His last six games have been amazing to watch. He’s got a six game point streak, two multipoint games and goals in five of his last six games. He’s been absolutely incredible in his role on Florida’s second line and second power play unit. He’s been beginning to see near 20 minutes of ice-time per game and has been rewarding the Panthers each and every game.The Panthers are coming into tonight’s game with an implied total of 3.6 against the Kings so a shot at Verhaeghe would be well worth it.
Honorable Mention(s): Filip Chytil, Michael Rasmussen, Jared McCann, William Nylander
Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)
Center – Sebastian Aho
Winger – Mitchell Marner
Defenseman – Brandon Montour
Goalie – Igor Shesterkin
All Day Slate (7pm Start): Main Slate Putting up Points 3/3
Honorable Mention(s): (7pm Start) Main Slate 2/2 Rapid Fire
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*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Detroit Red Wings (-155) at Montreal Canadiens (+135) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Boston Bruins (-110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) at Washington Capitals (-115) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Philadelphia Flyers (+190) at Minnesota Wild (-225) – 6 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (-195) at Nashville Predators (+165) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Buffalo Sabres (+160) at Winnipeg Jets (-190) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
St. Louis Blues (-155) at Arizona Coyotes (+135) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+320) at Calgary Flames (-390) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Anaheim Ducks (+320) at Colorado Avalanche (-390) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Colorado One – “Nathan MacKinnon ($9,500), Artturi Lehkonen ($5,900), Evan Rodrigues ($5,400)“
You don’t see -390 money lines in the NHL too often, so that sort of speaks for itself. The revised top line at the moment has been sixth in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games. The Avs have been red hot and come in tonight winners of six straight. Colorado couldn’t ask for a better matchup than to face the hapless Ducks in a 6.5 total game. One huge plus with Mikko Rantanen on the second line nowadays is that we can actually afford to use the Avalanche’s top line here. Particularly with Mac’s hefty price tag considered.
When you’re swallowing any $9,500 price tags you might need some salary savings. However, tonight for our contrarian line we get the best of all possible worlds. SATF is my favorite peripheral stat as it encompasses all shot attempts, including missed shots, and blocked shots. It just so happens we have a line in Calgary’s third line that leads all NHL lines in SATF “and is tied for first in goals” over the last ten games. They are also cheap salary-wise being a third line. Oh, and Calgary happens to be a -390 money-line favorite as well, hosting the Blackhawks.
Defenseman
Devon Toews – Colorado Avalanche – $5,000 – He’s not Cale Makar but he’s still pretty good and filling the Makar spot on regular ice and the power play. At $5,000 lock it in as his very best might come out tonight in this smash spot.
Goalie
Alexander Georgiev – Colorado Avalanche – $8,500 – Oh man this is a lot of Colorado but so be it. Chalk choice, but “Georgie” should be set up for one of his easier wins and an all-around solid stat line. The former Ranger has won his last three starts putting up 27.9, 22.1, and 26.3 DraftKings points in the process. His 2.62 GAA/.918 SV% for the season is very respectable.
Chicago +2.5 (-140) – Bet MGM – 1 Unit – I like Calgary for DFS sure and they likely win. However, -390 money line odds on the Flames seem heavy here. Especially considering these teams have been playing like near equals over the last ten games. Furthermore, Chicago beat them 4-3 just two weeks ago. Give me the +2.5 goal head start.
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