draftkings nfl picks

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Thanksgiving Day Slate

As a kid, it was always logical that birthdays and Christmas were my favorite “holidays” – I mean you wake up and get presents, what more could you ask for?

As an adult (well at least in age), there is no day I look forward to more than Thanksgiving – food, family, and all-day football – what more could you ask for?

Do you know what makes this even better? Our Black Friday deal is simply out of control with EVERYTHING at Win Daily being 50% off – you can get a monthly all-access Gold membership for just $15 or lock in a year for just 50 cents a day or $180 for the year. Seriously – do not miss this. With the NBA just weeks away – there is no better time to join.

While this Thanksgiving may be a but unique due to the continued pandemic, the one constant will be non-stop DFS for us to tilt and a great three game NFL DFS slate that sets up perfectly for tournament play.

This 3 game main slate will force us to make some critical NFL DFS Picks decisions right off the bat – with game environments that will push optimal plays at high ownership – and that all begins with what to do with DeShaun Watson ($7.4K) as the top QB and arguably top overall play against the Detroit Lions.

Watson is the highest projected scoring player in our AETT Model at Win Daily Sports and as other staff have argued here – this is a do not get cute spot for me. The question is not whether to play Watson – it is how you build around him that will make all the difference.

From a macro level, the Texans-Lions game with a 51 game total is the best pure game environment to attack as we not only have the highest Vegas total but we also have a game with two top 12 teams in terms of pace.

With this being just a 3 game slate, I think going with overloaded stacks is a viable strategy to differentiate yourself versus those who play it more traditional with their stacking. As such – I love the idea of going “all-in” with a Texans aerial attack – pairing Watson with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Akins.

Now, none of these plays in isolation will be sneaky – Fuller and Cooks are projected to be two of the highest owned plays on the entire slate – but the more pieces you add to this stack the more the cumulative ownership on the Texans will decrease.

Taking this one step further – if you are going to overload on Texans than you are predicting a game script in which Watson and company are in a high scoring and close affair that pushes them to their ceiling – and that means the Detroit Lions run back is critical.

Now figuring out the preferred Lions is not as easy due to injury concerns with Kenny Golladay trending towards missing this game while TJ Hockenson and De’Andre Swift are looking more likely to suit up. If we are going with a four or three man Texans stack, then running it back with two Lions skill players will be at the core of my tournament strategy,

As Adam Strangis pointed out in his Game by Game breakdown – running back is THE spot to attack this Texans defense and so Swift would be a priority run back with either Jones or Hockenson as the secondary play based on your roster construction.

One way to really get different on this slate – stack up both offenses…and wait for it – use either the Texans or Lions DST.

Now, typically using a DST against offenses we are stacking is a “fish move” as the kids say – but I think on this small slate it becomes a really interesting strategy for a few reasons.

First and foremost is salary – these two defenses are the cheapest options on DraftKings and I am a huge believer in never paying for defense – in fact, my typical strategy is to build my lineup and simply fit in whatever DST is left.

Secondly, if we are playing a game script of fast pace and high scoring, that would also result in turnovers or DST scores due to the “shoot-out” nature of the game.

Think about it – the Ravens/Steelers are the “best” defense options on the slate because of the slow pace game environment and low projected points but that game also will mean far fewer chances are taken. If you are playing those defenses – you are playing more for the “points allowed” score in your DFS lineups – whereas if you go with the Texans or Lions DST, you are willing to give up the points allowed for the upside that would exist with a pick 6 or special teams touchdown.

The afternoon slate on Sunday actually showed us a path to how this could work if you need some tangible evidence. The Chargers offense went off for ceiling games with Herbert (30), Allen (34) and Henry (15) all hitting for big scores and you could have run it back with the Jets DST at $2K – who returned 4x value at minimim price due to a fumble recovery, blocked kick and a safety.

Rather than see them as a contra play against your stack – use one of these DST’s as part of your stack – assuming we get scoring from not just the offense but also the defense in this high total game.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

This three-game slate is going to have some clear chalk paths so simply telling you to play Watson isn’t going to cut it. “Pivoting” to the Dallas/Washington game and using Zeke, Gibson or McLaurin is not actually a pivot in the sense that ownership is nearly identical to the Texans/Lions.

It also does not mean you have to get crazy and play the “off the wall” plays – in fact, I would argue the total opposite. Play the “right plays” and let those who fade them pay the rake – also, instead of picking which ONE player you want in a stack – pick ALL of them.

Take your stand with games versus players.

Assume the Texans offense ALL goes off and you get every pairing alongside Watson to maximize his DFS output versus simply taking only Fuller OR Cooks.

Go all-in. Take a stand. Grab a beer and some turkey and let’s eat!

Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.

Oh and by the way, we have a massive Black Friday deal coming – so stay tuned!

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 – A Look Back:

Week 10 was one of the more bizarre NFL DFS weeks we have had this season with uncharacteristically low cash lines for almost the entirety of the slate. With just minutes left in the late games, cash lines were just above 120 DK points in most tournament’s and it was not until the last minute of the Arizona/Buffalo game which saw Allen/Diggs and Murray/Hopkins take down touchdowns at high ownership, that scores really shot up at all.

Looking back at the Milly Maker winner in Week 10, there were some similarities to the previous week’s winners that are worth pointing out. “Meaganjoy” used a Kyler/Hopkins passing stack and ran it back with Cole Beasley in what was ultimately the only correlation they had. They did however continue with the trend of using multiple value pieces in Josh Reynolds and a punt TE in Logan Thomas which has been a trend we have seen nearly every week.

I will say, I am more inclined to go with the larger data set this season which has shown more correlation by and large HOWEVER, the last two weeks the Milly Maker winner’s have toned that back to a degree so it will be a short term trend that needs to be monitored.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 11 First Look:

At first glance at this Week 11 pre-Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate, what we find is that we are missing many of the marquee names as the Primetime games have taken away Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson on Thursday Night with Patrick Mahomes and company playing the Sunday Night Football game against the Raiders.

Now it does not mean we are devoid of options in our NFL DFS Picks, and in fact, there are a boatload of injuries that will likely shape some significant value as we head towards Sunday.

Looking at the team totals early in the week, the Falcons/Saints game stands out with a 50+ implied team total and some big-time injury news that could/should open up value. With Drew Brees sidelined, it opens up Jameis Winston and Tayson Hill as cheap QB’s, while the Falcons continue to await the return of Calvin Ridley in their WR room.

Brees is not the only QB with an injury tag heading into Week 11 – as Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford and Drew Lock are also questionable with the potential to sit out this week’s action.

On the Running Back side, Christian McCaffery is questionable to return after sitting out Week 10 and don’t worry DFS player, Mike Davis is not $4K any more so we do not have to play the “should we fade the chalk” game here.

The other early big name to watch is Joe Mixon, who remains questionable with a foot injury that has opened the door for Giovani Bernard ($5.5K) to take over as the RB1 for the Bengals. After a tough match-up against Pittsburgh last week, this could be a great get-right spot against Washington – oh, and one more little thing. Sunday is Gio’s birthday so fire up the mustache birthday narrative my friends. It never fails.

On the pass-catcher side, we could get some serious value here as players make their way back from injury – and I think savvy DFS players need to be on the lookout for mispriced bargains. The one name that really jumped out to me early was Zach Ertz ($3.7K) who has been designated to return after a high ankle sprain back in Week 6. Tight end is a wasteland again this week which is going to push us to pay down at the position and if a consistent double-digit target threat like Ertz is available to us at this price point – I am all over it.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 11 Stacks:

I am writing this on Tuesday morning as a first look, and so the amount of things that can change before we get to Sunday are vast – but I am a believer in the value of this first look – a clear eyed view of the slate before the news comes rolling in and we get inundated with fantasy football group think.

The one game that really jumped out to me at first glance was the Packers/Colts – a game with a 50+ implied total here at the open and one that checks a whole lot of boxes. First and foremost – we have star power on the Packers side with Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams who week in and week out just continue to deliver at a high level.

Adams was targeted 12 times against Jacksonville, hauled in a spectacular touchdown and even in a “down game” still made his way to 20 DK points. Rodgers was largely ignored all of last week and he ended up around 5% owned in GPP’s – and proceeded to drop 30 DK points with 3 TD’s – just continuing to produce while everyone flocks towards the shiny new QB’s as their DFS toys.

I do wonder how this week will flush out at QB because without Mahomes, Kyler and Russ – we are looking at a player pool that has Lamar Jackson and Rodgers up top and Justin Herbert as the third most expensive QB on the slate! With the injuries we noted above, I wonder if QB will be a pay down position for many – which once again could leave A-Aron, largely over-looked.

Last but not least – Aaron Jones ($7.2K) – the can’t miss RB1 from Week 10 who well, missed. Now 15 DK points was not the end of the world, but it certainly was not the SMASH SPOT that the DFS community was willing to eat the chalk on. Watch this week as Jones gets totally ignored as recency bias rears its ugly head and then when he goes off against the Colts and you scroll through DFS Twitter as everyone tilts – “of course when I don’t play him he does this!”

What really stands out to me is the Indy side of this game and that is largely due to the pricing on the Colts skill position players. The top two WR’s – Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton are both sitting at $4K price points and Jack Doyle ($2.5K) could return this week as a minimum priced tight end.

Pittman was the lead dog in terms of targets last week with 8 and now much of the Colts WR interest will depend on the status of Packers shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, who missed last week due to a concussion. With Alexander sidelined, we saw Jacksonville was able to move the ball through the air with cheap plays like Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. If Alexander were to sit again – this Colts passing attack would get a major boost and become an elite PP/$ stack with no pass-catcher over $5K on DraftKings.

One of the reasons we need/want the savings – well, we have some SERIOUS pay up RB options to build around with Alvin Kamara against Atlanta and Dalvin Cook against the Cowboys.

There is a reason both players are sitting at $9K or more – they will be popular priority spends and rightfully so. However, these are the kinds of players and match-ups you want to anchor to and it is one of the reasons that finding 1-2 punt values is a critical part of our process every week.

I think going into this week, locking in one – if not both – will be a cash game staple and a scary GPP fade – but early on, I have no issue locking them into my dummy lineups and simply waiting on the 1-2 value plays to open up – because guess what – THEY ALWAYS DO.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

We have 11 games on this Main Slate for Sunday with it setting up more traditionally, with 7 of the 11 being 1 PM EST starts. Heading into the week, the priority is going to be finding ways to pay up at RB (Kamara & Dalvin) but balancing that with high upside passing stacks.

I think as the week unfolds, we will see the value across positions with QB being a spot that could open up a really clear cash game path.

Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.

Oh and by the way, we have a massive Black Friday deal coming – so stay tuned!

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday-Thursday Night Football Slate

What is UP boys and girls? Wow, what a weekend!

First and foremost a HUGE shoutout to our PGA DFS team which absolutely crushed The Masters coverage and led to massive green screens for our very own Stix and Sia as you can see above.

Sunday’s NFL slate was simply wild as the cash line was depressed almost the entire day and the late flurry of scoring in the popular Arizona/Buffalo game really changed the cash position for the entire field as a result. Our Adam Strangis does a great job of breaking down everything from Week 10 in our Cash Game Week in Review.

We are just a week out from Thanksgiving and a week full of football, but before we get there we actually get a solid Monday-Thursday slate we can play this week – really as a result of the marquee Arizona/Seattle match-up on Thursday Night Football.

The Monday Night Football game on this slate is the appetizer – and I use that term loosely – its more like the bread and butter they put on the table before a good meal – sure, it is there and you are hungry but as your Mom always said – don’t fill up on the bread.

That applies to NFL DFS this week as well – as in this two-game slate – your goal should be to minimize your exposure to the MNF game between the Vikings and Bears.

Using our Adjusted Expected Team Totals, we can see the Vikings rank among the highest projected on the week – comparable to the elite offenses we all wanted a part of on Sunday. Conversely, the Bears are by FAR the lowest team total on the board and it makes sense with David Montgomery sidelined and Allen Robsinson questionable with an injury that left him limited all week in practice.

The most “straight forward” path here may be to take the highest correlation pairing with Dalvin Cook ($8.7K) and the Vikings Defense ($2.7K) in what is projected to be a slow-paced game. If the model holds true and this game turns into a Vikings easy win, they can lean on the run and keep this one dimensional Bears offense throwing which would give added turnover upside to the DST.

In the context of the slate, I think it becomes the optimal pairing as well for two reasons. 1) Running back is a wasteland with Montgomery hurt and the Arizona/Seattle backfields being banged up/crowded and 2) Do we really want to play either defense in Thursday Night’s shootout?

By limiting our exposure to Monday Night, we can turn our full attention to one of the best games of Week 11 with the Seahawks and Cardinals in a rematch of a 37-34 shootout in Week 7. The Cardinals are coming off a CRAZY win against Buffalo and this view of the winning TD grab will NEVER get old:

This game is opening with a 56+ total which is two touchdowns more than the Monday Night snoozefest and where we are going to want the majority of our exposure.

Kyler Murray ($8K) is just an absolute DFS cheat code each week with his rushing upside and arsenal of weapons that resulted in 41 DK points the first time these two teams met. Russell Wilson ($7.2K) has had back to back subpar weeks but he did put up 35 DK points of his own back in Week 7 against Arizona so there merit to playing him as a pivot off the Murray chalk – but that is not an argument I think we really need to have – with how Kyler is playing right now, finding the $800 to get to him should be a priority on this slate.

In the Week 7 meeting, DeAndre Hopkins ($7.7K) put up 10 catches for 103 years and a TD on his way to 28 DK points, while Christian Kirk ($6.2K) went for 8/37 and 2 TD’s of his own for 20.7 DK points. Larry Fitzgerald ($4K) never feels like a play I set out on, but when you get a WR at this price point, playing 75%+ of the snaps in this offense with the high game total, it becomes a viable cheap path to get exposure to this passing attack.

We could get some value at Tight End as well in Arizona as Darrell Daniels left Sunday’s game with an injury which means Dan Arnold ($2.5K) would become the primary pass-catching TE (albeit in a limited role). He had 3 targets against Seattle the first time around, good for 2/57 and 7.7 DK points and had 4 targets on Sunday against Buffalo – good for 4/34 and 7.4 DK points which would return 3X value at his minimum price point this week.

The Seattle run back here starts with the WR’s – DK Metcalf (7.5K) and Tyler Lockett ($6.4K). If you remember back in Week 7,Lockett went nuclear – with 15 catches on TWENTY targets for 200 yards, 3 TD’s and 56 DK points.

Meanwhile, Metcalf was held to 2 catches for 23 yards and yet this week he is $200 more than he was in that match-up while Lockett is the same exact price. Considering the discount and the recent game logs, the ownership disparity should be stark which makes me want to pivot and go heavy on Metcalf as a way to get leverage off the Lockett ownership on a two-game slate.

One option would be to pay up for one of the stud Seahawks WR’s and pair them with a cheap David Moore ($3.7K) who will play the third WR role for this aerial attack and has found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games.

The running back situation on both teams is a muddled mess with Kenyan Drake back for Arizona and with the Seahawks banged up but I think we are going to need to get our RB2 exposure here with Dalvin Cook locked as our RB1.

Drake ($5.1K) and Chase Edmonds ($5K) are priced fairly on this slate and I think I would rather take the defined roles of the Arizona backs over the guessing game that is Seattle. Drake returned this past week and ran for 100 yards on 16 carries but Edmonds still found his way to 11 total touches which included 3 targets in the passing game.

I think the way you need to approach these backs is by predicting game script. If you think Arizona is going to be throwing – then Edmonds is the preferred target but I also think you can play out the game script where Arizona uses the passing game to get up, and then uses Drake as their “closer” to run out the clock in a positive game script.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

We talk about this all the time in NFL DFS but our rosters need to “tell a story” and that is even more important in a short slate or a showdown.

This week I think you need to anchor to which stories you see playing out in each primetime game. On Monday Night Football, the data would have us heavily lean towards a Cook/Vikings slow-paced win over a undermanned Bears offense and all that leads to a shootout on Thursday Night Football.

The ownership should be heavily concentrated on the second game, so finding an in game pivot is going to be the key. Going Metcalf over Lockett, deciding on Drake or Edmonds of hitting which of the $2K tight ends will get you “there” – could be what determines your cash game position.

Good luck this week – let’s get set for Week 11!

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 – A Look Back:

As we do every week, the first thing I do in my NFL DFS process is to look back at the previous week’s winning lineups and trends as I am a firm believer that the only way to get better going forward, is to look back and what worked and what did not.

As you can see above, Week 9 was really good to me and I hope those of you who followed along with Picks and Pivots saw similar success as once again we saw the Stars and Scrubs build really pay off and this trend has been a consistent one on DraftKings week after week.

If you missed it – I did a FREE lineup breakdown and review on my Week 9 build on our Win Daily Sports Week in Review show – check it out below!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 First Look:

As we head into Week 10, I want to keep at the forefront of my roster construction, the very simple concept of Stars and Scrubs and how that needs to be at the core of my decision making process. Anchoring to a handful of stars with massive ceilings, can build you a foundation in DFS that gives you multiple paths to big profit and so rather than simply “picking plays” – I want to keep this concept above all else.

We have six of the eleven games on this slate with 50+ implied totals as of this writing so we clearly have a large player pool to sort through in advantageous game environments and there is an argument to be made to simply limit our exposure to these elite games and their stars.

The very first stop for me every week in my NFL DFS journey is to go to our Adjusted Expected Team Totals page and see which teams are poised for the biggest fantasy specific success. This tool is something unique to Win Daily that our man Stix has built out and it takes Vegas team totals and adjusts it for DFS only relevance, excluding points scored by non-skill position players to give us an idea on the offenses to target. This tool was screaming to play the Kansas City offense last week – and well, that worked out quite nicely now didn’t it?

The Seahawks/Rams sit among the slate leaders in the AETT model and with a Vegas game total above 55 fantasy points it is not hard to see why. The Bills/Cardinals have a similarly lofty Vegas total of 55-56 points and both of these teams find themselves popping in the early AETT model as well – and what that leads me to focus on here is the Quarterback options as this could be a week where spending up for Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen becomes a key decision point right away.

These two games check all the boxes – we have high game totals, tight spreads (1-2 points) and all the star power we so desperately crave in DFS tournament play so I think these two games become foundation pieces in your player pool.

What intrigues me though as a GPP player is the pivots off this game – and to find that, you need to check a few boxes – 1) Need similarly high totals with 2) Star power that can match the other games.

All that leads me to the Green Bay Packers who take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in Lambeau Field. But before we dive in here – let’s take one more look back.

Two weeks ago the Kansas City Chiefs passing stack was in the Milly Maker lineup as Mahomes and company dropped a bajillion points on the hapless New York Jets and last week, the KC aerial attack was the low-owned core that helped me win big against the Panthers.

I bring them up because the last two weeks, Kansas City has been the highest individual team total but seemingly over-looked due to double-digit spreads against the Jets and Panthers. So is the DFS community over-looking the “top offense” in games that Vegas expects to be one-sided?

So back to this week – while Buffalo/Arizona and Seattle/Rams have high totals and close spreads – will that lead to concentrated ownership in “safer” game environments and all the while we overlook the fact that Green Bay has the highest team total at 33 points, albeit with a 14 point spread.

If we look at the AETT model here at WinDaily you will see that Green Bay has the highest individual team total for fantasy production by a wide margin – and as Adam Strangis wrote up in his FREE Game by Game Breakdown – the match-up for this Green Bay offense is screaming upside at the key skill positions for the Packers.

So sure, are we worried Jacksonville will keep it close? Maybe – but when dynamic offenses are projected for big days are we really worried about the game staying close if the big players drop massive days before they depart?

We saw it two weeks ago with Mahomes where he tossed 5 TD passes against the Jets and was resting comfortably on the bench by the 4th quarter – did it matter the Jets could not keep it close – not one bit.

If Green Bay is going to go off in this game, the beautiful part is we basically know where it is coming from – and that is the star-studded trio of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and DaVante Adams. This three-man core has the DFS upside to match any and all combinations you may find from the other high total games and if they can do so at a fraction of the ownership – well, you are finding a similar path to success as we had in Week 9.

Running it back with Jacksonville can come in a few ways – you can assume a pass-heavy script with DJ Chark after his 12 target effort last week with Jake Luton under center or even Win Daily favorite, Laviska Shenault who at $3.8K could become a cheap run back that opens up a whole lot for our builds! UPDATE – Shenault has been ruled OUT.

In fact, the Jaguars passing attack in of itself gives us a ton of value with Tyler Eiffert ($2.7K) who had 5 targets last week and if Shenault were not able to play due to a hamstring injury, it could open up Chris Conley ($3K) once again to be a big part of the Jags passing game where he had 8 targets a week ago after Shenault left in the first quarter. With Shenault now confirmed out – Conley/Eiffert becomes a great value pairing in a GB/JAX game stack.

The other way to attack this is where the Packers are weakest, and that is in the run game – with James Robinson ($6.8K). This becomes an interesting game theory/script discussion because if Robinson and the Jaguars can keep this game close, using the running game to get up early – it would force the Packers in a negative/neutral game script to keep throwing.

This game script was exactly what we outlined last week with Carolina/KC where the Panthers got up early with an early long drive and CMC score – and that could be a similar path that leads to the ceiling on both sides this week. Robinson also gives us a path to value in the passing game as he is averaging over 4 targets per game and has three games with 6 or more targets so far this season.

The only argument off this game is going to be the spread and the blowout risk and I think that will make people anchor to the “safer games” in Buffalo/Arizona and Seattle/LAR – setting the Packers/Jaguars up to be a GPP difference maker.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 Values:

The key to this slate in my opinion is going to be the status of Christian McCaffery and by extension – the role of Mike Davis ($4K). CMC returned last game against KC but is now questionable with a shoulder injury which could put Davis back in a lead dog role and thank you to DraftKings for moving him back to minimum price.

This is the kind of value that opens up the Stars and Scrubs paths we have seen win GPP’s week in and week out. Remember a few weeks back when we had Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams at $4K in RB1 roles? This is the path that Davis COULD provide for us once again.

This becomes far less about the “play” and far more about what it means for our roster construction as we can take essentially a “Free Square” with Davis and allocate our salary to fitting in 4-5 stars in our builds.

I am sure people will argue the fade because of “chalk” and blah blah blah – but go back to Week 7 when Williams was $4K chalk, put up his 20 DK points and was a key in the Milly Maker builds. We say it all the time, but winning tournament lineups are largely built around chalk with a few pivots – it is NOT about getting 9 low-owned guys in your builds.

So the CMC news is paramount this week because it gives you the immediate path to a cheap RB1 and a Stars and Scrubs build. Start your builds with Davis this week and if we have to adjust as the week goes on, so be it – we know the value will open up as we approach Sunday. At this point CMC has a Doubtful tag so just eat the chalk here with Davis and move on.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Another week of Stars and Scrubs for me and with multiple high-end games to build around, I think that path is optimal for Week 10.

Now, this is a first look article, written on Wednesday morning, so things can change HOWEVER I love having a dummy build with 2-3 value plays in it to start the week where I can get ideas of how a top-heavy build could work come Sunday.

We do not need to lock in our lineup days in advance but having a path to follow, allows you to focus on finding those 2-3 value plays over the next few days versus waiting entirely to build until the weekend.

Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it.

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 8 – A Look Back:

As we do every week, the first thing I do in my NFL DFS process is to look back at the previous week’s winning lineups and trends and for the second straight week, the Draftkings Milly Maker went with a Stars and Scrubs approach that paid off in a big way!

The big winner last week was ghartman314, who used a Kansas City passing stack, the two elite backs in Henry/Cook, a Metcalf one-off, and 3 punt values to take down the million-dollar top prize.

For the second straight week in this contest, we saw the winning build utilize 3 punt plays at their skill positions ($4K and under) to go top-heavy with their stars that carry them to ceiling games.

What may get over-looked is the continued correlation we talk about so often in GPP’s – as this lineup was built around a few key themes:

3:1 – KC 3 man stack (Mahomes, Kelce, Robinson) with a Jets run back (Mims).

1:1 DK Metcalf with the cheap Kendrick Bourne in a WR/WR stack.

We talk about this often but the 3-1 foundation stack is critical each week and then finding a 1 to 1 secondary stack has been a key secondary component to winning builds.

Before you go and simply click in plays – as yourself, what story does your lineup tell?

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 First Look:

Now, before we move TOO far away from last week – I want to give you an idea of where my process goes next – and that is to our Adjusted Expected Team Totals (AETT) here at WinDaily.

For the second straight week, the Chiefs sit atop this metric which takes Vegas team totals and adjusts it for fantasy relevant performances (ie. taking away points from kickers on FG’s and/or extra points).

For the second straight week, the Chiefs also come into the game with a double-digit spread and “blow out risk” but let’s not act like the Jets offense has any where near the talent of the opponent for KC this week – the Carolina Panthers.

So can we potentially go back to a similar 3:1 KC passing stack with the highest projected scoring team on the slate? Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the clear 1-2 punch in any KC stack but finding that third wheel is where things get tricky.

Tyreek Hill is clearly the best option of the WR’s but we need to watch the status of Sammy Watkins this week who was able to return to limited practice and is officially questionable to play this week. Watkins is under $5K on DK so could be an interesting pivot off Hill if we need the salary savings and his return would really make it tough to use either DeMarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman.

The snap count for this duo has fluctuated on a weekly basis, with Hardman seeing the spike last week 68% of the snaps as compared to Robinson’s 55%. The 9 targets were a clear season-high for Hardman but it is not like Robinson was forgotten with 5 targets of his own and his price at $3.2K versus $4.8K gives you some serious salary relief as GHartman314 utilized last week.

The Carolina side of this game will be fascinating to watch with the return of Christian McCaffery as the Panthers will add another explosive playmaker alongside Robby Anderon and DJ Moore. As Adam Strangis outlined in our Game by Game Breakdown – Anderson will get a match-up with Charvarius Ward who has allowed a 63% catch rate this season and has been victim to the big play which is exactly what we are looking for with the explosive ex-Jet.

The one play that may get overlooked is Curtis Samuel ($4.4K) – another cheap piece in this potential game stack that checks a few boxes for us when making our NFL DFS picks. Samuel is playing 75% of the snaps for Carolina and while you may think the return of CMC could hurt him, in Weeks 1 & 2 when CMC was active, Samuel played 75% and 70% of the snaps – with 10 targets over those two weeks.

If you watched that Thursday Night Football game against Atlanta last week, you saw the kind of game-breaking ability Samuel had on his gadget runs and the long TD pass. I found it interesting that the NFL Next Gen Stats highlighted the top 5 WR speed on go routes and this KC/Carolina game has 3 of the top 5 in Samuel and Tyreek/Mecole on the other side – which could set this up for a sneaky track meet!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 Values:

Now this week may not have the sub $4K punt value at WR we saw last week, but it absolutely is opening up with some sub $5K running backs who look like they have all the volume upside due to injuries.

Heading into Friday we have a few key names in this range to focus on:

• Seattle – With Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde ruled out again, it looks like it is the DeeJay Dallas ($5K) show as the lone healthy back in the Hawks backfield.
• Baltimore – With Mark Ingram once again doubtful, it paves the way for JK Dobbins ($4.9K) and Gus Edwards against the Colts. Dobbins exploded for 115 yards against a tough Steelers defense, playing 66% of the snaps last week.
• Miami – The Dolphins have officially ruled out Matt Breida after putting Myles Gaskin on IR and gross – its Jordan Howard ($4k) time in a pace up spot against Arizona.

While the value may not be as extreme as it was in previous week’s, living in this range at RB2 and Flex could be the path to allow you to stack and spend up other places. We saw similar paths two weeks back with Jamaal Williams and Gio Bernard who became RB1’s in the $4K price range on DK and were consistent plug and plays in top-heavy winning builds.

Mixing and matching in this range – could be an ideal GPP strategy that allows you to spend up where you really want to (QB/WR/TE and RB1).

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

So you are at the point where you want to start building your NFL DFS picks now – and the more we talk through the slate, the more the player pool starts to solidify for me.

As Adam broke down in his Game by Game and Stix outlined in his Cash Game Core – there are going to be some clear Running Backs we want to build around – including Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds and DeeJay Dallas – and as we have seen time and time again – winning GPP builds are often a heavy mixture of eating chalk with 2-3 pivots that make the difference.

I bring this up because a GPP build does not need to be 9 off the wall plays. You do not need to “fade Dalvin Cook” because he’s chalky and play Derrick Henry in a far worse match-up against the Bears at a similar price point just to be different. Instead – you can eat the chalk on the popular running backs in elite game environments and look to get different elsewhere.

This is where the KC/Carolina game stack becomes really interesting to me as at the point of this writing (Saturday AM) – only Travis Kelce is expected to be double-digit owned and he is barely over 10%.

So you can get exposure to a Kansas City offense with the highest projected AETT total in our WinDaily model and frankly – you can find some cheap ways to do so with Watkins (if in), or go to Hardman/Robinson if he is out again. You can also run it back with Anderson, Moore or Samuel – taking shots on game-breaking speed in a game script you expect will be pass-heavy to keep up with the KC aerial attack.

Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it.

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 7 – A Look Back:

It is amazing to think we have already hit Week 8 of the NFL season but here we are and as we always do before we look forward into the upcoming NFL DFS week, we need to look back at what went right, what went wrong, and how we can apply that to our NFL DFS picks this week.

First and foremost – a huge shout-out to Win Daily founder Jason Mezrahi who took home $15,000 on Sunday with a Murray/Hopkins/Lockett game stack that was made possible by using the punt RB1 value we got with Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams.

Interestingly enough, this build was very similar to the Milly Maker winner on DraftKings who scored 279 DK points with a similar Arizona/Seattle game stack – using Wilson/Lockett and Hopkins and the same punt value in Jamaal Williams. The value at RB in this case – allowed them to also grab Davante Adams as a one-off WR and having that Stars/Scrubs approach was a consistent trend found at the top of winning lineups.

Looking at Single Entry games (using the $50 entry, $50K to first) we saw similarly high scores (276 DK points), and much of the same names – Lockett, Adams and Williams – but in this case, they used a cheap Bengals passing stack with Burrow/Boyd to really set them apart.

Looking at the winning builds – the two biggest takeaways were how Stars and Scrubs really dominated the leader boards and it also meant that a lot of chalk hit – especially the bargain RB’s like Williams that made it possible for you to load up on the studs like Adams/Lockett who were consensus top plays on the slate.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 8 First Look:

Looking ahead to this week – we have a very similar top-heavy slate with some obvious elite game environments at the top end of our builds which means the Stars will be at a premium but we really need to wait to see how the value breaks to understand how many Scrubs we can utilize if we want to replicate the Week 7 winning formula.

As of this writing – we have 4 games with 50+ game totals – all of which also have less than a TD spread which is ideal for the high & tight game environments we want to focus on when narrowing our player pool.

• Vikings and Packers – Opened at 55.5
• Titans and Bengals – Opened at 55.5
• Raiders and Browns – Opened at 55.5
• Niners and Seahawks – Opened at 54

The top end of the player pool has some serious star power and the match-ups align with some of the high Vegas totals mentioned above that is going to make paying up for the studs – path #1 on everyone’s NFL DFS picks journey.

The Running Back position has 4 clear top-dogs to choose from – with Alvin Kamara ($8.2K) and Derrick Henry ($8K) being the premium options while we wait to see if both Dalvin Cook ($7.5K) and Aaron Jones ($7.3K) are able to return for this projected shoot-out in Green Bay.

The key with Kamara is going to be the status of Michael Thomas who has a 1-2 week injury timetable with ankle/hamstring injuries that could keep him out again this week versus Chicago. Kamara had 22 total touches (carries/catches) for 148 total yards and while he did not get into the endzone last week, his volume in this Saints offense is going to keep him a top priority for as long as MT is sidelined. The “down” game of just 22.8 DK points may lead people into a false sense of security that they don’t need to pay for Kamara in this spot – but Kamara has the 40+ point upside that made Lockett/Adams slate-breaking plays last week – stay the course and lock him in again this week.

Henry was largely held in check by the Steelers run D last week, but he still managed 75 yards and a TD as one of the most consistent volume backs in the NFL and this week he gets a far more favorable match-up against the Bengals who have up 4.2 YPC to Kareem Hunt a week ago.

Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook are two of the biggest names to watch this week as we get a re-match of a Week 1 showdown between the Packers/Vikings that was at the heart of winning GPP builds. Assuming he is back after the Week 7 bye, Cook steps into the juiciest of match-ups against a Packers team giving up the most FP/G to opposing RB’s and we saw back in Week 1 – he ripped up this Green Bay defense for 2 TD’s and 22 DK points.

The WR’s in that Packers-Vikings game in Davante Adams ($8.8K) and Adam Theilen ($7.2K) provide even more fire power at the top of the WR player pool and a look back at Week 1, shows just the kind of ceiling we are talking about as Adams (44.6 DK points) and Thielen (34 DK points) put on an absolute show.

The Vikings are giving up the third most FP/G to opposing WR’s and getting a WR/Opposing RB stack has been one of the best secondary roster build strategies on DK this season – setting up for a Davante Adams/Dalvin Cook 1-2 punch that is finding itself into many of my first looks.

Overall – the top end of this player pool is, well – STRONG – and I think we could see 2 of these guys in the optimal builds much like we saw in Week 7. The key is – will we have the value to make it work?

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Stack it Up!

Now writing this as a first look puts us at a “disadvantage” in that we don’t have all the late week news that could really change the slate. The other point of view is that you get a first look that is clear and may lead you to plays that will get lost later in the week as folks all pivot to the same popular bargains.

I mentioned the Raiders-Browns game above as a 50+ game total and I will be interested to see how our Adjusted Team Totals tool treats this game once projections are final because on the face of it – we have two exploitable defenses we can attack with some seriously soft-pricing and injury issues that may give us clear paths to value.

The Browns give up the second most FP/G to opposing WR’s and after seeing what Joe Burrow and the Bengals did to this Browns D last week – the pricing on the Raiders feels far too low.

Burrow as a reminder, threw for 406 yards and 3 TD’s, running in another on his way to a massive 38 DK point outing. Tyler Boyd took on 13 targets and hauled in 11 passes for 101 yards and a TD for 30.1 DK points of his own while secondary WR’s like Tee Higgins (18) and AJ Green (15) as well as TE Drew Sample (10) all made their way to double-digit fantasy point outings.

So with that backdrop in mind – go take a look at the Las Vegas Raiders pricing and you start to see why this stack has so much appeal.

Derek Carr ($5.5K) has put up 20+ DK points in three straight weeks and 4 of 6 weeks overall and somehow sits as one of the 5 cheapest starting QB’s on DK. His WR’s – Henry Ruggs ($4.9K) and Nelson Algholor ($4.7K) – both played 75% or more of the snap count in Week 7 and along with TE Darren Waller ($5.6K) – you have multiple stacking partners that can work alongside Carr in the hopes you get a similar script against the Browns that Cincinnati used.

The Browns will now be without “star” WR Odell Beckham Jr. which puts the burden on Jarvis Landry as the clear WR1 now but it also elevates fringe options like Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones into major roles as they played 85% and 70% of the team snaps last week.

Outside of OBJ – the Browns also lost TE Austin Hooper due to an appendectomy and with a Week 9 bye looking for the injury-ravaged Browns, it would seem logical to give Hooper the full break to recover. This could once again open up the TE bargain bin for Harrison Bryant ($3.2K) and David Njoku ($3.8K). Bryant played 77% of the snaps at TE last week, leading the team in red-zone targets and capturing two TD’s – and well, at this price point with no Hooper would be an easy value play once again.

The Raiders/Browns stack offers up a few really appealing options as we get a high total, close spread, exploitable DvP match-up – and all that comes at cheap price tags that allow us to pay up for 2 or more of the studs we mentioned above.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

As we head into the rest of the week – the fantasy football content and news will come at us non-stop and Win Daily is no different – we will have our Game by Game breakdown, Cash Game picks, GPP strategy, cheat sheets and custom projections from our own AETY model that has produced big wins for Jason and the creator, Stix, the last two weeks.

We also will have news that will potentially open up some crazy value for us as the week goes on – but all that is why this first look is SO important. Getting an idea of where you need to focus as the week goes on is huge – it helps you drown out the noise and focus on the process.

Think back to last week – we started the week and Picks And Pivots with a focus on high dollar stacks like Arizona/Seattle but the issue was was that these stacks cost a ton and we needed value.

Now enter Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams value and boom – the builds unfolded as we wanted.

So think about this week – we have 5-6 studs that feel like priority pay ups but we need value to make it work and while the Raiders/Browns are one early path – what other options open up during the week to help us get to where we want?

Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.