Tag:

Chase Elliott

DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks | Toyota 500

Joshua Moore 4 years ago

written by Joshua Moore

Want to ask Josh questions about his DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks directly? Follow him on twitter at @dfs_noshame and hop in our discord chat!

The following analysis, DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks, is intended for DraftKings NASCAR DFS GPP purposes only (Toyota 500 at Darlington – May 20, 2020). The projections below include the official starting positions for each driver.

THE PICKS

JIMMIE JOHNSON ($9,100) – Johnson got to the front of the pack on Sunday, before crashing, and landing him in the 37th starting position for Wednesday. Johnson is projected to finish 12th, and provides significant positive place differential upside. Given the upside, it appears Johnson may be quite chalky, but go ahead and eat the chalk, and move on to your next driver selection.

WILLIAM BYRON ($8,900) – Bryon also found himself in trouble on Sunday, ending his day early, and securing the 34th start position for the Toyota 500. If Byron can remember this is not an iRace, settle in, and log some solid long-run laps – he can provide excellent positive place differential upside. Along with Johnson, Byron will most likely find his way into a lot of line ups Wednesday.

RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($7,900) – Wrecky Ricky did not make it through the first lap before he ended up in the wall on Sunday, landing him in the 39th start position for the Toyota 500. With minimal downside risk and significant positive place differential upside, it appears Ricky could make it into a lot of lineups for this slate.

KEVIN HARVICK ($11,600) – Harvick won The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway this past Sunday, landing him in the 20th position to start the Toyota 500. Harvick had the best car on Wednesday, is the favorite to win on Sunday, provides positive place differential upside, and has the ability to lead laps. Plug Harvick in and watch him roll to a victory.

JOEY LOGANO ($9,400) – Logano has a shot at taking the checkered flag every time he fires up the engine. Logano will be starting 3rd with Ty Dillon and Ryan Preece in front of him, giving him a clear path to clean air and laps led. If Logano grabs a bunch of laps led, and finishes in the top five, he will be a great play.

KYLE BUSCH ($12,000) – Kyle Busch is the most expensive driver on the slate; starting 26th and projected to finish second, he’s well-positioned to provide positive place differential points. If you believe Kyle will lead a significant portion of laps, he’s a fine play.

ADDITIONAL OPTIONS

Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez

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THE PROJECTIONS

(fastest laps, laps led not included)*

NO.	DRIVER	TEAM	MANUFACTURER	SALARY_DK	START	PROJECTED_FINSIH	PROJECTED _DK_POINTS*
4	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	Ford	$11,600	20	1	65
18	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	Toyota	$12,000	26	2	66
11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	Toyota	$10,700	16	3	54
19	Martin Truex Jr.	Joe Gibbs Racing	Toyota	$11,110	15	4	51
88	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	Chevrolet	$10,000	19	5	53
9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	Chevrolet	$10,300	17	6	49
22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	Ford	$9,400	3	7	33
2	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	Ford	$9,700	8	8	36
1	Kurt Busch	Chip Ganassi Racing	Chevrolet	$8,700	18	9	44
20	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs Racing	Toyota	$8,500	13	10	37
24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	Chevrolet	$8,900	34	11	56
48	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	Chevrolet	$9,100	37	12	57
12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	Ford	$8,300	5	13	23
42	Matt Kenseth	Chip Ganassi Racing	Chevrolet	$7,600	11	14	27
21	Matt DiBenedetto	Wood Brothers Racing	Ford	$7,000	7	15	21
8	Tyler Reddick	Richard Childress Racing	Chevrolet	$7,700	14	16	26
10	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	Ford	$7,400	9	17	19
6	Ryan Newman	Roush Fenway Racing	Ford	$6,400	6	18	14
14	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	Ford	$7,300	4	19	10
3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	Chevrolet	$7,200	10	20	14
41	Cole Custer	Stewart-Haas Racing	Ford	$6,600	22	21	24
95	Christopher Bell	Leavine Family Racing	Toyota	$6,800	24	22	24
17	Chris Buescher	Roush Fenway Racing	Ford	$6,100	32	23	30
38	John Nemecheck	Front Row Motorsports	Ford	$6,200	12	24	8
96	Daniel Suarez	Gaunt Brothers Racing	Toyota	$6,100	25	25	19
47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	JTG Daugherty Racing	Chevrolet	$7,900	39	26	31
13	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	Chevrolet	$5,900	2	27	-8
37	Ryan Preece	JTG Daugherty Racing	Chevrolet	$5,400	1	28	-11
43	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	Chevrolet	$5,700	21	29	7
34	Michael McDowell	Front Row Motorsports	Ford	$5,800	23	30	7
66	Timmy Hill	MBM Motorsports	Toyota	$4,900	33	31	15
77	Ross Chastain	Spire Motorsports	Chevrolet	tbd	29	32	9
32	Corie LaJoie	Go Fas Racing	Ford	$5,500	31	33	9
15	Brennan Poole	Premium Motorsports	Chevrolet	$4,800	27	34	3
27	Gray Gaulding	Premium Motorsports	Ford	$4,500	28	35	2
51	Joey Gase	Petty Ware Racing	Chevrolet	$4,600	30	36	2
00	Quin Houff	Starcom Racing	Chevrolet	$4,700	35	37	5
53	Garrett Smithley	Rick Ware Racing	Chevrolet	$5,200	36	38	4
78	BJ McLeod	BJ McLeod Motorsports	Chevrolet	$5,000	38	39	4

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR

NASCAR DRAFTKINGS DFS: The Real Heroes 400

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Finally we get back to some real NASCAR racing Sunday at Darlington Speedway. This starts a crazy good stretch of seven races is eleven days, but this comes with some negatives. There is no qualifying for this race and the starting grid was based off of owners points in 4 groupings, and a random draw. This will put the cream of the crop at front of the field and will make decisions on value plays critical.

NASCAR has been racing at Darlington since 1950 on this 1.366 mile oval. Joe Gibbs (4 wins)(Jones, Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, and Hamlin on his current team) and Toyota (5 wins)(Joe Gibbs Team plus Bell, Suarez, and Hill) have dominated at this track the last 7 races. Only Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have multiple wins at this track.

Brad Keselowski gained the pole followed by Alex Bowman in the first row. Harvick, Kyle Busch, Logano, and Hamlin are possible dominators in the top ten. I would be shocked if any drivers outside of the top ten make it into the top five without some major crash. My top three picks to possibly break the top five would be Elliott (11th), Byron (18th), and Jones (20th). I am not too thrilled with many outside of the top 20 to make up serious ground, but I would take Newman (21st), Kurt Busch (22nd), and Bell (28th) as my top three. I did have to throw in a few deep value plays just to get some diversity in my lineups, but other than McDowell (31st), T, Dillon (33rd), and Suarez (37th), I do not give many of them any hope to score decent DFS points.

***The Real Heroes 400 Top 10 Starting Grid***

My top DFS plays at each price tier this week are listed below. I am leaning on those who have had success at this track or I believe can be a dominator. Those qualifying at the rear will be avoided other than to add some diversity in case of any big crashes. My final Driver Usage will be posted on Twitter Sunday, but my top plays are below.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced | DraftKings | FanDuel |

Denny Hamlin $11,100
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,600

NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier | DraftKings | FanDuel |

Erik Jones $9.200
William Byron $8,700
Kurt Busch $8,500

NASCAR DFS Value Plays | DraftKings | FanDuel |

Ryan Newman $6,500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,800
Daniel Suarez $6,200

I also like 4 plays on DraftKings Sports Book to win the race. I am riding Denny Hamlin as my pick to win this week, but I do like 3 other value plays.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR

NASCAR IS BACK – The Real Heroes 400 DFS – Darlington Raceway – 5/17/20

Joshua Moore 4 years ago

written by Joshua Moore

Want to ask Josh questions about The Real Heroes 400 DFS directly? Follow him on twitter at @dfs_noshame and hop in our discord chat!

The following NASCAR Cup Series – The Real Heroes 400 DFS – Darlington Raceway – 5/17/20 analysis is intended for FanDuel GPP purposes.

1. FRONT RUNNER – JOEY LOGANO (FD-$12,200)

Joey Logano, in the Team Penske Shell Penzoil Ford, will be starting from the 9th position on Sunday. Logano has won two of the four Cup Series races in 2020 and will be in a strong position to take the captured flag again at this track that is, too tough to tame.

Pivots: Denny Hamlin (FD-$12,500), Kyle Busch (FD-$14,000), Kevin Harvick (FD-$14,500), Alex Bowman (FD-$10,600), Brad Keselowski (FD-$12,000)

*Make sure to roster the race winner. A second driver from this category may be rostered if they will capture a significant portion of laps led.

2. CAPTURE THE UPSIDE!

Select drivers that will give you positive place differential points. Consider rostering the following:

CHASE ELLIOTT (FD-$11,700) – Elliott is starting 11th. Elliott has faced some challenges in 2020 capturing the checkered flag, but continues to be ranked third in driver/owner points.

ERIK JONES (FD-$9,800) – Jones is starting 20th. Jones won the last Cup Series race in Darlington, South Carolina (2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 – September 1, 2019).

KURT BUSCH (FD-$9,400) – Kurt Busch is starting 22nd. Busch logged 65-fastest laps on his way to a 7th place finish last time out at Darlington.

WILLIAM BYRON (FD-$9,000) – Byron is starting 18th. Byron finished 21st last time out at Darlington, but started on the pole. The combination of Bryon and crew chief Chad Knaus, seems to make Byron a great option to capture the upside.

MARTIN TRUEX (FD-$11,500) – Truex is starting 15th. Truex may be the fifth-best driver after Logano, Busch, Hamlin, and Harvick, but has yet to see a top-10 finish in 2020. The starting position makes Truex attractive, but roster this driver with caution.

TYLER REDDICK (FD-$6,600) – Reddick, a teammate of Austin Dillon, is starting 29th. Reddick has an excellent history in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and looks to continue to excel in his rookie year as a Cup driver.

RYAN NEWMAN (FD-$7,000) – Newman is starting 21st. If nothing else, who does not want to see Newman fighting for the win on Sunday. Newman offers great upside, but roster with caution.

3. DEEP PUNTS

Look towards a balanced build this week for The Real Heroes 400, and roster drivers that will finish on the lead lap. Consider avoiding drivers Timmy Hill, Joey Gase, Quin Houff, Reed Sorenson, and Garrett Smithley that have not finished on the lead lap in a 2020 NASCAR Cup Series race.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: FanShield 500 Analysis

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Last Week’s NASCAR Auto Club 400 was a step in the right direction as we made a slight profit. Alex Bowman won the race with the best car. Unfortunately, much of the chalk hit, so winning any big money was difficult with a number of ties at the top. This week’s FanShield 500 at Phoenix should be a bit different, with opportunities to have some lineup diversity.

The 48th running of this race, over the 1-mile tri-oval track, will have 3 stages and 312 laps as Stage 1 is set to end at Lap 75, and Stage 2 Lap 190. Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated recently winning four of the last five Phoenix races, leading the most laps in each of the last six races (He has Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Truex Jr., and Jones this year) Many drivers have won multiple times on this surface including Kevin Harvick 9 (Five FanShield 500’s), Jimmie Johnson 4, Kyle Busch 3, and Denny Hamlin 2. Joey Logano and Kurt Busch have also won here before.

Chase Elliott shined in Friday’s practice sessions finishing 2nd early and 1st in the late session. Many drivers showed well in both finishing in the top 10 of each including William Byron, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Erik Jones.

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Chase Elliot continued his weekend dominance in Phoenix also taking down the Pole in Saturday’s qualifying. His performance is much like what Bowman did last week and is hard to ignore in DFS and Win betting. Phoenix dominator Kevin Harvick joins Elliott in the first row. Hamlin, Larson, a Blaney round out the top 5.

Last year’s winner Kyle Busch will start in 10th and will have other top drives right behind him including Logano 13th, Keselowski 14th, Jimmie Johnson 21st. Martin Truex Jr. who qualified 12th will start the race in the rear due to an engine change.

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My top DFS plays at each price tier this week are listed below. I am leaning on those who have had success at this track and showed speed in practice and qualifying. Those qualifying at the rear will be avoided as they will go down multiple laps quickly with little chance to make a top 15 run. My final Driver Usage will be posted on Twitter Sunday.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $11,00
Kyle Busch $12,000
Brad Keselowski $10,400

NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier

Chase Elliott $9.600
William Byron $8,300
Erik Jones $8,500

NASCAR DFS Value Plays

Christopher Bell $6,500
Kurt Busch $8,100
Bubba Wallace $6,000

I also like 6 plays on DraftKings Sports Book to win the race. I am again riding Kyle Busch as my pick to win this week, but Kevin Harvick can never be ignored.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings Analysis for Miami

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Phoenix pretty much went as I thought. I was in on Chase Elliott and he crashed. He had to push it and it ended up costing him. I am just glad he went all in trying to win. We are now down to the final four and will crown a Champion on Sunday. Below is my DraftKings NASCAR DFS analysis for Miami.

***Final Four eligible for the Championship***

The creme rose to the top as these four drivers were the dominate ones this season, each winning at least 4 times. It is no surprise that they top the odds to win Sunday’s event as all 4 drivers are +325 on DraftKings.

Homestead-Miami Speedway, a 1.5-mile track, has hosted the Ford EcoBoost 400 since 1999. Only Denny Hamlin has won this race multiple times in 2009 and 2013, but each of the other three finalists also have a recent win here (Harvick 2014, Kyle Busch 2015, Martin Truex Jr. 2017) I really do not see any of them having an advantage at this point, but qualifying could change that.

A few other drivers I think have a chance to win with favorable odds include Joey Logano, last year’s winner, at 14-1, Jimmie Johnson, the 2016 winner, at 100-1, and Alex Bowman at 50-1.

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Looking at DraftKings DFS, the top 4 are reasonably priced led by Busch at $11,400 followed by Hamlin at $11,000, Harvick at $10,800, and Truex Jr. at $10,600.

Of those outside of the championship hunt, the top 3 values I see are Joey Logano at $9,800, Alex Bowman at $7,800, and Matt DiBenedetto at $7,600. I am very leery at this point of any deep value unless someone shows something in practice or qualifying. Below are my top drivers at each price point pre-qualifying.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $10,800
Denny Hamlin $11,100
Joey Logano $9,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $7,800
Matt DiBenedetto $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,500
Austin Dillon $7,100
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,900

I will be updating my DFS picks after qualifying Saturday including my Driver usage and Optimal lineup.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

DraftKings NASCAR post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The practices and qualifying at ISM Raceway have put me in a quandary as I consider the post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix. The big question for me is to play Chase Elliott or not. He dominated the 2nd practice and qualified 6th. His only chance to make the final 4 next week in Miami is to win, and I think he will take any chance to make it happen, He definitely has the talent to do so. Below is our post-qualifying analysis for Phoenix.

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Blaney, Harvick, Hamlin, Logano, DiBenedetto, and Kyle Busch all finished in the top 10 of both practice sessions and look to have good speed. Kyle Busch, Logano, and Hamlin also took the top 3 spots in qualifying and must be part of a large percentage of DFS lineups. Truex Jr. qualified 4th followed by Larson, Elliott, and Harvick, so as I anticipated the leader board is going to be filled with the top talent all day Sunday. Blaney who qualified 10th was the lowest qualifier of the 8 still in the playoff.

I Identified 5 value drivers yesterday that I thought would play a big role in DFS lineups on Sunday. They qualified about where I thought they might except for Dillon who was lower than expected on 28th. I am a little worried that they will not have the speed to compete for a top 5 finish, and I leaned on experience with Johnson and Newman as I build my lineups.

Ryan Newman – 20th
Jimmie Johnson – 22nd
Aric Almirola – 11th
Austin Dillon – 28th
Daniel Suarez – 15th

Some other drivers who intrigued me included Bowman who qualified 14th, DiBenedetto who qualified 16th, and John Nemechek who qualified 26th. I also still like the 4 plays I made yesterday using Almirola 42/1, Johnson and Suarez at 70/1, and the value play of the day Newman at 180/1 to win. The new post-qualifying odds have not come out yet, but it will be dominated I am sure by the top qualifiers and I do not believe there will be enough value on any of them so I will pass.

I ended up with 40 lineups this week on DraftKings. Pricing made it difficult to get as many of the top drivers as I wanted. I also really wanted to avoid too many deep values plays. My driver’s usages are below. Good Luck!!!

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I am leaning towards the under on both drivers here, but I think Blaney has the best chance to hit that number as he goes all in for a playoff spot.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Phoenix

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Finally had a good week of DFS in Texas as Kevin Harvick took care of business and punched his ticket to the final 4 in Miami. This week we head to the ISM Raceway in Phoenix to fill the last 2 spots in the playoff chase. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have the advantage, but one wrong move on the track or in the pits can change that. Chase Elliott is in a major slump and is in a must win situation. I am interested to see how he practices and qualifies, because he could be an interesting DFS play.

Phoenix is a 1 mile track that opened in 1964. Since 2005 they have held 2 races a year which are currently the TicketGuardian500 and Bluegreen Vacations500. Harvick is the dominator here with 9 wins and 16 top 5 finishes. He will nearly be impossible to fade if he qualifies on top. Other drivers have also had success here like Jimmie Johnson (4 wins – None since 2009), Kyle Busch (3 wins – Including the last two at this track), and Ryan Newman (2 wins)

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DFS this week will be very specific for me with the 5 drivers racing for the last 2 spots dominating my lineups. The cream will rise to the top and I can’t imagine any of those five not being in the top 10 unless they get caught up in a wreck. For me, Elliott will be the wild card. I will be over owned on him if he qualifies and practices well, and under owned or will fade him completely if he does not.

Regarding Harvick and Truex Jr. if they get the pole I will probably be 50% or more, otherwise I most likely will play them more as a GPP pivot. Contests will be won based on how the value performs. I have five drivers I will be focusing on.

Ryan Newman – I love the fact that he has won here before and has driven very well the last 2 weeks. Outside of the Hollywood Casino 500 disaster, he has averaged 54 DK points over his last 3 finishes and is only $7,600 this week.
Jimmie Johnson – He is a legend and at $7,900 I always have to give him a look. He has finished 34th or worse the last 3 weeks, but outside of those, he has finished 10th, 8th 9th, 11th, and 11th. He has a top 10 in him and possibly a top 5 if he gets some breaks.
Aric Almirola – He has back to back 4th place finishes at this track his last 2 races, and he has proven week after week he is a top driver qualifying well and always in the mix including last week’s 2nd place finish. He just has to stay out of trouble and another top 5 is very possible.
Austin Dillon – At $6,800 he is a tremendous value. He has been consistent and if everything goes right, he has serious top 10 potential. His value goes up if he qualifies outside the top 20 as long as he practices ok. He finished 8th in this race last year.
Daniel Suarez – After a rough go of it lately, he finished 3rd last week and I think he can bring that momentum to Phoenix. I assume he will qualify in the 10-15 range and I love his top 5 potential. His last 3 finishes of 19th, 21st, and 36th here may also keep his ownership down.

***2019 TicketGuardian500 at Phoenix Results***

***2018 Can Am 500 at Phoenix Results***

Below are my pre Practice/Qualifying rankings. I will update my rankings and give my driver usage for DFS once qualifying is official.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $11,500
Kyle Busch $11,900
Kyle Larson $9,600

Mid-Tier

Ryan Newman $7,600
Jimmie Johnson $7,900
Aric Almirola $8,100

Value Plays

Daniel Suarez $7,200
Austin Dillon $6,800
Rickie Stenhouse Jr. $6,600

I was also looking at DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s sportsbooks and FanDuel has the best odd by far. There are 4 plays that I think have great value with Ryan Newman at 180/1 being ridiculous.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Texas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Martinsville did not turn out like I has hoped as Martin Truex Jr. did exactly what I expected Denny Hamlin to do by dominating the race. Those short tracks are tricky and you have to throw your dart. This week we get back to a 1.5 mile track at the Texas Motor Speedway. There are only 2 races left for those 8 finalists still left in the playoffs to make the final four in Miami. For those below the cut line, this week in crucial as a DNF could force a must-win situation at Phoenix next week. Truex is currently on top followed by Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano in the top 4.

***Playoff Standing thru Martinsville***

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The Texas Motor Speedway is a newer track opening in 1996. It hosts 2 races yearly with the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 in the Spring and the AAA Texas 500 in the fall. Jimmie Johnson has dominated at this track with 7 wins, but many others in the race Sunday have also had success including Kyle Busch and Hamlin with 3 wins, Harvick with 2, and Logano and Newman with one. Hamlin took the race earlier this season with some longer shots in the next three spots including Bowyer, Suarez, and Jones. I will have to spread a bit more in this race, to make sure I have proper DFS coverage.

***2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Results***

Below are my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings for DraftKings. I am a little more comfortable on this type of track, but I still prefer the super speedways. I always like drivers who will go for the win and take the risks necessary to make it happen.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $10,800
Kevin Harvick $10,400
Kyle Busch $11,200

Mid-Tier

Jimmie Johnson $8,600
Erik Jones $8,400
William Byron $8,000

Value Plays

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,800
Daniel Suarez $7,200
Paul Menard $7,300

Kevin Harvick led qualifying which was no surprise. Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin were close behind followed by Kurt Busch to complete the first two rows. The other playoff drivers qualified 11th (Logano), 12th (Kyle Busch), 13th (Larson), 14th (Elliott), 15th (Larson), and 17th (Truex Jr.) so all are in decent position to make a run to the top.

It was very hard to decide who I wanted to back in this race on DraftKings. I decided to lean on the big three of Harvick, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch and wheel a bunch of value around them. It was hard to ignore Johnson who qualified 25th, but I was cautious only using him 4 times. I also thought Bowyer (24th), Newman (25th), and Menard (31st) had top 10-15 potential which would score well in DFS. I had to throw in some deep value in some lineups, but no one under $6K stood out. Below is my driver usage over 23 lineups. Good Luck!

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I am a bit leery about Logano in this spot, so I would lean under with him, but I think Jones could lead some laps and get a top 5 finish, thus, I am on the over with him.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NASCAR

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 4 events left after a crazy finish in Kansas that saw Joey Logano edge out Brad Keselowski for the last of the 8 playoff spots. Now we head to Martinsville in NASCAR DFS to start the final-four playoff push for Miami. Kyle Busch leads the playoff standings with 46 points followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

***Current Playoff Standings. The top 4 after Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix race for the title in Miami on November 17th***

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The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.52 mile track that opened in 1947. The STP 500 is ran in the Spring and this race, the First Data 500, is always in the Fall. Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports have dominated this event in the past as Johnson has 6 wins, with the last in 2016, and Hendrick Motorsports has 16 wins since 1987. Chevrolet dominated with 6 straight wins from 2011 to 2016, but Toyota and Ford have won the last two with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin is the only other multiple winner of this event, winning back to back in 2009-2010. Johnson and Hamlin also have won the Spring STP 500 3 times each with Brad Keselowski winning it twice.

Here were my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings. This is a race where the cream usually rises to the top, and I like to choose drivers that qualify well. Sometimes you are forced to go outside the top 10 for value, but otherwise the top is best. You will also see the best drivers are slightly more expensive this week.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $11,000
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,300
William Byron $8,000
Jimmie Johnson $8,100

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Paul Menard $7,100

Qualifying was not too surprising. Denny Hamlin took the pole and will be my main play for the race. Chase Elliott qualified 2nd, but due to a blown engine in practice, he will be starting at the rear of the field. The other playoff drivers were all over the grid with Truex Jr. 3rd, Blaney 6th, Joey Logano 10th, Kyle Busch 13th, Larson 14th, and Kevin Harvick a disappointing 22nd.

I decided to play only 3 lineups this weekend. Hamlin is in all three of them, then I mixed in the rest of my favorite plays. I was planning on playing deeper, but I decided to go with less lineups in more contests. My best week ever in NASCAR DFS was using one lineup that pushed over 600 points, so lets hope this strategy works again. My driver usage is below. Good Luck!

***DraftKings DFS Picks for Martinsville***

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I am going with the under for both drivers in this play. Elliott is at the back of the pack to start and I do not see Busch contending. Neither will lead enough laps to get the needed Fantasy Points.

Please also follow me on Twitter @CHRISBOUCHARD88

5 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings analysis for Talladega

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

There are just 6 races left in the NASCAR season, and 12 drivers left in the race for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Sunday will go a long way in determining the top 8 that will move on to stage 3 of the playoffs.

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This 2.66 mile track is in my opinion the hardest one to handicap as “The Big One” is always looming. I like to lean on those drivers who will be as close to the front as possible in case a pileup happens. This race is also a bit different than the earlier one in the season due to the playoffs. Those comfortably in the top of the standings will be more cautious, and those below the cut line of 8 will be more aggressive trying to get a win that gives them an automatic spot in the next round.

***The Playoff Rankings – The top 8 after the race next week in Kansas move on.***

Chase Elliott in the No. 9 won for Hendrick Motorsports in the GEICO 500 at Talladega earlier this season. Kyle Larson was in a spectacular multi-car crash on the last lap. This was the first time since 1987 they ran here without a restrictor plate. The final results were littered with low price DFS longshots including Preece, Hemric, and Gaughan. I expect some of the same this Sunday. Having the right mix of lap leading dominators and value plays will be key in winning DFS GPPs.

***Final Results of the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega***

My pre-qualifying DFS rankings were as follows, but I think there are 10-12 drivers who could come away with the win including some below $8K.

High Priced

Kyle Busch $10,900
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Chase Elliott $10,100

Mid-Tier

Matt DiBenedetto $7,900
Jimmie Johnson $8,200
Alex Bowman $8,400

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,800
Bubba Wallace $6,200
Daniel Hemric $6,400

While I like to get an early feel for my lineups, qualifying position is crucial in DFS, especially at Talladega. The High/Low stacking process is most popular, but I think finding those in the 10-20 range that can win are golden.

Qualifying was a Hendrick Motorsports domination show as they took the top 4 qualifying spots. Only Almirola was able to join that foursome under 50 seconds. Two of my favorites this week Kyle Busch (26th) and DiBenedetto (31st) disappointed in qualifying, but I will still be on them in DFS. Denny Hamlin will have a lot to work to do from the back of the pack as he cut short his qualifying run due to an engine issue.

After readjusting some of my percentages, I came up with 42 lineups for DraftKings that I think can compete well for GPP wins. I am a bit heavier on the Hendrick drivers than I like, but you cannot ignore how well they did. I think Chase Elliott has to be considered the huge favorite to lead DFS in points. Others I have given a strong look to beyond Kyle Busch, DiBenedetto, and Hamlin, that did not qualify well, include both Dillons at 20th and 21st, Harvick in 15th, and Suarez in 19th.

I have included my driver percentages below, but for an “OPTIMAL” lineup I would have to include Elliott, Hamlin, Bowman, and DiBenedetto. I am using them in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

***DFS Driver Usage for Talladega 10/13/19***

Please also follow me on Twitter @CHRISBOUCHARD88

5 years ago 0 comment

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NASCAR DFS: DraftKings analysis for Talladega

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Chase Elliott

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