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AETY Model

NFL DFS: Stix Picks for Divisional Weekend

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed a big first weekend of NFL Playoff DFS and ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Divisional Round slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only 4 games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – No surprise here. This is a must-win game for Kansas City and they’re not going to mess around. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will rely heavily on their passing game to move the football against Cleveland’s 25th ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Mahomes has one of the highest AETY Model projections for a Quarterback all season. He’s easily my top option for cash and GPP builds.
Baker Mayfield – The total in this game is 57 points… the next highest total on the full-weekend slate is five points lower at 52. I want all of the exposure I can to this Chiefs/Browns game and I love what Mayfield opens up from a roster build perspective. Granted, he has nowhere near the upside of a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, but he’s also $2K cheaper than all of them on DraftKings and over $1K cheaper on FanDuel.

I’ll likely only use Baker Mayfield in GPP formats.

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Nick Chubb – Exposure to the Kansas City / Cleveland game is going to be the theme of this article. Stefanski and this league-leading running scheme are going to run Chubb into the ground on Sunday and I’ll want all of the exposure I can afford.

Kansas City ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and again, Cleveland is one of the most efficient running teams in the NFL. Kareem Hunt at a discount is also in a great spot, but I’m all aboard the Chubb train.
Cam Akers – Just like last week, lock in Cam Akers. He’s likely the only running back on this slate that will sniff 22+ touches and he’s priced under $6K on DraftKings and right at $7K on FanDuel. Green Bay’s defense has been quite stingy of late but they can certainly be carved up via the run… especially with a Sean McVay outside-zone.
Devin Singletary – Absolutely gross and makes me want to not play NFL DFS this weekend, but Singletary is simply way too cheap for a starting running back with zero talent behind him on the depth chart pushing for playing time. Singletary is a lock for me in cash games, but I think a GPP fade is warranted.

Having said that, I have no problem if you just take the value with Singletary in every build, just don’t expect a lot. I’d much rather pivot to Hunt in GPP.

Honorable Mention: JK Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill – Tyreek is back and 100% healthy for a matchup against a below average Cleveland secondary. Mahomes and company will scheme Tyreek open and he leads all wide receivers with the shortest odds to score (-200)… and no, I didn’t forget about Davante Adams. Get exposure to Kansas City and Cleveland.
Stefon Diggs – Too much volume on a weekly basis to ignore. With the minimal threat of Buffalo beating Baltimore via the run, I do anticipate Baltimore to bracket Diggs and keep him to an average game at best, he just has too much volume in their offense.
Michael Thomas – His price is criminally low. Load him up as we likely cannot afford Alvin Kamara. Thomas is going to be a priority for me for my Saints’ exposure piece.
Jarvis Landry / Marquise Brown – They’re WR1s priced in the mid-$5K range on DraftKings. Take the layup when offered. I prefer Landry by a nose to game-stack the highest total game on the slate, but not many have the ceiling Hollywood Brown offers.

Value: With Sammy Watkins OUT, Mecole Hardman is my interesting punt play of the weekend. DeMarcus Robinson also in-play, but I prefer Hardman’s route-running, speed, and the cheaper price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews – Excellent matchup against Buffalo who consistently struggle to cover the tight-end, even with Matt Milano back for Buffalo. Hell, Jack Doyle just went nuts on them, lol.
Austin Hooper – Is this a double tight-end week of Kelce/Hooper game-stacks? It very well has my attention at the moment. Hooper is very affordable on both sites and lead the Browns in targets last week in addition to what already was a rising target share over the past month since returning from injury.

Hooper is in an excellent spot against Kansas City in a gamescript where Cleveland will likely be chasing points. I love this Cleveland running game, but also want exposure to their red-zone threats (Hooper and Landry).

Good luck to all this weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Wild Card Weekend

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their first week of the new year and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only six games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson – AETY’s overall QB1 on this Saturday-Sunday slate and the ONLY QB I’ll play in the Sunday only slate. Tennessee’s defense is absolutely dreadful (mainly against the pass and yes, Baltimore struggles via the pass, but I’m all in Lamar).
Josh Allen – We want a quarterbacks with rushing upside on this slate or we want a quarterback who is going to chuck it 38+ times. Josh Allen fits both of those molds. He’s an absolute elite play on any slate so there’s no reason to look elsewhere (ESPECIALLY ON THE SATURDAY SLATE).

My only concern here is how Allen has never really performed well in a big game. He absolutely fell apart against a bad Houston defense in the playoffs last year. This Colts’ defense is much, much better than Houston was last year and they will capitalize on any mistakes Allen makes.

Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger

Cash Game Player Pool: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara – Easily the top play on the Weekend’s slate for me. Assuming he’s healthy and good to go, lock him in on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I still love him, but he may warrant a fade there if you’d rather spend your money elsewhere.
Derrick Henry – tough matchup against the 12th ranked run defense in terms of DVOA, but it’s Derrick Henry. He’s certainly not cheap, so if you’re using him, you’re going to need 100+ and a score on the ground because it’s impossible to get many other studs in your build with Henry in there.
Nyheim Hines (DraftKings) – On a small slate we need to get different and Hines is likely to be one of those guys for me. He has a floor of 10+ points and I like this game’s ability to be up pace.

My strategy here is using a lot of Hines on the Saturday only slate and mix him in a little bit on full slate. Jonathan Taylor would be the stone cold lock for me in cash games, so don’t think I forgot about him.
Cam Akers – He’s going to be extremely popular at the low price points on both sites, but he’s one of two running backs on this slate who has 25-touch potential (Derrick Henry).
James Conner – Just a low owned, value play for the Saturday-Sunday slate. Cleveland really struggles to cover pass catching running backs and we know that’s Conner’s main role. If Pittsburgh gives him the goal-line work, Conner can be a difference maker in NFL DFS this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones, Chris Carson

Cash Game Player Pool: Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Nyheim Hines, James Conner

Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

Stefon Diggs – The most targeted player in the NFL in a win or go home playoff game… Indianapolis’ pass defense is one of the better in the NFL but they will be without starting cornerback, Rock Ya-Sin. I’m sure we’ll see a lot of zone defense concepts on Saturday with potential bracket coverage on Diggs, but his volume is second to none.

I don’t think we can fade him at all on the Saturday only slate, but if you’re looking to get off of Diggs on the Saturday-Sunday, there’s a lot more options available to you on that Sunday slate. I personally, don’t think I can fade Diggs.
Michael Thomas – Simply way too cheap on both DraftKings and Fanduel and should have a very soft matchup on the inside of the Bears’ defense with Duke Shelley getting the start for an injured Buster Skrine. New Orleans is tied with Buffalo for the second highest implied team total on this slate, so I’m loving the idea of using Kamara and Thomas together.
Chris Godwin – With Mike Evans banged up and an excellent pass rush for Washington, this should be a blast from the pass type of gamescript for Tom Brady. Instead of Julian Edelman being the recipient of 10+ targets, Chris Godwin should be in line for a massive workload in the shorter, inside routes against Jimmy Moreland.
Tyler Lockett – I’ve been all over Lockett the past couple of weeks and it finally paid dividends last Sunday. I’m going right back to the well this weekend because I simply will not mess with Jaylen Ramsey.
Marquise Brown – We preach speedy wideouts against the Titans’ secondary every single week. Hollywood has been finding his form recently and should have plenty of opportunities in the highest total game on the weekend’s slate. When Hollywood lines up with Malcolm Butler, it’s going to be showtime.
Allen Robinson – Surprised Robinson is going to be so low in ownership this weekend in a game where the Bears will be chasing points all game long. I think Robinson is in for a big workload and finds a way to come up with 9-10 receptions against the weaker spot of a great, New Orleans defense.
Juju Smith-Schuster – M.J. Stewart is arguably the worst cover corner on this slate. JuJu is cheap and has looked like a new player since the whole dancing on the logos issue caught steam.
Zach Pascal / Michael Pittman – Cheap, un-owned exposure to the Colts-Bills game is something I’m extremely interested in. I likely will not make a Saturday-only lineup without one of these guys. Obviously, don’t use them both together, that’s just asking for trouble.

On the full weekend slate, I’ll lower my exposure to them both significantly, but I still think this is a smash spot. Pascal opening the weekend with a 40.5 yard receiving prop against Bills’ nickel-corner, Taron Johnson is something I love to see. You just can’t find much better educated value at $3,700 on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Diontae Johnson, Corey Davis, John Brown, Cooper Kupp (if Goff returns), Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight Ends (Cash and GPP)

Mark Andrews – Tennessee is dead last in DVOA against the tight-end and no one on this slate has the ceiling of Andrews. Andrews is far and away my top tight-end target this weekend.
Logan Thomas – Tight-end is a bit of a wasteland outside of Andrews and Thomas. Thomas is a stone cold lock for 8+ targets and I cannot ignore that type of volume.

Honorable Mention: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Rob Gronkowski

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS lineups!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 17 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

I hope everyone had a happy holiday season and a wonderful start to their new year! Loved seeing all of the screenshots of wins last week. Always nice to come back to see everyone winning! Lets get back to it and are dive into a crazy 15-game Week 17 NFL DFS main slate.
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 17, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

CHALK REPORT: Ty Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Jon Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and George Kittle project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Crunched for time this week so just listing off the players in my cash pool:

Top QB Targets

Lamar Jackson – save for cash, but blowout potential in this one. Lamar will go balls to the wall to win this game, let’s just hope it stays close to keep him in all four quarters.
Ryan Tannehill – Top play for me. Houston’s defense is awful, we just smashed with Brandon Allen last week, lol.
Aaron Rodgers – No one as safe as Rodgers in hopes to close out his MVP season and a first round BYE.

Value QB Targets

4. Drew Lock – Any opportunity to pick on the Raiders’ defense

5. Kirk Cousins – Expecting a Vikings’ pass attack onslaught

Running Backs

Derrick Henry
Jonathan Taylor – Has the ability to put up Henry-like numbers today against a Jacksonville team that has no interest in winning a football game.
Myles Gaskin – AETY Model likes his chances at garnering the third most touches on this slate in a must-win game for the Dolphins. Workload/Volume is incredibly important in NFL DFS cash game builds.
Melvin Gordon – Don’t use him with Drew Lock in cash, but great price for a three-down back against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL (it’s them or Houston, lol).
Wayne Gallman – Vander Esch is one of the key run-stoppers for Dallas and he again will miss this game. Expect the Giants to lean on Gallman for 16+ touches in a must-win game.
Ty Montgomery – Disgusting, but there’s no running back healthy for New Orleans. He should be a lock for 3-5 catches, but don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill gets the goal-line work.
Malcolm Brown – Cam Akers may suit up but my guess is that’s for an emergency backup role. Brown should get a ton of touches in a game the Rams must win to have playoff hopes.

Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Rodney Smith, Ty Johnson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams
Justin Jefferson
Robert Woods – only game in town for the Rams if you’re not using Malcolm Brown
AJ Brown – matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the highest total game on the slate… yes, please.
Tyler Lockett – San Francisco secondary is extremely banged up and this is the perfect buy-low week for Lockett who’s price dropped significantly on NFL DFS slates.
Laviska Shenault – Too cheap for the WR1 in JAX in a game they’ll be chasing points from the get-go.
Jerry Jeudy – AETY expects his target share to be ~30% for the day… at $4,200 on DraftKings sign me up.

Value WRs
Marquez Callaway – my preferred punt at the WR position.
Josh Reynolds – meh
Richie James

Tight Ends

George Kittle
Darren Waller
Jonnu Smith
Irv Smith
Jordan Akins
Noah Fant

*Defense is all over the board today with multiple teams sitting their starters. Most of my builds go to Jets or the Browns*

NFL DFS Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Ty Montgomery
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Richie James
TE: Jordan Akins
Flex: Jonathan Taylor
DST: New York Jets

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 16

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their Holidays thus far and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS GPP Week 16 slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

**This article is not meant to tell you about how good of a spot Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Le’Veon Bell are in. They’re arguably in one of the best spots they’ve been in all year and I’d never tell you to fade that. If the Chiefs are the core of your GPP lineups, you’re probably in a great spot.**

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

DeShaun Watson – This game against Cincinnati is likely to be an ugly shootout with very little defense. The AETY Model loves this game’s ability to go well over the current total of 44 points and provide plenty of fantasy upside.

To start, the Bengals’ defense is trash. Secondly, DeShaun Watson has one of the highest floors and ceilings in all of fantasy football. Lastly, you can run a Texans’ stack back with so so many value options such as: Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green (the AETY Model’s top value plays).

At home, in the dome, let’s get some DeShaun Watson exposure.

Possible Gamestack:
Watson – David Johnson – Brandin Cooks – Gio Bernard – Tee Higgins
Brandon Allen – It’s disgusting, but this is a prime matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and an even better price of $4,800 on DraftKings. We mentioned earlier how much AETY loves the value plays of Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green… we kinda need to like Brandon Allen then as well.

Better yet, the Texans defense is going to be the highest owned defense on this slate. Let’s use Brandon Allen and a value play or two on the Bengals side and shove that leverage down all of the chalk donkeys who play Houston’s defense. No more playing games, it’s Week 16.

You can afford the world by doing this as well… go get your Chiefs’ studs or whatever game you really want exposure to.
Russell Wilson – Remember the last time the Rams and Seahawks matched up in Week 10 and every fantasy relevant skill player was 15% or higher in ownership? Well, that matchup let a lot of people down and now with Mahomes and the Chiefs in such a good spot, it appears this game is going to go way under the radar.

If you’re going to let me play a 1-5% owned Russell Wilson at home in a meaningful game, I’m all for it.
Jared Goff – Do not forget about the value in Jared Goff on the other side of this Seahawks game. The Seahawks’ secondary has improved significantly, but they’re still bottom-10 in pass defense DVOA. With Cam Akers out, the AETY Model thinks Darrel Henderson is an easy fade and that the Rams drop back to pass over 40 times on Sunday. Do not expect McVay and company to come out flat again this week.

You know who to play in your Seattle/Rams stacks.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Melvin Gordon – I’m all in on Melvin Gordon this week without Phillip Lindsay in the lineup. Revenge game narrative, a matchup with an awful Chargers’ defense, and overall, Melvin has been quite effective with the football of late. Let’s roll.
Miles Sanders – Sanders and Chubb are the most talented running backs on this slate and they’re both significantly lower in ownership than guys like David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Sanders’ will be the feature of the Philadelphia offense on Sunday against a Dallas defense missing two of the best run stoppers. He’s going to run wild.
Nick Chubb – With all of the Browns’ players out due to COVID-19, Chubb may literally get 30 touches despite being in a bit of a timeshare with Kareem Hunt. Hunt is probably the best wide receiver on this active Browns’ roster… maybe he’ll spend most of his day lined up outside and leave the majority of the backfield duties to Nick Chubb.
Giovani Bernard – Just here for Bengals’ value pieces, lol. After getting 25 carries last week, I trust that Gio is Zac Taylor’s bellcow for the rest of this season. Houston’s defense is hot garbage so let’s take the over in this game and get some value pieces in our lineups. I certainly don’t like Bernard as much on FanDuel as I do on DraftKings for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Kareem Hunt

*I don’t need to discuss David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Remember: read the cash game article first… those guys are all elite plays this week and will be VERY popular.*

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson – 30% target share against the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bears are in a must-win game and will not mess around here against Jacksonville. Robinson is a lock for 8+ targets and offers a lot of red-zone equity.
Cooper Kupp – this game is going to shootout a bit and I love Kupp’s splits against this Seattle defense. With no Cam Akers, the AETY Model says Kupp is in line for 10+ targets on Sunday. I’m definitely skeptical with that volume projection, but when in doubt, trust the numbers and trust this matchup against Seattle’s secondary.
Tee Higgins – He is a wide receiver one going up against Vernon Hargreaves priced like a low-end WR2. No need to overthink this one.
AJ Green – will also see plenty of Hargreaves and is just way too cheap on DraftKings for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Sammy Watkins – I don’t ever love Watkins, but if Tyreek Hill is a little banged up, Watkins is a great source for cheap, low-owned exposure to the best offense in the NFL.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews – Only one on this slate with the ceiling of Travis Kelce.
Zach Ertz – While everyone goes to Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz is seeing plenty of snaps and targets at a career-low price… I’ll take a shot on Ertz with this banged up Dallas defense.
Hayden Hurst – Cheapest run back on the other side of your Kansas City stacks. Tight ends have had some big games against this Kansas City secondary and we don’t need much from Hurst at this price point.

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Thanks a ton to Adam for filling in the past two weeks while I was out of town for my bachelor party then strictly prepping for the DraftKings World Championship! I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a wonderful holiday season thus far! Lets get back to it and are dive into a nice 10-game Week 16 NFL DFS slate. Also, good luck to everyone who made their season long Championships!!

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 16, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

CHALK REPORT: David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, and Travis Kelce project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST ONE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. It’s surprisingly a decent spread on ownership this week.
Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – He’s the most pricey quarterback on the slate and likely the highest in ownership. We don’t care about either of those things this week. It’s Patrick Mahomes, at home, against a banged up Atlanta Falcons secondary who are giving up an expected minimum of 290 passing yards. Not to mention the Chiefs just lost their lead running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Mahomes and this passing attack are going to go nuts.
Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – If you need some savings, ride the hot hand of Jalen Hurts against Dallas. Both of these teams have been playing and an impressive quick pace and should offer little-to-no defense. Hurts clearly is a more than just a Taysom Hill like quarterback as Pederson and company called over 40 pass plays last week. They trust this kid and so should you.
Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need a value play, look no further than Trubisky against the 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA). Jacksonville is an absolute trash football team right now and clearly will be trying to lose this game to sure up the #1 overall draft pick.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert

Running Backs

David Montgomery ($7,700 DK / $7,800 FD) – Extremely valuable on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings, but likely to be the highest owned running back on both sites. Montgomery has been on fire lately and likely won’t be slowed down in this matchup against Jacksonville. I don’t think Montgomery is a must-play (on DraftKings), but he’s likely the top-dog running back on a small Week 16 NFL DFS slate.

Personally, give me the guy below him.
Miles Sanders ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – On a small slate with not a whole lot of running back talent, I will make sure to roster one of the most talented runners on the slate (toss up between Sanders and Nick Chubb). In this case, I’m going with Miles Sanders on both sites due to the significant discount. Doug Pederson is done getting cute and not unleashing Miles Sanders as he’s racked up over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks.

In a game with no defense, give me all of the Miles Sanders I can get against the 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – ALL THE WAY IN ON MELVIN GORDON.
– Revenge game
– No Philip Lindsay
– The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL
– The Meme Play of Week 16

https://twitter.com/StixPicks/status/1342876494297767942

4. Le’Veon Bell ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – With no CEH, Le’Veon Bell is an easy freesquare this week. Personally, I don’t think he’s a must play either, but this is a very affordable way to get exposure to the best offense on this slate (by a mile). If he’s going to be 40% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership, it won’t hurt to roster Bell. A double-digit, home-favorite running back is something we always invest in.

5. Gio Bernard ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a Houston defense that absolutely bleeds fantasy points to opposing running backs and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Yikes.

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – Too expensive for me, but it’s hard not to love the only game in town for the Atlanta Falcons, especially when they’ll be chasing points all game long.
Allen Robinson ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – His pricing on FanDuel makes zero sense so absolutely lock him in over there and likely do the same on DraftKings. This is a must-win game for the Bears (I find it very hard to believe this game will even be close) but they’ll get Allen Robinson going early in this game and take advantage of the worst secondary in the NFL.
Jarvis Landry ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Keep an eye on this game’s status with Cleveland having COVID-19 issues, but if it goes, Landry is in another elite spot on the inside of the Jets’ 29th ranked pass defense. Cleveland is in a must-win game and won’t hesitate to score at will to start this game.
Robert Woods ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Cooper Kupp ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – We have picked on Seattle’s secondary all year long and I refuse to quit now after a few poor weeks from the Rams’ offense. McVay will be on a mission to right the ship this week and I’m expecting a big output for the Rams’ passing attack with Cam Akers out with an injury.
Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) & AJ Green ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – No Tyler Boyd = load up on Tee Higgins and/or AJ Green. I strongly prefer the upside in Tee Higgins who will see a lot of Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, but you can certainly punt down to AJ Green as well if you don’t use Higgins. Houston’s defense as a whole is trash.
Jamison Crowder ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Not in love with the play, but if this game stays on schedule for Sunday, Crowder’s price is way too low for the expected target share against a poor Cleveland secondary.

Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is OUT), Cam Sims

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce and it’s a matchup against the Falcons (27th in DVOA against opposing tight ends), but most of all, it’s Travis Kelce.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK ONLY) – He needs to be priced up over $6K. If you can’t afford Kelce, Mark Andrews is a clear number two option here at the tight end position.
Logan Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Helluva price hike over the past few weeks but this dude is just an absolute target machine (regardless of who plays QB). Better yet, Terry McLaurin is likely out for this matchup. Thomas will be a busy man on Sunday.

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Washington Football Team
Houston Texans
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Jamison Crowder
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Miles Sanders
DST: Denver Broncos

Good luck this week!

3 years ago 0 comment

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NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

For this week, Stix won't be bringing you the Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown. I'm Adam Strangis and covering for Stix this week as he's away. Don't worry, we'll still hit everything that Stix usually does and put you on the right path to green in Week 14! We have a very large slate, but it's important...

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 13

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” HUGE Week 12 at Win Daily for our NFL DFS GPP lineups and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 13. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 13

Minnesota Vikings (24.82)
Green Bay Packers (24.05)
Tennessee Titans (22.31)
Los Angeles Rams (22.30)
New Orleans Saints (22.02)

My Personal Top Stacks:

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers – All in on Rodgers and the Packers’ offense against the Eagles’ putrid secondary. The Eagles will bring an excellent pass rush so this is no cakewalk for Rodgers and company, but on a Sunday as ugly as this one, I’m going to invest heavily in the best quarterback on the slate.
Mitch Trubisky – Yes, let’s go down to the salary savings of Mitch Trubisky and this Bears offense. As mentioned in the cash game article, Trubisky absolutely destroys the Lions’ defense, historically. The Lions’ defense as a whole is decimated with injuries and also do not have Matt Patricia slowing down the pace of their offense.

This game will be sloppy, but it will produce some fantasy fireworks for our NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Ryan Tannehill – Low key, Tannehill and the Titans’ offense play at a very high pace despite giving Derrick Henry 22+ carriers per game. A high-paced offense is something I’ll always be interested in with my GPP builds… especially when that team is going virtually un-owned (outside of Derrick Henry).

Vegas has this game kicking off with the highest total on the slate and surprisingly it’s not drawing a lot of ownership in DFS.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Chris Carson – Carson is in for a full workload this week after seeing how useless Carlos Hyde was with 15 touches last week in addition to nursing a toe injury. We love playing double digit home-favorite running backs, so why is there no love for a 3-down back like Chris Carson?
Miles Sanders – I always pick on the Green Bay running defense and this happens to be the perfect run back for my favorite stack of the Packers.
Myles Gaskin – There’s literally no one else behind him that will take away snaps. Miami is a big favorite against a Bengals team that has absolutely nothing to play for. Gaskin will likely be popular, but not nearly as much as Montgomery and Booker.
Kareem Hunt – Just a conviction play to go on the other side of my Titans’ stacks (when I cannot afford Nick Chubb). I really love this spot for both Browns’ running backs.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Damien Harris, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams – He’s not sneaky whatsoever, but give me all of the Davante Adams this week.
Allen Robinson – If he’s 100% healthy and good to go, the Lions’ secondary is absolutely destroyed right now. Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah (the top two corners in Detroit) are both out (Trufant on IR)… this is going to be a field day for Robinson and the Bears.
AJ Brown – I don’t know what else AJ Brown has to do to get more love in the DFS world. He’s one of the highest ceiling wide receivers to put into your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
DJ Chark – He’s a top-end wide receiver priced at $5,400 on DraftKings against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Jaguars will be playing catch up all day on Sunday and that sets up for a busy day for DJ Chark.
Michael Pittman – All the way the hell in on Michael Pittman this weekend against a Bradley Roby-less, Houston Texans’ secondary. Read the cash game article if you need more on why I’m so high on Pittman.
Denzel Mims / Breshad Perriman – If you need some salary relief, one of these two will be my top choices. They both have extremely intriguing player props for such low salaries in DFS and have a juicy matchup against the Raiders’ secondary you know I love to pick on.

Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Corey Davis, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan – Packers’ stacks and a dude who is a lock to see 5+ targets and a great red-zone asset. Cheap exposure to my favorite game-stack.
TJ Hockenson – simply a low-owned, underpriced player as a run-back to my second favorite stack. Out of the tight-ends on this slate, no one other than Darren Waller have the floor Hockenson has.

Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

A hit and miss Week 12 for our NFL DFS Cash Games. If you followed the article and mixed in Jarvis Landry, you cashed. If you ate all of the chalk, you likely didn't. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid, yet somewhat ugly Week 13 slate.The pur...

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL Premium

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 12

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 12. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game bu...

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Games! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid Week 12 slate (without a lot of terrible games that are easy fades and just a few up-paced games where we really want to invest). Let’s go.

I’ve been under the weather recently so won’t be writing a whole lot about each player. Just DM on Twitter/Discord this week if you need to talk over your build with someone.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
CHALK REPORT: Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Brian Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST FOUR or FIVE of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – Always my favorite quarterback play on any slate. There’s really no one as safe and as consistent as Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think he’s a must play in cash this week, but I do think Travis Kelce is. Use one or the other or a combo of the two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.
Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – By far the highest owned quarterback on this slate in a high total game against a Chargers’ defense that will be missing both Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram. Chris Harris does return, but I don’t think this Chargers’ defense can stop a nosebleed these days, it’s wheels up for Allen and the Bills.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Hello, sweet, sweet savings (on DraftKings). Fitzpatrick gets the nod as Tua was recently ruled out with injury and also will be missing any threat of a quality running attack with no Salvon Ahmed or Myles Gaskin. This matchup against the Jets is the best matchup on paper for opposing quarterbacks (ranked 32 in pass defense DVOA) and will pose no threat for Fitzpatrick getting to 3x value on DraftKings.

As of now, he’s my personal cash game quarterback.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $11,000 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook in one of the best matchups all season. He’s on fire and a core piece of my DraftKings’ cash build. As for FanDuel, he’s hard to fade there as well (-400 odds to score a TD, lol), but he’s very expensive. If you can afford him, use him.
James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – Simply priced way too low for the workload he’s likely to receive with Chris Thompson out and Mike Glennon now under center. Cleveland’s defense is not what is was earlier in the season and will again be missing Myles Garret.

The Value Backs

Nyheim Hines ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brian Hill ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD)
Wayne Gallman ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Honestly, I’ll be locking in two of the above value backs because I’m locking in Travis Kelce and Dalvin Cook. If you don’t want to do that, I suggest you just use Hines and get creative with your build elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Keenan is simply on another planet this year and just insane weekly rapport with Justin Herbert. You all know how much I love to load up slot receivers against Buffalo’s Taron Johnson, so this is a matchup that should be fruitful.

I am interested to see how Sean McDermott and this defense try to scheme away Keenan Allen. There’s no chance they just let Taron Johnson get worked for four straight quarters. I’d imagine McDermott watched the Miami/Buffalo film and took notes on how Brian Flores used safeties to help out their awful slot corner, Nik Needham.

I think I’ll fade Keenan at 20% ownership in GPPs, but I’ll be quite interested in using him in NFL DFS cash games.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – Getting exposure to this Chargers/Bills game is going to be one of my higher priorities in all of my DFS lineups regardless of cash or GPP. You cannot go wrong with Stefon Diggs, especially when John Brown is out.
Justin Jefferson ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jefferson is likely to be the heaviest owned wide receiver on this slate with Adam Thielen likely missing this game due to COVID-19. I will likely fade him in tournaments but eat the chalk in cash games here against a well below-average Carolina secondary.

I don’t love using he and Dalvin Cook together but many times this year the double stack has been on the winning side of cash game lineups. It’s probably best you eat the chalk here as well.
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Simply way too cheap of a WR1 price-tag against the Jets’ secondary.
Jarvis Landry ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD) – Well, if you saw my whiskey-infused tweet the other night, you know how high I am on Jarvis Landry this weekend, lol. Tre Herndon is literally the only starting cornerback left on this active roster in Jacksonville… that is a problem. Landry should bust out in a massive way on Sunday as long as the Jaguars can keep this one somewhat close.
Laviska Shenault ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – He’s damn near min price on both sites with a 4.5 receptions prop. Despite what the quarterback situation is here, Shenault should be the focal point of whatever is left of the Jaguars passing game. We just need 10 points, Laviska!

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Michael Pittman, Gabriel Davis

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – No need to say anything.
Darren Waller ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – The only tight-end that is anything close to the fantasy producer Kelce is. I’d much rather have Kelce at the slightly higher price-tag, but this should be a great game environment in Atlanta for Darren Waller.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD) – Really my only “value” tight-end this week.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed

Defense / Special Teams

Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants
Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Nyheim Hines
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Laviska Shenault
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Brian Hill
DST: Broncos

3 years ago 0 comment

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