It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.
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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)
There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.
It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.
Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.
Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer
He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez
We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman
I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy
Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson
When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson
Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler
Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario
Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick
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Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.
MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)
UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)
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I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.
Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)
UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)
UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)
UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)
UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)
UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)
If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.
Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)
UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)
UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)
UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)
UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)
UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)
I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.
We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!
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The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.
I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)
I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.
Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen
St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)
Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.
Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.
Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.
LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.
Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.
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You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.
It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.
Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.
C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)
1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)
3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)
2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)
SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)
OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)
On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.
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Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.
The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).
Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)
Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)
With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.
Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.
Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?
Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.
We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.
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Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).
Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.
The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.
C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)
3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)
SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)
OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)
Your prime DFS stack choices for the Friday slate.
1.) Boston Red Sox Stack
Gregory Soto is the worst pitcher on this slate and he gets a powerhouse offense in the Boston Red Sox. He has a .390 BAA, eight home runs given up and a 11.51 ERA at home this season. The usual Boston stack suspects are who I want, Betts and Martinez. I don’t mind Devers since Carpenter has been horrible against lefties. I also love Benintendi in this one as I see a nice multi-hit game coming out of him.
2.) Washington Nationals Stack
Brad Keller started off this season very strong and then something clicked and he turned into who he really is, a trash can. On this road this season he holds a 5.08 ERA and a .281 BAA. He also has a sub seven K/9 so a lot of balls are being kept in play. He is equally horrible to both sides, but he does walk lefties more than righties. That gives me more love for Adam Eaton as that ups his potential for stolen bases. Pair him with Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner in this stack.
3.) Minnesota Twins Stack
Surprisingly Adrian Sampson has been really good in Texas and HORRIBLE away from Texas. Away from Texas he holds a 6.47 ERA and a .306 BAA and .604 SLG. Sampson has also been reverse splits this season, so I love Nelson Cruz for a deep ball in this one. I also don’t mind Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and my all time favorite Twins stack tournament play, Max Kepler.
4.) Houston Astros Stack
I’m not sure who the opening pitcher is going to be here, but we do know that Felix Pena is going to follow. Pena has been especially worse against left-handed bats this season (.281 BAA, right home runs given up). I’m especially looking at Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley in this stack. Obviously you can round out this stack with Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.
With both Coors and Miller hosting games that could turn into high-scoring affairs, there might be a lot of cracking cold brews as we watch the numbers turn on the scoreboard and in our DFS lineups.
1.) Los Angeles Dodgers
Antonio Senzatela is no more than a below average pitcher. At Coors this season he holds a 6.21 ERA and has given up five long balls. What doesn’t help his case is that he struggles against lefties. So far this season he has given up a .336 BAA and a .531 SLG. With the likes of Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Alex Verdugo, good luck. The Dodgers are going to have a field day and carry your DFS lineups.
2.) Minnesota Twins
Carson Fulmer has had a horrible start to his young career. So far while at home in his career he holds a 7.81 ERA with a .390 wOBA. He is able to limit his hard contact, but he gives up massive fly ball rates. With the power hitters of Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron and Jorge Polanco, there is no reason why they won’t chase Fulmer back to the minor leagues on your way to winning big in DFS.
3.) San Diego Padres
What a downfall for Michael Wacha. Someone with such promising talent that just lost it all this year. On the road so far this season he holds a 5.21 ERA. So far this season he has been very reverse splits and cannot get a righty out for the life of him. Against righties he has a .338 BAA and a .619 SLG. Hunter Renfroe, Manny Machado and the young phenom in Tatis Jr. should be the staples of your DFS stack here.
4.) Milwaukee Brewers
How bad are the Pirates regretting this Chris Archer Trade? Holllllllllly. Archer has been dreadful this year, but he has been even worse away from Pittsburgh (8.42 ERA). It seems like Archer has been better against lefties, but the underlying numbers show that he gets hit harder, more fly balls and strikes them out less. This makes me love Yelich, Mouse, Grandal and I also don’t mind throwing in Braun for DFS purposes. This is a very sneaky stack for me as I assume everyone will jump all over Coors.
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1.) Texas Rangers
I’ll start off by saying Reynaldo Lopez is a gas can. On the road this season he holds a 7.28 ERA with a .314 BAA. He also has more trouble striking out lefties, which results an the uptick in walks to them. I’m in love with every single lefty here in no particular order. I will prioritize Choo over everyone. The Rangers are far and away my favorite stack.
2.) Minnesota Twins
Jakob Junis is terrible, can we all agree? At home this season he has posted a 5.68 ERA with a .276 BAA. The thing I love about this matchup is that he cannot get lefties out. With a .302 BAA along with a .522 SLG and a 46.3% hard hit rate, he’s going to get shelled. To go with my favorite plays of the day, I LOVE Eddie Rosario here. He is a left-handed slugger who can pop off for a multi home run game at any moment. Pair him up with Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Luis Arraez.
3.) Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox get Trent Thornton coming into town and I think they’re salivating as much as I am. Although Thornton has found success (2.98 ERA) away from Toronto, I think he is going to struggle here. The two main left-handed bats, Andrew Benintendi, is a main target. Thornton has his struggles with left-handed bats, as he is giving up a .262 BAA and a ton of extra base hits. If you can afford it, I would love to employ Benintendi, Martinez and Betts here.
4.) Chicago White Sox
Ariel Jurado is a very confusing pitcher, as he seems to hold his own in Texas and then gets blown up on the road. With the White Sox coming into town, I think that story changes here. Jose Abreu is hands down a Top 3 guy for me on the slate. Against right-handed bats Jurado, has a .330 BAA and a .580 SLG. Eloy Jimenez is also one of my top bats tonight, I think if you don’t want to stack them or need two very strong one-offs, I would take either of them. Abreu > Jimenez.
J.T. Realmuto ($3,300 FD & $4,100 DK):
As a team the Phillies are not striking out as of late. A high contact rate and a low strikeout rate are always solid indicators to me of good things to come. Philadelphia sets to face Jon Duplantier, a rookie that has yet to start an away game. Duplantier allows reverse splits in small sample sizes, as righties are batting .220 with a homer vs. him, compared to a .200 BA allowed to lefties with no home runs. The Phillies scored eight runs last night in a losing effort. Expect a solid showing by Philadelphia’s three, four and five batters, so Realmuto and Hoskins come in as two of my top plays.
Rhys Hoskins ($4,100 FD & $4,100 DK):
As I mentioned, the Phillies are looking solid as of late while remaining at
reasonable salaries. The theme of this season is upside thus far, meaning every time you make your lineup(s) the possibility of higher upside will always trump safety. In the past this was not true, but with so many touts and talented DFS players, scores have been through the roof, especially in GPP tournaments. Hoskins is one of these upside plays for sure, and pairing him with Realmuto means upside city! Hoskins has averaged 16.7 FD points over his past three games and totaled 31.2 FD points last night against Arizona. The Phillies are favored at -125 with a 9.5 under/over.
Marwin Gonzalez ($2,900 FD & $3,700 DK):
The Twins are boom-or-bust plays vs. Mike Leake, who has struggled on the
road all season with a 5.57 road ERA. Leake has poor BvP stats in small sample sizes but has not struggled coming into this game. In fact, he’s been pretty impressive over his last two. But it may not last tonight against the best offensive team in the Majors. Although I do like the Twins tonight, this is the perfect game to hedge. Invest in minimal exposure vs. Mike Leake because he does have stats that could indicate an impressive game, and if that’s the case, you’ll have low ownership. The best aspect of MLB DFS is the ability to hedge.
Miguel Sano ($4,400 FD & $3,400 DK): The second of four Twins that I’ll be writing up today. Sano has been on fire, homering in two of his last four and he is sitting at a reasonable salary considering his massive upside. For the record, I don’t care about L/R splits in this game. Mike Leake actually has the most even L/R splits that I’ve ever seen over a three-year span. I’ll include them below. The Twins are favored by -180 with a 10 under/over.
Shortstop
Trevor Story ($4,600 FD & $5,800 DK):
Story has a .500 BA with two doubles and a triple in eight at-bats against Jose Quintana. Yes, small sample sizes, I know. But impressive nonetheless. In Coors, Story homers tonight. It’s my Dong call of the day. As the Rockies are slight underdogs with a 12 under/over.
Nelson Cruz (3,500 & 4,700)
& Eddie Rosario ($4,100 FD & $4,800 DK):
Like I said before, make sure you have your exposure to Leake. It’s either a
great game for Leake or a great game for the Twins. Meaning hedge, hedge,
hedge. But in your lineups against Leake, Cruz and Rosario MUST be present.
Ian Desmond ($3,500 FD & $4,100 DK): Ian Desmond owns a
.571 BA against Quintana with three doubles. Those doubles turn into homers at Coors. With a 12 under/over, I love Desmond as an affordable play in an expected high-scoring affair.
I believe Perez, Cruz, and Kepler will exceed expectations, resulting in OVERs for all three. Leake is such an interesting play tonight. I do think he
has the potential to pitch very well but if he does not, he should get smashed. Oddly enough, I expect him too to go over 4.5 strikeouts. Last but not least, Encarnacion’s 1.5 runs + RBI is a prop I expect to go under, as Encarnacion is batting .200 against Martin Perez in 14 at-bats. The most important aspect of Monkey Knife Fight success is game flow, remember that!
Catcher – Gary Sanchez vs. Danny Duffy
FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,200
Sanchez enters play on Sunday red hot and should continue to spit fire today. The Yankees’ catcher has a .375 ISO versus left-handed pitchers in 2019. Sanchez will take on Duffy, who has lost over a mile and a half on his fastball this month. Sanchez should take advantage of the loss of velocity and keep crushing southpaws in this one.
Value:
Jason Castro (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,400)
Tony Wolters (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,100)
Willians Astudillo (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $3,800)
First Base – C.J. Cron vs. Dylan Covey
FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $4,900
Cron’s .224 ISO versus right-handed pitching is in play for Sunday. The White Sox’ Dylan Covey gives up plenty of big flies. He has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to right-handed sticks in 2019.
Value:
Matt Beaty (FanDuel: $2,100 DraftKings: $3,200)
Garrett Cooper (DraftKings: $3,400)
Chris Davis (FanDuel: $3,100)
Second Base – Jonathan Schoop vs. Dylan Covey
FanDuel: $3,300 DraftKings: $$4,900
The Twins’ Jonathan Schoop has a .279 ISO and a .362 wOBA versus right-handed pitching in 2019. Look for those numbers to jump up after this meeting with Dylan Covey. The Chicago pitcher has a 5.99 xFIP against right-handed pitching.
Value:
Hanser Alberto (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $3,900)
Starlin Castro (FanDuel: $2,200 DraftKings:$2,700)
Third Base – Nolan Arenado vs. David Hess
FanDuel: $4,800 DraftKings: $5,700
The Rockies’ third baseman checks all the boxes here. He has a .207 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2019. Arenado also has a .263 ISO at home. And finally, he faces the Orioles’ David Hess, who is allowing 4.3 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. Arenado should show up big in this one.
Value:
Brian Anderson (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $3,700)
Rio Ruiz (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,400)
Shortstop –Trevor Story vs. David Hess
FanDuel: $4,600 DraftKings: $5,600
Trevor Story is as close to a lock button play as there is on this slate. The shortstop has raked against right-handed pitching this season with a .281 ISO and a .374 wOBA. And in this one, he gets to face a mediocre right-handed pitcher that throws a fastball more than 50% of the time and he gets to do it in the thin air of Colorado. Why is the fastball part important? Story owns a .300 ISO against that type of pitch in 2019.
Value:
Cole Tucker (FanDuel: $2,100 DraftKings: $2,300)
Miguel Rojas (FanDuel: $2,200 DraftKings: $3,100)
Outfield – Cody Bellinger vs. Chris Archer
FanDuel: $4,900 DraftKings: $5,700
Cody Bellinger is in a great spot here. The Dodgers’ slugger has a .409 ISO and a .529 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With the Pirates’ Archer allowing a 43.1% hard contact rate to lefties, Bellinger should get into a couple here.
Outfield – Eddie Rosario vs. Dylan Covey
FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,400
Eddie Rosario’s .259 ISO and .347 wOBA against righties makes him an excellent play for Sunday. With Dylan Covey being primarily a flyball pitcher, the Twins’ outfielder is in a spot to build on those numbers. He has a .976 OPS versus flyball pitchers in 2019.
Outfield – Max Kepler vs. Dylan Covey
FanDuel: $3,800 Draftkings: $5,200
Another Twins’ bat makes the cut here and for good reason. Kepler has a .296 ISO and a .385 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The leadoff man should be on plenty in this one.
Value:
Raimel Tapia (FanDuel: $3,100)
David Dahl (DraftKings: $4,600)
Garrett Cooper (FanDuel: $2,700 DraftKings: $3,400)
Curtis Granderson (FanDuel: $2,500 DraftKings: $3,400)
Top Stacks
Colorado Rockies:
When you have a game in Coors Field, you always try to cram in Rockies’ bats into your DFS lineups. Today is no different especially with the Orioles’ David Hess on the bump. The Orioles’ right-hander has a 5.93 xFIP, 5.33 SIERA and is allowing 3.38 HR/9 in 2019. Now he will pitch in Colorado ‘s thin air while being a flyball pitcher (56% flyball rate). Things surely are set up for the Rockies’ offense to succeed at home on Sunday.
Minnesota Twins:
No team is hotter than the Twinkies right now. Over their last seven games, they are putting up video game-like numbers. As an offense, they have a .325/.398/.662 slash line with a 1.060 OPS and a .338 ISO. With all of this production, the Twins have scored 60 runs in last week. Look for the Twins to stay hot on Sunday as they face the Chicago White Sox and right-hander Dylan Covey.
The White Sox’s starter has a 5.31 ERA and the peripherals don’t suggest there will be improvement any time soon. Covey owns a 7.39 xFIP and a 7.72 SIERA this season. He is a flyball pitcher (40.6%) that doesn’t strike anyone out (7.5% K%). Covey should be in trouble early and often here, so stack up all the Twins that you can.
New York Yankees:
While it hasn’t been as impressive as the Twins’ last week of production, the Yankees have had a pretty good seven-day stretch. In the last week, the New York offense has a .264 ISO, .387 wOBA and a 144 wRC+. Those numbers should all be in a position to increase on Sunday against the Royals’ Danny Duffy.
Value Stack
Miami Marlins:
While the Marlins’ offense is not a juggernaut, it is cheap and should help you get the top bats from Colorado and Minnesota into your DFS lineups. Also, the Marlins will face Erick Fedde of the Nationals. The right-handed pitcher has a 4.99 xFIP and a 4.78 SIERA this season.
