It’s Thursday and we’re thirsty for some NHL. We have ten games tonight so not overwhelming but it’s what I’d call a nice-sized slate. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning.
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
New York Rangers (-155) at Detroit Red Wings (+135) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Vegas Golden Knights (-170) at Buffalo Sabres (+145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Calgary Flames (+135) at Boston Bruins (-155) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Edmonton Oilers (+135) at Carolina Hurricanes (-155) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Arizona Coyotes (+225) at New York Islanders (-265) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Ottawa Senators (+155) at New Jersey Devils (-180) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
San Jose Sharks (+140) at St. Louis Blues (-165) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Philadelphia Flyers (+110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Nashville Predators (+160) at Colorado Avalanche (-190) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+225) at Los Angeles Kings (-265) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Main lock/early games always tend to be more popular so I’m really pulling from the first six games of the night here. The Devils will be popular as they’re on a roll and later on Colorado will get some ownership, being the champs and all. However, I’ll start off with the Golden Knight’s top line. They are currently tied for third in the NHL with eight goals and strong peripheral stats “4th in the NHL in SATF” to match.
After a hot start, the Sabres have now dropped three straight games while Vegas has coasted to eight straight wins. The Golden Knight’s +20 point differential is second-best in the NHL, only behind the Boston Bruins. As -170 favorites, they are one of the bigger favorites on the slate and the top line is also incredibly affordable. They are priced more like your average second line than a line toward the top of the NHL in both goals scored and all supporting categories.
A super cheap line from the top favorite of the night? A sneaky second line that’s quietly 10th in the NHL in SATF? A late-night hammer galore? We get all of the above and more in the form of the King’s second line. Unfortunately, neither of the three skaters gets any time on Los Angeles’ top power-play unit. They do however share a correlation on the second power-play unit. Overall, the type of line you try to weave into a large field tournament entry and not a 10-man contest.
Defensemen
Dougie Hamilton – New Jersey – $7,000 – If splurging up I think I might not try to get on the Erik Karlsson train and with Rasmus Dahlin in a tough matchup look elsewhere. We have yet to get a Dougie ceiling game and with the Devils rolling this could be a nice spot to buy in.
Ryan Graves – New Jersey – $3,300 – For far less money, you could also take a stab at Hamilton’s Devils teammate. Graves has goals in three of his last six games “he seems to alternate every other game”. That’s not bad scoring prowess for a $3,300 defenseman.
Goalies
Ilya Sorokin – New York Islanders – $8,100 – Stellar 2.20 GAA and winner of five of his last six starts. Tonight the Islanders are tied with the Kings for the title of slate-high favorites at -265. With the total set a bit low at six, it can be assumed most of that total is not projected to go the Coyote’s way.
Igor Shesterkin – New York Rangers – $7,400 – It has not been an ideal start to the season for Shesterkin. However, I think you can trust the talent and just take the discount in tournaments.
Philadelphia/Columbus Blue Jackets – U 6.5 (-110) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – The model over at our friends at Sharp is showing a total of 4.98 providing for a 19.29% edge. Carter Hart was back in practice Wednesday and wait for him to be confirmed in net before placing this bet. On the other side, Joonas Korpisalo’s 5.00 GAA is surely lacking but he has only had one start “against Colorado no less”. I think we can give that man a pass.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
Tuesday brings us a massive 11 game slate in the NHL, and with NBA off for the day, all eyes will be on hockey. 11 games means you don’t have to worry too much about ownership, and there will be plenty of options. Check out our top NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel below. And, don’t forget to use our NHL Projection Model to fill out your lineups. Good luck!
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning host the Oilers tonight, which is usually reason to avoid a goalie spot. However, the Oilers come into Tampa on the back end of a traveling back-to-back. While there is certainly risk to this play, Vasilevskiy should see a ton of shots tonight, and Tampa has a slight advantage overall.
Vitek Vanecek – New Jersey Devils: The Devils host the Flames tonight, who are in a similar situation as the Oilers. The Flames went to OT last night on the road. The Devils should get a jump on the Flames tonight on home ice. Vanecek has been solid so far this year, and he should see a fair amount of shots, with a nice chance at a win.
Ville Husso – Detroit Red Wings: Detroit hosts Montreal tonight in a game that they should be able to win. Husso has been playing very well all year, sporting a 1.69 GAA for the year, and a fantastic 0.86 GAA over his last five starts.
Carter Hart – Philadelphia Flyers: The jury is still out on whether the Flyers will be good with Tortorella at the helm, but Torts certainly did something to help Carter Hart. He has a 1.49 GAA this season, and a 2.02 GAA over his last five. The Flyers host the Blues tonight, who have been struggling mightily. They also just played a game in Boston last night.
High Risk Goalie Pick – Logan Thompson – Vegas Golden Knights: Thompson has been very solid for the Knights this year, and he gets a road matchup with Toronto tonight. The Leafs can score, and the road matchup makes it a bit tougher for Thompson, but the shot volume will be there, so we could be talking save bonus on DraftKings.
Others to Consider: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)., Scott Wedgewood (DAL), Martin Jones (SEA)
These NHL DFS lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play – Brayden Point/Steven Stamkos/Nikita Kucherov/Vladislav Namestnikov/Victor Hedman: The Lightning will be hosting the Oilers tonight, who, as mentioned above, are on a traveling back to back. Additionally, the Oilers have the 29th ranked penalty killing unit, putting this power play squarely in play tonight. The top two lines for Tampa are in fantastic spots tonight, so feel free to mix and match with the top six here.
Vancouver Canucks Power Play – Bo Horvat/Elias Pettersson/JT Miller/Andrei Kuzmenko/Quinn Hughes: The Canucks head to Ottawa tonight to face the Senators, which makes for a good matchup for them. Your primary focus here should be the trio of Pettersson/Kuzmenko/Hughes, but mixing and matching can work too.
These are NHL DFS plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Buffalo Sabres Power Play – Tage Thompson/Jeff Skinner/Alex Tuch/Jack Quinn/Rasmus Dahlin: The Sabres have a great power play matchup tonight against the lowly Coyotes. Expect a bunch of scoring from the Sabres tonight, which is why the power play is the way to stack it. Doing so gives you access to multiple lines.
New York Rangers 2 – Vincent Trocheck/Jimmy Vesey/Alexis Lafreniere: The Rangers moved Panarin to the top line, so this becomes a lot more risky. If, however, Panarin comes back to play on this line, it becomes a top play, as the Rangers host the Islanders tonight. Even strength line matching suggests that this line should see a whole lot of opportunity tonight.
Seattle Kraken 1 – Alex Wennberg/Oliver Bjorkstrand/Andre Burakovsky/Justin Schultz: Based on the line matching tendencies, this top line should hard match Nashville’s top line, putting them in a very nice looking spot. They should see a bunch of chances tonight, and they make for a real nice late game hammer.
Philadelphia Flyers Power Play – Kevin Hayes/Travis Konecny/Owen Tippett/Scott Laughton/Tony DeAngelo: The Flyers’ power play unit will be up against the 28th ranked St. Louis penalty kill. While the Flyers’ power play is middle of the road, they are in a very good spot.
NHL DFS Honorable Mentions: NJDPP, DET1, EDMPP, DALPP, OTT2, TOR2, VGK1, NYRPP, ARIPP
Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on DraftKings. Be sure to stack!
Center: Vladislav Namestnikov ($2600) – Tampa Bay Lightning
Wing: Ilya Mikheyev ($3500) – Vancouver Canucks
Defense: Justin Schultz ($3100) – Seattle Kraken
Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on FanDuel. Be sure to stack!
Center: Scott Laughton ($4500) – Philadelphia Flyers
Wing: JJ Peterka ($4400) – Buffalo Sabres
Defense: Esa Lindell ($3900) – Dallas Stars
Consider these NHL DFS plays for your cash lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Cash lineups do not need to be stacked, and it is recommended to play no more than two players from a given team.
Center: Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks
Wing: Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
Defense: Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo Sabres
Goalie: Eric Comrie – Buffalo Sabres
In this section, we will highlight some NHL player props that we like for the upcoming NHL slate.
Mark Stone (VGK): over 2.5 shots on goal (+100 on DK Sportsbook)
Steven Stamkos (TBL): over 3.5 shots on goal (+100 on DK Sportsbook)
Alex Tuch (BUF): any time goal scorer (+155 on DK Sportsbook)
Elias Pettersson (VAN): any time goal scorer (+150 on DK Sportsbook)
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
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Welcome to the Week 9 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
What a weird weekend Week 9 was. The New York Jets beat up on the intra-state rival Buffalo Bills, the demise of Aaron Rodgers continued, and the Lamar Jackson we’ve known to love may be making a comeback.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
After putting in arguably the worst game of his career in Week 8, Davante Adams had a huge comeback in Week 9. He led all wide receivers this week with 17 targets and was able to catch 10 of them for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. The 17 targets were the most he’s had since Week 1 when he also had 17. Up next for Adams and the Raiders will be a matchup against Jeff Saturday and the Indianapolis Colts.
Listen, did you know the Vikings are 7-1? A lot of that has had to do with the stellar play of Justin Jefferson. For the third time this season, Jefferson was targeted 13 times. He made the most of those 13 targets as he finished with 7 catches, 115 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. This was the fifth time this season that Jefferson surpassed the century mark. Next week will be a tough draw for him as the Vikings will head to Buffalo to play the Bills.
This wasn’t a good weekend for running backs and targets. Not a single running back was targeted more than 9 times and none had more than 58 yards receiving. We’ll focus on Austin Ekeler here as he led the way with 9 targets. While he was able to catch 7 of them, he only went for 24 receiving yards. He was however able to convert one of them into a touchdown.
Outside of Travis Kelce, no tight end was targeted in double digits this weekend. Kelce was tied with Davante Adams this weekend for the lead in targets with 17. The 17 targets that Kelce had this weekend were by far the most he’s had this season and also the most he’s ever had in his career. He was able to catch 10 of them for 106 yards, surpassing the 100-yard mark for the third time this season. With all that being said, he’s now gone 3 consecutive games without finding the end zone. He’ll look to change that this coming weekend in a matchup vs. the Jaguars.
The combo of PJ Walker and Baker Mayfield combined to throw the ball 30 times this weekend. They relied heavily on their backs as nearly a third of all their passes went to them. Raheem Blacksheer, D’Onta Foreman, Spencer Brown, and Giovanni Ricci combined for 11 targets on Sunday. We’ll look to see if that distribution continues on Thursday night as the Panthers take on the Falcons.
If you can figure out the methodology behind who Jalen Hurts throws to on a given week, please pass the info on. This week it was his tight ends that saw the bulk of the receiving load. Of Hurts’ 26 passing this weekend, more than 40% of them went to his tight ends. Dallas Goedert led the team in targets this weekend with 9. The 8-0 Eagles can do no wrong at this point.
The Tua/Hill combo may be the most fun thing to watch this season. Nearly 65% of Tua’s 29 passes this weekend went to his wide receivers, with the bulk of those going to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Targets and those 2 seem to be as safe as there is in the NFL right now.
With James Robinson shipped off to the Jets, we’re starting to see what Travis Etienne can do. Over the last 4 weeks, we’ve seen his carries go from 10 to 14 to 24 to a season-high of 28. He’s also now rushed for over 100 yards in 3 consecutive weeks and has also found the end zone in all 3 of those games. He was the chalk running back this weekend and he did not disappoint! He’ll have his hands full in Week 10 against the Chiefs.
Dameon Pierce, take a bow! The rookie running back for the Texans had a career-high 27 carries this weekend. He was able to rush for a career-high 139 as well. The only thing he didn’t do right was find the end zone. The rookie has been a big part of this offense this season and that should continue in a matchup against the surprisingly solid New York Giants in Week 10.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
Tennessee ended up running the fewest amount of plays this weekend at 42. 70% of those plays however were runs. Between Derrick Henry and Malik Willis, the Titans ran the ball 29 times this weekend compared to just 13 pass plays. One thing we do know is that once Ryan Tannehill is back, that will like shift just a bit.
On the polar opposite end of the spectrum was the Kansas City Chiefs. They not only ran the most plays at 81, but they also threw the ball nearly 80% of the time. Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 68 times! That was a season-high by a wide margin and for the second consecutive week, Mahomes threw for over 400 yards. What a stretch that Mahomes is currently in!
Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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