185 Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9.If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you. Vegas Script: Total: 48, Chargers: -4.5You could not ask for a much better matchup for a week 18 showdown contest than this one. A “win and in” scenario between the Chargers and Raiders in primetime. The Chargers when “on” do everything well so you are going to have to mix and match throughout multiple builds to get the correct combination of players on LA’s side of the ball and lean heavily on script to make your builds. The Raiders however might be the definition of the Mendoza line in the NFL. They are room temperature water and as boring as it gets. But, there are some injury questions that could either free up value or create opportunities on the Vegas side. This should be a close one so you are going to need to play multiple lineups in this game more than you normally would so try to avoid the single bullet approach, lower your buy-in amount and increase your contest volume.WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Captains:Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $17,400: 18-20%The clear-cut chalk option on the evening is Austin Ekeler coming in at almost 20% in our projections and for good reason. Ekeler is about as close to game script proof as you can get and at this point in the season, I have no need to explain to you just how high his upside can be. If you choose to plant your flag on Ekeler as your main captain or if you intend on only entering one lineup just be sure to leave more salary than you usually would on the table or fade another player or two in your lineup that you know will be a popular option in order to increase your chances of having a unique build that will not get split with 100 of your closest friends in the even you end up on top.Pivot: Justin Herbert, $17,100: 11-13%With Herbert’s price being so close to Ekelers I think that most people will simply opt to go a few hundred more dollars at captain and Herbert will be a fair bit lower in ownership than Ekeler so I like the idea of using him as a pivot. He has been all over the place this season with 5 games scoring 30 or more DK points and 6 games under 20. If you are running Juston out as your captain you are clearly banking on him having a ceiling game so be mindful of leaning heavily on the Chargers passing game for your flex pieces so that you can get the most out of your build.Contrarian #1: Mike Williams, $10,800: 5-7%If you were to look at the little red 3 next to the Chargers receivers you would be forgiven for wanting to shy away from the Chargers receivers just a bit tonight. But if you dig just a little deeper you will see that the Raiders are near the bottom of the league against #2 receivers and are bottom 8 in the league against the deep ball. Mike has been inconsistent, to say the least after a hot start but that has more to do with Herbert’s inconsistent play and injuries than anything else. If good Herbert makes an appearance in this do-or-die scenario the benefactor will most likely be Williams and his sub 8% ownership.Contrarian #2: Darren Waller, $13,800: 5-7%It would be understandable if you did not realize this but it has been 13 games since Waller last found the endzone. Waller has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and has missed the last 5 games dealing with a knee injury. We need to wait and confirm the active status and he is almost assuredly less than 100% so be mindful of that. If he does go, the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL against tight ends and he will be looking at likely double-digit targets in this scenario. This has the potential to completely flame out, so be cautious and do not go overweight on him. But even a 75% Waller can have a huge day at lower than usual ownership and break this slate wide open.Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $11,700: 11-13%Another prime spot against a Chargers weakness and yet another injury that will likely drive ownership down just enough to make Jacobs a viable captain play. The Chargers have had the worst batch of interior run stoppers all season and have been getting gashed by virtually any reasonably good running back all season when the script allows it. This is another one of those high-risk/high-reward situations and if you are using Jacobs at captain it is likely due to the Chargers passing attack not clicking on all cylinders and or this game staying close so be sure to build appropriately.Bonus Play: Hunter Renfrow (6-8%)deserves an honorable mention here simply because if Waller struggles or reaggravates his injury Renfrow becomes the de facto #1 option for the Raiders and will be useful in almost every game scenario.WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Flex plays:Austin EkelerJustin HerbertKeenan AllenDerek CarrDarren WallerHunter RenfrowJosh JacobsMike WilliamsZay JonesNathan PetermanJared CookJustin JacksonJalen GuytonJoshua PalmerChargersDustin HopkinsDaniel CarlsonRaidersFoster MoreauBryan EdwardsDeSean JacksonPeyton BarberTre’ McKittyStephen AndersonJalen RichardJoshua KelleyKickers and defenses:With a 48 point total and a pretty low spread, I am less inclined to use either of the defenses in this contest but I do not mind occasionally putting the Raiders in a flex spot or two if you are expecting Herbert to have one of his inconsistent games where he struggles with accuracy and maybe throws a pick or two. For the same reason (close spread) and am more inclined to use the kickers in the flex as a final piece. The prices for both are very reasonable and kicking is likely going to be the reason either team wins or losses in a divisional contest like this. Coaches tend to tighten up and play more conservatively in scenarios where a single unneeded risk will lead to a loss and getting knocked out of the playoffs. It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2022 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
