Hitting and MLB Prop Picks for 6/11: Springing a Leake

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Catcher

J.T. Realmuto ($3,300 FD & $4,100 DK):

As a team the Phillies are not striking out as of late. A high contact rate and a low strikeout rate are always solid indicators to me of good things to come. Philadelphia sets to face Jon Duplantier, a rookie that has yet to start an away game. Duplantier allows reverse splits in small sample sizes, as righties are batting .220 with a homer vs. him, compared to a .200 BA allowed to lefties with no home runs. The Phillies scored eight runs last night in a losing effort. Expect a solid showing by Philadelphia’s three, four and five batters, so Realmuto and Hoskins come in as two of my top plays.

First Base

Rhys Hoskins ($4,100 FD & $4,100 DK):

As I mentioned, the Phillies are looking solid as of late while remaining at
reasonable salaries. The theme of this season is upside thus far, meaning every time you make your lineup(s) the possibility of higher upside will always trump safety. In the past this was not true, but with so many touts and talented DFS players, scores have been through the roof, especially in GPP tournaments. Hoskins is one of these upside plays for sure, and pairing him with Realmuto means upside city! Hoskins has averaged 16.7 FD points over his past three games and totaled 31.2 FD points last night against Arizona. The Phillies are favored at -125 with a 9.5 under/over.

Second Base

Marwin Gonzalez ($2,900 FD & $3,700 DK):

The Twins are boom-or-bust plays vs. Mike Leake, who has struggled on the
road all season with a 5.57 road ERA. Leake has poor BvP stats in small sample sizes but has not struggled coming into this game. In fact, he’s been pretty impressive over his last two. But it may not last tonight against the best offensive team in the Majors. Although I do like the Twins tonight, this is the perfect game to hedge. Invest in minimal exposure vs. Mike Leake because he does have stats that could indicate an impressive game, and if that’s the case, you’ll have low ownership. The best aspect of MLB DFS is the ability to hedge.

Third Base

Miguel Sano ($4,400 FD & $3,400 DK): The second of four Twins that I’ll be writing up today. Sano has been on fire, homering in two of his last four and he is sitting at a reasonable salary considering his massive upside. For the record, I don’t care about L/R splits in this game. Mike Leake actually has the most even L/R splits that I’ve ever seen over a three-year span. I’ll include them below. The Twins are favored by -180 with a 10 under/over.

Shortstop

Trevor Story ($4,600 FD & $5,800 DK):

Story has a .500 BA with two doubles and a triple in eight at-bats against Jose Quintana. Yes, small sample sizes, I know. But impressive nonetheless. In Coors, Story homers tonight. It’s my Dong call of the day. As the Rockies are slight underdogs with a 12 under/over.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz (3,500 & 4,700)
& Eddie Rosario ($4,100 FD & $4,800 DK):

Like I said before, make sure you have your exposure to Leake. It’s either a
great game for Leake or a great game for the Twins. Meaning hedge, hedge,
hedge. But in your lineups against Leake, Cruz and Rosario MUST be present.

Ian Desmond ($3,500 FD & $4,100 DK): Ian Desmond owns a
.571 BA against Quintana with three doubles. Those doubles turn into homers at Coors. With a 12 under/over, I love Desmond as an affordable play in an expected high-scoring affair.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

I believe Perez, Cruz, and Kepler will exceed expectations, resulting in OVERs for all three. Leake is such an interesting play tonight. I do think he
has the potential to pitch very well but if he does not, he should get smashed. Oddly enough, I expect him too to go over 4.5 strikeouts. Last but not least, Encarnacion’s 1.5 runs + RBI is a prop I expect to go under, as Encarnacion is batting .200 against Martin Perez in 14 at-bats. The most important aspect of Monkey Knife Fight success is game flow, remember that!