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Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.

In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:

  • New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
  • New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
  • Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.

Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.

P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).

The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.

Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.

Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

  • Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
  • Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
  • Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
  • Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
  • Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFL

Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.

In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:

  • New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
  • New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
  • Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.

Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.

P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).

The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.

Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.

Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

  • Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
  • Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
  • Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
  • Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
  • Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFLPremium

Divisional Round: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Divisional Round: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Divisional Round: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFLPremium

Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 48, Chargers: -4.5

You could not ask for a much better matchup for a week 18 showdown contest than this one. A “win and in” scenario between the Chargers and Raiders in primetime. The Chargers when “on” do everything well so you are going to have to mix and match throughout multiple builds to get the correct combination of players on LA’s side of the ball and lean heavily on script to make your builds. The Raiders however might be the definition of the Mendoza line in the NFL. They are room temperature water and as boring as it gets. But, there are some injury questions that could either free up value or create opportunities on the Vegas side. This should be a close one so you are going to need to play multiple lineups in this game more than you normally would so try to avoid the single bullet approach, lower your buy-in amount and increase your contest volume.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Captains:

Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $17,400: 18-20%

The clear-cut chalk option on the evening is Austin Ekeler coming in at almost 20% in our projections and for good reason. Ekeler is about as close to game script proof as you can get and at this point in the season, I have no need to explain to you just how high his upside can be. If you choose to plant your flag on Ekeler as your main captain or if you intend on only entering one lineup just be sure to leave more salary than you usually would on the table or fade another player or two in your lineup that you know will be a popular option in order to increase your chances of having a unique build that will not get split with 100 of your closest friends in the even you end up on top.

Pivot: Justin Herbert, $17,100: 11-13%

With Herbert’s price being so close to Ekelers I think that most people will simply opt to go a few hundred more dollars at captain and Herbert will be a fair bit lower in ownership than Ekeler so I like the idea of using him as a pivot. He has been all over the place this season with 5 games scoring 30 or more DK points and 6 games under 20. If you are running Juston out as your captain you are clearly banking on him having a ceiling game so be mindful of leaning heavily on the Chargers passing game for your flex pieces so that you can get the most out of your build.

Contrarian #1: Mike Williams, $10,800: 5-7%

If you were to look at the little red 3 next to the Chargers receivers you would be forgiven for wanting to shy away from the Chargers receivers just a bit tonight. But if you dig just a little deeper you will see that the Raiders are near the bottom of the league against #2 receivers and are bottom 8 in the league against the deep ball. Mike has been inconsistent, to say the least after a hot start but that has more to do with Herbert’s inconsistent play and injuries than anything else. If good Herbert makes an appearance in this do-or-die scenario the benefactor will most likely be Williams and his sub 8% ownership.

Contrarian #2: Darren Waller, $13,800: 5-7%

It would be understandable if you did not realize this but it has been 13 games since Waller last found the endzone. Waller has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and has missed the last 5 games dealing with a knee injury. We need to wait and confirm the active status and he is almost assuredly less than 100% so be mindful of that. If he does go, the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL against tight ends and he will be looking at likely double-digit targets in this scenario. This has the potential to completely flame out, so be cautious and do not go overweight on him. But even a 75% Waller can have a huge day at lower than usual ownership and break this slate wide open.

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $11,700: 11-13%

Another prime spot against a Chargers weakness and yet another injury that will likely drive ownership down just enough to make Jacobs a viable captain play. The Chargers have had the worst batch of interior run stoppers all season and have been getting gashed by virtually any reasonably good running back all season when the script allows it. This is another one of those high-risk/high-reward situations and if you are using Jacobs at captain it is likely due to the Chargers passing attack not clicking on all cylinders and or this game staying close so be sure to build appropriately.

Bonus Play: Hunter Renfrow (6-8%)deserves an honorable mention here simply because if Waller struggles or reaggravates his injury Renfrow becomes the de facto #1 option for the Raiders and will be useful in almost every game scenario.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Flex plays:

  1. Austin Ekeler
  2. Justin Herbert
  3. Keenan Allen
  4. Derek Carr
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Hunter Renfrow
  7. Josh Jacobs
  8. Mike Williams
  9. Zay Jones
  10. Nathan Peterman
  11. Jared Cook
  12. Justin Jackson
  13. Jalen Guyton
  14. Joshua Palmer
  15. Chargers
  16. Dustin Hopkins
  17. Daniel Carlson
  18. Raiders
  19. Foster Moreau
  20. Bryan Edwards
  21. DeSean Jackson
  22. Peyton Barber
  23. Tre’ McKitty
  24. Stephen Anderson
  25. Jalen Richard
  26. Joshua Kelley

Kickers and defenses:

With a 48 point total and a pretty low spread, I am less inclined to use either of the defenses in this contest but I do not mind occasionally putting the Raiders in a flex spot or two if you are expecting Herbert to have one of his inconsistent games where he struggles with accuracy and maybe throws a pick or two. For the same reason (close spread) and am more inclined to use the kickers in the flex as a final piece. The prices for both are very reasonable and kicking is likely going to be the reason either team wins or losses in a divisional contest like this. Coaches tend to tighten up and play more conservatively in scenarios where a single unneeded risk will lead to a loss and getting knocked out of the playoffs.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2022 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLPremium

Week 18 of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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