To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their Holidays thus far and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS GPP Week 16 slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.
In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.
Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.
*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*
**This article is not meant to tell you about how good of a spot Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Le’Veon Bell are in. They’re arguably in one of the best spots they’ve been in all year and I’d never tell you to fade that. If the Chiefs are the core of your GPP lineups, you’re probably in a great spot.**
Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!
Welcome home Win Daily family and all NFL DFS fans! We have just a few weeks left of the NFL regular season before we get into the NFL playoffs and best of all we are just days away from the start of the NBA season!
As one of the lead NBA DFS analysts here at Win Daily, I am incredibly excited for this upcoming year with our expanded suite of tools, projections, cheat sheets, daily content and expert advice.
If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!
Before we dive into this week’s NFL DFS picks, we always want to take a quick look back at the winning tournament builds to understand what we can learn from them.
The Milly Maker last week, for the second week in a row used a double tight-end build and had minimal stacking/correlation – using just a Derek Carr/Nelson Algholor 1-2 Raiders punch to take home a solo ship!
Interestingly enough, this build had multiple RB/WR stacks with Derrick Henry/AJ Brown and David Montgomery/Allen Robinson which is a highly unique mini-stacking approach that would typically not have the optimal correlation but the pure upside of these plays was enough to win big!
As we do every single week, we always need to start at the top to understand where the slate-breaking stars sit in terms of price point and match-up, and this week it really begins with two key spots – 1) Derrick Henry ($9.5K) against a Lions defense ranking among the worst at stopping the run and 2) The Kansas City Chiefs passing attack led by Patrick Mahomes ($7,900), Tyreek Hill ($8.8K) and Travis Kelce ($8K).
The argument for Henry against Detroit this week is basically a cut and paste from whatever you could have said last week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up 30 DK points per game to opposing RB’s this season, which is the third worst mark in the NFL and we just watched the Titans stud RB rumble for 39 DK points on 215 yards and 2 TD’s.
There are only two teams in the NFL that are giving up more DK points per game to opposing RB’s than the Jacksonville Jaguars – Henry’s opponent in Week 15, the Detroit Lions, and his opponent from Week 6, the Houston Texans. In that Week 6 game, Henry rumbled for 212 yards and 2 TD’s on his way to 43.4 DK points.
So to recap – Henry has faced a bottom three rushing defense already twice this year, averaging just under 215 yards per game with 2 TD’s and 42 DK PPG. This week he gets to face the last rung of that triumvirate – and it is crazy to think that his price point still allows for profit.
Listen, I know $9.5K is expensive, but a 42 DK point game as outlined above gets you 4.4X on DK, and frankly, with as much value as we have once again, I see no reason to move off the best play on the slate. Henry was the best play last week and was “just” 26% owned in the DK Milly Maker – if that holds, I am happy to let 75% of the field chase me as King Henry breaks the slate once again.
The other high-end spot that has slate winning appeal is in arguably the best game of the week as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the New Orleans Saints.
It is not often you see a DFS offense this top-heavy, but you have the highest-priced player at three positions in the Chiefs offense with Mahomes, Tyreek and Kelce as the most expensive players at their respective positions once again. Waxing poetic about this offense in a dome against the Saints in a high total game seems silly – at this point we all know this offense is an amazing DFS building block – but maybe we take for granted just how freaking good they really are.
Over the last 6 weeks, this passing trio has combined for 539.62 DraftKings points which equates to 89.62 DK points per game. At a combined salary of $24.7K, their AVERAGE game the last six weeks would still return you 3.6X at their price points in Week 15 – meaning, there is still a lot of “meat left on the bone” – shoutout to my man Will Preister for this reference.
To put this another way, if the Chiefs stud trio sets your lineup at 90 DK points and you tack on Derrick Henry’s 40 DK points on layaway – you are are at 130 points and basically staring at the cash line with just those four studs alone.
Now, the counter – the $35K you spent to get them, leaves you with just $3K+ per player for the rest of your build so it means a Stars/Scrubs approach is your only path but it is once again more than viable.
Look back at last week as an example in the Milly Maker winner – the winning build had 4 players of their 9 man roster at $4.7K or lower – with the foursome of Algholor, Gesicki, Eifert and Dallas DST giving you an average cost of just $3.6K for nearly 50% of your roster.
Guys, I say it week in and week out – this year the Stars and Scrubs approach opens up for us as the week goes on EVERY SINGLE TIME. The winning builds capitalize on it every single week and this week with high upside stars to pay for, I am going to take the proven path once again!
Writing this article early in the week, means that sometimes the perceived value we have will shift with it. The reality is, the value typically shifts right up to lock – look back at last week as the Jamison Crowder news that he would be active put a damper on everyone rushing to use the Jets punt WR’s – the value is volatile and what is value on Wednesday/Thursday sometimes gets forgotten about by the time we hit lock on Sunday afternoon.
What we do have though early in the week is “paths” – where we can start to cast a wide player pool of $3K-$4K options that make any top-heavy build work. Don’t believe me? Go scroll through the DK player pool and count the number of Q tags you see – I will wait.
Already this week we are getting news that will open up value paths for us – and remember not every value has to be a true punt. With Ronald Jones having finger surgery and now being placed on the COVID-19 list, it looks highly unlikely he will suit up for Tampa Bay which means we get Leonard Fournette ($4.5K) as the lead back against Atlanta, and right off the bat, we get ourselves a back with a 15-20 touch path who is game script proof with this role in the Tampa passing offense.
SUNDAY AM UPDATE: While much of the same first look logic applies as I wrote early in the week, the truth is – the value has changed and it has changed in a drastic way.
The single biggest news of the week was in New Orleans, as we got news that Drew Brees would return and Michael Thomas would be out. I know this is the value section but let’s be honest, Alvin Kamara is about $2K too cheap with this news and there is a reason he is going to be among the most popular plays.
This news also pushes multiple New Orleans pass catchers to the top of the value chain – Emmanuel Sanders, TreQuan Smith and Jared Cook who all sit in the glorious $3K-$4K range on DK.
When you step back and look at this slate from a high level, the elite game environments simply do not exist, in fact, we have only 3 of the 11 games on the Main Slate projected for 50+ points. This Kansas City-New Orleans game stands so far above the rest in my mind when it comes to high total, close spread, and the in-game Star power – and NOW we have all the correlated value to make it work? Yes, please.
I am stacking this game up, down, sideways, diagonally and backwards.
We started the week with the simple idea of stacking Kansas City AND Derrick Henry and now with all the Saints value, you can minimize your player pool almost entirely to this game and you are capturing all the angles of the best game environment of the day.
Find me an NFL DFS week and I will find you a reason to go Stars and Scrubs. Week 15 my friends is no different.
With the Saints news it becomes so easy to lock in Mahomes and Tyreek/Hill with the cheap skill players now on New Orleans. And you can do all of this while still getting the single best player on the slate in Derrick Henry.
Listen, playing this game will not be sneaky BUT it’s also not projecting as overwhelming chalk either which is why I think you can go well over the field and gain leverage.
At QB – Mahomes is just barely cracking double-digits as ownership is largely spread out among the position with guys like Lamar, Hurts and Kyler all in similar ownership ranges.
While the skill players like Tyreek/Kelce and Sanders are among the top 25-30 most popular plays – their ownership is not materially different than other similarly high-owned players.
As an example – Kelce is sitting between 15-20% ownership on DK but the “pivot” down to Mark Andrews remains popular between 10-15%, so how much are you really gaining playing the ownership game there?
Guys like TreQuan and Jared Cook are single digit owned, so where they feel like “easy” value, it doesn’t appear the masses are as sold on them. This is a spot I assumed would be chalk, and am happy to grab all the shares if others are not interested.
I am a big believer in planting a flag and simply letting the chips fall where they may and for me on this Sunday, I will be in the dome in New Orleans at 430 PM EST as I watch the late slate hammer determine my day!
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
This is where the value of Discord pays off when it comes to winning in DFS – you can spend your time having discussions around roster builds/paths leading up to Sunday rather than simply listing off every player in the pool and going “THOUGHTS?”
Let’s talk about the slate in Discord – listen into our shows on Sirius XM and last but not least – Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Well hello friends – we have made it to Week 14 of the NFL season and that means we are in the Fantasy Football playoffs (well some of us anyways) and we get the home stretch of NFL DFS action!
Before we jump into NFL though – our NBA DFS season is days away and our WinDaily promo right now is OFF THE CHARTS. For $149 you not only get NBA but you get – EVERY SINGLE SPORT here at Win Daily. Time to join kids.
As we always do here, before we look forward – we always look back – and that means a quick peek at what it took to take down GPP’s in Week 13.
As you can see from the Milly Maker winner below in week 13, the NFL DFS picks were a tad off the wall with a double tight end build wrapped around a little Derek Carr/Darren Waller mini-stack. This build went far less stack-heavy, bucking the trend we have seen up to this point in the fantasy year.
By and large, this is one of the least correlated lineups we have seen this NFL DFS season but the one takeaway I did have was how they opted to go far more balanced and ignore the high-priced stars like Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and DaVante Adams.
Holy Moses this slate is tasty.
Remember a week ago where we had only a handful of pay up spots and not a ton of high total games we really wanted? Yeah, well this 13 game slate is ENTIRELY different – it is straight up loaded with studs with 4 games that have 50+ totals and 2 more with 49.5 (so we can add them) – meaning that nearly half the games on this slate are projected as shootouts.
As you look at the highest projected scoring games on the slate, I do think there is one “trend” as I dig through my early NFL DFS Picks and that is the lack of desirable run-backs and stacking spots.
Now, we do not HAVE to stack or always run back these high total games for DFS so you could make the argument to just play the stars from these games which means the Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and DaVante Adams taking on a Lions team that they, well more accurately Mr. Jones destroyed earlier this season to the tune of 48.6 DK points on 200+ yards and 3 TD’s.
Aaron Jones ($7.6K) is just the fourth-highest priced back on DraftKings and his price point and demonstrated upside make him an ideal way to get exposure to a Packers team with a slate high 31 implied team total. The Lions have not just given up one big game to Jones, they also surrendered 42 DK points to Dalvin Cook where he ran for 200+ yards and AVERAGED 9.2 YPC and just last week surrendered 27 DK points to David Montgomery. The ceiling is sky-high here for Jones and could be all the exposure you need to the Packers if the game script works in his favor.
The fact that Jones is the fourth-highest priced running back, tells you how loaded this position is with Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery and Derrick Henry all in the player pool and this position alone is such a great example of the slate overall – so many elite plays in good match-ups that you are going to want to find ways to get as many studs into your build as possible.
Any time we have this many stars on a slate in good spots, the simple reality is that we know a few will have ceiling games, and making sure we have multiple of them in our builds is going to be the key to cashing.
Christian McCaffery ($9.2K) looks primed to be back in our lives this week and after playing just three games this season, I do wonder if he will be the forgotten stud among this group but lets realize that when CMC is on the field, he gives you high ceiling games every single time. I am sure some will play the wait and see approach – because they did the same thing against KC back in Week 9 and all he did was drop 37 DK points with 18 carries and 10 targets out of the backfield.
With the Panthers potentially being down multiple offensive weapons due to COVID – it could be a ceiling spot for CMC once again and if he’s healthy enough to play, he is healthy enough to be worth every penny of his DFS salary! UPDATE – CMC was limited on Wednesday and was not seen at practice on Thursday with a new injury he somehow picked up during the by week which puts his status in serious jeopardy for this weekend.
Last but not least is Mr. December – Derrick Henry ($8.7K) who gets an elite match-up against Jacksonville. Henry let us down last week at mid-teen ownership with just 7 DK points but this was really game script driven as the Browns jumped out to a massive 38-7 lead which forced Henry into a play from behind role which limited his value. This week against the Jags, with a 30 point implied team total and touchdown+ spread – this could be the game script that gets King Henry back into a ceiling environment.
Now, I touched on this before but the way this slate is setting up is that we have SO many studs that I think you need to have 2-3 in every build because those ceiling games are what is going to drive the cash line. That said – I think there is a path to locking in ALL THREE of the elite backs here this week – building around CMC, Henry AND Jones in a trio that could absolutely get you to the cash line by themselves.
Now before I move on entirely – the one guy I didn’t touch on is Dalvin Cook ($9.4K) who is a fascinating NFL DFS discussion this week. Cook is an obvious stud but among these backs mentioned, he has the clear worst match-up against Tampa Bay – where as guys like Henry and Jones get bottom 3 defenses against the run, Cook has to face a top 3 defense against fantasy running backs. Now add in the fact that he is also the priciest of the crew and you can see why most will skip over him.
That my friends, is exactly why we need to have interest. Think about it – with so many pivots and the easy match-up differentiation among these backs – we are likely to see a scenario where Dalvin Cook is sub 5% owned. A running back with all the snap count, coming off a 40 touch game and who has 8 red zone touches in 2 of his last 3 games – will be virtually un-owned.
The one under the radar news piece this week is the status of Alexander Mattison who was out last week and remained out of practice as of Thursday due to an appendectomy. If the backfield is all Cook’s again this weekend, at low ownership – match-up be damned, we are riding with Dalvin again!
Now, playing all three elite running backs on DraftKings will leave you in a spot where you have just $4K per player for the rest of your build. Not the spot most people want to begin with but if you know anything about me and Picks and Pivots – it is that I never shy away from Stars and Scrubs!
In order to make this work you need to find a cheap passing stack and there is one that really stands out to me this week based off their pricing and potential upside.
Sing it with me – “Hurts so good….come on baby make it hurt so good!”
That is right, it is officially Jalen Hurts ($5.1K) times in Philadelphia as the Eagles made the switch to a new QB1 as they welcome the Saints into Philly on Sunday.
I went back and watched the second half of the Eagles game last week and what I saw from Hurts in a negative game script as Philly was well behind at the point in which he came in, was a QB that would quickly escape the pocket but it was not always just a pull-down and run scenario. Hurts would step up in the pocket, elude pressure and if the shot was there he took it – if not he would pull it down and run for positive yardage. We saw beautiful throws downfield to Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward and his rushing ability was clearly on display anytime his guys were covered and he simply took was he could from the defense on the ground.
The rushing upside and ability for $5K is really what sets the tone here when looking at Hurts for your NFL DFS picks. We saw it in Taysom Hill’s first few starts that his rushing ability alone set a floor that also gave him a massive ceiling due to his TD equity and as we saw last week against Atlanta – once you open up the passing game, it gives him so many more paths to fantasy production.
Hurts has the kind of dual-threat ability we covet in DFS – a player who gives you a solid floor because of the rushing skillset who also has the downfield arm strength to crush this price tag and go 4-5 times his salary.
While I do think you could play Hurts as a stand alone play in cash games, for GPP’s there is even more appeal in stacking because there is not a single Eagles passing option over $5K on DraftKings (you see where I am going with this right?)
Now the tricky part is that we simply do not know how the offense will look with Hurts at the helm and trying to decipher target share etc. becomes a difficult task. Much in the same way that folks avoided the Saints skill players when Taysom took over due to the unknown – I could see the DFS community taking the same approach here with Hurts and the Eagles.
In watching Hurts operate last week there were two key takeaways albeit in a limited sample. First was that Hurts was able to take the shots downfield that Wentz was unable to do as you can see with the beautiful throw to Jalen Reagor ($4.4K) posted above. Reagor has the speed to pay off at this price tag and considering his 70%+ snap count, he makes for an intriguing pairing with Hurts.
Greg Ward ($3.1K) has seen his snap count steadily tick up (71% last week) while Travis Fulgham has gone from 96% two weeks ago down to 40% last week. Ward was an obvious target for Hurts last week including a deep touchdown pass and at just $100 over the minimum on DK, he gives you another punt stacking partner.
The tight end position may be the “safest” way to attack the Eagles with Dallas Goedert ($4k) and Zach Ertz ($3.7K) giving you solid options to fill your TE slot with minimal investment. Goedert still saw 84% of the snaps last week even with Ertz back and overall the Philly TE’s combined for 11 total targets.
Now – if we take the approach of stacking the Eagles passing game, you can get 3 skill players from Philly for an average cost of just $4K per player on DK which is really appealing and it allows you to actually get an interesting run back that I didn’t set out to build with – but fits nicely in Michael Thomas ($7.1K).
MT has now had two 100 yard games with double-digit targets since Taysom Hill took over and after seeing what DK Metcalf and Davante Adams did to this Philly secondary the last two weeks – another 20+ DK point outing could be on the horizon.
Writing this article early in the week is always meant to be a first look but it is helpful to give you an idea of slate context and what is possible. The sheer amount of studs on this slate in elite spots makes me lean heavily towards a Stars and Scrubs build that will allow us the ability to get 2-3 high octane plays in our build.
This build always requires SOME value to open up and frankly, that path has opened up every single week between injury and COVID news, so I am confident it will once again.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Let’s talk about the slate in Discord – listen into our shows on Sirius XM and last but not least – Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Happy Monday my Win Daily Family and Friends! After a massive day of football on Sunday, we wake up today with a unique Monday Night Football slate on tap with TWO games between Washington/Pittsburgh and Buffalo/San Francisco.
With this being a “Classic” format with another Millionaire Maker GPP on DraftKings, it becomes a fun slate to play with solid prize pools that we can attack in tournament play.
On a two game slate like this, it is far less about “playing the best plays” and far more important to play the right game theory and ownership – which in my mind, is what makes this slate so much fun.
I will say this also – the salary is super soft on DraftKings, especially with weak RB/TE positions which is going to allow you to get all the stars on the slate you want. Just realize everyone else will find this path too – so this could be the ideal slate to leave money on the table OR spend it differently.
When looking over this slate, I think what will stand out to most is we have two “name” offenses in the Steelers and Bills that will likely drive the far majority of ownership, and that all starts at the QB position with Josh Allen ($7.3K) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6.4K).
The argument for Allen is all about the rushing game which gives him a ceiling that frankly no other QB on this slate can approach. We have seen other rushing QB’s excel in this match-up against SF – Kyler (90 yds), Daniel Jones (49), Taysom (45) – so there is a floor/ceiling with Allen that makes him really appealing here tonight. The simple fact is no team has given up more rushing yards to opposing QB’s than San Francisco – seems like a good reason to eat the Allen chalk.
The other benefit with Allen – his stacking partners become really clear with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley – and there is a reason that trio is projected for massive chalk. The question becomes – fade it entirely or find ways to slightly pivot off it?
Big Ben meanwhile the throwing the football at an absurd volume, with 42+ attempts now in 4 straight games which include 51 passes in this disgusting Wednesday Afternoon “scrimmage” against the Ravens JV team.
The interesting aspect here tonight is that both chalky QB’s will be facing top 10 defenses in terms of QB fantasy points allowed so the match-ups could be reason to pivot. No QB on this slate has a better on paper match-up than 49ers QB Nick Mullens ($5.1K) against this Bills passing defense that has allowed – EVERY SINGLE QB (not named Sam Darnold) to rack up 20 or more DK points this season?
Mullens has been underwhelming in his starts at QB, with just one game over 20 DK points but in fairness, he also has not yet had a game with all his offensive weapons around him and Week 13 will be the first such instance as the 49ers welcomed back Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert last week and now get Brandon Aiyuk back – the healthiest this offense has been in weeks. The 49ers have a 23 implied point total as of this writing which os just 1-2 points behind the Bills/Steelers and this 49ers passing attack will clearly be the lowest owned stack of the lot.
Last week Deebo Samuel (6.1K) came back to 13 targets and 133 yards receiving against the Rams as the clear WR1 and run back with Mullens – but do not overlook the return of Brandon Aiyuk ($5.1K) who has hauled in 8 and 14 targets in the only two games he has played with Mullens this season (granted both were without Samuel).
You can opt to play this one of two ways – stack up Mullens with the SF WR’s OR use them as the run back in a game stack with the Bills chalk and hope that game shoots out and you get ceilings on both sides.
While QB and WR give you some viable pivot paths – the one position I think you may need to play it straight is at running back – where Antonio Gibson Raheem Mostert and Benny Snell all have large roles and high ceiling potential.
Snell played 71% of the snaps against Baltimore on Wednesday and if you are fading Big Ben and the Steelers passing game is the IDEAL leverage playing hoping that the Steelers get out in front and lean on the running game. The Snell/Steelers DST ($4.5K) mini-stack will be a highly popular correlated stack for good reason today.
Gibson and teammate Terry McLaurin are the two most interesting plays on this slate in my opinion because they have arguably two of the highest ceilings but the most difficult match-up against the elite Steelers DST. McLaurin could take the Hollywood Brown path from Wednesday – needing just one long pass to pay off his price tag and his dominance on the Washington target share makes him almost game script proof here tonight.
Gibson is the riskier path though, considering only one running back all year has managed to eclipse 16 DK points against the Steelers. The one promising aspect though – his passing game involvement materially improved last week as he saw a season-high 7 targets last week against Dallas. If Gibson gets that passing down work again then he becomes a really difficult fade for me at arguably the weakest position on the slate.
My Washington exposure though is really likely to be determined by ownership. Right now McLaurin is the second highest projected owned WR and Gibson is the chalk RB. Considering that only one RB has gone over 20 DK points and only 3 WR’s have eclipsed that mark against Pittsburgh this year – this feels like a spot where the chalk has a demonstrated path to bust and could be the small leverage we need.
When you step back and look at this slate, I really think it comes down to finding paths to be different – and frankly, the paths to be different are TOUGH to find.
If you decide to play the chalkier passing stacks (Allen with Diggs/Beasley or Ben with Steelers WR) – where are you going to get different?
Because the WR pool is as deep as it is today, I think this is where you try and get different and that is what leads me to the San Fran passing game which is projected for the lowest ownership of any passing attack on the slate.
Today is a day to listen to the industry – watch ownership and make CALCULATED decisions on where and how to be different. Small slates like this are all about game theory and strategy – challenge yourself today to think differently.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Welcome welcome welcome back my friends and my family – we are officially into Week 13 of the NFL season after a wild Week 12 which gave us Wednesday Afternoon Football and now we turn our attention to Week 13 and our NFL DFS picks.
When you step back and look at this slate unlike in previous weeks, we don’t have the volume of “obvious” elite game environments with only 3 of the 12 games sporting totals of 50 or higher as of this writing.
The scheduling this week does have something to do with that as we have Kansas City off the Main Slate, we have THREE games now scheduled for Monday Night Football (which is going to make for a nice little Monday DFS Slate) and we have the Buccaneers/Panthers on bye which takes off some high octane plays like CMC and the Tampa Bay passing game.
The pricing on DraftKings adds another level of intrigue for me as we have some SERIOUS pay-ups this week with three players at $9K or higher in DaVantae Adams ($9K), Derrick Henry ($9.2K) and Dalvin Cook ($9.6K) – all three of which are now priced at their season high.
At this point in the season we do not need to argue the merit of these elite players talent or DFS ceiling – there is a reason they are priced where they are. I do wonder though what impact the pricing on these players will have on ownership and how folks attack this slate.
We only have to go back one week, where Cook was priced at an identical $9.5K in a SMASH NUT LOCK spot and we saw the masses all follow the group think – pairing Cook with the value backs we had and went about their day. Well – what happened?
Cook at 40-45% ownership barely cracked double-digit fantasy points and those who went Cook/Brian Hill – were left watching the field pass them quickly once the Kansas City Chiefs high priced stack took the late game hammer and sent the field reeling.
After playing and writing DFS for the last 5+ years there is one constant we can predict no matter the sport- recency bias is real. So after being uber chalk and busting and then starting your Week 13 research and seeing this news pop up – what do you think will happen?
If you tuned into my debut on the Win Daily Sports show on SiriusXM on Saturday (not so humblebrag), I made the case that Dalvin Cook was my “squirrel nuts on the table” fade of the week and the primary reason was that there were other high priced plays at a fraction of the ownership that had similarly high ceiling – notably the Chiefs passing game.
Now this week when you look at the “pivot” options off Cook, you have the obvious high dollar pivots like Henry as we mentioned but you really don’t have the same player pool up top that I think could rival a guy like Cook IF he has a ceiling game.
Now what this could all mean is that folks look at the pricing on Cook/Henry etc. and argue that the market rate has gotten to a point where there is simply no more value at the price tag and if that becomes the industry groupthink, does it leave the high dollar tiers under-owned relative to what we have seen in previous weeks?
While Cook/Henry provide logical either/or pivots at RB – Adams sits in a tier all by himself at WR against an Eagles secondary that we just watched DK Metcalf destroy on Monday Night Football. My initial reaction after watching what DK did to Darius Slay was – I wonder if Davante has had success against him – and then I saw this tweet from Matthew Freedman.
Well, that seems strong to quite strong.
There is no doubt that these three studs are likely the be the highest projected plays on the slate – all 3 of which make for great “plays” – but we know salary is a thing and I think this week it may force people out of this tier OR push them to pick just one high-level spend to build around
But you know how Picks and Pivots rolls – we are here to think different and we like to keep our strategic mindset each week and rather than simply pick just one of the studs – what about a build where we pick ALL THREE.
Yeah that’s right – Stars and Scrubs time my friends.
Now, if we opt to go this route – I do not think it simply “starts and stops” with the Big 3 – I think by using DaVante Adams, you are essentially going to have to pair him with Aaron Rodgers ($6.8K) for the simple reason that you want that correlation and the multi-TD day for Adams means a multi-TD day for A-Aron. Rodgers in of himself is a strong play with 23+ DK points now in 6 straight games and considering his price point – makes for a budget-friendly addition to this top-heavy build.
Now – this is where we get into where the sausage is made – the land of $3K punts that is going to fill out the rest of our roster.
If you have been following along this year – this build has been a consistent model of profit as the typical injury news of the NFL combined with the COVID-19 pandemic has given us multiple paths to value on a weekly basis.
Writing this early in the week we already have some names that are going to pop and by Sunday that player pool will only grow. We saw this formula last week wherein Single Entry GPP’s (where I typically play) – guys like Nyheim Hines and Brian Hill were the value paths found consistently in winning lineups and were values we did not get until later in the week.
So stay tuned – but also, let’s not overlook some early value in some key spots.
The easy first stop here in Houston where the suspension to Will Fuller was not yet factored into the DraftKings pricing algorithm and thus leaves us multiple NFL DFS picks to grab from the Texans with two punt values in Keke Coutee ($3.5K) and Isaiah Coulter ($3K).
The loss of Fuller, the injury to Randall Cobb and the release of Kenny Stills takes 1,110 WR snaps out of the Texans lineup which represents a whopping 63% of the Texans WR snaps this season that are now up for grabs and fall right into the lap of Coutee/Coulter who right away step into roles that far outpace their bargain price point on DK.
If you translate this to target share – through 12 weeks, the Texans WR’s and Tight Ends have accounted for a total of 294 targets and with Fuller/Stills/Cobb now off the field – that takes 142 or 48% of the distributed targets away from Deshaun Watson.
Now Brandin Cooks becomes the logical WR1 now, the clear alpha dog with a 26% target share to date that should only expand – but I think it is fair to question just how much it expands and especially this week against the Colts and CB Xavier Rhodes.
So I already mentioned Coutee and Coulter but you can expand this discussion to the Tight End position like Jordan Akins ($2.9K). If Cooks role stays steady/slightly expands – the reality is – we still have 50% target share now up for grabs in a pass-heavy & dynamic offense. So while it may be best to simply “pick one” of Coutee/Coulter/Akins – what if we make the argument to play all three?
That trio costs you a total of $9.4K on DraftKings – so think about this another way. Is this almost like paying for a $9K WR who will see roughly 50% of a team’s targets?
I know it is not apples to apples and maybe it does not play out this way – but rather than roll the dice and pick just one Texans value, can you stack it up and take the lion’s share of the targets and hope you picked all the right values.
Andy Isabella ($3.2K) was a popular DraftKings value last week with Larry Fitzgerald sidelined and it resulted in a season-high snap count at 55% with 6 targets against New England. Isabella was a popular salary saver last week because of his expanded role and because he did not SMASH – people will move on to the shiny new Week 13 value – meanwhile every reason you played him in Week 12 still applies.
We talked about this on the SirusXM show on Saturday bur my process every single week in the NFL is the same when coming up with my NFL DFS picks – I start with an early week core and try to find the value as the week goes on to make it all work.
This week -my hope is that the inflated pricing keeps folks off the three high-priced stars – now maybe not to the point where any ONE play is sneaky but how many people will try to fit ALL THREE?
The key is making the value work and it will require multiple punts but on a weekly basis that path has opened up as the week has gone on – and as noted above, we already have values that we can use as a basis of our player pool.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
After a monster Sunday for the Win Daily family with our NFL DFS Picks – we are back on Monday with back to back nights of Monday and Tuesday Night football which sets up for some Showdown/Primetime DFS to make it through early in the week.
Big shout out to RyMcNeil and all our subs who built around the Kansas City passing stack and turned big-time profits – we simply love to see it!
Let’s start with the Tuesday Night mess that is the Ravens/Steelers – the Thanksgiving nightcap which has been rescheduled to COVID outbreaks on both teams that have made this game a total disaster on both sides. With Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Marc Ingram, Willie Snead and a total of 22 players on the COVID-19 list, there is a reason Vegas has the Ravens with a FIFTEEN (15) implied total.
So now we get a banged-up team against an elite defense – one that put up 18 DK points against Baltimore just a few weeks ago on the back of 4 sacks, 2 fumbles and a TD – and locking in the Pittsburgh DST ($4.7K) seems like step one from this game.
With James Conner placed on the COVID list for the Steelers – this could be the Benny Snell Jr. ($4.9K) show and frankly that Snell/Pitt D mini-stack seems like the best possible correlation in an overall brutal game.
Now it is entirely possible this game gets moved again but the NFL just let the Broncos play a game without a Quarterback so I am not going to even pretend like I know what they will do – assuming this game plays, the safest route feels like getting Snell/Pittsburgh D and just pretending the rest of the game doesn’t exist.
The reality is – the Monday Night Football game between the Seahawks/Eagles is where our focus should be on this primetime slate and will make for a fun showdown slate (Yes Stix, I said a FUN showdown slate).
The Seahawks are coming into this game with their running back room as healthy as it has been in weeks with Chris Carson back, which pushes Carlos Hyde and DeeJay Does Dallas to backup roles.
Rather than sort through a crowded backfield rotation against an Eagles defense that has allowed just 2 running backs to eclipse 20 DK points this season – I would much rather focus my salary on the Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett trio.
On short slates like these – I want to focus my builds on the players that can break the slate and this Seahawks threesome is where I think you have the best chance of capturing ceiling games and you get the benefit of the QB-double stack to maximize the DFS output.
Seattle’s passing game is so highly concentrated on Metcalf/Lockett – they make up 80% of the WR targets this season and 50% overall and that is with players like Greg Olson (OUT) and David Moore (questionable) included. With Olson sidelined and Moore looking unlikely to play, it puts even more of the offensive focus on this duo and that star-power is a necessary building block on this smaller slate.
If Freddie Swain gets the start as the #3 WR in place of Moore, I am not sure we need him on the prime time slate but at $200 on the Showdown Slate, would become an elite value.
At this point, we all know the deal – no team gives up more fantasy points to opposing WR’s than Seattle so the trio of Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward are all cheap runbacks in a game stack here. The concern I have with the Eagles passing game tonight is that Carson Wentz can’t hit the broad side of a barn and there are strong indications of an expanded role for Jalen Hurts this week.
The key to offenses in the NFL is consistency and continuity and using a two QB “gadget” system could really cap the upside for the Eagles passing game. As Ian Rapoport broke down, it sounds like a “rotating plays/series” scenario and that makes me really nervous as the game flow will be start/stop as they rotate QB’s in and out.
When the Philadelphia Eagles take the field on Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks, they will do so with Carson Wentz as their starting quarterback. But for the first time, sources say, the Philadelphia QB position will see a change.
Jalen Hurts is expected to receive increased playing time at quarterback, and unlike on previous snaps, Wentz won’t be on the field. It will be the first time in 2020 that this dynamic will take place.
It’s unlikely that Hurts, the second-round Heisman finalist from Oklahoma and Alabama, will get to take an entire series. More likely, it will be two or three plays at a time. But, based on the game plan and the week of practice, he should see his most significant snaps yet.
Ian Rapoport – NFL.com
Over the last 3 weeks the Eagles passing targets have been pretty sprad out with Fulgham (19), Reagor (18) and Ward (15) all getting strong target share and this could become a good mix and match situation based on your roster construction.
On the Primetime slate – Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert stand out as elite plays due to the position scarcity at RB/TE while they seem far less “necessary” on showdown as I think the Eagles WR’s give you solid Philly exposure at cheaper price points.
We say this every week in Discord but it bears repeating – Showdowns/Primetime slates are volatile bankroll drainers if you over extend yourself.
The key to these slates in my opinion – take stands and predict game scripts versus predicting player output.
As an example – if Miles Sanders is popular, take the leverage and play Boston Scott who took 40% of the snap count last week. If you think the Eagles struggle – go with a Seahawks onslaught stack and use their DST as direct leverage on the Eagles offense etc.
Have fun with these slates – take some tourney shots- but if you are playing for bankroll building or safety – just go ahead and withdraw now. These are dart throws and they have massive boom/bust potential.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Welcome to Week 12 my NFL DFS friends! After a two-game appetizer on Thanksgiving Day, we get a full slate on Sunday to sort through with our NFL DFS Picks but before we get there – there is no better way to start Black Friday than with our very own deal here at Win Daily Sports.
Our Black Friday deal is simply out of control with EVERYTHING at Win Daily being 50% off – you can get a monthly all-access Gold membership for just $15 or lock in a year for just 50 cents a day or $180 for the year. Seriously – do not miss this. With the NBA just weeks away – there is no better time to join.
As we look toward’s Sunday’s slate we continue to have a cloud of uncertainty due to COVID-19 which could once again wipe a game off the slate before it even starts as the Steelers/Ravens game remains in serious jeopardy. However, we still have 11 games to choose from in our NFL DFS Picks and as I write this on Friday, there are a long list of injury tags which could open paths to value and another week of Stars and Scrubs!
As I always do here in Picks and Pivots, I like to get a first look “gut reaction” to a slate, and boy oh boy is my gut telling me something – and it has nothing to do with the Thanksgiving leftovers – OK maybe a little bit.
The Chiefs/Buccaneers has a slate leading Vegas total of 56 and this is the kind of offensive shootout that could have massive GPP takedown potential. The season-long pace stats don’t tell the true story of what this game could be as we have seen both teams really step up the pace in recent weeks as since Week 5, these teams rank 7th and 8th in the pace of play on offense and the Chiefs, in particular, are playing at the 3rd fastest pace over the last three weeks.
So you are telling me we get Patrick Mahomes ($8K) playing a high pace, going up a defense that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 376 and 3 TD’s – let’s just say the humping monkeys will be flying in Discord come Sunday afternoon.
My man Adam Strangis teased this in his in-depth Game by Game Breakdown but this game script really sets up perfectly for stacking when you look at the defensive strengths and weaknesses. The playbook for attacking Tampa Bay has become crystal clear the past few weeks – you simply cannot run on them and it forces teams to go pass heavy and win through the air.
Over the past 5 weeks, every single QB that has faced TB has thrown for at least 2 TD’s and this group averaged over 22 DK points with names not nearly at the level of Mahomes – Goff, Bridgewater, Carr, Danny Dimes and Drew Brees.
What we could end up seeing is a one-sided play-calling attack from Andy Reid, attacking TB almost entirely through the air and we only need to go back two weeks to see what that could mean for the Chiefs fantasy production. Against Carolina, KC basically abandoned the run – rushing the ball only 11 times compared to 45 passing attempts and that kind of game script led to a massive day from Mahomes/Tyreek/Kelce.
In that game -Mahomes (35 DK points), Hill (36), and Kelce (29) all pushed for ceiling games and I could see a very similar pass-heavy game script where we can attack it in a very condensed fashion with this trio. Now, the trio is pricey on DraftKings with Tyreek Hill ($7.8K) and Travis Kelce ($7K) at premium prices at their positions but I think make for an ideal “Stars” stack in our Stars and Scrubs world.
Now if we play the game script that KC is throwing and scoring, it means that Tampa Bay will have to keep pace and I think it makes for an ideal run-back where Tom Brady and company are chucking to keep pace with the defending Champs.
What stands out to me is the pricing on Tampa Bay as there is not a single RB/WR over $6.1K which makes this a really strong way to get run back exposure without breaking the bank.
We have seen Antonio Brown’s price push up to $5.7K on DraftKings and is now neck and neck with teammates Chris Godwin ($6K) and Mike Evans ($6.1K).
Against the Rams, Brown was on the field for 62% of the snaps while Godwin (99%) and Evans (88%) so there is more on-field certainly with Evans/Godwin but the counter is that AB led the team with 13 targets despite the smaller snap count and that kind of target share in this game environment makes him a viable pivot. In any KC 3 man stack – I am going to try and find ways to run it back with 2 TB pass catchers.
Leonard Fournette ($4.9K) played 52% of the snaps compared to Ronald Jones at 36% on Monday Night Football and despite dropped 3 of his 4 targets, provides the best “game script”option in this backfield in a game we expect to be a shootout. Fournette is the clear passing down back and he still gets around 10 rushes per game so he offers a cost effective route to this Tampa Bay offense.
Cue up some Frank Sinatra – New York, New York.
It is not often that the Big Apple is known for providing cost-effective solutions but this week in NFL DFS, there are some serious value options that I think could find their way into my core.
What if I told you that this week, you could get a top 3 running back since Week 7 – one who trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara in fantasy points – and you could do it at a $3K-$4K price discount?
Welcome to Wayne Gallman ($5K) season my friends!
Gallman has put up just under 16 DK points per game since Week 7 with a TD in every single game, with a team-leading 11 red zone touches during that time frame. That red-zone equity could really pay off this week in a game script against a banged-up Bengals squad where I could see the Giants DST getting this into a run-heavy game script for Gallman as they play with a lead. The Gallman and Giants DST ($3.2K) duo provides some strong stacking correlation at a cheap cumulative salary.
So now is the point of Picks and Pivots where I ask you to grab a drink – in fact, grab a few – you are going to need it.
Yes, because we are about to talk about the New York Football Jets.
Let’s start with the easy one – Denzel Mims ($3.5K) just remains FAR too cheap considering his role and target share as this is a player who has played 90% or more of the snaps in each of the last three weeks with 8 targets per game in each of the last two weeks.
Now the one “caveat” is the Jets will be going back to Sam Darnold this week and it feels weird to think that is a potential downgrade to Mims from Joe Flacco, but that is the reality right now as Flacco/Mims really seemed to find a groove the last two weeks. I am going to side with the snap count, targets and the breakout talent of Mims and use him as one of the “Scrubs” to help me afford the Stars in the KC-TB game.
Alright, kids – here we are. It is time to talk about it. Frank Gore ($4.3K) is the lone healthy back in the Jets backfield and we get a REVENGE game against Miami!
Listen, I don’t like it. I hate it. I want to vomit more writing him up than I did after our Win Daily Thanksgiving live stream where I chugged beers in a flying squirrell onesie – but this is 2020 and things are weird.
Gore is going to get all the workload with Perine on IR – he played 60% of the snaps last week against the Chargers and the volume/snap count is just so grossly secure for a 74 year old running back on a winless team – but as we saw with Adrian Peterson on Thanksgiving – all it takes is for the old man to fall into the end zone a few times and you are cooking with gas.
Oh wait – you thought I was done? If we are going with Gore – I actually think a mini-stack with a punt Jets DST ($2.1K) could pay off in a big way.
The Miami offensive line was a mess last week, giving up 6 sacks to the Denver Broncos and with so much uncertainty with Tua and the potential for some Fitzmagic – I have some serious interest in the Jets defense that despite giving up points, showed last week they could get pressure on the Chargers with 3 sacks and went for 4x value with a fumble recovery, blocked punt and a safety.
I have been saying this all year about the Jets. Adam Gase and company were going to win a meaningless game and somehow J-E-T-S their way out of Trevor Lawrence.
It is going to happen – and I have a weird feeling this is the week it happens – all aboard a gross Jets stack this week. All a freaking board.
Heading into Sunday, my strategy remains consistent as we look to unlock a Stars and Scrubs build with my focus around getting a game stack of the high octane Kansas City and Tampa Bay passing games.
Now going this route requires value but by Saturday morning even more value has opened up with a few key injuries. First and foremost – Todd Gurley is OUT which gives us Brian Hill ($4K) at minimum priced in a featured/expanded role.
Looking for value WR’s? Well, our projections have four WR’s projected for 3x value including both Jacksonville WR’s in Cole and Shenault as they will see expanded roles with Chark/Conley ruled out.
It happens almost every single week where these Stars and Scrubs builds essentially fall into our lap and with a focus on an elite game in TB/KC – all it takes is 1-2 punts to make it work and well, the closer we get to lock, the more of them fall into our player pool.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
