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The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 13 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 13 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week ...

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Jalen Hurts (FD $16,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (FD $12,000, DK $12,600)

Contrarian #2: DeVonta Smith(FD $10,500, DK $10,800)

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

FanDuel and DraftKings actually have Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts flip-flopped for the top-priced player, so that could some into play in determining who’s chalkier on either site. Hurts has the better matchup overall, but the Cowboys are favored by 3 points. We can probably pencil in Hurts at captain since he should have plenty of time to throw and use his legs, and I think Prescott is too expensive given both Amari Cooper‘s ribs issue (he’ll play with a flak jacket on and is a risk to reaggravate the injury) and the emergence of both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Prescott’s huge Week 1. Playing Eagles WR DeVonta Smith at Captain could allow us to Hurts and a couple big-time Dallas players.

Eagles notes: Hurts is the main target for me because of what he can do with his legs as well. I’m interested in getting exposure to one or both of the Eagles TEs, though the production from Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz is just difficult to predict. The tight ends will have to be more involved than last Sunday, when Goedert didn’t have his first catch until the second half and finished the just two receptions (on two targets) for 24 yards. Ertz is off the COVID list now, and had just one reception (one target) for 6 yards in Week 2, but could see 3-5 targets this week. I don’t think Miles Sanders is a huge priority this week, though I might grab some Kenneth Gainwell exposure as a cheap play in a negative game script. Smith is the best option at WR, but I’ll have shares of Jalen Reagor given his upside.

Cowboys notes: We may be able to get away without Prescott, but there are avenues where we get both him and Hurts in some lineups. Ezekiel Elliott might be the top play from a contrarian perspective this week. I have little interest in Cooper, and will get most of my WR exposure with CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson. Pollard could be used as a WR as well, and I think both he and Zeke are in play this week for the Cowboys against the Eagles run defense. I’ll also have shares of Blake Jarwin and kicker Greg Zuerlein.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 51-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dak Prescott
  2. Jalen Hurts
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. DeVonta Smith
  5. CeeDee Lamb
  6. Dallas Goedert
  7. Jalen Reagor
  8. Miles Sanders
  9. Amari Cooper (ribs)
  10. Kenneth Gainwell
  11. Tony Pollard
  12. Cedrick Wilson
  13. Dalton Schultz
  14. Blake Jarwin
  15. Quez Watkins
  16. Greg Zuerlein
  17. Zach Ertz
  18. Jake Elliott
  19. Eagles DST
  20. Cowboys DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Mike Evans
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Ronald Jones
  6. Chris Godwin
  7. Michael Gallup
  8. Ezekiel Elliott
  9. Amari Cooper
  10.  Bucs DST
  11.  Antonio Brown
  12.  Leonard Fournette
  13.  Rob Gronkowski
  14.  Blake Jarwin
  15.  Giovani Bernard
  16.  Tony Pollard
  17.  O.J. Howard
  18.  Ryan Succop
  19.  Greg Zuerlein
  20.  Cowboys DST
  21.  Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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The NFL DFS season continues with the second of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ll help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $18,600, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (DK $15,900, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #2: Andy Dalton (DK $14,400, FD $12,500)

The Cowboys are favored in this game – largely because most of the skill position weapons that helped Dak Prescott put up gaudy numbers for the first few weeks will be available to Andy Dalton as well. But just as the Cowboys have struggled with injuries to their offensive line and the season-ending injury to Prescott, the Cards defense will also be without one of their best players in Chandler Jones (torn biceps).

The Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping anyone, so the task of containing Kyler Murray will be nearly impossible – making the second-year star the likely chalk as showdown captain. He and DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the porous Dallas secondary, though I expect production from all the Cards WRs in this one.

One of the keys for Dallas will be establishing the running game, which should mean 20+ carries for Ezekiel Elliott. The elite Cowboys RB is still a dangerous weapon as both a rusher and receiver, and the Cards have struggled against opposing RBs, who are averaging 106.8 rushing yards and 50.8 receiving yards per game in 2020. Standout defensive backs Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson may limit the effectiveness of the Dallas WR corps a bit, but the Cards’ front seven will have a tough time with Zeke.

This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and if I had to pick a Cowboys WR to spend up on, it would be CeeDee Lamb. The rookie WR already has 29-433-2 on 40 targets through five games, and he seems to get better every week.

Week 6 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the defenses. There’s certainly pick-six leverage in this matchup, but both units are banged up and there’s just no reason to believe either defense can be dominant.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Larry Fitzgerald. He saw seven targets last week and has yet to score a TD in 2020. This could be the week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. DeAndre Hopkins
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Andy Dalton
  6. Christian Kirk
  7. Amari Cooper
  8. Dalton Schultz
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10.  Chase Edmonds
  11.  Larry Fitzgerald
  12.  Greg Zuerlein
  13.  Michael Gallup
  14.  Zane Gonzalez
  15.  Andy Isabella
  16.  Cedric Wilson
  17.  Cardinals DST
  18.  Cowboys DST
  19.  Tony Pollard
  20.  Darrell Daniels
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The slate of DFS wide receivers is questionable with teams resting their stars with most of the playoff seeding figured out. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 17 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 17 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Davante Adams, GB @ DET

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,400)

Davante Adams had a great game against the Lions earlier this season with four touchdown receptions. You’d be crazy to expect that, but a solid game shouldn’t be questioned. He’s also coming off a game where he was targeted 16 times. He is Top 25 in both receptions and yardage with a weaker defense in Detroit. He should wreak havoc against the Lions yet again.

Michael Thomas, NO @ CAR

DK ($9,900) FD ($9,200)

It would be criminal to not include Michael Thomas on this list. He now has the all-time single-season reception record and still has one more regular-season game to play. He was dealing with a hand injury but won’t affect his status and Carolina (like the rest of the NFL) had trouble stopping him. Last time these teams met, 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. A slight opportunity for a Wild Card bye as well? Expect another big game.

Week 17 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Jarvis Landry, CLE @ CIN

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,800)

This one is simple: Jarvis Landry is the Browns’ best receiver. The Bengals have nothing to play for while the Browns still have the opportunity to build up chemistry for next season. Landry is 12th in the NFL in yardage and should get a good amount of looks to up to get him closer to the Top 10.

Amari Cooper, WAS vs DAL

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

This is Cooper’s last chance to show teams what he can do with impending free agency in the near future. The Cowboys lost their hold on the NFC East and need to win and have the Eagles lose to make the playoffs. With the reports that he was benched during last week’s game, this should be his chance to attack a weak secondary and show why he is still among the league’s top wideouts.

Week 17 Wide Receiver Fades

Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT @ BAL

DK ($5,500) FD ($5,900)

Juju didn’t look 100 percent last week against the New York Jets and I’m not sure he will be in this matchup either. He had seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens earlier this season. But with the opportunity of a playoff berth for the Steelers still there, I see Juju trying to pull it out but he isn’t healthy yet.

Stefon Diggs, CHI vs MIN

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Diggs doesn’t get a crazy amount of targets as he only has one game this year with at least 10 targets. The Vikings have already clinched last Wild Card spot and this could be the reason Diggs gets pulled at halftime to prevent any injuries. Diggs isn’t as explosive against a good defense and I think he won’t produce as well as other wide receivers for this price.

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Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Davante Adams over 23.5 receptions.

Arguably three of the best wide receivers this season should hit this mark. Michael Thomas is dealing with a hand injury but will play this week and should continue getting double-digit catches himself. Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip injury but it won’t affect his status either. The combination of Landry and Davante Adams should easily get 14 catches combined.

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The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 16 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 16 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ TB

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,700)

This is going to be a pass-heavy game from both sides. DeAndre Hopkins has the sixth-most receiving yards in the league. Hopkins is going to also be targeted the most in this game as he has 99 receptions, which is the second-most in the NFL. Tampa’s defense completely shuts down the running game but struggles against the pass as they give up 277 passing yards a game. Expect a huge day for Hopkins.

Michael Thomas, NO @ TEN

DK ($9,300) FD ($9,000)

It’s a hefty price but it would be a sin to leave him off of this list. Michael Thomas is going to get some MVP votes and break the single-season reception mark. He has double-digit receptions in three of his last four games. Tennessee allows the sixth-most completions in the NFL so this sounds like as close to a lock as it can get.

Week 16 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Tyler Lockett, MIN @ LAC

DK ($7,600) FD ($7,600)

He is going to be Russell Wilson’s favorite receiver with Josh Gordon being suspended. The Arizona Cardinals have the worst pass defense in the NFL so this is a good matchup for Lockett to have a huge day. This should be a bounce-back performance from the last times these two teams met and he struggled. With the NFC West still up for grabs, expect Tyler Lockett to build momentum into a Week 17 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

Amari Cooper, DAL @ PHI

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,700)

This is the week the Amari Cooper trade really looks like a victory for Dallas. Philadelphia is going to have trouble guarding Cooper with a weak secondary. Last time these two teams met, he finished with five catches for 106 yards. His DFS price dipped a tiny bit after last week’s dud of a performance against the Rams but with his contract expiring after the season, expect a big game in the biggest game for the Cowboys this season.

Week 16 Wide Receiver Fades

Breshad Perriman, HOU vs TB

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,400)

Don’t take the bait on this one. It looks like Perriman is likely to have a big game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going to miss the game with injuries. However, Bradley Roby will be guarding Perriman and that matchup is leaning towards the defense. The potential is there, but with the price tag close to other elite receivers, I would avoid picking him.

T.Y. Hilton, CAR vs IND

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,300)

Call me crazy but T.Y. Hilton does not look 100 percent to me yet. He returned on Monday night against the New Orleans Saints after about a month due to a calf issue and looked like a shell of himself with just four catches on nine targets for 25 yards. I don’t think he will do as poorly but definitely not enough production to warrant the prices for him.

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Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson over 18.5 receptions.

The combination of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins should have a field day against the injury-plagued Chicago defense. The speed of these two receivers should be the difference maker and I expect around eight receptions apiece. I understand it’s a lot but have the Chiefs will need to win to still have a chance for a first-round bye. Allen Robinson has been targeted at least eight times in the last four games, so expect at least five receptions from him.

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The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 12 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 12 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Michael Thomas, CAR vs NO

DK ($9,200) FD ($9,300)

Michael Thomas is leading the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards per game and receiving yards. The Panthers do not have any defensive backs that can stop him. Expect another big game from Michael Thomas with double-digit targets and around 100 yards and possibly a touchdown or two.

D.K. Metcalf, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,700)

Recently, Metcalf has shown what he is able to do with a 100-yard game against the Buccaneers. Going up against a depleted secondary of the Philadelphia Eagles could be a blessing for Metcalf as he can get around five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Russell Wilson will have a nice game and Metcalf will be the main reason why.

Week 12 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Jarvis Landry, MIA vs CLE

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,900)

This should be the game where Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield have a huge game together. Going up against the tanking Miami Dolphins helps as they allow 12.6 yards a catch and haven given up 42 plays of at least 20 yards. Landry will get the second cornerback and should tear it up more than OBJ will.

Mike Evans, TB @ ATL

DK ($7,300) FD ($8,000)

Evans is averaging just under 100 yards a game and is second in receiving yards this season. He also has seven touchdowns and could increase that total against a subpar Atlanta defense. Atlanta gives up 276 yards per game through the air and Mike Evans could benefit the most from that. Who do they have that can stop Mike Evans?

Week 12 Wide Receiver Fades

Amari Cooper, DAL @ NE

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,700)

Amari Cooper is Top Five in receiving yards and yards per game. However, he is dealing with the New England Patriots’ defense. Let alone that, Bill Belichick takes away an opponent’s best DFS option and that would be Cooper. New England allows just 152.6 yards a game through the air and will gameplan against Amari Cooper. Cooper will definitely take a hit in production and force the Cowboys to figure out something else.

Allen Robinson, NYG vs CHI

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Allen Robinson is going to have an okay game against a less-than-stellar Giants defense. This is not about his skill not being there, instead of who is throwing him the ball. I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky at all and with the Giants coming off their bye week, expect the gameplan to be to shut down Robinson in the passing game.

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Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas and Mike Evans over 25.5 receptions

Michael Thomas should go out and get eight catches with most of the targets heading his way. Jarvis Landry should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins, who are actively trying to lose, will have their second-best corner on him. Mike Evans should get around seven catches as well against the Atlanta Falcons in a huge passing game. If Landry can get early confidence with Baker Mayfield, this should be a lock.

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This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Seven 11-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($7800 FD|$7400 DK)

69 Targets (2nd in NFL), 45 Receptions (3rd), 11 yards per reception, 242 YAC (1st), Four TDs.

I just don’t see how you do not roster Cooper Kupp this week. The Falcons defense has certainly seen better days. They are the worst team in the NFL in getting to the QB, logging only five sacks through their first six. An ineffective pass rush combined with a very beatable secondary would yield a Falcons defense that his given up over 331 yards through the air over their last three games. Cooper Kupp averages 11 receptions per game and is so good after the catch. He is Jared Goff’s go to, who I also expect to have his best game in 2019.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8000 FD|$7800 DK)

56 Targets (5th in league), 40 Receptions (5th in league), 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

It looks like everyone is going to hit the snooze button on Deandre Hopkins, but if I were you I would absolutely keep him in your player pool. He is going to sneak up on us one of these slates where he is sub 10% owned, like this week. He has an excellent matchup and even despite his lackluster fantasy performance as of late, he still see’s a 28% target share within the offense, fourth best in the NFL.

NFL DFS WR: T.Y. Hilton (IND) ($7600 FD|$5900 DK)

30 Targets, 24 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Four TDs. 36% RZ target share**

I want to start out by saying that I think T.Y. Hilton is grossly underpriced on DK given his history against the Houston Texans. In 14 career games, Hilton averages nine targets, five receptions, and 103 yards per game. Houston consistently gets burned by WR’s in 2019 (Thomas, Allen, Ridley, Hill, and even Ginn Jr.) so I’m more than okay with eating the chalk here. You just can’t ignore what he has done in the past and what he is doing this season, he is the Colts one true weapon and I expect a big Sunday.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen ($7500 FD|$6700 DK), Adam Thielen ($7100 FD|$6900 DK).

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Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: D.J. Chark Jr. (JAX) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

44 Targets, 30 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, Five TDs. Fourth most deep targets in NFL (13).

Grand Master Minshew had a bit of a the struggle last week in what ended up being a defensive slug fest. I fully expect a bounce back from the rookie QB and there couldn’t be a better spot than against the Bengals. Cincinnati isn’t as bad through the air (241 YPG) as they are against the rush (184 YPG), but still bad enough in coverage that I can see D.J. Chark continue his dominance. It is also worth noting Dede Westbrook is listed as a game-time decision on Sunday, James O’Shaugnessy TE OUT, and George Swain TE OUT. Rookie TE Josh Oliver will see his first career start.

NFL DFS WR: Robert Woods ($7300 FD|$5900 DK)/Brandin Cooks ($6700 FD|$5400 DK) (LAR)

Woods: 51 targets, 31 receptions, 11 yards per catch, one TD.

Cooks: 37 targets, 23 receptions, 15 yards per catch, one TD.

The same applies as I talked about with Cooper Kupp. Robert Woods is another receiver who is great with YAC (173) and gets his fair share of targets (51). Brandin Cooks is always boom or bust, but if he Booms for two deep bombs you’ll be on the outside looking in. Definitely worth a shot in tourneys, I would alternate between the three Rams receivers in multiple lineups.

NFL DFS TE: Evan Engram (NYG) ($6800 FD|$6500 DK)

48 targets, 33 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

If you’re wanting to spend up at tight end in Week Seven , Evan Engram is your top option. If you don’t know by now, the Arizona Cardinals are the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends, allowing nearly 25 FPTS per game. The Cardinals do get Patrick Peterson back, which will certainly help, but they’ve struggled for a couple years against the position, even when he is healthy.

NFL DFS TE: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6500 FD|$6600 DK)

I put Tyler Lockett in here just so I can advise you not to play him. Marlon Humphrey is like super glue and has shut down the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Sammy Watkins. Tyler Lockett is no where near the caliber of the first two listed so I can see Marlon shutting this guy down easily, forcing the ball to DK Metcalf who I actually do like. He will draw softer coverage and the Ravens have been bad against WR2. Marcus Peters was traded to the Ravens and will play on Sunday, bolstering a weaker secondary.

NFL DFS TE: George Kittle (SF) ($7100 FD|$6700 DK)

88% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, One TD.

George Kittle is a premier tight end option on a week to week basis. I’m not crazy about the spend up but if you’re looking for a safe floor, he is a good option with Deebo Samuel out this Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5600 FD|$6100 DK)

99% Snap Share. 52 targets, 35 receptions, 12 yards per recption, Two TDs.

The outing between the Giants and Cardinals screams pass funnel game. These two teams are both in the bottom three in terms of passing yards per game. They are also two of the fastest paced offense in the 2019 season. There’s a lot of love to go around with Christian Kirk slated to play, and David Johnson said he will be good to go for Sunday. I will have exposure to all three key offensive pieces in tournaments, including Kyler Murray.

NFL DFS WR: DK Metcalf (SEA) ($6200 FD|$4800 DK)

31 Targets, 16 Receptions, 21 yards per reception (1st in NFL), Two Tds.

I’m a bit nervous about this play, I really need to see how Marcus Peters lines up with the defense, but it’s hard to say at this point. The Ravens are prone to giving up huge plays, particularly to the WR2 position. Seattle is 17th in the league in terms of big plays and Baltimore is giving up an average of 6.3 yards per play, third worst in the league.

NFL DFS WR: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6700 FD|$4900 DK)

47 Targets, 33 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m pretty sure I’d rather spend only $100 more for Evan Engram on FD, but love Mark Andrews low price on DK. He hasn’t seen less than seven targets in any game this season and logged another healthy week of practice. Hollywood Brown will likely not start this game, increasing Andrews target share. The Seahawks give up the fourth most FPTS to opposing tight ends (15.4 FPTS per game).

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5500 FD|$5300 DK)

38 Targets, 27 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

I want exposure on the Atlanta side of this high implied total with the Rams vs. Falcons, but I’m not interested in spending up for Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley has seen a steady share of targets (one game with less than six targets) and should see at the very least see another six targets in a game where Atlanta is going to have to rely on their passing game to keep up with the average of five TDs per game that the defense has given up over their last three games.

NFL DFS TE: Austin Hooper (ATL) ($6600 FD|$5300 DK)

51 targets, 42 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Atlanta won’t be running the ball this game and Matt Ryan is averaging close to 50 throws per game, Hooper should plenty of looks at home. Austin Hooper has only one game with less than six targets.

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($5900 FD|$5500 DK)

Josh Allen has been an absolute monster against the Dolphins, averaging 300 yards per game through the air, and over 100 yards on the ground. John Brown can take the top off of any defense and Miami, as we all know, is bottom three in every statistical category on defense. I question how often the Bills throw in this game, but I can see Brown easily reaching value with a big play or two.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd (CIN) ($5600 FD|$5600 FD), Auden Tate (5900 FD|$4500 DK)

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Zay Jones (OAK) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

Near min price on both sites, lining up at the WR1 for Oakland with no Tyrell Williams.

NFL DFS WR: Allen Lazard (GBP) ($4500 FD|$3000 DK)

Minimum price on both sites, lining up at the WR1 position for Green Bay with Devante Adams out, Marquez Valdes-Scantling doubtful, and Geronimo Allison ruled out.

NFL DFS TE: Josh Oliver (JAX) ($4000 FD|$2900 DK)

Josh Oliver is below minimum price on both sites and will be the lone tight end with James O’Shaugnessy and George Swaim confirmed out this week. The absence of Dede Westbrook would be a huge boost for the rookie tight end making his 2019 season debut. Oliver should have an immediate role in the Jacksonville offense.

Honorable Mention: Cole Beasley ($5600 FD|$4700 DK) Dante Pettis ($5100 FD|$4100 DK)

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Week Seven is upon us and the impending return of some key players is yet again in play. Last week hopefully you took my advice and beat the crowd to using Tyreek Hill while avoiding Alvin Kamara. In this iteration of the DFS Week Seven Injury Report I’ll once again touch on several players and their respective injuries.

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DeSean Jackson

In the middle of last week Jackson’s injury on the report changed from “groin” to “abdomen” which was unexpected but makes some sense. A muscle injury like Jackson’s can involve any of the muscles that attach to the pelvis from the leg or abdomen. Typically these can take anywhere from four to six weeks to heal, so I do not expect Jackson to play this week, but check with me again later this week. If he made some quick improvements over the weekend, I may be wrong.

Update: Jackson did not practice on Wednesday and in my estimation still seems a week or two away from returning. This abdomen injury is much more serious than the Eagles want to admit. Check back later this week to confirm he has not made unexpected improvements.

Patrick Mahomes

This one is driving me a bit batty as the general public has come together and decided as a unit that Mahomes’ ankle is damaged. The bottom line is that it was not taped on Sunday, his lateral mobility looked excellent, and he said himself after the game that it was not re-injured. Is the ankle bothering him some? It very well could be, but he is the exception to the rule when it comes to injury (as he is for most other things). His arm strength is so incredible that he does not need to step into his throws onto that ankle to be accurate. In fact, he’s made his mark in the league for more than a year now by doing exactly the opposite.The guy has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game this year and in Week Four Rushed for 54 yards. What else do you want from him to prove that he’s healthy? Confidently use in in the Showdown slates this Thursday as this offense continues to hum despite two consecutive losses.

Update: Talking heads continue to make a mess of Mahomes’ health. I suppose there aren’t enough news stories to fill all of the hours in a day. Below is a thread with former Chiefs Physical Therapist and Athletic Trainer, Aaron Borgmann. He and I remain in lock step on the severity (or lack thereof) of Mahomes’ injury. Most importantly, Monday’s estimated practice report listed Mahomes as a full participant. If Mahomes does not perform well tonight, it will not be because of a “bad ankle”.

https://twitter.com/RehabAllStar/status/1184819802520596484?s=20

Saquon Barkley

Week Seven marks Barkley’s first legitimate chance at playing on Sunday, as he hits the four week mark since his high ankle sprain. He’ll still have to practice in full at least once this week for me to be confident in his recovery, but if he suits up, expect the Saquon we all know and love. Don’t worry about re-injury.

Update: Barkley was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. I have no reservations about firing him up this week.

Evan Engram

Engram sprained his MCL in Week Five and was not able to play against the Patriots in Week Six. Typically these injuries take anywhere from one to three weeks to heal, but it all depends on his ability to stabilize the knee while cutting and running. If I report that Engram is able to practice this week, he has a shot at playing on Sunday.

Update: Barkley’s teammate also practiced in full on Wednesday. The only reservation I have on Engram is his history of MCL sprains. Given his specific circumstances, I would not be shocked if a re-injury occurs. However, he’s a fine play this week given the matchup.

Josh Gordon

According to the Patriots, Gordon avoided serious injury to his knee on Thursday, but was unable to return. This tells us quite a bit about the pain he was experiencing, as you would think he would do all he can to bolster that constantly thinning receiving corps. As such, I wouldn’t expect Gordon to suit up this week if we’re treating this as a traditional MCL sprain.

Update: The Patriots notoriously give reporters and writers alike headaches with their secretive style as it relates to team related issues. As a result, injuries are especially difficult to project. However, it is of note that Gordon did not practice on Tuesday. I’m not optimistic he plays this week.

Davante Adams

Next on the DFS Week Seven Injury Report is Davante Adams. Adams’ injury is much worse than the Packers let on a few weeks ago. Adams himself came out recently and told the media that there is ligament damage to his toe on MRI, automatically staging it as a grade II. A grade II turf toe problem can take anywhere from three to six weeks to heal, and with the Packers sitting pretty with only one loss this season, I don’t expect them to rush Adams back just 24 days after the sprain. Unless he practices in full this week, don’t expect Adams back until Week Eight at the earliest.

Update: Adams continues to be sidelined. Do not expect him back until Week Eight at the earliest.

Amari Cooper

Cooper suffered a thigh contusion on Sunday and did not return to the game. To make matters worse the contusion is of his quadriceps, which are responsible for extending the knee and bending the hip. Well, receivers need to do these motions repeatedly with no pain or limitations, which is exactly what a contusion causes. Contusions are much more painful than they are given credit for and I would not be surprised if Cooper misses Week Seven. Check back with me on his practice reports to confirm this.

Update: Cooper was out of practice Wednesday and I would not expect him to play this week.

Mid Week Additions

Todd Gurley and Malcom Brown

Gurley was not at practice again on Wednesday. Given his absence and the report of a contusion to the knee, I would not expect him to play this week unless he manages to get in at least a limited a practice this week. His teammate, Malcom Brown, missed practice on Wednesday, so check back with me later this week for further details. It may finally be Darrell Henderson SZN.

Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling

With a quick turnaround, Allison may not clear the concussion protocol before Sunday. That leaves his teammate, Valdes-Scantling as the lone starter remaining available if he is able to give it a go after a knee and ankle injury on Monday night. MVS returned in the fourth quarter for a big play, so that gives me guarded optimism he’ll suit up Sunday despite missing practice on Thursday.

That will do it for the DFS Week Seven Injury Report. Make sure to check back in with me as updates begin to roll in today and as always, follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.

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