Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
For the first time since the 2021 MLB DFS season started, we have a Main Slate without the Dodgers in Coors Field and this is the first slate without obvious ace-level arms – which means we have far more landmines to navigate and potential risk.
The two best arms on the slate in terms of K metrics are Ian Anderson ($9.8K) and Zach Eflin ($8.2K) who sported 29.7% and 28.6% K rates respectively last season while also having 25% or lower HC rates which means they have high K upside and the potential for run prevention – however, the issue for both will lie in the fact they face each other, and more specifically the Braves and Phillies lineups.
If you have been following along with Picks and Pivots early this season, you know that I am a huge proponent of going double-aces on DraftKings, anchoring to high K arms and banking on high variance from hitters that allow me to attack cheaper stacks.
The issue with that approach is that it cannot be applied to every slate equally – like today – if we do not have the elite K arms, I do not think we need to force it.
So rather than start from the top, let’s work our way up from the bottom with two punt arms that I think have some GPP appeal.
Jeff Hoffman ($5.4K) by all metrics is an arm we are not going to start our day considering based on his history but for a pitcher that has spent his entire career in Coors Field, the move out to Cincinnati could pay big dividends.
The reality is, Hoffman outside of his career in Coors has been a totally serviceable arm with a 4.8 ERA and a 21.6% K rate which in the context of this slate, actually puts him in contention to be playable. If you dig deeper, his best K metric split is on the road against RHB, sitting at 23% – and guess what he is about to face today with the Cardinals- a projected line-up with 5-6 right-handed batters included.
Bruce Zimmermann ($6.7K) makes his first start of 2021 and with just 7 innings of major league experience, the Orioles left-hander will get the tough task of pitching in Fenway Park. Interestingly enough, Zimmermann pitched 4 innings of relief against Boston in Fenway last season and did quite well – with 4 innings of 2 hit ball with 5 K’s on his way to 15 DK points.
What is interesting about Zimmermann is that his pitch mix and approach are still developing and we may end up seeing an improved version of himself in his first full big-league season. Zimmermann spent the off-season re-working his mechanics which is outlined in great detail in this great piece from Fangraphs and what we saw in Spring Training was a much different arm with better breaking stuff and more velocity. It is a small sample size, but in 9 innings, he allowed just one hit and sported a 10:3 K: BB ratio.
Listen, I am not going to pound the table and tell you that punting with these arms is a slam dunk – it is far from it. There is risk but there is risk with nearly every arm on this slate and I think the perceived “good arms” are overpriced relative to their talent. So instead- can we punt with arms that have demonstrated K ability and still give us all the salary we want to spent on bats? I think so.
With all the salary we could want, we can attack the best bats on this slate and the game that catches my eye is Yankees/Blue Jays.
The Yankees face off with RHP TJ Zeuch, a low K ground ball arm and the fact that the Yankees have one of the highest totals on the Main Slate, over 5 runs today, will make them a popular place to spend up against arguably the worst arm we have today. The weather in New York will be 60 degrees and sunny with 10MPH winds blowing straight out and so this is a a spot where I think a Yankee stack of power bats could pay massive dividends.
The Blue Jays side of this game very honestly is where my GPP mind goes to. At the start of my research I was intrigued by RHP Domingo German who is back for the Yankees at the back end of the rotation his suspension for domestic violence – listen this kid has tremendous K potential with 26% and 27% K rates his previous two years but that came with nearly 40% hard contact and almost 2 HR/9.
I could have just as easily made the argument FOR German has an SP option on this slate – the kid has electric stuff as evidenced by his 17:1 K:BB ratio in the spring and if the Blue Jays lineup is a Sunday Special – well, maybe we need to reconsider. However, this is also an arm who gives up a ton of hard contact and power against one of the most exciting and powerful young lineups in baseball.
The Blue Jays lineup is not only powerful – but they are pricey on DK with guys like Vlad, Bichette, Biggio and Teoscar all in the $4-$5K and so here is a spot where you take your stand. Are you playing the K rate for German or are you attacking an arm that have up a ton of hard contact with a high HR/9 rate with the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium?
Sunday’s forMLB DFS are always tricky because we tend to see days off for star players and odd lineups that can take a fringe arm and quickly make him a core play if lineups break right.
Today – DISCORD is going to be huge as we adjust and react to lineups.
Let’s be honest – there is no arm today I feel like we HAVE to have, let alone getting two on DraftKings – so instead, can we pay down for arms and let the bats win us this slate? As we get lineups out today, I think we may find that some fringe arms are in better spots then we first thought!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Opening up this Saturday Main Slate with 6 games on the MLB DFS slate, we are once again confronted with the question of how we attack the Dodgers in Coors Field.
With a 7+ run total after scoring 11 runs last night, the Dodgers are going to be insane chalk again – with the core batters all sitting around 40-50% ownership in GPP’s.
Listen, I get it – but baseball is the one sport where I am willing to fade the chalk ESPECIALLY when it comes to hitters as there is no DFS sport with the variance that baseball has when it comes to batters. If the Dodgers go nuts, I am done for – but if they flop at 50% ownership, that is the kind of crazy leverage where you could get a GPP takedown, and frankly, that is the goal any time we play tournaments.
The chalk builds tonight on DK look like Corbin Burnes as your SP1 with as many Dodgers as you can jam in and for cash, I am fine following that path – but for GPP’s we have more than enough viable pivots.
First off – we pay up for pitching – at both spots – all the way up with both Walker Buehler and Lance Lynn who are both over $9K. Buehler over the last two season has a 30% K rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and faces a Rockies projected lineup that has a 27% K rate against RHP since 2019.
Lynn meanwhile is at his best against right-handed heavy teams, sporting a 32.4% K rate against RHB since 2019 and will face likely 6 righties in the Angels lineup.
In both cases, Walker in Coors and Lynn against the Angles are not spots that stand out as “must have” environments for SP’s and couple that with the fact everyone wants Dodgers will leave these guys 10-20% owned tonight. I will take the known commodities on the mound with 30% K rate upside every time and tonight going Buehler/Lynn will be a massive difference maker.
For our stacks – this is easy – we have a right-handed heavy team against a lefty that has been throttled by RHB since 2019 to the tune of a .253 ISO. Caleb Smith is in for a hurting tonight against the San Diego Padres who can roll out a Murderer’s Row of right-handed power.
All of Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado and Wil Myers have .250+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019 and I would argue that this stack has every bit the power upside to match the Dodgers tonight. Looking at ownership right now – you can get a Machado/Myers/Cronenworth middle of the order stack for combined 5-7% ownership – compare that to a Turner/Bellinger/Lux stack at 40% ownership and ask yourself if the Dodgers are really 8-9X more likely to outscore the Padres middle of the order.
One of the ways I think you can get serious leverage tonight is to not only ignore the Dodgers but to attack the chalky Corbin Burnes. Burnes is pushing nearly 60% ownership tonight as of this writing and I am sorry, but that is exactly where I think we can get a huge advantage on the field.
Burnes has electric K stuff for sure, but he also gives up a ton of power, especially to lefties, with a .200 ISO and 43% HC rate allowed to LHB since 2019. The Twins tonight will roll out 4 lefties but they also throw out right-handed batters with some serious reverse splits and while Burnes has shown he has elite K ability this is also a pitcher who gave up 3 HR/9 in 2019 before his breakout 2020.
Now – I would not make the Twins a priority stack – but I do love the idea of using them as a mini-stack around the Padres tonight as a handful of the Twins profile really well against Burnes.
Burnes throws his slider nearly 40% of the time to righties and guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton hammer that pitch type with .200+ ISO marks and 300+ average distance traveled. Against LHB, Burnes relies on his cutter nearly 40% of the time and Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have .400 and .280 ISO marks against that pitch type.
With Burnes being so popular tonight, I think there are a variety of ways the Twins bats get to him and picking off 1-2 bats with HR ability could help you get low owned dongs that also give you direct leverage off the chalk arm!
Slates like tonight are the best and worst of MLB DFS. Listen, the Dodgers are the best spot on the board but the ownership pushing nearly 50% on these bats that is correlated with Corbin Burnes being SUPER chalky gives us the Ricky Bobby path tonight – either we are first or last.
I am happy to fade the chalk tonight and let the chips fall where they may. The San Diego Padres bats have all the upside to match the Rockies and allow me enough salary savings to also get two elite K arms. Two aces and a 5 man power stack at single digit ownership sounds lovely to me!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the 2021 Opening Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
The first thing you will notice when you open your MLB DFS slate for Opening Day is how DraftKings and FanDuel opted to approach the staggered start times differently. FanDuel has included the Yankees and Indians 1 PM EST starts while DraftKings begins their 9 game slate at 2:10 PM EST.
The biggest difference is what this means for our pitching pool as Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are going to be aces that are not available on the DraftKings slate. Neither site will have the Mets/Nationals nightcap which means no Opening Day Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. As a Mets fan, this makes me sad.
I bring this up because typically early season MLB DFS gives the advantage to the elite arms as the weather remains cooler in early April, the hitter’s are not yet in a regular-season groove and the pricing is generally softer from a DFS perspective. This has always lead me early in the years to prioritize arms over bats early but I will say, the way DraftKings has Opening Day set up – they make you think about it.
Not only do we lack the typical “Opening Day Studs” on this 9 game slate but we also get arguably the best offense in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Coors Field! So right off the bat, we get Coors Field slates with lofty Vegas run totals that may make people push the hitters to the top of their priority list.
However, if you are new to MLB DFS you need to realize that baseball is the highest variance sport for fantasy specifically in how it relates to hitters. Even the best of the best in the sport are only successful a third of the time at the plate which means that even someone like Mike Trout can leave you with a big fat zero on any given night. You never get that same level of “floor” for an NBA star like Giannis or an NFL stud like Derrick Henry – barring injuries, these guys always get their stats – in MLB when it comes to batters, that is far from guaranteed.
Conversely, however, this is also why MLB DFS is one of my favorite GPP sports because the variance in offense gives you massive boom or bust potential on any given night. This is what leads me to utilize “stacking” as an ideal GPP strategy in MLB DFS – putting together multiple hitters from the same team to try and maximize that upside.
Sure you can go home run hunting if you like but if you have the lead-off man who doubled, the 2nd hitter who walked, and then the #3 hitter who drilled a home run into the outfield seats – well you have maximized every point of that DFS upside versus those who rostered only the guy who “got the HR.”
On DraftKings you can stack up to 5 hitters from the same team and personally, this is a strategy I will use early and often and it is one I will help guide you through on this slate and throughout the season.
Enough small talk – let’s dive in!
On DraftKings, the highest-priced arm on the slate is going to be Yu Darvish ($10.4K) who gets a home start for his new San Diego Padres team against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Darvish was every bit the MLB DFS ace last season as he ranked top 11 in both K rate and swinging-strike rate with a 31.3% K rate and 14.4% SWSTR rate.
Strikeouts are king in MLB DFS as each strikeout will get you 2.75 DK points and it is the arms with the elite K ability that I am going to want over and over when we have them available to us in our MLB DFS Picks.
Darvish changed his pitch mix drastically in 2020, cutting his fastball usage nearly in half while utilizing his curveball nearly 15% of the time and doing all that while cutting his walk rate in half. Now, Darvish still did struggle with hard contact allowed, a 34.2% rate which was top 12 in baseball – so while he could miss bats, when they squared him up, he got hit hard.
Darvish also had a little bit of luck on his side last year as he sported an 83% Left on Base rate which was top 5 in baseball and a near 10% jump on his career marks. Now it is possible at age 33, with the pitch mix change and the move to an even friendlier pitcher’s park in San Diego that he can maintain that level of run prevention along with his elite K rate but I think his larger career sample size would tell you there is risk in paying the premium dollar for him on the first slate and I could argue that if he is chalky, the Arizona bats make for a sneaky mini leverage stack.
As Adam Strangis pointed out in his Starting Rotation Darvish has really anchored to his cutter, throwing it nearly 40% of the time against left-handed heavy lineups and this was a pitch type Arizona handled well last year – especially the top of the order. Guys like Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar have both hammered this pitch type with .300 and .400 ISO marks respectively and nearly 50% hard contact rates. This Arizona team has some dangerous bats up top and as a team that struck out just 20% of the time against RHP last season which limits the upside in my mind for Yu on Opening Day!
Aaron Nola ($10.1K) is every bit the ace that Darvish showed last season with metrics that match or exceed his as his 33.2% K rate was 2% higher than Darvish while his 13.5% SwStr % was nearly 1% below. In all cases, Nola was a similar top 10 K arm and on this first slate my guess is that with the ballpark difference and the the fact that Nola takes on the Braves, will make Nola nothing more than a low-owned pivot off a likely popular Darvish.
Nola faced the Braves twice last season and we saw the ceiling in his second start with 8 innings of 1 run ball and 10 K’s on his way to 38 DK points. The first outing was not so kind, as he lasted just 2 innings in Atlanta, giving up 4 ER’s and leaving the game with -1.4 DK points.
Nola had some serious home/road splits in his metrics last season as he sported a 36% K rate at home, a 6% increase on his road mark and most importantly saw his 1.42 HR/9 mark on the road drop to 0.91 when pitching in Philadelphia, where he will be on Opening Day.
Nola also exhibited serious L/R splits in 2020 with a 39.7% K rate against RHB which was a 13% increase over the lefties and a staggering shift from the previous season. The driver of this was simple – he went from using his change-up just 15% of the time to a staggering 35% of the time against right-handed batters as his biggest put away pitch with a 35% whiff rate. That change in approach drove this high K output against right-handed heavy teams and with the Braves having only two hitters from the left side in their projected line-up (Albies/Freeman) – Nola stands out as my top GPP SP1.
The last of my “aces” is my lock and load SP2 arm on this slate who arguably can be treated as an SP1 in Kenta Maeda ($8.3K).
Maeda sits in the top 11 in baseball in all the same K metrics we rattled off for Yu and Nola with a 32.3% K rate which is right in the middle of those two but with a 17.2% SWSTR% which was third in all of baseball last season behind only deGrom and Lucas Giolito.
From an advanced stats perspective, Maeda was actually the best pitcher of this trio as he had the lowest SIERA and xFIP of any of the “Big 3” here on Opening Day and yet we can get him at a $2K price discount.
Maeda gets to take on a Brewers team with a 26% K rate against RHP last season and a near 50% GB rate which plays in perfectly to Maeda’s heavy ground ball approach to generate soft contact. That ability to get weak contact WITH swing and miss stuff makes him an elite play for cash games with substantial GPP upside due to his pricing.
My strategy on this slate, especially on DraftKings is to go “double aces” and with Maeda operating as an ace as a far too cheap SP2 it will allow me to take either Darvish or Nola as my SP1.
When it comes to MLB DFS, the pitchers are always going to be my first priority – the reality is you cannot miss on arms when it comes to DFS so I want to anchor to arms I feel good about knowing that batter’s by their nature, are going to be where my “variance” lies.
That said, with my bats, it becomes about the hitters but even more so about which arms I want to attack and that is where stacking comes in. Now the Dodgers in Coors Field are CLEARLY the most optimal spot but their pricing is going to make getting two of the top arms impossible and so I think we find a cheaper stack that faces in my opinion – the worst arm on the slate.
The Kansas City Royals will take on Kyle Gibson and the Rangers and this is the stack that I think can win me a slate on Opening Day.
Gibson was arguably one of the worst arms in baseball in 2020 as he ranked in the bottom 5 in all of baseball in hard contact rate allowed (37.7%) and HR/9 allowed with 1.6 HR/9 in 2020.
In 12 starts last season, Gibson gave up 4 or more runs in half of them and surrendered multiple HR’s in 4 of his 12 starts. THOSE are the starts you are targeting – the multiple HR games with 5,6 and 7 ER’s – that is how you make noise in a MLB DFS GPP!
Gibson struggled with walks (10%) and had just a 9% swinging strike rate last year – meaning people were on base, batters put the ball in play and when they did – they did so at a top 5 hard contact rate.
Past Gibson, you get into one of the worst 10 bullpens in baseball last year for Texas and so if the Royals get to Gibson early and often, they will get the back-end of a terrible bullpen to pad their stats as the game goes on.
The top of the Royals lineup is a speed/power combination with Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and the newly-acquired Andrew Benintendi – all sitting in front of power bats like Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana.
Gibson gave up a .233 ISO mark to LHB in 2020 and a nearly 50% HC rate to RHB so no matter the side of the plate, I think this stack can get to him for an early crooked number.
This 5 man Royals stack alongside a Maeda and Nola/Darvish ace pairing, will still leave you roughly $2.7K per batter for the last 3 spots in your build and I would argue this stack gives you every bit the upside as the high-priced Dodgers.
First off – welcome back MLB DFS – how awesome is it to be reading about Opening Day and fantasy baseball!
Secondly, it will be important to re-align ourselves with how we want to attack our MLB DFS picks after a shortened 2020 season. Take the time to really dig into your builds and players rather than simply “clicking names” because early season MLB DFS can be where we get leverage off the masses before they have had the time to adjust.
My goal on Opening Day is to anchor to a tried and true formula – going double aces with a 5 man high-upside stack. That means going with Nola/Darvish as an SP1 with Kenta Maeda as my locked-in SP2 and pairing them with a 5 man Royals stack against Kyle Gibson.
I am so pumped for this MLB season with Win Daily Sports as we will have amazing content each day for cash games and GPP’s and our wide suite of tools and projections to help you get an edge all year long!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Javier Prellezo is a terrific guy who just happens to be one of the best multi-sport DFS players on the planet. I’ve lost track of how much he’s won in just the short time I’ve been Director of Content at Win Daily Sports. By my count, it’s just over 200K and that’s a LOT of GREEN American Dollars. Javier took time out of his busy day to chat with us about his DFS career and I hope you enjoy it.
PHIL: How did you get your DFS start?
JAVIER: I got my start in Daily Fantasy Sports roughly 3 years ago. I got contacted by a friend to give it a whirl and use his discount code so I gave it a try. I started really getting into it last year around this time, where I felt the first 2 years were preparing me to give it a go for bigger and better prize pools.
PHIL: Were you always this good and if not, what did you do to get where you are today?
JAVIER: So when my friend contacted me to give it a try, it was mainly a 3 person contest between us and another rival because he definitely wasn’t a buddy. In the 3 man contest, we’d do $5 per day and I ended up with y a losing record of 17 wins out of the 150+ total contests we played. It was safe to say I wasn’t that good. Since I’m super competitive in life, I told myself that couldn’t happen again. I began researching DFS strategies and sites. My goal was to learn how to beat them in the upcoming baseball season. In doing some small cash games and practicing, I learned the tricks of the trades. In turn, I kept researching and practicing then built my bankroll then started playing more and more. Once I built up even more bankroll, I started higher entry fee tournaments and my love for the game grew to an all time high.
PHIL: Which is your favorite DFS sport and why?
JAVIER: My favorite is the NFL. NFL is hands down the easiest because, in NFL, chalky players are actually good plays in most tournaments. As opposed to NBA, NHL, MLB, the chalk play isn’t necessarily good in both cash and GPP, but in NFL, it is! Also, I enjoy NFL game play because it’s less of a grind than the other sports since they are every day.
PHIL: How much time do you spend daily researching and building lineups?
JAVIER: I’d say I spend about 1-2 hours per day on researching and building lineups. On weekends, I spend even more time. I research, listen to radio shows, update my projections, and work consistently on my mutli-entry approach into large field tournaments.
PHIL: What advice, if any, do you have for newbies or folks who are struggling with winning at DFS?
JAVIER: My advice is to join us at Win Daily Sports and ask questions. Pick all the different pro’s brains and find out what works best for you. We have a private discord channel which grants access to all users to ask questions 24/7/365. I spend more time in discord talking to DFS Pros Jason Mezrahi, David Jones, our team, and our subscribers then I do with most of my friends and family. Once you have done your research, go with your gut and don’t second guess yourself. If you’re losing, change your process and change your contest selection.
PHIL: What are your future DFS plans?
JAVIER: Win a MILLION dollars in one contest. That’s the goal and that’s the plan! Eventually, retire after my second MILLION!! If you see the image below, I came really really really close last week when I finished 3rd. It was my best finish yet!
With results like these, I have no doubt that Javier will win a million and maybe even two. Good luck buddy and it’s a pleasure to have you in the Win Daily Sports family.
This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.
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On theDefense
Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.
StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals
$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK
There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.
JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox
$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK
At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.
DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals
$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK
Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?
The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.
Boom orBust
One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.
PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK
If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.
| Name | Team | W | L | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 17 | 6 | 10.79 | 2.31 | 1.04 | 50.10% | 15.60% | 3.49 | 3.2 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 12 | 8 | 8.6 | 2.29 | 1.19 | 42.10% | 12.10% | 3.63 | 4.38 |
| Dakota Hudson | Cardinals | 15 | 7 | 6.93 | 4.23 | 1.18 | 57.20% | 21.20% | 3.38 | 4.49 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5 | 8 | 7.97 | 2.16 | 1.31 | 46.60% | 15.90% | 4.97 | 4.24 |
On theAttack
On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?
KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs
There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.
ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Nico Hoerner | 26 | 11.50% | 11.50% | 0 | 0.423 | 0.565 | 0.988 | 0.402 | 149 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 443 | 12.40% | 14.20% | 4 | 0.413 | 0.541 | 0.954 | 0.4 | 147 |
| Kris Bryant | 477 | 9.90% | 22.40% | 3 | 0.375 | 0.516 | 0.891 | 0.375 | 131 |
| Willson Contreras | 290 | 9.70% | 24.80% | 1 | 0.359 | 0.528 | 0.886 | 0.368 | 127 |
| Jason Heyward | 440 | 12.50% | 17.50% | 8 | 0.37 | 0.488 | 0.859 | 0.359 | 121 |
| David Bote | 251 | 13.50% | 24.70% | 3 | 0.386 | 0.458 | 0.844 | 0.358 | 119 |
| Victor Caratini | 197 | 10.20% | 22.30% | 1 | 0.355 | 0.48 | 0.835 | 0.351 | 115 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 447 | 11.60% | 25.10% | 2 | 0.329 | 0.522 | 0.851 | 0.348 | 113 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 505 | 5.50% | 24.40% | 2 | 0.321 | 0.49 | 0.811 | 0.338 | 108 |
| Javier Baez | 448 | 4.50% | 27.90% | 3 | 0.308 | 0.512 | 0.82 | 0.337 | 106 |
| Robel Garcia | 51 | 5.90% | 39.20% | 0 | 0.275 | 0.511 | 0.785 | 0.317 | 93 |
| Ben Zobrist | 109 | 11.00% | 13.80% | 0 | 0.358 | 0.347 | 0.705 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Ian Happ | 90 | 11.10% | 22.20% | 2 | 0.3 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.308 | 87 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 215 | 9.30% | 14.40% | 0 | 0.33 | 0.378 | 0.708 | 0.308 | 91 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 241 | 4.10% | 16.20% | 2 | 0.284 | 0.442 | 0.726 | 0.299 | 81 |
ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.
Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Phillip Ervin | 84 | 7.10% | 20.20% | 0.35 | 0 | 0.405 | 0.662 | 1.067 | 0.312 | 0.436 | 168 |
| Aristides Aquino | 43 | 7.00% | 32.60% | 0.21 | 1 | 0.372 | 0.667 | 1.039 | 0.359 | 0.423 | 160 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 143 | 17.50% | 30.80% | 0.57 | 2 | 0.406 | 0.574 | 0.98 | 0.296 | 0.401 | 145 |
| Alex Blandino | 24 | 25.00% | 20.80% | 1.2 | 0 | 0.417 | 0.278 | 0.694 | 0.056 | 0.332 | 101 |
| Curt Casali | 88 | 10.20% | 19.30% | 0.53 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.429 | 0.758 | 0.169 | 0.321 | 93 |
| Freddy Galvis | 183 | 1.60% | 20.80% | 0.08 | 2 | 0.295 | 0.422 | 0.717 | 0.139 | 0.302 | 85 |
| Jose Peraza | 100 | 7.00% | 12.00% | 0.58 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.376 | 0.696 | 0.108 | 0.3 | 80 |
| Jose Iglesias | 119 | 4.20% | 10.10% | 0.42 | 0 | 0.311 | 0.389 | 0.7 | 0.115 | 0.3 | 79 |
| Joey Votto | 163 | 11.00% | 23.90% | 0.46 | 2 | 0.344 | 0.322 | 0.665 | 0.07 | 0.299 | 79 |
| Josh VanMeter | 26 | 11.50% | 30.80% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.269 | 0.227 | 0.497 | 0.091 | 0.234 | 37 |
| Derek Dietrich | 25 | 0.00% | 36.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.217 | 0.457 | 0.043 | 0.211 | 21 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 49 | 12.20% | 26.50% | 0.46 | 1 | 0.245 | 0.163 | 0.408 | 0.023 | 0.188 | 6 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.
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Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.
On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.
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On theDefense
JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers
$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK
The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.
NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals
$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK
In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.
MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers
$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK
Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.
Joe Rossvs. New York Mets
$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK
For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.
On theAttack
Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds
For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.
Notable Bats
Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.
Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.
Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.
JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins
The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.
Notable Bats
Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.
Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.
Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+. With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.
Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.
Notable Bats
D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.
Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.
Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.
Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.
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