NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 9 – Win Daily Sports

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Welcome to the Week 9 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

What a weird weekend Week 9 was.  The New York Jets beat up on the intra-state rival Buffalo Bills, the demise of Aaron Rodgers continued, and the Lamar Jackson we’ve known to love may be making a comeback. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

After putting in arguably the worst game of his career in Week 8, Davante Adams had a huge comeback in Week 9.  He led all wide receivers this week with 17 targets and was able to catch 10 of them for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The 17 targets were the most he’s had since Week 1 when he also had 17.  Up next for Adams and the Raiders will be a matchup against Jeff Saturday and the Indianapolis Colts. 

Listen, did you know the Vikings are 7-1?  A lot of that has had to do with the stellar play of Justin Jefferson.  For the third time this season, Jefferson was targeted 13 times.  He made the most of those 13 targets as he finished with 7 catches, 115 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown.  This was the fifth time this season that Jefferson surpassed the century mark.  Next week will be a tough draw for him as the Vikings will head to Buffalo to play the Bills.    

Running Back Targets

This wasn’t a good weekend for running backs and targets.  Not a single running back was targeted more than 9 times and none had more than 58 yards receiving.  We’ll focus on Austin Ekeler here as he led the way with 9 targets.  While he was able to catch 7 of them, he only went for 24 receiving yards.  He was however able to convert one of them into a touchdown. 

Tight End Targets

Outside of Travis Kelce, no tight end was targeted in double digits this weekend.  Kelce was tied with Davante Adams this weekend for the lead in targets with 17.  The 17 targets that Kelce had this weekend were by far the most he’s had this season and also the most he’s ever had in his career.  He was able to catch 10 of them for 106 yards, surpassing the 100-yard mark for the third time this season.  With all that being said, he’s now gone 3 consecutive games without finding the end zone.  He’ll look to change that this coming weekend in a matchup vs. the Jaguars. 

Quarterback Target Share

The combo of PJ Walker and Baker Mayfield combined to throw the ball 30 times this weekend.  They relied heavily on their backs as nearly a third of all their passes went to them.  Raheem Blacksheer, D’Onta Foreman, Spencer Brown, and Giovanni Ricci combined for 11 targets on Sunday.  We’ll look to see if that distribution continues on Thursday night as the Panthers take on the Falcons. 

If you can figure out the methodology behind who Jalen Hurts throws to on a given week, please pass the info on.  This week it was his tight ends that saw the bulk of the receiving load.  Of Hurts’ 26 passing this weekend, more than 40% of them went to his tight ends.  Dallas Goedert led the team in targets this weekend with 9.  The 8-0 Eagles can do no wrong at this point. 

The Tua/Hill combo may be the most fun thing to watch this season.  Nearly 65% of Tua’s 29 passes this weekend went to his wide receivers, with the bulk of those going to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  Targets and those 2 seem to be as safe as there is in the NFL right now. 

Running Back Touches

With James Robinson shipped off to the Jets, we’re starting to see what Travis Etienne can do.  Over the last 4 weeks, we’ve seen his carries go from 10 to 14 to 24 to a season-high of 28.  He’s also now rushed for over 100 yards in 3 consecutive weeks and has also found the end zone in all 3 of those games.  He was the chalk running back this weekend and he did not disappoint!  He’ll have his hands full in Week 10 against the Chiefs. 

Dameon Pierce, take a bow!  The rookie running back for the Texans had a career-high 27 carries this weekend.  He was able to rush for a career-high 139 as well.  The only thing he didn’t do right was find the end zone.  The rookie has been a big part of this offense this season and that should continue in a matchup against the surprisingly solid New York Giants in Week 10.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Tennessee ended up running the fewest amount of plays this weekend at 42.  70% of those plays however were runs.  Between Derrick Henry and Malik Willis, the Titans ran the ball 29 times this weekend compared to just 13 pass plays.  One thing we do know is that once Ryan Tannehill is back, that will like shift just a bit.

On the polar opposite end of the spectrum was the Kansas City Chiefs.  They not only ran the most plays at 81, but they also threw the ball nearly 80% of the time.  Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 68 times!  That was a season-high by a wide margin and for the second consecutive week, Mahomes threw for over 400 yards.  What a stretch that Mahomes is currently in!

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