Welcome to my preview for the Championship Sunday DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
The first thing about this game is the total movement from the open because the spread has stayed steady at 7.5. It started at 51 in total and is up to 53 since the lines were released. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:
Worth noting as well for the Titans they are playing their fourth-straight road game. History has not been kind to teams playing four consecutive road games and there is a reason why the regular-season schedule does not create situations where teams are forced to play four road games in a row.
It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($7,700/$9,500), puts on an absolute clinic. Before the divisional playoff game (when he scored 40-plus), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best quarterback on the two-game slate, but that is why he is the most expensive. The Titans finished the regular season allowing the sixth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks to quarterbacks.
As for Ryan Tannehill ($5,500/$7,700), he has the tall task of going up versus the Chiefs defense that during the last four weeks of the season allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The best approach in deploying Tannehill on this slate would be to play him in lineups that do not feature the Titans being able to run the ball effectively and are forced to play catch-up versus the Chiefs offense. Tannehill back in Week 10 did score over 19 fantasy points when he completed just 13 passes. However, the home/road splits for Tannehill still are always concerning so on the road in an extremely tough environment I do not see myself rostering too much Tannehill considering Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,200/$7,600) is in a better spot and is cheaper on both sites.
The one thing to consider is Tannehill is he probably is the only quarterback that I would consider playing naked. Tannehill has averaged five rushing attempts per game over his last three starts. Also, the Chiefs will be without Juan Thornhill and likely pass-rusher Chris Jones which makes Tannehill much more appealing.
For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,100/$4,400) are the most expensive on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel. They are worth paying up for in GPPs and could see suppressed ownership with Mahomes being heavily owned. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill could get sacked a ton – 31% of pressures on Tannehill result in sacks. That the highest rate among the league’s starters.
The Titans are dirt-cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings and honestly, for that reason, they become a viable option. Also, it only takes one turnover for their DST to be a factor and over the past two weeks, they have had a DST score. Most people avoid stacking their quarterback versus the DST they are playing, but in this case, it could make sense; play Mahomes and the Tennesse DST on DraftKings to save the salary.
Damien Williams ($7,000/$7,600) is the second-most expensive running back on the slate on DraftKings but is cheaper than Aaron Jones on FanDuel. W do not get the price discount this week with Williams but of all the Chiefs skill players, he has the most projectable role. Not to mention during the regular season the Titans allowed the third-most receptions to backs. He probably will not score three touchdowns again, but the Titans did allow the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs over the regular season. We have seen the Chiefs rely on Williams in the postseason in the past, so I am confident going back to him as the lead running back on the team with the highest implied team total (30.25).
As for Derrick Henry ($8,700/$9,800), well we all know the story of his production by now. I have faded Henry over the last few weeks and that was against even better run defenses in the Patriots and Ravens. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the 2019 regular season. If the Titans are to win this game it will be on the shoulders or QUADs of Henry. You cannot full-on fade him in this spot, even at his price. Teams know they have to stop Henry and up to this point, nobody has been able to execute. In 2019 including the playoffs Henry vs stacked boxes ranks first in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.
The Tennesse Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season versus 12 personnel, which according to SharpFootball Stats in that formation they are allowing 8.8 yards per attempt and a 57% success rate from passes in that formation. Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. This is consistent with the Titans’ defense being weak versus tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and third-most receiving touchdowns during the regular season. So yes wheels are indeed up for Travis Kelce ($7,100/$7,800).
Blake Bell ($2,800/$4,000) also becomes an interesting punt play if Kelce is limited at all by his injury. Bell ran 15 routes last week and had two targets. As for the Tennessee tight ends, it’s extremely tough to trust any of them in this spot this week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,400/$5,600) could end up being a not only a value but a great leverage play if the two elite tight ends on the slate do not fire. Smith leads the NFL in yards after the catch per target per @Rotounderworld. He also leads the Titans in targets over the past two weeks.
As for the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill ($7,200/$7,400) seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Hill sees time from the slot and Logan Ryan has been beaten badly by speed guys this season. Also, we saw the speedy Marquise Brown have a super productive day versus this secondary just one week ago. Last week I wanted to be overweight on Kelce, but I think this week is the week to be overweight on Hill. Hill is cheaper than Davante Adams ($7,900/$8,300) on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Via Arrowheadpride.com “The Titans have struggled to defend elite receiving weapons. The last time they saw one was in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Michael Thomas finished with 136 yards on 12 catches and a score. The week before, Tennessee allowed Texans’ Deandre Hopkins to rack up 119 yards on six receptions. The back half of their schedule did not feature many elite passing offenses — but they lost in the two matchups where they faced one after the Chiefs.”
As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($3,800/$4,900). Hardman does not see a ton of snaps, (just eight routes ran last week), but he had four targets. When he is on the field the Chiefs are looking for ways to get him the ball. The last time he played the Titans he scored a 63-yard touchdown. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He is the target in GPPs, while in cash formats, I am fine going with Sammy Watkins ($4,600/$5,200).
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($5,200)/($6,800) will probably be a pretty popular option in GPPs, but the matchup is extremely tough. The Chiefs rank second-best versus the position during the regular season (only the Patriots were better). At his price, he is someone I am definitely looking to fade. I prefer both slot options for the Titans in receivers Tajae Sharpe ($3,100/$4,700) and Adam Humphries ($3,000/$5,000). If Humphries plays I favor him, and obviously if he misses I want to move to Sharpe. The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers.
In this game, the total has moved up from 45 to 46.5. The spread has bounced around anywhere between 6.5-7.5. Historically, since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 220 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6.5 to 8.5 points. In these games:
Aaron Rodgers ($6,100/$8,000) has been one of the most matchup dependent quarterbacks this season. Against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him. I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo. He is the cheapest QB on both sites and showed back in Week 12 versus the Packers he can be extremely efficient. He only completed 14 passes in that game, but still threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 30 passing attempts per game at home this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last three contests.
I do also think that the Packers DST ($2,400/$4,000) is the safest pay-down option on both sites. They are a ton of playmakers across the Green Bay defense that include Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. They all can cause stress to offenses. I am not trying to play the 49ers DST ($2,900/$4,600) especially on FanDuel where they are the most expensive. Green Bay was second in fewest giveaways per game in 2019.
After his big game last week the price on Tevin Coleman ($5,700/$6,500) has gone way back up. But keep in mind that his 22 carries were the highest of his career. The matchup is extremely juicy versus a terrible Packers’ run defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA during the regular season with the second-worst defensive line in the league, yielding 4.96 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, it is important to note that it was the touchdowns that elevated Coleman, while Raheem Mostert ($4,300/$5,800) still saw 12 carries.
Mostert’s price on DraftKings is very low making him a considerable cash game option. I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,400/$5,000) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his touches hr could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Coleman’s performance.
There is not a lot of injury news when it comes to this slate specifically, but one thing to note is the Packers are coming in extremely healthy. The only players coming in questionable are fullback Danny Vitale and cornerback Tramon Williams. The return of Vitale could potentially be huge for running back Aaron Jones ($6,700/$7,800). The Packers this season have a 51% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. I think if Vitale plays that could be a significant boost to the Packers rushing attack.
Also, it needs to be said that in the previous matchup where Jones was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries, that was when DJ Jones was still playing for SF. He went on IR after Week 14. Weeks 15-17 the 49ers allowed a 58% success rate and 4.8 yards per carry from 12 personnel. With more tight ends and the potential for a fullback look for the Packers to go big to run the football to limit the 49ers’ pass rush.
Additionally, I think that leveraging the late-game swap with a guy like Jamaal Williams ($3,800/$4,800) will be extremely important. Williams scored 15 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced and he had a season-high eight targets and seven receptions in the passing game. Rodgers has made a note of how important chemistry is entering this playoff game and he does have a solid rapport with Williams. When targeting Williams Rodgers has a 129.4 passer rating with a 90% completion percentage. If the Packers are trailing in this game, as the spread would project we could see more Williams assist with pass protection and play more third-downs.
Tyler Ervin ($3,100/$4,700) is mostly a punt play but is returning kicks and punts for Green Bay so I like the GPP stack with the Packers DST. Ervin has 4.41 speed and it’s a college homecoming from the former San Jose State Spartan. The pre-snap motion could be integral to Matt LaFleur’s gameplan, and Ervin has become LaFleur’s go-to motion man over the past several weeks.
One of the biggest weaknesses of the Green Bay defense is defending against passes in-between the numbers. According to Sharp Football Stats over the second half of the season, passes in-between the numbers had a 56% success rate. Outside the numbers drop down to 41%. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from George Kittle ($5,800)/($7,000). The last time played Green Bay he went for over 125 yards and a score. His price is way too low. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900)/($5,500) is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Deebo Samuel ($5,500)/$6,300) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)/($5,400) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past two weeks.
There are definitely trust issues between the lower-end wide receivers for the Packers and the coaching staff. After Allen Lazard ($4,400/$5,100) left last week’s game you would have expected another receiver to take his place right? Nope, the Packers instead opted to use more 13 personnel with no wide receiver outside of Adams seeing more than one target. With Lazard off the injury report, all of these fringy sub-4k Green Bay receivers should be faded for the most part. Jake Kumerow ($3,200/$4,700) is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and ran the second-most routes of any receiver on the Packers.
Adams is not an absolute lock to smash coming off his best game of the season. The last time he came off a 30-point game he finished with just 11.1 fantasy points the next week. Adams had just 43 receiving yards the last time he played SF but salvaged the day with a touchdown. As I mentioned the Packers used more three-tight end sets so Jace Sternberger ($2,500)/($4,000) (season-high 36 snaps last week) possesses explosiveness and his 44% snap share was higher than Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan. Sternberger wears 87 so perhaps Rodgers thinks he is throwing to Jordy Nelson.
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DK ($10,000) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey is the best fantasy RB in the game and has a chance to finish with over 1,000 yards this season for both rushing and receiving. He is only 67 yards short on the receiving end, so expect the Panthers to let him rack up the receptions and eclipse that mark. In a week with plenty of uncertainty, Panthers’ interim coach Perry Fewell has already stated he has no plans to pull CMC early in Week 17.
DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)
Zeke should be involved in the Cowboys offense early andoften, and while his workload and productionthis year haven’t been up to his usual standards, he’s still running theball well when given the chance. Just last week against a tough run defense,he had 20 touches and played on 97 percent of the snaps, rushing for 84 yards.Now he gets the lackluster Washington run defense (ranked 28th inthe NFL) in a game the Cowboys should win. He’s one of the top cash game plays forWeek 17.
Also consider:Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb
DK ($6,900) FD ($7,300)
The Colts wrap up the season against the Jaguars, who have given up 5.14 yards per carry this season and more than 30 fantasy points a game to opposing runners – the second most in the NFL on both counts. This Jags defense allowed Mack to gash them for 109 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in Week 11, and Mack’s 7.8 yards per attempt during that game ranks as the RB’s highest since Week 6 of 2017. He’s a great GPP play on a team that hasn’t been throwing it too well.
DK ($4,900) FD ($6,500)
Michel should tear this Miami run defense to shreds, andhis price is obscenely low on DK. He’s a viable GPP play on both sits, however,and should have pretty low ownership on FD where he’s priced between PhillipLindsay and Damien Williams. I think his upside is a little higher than both thosecapable backs, even with the crowded backfield in New England, because he couldeasily rush for two or three TDs. We’ve been burned by him before, but if youcan stand a little risk, this feels like a big Michel week.
Also consider: Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay
DK ($8,700) FD ($9,300)
Barkley doesn’t have the best matchup on paper, but the Giants are using him an awful lot lately and he’s shown explosiveness that’s been missing for most of 2019, averaging 40.1 DraftKings points over his past two games. The volume is there, and the price is still affordable. I’m in love with Barkley as a low-owned contrarian play in a week that might have the DFS masses looking elsewhere.
DK ($7,100) FD (7,300)
Drake is coming off another monster game where he carried the ball 24 times for 166 yards and two TDs, adding 3-18-0 receiving in a stunning win over the Seahawks. He now looks to cap off an unexpectedly productive season in a Week 17 road game against the Rams. It’s not a great spot, but we’ve seen Drake rise to the occasion in a tough matchup before, and there’s a lot of free agency money at stake for him.
Also consider: Austin Ekeler, Devonta Freeman
DK ($4,700) FD ($6,400)
Williams was the workhorse last week for the Chiefs and hegets a favorable home matchup against a faltering division rival. The Chargersallow 110.3 rushing yards per game, making Williams a high-upside play in aleading role.
DK ($3,900) FD ($5,100)
Thompson got some involvement in the running game lastweek, carrying the ball eight times for 34 yards to go along with his usualpassing game role (4-18-0 on four targets). His skill set fits in nicely for thismatchup with the Cowboys, and we could see him get a lot more targets his wayin what should be a negative game script. The price is right on DK, but I’llstay away on FD.
Additional plays: Mike Boone, Kareem Hunt, Kerryon Johnson
Goal: 47.5, Prize: 2x
I am looking at three RBs from this game to meet this modest total of 47.5 to pay 2x, including Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. If you are skittish about playing three RBs from this game, feel free to mix in a WR for Chubb or Hunt, but I really like the volume of all these backs here.
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DK ($7,500) FD ($7,400)
Normally, lock-n-load cash game RB plays are either expensiveor really cheap, but we’ve got an excellent value play in Carson that’s prettysafe and won’t cost you too much on either site. With Rashad Penny done for theyear, Carson will get elite volume in a smash spot – making this a prime opportunityto eat the chalk and move on with the rest of your lineup.
DK ($7,600) FD ($7,700)
Last week I reiterated that Fournette is a weekly lock for 20+touches, and now he’s seen a total of 29 targets over the past three weeks. He’sfacing an Oakland defense that’s been especially vulnerable to rushing TDs overthe past few weeks and there’s no game script that kills this guy’sinvolvement. His floor is still a robust 12-15 DK points and he’s got 25-30-pointupside on both sites.
Also consider:Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry (questionable)
DK ($10,000) FD ($10,400)
McCaffrey got back over 20 DK points last week but faces a toughSeattle defense that’s among the top 10 in the league against the run. He’sstill priced at $10K or more on both sites so I’ll be avoiding him in cashgames – putting him on the radar in GPPs where we could get an elite player ina tougher matchup with low ownership.
DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)
We’ve lost some of the 20+ upsides that Cook showed us early in the season, but this is a great chance for him to get right and bust out with a big game. Cook said he came out of Week 14 feeling “healthy,” which was a concern because of the chest injury. He’s now scored TDs in four straight and should be a focal point of the offense with a 25-point upside facing the Chargers.
DK ($7,700) FD ($8,300)
Barkley represents decent GPP value on the main slate in awinnable matchup. If he can’t break out for a big day against the Dolphins, I’mafraid he’s just not what we’ve been hoping he’d be for this Giants offense. He’shad just three games with 20+ DK points this year and just two 100-yard rushinggames, but Week 15 is his best matchup of the season.
Also consider: Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,800)
Jonesexploited a weak Redskins run defense to compilea season-high rushing yardage total last week, rushing 16 times for 134and a TD, adding 6-58-0 on seven targets in the passing game. He’ll be a focalpoint of the Packers offense this week against the Bears as well, and he’s gotmassive upside despite what I would hope would be lower ownership in a “red”matchup.
DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200)
I included him in this space last week and he went nuts, rushing forover 100 yards and adding 5-112-1 receiving for 37.3 DK points! I really thinkthat Ekeler is matchup-proof and needs to be included in GPPs at his pricepoint, regardless of the presence of Melvin Gordon. IF anything, he could see afew more targets this week against a decent Vikings run defense.
Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon
DK ($5,600) FD ($6,400)
I don’t see a scenario where Lindsay doesn’t get a lot of touchesfacing the Chiefs, so he’s a viable option in GPPs and even some cash games inWeek 15. It’s been a while since he’s had a GPP-winning breakout (Week 5 atLAC), but this is a spot where I’m comfortable buying shares of him and gettingahead of the field at 25-30 percent personal ownership.
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,800)
The price has come up since his big Week 13 performance (and he’sa tough fit on FD at $6,800), but White looks like he could have some scoringupside this week against a bad Bengals defense. It’s possible Belichick dialsdown into a running game heavier on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, but White hasmaintained enough involvement (aside from the Dallas game) to warrant considerationin GPPs on DK.
DK ($4,500) FD ($5,500)
Laird is not a stud running back who’s probablygoing to get you 25+ this week, but he’s really the only guy the Dolphins trustright now and he’s in a decent matchup. He rushed for 48 yards on 15carries against the Jets last week and hauled in 4-38-0 on five targets. TheGiants are similarly putrid in their defensive depth and could see Laird notch75 plus total yards and a score – making him a decent value play in allformats.
Additional plays: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis (if Henry inactive or limited)
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Goal: 48.5, Prize: 2x
Lets go with what could be some heavy volume for a couple of RBs in good spots in this Week 15 game with Phillip Lindsay and LeSean McCoy, adding Tyreek Hill to the mix. These guys should easily total 48.5 fantasy points barring an injury to one of them.
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DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!
DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)
Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)
Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.
Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)
DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)
Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.
DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)
Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.
DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)
Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.
Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite
DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)
Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.
DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)
Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.
Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram
DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)
McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.
DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)
It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.
Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson
Goal: 67.5, Prize: 3x
Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman and D.J. Moore are in great spots to bust out for huge fantasy days this week (especially with Greg Olsen out for Carolina), so go big or go home with this 3x bet!
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DK ($10,500) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey scored another 30+ DK points last week and while the price came up on FD to $11K, he’s still affordable on both sites. At some point, you’d think the heavy volume would diminish, but it doesn’t. He’s a fine play at home versus Washington in Week 13.
DK ($7,400) FD ($7,600)
Barkley should be a featured weapon Sunday against the Packers (ina game that will be played in rainy weather) and should get a boatload ofcarriers and usage – the red zone included. Green Bay struggled to defend therun and while he’s far from the fantasy ceiling and floor of McCaffrey, he’s oneof the best cash game options we have, especially at the reduced price on FD.
DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)
Jones makes sense as a bargain cash gameplay on DK and has an excellent matchup in what should be a positive game script against the Giants. The weather could force the Packers to run the ball a lot more. I wouldn’t play both Barkley and Jones together, but both should get plenty of opportunities to produce.
Also consider:Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Williams
DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)
The shoulder injury has kept him limited again this week, but he’sstill a GPP option facing the league’s worst defense against RBs. No need to overthinkthis – if he’s active and not seriously limited, he’s worth using in GPPs.
DK ($7,600) FD ($8,600)
We’ll keep an eye on news about Henry (hamstring) over theweekend, but the questionable tag shouldn’t diminish our enthusiasm for him inGPPs – especially because he doesn’t have much competition for carries in theTitans offense. He’s got 347 rushing yards and four TDs over his last twogames.
DK ($5,400) FD ($5,800)
Jordan Howard could be back this week, but Miles Sanders stillmakes sense in GPPs. His speed and usage in all aspects of the Eagles offensecould see him flourish against a poor Miami defense. I wouldn’t recommend him incash games unless Howard is inactive, but he’s going to make many of my GPPbuilds regardless.
Also consider: Todd Gurley,Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Ronald Jones
DK ($7,300) FD($7,000)
It’s not a great matchup, but I’m also not convinced the Jags areready to get away from their current offensive style with Nick Foles undercenter. I expect them to try to grind out a win vs. the Bucs and do so with alot of shorter passes and plenty of involvement from Fournette.
DK ($5,700) FD ($6,700)
Melvin Gordon has typically struggled against the Broncos, so wecould see a few more touches and targets for Ekeler in Week 13. He’s a muchbetter play on DK with the full-point PPR, and the upside is still there becauseof his big-play capability.
Also consider: Nick Chubb, MarkIngram, Tevin Coleman
DK ($4,800) FD ($5,800)
McCoy and Darrell Williams will shoulder the load for the Chiefswith Damien Williams looking unlikely to suit up this week. I like McCoy alittle better, but Darrel Dubs is seven cheaper at $4,400 on DK.
DK ($4,500) FD($5,400)
Guice has a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers (ranked 30th againstRBs), and he should probably receive more touches than Adrian Peterson. Ownershipin GPPs should be down and we could see a breakthrough performance for theembattled young back this week.
Additional plays: Darrel Williams, Jalen Richard (if Jacobs is out or limited)
Goal: 56.5, Prize: 2x
Let’s go with both RBs and a WR for this matchup in the rain. Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones should see increased volume and Davante Adams if healthy) can round out our choices.
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DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)
With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.
DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)
If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)
We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.
DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)
Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.
DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)
The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)
The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.
DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)
The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.
Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery
DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)
This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)
The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.
Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay
DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)
Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.
DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)
Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.
DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)
Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.
DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)
Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.
DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)
Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.
Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray
Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x
Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.
We’ve got your NFL Week 10 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!
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The Panthers have been limiting McCaffrey’s practiceworkload, but the stud RB’s Week 10 status is not in doubt following a coupleof maintenance days. Fantasy’s No. 1 running back in every aspect, he has a favorablematchup facing a Packers defense that’s been a sieve to running back production.Lock this man in for your cash games and any other formats you see fit.
Barkley gets a great matchup vs. the Jets (who allow 18-20fantasy points to RBs, on average) and remains the consensus No. 1 or 2 fantasyRB heading into Week 10. He’s involved in the entire offense and sees upwardsof 8-10 targets each week – making him a lock for double-digit production evenwithout the running game clicking.
If you’re averse to spending top dollar at both RB spots incash, Henry offers a considerable discount from the aforementioned backs andhas nearly as much upside against a Chiefs defense that’s among the worst inthe NFL at defending RBs.
Saints head coach Sean Payton had already noted that Kamara would return following his two-game absence, but on Thursday the electric RB practiced in full, putting him higher on my list of GPP plays for Week 10. Latavius Murray will still get work and his excellent performance in Kamara’s stead, and has earned a touch more standalone work, but Kamara is a special player who can take over a game and should eviscerate the Falcons defense. He won’t see the ownership of Barkley or McCaffrey, making him a better tournament play in Saints stacks with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.
Ingram is one of many options for the Ravens who could blowup in this game, so I’m not too high on him for cash games, but he makes an excellentGPP play because of the opponent (theBengals rank around the third-worst in terms of passing and running defenseDVOA), and his ability to run for over 100 yards. I won’t be at fullexposure, but I should be ahead of the field.
Montgomery is finally having the type of production we expectedhim to earlier in the season, in part because Matt Nagy is using him properly. Montgomery has seen 48 touches over the last two gamesand has now totaled 16 or more touches in five of the last seven games. That workhorserole means his favorable matchup with the Lions means he’s a lock for top 10-15fantasy production, with Top 5 upside. He’s part of my core plays at RB in GPPs,even though he might get chalky.
Mack makes for a great GPP ply against a poor opponent thisweek, and we could expect maybe a little lower ownership because of the high price.Without the cake matchup, he wouldn’t have nearly as much upside as the playershe’s priced alongside, but the Dolphins yield the most points to fantasy RBsand the Colts should be more ground-focused if it’s Brian Hoyer under center.
Also consider: DeVonta Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams
TheGiants run defense is getting better, but they still have major issues. TheJets do too, but I think we’re in the clear with Bell moving forward, as the tradedeadline has come and gone and he’s the best man for the job despite his 3.3YPC this season. He had a brief injury scare at the beginning of the week, butthe MRI revealed nothing significant and he’s supposed to go on Sunday. Staytuned, but consider him as a contrarian play with plenty of upside on bothsites.
Johnson presents as a very high risk, moderate-to-high rewardand I can’t imagine he’ll be on everybody’s list of top plays, so most will beunderweight on him. So if you’re trying to take down a large-field GPP, he’s wortha look as a low-owned option with plenty of upside. The Bucs have the NFL’stop-ranked run defense, but the Cards spread the field and run the football, soexpect some plays drawn up for Johnson to get some easy completions from KylerMurray and rack up the points. A much safer play on DK because of the full-PPRand nicer price.
After a relatively disappointing week at Denver, Chubb could be off the radar for most owners, especially with Kareem Hunt finally available as a change of pace back. He has a tough matchup, but after seeing him rush for 131 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots, I think his results depend more on game flow, big plays and goal line opportunities. The Bills defense hasn’t been wonderful the past couple of weeks and has shown itself to be more vulnerable against the run. If the Browns don’t get behind by multiple TDs, we could see heavy doses of Chubb and enough production to warrant his usage in some GPPs.
Also consider: Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Ty Johnson
The rookie RB is coming into his own, with scores inconsecutive weeks and a season-high 20 carries vs. Washington in Week 9. He’sone of the best value plays of the slate and makes sense as a flex play in cashgames and one of your core plays in GPPs.
He’s an option because he outperformed Ty Johnson last weekand could be seeing a larger workload against the Bears. There’s plenty of riskin this matchup, but McKissic gained 32 yards on just four carries in Week 9and should have the requisite opportunities to make an impact as a pass-catcher.
With Miami’s Bad Boy (teammate Mark Walton) slated to servea four-game suspension, the enigmatic and dynamic Ballage figures to see anexpanded role in Dolphins offense. It’s a team – as a whole – that doesn’talways allow for the most favorable game flows and a commitment to the running game,but Ballage is cheap and has given us monster games before. He’s in a spot todominate the touches in the backfield in Week 10.
Additional plays: Giovani Bernard, Kareem Hunt
Pick the Players what will get the most Fantasy Points
Goal: 54.5, Prize: 2x
Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell and Golden Tate
Going with the RB theme, we can start both RBs in the Giants-Jets game, as both should have plenty of opportunities ion both the running and passing game on Sunday. Pairing them with PPR maven WR Golden Tate could help you get 2x or more on your bet.
I’m excited to offer up some of my favorite Week 8 DFS plays for NFL RBs on the main slate, with cash, GPP and some contrarian plays to win you some green!
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McCaffrey benefits from a week off and continued involvementin all aspects of the Carolina offense, and the absence of Cam Newton means he’llget most of the goal line carries as well. The top RB play in any format – evenagainst a tough 49ers run defense – McCaffrey should see 5-10 targets and score20+ fantasy points even if he doesn’t break out with a monster game.
Barkley checks in at 1B when it comes to fantasy upside forWeek 8. He was a full participant in Thursday’s practice at is coming off aWeek 7 return which saw him net 80 total yards against the Cards. This week, hefaces the second-worst fantasy defense vs. RBs and should have his ay with the Lionsin Detroit’s Ford Field.
If you want to save a little cash from the top plays I’drecommend landing on Fournette, who has at least 20 carries (29, 23, 20, 29) ineach of his last four games and regular scores 15-30 fantasy points. Bolsteredby his contributions to the passing game and a great matchup against the Jets,Fournette’s fantasy upside may exceed both Barkley and McCaffrey in Week 8.
Todd Gurley played just 46-of-75 snaps (60.5%) in the Week7 win over the Falcons, so he’s a considerable risk if he keeps such a low workload.But there’s plenty of upside for the Rams lead back against a Bengals team that’sworst in the league versus fantasy RBs. Malcolm Brown has already been ruledout, so I’ll have plenty of exposure to Gurley with some shares of rookierunning back Darrell Henderson as the complementary option.
After three straight 100-yard rushing performances, Carsonwas held in check against a tough Ravens’ defense, but he’s a good bet for asolid bounce-back game facing the Falcons. Don’t overthink this. You’ll be gladyou played him in GPPs as part of your core builds. He’s viable for cash gameson DK and is a better GPP play on FD where his price is a bit elevated.
David Johnson is a game-time decision, but we’re to going tolet that cloud our decision to play Edmonds. Johnson was active vs. the Giantsbut saw just one carry. Edmonds has at least 14 DK points in three games in arow, and although this is a tougher road matchup, he’s on my radar.
Mack had trouble getting into open space against the Texans,but the passing game was really clicking, so they didn’t need his normal groundand pound approach. He rushed 18 times for 44 yards and caught all three of histargets for 12 more in the Week 7 win and has a better matchup at home vs. theBroncos. I’m not expecting huge ownership levels which makes him a good buy forGPPs.
A usually efficient runner with plenty of upside, Henry didn’t get loose against the Chargers last week but did tally at least 20 carries for the third time in his last four games. With the Titans offense looking better with Ryan Tannehill under center, I’m counting on fewer eight-in-the-box looks against this offense and more of Henry’s emblematic “jailbreak” TD runs against TB.
If this ends up being a negative script game, we could see theChargers using a lot more of Ekeler in space, run or pass, than Gordon. He’shad just one dud so far this season, which was Week 6 against Pittsburgh when everythingwent out the window very early in the Chargers’ game plan. He has two games inhis past three outings with at least seven catches, so I have more interest inDK with the full point PPR, especially with the Bears are among the leagueleaders in receptions allowed to running backs this year with 45.
Nick Chubb gets the Patriots this week, who have allowedzero touchdowns to running backs thus far, and very few RBs are even worthstarting in New England. But Chubb is a special back, could get a few catches,and he’ll have very low ownership. I think he might be worth a look inlarge-field GPPs as a contrarian play.
Freeman is becoming a decent DFs option, especially on DK.He has at least 12 PPR points in each of his past two games against Tennesseeand Kansas City, and he has at least four catches in five of his past sixoutings.
Michel is always risky, especially in PPR, since a lot of thepasses head to WRs and James White. IfRex Burkhead (foot) plays this week, that makes the decision even tougher. ButMichel’s getting more work in this offense and has now scored a touchdown infour of his past six games. He’s also facing a putrid Browns defense this weekthat allows the third-most rushing yards per game at 154.
Ty Johnson should get most of the touches now that KerryonJohnson is on the IR. He’ll share some of the passing game work with J.D.McKissic, who makes sense as a dart-throw punt in large-field GPPs as well, butwe much prefer TYJ facing a Giants defense that has allowed eight running backsto either score or gain at least 100 total yards this season.
Montgomery has been an overwhelming bust in 2019, includingthe past two games against Oakland and New Orleans when he rushed for acombined 31 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, adding 3-24-0. If he can getinto an offensive groove and find his feet a bit against the Chargers (a team thatstruggles to stop the run), we could see a breakout.
I’m going Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson and taking the lock at 2x, but I feel like two of these guys are going to get two TDs each, so the 20x bet is awful tempting.
This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Six 10-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.
I’ve said since Sam Darnold went out I wouldn’t roster Le’Veon Bell. Well now Darnold is back and NFL teams actually have to game plan for the pass which will create more opportunities for Bell. It’s hard to put up good numbers on the ground with teams stacking the box every down, but Bell still has manged top five targets (32) and receptions (27) on the season. He has 166 yards receiving and 206 yards on the ground. The Jets rank dead last in terms of run blocking, but we should see that number improve with Darnold at the helm. This is easily my favorite RB play of the week with the palatable price on both sites and considering his upside and usage in the Jets offense.
It wouldn’t be right for me not to mention Cook, but he isn’t a top play for me this week. He will find his way into my lineups just based on sheer usage. He has 542 yards on the season (second best) and is averaging over six yards per touch. Hard to ignore his 24.6 fantasy point per game output, but his matchup against the number one run defense in the NFL has me thinking twice. The Eagles allow the least amount of yards to the RB position (63 per game). The Vikings offensive line, who allow Cook to average over five yards per carry, will have their work cut out for them at home this Sunday.
Mark Ingram found his way into the end zone in Week Five but outside of that it was a floor performance for the All-pro running back. Second only to San Francisco, The Ravens average over 190 yards on the ground per game. Granted, there is essentially a three way split in carries in Baltimore and we all know Lamar Jackson gets a good chunk of those yards. The Bengals have been atrocious against the run, allowing nearly 170 yards on the ground per game. Things won’t get easier for them this Sunday against a Ravens team that prides themselves on their balanced run attack. Only draw down I see for Ingram is Jackson and Edwards eating into his usage.
Elliott will round out my top tier plays for Week Six. He draws a tough matchup against one of the best defensive lines against running backs. The Jets allow just over 3.50 yards per carry and an average of 87 yards per game on the ground. Elliott will need to get things going for the Cowboys who rank in the top five in terms of run blocking (4.6 yards per carry) and get top LT Tyron Smith back to anchor their offensive line in Week Six. Elliott has 85 carries for 386 yards and 13 receptions for 92 yards through the first five weeks.
Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (NOS) ($7900 FD|$8000)
This week presents great spots for mid tier priced running backs and Chris Carson comes in as one of my favorite in Week Six. Carson and the Seahawks face a Cleveland Browns defense that just gave up 278 yards on the ground to the 49ers on Monday Night. The Browns are also giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground and rank in the bottom five in terms of defensive line efficiency, giving up over five yards per carry. I love Carson in Week Six, catching the Browns at home on a short week.
Leonard Fournette has now strung together two games over 100 yards rushing and got into the end zone for his first touchdown in Week Five. The Jaguars will take on the Saints who surrender over four yards per carry and over 100 yards per game on the ground. The implied matchup is tough, but Fournette managed to log a solid performance in a similar matchup against the Panthers in Week Five. Fournette has 95 carries for 512 yards (3rd best) and 20 receptions for 143 receiving yards on the year.
Derrick Henry is hot and cold as always, but draws a good matchup against a Denver defense that is allowing over 125 yards per game on the ground in 2019. Henry has 98 carries for 387 yards (3.8 per carry). One thing to keep in mind when considering Henry is where he is playing. Henry is a big bruiser but playing in Denver is no easy task if players are not properly conditioned for over 5,000 feet above sea level. Outside of that I think he provides a fairly safe floor and decent upside in Week Six.
Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon (CIN) ($6400 FD|$5500), Devonta Freeman (ATL) ($6600 FD|$5800) David Johnson ($7900 FD|$7600 DK) **Listed Questionable
I know, I know, crazy of me to even consider listing a Miami player. Despite how bad the Dolphins have been this season, the Redskins really aren’t that far behind them. Washington is giving up over 140 yards on the ground per game and rank in the bottom ten in terms of defensive line efficiency (4.3 yards per carry). This really is a punt play, but this game presents a lot of value and good matchups even when considering how bad these two teams have been. Drake has 31 carries for 113 yards in 2019.
David Johnson is listed as questionable coming into Week Six. If he is out, Chase Edmonds would be the one to inherit the touches. Edmonds certainly offers big play upside, he has 19 carries for 127 yards and six receptions for 43 yards. He is averaging 6.8 yards per carry in the limited action he has seen. Atlanta has been fairly decent on a per play basis, allowing just over four yards per carry, but still allow over 120 yards on the ground per game. The Atlanta defense has been dismal in 2019, holding a 3.8% adjusted sack rate and 10.4% defensive DVOA. Arizona and Atlanta both rank within the top ten in terms of offensive pace, so Edmonds should see plenty of looks if he indeed does get the nod this Sunday.
Honorable Mention (Punt): Adrian Peterson ($5300 FD|$4500 DK)
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