NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown

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Another great week for Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Games! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid Week 12 slate (without a lot of terrible games that are easy fades and just a few up-paced games where we really want to invest). Let’s go.

I’ve been under the weather recently so won’t be writing a whole lot about each player. Just DM on Twitter/Discord this week if you need to talk over your build with someone.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
• CHALK REPORT: Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Brian Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST FOUR or FIVE of them in our cash games.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – Always my favorite quarterback play on any slate. There’s really no one as safe and as consistent as Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think he’s a must play in cash this week, but I do think Travis Kelce is. Use one or the other or a combo of the two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.
   
2. Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – By far the highest owned quarterback on this slate in a high total game against a Chargers’ defense that will be missing both Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram. Chris Harris does return, but I don’t think this Chargers’ defense can stop a nosebleed these days, it’s wheels up for Allen and the Bills.
   
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Hello, sweet, sweet savings (on DraftKings). Fitzpatrick gets the nod as Tua was recently ruled out with injury and also will be missing any threat of a quality running attack with no Salvon Ahmed or Myles Gaskin. This matchup against the Jets is the best matchup on paper for opposing quarterbacks (ranked 32 in pass defense DVOA) and will pose no threat for Fitzpatrick getting to 3x value on DraftKings.
   
   As of now, he’s my personal cash game quarterback.
   
   Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

1. Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $11,000 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook in one of the best matchups all season. He’s on fire and a core piece of my DraftKings’ cash build. As for FanDuel, he’s hard to fade there as well (-400 odds to score a TD, lol), but he’s very expensive. If you can afford him, use him.
   
2. James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – Simply priced way too low for the workload he’s likely to receive with Chris Thompson out and Mike Glennon now under center. Cleveland’s defense is not what is was earlier in the season and will again be missing Myles Garret.

The Value Backs

• Nyheim Hines ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD)
• Brian Hill ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD)
• Wayne Gallman ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Honestly, I’ll be locking in two of the above value backs because I’m locking in Travis Kelce and Dalvin Cook. If you don’t want to do that, I suggest you just use Hines and get creative with your build elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

1. Keenan Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Keenan is simply on another planet this year and just insane weekly rapport with Justin Herbert. You all know how much I love to load up slot receivers against Buffalo’s Taron Johnson, so this is a matchup that should be fruitful.
   
   I am interested to see how Sean McDermott and this defense try to scheme away Keenan Allen. There’s no chance they just let Taron Johnson get worked for four straight quarters. I’d imagine McDermott watched the Miami/Buffalo film and took notes on how Brian Flores used safeties to help out their awful slot corner, Nik Needham.
   
   I think I’ll fade Keenan at 20% ownership in GPPs, but I’ll be quite interested in using him in NFL DFS cash games.
   
2. Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – Getting exposure to this Chargers/Bills game is going to be one of my higher priorities in all of my DFS lineups regardless of cash or GPP. You cannot go wrong with Stefon Diggs, especially when John Brown is out.
   
3. Justin Jefferson ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jefferson is likely to be the heaviest owned wide receiver on this slate with Adam Thielen likely missing this game due to COVID-19. I will likely fade him in tournaments but eat the chalk in cash games here against a well below-average Carolina secondary.
   
   I don’t love using he and Dalvin Cook together but many times this year the double stack has been on the winning side of cash game lineups. It’s probably best you eat the chalk here as well.
   
4. DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Simply way too cheap of a WR1 price-tag against the Jets’ secondary.
   
5. Jarvis Landry ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD) – Well, if you saw my whiskey-infused tweet the other night, you know how high I am on Jarvis Landry this weekend, lol. Tre Herndon is literally the only starting cornerback left on this active roster in Jacksonville… that is a problem. Landry should bust out in a massive way on Sunday as long as the Jaguars can keep this one somewhat close.
   
6. Laviska Shenault ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – He’s damn near min price on both sites with a 4.5 receptions prop. Despite what the quarterback situation is here, Shenault should be the focal point of whatever is left of the Jaguars passing game. We just need 10 points, Laviska!
   
   Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Michael Pittman, Gabriel Davis

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – No need to say anything.
   
2. Darren Waller ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – The only tight-end that is anything close to the fantasy producer Kelce is. I’d much rather have Kelce at the slightly higher price-tag, but this should be a great game environment in Atlanta for Darren Waller.
   
3. Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD) – Really my only “value” tight-end this week.
   
   Honorable Mention: Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. New York Giants
5. Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Nyheim Hines
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Laviska Shenault
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Brian Hill
DST: Broncos