Week 3 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Eagles at Cowboys

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Jalen Hurts (FD $16,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (FD $12,000, DK $12,600)

Contrarian #2: DeVonta Smith(FD $10,500, DK $10,800)

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

FanDuel and DraftKings actually have Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts flip-flopped for the top-priced player, so that could some into play in determining who’s chalkier on either site. Hurts has the better matchup overall, but the Cowboys are favored by 3 points. We can probably pencil in Hurts at captain since he should have plenty of time to throw and use his legs, and I think Prescott is too expensive given both Amari Cooper‘s ribs issue (he’ll play with a flak jacket on and is a risk to reaggravate the injury) and the emergence of both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Prescott’s huge Week 1. Playing Eagles WR DeVonta Smith at Captain could allow us to Hurts and a couple big-time Dallas players.

Eagles notes: Hurts is the main target for me because of what he can do with his legs as well. I’m interested in getting exposure to one or both of the Eagles TEs, though the production from Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz is just difficult to predict. The tight ends will have to be more involved than last Sunday, when Goedert didn’t have his first catch until the second half and finished the just two receptions (on two targets) for 24 yards. Ertz is off the COVID list now, and had just one reception (one target) for 6 yards in Week 2, but could see 3-5 targets this week. I don’t think Miles Sanders is a huge priority this week, though I might grab some Kenneth Gainwell exposure as a cheap play in a negative game script. Smith is the best option at WR, but I’ll have shares of Jalen Reagor given his upside.

Cowboys notes: We may be able to get away without Prescott, but there are avenues where we get both him and Hurts in some lineups. Ezekiel Elliott might be the top play from a contrarian perspective this week. I have little interest in Cooper, and will get most of my WR exposure with CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson. Pollard could be used as a WR as well, and I think both he and Zeke are in play this week for the Cowboys against the Eagles run defense. I’ll also have shares of Blake Jarwin and kicker Greg Zuerlein.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 51-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Dak Prescott
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. DeVonta Smith
5. CeeDee Lamb
6. Dallas Goedert
7. Jalen Reagor
8. Miles Sanders
9. Amari Cooper (ribs)
10. Kenneth Gainwell
11. Tony Pollard
12. Cedrick Wilson
13. Dalton Schultz
14. Blake Jarwin
15. Quez Watkins
16. Greg Zuerlein
17. Zach Ertz
18. Jake Elliott
19. Eagles DST
20. Cowboys DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!