NFL DFS: Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown

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Thanks a ton to Adam for filling in the past two weeks while I was out of town for my bachelor party then strictly prepping for the DraftKings World Championship! I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a wonderful holiday season thus far! Lets get back to it and are dive into a nice 10-game Week 16 NFL DFS slate. Also, good luck to everyone who made their season long Championships!!

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 16, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, and Travis Kelce project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST ONE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. It’s surprisingly a decent spread on ownership this week.
• Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – He’s the most pricey quarterback on the slate and likely the highest in ownership. We don’t care about either of those things this week. It’s Patrick Mahomes, at home, against a banged up Atlanta Falcons secondary who are giving up an expected minimum of 290 passing yards. Not to mention the Chiefs just lost their lead running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
   
   Mahomes and this passing attack are going to go nuts.
   
2. Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – If you need some savings, ride the hot hand of Jalen Hurts against Dallas. Both of these teams have been playing and an impressive quick pace and should offer little-to-no defense. Hurts clearly is a more than just a Taysom Hill like quarterback as Pederson and company called over 40 pass plays last week. They trust this kid and so should you.
   
3. Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need a value play, look no further than Trubisky against the 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA). Jacksonville is an absolute trash football team right now and clearly will be trying to lose this game to sure up the #1 overall draft pick.
   
   Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert

Running Backs

1. David Montgomery ($7,700 DK / $7,800 FD) – Extremely valuable on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings, but likely to be the highest owned running back on both sites. Montgomery has been on fire lately and likely won’t be slowed down in this matchup against Jacksonville. I don’t think Montgomery is a must-play (on DraftKings), but he’s likely the top-dog running back on a small Week 16 NFL DFS slate.
   
   Personally, give me the guy below him.
   
2. Miles Sanders ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – On a small slate with not a whole lot of running back talent, I will make sure to roster one of the most talented runners on the slate (toss up between Sanders and Nick Chubb). In this case, I’m going with Miles Sanders on both sites due to the significant discount. Doug Pederson is done getting cute and not unleashing Miles Sanders as he’s racked up over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks.
   
   In a game with no defense, give me all of the Miles Sanders I can get against the 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).
   
3. Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – ALL THE WAY IN ON MELVIN GORDON.
   – Revenge game
   – No Philip Lindsay
   – The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL
   – The Meme Play of Week 16

https://twitter.com/StixPicks/status/1342876494297767942

4. Le’Veon Bell ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – With no CEH, Le’Veon Bell is an easy freesquare this week. Personally, I don’t think he’s a must play either, but this is a very affordable way to get exposure to the best offense on this slate (by a mile). If he’s going to be 40% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership, it won’t hurt to roster Bell. A double-digit, home-favorite running back is something we always invest in.

5. Gio Bernard ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a Houston defense that absolutely bleeds fantasy points to opposing running backs and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Yikes.

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Ridley ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – Too expensive for me, but it’s hard not to love the only game in town for the Atlanta Falcons, especially when they’ll be chasing points all game long.
   
2. Allen Robinson ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – His pricing on FanDuel makes zero sense so absolutely lock him in over there and likely do the same on DraftKings. This is a must-win game for the Bears (I find it very hard to believe this game will even be close) but they’ll get Allen Robinson going early in this game and take advantage of the worst secondary in the NFL.
   
3. Jarvis Landry ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Keep an eye on this game’s status with Cleveland having COVID-19 issues, but if it goes, Landry is in another elite spot on the inside of the Jets’ 29th ranked pass defense. Cleveland is in a must-win game and won’t hesitate to score at will to start this game.
   
4. Robert Woods ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Cooper Kupp ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – We have picked on Seattle’s secondary all year long and I refuse to quit now after a few poor weeks from the Rams’ offense. McVay will be on a mission to right the ship this week and I’m expecting a big output for the Rams’ passing attack with Cam Akers out with an injury.
   
5. Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) & AJ Green ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – No Tyler Boyd = load up on Tee Higgins and/or AJ Green. I strongly prefer the upside in Tee Higgins who will see a lot of Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, but you can certainly punt down to AJ Green as well if you don’t use Higgins. Houston’s defense as a whole is trash.
   
6. Jamison Crowder ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Not in love with the play, but if this game stays on schedule for Sunday, Crowder’s price is way too low for the expected target share against a poor Cleveland secondary.
   
   Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is OUT), Cam Sims

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce and it’s a matchup against the Falcons (27th in DVOA against opposing tight ends), but most of all, it’s Travis Kelce.
   
2. Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK ONLY) – He needs to be priced up over $6K. If you can’t afford Kelce, Mark Andrews is a clear number two option here at the tight end position.
   
3. Logan Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Helluva price hike over the past few weeks but this dude is just an absolute target machine (regardless of who plays QB). Better yet, Terry McLaurin is likely out for this matchup. Thomas will be a busy man on Sunday.
   
   Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Chicago Bears
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Washington Football Team
4. Houston Texans
5. Carolina Panthers
6. Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Jamison Crowder
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Miles Sanders
DST: Denver Broncos

Good luck this week!