MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Opening Day 2021

227

Welcome to the 2021 Opening Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

The first thing you will notice when you open your MLB DFS slate for Opening Day is how DraftKings and FanDuel opted to approach the staggered start times differently. FanDuel has included the Yankees and Indians 1 PM EST starts while DraftKings begins their 9 game slate at 2:10 PM EST.

The biggest difference is what this means for our pitching pool as Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are going to be aces that are not available on the DraftKings slate. Neither site will have the Mets/Nationals nightcap which means no Opening Day Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. As a Mets fan, this makes me sad.

I bring this up because typically early season MLB DFS gives the advantage to the elite arms as the weather remains cooler in early April, the hitter’s are not yet in a regular-season groove and the pricing is generally softer from a DFS perspective. This has always lead me early in the years to prioritize arms over bats early but I will say, the way DraftKings has Opening Day set up – they make you think about it.

Not only do we lack the typical “Opening Day Studs” on this 9 game slate but we also get arguably the best offense in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Coors Field! So right off the bat, we get Coors Field slates with lofty Vegas run totals that may make people push the hitters to the top of their priority list.

However, if you are new to MLB DFS you need to realize that baseball is the highest variance sport for fantasy specifically in how it relates to hitters. Even the best of the best in the sport are only successful a third of the time at the plate which means that even someone like Mike Trout can leave you with a big fat zero on any given night. You never get that same level of “floor” for an NBA star like Giannis or an NFL stud like Derrick Henry – barring injuries, these guys always get their stats – in MLB when it comes to batters, that is far from guaranteed.

Conversely, however, this is also why MLB DFS is one of my favorite GPP sports because the variance in offense gives you massive boom or bust potential on any given night. This is what leads me to utilize “stacking” as an ideal GPP strategy in MLB DFS – putting together multiple hitters from the same team to try and maximize that upside.

Sure you can go home run hunting if you like but if you have the lead-off man who doubled, the 2nd hitter who walked, and then the #3 hitter who drilled a home run into the outfield seats – well you have maximized every point of that DFS upside versus those who rostered only the guy who “got the HR.”

On DraftKings you can stack up to 5 hitters from the same team and personally, this is a strategy I will use early and often and it is one I will help guide you through on this slate and throughout the season.

Enough small talk – let’s dive in!

MLB DFS Picks – Opening Day Arms

On DraftKings, the highest-priced arm on the slate is going to be Yu Darvish ($10.4K) who gets a home start for his new San Diego Padres team against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Darvish was every bit the MLB DFS ace last season as he ranked top 11 in both K rate and swinging-strike rate with a 31.3% K rate and 14.4% SWSTR rate.

Strikeouts are king in MLB DFS as each strikeout will get you 2.75 DK points and it is the arms with the elite K ability that I am going to want over and over when we have them available to us in our MLB DFS Picks.

Darvish changed his pitch mix drastically in 2020, cutting his fastball usage nearly in half while utilizing his curveball nearly 15% of the time and doing all that while cutting his walk rate in half. Now, Darvish still did struggle with hard contact allowed, a 34.2% rate which was top 12 in baseball – so while he could miss bats, when they squared him up, he got hit hard.

Darvish also had a little bit of luck on his side last year as he sported an 83% Left on Base rate which was top 5 in baseball and a near 10% jump on his career marks. Now it is possible at age 33, with the pitch mix change and the move to an even friendlier pitcher’s park in San Diego that he can maintain that level of run prevention along with his elite K rate but I think his larger career sample size would tell you there is risk in paying the premium dollar for him on the first slate and I could argue that if he is chalky, the Arizona bats make for a sneaky mini leverage stack.

As Adam Strangis pointed out in his Starting Rotation Darvish has really anchored to his cutter, throwing it nearly 40% of the time against left-handed heavy lineups and this was a pitch type Arizona handled well last year – especially the top of the order. Guys like Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar have both hammered this pitch type with .300 and .400 ISO marks respectively and nearly 50% hard contact rates. This Arizona team has some dangerous bats up top and as a team that struck out just 20% of the time against RHP last season which limits the upside in my mind for Yu on Opening Day!

Aaron Nola ($10.1K) is every bit the ace that Darvish showed last season with metrics that match or exceed his as his 33.2% K rate was 2% higher than Darvish while his 13.5% SwStr % was nearly 1% below. In all cases, Nola was a similar top 10 K arm and on this first slate my guess is that with the ballpark difference and the the fact that Nola takes on the Braves, will make Nola nothing more than a low-owned pivot off a likely popular Darvish.

Nola faced the Braves twice last season and we saw the ceiling in his second start with 8 innings of 1 run ball and 10 K’s on his way to 38 DK points. The first outing was not so kind, as he lasted just 2 innings in Atlanta, giving up 4 ER’s and leaving the game with -1.4 DK points.

Nola had some serious home/road splits in his metrics last season as he sported a 36% K rate at home, a 6% increase on his road mark and most importantly saw his 1.42 HR/9 mark on the road drop to 0.91 when pitching in Philadelphia, where he will be on Opening Day.

Nola also exhibited serious L/R splits in 2020 with a 39.7% K rate against RHB which was a 13% increase over the lefties and a staggering shift from the previous season. The driver of this was simple – he went from using his change-up just 15% of the time to a staggering 35% of the time against right-handed batters as his biggest put away pitch with a 35% whiff rate. That change in approach drove this high K output against right-handed heavy teams and with the Braves having only two hitters from the left side in their projected line-up (Albies/Freeman) – Nola stands out as my top GPP SP1.

The last of my “aces” is my lock and load SP2 arm on this slate who arguably can be treated as an SP1 in Kenta Maeda ($8.3K).

Maeda sits in the top 11 in baseball in all the same K metrics we rattled off for Yu and Nola with a 32.3% K rate which is right in the middle of those two but with a 17.2% SWSTR% which was third in all of baseball last season behind only deGrom and Lucas Giolito.

From an advanced stats perspective, Maeda was actually the best pitcher of this trio as he had the lowest SIERA and xFIP of any of the “Big 3” here on Opening Day and yet we can get him at a $2K price discount.

Maeda gets to take on a Brewers team with a 26% K rate against RHP last season and a near 50% GB rate which plays in perfectly to Maeda’s heavy ground ball approach to generate soft contact. That ability to get weak contact WITH swing and miss stuff makes him an elite play for cash games with substantial GPP upside due to his pricing.

My strategy on this slate, especially on DraftKings is to go “double aces” and with Maeda operating as an ace as a far too cheap SP2 it will allow me to take either Darvish or Nola as my SP1.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

When it comes to MLB DFS, the pitchers are always going to be my first priority – the reality is you cannot miss on arms when it comes to DFS so I want to anchor to arms I feel good about knowing that batter’s by their nature, are going to be where my “variance” lies.

That said, with my bats, it becomes about the hitters but even more so about which arms I want to attack and that is where stacking comes in. Now the Dodgers in Coors Field are CLEARLY the most optimal spot but their pricing is going to make getting two of the top arms impossible and so I think we find a cheaper stack that faces in my opinion – the worst arm on the slate.

The Kansas City Royals will take on Kyle Gibson and the Rangers and this is the stack that I think can win me a slate on Opening Day.

Gibson was arguably one of the worst arms in baseball in 2020 as he ranked in the bottom 5 in all of baseball in hard contact rate allowed (37.7%) and HR/9 allowed with 1.6 HR/9 in 2020.

In 12 starts last season, Gibson gave up 4 or more runs in half of them and surrendered multiple HR’s in 4 of his 12 starts. THOSE are the starts you are targeting – the multiple HR games with 5,6 and 7 ER’s – that is how you make noise in a MLB DFS GPP!

Gibson struggled with walks (10%) and had just a 9% swinging strike rate last year – meaning people were on base, batters put the ball in play and when they did – they did so at a top 5 hard contact rate.

Past Gibson, you get into one of the worst 10 bullpens in baseball last year for Texas and so if the Royals get to Gibson early and often, they will get the back-end of a terrible bullpen to pad their stats as the game goes on.

The top of the Royals lineup is a speed/power combination with Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and the newly-acquired Andrew Benintendi – all sitting in front of power bats like Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana.

Gibson gave up a .233 ISO mark to LHB in 2020 and a nearly 50% HC rate to RHB so no matter the side of the plate, I think this stack can get to him for an early crooked number.

This 5 man Royals stack alongside a Maeda and Nola/Darvish ace pairing, will still leave you roughly $2.7K per batter for the last 3 spots in your build and I would argue this stack gives you every bit the upside as the high-priced Dodgers.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

First off – welcome back MLB DFS – how awesome is it to be reading about Opening Day and fantasy baseball!

Secondly, it will be important to re-align ourselves with how we want to attack our MLB DFS picks after a shortened 2020 season. Take the time to really dig into your builds and players rather than simply “clicking names” because early season MLB DFS can be where we get leverage off the masses before they have had the time to adjust.

My goal on Opening Day is to anchor to a tried and true formula – going double aces with a 5 man high-upside stack. That means going with Nola/Darvish as an SP1 with Kenta Maeda as my locked-in SP2 and pairing them with a 5 man Royals stack against Kyle Gibson.

I am so pumped for this MLB season with Win Daily Sports as we will have amazing content each day for cash games and GPP’s and our wide suite of tools and projections to help you get an edge all year long!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!